Amcor (AMCR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.34B
• Dividend Yield: 5.24%
• Average Volume (3M): 24.27M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: -2.29%
• EPS Growth: 24.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 41,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 68
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 2,305,343,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,023,705
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,269,547
• PEG Ratio: 9.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.03
• 1Y Price Target: $11.68
• Price Target Upside: 20.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(3.20%Upside)

Amcor's overall score is driven by strong future synergy expectations from the Berry Global merger, attractive valuation, and robust cash flow. However, declining revenue, high leverage, and mixed technical signals temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Cost Synergies

AMCR identified $530 million of cost synergies, which is 5.2% of BERY's sales, and appears manageable relative to 6.7% average for AMCR's past transactions.

Innovation Leadership

The combination of Amcor and Berry Global is expected to create a global packaging powerhouse with unmatched scale and innovation leadership.

Profit Growth

Amcor is anticipated to experience significant profit growth driven by synergies over the next two years.

Negative Factors

Net Sales Impact

Unfavourable price/mix impact and lower demand in high-value healthcare categories negatively affected net sales.

Operational Performance

Operational performance was fractionally lower than consensus with 2% lower sales and $5m lower EBIT.

Amcor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Amcor plc develops, produces, and sells packaging products in Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. The company operates through two segments, Flexibles and Rigid Packaging. The Flexibles segment provides flexible and film packaging products in the food and beverage, medical and pharmaceutical, fresh produce, snack food, personal care, and other industries. The Rigid Packaging segment offers rigid containers for a range of beverage and food products, including carbonated soft drinks, water, juices, sports drinks, milk-based beverages, spirits and beer, sauces, dressings, spreads, and personal care items; and plastic caps for various applications. The company sells its products primarily through its direct sales force. Amcor plc was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Zürich, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

Amcor generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse packaging solutions to a broad range of industries. The company's revenue model is based on long-term contracts and partnerships with major consumer goods companies, pharmaceutical firms, and other businesses requiring packaging solutions. Amcor leverages its global footprint and advanced technology to deliver cost-effective and sustainable packaging, which is a key factor in attracting and retaining clients. Significant revenue streams include the sales of flexible packaging, rigid packaging, and specialty cartons. Additionally, Amcor invests in innovation and sustainability, which not only enhances its product offerings but also aligns with the increasing demand for environmentally friendly packaging solutions, further contributing to its earnings.

Amcor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Amcor demonstrates reasonable financial health with strong cash flow metrics, but declining revenue and profit margins raise concerns. High leverage and low equity levels increase financial risk.

Income Statement

Amcor's TTM revenue has decreased compared to the previous year, with a revenue growth rate of -1.3%. The gross profit margin stands at 20%, showing a slight decline from historical performance. The net profit margin is 3.4%, indicating profitability but also reflecting a decrease in net income. The EBIT margin is 5.3%, while the EBITDA margin is 7.5%, both of which show a reduction in operational efficiency compared to prior years.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 2.40, suggesting a high leverage level and potential risk in financial stability. The return on equity is 11.8%, demonstrating decent profitability on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is 21.3%, reflecting a relatively low proportion of equity in the asset structure, which could imply higher financial risk.

Cash Flow

Amcor's free cash flow has grown by 31.4% in the TTM period, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.71, showing a robust conversion of profits into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.41, further highlighting efficient cash management despite reduced net income.

Breakdown	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.64B	14.69B	14.54B	12.86B	12.47B
Gross Profit	2.71B	2.73B	2.82B	2.73B	2.54B
EBITDA	1.84B	2.13B	1.90B	1.92B	1.68B
Net Income	730.00M	1.05B	805.00M	939.00M	612.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.52B	17.00B	17.43B	17.19B	16.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	588.00M	689.00M	775.00M	850.00M	743.00M
Total Debt	7.19B	6.75B	6.49B	6.29B	6.23B
Total Liabilities	12.57B	12.91B	13.29B	12.37B	11.76B
Stockholders Equity	3.88B	4.03B	4.08B	4.76B	4.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	829.00M	735.00M	999.00M	993.00M	984.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.32B	1.26B	1.53B	1.46B	1.38B
Investing Cash Flow	-476.00M	-308.00M	-510.00M	-228.00M	38.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-857.00M	-1.01B	-886.00M	-1.18B	-1.24B

Amcor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMCR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.50, above the 50-day MA of 9.27, and above the 200-day MA of 9.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMCR.

Amcor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	78 Outperform	$17.98B	20.92	20.07%	3.10%	9.47%	19.37%
CCK	74 Outperform	$12.36B	22.83	20.60%	1.21%	2.13%	32.36%
BALL	69 Neutral	$16.05B	30.69	8.23%	1.68%	-9.79%	―
GPK	68 Neutral	$6.77B	11.00	20.62%	2.31%	-6.28%	-7.43%
AMCR	67 Neutral	$22.34B	17.39	20.71%	5.24%	-2.29%	24.05%
BERY	67 Neutral	$7.83B	14.54	21.42%	1.73%	-8.26%	10.64%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$17.14B	11.11	-7.24%	3.14%	1.68%	-25.43%

Amcor Corporate Events

Amcor Announces Consent Solicitations for Berry Merger

On February 26, 2025, Amcor plc announced the commencement of consent solicitations from holders of various senior secured notes issued by Berry Global, Inc., a subsidiary of Berry Global Group, Inc. The solicitations aim to amend indentures governing these notes in connection with a planned merger where Berry will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amcor. The proposed amendments include releasing certain guarantees and liens if Amcor provides an unconditional guarantee of Berry’s payment obligations. The consent process is part of a broader strategy to align the credit support of Berry’s notes with Amcor’s notes, potentially impacting stakeholders by altering the security structure of these financial instruments.

Amcor Shareholders Approve Merger with Berry Global

On February 25, 2025, Amcor plc shareholders approved a merger with Berry Global Group, marking a significant step towards combining these complementary businesses. The merger, expected to close in mid-2025, aims to create a global leader in consumer and healthcare packaging solutions, promising faster growth and $650 million in synergies, thus enhancing value for stakeholders.