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Provident Financial Holdings, Inc (PROV)
NASDAQ:PROV
US Market
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Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) AI Stock Analysis

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PROV

Provident Financial Holdings

(NASDAQ:PROV)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(10.34% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
Overall score is supported by stable (though softened) financial performance and a constructive price trend above major moving averages. The latest earnings call adds a positive tilt due to NIM expansion, expected loan yield tailwinds, and strong asset quality, partially offset by funding cost/repricing risk and only modest balance-sheet growth. Valuation and dividend are reasonable but not a major standout based on the provided P/E and yield.
Positive Factors
Asset Quality
Extremely low NPAs and a healthy allowance indicate limited credit deterioration risk, reducing provisioning volatility and supporting predictable earnings and capital retention. Strong credit metrics underpin durable profitability and regulatory capital stability over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Modest Loan Growth
Very limited balance-sheet expansion constrains the company's ability to scale net interest income and fee revenue. Even with strong originations, weak aggregate loan growth limits operating leverage and revenue momentum, capping medium-term earnings upside.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset Quality
Extremely low NPAs and a healthy allowance indicate limited credit deterioration risk, reducing provisioning volatility and supporting predictable earnings and capital retention. Strong credit metrics underpin durable profitability and regulatory capital stability over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors

Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Provident Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B. that provides community banking and financial services in Southern California, the United States. The company offers deposit products, such ...
How the Company Makes Money
Provident Financial Holdings primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning interest income on loans and other interest-earning assets and paying interest on deposits and other funding sources, with the difference recorded as net ...

Provident Financial Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q4-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operating and financial picture: net interest margin expanded, loan yields and originations rose, asset quality strengthened (nonperforming assets declined and no early delinquencies), and the franchise remains well-capitalized with active capital returns. Offsetting risks include modest absolute loan growth, competitive deposit costs and upcoming wholesale funding repricing that may pressure funding costs, and some volatility from prepayment-related amortization. On balance the positives (margin expansion, improving yields, strong credit metrics, and capital actions) outweigh the headwinds.
Positive Updates
Net Interest Margin Expansion
NIM increased 8 basis points sequentially to 3.21% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, driven by a 7 basis-point increase in the yield on interest-earning assets and a 4 basis-point decrease in the cost of total interest-bearing liabilities; net deferred loan cost amortization contributed approximately +3 basis points in the quarter (versus -7 bps in prior quarter).
Negative Updates
Modest Absolute Loan Growth
Despite increased originations and lower prepayments, overall loan growth was modest at approximately $3 million for the quarter, indicating limited balance sheet expansion in absolute terms.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Negative
Net Interest Margin Expansion
NIM increased 8 basis points sequentially to 3.21% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, driven by a 7 basis-point increase in the yield on interest-earning assets and a 4 basis-point decrease in the cost of total interest-bearing liabilities; net deferred loan cost amortization contributed approximately +3 basis points in the quarter (versus -7 bps in prior quarter).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to disciplined balance‑sheet growth with loan originations in the September 2026 quarter expected at the upper end of the recent $29M–$46M range and continued moderation in prepayments after $46.4M of June quarter originations (+5% QoQ) and $43.5M of payoffs (‑16% QoQ); about $133M of loans will reprice in September, expected to rise ~79 bps to a 7.10% weighted average (from 6.31%), new loans in June carried a 6.03% avg rate versus the portfolio 5.31%, and management expects any NIM expansion (NIM was 3.21%, +8 bps QoQ) to be driven by higher loan yields even as deposit costs (avg 1.36%, +3 bps) and $81.7M of wholesale funding maturing at a 4.05% weighted rate will likely reprice at comparable or somewhat higher costs; they will maintain the cash dividend and share repurchases (≈90,000 shares for ~$1.5M) — total capital returns were ~110% of the June quarter’s net income — while capital ratios remain well above “well‑capitalized,” operating expenses were $7.7M, FTEs were 158, and credit metrics stayed strong (NPAs $505k or 4 bps of assets, ACL/gross loans 57 bps, $95k recovery, CRE exposure $33.3M or 3.2% of loans HFI with only 4 CRE loans totaling $818k maturing in FY27).

