Packaging (PKG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.68B
• Dividend Yield: 2.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 620.49K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 8.98%
• EPS Growth: 25.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,400
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 2.48
• Shares Outstanding: 89,978,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 511,611
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 620,488
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.80
• 1Y Price Target: $217.00
• Price Target Upside: 12.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $222.00 ▲(14.78% Upside)

PKG's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and strategic initiatives, including the acquisition of Greif's containerboard business. While technical indicators suggest some short-term weakness, the company's valuation and corporate events support a positive long-term outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings

PKG's July billings rose 2% year-over-year, likely outperforming the industry.

Market Share

Following the GEF acquisition, PKG's recycled mix will increase from 20% to 30%, enhancing market share.

Operational Efficiency

The Glendale, AZ box plant started up ahead of schedule and below budget, improving PKG's market service capacity.

Negative Factors

Export Challenges

Exports are softer, notably to China, with a reduction of 1,200 tons a month.

Market Competition

High operating rates in the industry have historically attracted new entrants, which could be negative for PKG.

Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Packaging (PKG) is a leading provider of innovative packaging solutions, catering to various sectors including food and beverage, consumer goods, and industrial markets. The company specializes in designing and manufacturing sustainable packaging products that enhance product safety, shelf life, and consumer appeal. With a commitment to environmental responsibility, PKG focuses on developing eco-friendly materials and advanced packaging technologies that meet the evolving needs of its customers.

How the Company Makes Money

PKG generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its packaging products to a diverse range of industries. Key revenue streams include the sale of custom packaging solutions, stock packaging items, and specialty products tailored to specific client requirements. The company also benefits from long-term contracts with major clients, ensuring a steady income flow. Additionally, PKG engages in strategic partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers to optimize its supply chain and reduce costs, further enhancing profitability. The growing demand for sustainable packaging solutions in response to environmental concerns has also contributed to increased sales, positioning PKG favorably in the market.

Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Packaging has demonstrated strong financial performance across all verticals, with robust revenue growth, stable profitability, and effective cash flow management. The company maintains a solid balance sheet with manageable debt levels, supporting its long-term financial health. While leverage is slightly higher, the overall financial health remains strong, positioning the company well for future growth and stability in the Packaging & Containers industry.

Income Statement

The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from the previous years. The gross profit margin and EBIT margin indicate healthy profitability, while net profit margin remains stable. Overall, the income statement reflects robust growth and profitability metrics, highlighting effective cost management and revenue expansion.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a solid equity foundation with a healthy equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity is strong, suggesting effective use of equity capital. However, the slight increase in total debt warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

The company exhibits solid cash flow performance, with consistent free cash flow generation and a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio. Free cash flow growth is stable, reflecting effective cash management and reinvestment strategies. Overall, cash flow metrics indicate a strong ability to generate cash and sustain operations.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.38B	7.80B	8.48B	7.73B	6.66B
Gross Profit	1.78B	1.70B	2.09B	1.87B	1.37B
EBITDA	1.63B	1.59B	1.89B	1.68B	1.14B
Net Income	805.10M	765.20M	1.03B	841.10M	461.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.83B	8.68B	8.00B	7.84B	7.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	787.00M	1.14B	405.20M	704.80M	1.08B
Total Debt	2.77B	3.17B	2.79B	2.73B	2.74B
Total Liabilities	4.43B	4.68B	4.34B	4.23B	4.19B
Stockholders Equity	4.40B	4.00B	3.67B	3.61B	3.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	521.50M	845.40M	670.80M	489.00M	611.60M
Operating Cash Flow	1.19B	1.32B	1.50B	1.09B	1.03B
Investing Cash Flow	-277.80M	-875.10M	-833.70M	-794.40M	-426.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-876.40M	-112.00M	-960.00M	-655.60M	-311.60M

Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 193.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PKG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 193.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 198.64, below the 50-day MA of 196.81, and below the 200-day MA of 206.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PKG.

Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$17.68B	19.61	20.51%	2.59%	8.98%	25.81%
AMCR	72 Outperform	$20.19B	27.31	6.54%	5.79%	-2.29%	24.05%
CCK	72 Outperform	$11.76B	21.22	20.64%	1.02%	2.07%	32.37%
BALL	68 Neutral	$14.60B	25.05	9.59%	1.49%	-3.12%	―
SW	63 Neutral	$22.76B	66.13	2.91%	3.65%	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.23B	11.51	-5.97%	3.09%	1.47%	-15.79%
IP	56 Neutral	$25.22B	46.41	-0.20%	3.97%	18.13%	-106.71%

Packaging Corporate Events

Packaging Corp Announces $500M Senior Notes Offering

On August 11, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America priced a $500 million offering of 5.200% Senior Notes due 2035, with the issuance expected to close on August 15, 2025. The proceeds, estimated at $495.1 million after expenses, will be used to finance the acquisition of Greif, Inc.’s containerboard business. This strategic move aims to enhance the company’s market position, although the acquisition must be completed by June 30, 2026, or the notes will be subject to redemption.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Hold with a $221.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.

Packaging Corporation Secures $1.6 Billion Credit Agreements

On July 31, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) entered into two significant credit agreements, the Commercial Credit Agreement and the Farm Credit Agreement, totaling $1.6 billion. These agreements, which include unsecured term loan facilities and a revolving credit facility, are intended to support the company’s acquisition of Greif and replace an older credit agreement. The new credit arrangements are expected to enhance PCA’s financial flexibility and operational capabilities, with loans guaranteed by PCA’s material subsidiaries and subject to customary covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Hold with a $221.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.

Packaging Corp Acquires Greif’s Containerboard Business

On June 30, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the containerboard business of Greif, Inc. for $1.8 billion in cash. This acquisition, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, is subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals, and includes provisions for termination rights and indemnification, potentially impacting PCA’s market positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Hold with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.

Packaging Corporation Acquires Greif’s Containerboard Business

On July 1, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America announced its agreement to acquire the containerboard business of Greif, Inc. for $1.8 billion in cash. The acquisition, expected to close by the end of PCA’s third quarter, includes two containerboard mills and eight sheet feeder and corrugated plants across the U.S., which generated $1.2 billion in sales over the last 12 months. The deal is anticipated to bring $60 million in pre-tax synergies through operational efficiencies and increased integration, enhancing PCA’s growth strategy and shareholder value. The acquisition will be financed with $1.5 billion in new debt and cash, and is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings, with PCA’s pro forma leverage ratio estimated at 1.7X post-transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Hold with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.