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Crown Holdings (CCK)
NYSE:CCK
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Crown Holdings
(NYSE:CCK)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$126.00
▲(9.76% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance, especially strong cash generation and profit recovery, supported by a confident earnings outlook and disciplined capital returns. Technicals are constructive but near-term overbought signals temper the rating, while valuation appears fair rather than clearly discounted.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Sustained, materially higher free cash flow provides durable capacity to fund capital projects, pay down debt, and support buybacks/dividends. Over a 2–6 month horizon, robust FCF underpins financial flexibility and de-risks execution of capacity expansions and leverage targets.
Improving Profitability / EBITDA
A multi-year rise in adjusted EBITDA reflects better commercial execution and operational leverage in core beverage and tinplate businesses. Higher, more consistent EBITDA supports reinvestment and margins, making profits more resilient to normal cyclical swings over coming quarters.
Achieved Leverage Target
Hitting the announced ~2.5x net leverage goal signals disciplined capital allocation and balance-sheet repair. This structural improvement increases borrowing optionality, lowers refinancing risk, and enables planned share repurchases and growth capex without materially raising financial fragility.
Negative Factors
Elevated Absolute Debt
Despite progress, the company still carries meaningful total debt that constrains flexibility if volumes or margins deteriorate. High absolute leverage increases interest and refinancing sensitivity, which can limit strategic choices and raise risk over multiple quarters.
Cyclicality and Earnings Volatility
Historical swings in profitability and uneven cash conversion highlight sensitivity to commodity, volume, and cyclical demand shifts. This structural volatility makes forecasting earnings and FCF less predictable and elevates execution risk across the next several quarters.
Input Cost & Geographic Risks
Exposure to volatile aluminum prices, trade/tariff dynamics, and regional demand weakness (Brazil/Asia) can compress margins and delay payback on growth capex. Start‑up costs for new capacity will modestly reduce near‑term cash flow and margin resilience over the coming year.
Crown Holdings (CCK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.16B
Dividend Yield1.01%
Average Volume (3M)1.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.9
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth2.94%
EPS Growth893.70%
CountryUS
Employees23,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.74
Shares Outstanding115,347,890
10 Day Avg. Volume1,029,321
30 Day Avg. Volume1,168,654
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)3.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.96
P/FCF Ratio10.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$127.25Price Target Upside10.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)8.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.88B
Crown Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCrown Holdings, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells packaging products and equipment for consumer goods and industrial products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It offers products for consumer goods, including steel and aluminum cans for food and beverage industries. The company also provides products for industrial products, such as steel and plastic strap consumables and equipment, paper-based protective packaging, and plastic film consumables and equipment to metals, food and beverage, construction, agricultural, corrugated, and general industries. In addition, it offers other consumer products, glass bottles for beverage products, steel crowns, aluminum caps, steel strap, plastic strap, industrial film, and other related products, as well as equipment and tools, such as manual, semi-automatic, and automatic equipment and tools used in end of line manufacturing applications to apply industrial solutions consumables. Crown Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Yardley, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyCrown Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of metal packaging products across multiple sectors. Its key revenue streams include the production of aluminum and steel cans for beverages, food containers, and other specialty packaging solutions. The company benefits from long-term contracts with major clients, which provide stable income and volume assurance. Additionally, Crown Holdings invests in advanced manufacturing technologies to improve production efficiency and reduce costs, enhancing its profitability. Strategic partnerships with leading brands and a focus on sustainability also contribute to its competitive advantage and market positioning, further driving revenue growth.
Crown Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Crown Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational and financial performance: record adjusted EBITDA and record free cash flow, solid volume gains (notably +10% in Europe and +3% global beverage in Q4), disciplined capital returns, and achievement of target net leverage (2.5x). Offsetting these positives are localized softness (Brazil and Asia), start-up costs and inflation pressure in 2026, tariff/aluminum cost uncertainty, and a modest sequential dip in segment income. Overall, the company portrays confident growth plans, prudent capital allocation, and manageable near-term headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS Growth
Adjusted earnings per share were $1.74 in the quarter, up 9% from $1.59 in the prior-year quarter, demonstrating underlying earnings momentum after adjusting for a prior-year one-time gain.
Record Adjusted EBITDA
Full-year adjusted EBITDA reached almost $2.1 billion in 2025 (vs. $1.9 billion in 2024), reflecting strong commercial and operational performance across the beverage and tinplate businesses (management cites an ~8% improvement in EBITDA).
Record Free Cash Flow
The company generated record free cash flow of $1.146 billion in 2025 compared to $814 million in 2024, a $332 million improvement (≈+40.8%), driven by EBITDA improvement and lower pension contributions.
Net Sales and Volume Trends
Net sales in the quarter were up 8% year-over-year, driven by a 3% increase in global beverage can volumes, $189 million of raw-material cost pass-through, and $58 million of favorable foreign exchange.
Strong European Beverage Performance
European beverage volumes increased 10% in the fourth quarter and for the full year, producing record segment income and materially contributing to full-year results; management expects continued growth in Europe.
Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns
The company returned $625 million to shareholders in 2025 ( $505M share repurchases and $120M dividends) versus $336 million in 2024; Q4 repurchases were $191 million. Guidance assumes ~$650 million of buybacks baked into 2026 plan.