Provident Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are steady but not accelerating: TTM revenue is slightly down (~-1.3%) and profitability has compressed versus 2022–2023 (TTM net margin ~10.3%). Cash conversion is solid (FCF ~96% of net income) but FCF is down ~15% YoY. Balance sheet leverage is elevated though improving (debt-to-equity ~1.45), while ROE is modest (~4.8%).
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue59.38M60.16M58.67M50.07M39.45M39.77M
Gross Profit39.84M39.67M38.93M40.69M38.77M35.92M
EBITDA12.94M12.36M13.54M15.60M17.71M16.45M
Net Income6.10M6.25M7.35M8.59M9.09M7.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.22B1.25B1.27B1.33B1.19B1.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments57.13M53.16M53.23M68.00M26.09M73.86M
Total Debt186.31M213.07M238.50M235.01M85.00M100.98M
Total Liabilities1.09B1.12B1.14B1.20B1.06B1.06B
Stockholders Equity126.57M128.54M129.94M129.69M128.65M127.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.63M8.15M4.10M15.58M11.63M11.35M
Operating Cash Flow8.09M8.69M5.68M16.32M11.79M11.57M
Investing Cash Flow46.98M26.46M45.06M-109.90M-51.75M-55.87M
Financing Cash Flow-48.85M-33.43M-65.22M136.01M-6.90M-1.47M

Provident Financial Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price17.22
Price Trends
50DMA
17.15
Positive
100DMA
16.86
Positive
200DMA
16.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Positive
RSI
55.16
Neutral
STOCH
57.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PROV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.28, above the 50-day MA of 17.15, and above the 200-day MA of 16.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PROV.

Provident Financial Holdings Risk Analysis

Provident Financial Holdings disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Provident Financial Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Provident Financial Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$123.76M10.089.80%1.81%7.51%21.12%
76
Outperform
$91.35M10.859.30%4.06%-1.67%26.05%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
66
Neutral
$111.07M17.245.23%3.25%-0.79%11.59%
59
Neutral
$106.26M8.822.69%5.81%7.05%28.58%
58
Neutral
$106.85M-27.72-2.73%1.52%-11.21%-176.24%
56
Neutral
$102.29M-74.32-3.21%2.50%-7.07%151.23%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PROV
Provident Financial Holdings
17.76
3.01
20.38%
AUBN
Auburn National Bancorporation
26.15
0.75
2.96%
MGYR
Magyar Bancorp
19.15
2.40
14.34%
PBHC
Pathfinder Bancorp
16.35
2.38
16.99%
RVSB
Riverview Bancorp
5.30
0.51
10.72%
UNB
Union Bankshares
23.03
-1.92
-7.71%

Provident Financial Holdings Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Provident Financial Holdings Reports Strong Quarterly Earnings Growth
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
Provident Financial Holdings reported that for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, net income rose 61% sequentially and 34% year over year to $2.18 million, with diluted EPS of $0.35, driven by a recovery of credit losses, higher non-interest income ...
Dividends
Provident Financial Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc., the parent of Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B., operates as a California-based banking company focused on deposit and lending services, primarily serving customers in its regional market. Its common stock trades o...
Executive/Board Changes
Provident Financial Names CEO to Board, New Lending Chief
Neutral
Jul 24, 2026
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc., the parent of Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B., announced that President and Chief Executive Officer Donavon P. Ternes will join the Boards of Directors of both the corporation and the bank beginning July 23, 2026...
Executive/Board Changes
Provident Financial Announces Retirement of Chief Lending Officer
Neutral
May 28, 2026
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc., the holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B., announced that Senior Vice President and Chief Lending Officer David S. Weiant will retire and resign from his position effective July 15, 2026. His retire...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 30, 2026