Packaging (PKG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.31B
• Dividend Yield: 2.46%
• Average Volume (3M): 846.52K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 7.30%
• EPS Growth: 15.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,400
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 2.73
• Shares Outstanding: 89,977,066
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 743,056
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 846,518
• PEG Ratio: 4.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 38.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.81
• 1Y Price Target: $238.86
• Price Target Upside: 17.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.94
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.08B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $224.00 ▲(10.08% Upside)

The overall stock score of 76 reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call outcomes, which are slightly offset by bearish technical indicators. The company's fair valuation and robust cash flow support its growth prospects, despite challenges in certain market segments.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong demand for PKG's products, reflecting its ability to capture market share and drive top-line expansion.

Cash Flow Strength

Robust cash flow supports PKG's capacity to invest in growth opportunities, manage debt, and return capital to shareholders, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Successful Acquisition

The acquisition is expected to improve long-term productivity and efficiency, strengthening PKG's competitive position and operational capabilities.

Negative Factors

Decline in Export Sales Volume

A decline in export sales volume could indicate challenges in international markets, potentially impacting revenue and growth prospects if not addressed.

Challenges in Specific Market Segments

Challenges in key market segments could hinder PKG's ability to maintain growth momentum and diversify its revenue base, affecting long-term performance.

Higher Operating Costs

Rising operating costs can pressure margins and reduce profitability, potentially limiting PKG's ability to invest in growth and innovation over time.

Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and corrugated packaging products in the United States. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various containerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization, independent brokers, and distribution partners. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers. This segment sells white papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Packaging generates revenue primarily through the sale of its packaging products to businesses across multiple sectors. The company operates on a B2B model, supplying packaging solutions to manufacturers and retailers who require specialized packaging for their goods. Key revenue streams include direct sales of packaging products, custom packaging design services, and long-term contracts with clients for ongoing supply. Additionally, PKG benefits from strategic partnerships with raw material suppliers and logistics companies, which help to streamline operations and reduce costs. The increasing demand for sustainable packaging solutions has also positioned PKG to capture market share, as more companies seek eco-friendly alternatives in response to consumer preferences and regulatory pressures.

Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The company demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and a solid balance sheet. While leverage is moderate, the company effectively manages its debt, and robust cash flow metrics support its financial stability and growth prospects.

Income Statement

The company has shown consistent revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.52% and strong profitability metrics, including a gross profit margin of 21.79% and a net profit margin of 10.18%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 14.16% and 20.62%, respectively. These figures indicate robust operational efficiency and profitability in the competitive packaging industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.92, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is strong at 19.54%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio of 43.31% suggests a balanced but slightly leveraged capital structure.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow is strong, with a free cash flow growth rate of 15.94% TTM and a solid operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.30. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.50 indicates a healthy conversion of earnings into cash, supporting future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.77B	8.38B	7.80B	8.48B	7.73B	6.66B
Gross Profit	1.91B	1.78B	1.70B	2.09B	1.87B	1.39B
EBITDA	1.81B	1.63B	1.59B	1.89B	1.68B	1.14B
Net Income	893.30M	805.10M	765.20M	1.03B	841.10M	461.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.98B	8.83B	8.68B	8.00B	7.84B	7.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	728.70M	787.00M	1.14B	405.20M	704.80M	1.08B
Total Debt	4.36B	2.77B	3.17B	2.79B	2.73B	2.74B
Total Liabilities	6.22B	4.43B	4.68B	4.34B	4.23B	4.19B
Stockholders Equity	4.76B	4.40B	4.00B	3.67B	3.61B	3.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	725.10M	521.50M	845.40M	670.80M	489.00M	611.60M
Operating Cash Flow	1.44B	1.19B	1.32B	1.50B	1.09B	1.03B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.49B	-277.80M	-875.10M	-833.70M	-794.40M	-426.10M
Financing Cash Flow	1.01B	-876.40M	-112.00M	-960.00M	-655.60M	-311.60M

Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 203.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PKG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 203.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 198.08, below the 50-day MA of 205.58, and above the 200-day MA of 198.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PKG.

Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$18.31B	20.57	19.68%	2.46%	7.30%	15.31%
CCK	74 Outperform	$11.18B	12.00	34.10%	1.07%	2.94%	893.70%
AMCR	72 Outperform	$19.86B	25.18	7.44%	5.95%	28.41%	-35.50%
SW	65 Neutral	$18.90B	25.46	4.11%	4.82%	―	―
BALL	62 Neutral	$13.30B	18.57	11.74%	1.67%	2.87%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
IP	42 Neutral	$20.78B	―	-4.65%	4.70%	25.91%	-316.17%

Packaging Corporate Events

Packaging Corporation of America Reports Solid Q3 2025 Results

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a leading producer in the packaging and paper industry, known for its containerboard and uncoated freesheet paper products, operating ten mills and 93 corrugated products plants across North America.

PCA Reports Positive Earnings Amid Challenges

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) recently held its earnings call, revealing a generally positive outlook for the quarter. The company reported increased net income, record cash flow, and a successful integration of the Greif acquisition. Despite these achievements, PCA acknowledged ongoing challenges in export sales volume, specific market segments, and rising operating costs.

Packaging Corporation Completes Acquisition of Greif’s Business

On August 31, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) completed the acquisition of Greif’s containerboard business for approximately $1.8 billion. This strategic acquisition, funded through a combination of cash and new borrowings, expands PCA’s production capacity significantly with the addition of two containerboard mills and eight plants across the U.S., potentially enhancing its market position and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Buy with a $247.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.

Packaging Corp Announces $500M Senior Notes Offering

On August 11, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America priced a $500 million offering of 5.200% Senior Notes due 2035, with the issuance expected to close on August 15, 2025. The proceeds, estimated at $495.1 million after expenses, will be used to finance the acquisition of Greif, Inc.’s containerboard business. This strategic move aims to enhance the company’s market position, although the acquisition must be completed by June 30, 2026, or the notes will be subject to redemption.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Hold with a $221.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.