Amcor (AMCR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.25B
• Dividend Yield: 6.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.23M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.35
• Revenue Growth: 28.41%
• EPS Growth: -35.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 41,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.86
• Shares Outstanding: 462,045,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,209,732
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,226,210
• PEG Ratio: -0.79
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.71
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.83
• 1Y Price Target: $55.43
• Price Target Upside: 14.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.99
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $22.94B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $52.00 ▲(7.37% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

AMCR’s score is driven primarily by improving revenue and strong free cash flow generation, but held back by meaningful margin compression and a moderately leveraged balance sheet. Technically, the trend is positive but appears overbought, while valuation is mixed (high P/E offset by a strong dividend). Earnings-call guidance and synergy progress are supportive, though volume softness and non-core underperformance remain notable risks.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow generation

Amcor’s sustained FCF (~$1.62B TTM) and free-cash-flow-to-net-income ~1.01x indicate durable cash conversion quality. Reliable FCF supports capex, dividends, debt paydown and funding of integration costs over the medium term, underpinning financial flexibility.

Improving revenue momentum

Top-line growth (+12.7% TTM) reflects successful scale gains from acquisitions and commercial wins. Durable revenue momentum across core businesses provides a larger base to recover margins and fund investments, making long-term earnings recovery more feasible even if volumes fluctuate.

Synergy capture & integration

Accelerating synergy realization (YTD $93M; FY26 ≥$260M; $650M to 2028) shows execution on merger economics. Sustained synergy delivery can structurally improve margins, free cash flow and ROI, supporting deleveraging and long-term margin recovery beyond short-term integration costs.

Negative Factors

Margin compression

Material margin erosion (TTM net margin ~3.3% vs prior ~5.4%–7.1%) signals weaker earnings efficiency. Persistently lower margins reduce internal reinvestment capacity and ROE, requiring sustained operational fixes and realized synergies to restore profitability over the medium term.

Meaningful leverage

A moderately leveraged balance sheet (D/E ~1.3x, adjusted leverage cited higher in quarterly commentary) limits flexibility in a higher-rate environment. Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to cash flow swings and constrains strategic options until deleveraging targets are met.

Non-core weakness & volume decline

Underperformance in a ~$2.5B non-core portfolio and company volumes down ~2%–2.5% indicate structural demand softness and portfolio drag. Persistent weak volumes and low-margin non-core assets can depress consolidated margins and require portfolio actions to restore long-term earnings quality.

Amcor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Amcor plc develops, produces, and sells packaging products in Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. The company operates through two segments, Flexibles and Rigid Packaging. The Flexibles segment provides flexible and film packaging products in the food and beverage, medical and pharmaceutical, fresh produce, snack food, personal care, and other industries. The Rigid Packaging segment offers rigid containers for a range of beverage and food products, including carbonated soft drinks, water, juices, sports drinks, milk-based beverages, spirits and beer, sauces, dressings, spreads, and personal care items; and plastic caps for various applications. The company sells its products primarily through its direct sales force. Amcor plc was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Zürich, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

Amcor generates revenue primarily through the sale of its packaging products across various sectors. The company operates in two main segments: Flexibles and Rigid Packaging. Its Flexibles segment includes products like flexible films and bags, while the Rigid Packaging segment encompasses containers and lids. Amcor's revenue model is based on long-term contracts with large multinational clients, which provides stability and predictability in earnings. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with key players in the food, beverage, and healthcare industries, enabling it to innovate and expand its product offerings. Factors contributing to its earnings include increased demand for sustainable packaging solutions, geographic expansion into emerging markets, and a focus on operational efficiency to reduce costs.

Amcor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is improving (+12.7% TTM), and free cash flow is a clear strength ($1.62B TTM with solid conversion vs. net income). Offsetting this, profitability has weakened materially (TTM net margin ~3.3% vs. ~5.4%–7.1% prior years) and leverage remains meaningful (debt-to-equity ~1.3x) with stepped-down returns (TTM ROE ~7.5%).

