Provident Financial Holdings, Inc (PROV)
NASDAQ:PROV
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Provident Financial Holdings
(NASDAQ:PROV)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(11.80% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/07/26
The score is driven primarily by steady but cooling fundamentals (strong cash flow and profitability offset by margin compression and higher leverage), supported by a constructive technical trend and reasonable valuation with a solid dividend. The latest earnings commentary adds a modest positive tilt due to improving credit metrics and potential margin expansion, tempered by loan growth headwinds from elevated payoffs and repricing uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
FCF conversion near 96% of net income indicates high earnings quality and persistent internal funding. This durable cash generation supports dividends, buybacks, and organic investment without heavy external financing, improving resilience and optionality over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt-to-equity near 1.67, up from ~0.66–0.79 previously, meaningfully reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Higher leverage constrains the bank's capacity to absorb shocks, raises funding sensitivity, and limits strategic optionality like significant organic growth or larger capital returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
FCF conversion near 96% of net income indicates high earnings quality and persistent internal funding. This durable cash generation supports dividends, buybacks, and organic investment without heavy external financing, improving resilience and optionality over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$109.40M
Dividend Yield3.5%
Average Volume (3M)8.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.9
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth0.99%
EPS Growth-16.23%
CountryUS
Employees94
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding6,375,020
10 Day Avg. Volume9,911
30 Day Avg. Volume8,842
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.36
Price to Book (P/B)0.81
Price to Sales (P/S)1.73
P/FCF Ratio12.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.91
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$40.50M
Provident Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) is a financial services company primarily engaged in the banking sector. The company operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Provident Savings Bank, which offers a range of financial products and ser...
How the Company Makes Money
Provident Financial Holdings generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and fees associated with its banking services. A significant portion of its earnings comes from the interest charged on various loan products, including mo...
Provident Financial Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted several positive operational and financial trends — stronger loan originations, improved asset quality, slightly higher net interest margin, lower funding costs, and solid capital positions with ongoing shareholder returns. These positives were partially offset by elevated loan payoffs that reduced quarter-end loan balances and pressured NIM through accelerated deferred cost amortization, a modest rise in operating expenses (including a settlement), and some uncertainty around loan repricing in June 2026 that could affect growth. On balance, the company appears fundamentally stable with opportunities for margin improvement, but near-term growth is subject to payoff and repricing dynamics.Positive Updates
Strong Increase in Loan Originations
Originations of loans held for investment were $42.1M in the quarter, a 42% increase from $29.6M in the prior sequential quarter, and loan pipelines are moderately higher suggesting March 2026 originations within the recent range of $28M–$42M.
Negative Updates
High Loan Payoffs Offsetting Originations
Loan principal payments and payoffs were $46.7M, up 35% from $34.5M in the prior quarter, which more than offset higher originations and resulted in loans held for investment declining by approximately $4.1M for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Increase in Loan Originations
Originations of loans held for investment were $42.1M in the quarter, a 42% increase from $29.6M in the prior sequential quarter, and loan pipelines are moderately higher suggesting March 2026 originations within the recent range of $28M–$42M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that loan origination momentum continued—$42.1M originated in the December quarter (up 42% vs. $29.6M sequentially) but was offset by $46.7M of principal payments/payoffs (up 35% vs. $34.5M), leaving loans held for investment down about $4.1M; pipelines suggest March quarter originations likely within the recent $28M–$42M range. Asset quality remains strong with nonperforming assets of $990k (8 bps of total assets, down from $1.9M), no early-stage delinquencies, a $158k recovery to credit losses, and an allowance for credit losses to gross loans HFI of 55 bps (vs. 56 bps); CRE office exposure is $36.7M (3.5% of loans HFI) and only six CRE loans totaling $2.8M mature