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Amcor PLC (AMCR)
NYSE:AMCR

Amcor (AMCR) AI Stock Analysis

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Amcor

(NYSE:AMCR)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(3.20%Upside)
Amcor's overall score is driven by strong future synergy expectations from the Berry Global merger, attractive valuation, and robust cash flow. However, declining revenue, high leverage, and mixed technical signals temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Cost Synergies
AMCR identified $530 million of cost synergies, which is 5.2% of BERY's sales, and appears manageable relative to 6.7% average for AMCR's past transactions.
Profit Growth
Amcor is anticipated to experience significant profit growth driven by synergies over the next two years.
Negative Factors
Net Sales
Unfavourable price/mix impact and lower demand in high-value healthcare categories negatively affected net sales.
Operational Performance
Operational performance was fractionally lower than consensus with 2% lower sales and $5m lower EBIT.

Amcor (AMCR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Amcor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmcor plc develops, produces, and sells packaging products in Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. The company operates through two segments, Flexibles and Rigid Packaging. The Flexibles segment provides flexible and film packaging products in the food and beverage, medical and pharmaceutical, fresh produce, snack food, personal care, and other industries. The Rigid Packaging segment offers rigid containers for a range of beverage and food products, including carbonated soft drinks, water, juices, sports drinks, milk-based beverages, spirits and beer, sauces, dressings, spreads, and personal care items; and plastic caps for various applications. The company sells its products primarily through its direct sales force. Amcor plc was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Zürich, Switzerland.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmcor generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse packaging solutions to a broad range of industries. The company's revenue model is based on long-term contracts and partnerships with major consumer goods companies, pharmaceutical firms, and other businesses requiring packaging solutions. Amcor leverages its global footprint and advanced technology to deliver cost-effective and sustainable packaging, which is a key factor in attracting and retaining clients. Significant revenue streams include the sales of flexible packaging, rigid packaging, and specialty cartons. Additionally, Amcor invests in innovation and sustainability, which not only enhances its product offerings but also aligns with the increasing demand for environmentally friendly packaging solutions, further contributing to its earnings.

Amcor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 6.84%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Amcor's earnings call highlighted the successful merger with Berry Global and strong projections for synergy-driven growth, alongside ongoing challenges with North American volumes and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Merger with Berry Global
Amcor closed its merger with Berry Global earlier than anticipated, positioning the company to accelerate earnings growth through significant synergies.
Record Low Total Recordable Incident Rate
Amcor reported a TRIR of 0.27, with 69% of sites injury-free for over a year, highlighting a strong focus on workforce safety.
EPS Growth in Q3
Amcor delivered EPS growth of 5% on a comparable basis, driven by disciplined execution and improving healthcare volumes.
Synergy and Earnings Growth Projection
The integration with Berry is expected to deliver $650 million in synergies over three years, with a projected EPS accretion exceeding 35%.
Strong Cash Flow Projections
Amcor expects annual cash flow available to reinvest will exceed $3 billion by fiscal 2028, supporting dividends and further M&A activities.
Negative Updates
Weaker North American Volume Performance
Amcor reported weaker than expected consumer demand in North America, particularly affecting the Beverage business, with high single-digit volume declines.
Inventory Challenges
Higher inventories due to weaker sales volumes led to a net cash outflow of $17 million, compared to a $115 million inflow last year.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Amcor noted increasing uncertainty in the macro environment, with no anticipated improvement in consumer demand in Q4.
Company Guidance
During the fiscal 2025 third quarter earnings call, Amcor provided updated guidance reflecting its recent merger with Berry Global, which closed earlier than anticipated. The company anticipates delivering $650 million in synergies over the next three years, with $260 million expected to benefit fiscal 2026 earnings, contributing to a projected EPS increase of approximately 12% solely from synergies. Amcor revised its fiscal 2025 EPS guidance to a range of $0.72 to $0.74, incorporating two months of Berry's earnings, and expects free cash flow between $900 million and $1 billion. The company also highlighted its strong safety performance, with a TRIR of 0.27 and 69% of sites injury-free for over a year. Despite facing volume challenges in North America, particularly in the beverage sector, Amcor remains confident in its ability to drive growth and synergies, aiming for long-term EPS accretion exceeding 35% over three years.

