Packaging (PKG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.53B
• Dividend Yield: 2.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 679.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 8.98%
• EPS Growth: 25.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,400
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 2.48
• Shares Outstanding: 89,980,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 686,440
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 679,206
• PEG Ratio: 3.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 36.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.03
• 1Y Price Target: $213.40
• Price Target Upside: 3.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $237.00 ▲(14.75%Upside)

The overall stock score of 80 reflects strong financial performance, positive technical trends, and strategic growth initiatives. The company's robust revenue growth and effective cash flow management are key strengths. Additionally, the strategic acquisition of Greif's containerboard business adds to growth prospects. The valuation is fair, and despite some operational challenges, the company's positive outlook and strategic initiatives support its stable position in the Packaging & Containers industry.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Impact

Following the GEF acquisition, PKG’s recycled mix will increase from ~20% to ~30%, enhancing its market position.

Market Growth

E-commerce remains the fastest growing end market with healthy volumes, and PKG continues to generate solid margins due to its low-cost network.

Operational Efficiency

The Glendale, AZ box plant started up ahead of schedule and below budget, allowing PKG to better serve the market.

Negative Factors

Competition Risk

High operating rates in the industry have historically attracted new entrants, which could be negative for PKG.

Export Challenges

Exports are softer, notably to China, with a reduction of 1,200 tons a month.

Rising Costs

Rising operating costs and maintenance expenses are weighing on earnings and have led to a sell-off.

Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and corrugated packaging products in the United States. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various containerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization, independent brokers, and distribution partners. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers. This segment sells white papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Packaging Corporation of America generates revenue through the manufacturing and sale of its containerboard and corrugated products. The company operates a network of mills and facilities that produce containerboard, which is then converted into corrugated packaging products. These products are sold directly to businesses across various industries, ensuring a steady demand for packaging solutions. Additionally, PKG benefits from its ability to offer customized packaging solutions, which allows it to serve niche markets and provide value-added services. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and distributors further enhance its market reach, supporting consistent revenue growth. The company's focus on sustainability and innovation also positions it favorably in an increasingly eco-conscious market, contributing to its financial success.

Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Packaging has demonstrated strong financial performance across all verticals, with robust revenue growth, stable profitability, and effective cash flow management. The company maintains a solid balance sheet with manageable debt levels, supporting its long-term financial health. While leverage is slightly higher, the overall financial health remains strong, positioning the company well for future growth and stability in the Packaging & Containers industry.

Income Statement

The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from the previous years. The gross profit margin and EBIT margin indicate healthy profitability, while net profit margin remains stable. Overall, the income statement reflects robust growth and profitability metrics, highlighting effective cost management and revenue expansion.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a solid equity foundation with a healthy equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity is strong, suggesting effective use of equity capital. However, the slight increase in total debt warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

The company exhibits solid cash flow performance, with consistent free cash flow generation and a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio. Free cash flow growth is stable, reflecting effective cash management and reinvestment strategies. Overall, cash flow metrics indicate a strong ability to generate cash and sustain operations.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.38B	7.80B	8.48B	7.73B	6.66B
Gross Profit	1.78B	1.70B	2.09B	1.87B	1.37B
EBITDA	1.63B	1.59B	1.89B	1.68B	1.14B
Net Income	805.10M	765.20M	1.03B	841.10M	461.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.83B	8.68B	8.00B	7.84B	7.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	787.00M	1.14B	405.20M	704.80M	1.08B
Total Debt	2.77B	3.17B	2.79B	2.73B	2.74B
Total Liabilities	4.43B	4.68B	4.34B	4.23B	4.19B
Stockholders Equity	4.40B	4.00B	3.67B	3.61B	3.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	521.50M	845.40M	670.80M	489.00M	611.60M
Operating Cash Flow	1.19B	1.32B	1.50B	1.09B	1.03B
Investing Cash Flow	-277.80M	-875.10M	-833.70M	-794.40M	-426.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-876.40M	-112.00M	-960.00M	-655.60M	-311.60M

Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 206.53
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PKG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 206.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 201.96, above the 50-day MA of 195.31, and below the 200-day MA of 208.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PKG.

Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	80 Outperform	$18.53B	20.55	20.07%	2.42%	8.98%	25.73%
CCK	74 Outperform	$12.13B	21.89	20.60%	0.99%	2.13%	32.36%
BALL	69 Neutral	$16.35B	31.27	8.23%	1.36%	-9.79%	―
AMCR	67 Neutral	$22.50B	17.51	20.71%	5.20%	-2.29%	24.05%
IP	66 Neutral	$28.93B	46.12	3.01%	3.32%	7.49%	123.95%
Sector *	65 Neutral	€19.74B	9.82	7.83%	3.19%	0.64%	-38.42%
SW	63 Neutral	$24.99B	39.31	4.25%	0.06%	―	―

Packaging Corporate Events

Packaging Corp Acquires Greif’s Containerboard Business

On June 30, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the containerboard business of Greif, Inc. for $1.8 billion in cash. This acquisition, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, is subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals, and includes provisions for termination rights and indemnification, potentially impacting PCA’s market positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Hold with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.

Packaging Corporation Acquires Greif’s Containerboard Business

On July 1, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America announced its agreement to acquire the containerboard business of Greif, Inc. for $1.8 billion in cash. The acquisition, expected to close by the end of PCA’s third quarter, includes two containerboard mills and eight sheet feeder and corrugated plants across the U.S., which generated $1.2 billion in sales over the last 12 months. The deal is anticipated to bring $60 million in pre-tax synergies through operational efficiencies and increased integration, enhancing PCA’s growth strategy and shareholder value. The acquisition will be financed with $1.5 billion in new debt and cash, and is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings, with PCA’s pro forma leverage ratio estimated at 1.7X post-transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Hold with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.

Packaging Corporation Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On May 7, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) conducted its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key proposals were approved. These included the election of directors, ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm, and approval of executive compensation. The outcomes of these votes are likely to influence PCA’s corporate governance and operational strategies moving forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Hold with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.