Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $102.28M
• Dividend Yield: 3.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.84K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.33
• Revenue Growth: 0.99%
• EPS Growth: -16.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 94
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 6,375,020
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,911
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,842
• PEG Ratio: -1.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.35
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.00 ▲(11.80% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is driven primarily by steady but cooling fundamentals (strong cash flow and profitability offset by margin compression and higher leverage), supported by a constructive technical trend and reasonable valuation with a solid dividend. The latest earnings commentary adds a modest positive tilt due to improving credit metrics and potential margin expansion, tempered by loan growth headwinds from elevated payoffs and repricing uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

FCF conversion near 96% of net income indicates high earnings quality and persistent internal funding. This durable cash generation supports dividends, buybacks, and organic investment without heavy external financing, improving resilience and optionality over the next several quarters.

Improving asset quality

NPAs at 0.08%, a recovery to credit losses and no early delinquencies signal disciplined underwriting and low credit volatility. Sustained low problem assets reduces expected loan loss provisioning and preserves capital, supporting stable earnings through economic cycles.

Higher-yielding new production

New loans earning materially higher yields than the legacy portfolio create a structural path to margin expansion as higher-yield production replaces lower-yield assets and management can reprice funding. This supports sustainable net interest income growth if originations persist.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Debt-to-equity near 1.67, up from ~0.66–0.79 previously, meaningfully reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Higher leverage constrains the bank's capacity to absorb shocks, raises funding sensitivity, and limits strategic optionality like significant organic growth or larger capital returns.

Payoffs offsetting originations

Elevated payoffs that exceeded originations reduced interest-earning assets and capped loan book growth. If payoff trends persist, recurring net interest income growth will be constrained and the bank may struggle to scale core lending revenues despite a healthy origination pipeline.

Capital returns exceed quarterly earnings

Distributions at 170% of quarterly net income are shareholder-friendly but strain retained earnings and the capital buffer. Over several quarters, this pace could weaken loss absorbency or force reductions in buybacks/dividends if earnings soften, limiting long-term capital flexibility.

Provident Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) is a financial services company primarily engaged in the banking sector. The company operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Provident Savings Bank, which offers a range of financial products and services, including residential and commercial real estate loans, consumer loans, and deposit accounts. Headquartered in Riverside, California, PROV serves a diverse customer base and focuses on providing personalized banking solutions while maintaining a commitment to community involvement and support.

How the Company Makes Money

Provident Financial Holdings generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and fees associated with its banking services. A significant portion of its earnings comes from the interest charged on various loan products, including mortgages, home equity lines of credit, and commercial loans. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income from service fees, transaction fees, and other banking-related activities. The bank's ability to attract deposits at competitive interest rates plays a crucial role in its funding strategy, allowing it to lend funds effectively. Partnerships with local businesses and real estate agencies also enhance its market reach and contribute to the company's overall revenue generation.

Provident Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitable and stable with strong cash flow conversion (FCF ~96% of net income) and solid margins, but fundamentals have cooled versus prior years with flat TTM revenue growth, net margin compression, and higher leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.67) keeping balance-sheet flexibility and ROE modest.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show stable profitability with solid gross and operating margins (gross margin ~68%, EBIT margin ~16%, net margin ~11%). However, the earnings profile has softened versus prior years: annual net margin fell from ~17% (2023) and ~23% (2022) to ~10–13% (2025/TTM), and revenue growth has decelerated sharply (TTM ~0% vs. strong growth in 2023–2024). Overall: profitable and stable, but momentum has cooled and margins have compressed.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningfully higher than earlier periods: debt-to-equity is ~1.67 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (vs. ~0.66–0.79 in 2021–2022), which reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Equity has stayed relatively steady (~$127–130M), while return on equity is modest at ~5% in TTM, down from ~6–7% in 2022–2023. Asset levels are stable, but the higher leverage and lower returns keep the balance sheet score in the mid-range.