Income Statement

AMCR shows solid top-line momentum in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with revenue up 12.7% versus the most recent annual period. Profitability, however, has clearly compressed versus prior years: TTM gross margin is ~19.0% and net margin is ~3.3%, down materially from FY2023–FY2024 net margins (~5.4%–7.1%). Operating profitability also softened (TTM operating margin ~7.0% vs. ~9%–10% in FY2023–FY2024), suggesting higher costs and/or pricing pressure. Overall: improving growth, but weaker earnings efficiency and margin stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains meaningful, with debt-to-equity running around ~1.3x in the most recent periods (TTM and FY2025), which limits balance-sheet flexibility in a higher-rate environment. Return on equity has also stepped down (TTM ~7.5% vs. ~19%–26% in FY2022–FY2024), consistent with the margin pressure seen in the income statement. A positive offset is that equity and total assets are large in the latest snapshots, but the overall profile still reads as moderately leveraged with reduced returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow is ~$1.62B and slightly exceeds net income (free cash flow to net income ~1.01x), indicating good cash conversion. TTM free cash flow growth is positive (+5.5%), improving versus the slight decline reported in FY2025. The main weakness is that operating cash flow coverage is low in the provided data (around ~0.19–0.31 across periods), which suggests cash flow is not especially large relative to the referenced obligation base. Overall: healthy free cash flow and conversion, but coverage metrics point to ongoing balance-sheet sensitivity.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.61B	15.01B	13.64B	14.69B	14.54B	12.86B
Gross Profit	3.57B	2.83B	2.71B	2.73B	2.82B	2.73B
EBITDA	2.57B	1.77B	1.85B	2.13B	1.90B	1.92B
Net Income	596.00M	511.00M	730.00M	1.05B	805.00M	939.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	37.05B	37.07B	16.52B	17.00B	17.43B	17.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.06B	827.00M	588.00M	689.00M	775.00M	850.00M
Total Debt	16.90B	15.01B	7.19B	7.21B	6.98B	6.75B
Total Liabilities	25.40B	25.33B	12.57B	12.91B	13.29B	12.37B
Stockholders Equity	11.64B	11.73B	3.88B	4.03B	4.08B	4.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.62B	810.00M	829.00M	735.00M	999.00M	993.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.60B	1.39B	1.32B	1.26B	1.53B	1.46B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.41B	-2.10B	-476.00M	-309.00M	-527.00M	-233.00M
Financing Cash Flow	1.34B	910.00M	-857.00M	-1.02B	-891.00M	-1.18B

Amcor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 48.43
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMCR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.90, above the 50-day MA of 44.39, and above the 200-day MA of 42.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMCR.

Amcor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCK	71 Outperform	$13.15B	17.97	25.65%	1.01%	2.94%	893.70%
PKG	69 Neutral	$20.63B	27.05	17.08%	2.42%	7.23%	-3.88%
SW	68 Neutral	$24.47B	35.11	3.92%	4.21%	―	―
BALL	66 Neutral	$17.67B	20.12	16.17%	1.53%	2.87%	―
AMCR	64 Neutral	$22.25B	31.67	7.73%	6.20%	28.41%	-35.50%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
IP	49 Neutral	$22.71B	-6.40	-24.51%	4.69%	33.71%	-517.99%

Amcor Corporate Events

Amcor Completes Reverse Stock Split and Capital Structure Changes

On January 14, 2026, Amcor implemented a 1-for-5 reverse stock split previously approved by shareholders on November 6, 2025, consolidating every five ordinary shares into one and reducing its outstanding share count from about 2.3 billion to roughly 461 million, while proportionately adjusting authorized ordinary and preferred share counts and increasing their par value to $0.05 per share. Effective January 15, 2026, Amcor’s ordinary shares on the NYSE and its CHESS Depositary Interests on the ASX began trading on a split-adjusted basis under existing tickers, with equity-based awards adjusted accordingly and fractional share entitlements settled in cash, a move that simplifies the capital structure and may enhance trading dynamics and perceived share value for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMCR) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Amcor stock, see the AMCR Stock Forecast page.

Amcor Announces Reverse Stock Split Plan

On December 11, 2025, Amcor announced it will proceed with a 1-for-5 reverse stock split, effective January 14, 2026, reducing its outstanding ordinary shares from approximately 2.3 billion to 461 million. This move, approved by shareholders on November 6, 2025, aims to consolidate shares and adjust share values, impacting trading on the New York and Australian Stock Exchanges. The reverse stock split will also proportionately adjust unvested equity-based awards and ensure no fractional shares are issued, with cash payments provided instead.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMCR) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Amcor stock, see the AMCR Stock Forecast page.

Amcor Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at AGM

At its Annual General Meeting on November 6, 2025, Amcor plc shareholders re-elected eleven directors and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers AG as the independent registered public accounting firm for the 2026 fiscal year. Additionally, shareholders approved the executive compensation plan, decided on an annual advisory vote frequency for executive compensation, and sanctioned an amendment to the company’s Memorandum of Association to implement a reverse stock split. These decisions reflect a strategic alignment with shareholder interests and a focus on corporate governance, potentially impacting Amcor’s operational efficiency and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMCR) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Amcor stock, see the AMCR Stock Forecast page.