Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $105.14M
• Dividend Yield: 3.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.84K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.32
• Revenue Growth: 0.99%
• EPS Growth: -16.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 94
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 6,474,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,911
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,842
• PEG Ratio: -1.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.51
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.43
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.00 ▲(5.59% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by moderate financial performance (solid margins and strong free cash flow growth, but declining revenue and high leverage), supported by mildly positive technicals. Valuation is neutral with a supportive dividend, while the latest earnings call was cautiously optimistic due to improving net interest margin offset by asset-quality and loan-growth headwinds.

Positive Factors

Net interest margin expansion

A rising net interest margin indicates the core lending business is earning more on assets than it pays on funding. Sustained NIM expansion improves recurring net interest income and cash generation, supporting profitability even if loan growth is modest, given prudent underwriting.

Strong free cash flow generation

Robust free cash flow growth and a high conversion ratio show the bank reliably turns accounting earnings into distributable cash. That strengthens capital allocation flexibility for dividends, buybacks, or balance sheet strengthening over multiple quarters.

Solid capital and active capital returns

A strong CET1 ratio provides a capital buffer versus regulatory minima, while the board's resumed buyback and steady dividend signal management confidence and disciplined capital allocation. This combination supports resilience and shareholder returns through cycles.

Negative Factors

High leverage on the balance sheet

Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to funding and interest-rate stress, constraining strategic flexibility. With a relatively low equity base, earnings shocks or higher provisioning could quickly erode capital cushions and limit the bank's ability to expand lending or absorb losses.

Declining lending and deposit volumes

Contraction in loans and deposits reduces scale for net interest income and fee income, making margin gains harder to sustain long term. Persistent shrinkage limits balance-sheet leverage to generate earnings, placing more reliance on margin improvement and cost control.

Rising nonperforming assets

An uptick in nonperforming assets indicates emerging credit stress that can require higher provisions and impair earnings. Coupled with elevated leverage, worsening asset quality could pressure capital and constrain growth initiatives until credit trends stabilize.

Provident Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) is a financial services company primarily engaged in the banking sector. The company operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Provident Savings Bank, which offers a range of financial products and services, including residential and commercial real estate loans, consumer loans, and deposit accounts. Headquartered in Riverside, California, PROV serves a diverse customer base and focuses on providing personalized banking solutions while maintaining a commitment to community involvement and support.

How the Company Makes Money

Provident Financial Holdings generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and fees associated with its banking services. A significant portion of its earnings comes from the interest charged on various loan products, including mortgages, home equity lines of credit, and commercial loans. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income from service fees, transaction fees, and other banking-related activities. The bank's ability to attract deposits at competitive interest rates plays a crucial role in its funding strategy, allowing it to lend funds effectively. Partnerships with local businesses and real estate agencies also enhance its market reach and contribute to the company's overall revenue generation.

Provident Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderate fundamentals: stable profitability (net margin 10.17%, EBIT margin 15.03%) and strong free cash flow growth (+78.5%) are positives, but revenue decline (-2.5%) and elevated leverage (debt-to-equity 1.66) with modest ROE (4.69%) cap the score.

Income Statement

Provident Financial Holdings shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth at -2.5%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a reasonable net profit margin of 10.17% and an EBIT margin of 15.03%, reflecting stable profitability. The gross profit margin is healthy at 49.65%, although it has decreased from previous periods. Overall, the company demonstrates moderate profitability but faces challenges in revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.66, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks in a rising interest rate environment. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 4.69%, suggesting limited efficiency in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio stands at 10.43%, showing a relatively low proportion of equity financing. While the company is managing its assets, the high leverage is a potential concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 78.5% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 95.84%, suggesting effective conversion of profits into cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating potential issues in cash flow management. Overall, the cash flow position is robust, with some areas for improvement in operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	60.14M	60.16M	58.67M	50.07M	39.45M	39.77M
Gross Profit	39.82M	39.67M	38.93M	40.69M	38.77M	35.92M
EBITDA	12.31M	12.36M	13.54M	15.60M	17.71M	16.45M
Net Income	6.04M	6.25M	7.35M	8.59M	9.09M	7.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.23B	1.25B	1.27B	1.33B	1.19B	1.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	49.66M	53.16M	53.23M	68.00M	26.09M	73.86M
Total Debt	213.07M	213.07M	238.50M	235.01M	85.00M	100.98M
Total Liabilities	1.10B	1.12B	1.14B	1.20B	1.06B	1.06B
Stockholders Equity	128.37M	128.54M	129.94M	129.69M	128.65M	127.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.22M	8.15M	4.10M	15.58M	11.63M	11.35M
Operating Cash Flow	8.62M	8.69M	5.68M	16.32M	11.79M	11.57M
Investing Cash Flow	25.91M	26.46M	45.06M	-109.90M	-51.75M	-55.87M
Financing Cash Flow	-33.31M	-33.43M	-65.22M	136.01M	-6.90M	-1.47M