Amcor Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Amcor shows reasonable financial health with strong cash flow metrics despite declining revenue and profit margins. High leverage and low equity levels pose financial risks.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Amcor's TTM revenue has decreased compared to the previous year, with a revenue growth rate of -1.3%. The gross profit margin stands at 20%, showing a slight decline from historical performance. The net profit margin is 3.4%, indicating profitability but also reflecting a decrease in net income. The EBIT margin is 5.3%, while the EBITDA margin is 7.5%, both of which show a reduction in operational efficiency compared to prior years.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 2.40, suggesting a high leverage level and potential risk in financial stability. The return on equity is 11.8%, demonstrating decent profitability on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is 21.3%, reflecting a relatively low proportion of equity in the asset structure, which could imply higher financial risk.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Amcor's free cash flow has grown by 31.4% in the TTM period, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.71, showing a robust conversion of profits into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.41, further highlighting efficient cash management despite reduced net income.
BreakdownTTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue13.46B13.64B14.69B14.54B12.86B12.47B
Gross Profit2.69B2.71B2.73B2.82B2.73B2.54B
EBITDA1.00B1.84B2.13B1.90B1.92B1.68B
Net Income453.00M730.00M1.05B805.00M939.00M612.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets18.04B16.52B17.00B17.43B17.19B16.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.04B588.00M689.00M775.00M850.00M743.00M
Total Debt9.24B7.19B6.75B6.49B6.29B6.23B
Total Liabilities14.18B12.57B12.91B13.29B12.37B11.76B
Stockholders Equity3.85B3.88B4.03B4.08B4.76B4.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.09B829.00M735.00M999.00M993.00M984.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.23B1.32B1.26B1.53B1.46B1.38B
Investing Cash Flow-357.76M-476.00M-308.00M-510.00M-228.00M38.00M
Financing Cash Flow792.75M-857.00M-1.01B-886.00M-1.18B-1.24B

Amcor Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.69
Price Trends
50DMA
9.16
Positive
100DMA
9.39
Positive
200DMA
9.70
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.07
Negative
RSI
67.61
Neutral
STOCH
83.16
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMCR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.17, above the 50-day MA of 9.16, and below the 200-day MA of 9.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMCR.

Amcor Risk Analysis

Amcor disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amcor reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Amcor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
PKPKG
75
Outperform
$18.24B21.2320.07%2.47%9.47%19.37%
CCCCK
70
Outperform
$12.26B22.6321.30%1.01%0.90%34.40%
69
Neutral
$16.06B30.718.23%1.38%-9.79%
67
Neutral
$21.83B16.9920.71%5.38%-2.29%24.05%
67
Neutral
$7.83B14.5421.42%1.73%-8.26%10.64%
GPGPK
64
Neutral
$6.59B10.7120.62%2.09%-6.28%-7.43%
56
Neutral
HK$23.69B3.90-1.57%6.91%0.06%-64.88%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AMCR
Amcor
9.69
0.54
5.90%
BALL
Ball
58.74
-0.46
-0.78%
CCK
Crown Holdings
106.91
35.11
48.90%
GPK
Graphic Packaging
22.03
-3.23
-12.79%
PKG
Packaging
201.94
26.70
15.24%
BERY
Berry Global Group
67.58
14.00
26.13%

Amcor Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Amcor Announces Consent Solicitations for Berry Merger
Neutral
Feb 26, 2025

On February 26, 2025, Amcor plc announced the commencement of consent solicitations from holders of various senior secured notes issued by Berry Global, Inc., a subsidiary of Berry Global Group, Inc. The solicitations aim to amend indentures governing these notes in connection with a planned merger where Berry will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amcor. The proposed amendments include releasing certain guarantees and liens if Amcor provides an unconditional guarantee of Berry’s payment obligations. The consent process is part of a broader strategy to align the credit support of Berry’s notes with Amcor’s notes, potentially impacting stakeholders by altering the security structure of these financial instruments.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Amcor Shareholders Approve Merger with Berry Global
Positive
Feb 26, 2025

On February 25, 2025, Amcor plc shareholders approved a merger with Berry Global Group, marking a significant step towards combining these complementary businesses. The merger, expected to close in mid-2025, aims to create a global leader in consumer and healthcare packaging solutions, promising faster growth and $650 million in synergies, thus enhancing value for stakeholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025