for the remainder of fiscal 2026. Margin and funding dynamics point to upside: net interest margin rose 3 bps to 3.03%, deposit cost fell to 1.32% (down 2 bps), borrowing cost fell 20 bps to 4.39%, though net deferred loan cost amortization reduced NIM by ~5 bps; loans originated carried a 6.15% weighted average rate vs. 5.22% for the portfolio, ~ $112.2M of loans reprice in March to an expected 6.85% (14 bps lower) and ~$125.2M reprice in June to an expected 6.49% (38 bps higher), while ~$109M and ~$79.5M of wholesale funding (ex-overnight) mature in March and June at weighted rates of 4.12% and 4.15% respectively—management expects to reprice these lower and sees an opportunity for NIM expansion in March. Operating and capital guidance: FTEs 163, operating expenses $7.9M in the quarter (including a $214k pre‑litigation settlement) with an expected run rate of ~$7.6M–$7.7M/quarter, and capital returns continuing (Dec quarter dividends $906k and buybacks ~ $1.5M, plus ~$96k repurchased in December), representing a 170% distribution of the December quarter’s net income.Provident Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 60.14M | 60.16M | 58.67M | 50.07M | 39.45M | 39.77M |
| Gross Profit | 40.80M | 39.67M | 38.93M | 40.69M | 38.77M | 35.92M |
| EBITDA | 12.22M | 12.36M | 13.54M | 15.60M | 17.71M | 16.45M |
| Net Income | 6.60M | 6.25M | 7.35M | 8.59M | 9.09M | 7.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.23B | 1.25B | 1.27B | 1.33B | 1.19B | 1.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 153.27M | 53.16M | 53.23M | 68.00M | 26.09M | 73.86M |
| Total Debt | 213.06M | 213.07M | 238.50M | 235.01M | 85.00M | 100.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.10B | 1.12B | 1.14B | 1.20B | 1.06B | 1.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 127.49M | 128.54M | 129.94M | 129.69M | 128.65M | 127.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.18M | 8.15M | 4.10M | 15.58M | 11.63M | 11.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.52M | 8.69M | 5.68M | 16.32M | 11.79M | 11.57M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 35.16M | 26.46M | 45.06M | -109.90M | -51.75M | -55.87M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -35.84M | -33.43M | -65.22M | 136.01M | -6.90M | -1.47M |
Provident Financial Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
16.10
Price Trends
16.16
Positive
15.90
Positive
15.56
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Negative
76.58
Negative
91.10
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PROV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.29, below the 50-day MA of 16.16, and above the 200-day MA of 15.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.58 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PROV.
Provident Financial Holdings Risk Analysis
Provident Financial Holdings disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Provident Financial Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Provident Financial Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $115.83M | 8.58 | 9.18% | 1.81% | 12.08% | 27.88% | |
69 Neutral | $109.40M | 17.90 | 4.68% | 3.50% | 0.99% | -16.23% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $82.96M | 12.98 | 8.27% | 4.16% | 24.17% | 739.42% | |
60 Neutral | $116.81M | 18.92 | 2.98% | 1.51% | 8.77% | 369.81% | |
53 Neutral | $112.68M | 9.78 | 14.80% | 6.08% | 14.52% | 27.90% | |
51 Neutral | $85.84M | -25.99 | -2.75% | 2.86% | 0.84% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
PROV
Provident Financial Holdings
17.13
3.62
26.84%
AUBN
Auburn National Bancorporation
23.75
4.42
22.85%
MGYR
Magyar Bancorp
17.88
4.44
33.03%
PBHC
Pathfinder Bancorp
13.72
-1.48
-9.74%
RVSB
Riverview Bancorp
5.64
0.03
0.61%
UNB
Union Bankshares
24.42
-2.26
-8.48%
Provident Financial Holdings Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Provident Financial Holdings Posts Higher Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings reported results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, covering the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The company posted net income of $1.44 million, or $0.22 per diluted share, down 15% from the p...
Dividends
Provident Financial Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Jan 23, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share for shareholders of its common stock. Investors of record at the close of business on February 12, ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Provident Financial Launches New 5% Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Jan 23, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had authorized a new stock repurchase program for up to five percent of the company’s common stock, or approximately 318,875 shares. The buyback, s...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Provident Financial Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Nov 21, 2025
Provident Financial Holdings held its virtual Annual Meeting of Shareholders on November 20, 2025, where 88.20% of eligible votes were represented. Shareholders elected three directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified the appointment...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.