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Packaging
(NYSE:PKG)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$284.00
â–²(11.64% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/08/26
PKG’s score is driven primarily by solid (but not peak) financial performance and strong bullish technical momentum. The earnings call adds support via pricing/volume momentum and acquisition synergy progress, while valuation (high P/E) and the balance-sheet leverage increase are the main constraints on the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Cash generation strength
Sustained operating cash flow (~$1.62B TTM) and meaningful free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, dividends, debt service and M&A, supporting strategic flexibility. Over 2–6 months this underpins the company’s ability to invest and absorb cyclical shocks without immediate financing stress.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A meaningful step-up in debt raises financial risk and reduces optionality for capital allocation. If margins or cash flow weaken, higher leverage limits ability to pursue bolt-on M&A, accelerate deleveraging, or maintain shareholder returns without refinancing or cutting discretionary spend.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation strength
Sustained operating cash flow (~$1.62B TTM) and meaningful free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, dividends, debt service and M&A, supporting strategic flexibility. Over 2–6 months this underpins the company’s ability to invest and absorb cyclical shocks without immediate financing stress.
Read all positive factors
Packaging Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and which may need improvement or strategic shifts.
Shows the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and which may need improvement or strategic shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPackaging (PKG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.54B
Dividend Yield2.1%
Average Volume (3M)658.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.5
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth10.35%
EPS Growth-23.16%
CountryUS
Employees16,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.73
Shares Outstanding89,098,300
10 Day Avg. Volume789,168
30 Day Avg. Volume658,584
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.97
Price to Book (P/B)4.04
Price to Sales (P/S)2.07
P/FCF Ratio25.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$275.43Price Target Upside8.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)10.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.06B
Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packa...
Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed solid operational momentum: strong corrugated demand (record shipments up ~24%), higher sales (+~13.6%) and EBITDA growth, an outperformance from the Greif acquisition with synergies on track, and improved paper margins. Offsetting this were persistent cost headwinds (notably elevated freight and recycled fiber costs), special items and restructuring charges (~$0.20/sh), some margin compression in packaging, and utility-related disruptions that cost production. Management provided constructive near-term guidance (Q3 EPS $2.91 ex-special items), clear plans to mitigate grid risk via gas turbines, and confirmed capital spend and synergy progress. On balance, the positive operational and strategic developments outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Net sales increased to $2.5 billion in Q2 2026 from $2.2 billion in Q2 2025 (≈+13.6%). Total company EBITDA (excluding special items) rose to $486 million from $451 million (≈+7.8%).
Negative Updates
Earnings Decline vs Prior Year (Excluding Special Items)
Adjusted Q2 2026 net income was $210 million ($2.35/share) vs $224 million ($2.48/share) in Q2 2025 — a decline of $14 million (≈-6.3%) and $0.13 per share (~-5.2%).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Net sales increased to $2.5 billion in Q2 2026 from $2.2 billion in Q2 2025 (≈+13.6%). Total company EBITDA (excluding special items) rose to $486 million from $451 million (≈+7.8%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided third-quarter 2026 EPS of $2.91 per share excluding special items, an effective tax rate of ~26%, and one additional shipping/mill operating day versus Q2, expecting corrugated/containerboard volumes to rise and most of the first announced price increase to be realized in Q3 (with the second increase beginning in August and split between Q3 and Q4). They reiterated full-year CapEx of $840–$870 million and D&A of ~$710 million, gave outage expense targets of $0.30 for Q3 and $0.63 for Q4 (Q2 was $0.34; full-year outage expense $1.41), and flagged continued elevated freight, rising recycled fiber and higher chemical/electricity costs (wood fiber and natural gas relatively flat) with some improvement in employee benefits in Q3. Additional operational guidance included one Riverville packaging outage in Q3, the International Falls paper outage in Q3 (lower paper volume/higher paper prices expected), continued Greif integration (to be folded into PCA reporting after Q3), and gas-turbine projects with Jackson targeted online next year and Riverville/DeRidder targeted in 2028.Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.53B | 8.99B | 8.38B | 7.80B | 8.48B | 7.73B |
| Gross Profit | 1.92B | 1.89B | 1.78B | 1.70B | 2.09B | 1.87B |
| EBITDA | 1.85B | 1.76B | 1.63B | 1.59B | 1.89B | 1.68B |
| Net Income | 691.00M | 768.90M | 805.10M | 765.20M | 1.03B | 841.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.02B | 10.92B | 8.83B | 8.68B | 8.00B | 7.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 593.80M | 600.80M | 787.00M | 1.14B | 405.20M | 704.80M |
| Total Debt | 4.40B | 4.36B | 2.77B | 3.17B | 2.79B | 2.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.35B | 6.33B | 4.43B | 4.68B | 4.34B | 4.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.66B | 4.60B | 4.40B | 4.00B | 3.67B | 3.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 742.40M | 728.60M | 521.50M | 845.40M | 670.80M | 489.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.62B | 1.56B | 1.19B | 1.32B | 1.50B | 1.09B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.76B | -2.57B | -277.80M | -875.10M | -833.70M | -794.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 794.20M | 859.40M | -876.40M | -112.00M | -960.00M | -655.60M |
Packaging Technical Analysis
Positive
254.39
Price Trends
238.75
Positive
226.07
Positive
218.50
Positive
Market Momentum
5.08
Positive
54.15
Neutral
37.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PKG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 254.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 251.08, above the 50-day MA of 238.75, and above the 200-day MA of 218.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PKG.
Packaging Risk Analysis
Packaging disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Packaging reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.64B | 16.83 | 26.54% | 1.01% | 10.76% | 45.91% | |
72 Outperform | $22.54B | 32.52 | 14.86% | 2.06% | 10.35% | -23.16% | |
70 Outperform | $16.19B | 17.33 | 17.04% | 1.25% | 16.86% | 64.01% | |
65 Neutral | $21.05B | 19.25 | 9.45% | 5.81% | 56.62% | 32.08% | |
62 Neutral | $25.00B | 48.41 | 2.73% | 3.64% | 1.69% | 42.09% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $21.32B | -6.17 | -22.39% | 4.39% | 10.34% | -7165.92% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PKG
Packaging
250.30
56.83
29.37%
BALL
Ball
61.67
9.30
17.75%
CCK
Crown Holdings
116.86
17.90
18.08%
IP
International Paper Co
40.05
-5.04
-11.17%
SW
Smurfit Westrock
47.30
5.89
14.22%
AMCR
Amcor
45.86
5.70
14.19%
Packaging Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Packaging Corporation Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Packaging Corporation of America held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders re-elected the company’s slate of director nominees, with most candidates receiving strong majority support despite a few draw...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.