Packaging (PKG)
NYSE:PKG
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Packaging
(NYSE:PKG)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$224.00
▲(5.54% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
PKG scores as moderately attractive primarily due to solid profitability and strong cash generation, reinforced by generally positive earnings-call demand/price and integration commentary. The score is held back by a weaker technical setup (downtrend/negative MACD) and higher balance-sheet risk from the 2025 leverage increase, while valuation is neutral-to-slightly expensive despite the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and FCF rebound
Consistently stronger operating cash flow and a sharp FCF rebound provide durable funding for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions and elevated capex. Reliable cash conversion also underpins earnings quality and reduces reliance on external financing over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Material increase in financial leverage
The jump in leverage meaningfully reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest‑cost risk, particularly with sizable ongoing capex and elevated net cash interest guidance. Higher leverage makes the company more sensitive to demand or margin shocks over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and FCF rebound
Consistently stronger operating cash flow and a sharp FCF rebound provide durable funding for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions and elevated capex. Reliable cash conversion also underpins earnings quality and reduces reliance on external financing over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Packaging (PKG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.94B
Dividend Yield2.42%
Average Volume (3M)1.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.1
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth7.23%
EPS Growth-3.88%
CountryUS
Employees15,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.32
Shares Outstanding89,213,394
10 Day Avg. Volume1,445,683
30 Day Avg. Volume1,129,025
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.02
Price to Book (P/B)4.04
Price to Sales (P/S)2.07
P/FCF Ratio25.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$243.20Price Target Upside14.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)10.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.21B
Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and corrugated packaging products in the United States. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various containerboard and corru...
Packaging Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across different business units, revealing which segments contribute most to growth and where there might be challenges or opportunities.
Breaks down sales across different business units, revealing which segments contribute most to growth and where there might be challenges or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPackaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial trajectory: revenue, EBITDA and full-year earnings excluding special items improved, margins (particularly in Packaging) expanded, cash generation and liquidity remain strong, and the company has made tangible integration and reliability gains at the acquired Greif mills. Management outlined constructive demand signals into 2026 (strong bookings and billings in January) and commercial actions (March price increase). Key negatives included one-time special charges ($1.19/sh), a slight decline in Q4 EPS excluding special items, elevated costs and planned outage costs for 2026, an inventory mismatch at acquired operations, weather-related disruptions, and continued high capital intensity. On balance the highlights outweigh the lowlights given strong cash flow, margin expansion, successful acquisition integration and improving demand trends.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth (Quarter & Full Year)
Q4 net sales increased to $2.4 billion from $2.1 billion a year ago (≈+14%). Full year 2025 net sales were $9.0 billion versus $8.4 billion in 2024 (≈+7%).
Negative Updates
Q4 GAAP Net Income and Special Items
Reported Q4 net income was $102 million ($1.13/share). Q4 included special-item expense of $1.19 per share (primarily Wallula restructuring, Greif acquisition/integration costs and corrugated facility closures) which materially reduced GAAP results.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth (Quarter & Full Year)
Q4 net sales increased to $2.4 billion from $2.1 billion a year ago (≈+14%). Full year 2025 net sales were $9.0 billion versus $8.4 billion in 2024 (≈+7%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided first-quarter 2026 EPS of $2.20 per share excluding special items, noted planned 2026 outages totaling about $1.39 per share (Q1 $0.16, Q2 $0.35, Q3 $0.24, Q4 $0.63), and provided full‑year 2026 framework: total CapEx $840–$870 million, DD&A ~ $700 million, book effective tax rate ~25%, dividend payments of ~$450 million, interest expense ~ $139 million (net cash interest ~ $147 million). Management expects to run mills at capacity, finish Wallula restructuring benefits beginning in March, end the quarter with slightly lower inventories, and capture only a partial benefit from the $70/ton linerboard/corrugated medium price increase effective March 1; they also noted ongoing cost inflation across most direct/indirect and converting costs (except fiber) and are engineering ~ $250 million of gas‑turbine energy projects (mostly 2027–28) with expected mid‑ to high‑teens returns.Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.99B | 8.38B | 7.80B | 8.48B | 7.73B |
| Gross Profit | 1.89B | 1.78B | 1.70B | 2.09B | 1.87B |
| EBITDA | 1.76B | 1.63B | 1.59B | 1.89B | 1.68B |
| Net Income | 768.90M | 805.10M | 765.20M | 1.03B | 841.10M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.92B | 8.83B | 8.68B | 8.00B | 7.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 600.80M | 787.00M | 1.14B | 405.20M | 704.80M |
| Total Debt | 4.36B | 2.77B | 3.17B | 2.79B | 2.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.33B | 4.43B | 4.68B | 4.34B | 4.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.60B | 4.40B | 4.00B | 3.67B | 3.61B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 728.60M | 521.50M | 845.40M | 670.80M | 489.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.56B | 1.19B | 1.32B | 1.50B | 1.09B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.57B | -277.80M | -875.10M | -833.70M | -794.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 859.40M | -876.40M | -112.00M | -960.00M | -655.60M |
Packaging Technical Analysis
Neutral
212.25
Price Trends
223.97
Negative
212.70
Negative
206.90
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.26
Positive
42.05
Neutral
68.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PKG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 212.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 216.78, below the 50-day MA of 223.97, and above the 200-day MA of 206.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PKG.
Packaging Risk Analysis
Packaging disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Packaging reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Acquisition Integration – The business may underperform relative to our expectations, and we may not be able to successfully integrate the business into our existing business. Q4, 2025
Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $11.28B | 16.16 | 25.41% | 1.01% | 2.94% | 893.70% | |
68 Neutral | $20.60B | 25.47 | 3.90% | 4.21% | ― | ― | |
66 Neutral | $15.77B | 15.93 | 16.89% | 1.53% | 2.87% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $18.94B | 24.15 | 16.73% | 2.42% | 7.23% | -3.88% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $17.84B | 27.28 | 6.12% | 6.20% | 28.41% | -35.50% | |
49 Neutral | $18.77B | -5.92 | -20.43% | 4.69% | 33.71% | -517.99% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PKG
Packaging
212.25
18.98
9.82%
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7.95
15.50%
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IP
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35.45
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-30.74%
SW
Smurfit Westrock
39.41
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AMCR
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38.62
-7.16
-15.65%
Packaging Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Packaging Corp announces leadership changes and board transition
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
On February 25, 2026, Packaging Corporation of America director Paul T. Stecko notified the board that he would retire and not stand for reelection at the 2026 Annual Meeting, with the board size to be reduced from ten to nine members, and the com...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.