Provident Financial Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PROV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.12, above the 50-day MA of 15.87, and above the 200-day MA of 15.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PROV.

Provident Financial Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UNB	74 Outperform	$114.70M	10.30	15.11%	6.08%	14.52%	27.90%
MGYR	72 Outperform	$114.98M	10.28	8.51%	1.81%	12.08%	27.88%
AUBN	69 Neutral	$90.63M	12.36	8.22%	4.16%	24.17%	739.42%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
PROV	64 Neutral	$105.14M	16.25	4.68%	3.50%	0.99%	-16.23%
RVSB	61 Neutral	$112.47M	23.64	2.90%	1.51%	8.77%	369.81%
PBHC	54 Neutral	$80.89M	-13.75	2.26%	2.86%	0.84%	―

Provident Financial Holdings Corporate Events

Provident Financial Holdings Posts Higher Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings

On January 27, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings reported results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, covering the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The company posted net income of $1.44 million, or $0.22 per diluted share, down 15% from the prior quarter but 65% higher than the same period a year earlier, as improved net interest income and a recovery of credit losses offset higher non-interest expenses, including a non-recurring $214,000 mediation settlement. For the six months ended December 31, 2025, net income rose 12% year over year to $3.12 million, driven by higher recoveries of credit losses and increased net interest income, partly offset by higher taxes and operating costs. Key balance sheet metrics showed modest contraction, with loans held for investment slipping 1% to $1.04 billion and total deposits declining 2% to $872.4 million since June 30, 2025, while asset quality remained strong as non-performing assets fell to 0.08% of total assets. Net interest margin improved to 3.03% from 2.91% a year earlier on better yields for interest-earning assets and lower funding costs, despite a slight reduction in average interest-earning assets, underscoring management’s focus on disciplined pricing and cost control in a competitive rate environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (PROV) stock is a Hold with a $17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Holdings stock, see the PROV Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On January 22, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share for shareholders of its common stock. Investors of record at the close of business on February 12, 2026 will receive the dividend, which is scheduled to be paid on March 5, 2026, underscoring the company’s ongoing commitment to returning capital to shareholders and signaling management’s confidence in the bank’s financial position and earnings stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (PROV) stock is a Hold with a $17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Holdings stock, see the PROV Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Launches New 5% Share Repurchase Program

On January 22, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had authorized a new stock repurchase program for up to five percent of the company’s common stock, or approximately 318,875 shares. The buyback, set to begin on January 23, 2026, will be executed over the following year through open-market purchases or privately negotiated transactions, with the pace and scale determined by market conditions, the company’s capital needs and available cash. At the same time, the company canceled its January 2025 stock repurchase program effective January 23, 2026, leaving 16,825 previously authorized shares that will no longer be repurchased, signaling a refreshed capital management approach that may affect share liquidity and capital allocation priorities for existing investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (PROV) stock is a Hold with a $17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Holdings stock, see the PROV Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

Provident Financial Holdings held its virtual Annual Meeting of Shareholders on November 20, 2025, where 88.20% of eligible votes were represented. Shareholders elected three directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche, LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (PROV) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Holdings stock, see the PROV Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Holdings Reports Q1 Fiscal 2026 Results

On October 28, 2025, Provident Financial Holdings reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, ending September 30, 2025. The company achieved a net income of $1.68 million, marking a 3% increase from the previous quarter but a 12% decrease from the same period last year. The net interest margin improved to 3.00%, and the company saw a significant recovery from credit losses due to lower mortgage interest rates. However, total deposits and loans held for investment slightly declined. The company continues its stock buyback program and maintains a consistent cash dividend, with expectations of improving fundamentals despite challenges in balance sheet growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (PROV) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Holdings stock, see the PROV Stock Forecast page.