Cash Flow

Cash generation looks strong and supportive of earnings quality: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~$9.5M) and free cash flow (~$9.2M) both exceed net income conversion expectations, with free cash flow running at ~96% of net income. Free cash flow growth is also very strong in the TTM period (positive double-digit growth), rebounding from the weaker 2024 free-cash-flow performance. Main watch-out: operating cash flow coverage is reported inconsistently/very low in the data, so debt service comfort can’t be fully validated from the provided figures.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	60.14M	60.16M	58.67M	50.07M	39.45M	39.77M
Gross Profit	40.80M	39.67M	38.93M	40.69M	38.77M	35.92M
EBITDA	12.22M	12.36M	13.54M	15.60M	17.71M	16.45M
Net Income	6.60M	6.25M	7.35M	8.59M	9.09M	7.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.23B	1.25B	1.27B	1.33B	1.19B	1.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	153.27M	53.16M	53.23M	68.00M	26.09M	73.86M
Total Debt	213.06M	213.07M	238.50M	235.01M	85.00M	100.98M
Total Liabilities	1.10B	1.12B	1.14B	1.20B	1.06B	1.06B
Stockholders Equity	127.49M	128.54M	129.94M	129.69M	128.65M	127.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.18M	8.15M	4.10M	15.58M	11.63M	11.35M
Operating Cash Flow	9.52M	8.69M	5.68M	16.32M	11.79M	11.57M
Investing Cash Flow	35.16M	26.46M	45.06M	-109.90M	-51.75M	-55.87M
Financing Cash Flow	-35.84M	-33.43M	-65.22M	136.01M	-6.90M	-1.47M

Provident Financial Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PROV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.09, above the 50-day MA of 15.98, and above the 200-day MA of 15.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PROV.

Provident Financial Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MGYR	75 Outperform	$116.93M	10.53	8.51%	1.81%	12.08%	27.88%
UNB	74 Outperform	$110.53M	9.79	15.11%	6.08%	14.52%	27.90%
PROV	69 Neutral	$102.28M	16.16	4.68%	3.50%	0.99%	-16.23%
AUBN	69 Neutral	$86.47M	12.17	8.22%	4.16%	24.17%	739.42%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
RVSB	57 Neutral	$110.60M	22.95	2.90%	1.51%	8.77%	369.81%
PBHC	54 Neutral	$82.55M	-14.03	2.26%	2.86%	0.84%	―

Provident Financial Holdings Corporate Events

Provident Financial Holdings Posts Higher Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings

On January 27, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings reported results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, covering the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The company posted net income of $1.44 million, or $0.22 per diluted share, down 15% from the prior quarter but 65% higher than the same period a year earlier, as improved net interest income and a recovery of credit losses offset higher non-interest expenses, including a non-recurring $214,000 mediation settlement. For the six months ended December 31, 2025, net income rose 12% year over year to $3.12 million, driven by higher recoveries of credit losses and increased net interest income, partly offset by higher taxes and operating costs. Key balance sheet metrics showed modest contraction, with loans held for investment slipping 1% to $1.04 billion and total deposits declining 2% to $872.4 million since June 30, 2025, while asset quality remained strong as non-performing assets fell to 0.08% of total assets. Net interest margin improved to 3.03% from 2.91% a year earlier on better yields for interest-earning assets and lower funding costs, despite a slight reduction in average interest-earning assets, underscoring management’s focus on disciplined pricing and cost control in a competitive rate environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (PROV) stock is a Hold with a $17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Holdings stock, see the PROV Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On January 22, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share for shareholders of its common stock. Investors of record at the close of business on February 12, 2026 will receive the dividend, which is scheduled to be paid on March 5, 2026, underscoring the company’s ongoing commitment to returning capital to shareholders and signaling management’s confidence in the bank’s financial position and earnings stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (PROV) stock is a Hold with a $17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Holdings stock, see the PROV Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Launches New 5% Share Repurchase Program

On January 22, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had authorized a new stock repurchase program for up to five percent of the company’s common stock, or approximately 318,875 shares. The buyback, set to begin on January 23, 2026, will be executed over the following year through open-market purchases or privately negotiated transactions, with the pace and scale determined by market conditions, the company’s capital needs and available cash. At the same time, the company canceled its January 2025 stock repurchase program effective January 23, 2026, leaving 16,825 previously authorized shares that will no longer be repurchased, signaling a refreshed capital management approach that may affect share liquidity and capital allocation priorities for existing investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (PROV) stock is a Hold with a $17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Holdings stock, see the PROV Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

Provident Financial Holdings held its virtual Annual Meeting of Shareholders on November 20, 2025, where 88.20% of eligible votes were represented. Shareholders elected three directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche, LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (PROV) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Holdings stock, see the PROV Stock Forecast page.