Balance Sheet / Leverage Target Achieved
Net leverage reached the company's target of approximately 2.5x in September 2025, improved from 2.7x in 2024, supporting disciplined capital deployment while maintaining investment flexibility.
Positive Forward Guidance and Capacity Investments
Company guided Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.70–$1.80 and full-year adjusted EPS of $7.90–$8.30. Planned 2026 capital spending of ~$550 million (Brazil, Greece, Spain) to support growth; expected 2026 free cash flow ≈$900 million and maintained leverage target ~2.5x.
Segment Strengths and Cash-Generative Businesses
Transit Packaging continues to generate meaningful cash flow with double-digit to low-teens margins despite lower industrial activity; North American tinplate benefited from 5% food can volume growth, and 'Income and Other' was up 80% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
GAAP EPS Decline (One-Time Effect)
Reported GAAP earnings per share were $1.31 in the quarter versus $3.02 in the prior-year quarter; the prior-year quarter included a $2.32 per-share gain from the sale of Eviosis that materially inflated last year's GAAP EPS.
Segment Income Slightly Lower in Quarter
Segment income in the quarter was $420 million compared to $428 million in the prior-year quarter (≈-1.9%), with lower volumes in Transit Packaging partially offsetting European beverage strength.
Asia Volume Weakness from Border Conflict
Asian sales unit volumes were down 3% in the fourth quarter due entirely to the Thailand–Cambodia border conflict and related disruptions; management expects to lap this impact later in 2026 (around Q3).
Brazil Softness and Near-Term Uncertainty
Brazil volumes declined ~3% in the quarter and for the full year; consumer purchasing power is described as subdued and there are signs of consumption shifts (e.g., larger shareable bottles), introducing near-term risk to Americas results.
Start-up Costs and Inflation Headwinds
Start-up costs for capacity additions (Brazil, Greece, Spain) and ongoing inflation are expected to offset some North American volume gains in 2026 and weigh on near-term segment income; management did not quantify a fine-dollar amount.
Elevated Aluminum Prices and Tariff Uncertainty
Rising aluminum costs and tariff uncertainties (including trade actions affecting Canada/US supply) present a risk to margins and pricing dynamics; management noted percent margins can appear compressed when aluminum stays elevated (denominator effect).
Transit Packaging Impacted by Lower Industrial Activity
Transit Packaging saw lower income consistent with softer industrial activity; higher-margin equipment and tooling offerings remain affected by tariff adjustments despite the business still generating strong cash flow and margins.
Higher 2026 Capital Spending Reduces Near-Term Free Cash Flow
Planned 2026 capex of ~$550 million (up from the lower levels of the prior two years) is expected to reduce free cash flow from the record 2025 level to approximately $900 million in 2026, reflecting a meaningful but deliberate step-up in investment.
Company Guidance
The company guided Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.70–$1.80 and full‑year adjusted EPS of $7.90–$8.30, with full‑year net interest expense of about $350–$360 million (timing of buybacks dependent), an FX assumption with the euro at $1.17, a full‑year tax rate of ~25%, depreciation of ~$330 million, noncontrolling interest expense of ~$140 million (dividends and noncontrolling interest also noted at ~$110 million), and 2026 full‑year free cash flow estimated at ~ $900 million after ~$550 million of capital spending for growth projects; management expects to maintain net leverage at ~2.5x and, per the CFO, the guide assumes roughly $650 million of share repurchases (in addition to dividends).Crown Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are improving, led by strong and rising free cash flow and a sharp profit rebound in 2025. The main constraint is still elevated leverage (despite a downtrend) and cyclical earnings history, which limits the score from moving into the top tier.Income Statement
Revenue has been relatively stable with a return to growth in 2025 (up from 2024), following declines in 2023–2024. Profitability improved meaningfully in 2025, with net income rebounding sharply versus 2024 and margins holding at a solid level for the industry. A key weakness is earnings volatility over the cycle (including a net loss in 2021) and some compression in gross profitability in 2025 versus 2024, even as operating profit improved.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains the main constraint: debt is high relative to equity historically, though the debt load has been trending down from 2023 to 2025 and equity has increased, improving the overall capital structure. Asset levels are stable, but the company still carries meaningful balance-sheet risk due to the size of total debt, which can limit flexibility if operating conditions weaken.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength, with operating cash flow increasing in 2025 and free cash flow rising strongly across 2023–2025, supporting debt reduction and reinvestment capacity. Free cash flow is robust relative to recent net income and shows improving consistency after a weak 2022 (negative free cash flow). The main risk is historical variability—cash conversion has not been steady every year.80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.37B | 11.80B | 12.01B | 12.94B | 11.39B |
| Gross Profit | 2.27B | 2.54B | 2.46B | 2.30B | 2.37B |
| EBITDA | 2.01B | 1.90B | 1.82B | 1.75B | 279.00M |
| Net Income | 734.00M | 424.00M | 450.00M | 727.00M | -560.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.27B | 13.85B | 15.03B | 14.30B | 13.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 764.00M | 1.02B | 1.40B | 639.00M | 592.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.96B | 6.42B | 7.70B | 7.21B | 6.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.79B | 10.62B | 12.17B | 12.01B | 11.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.00B | 2.76B | 2.41B | 1.85B | 1.91B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.10B | 789.00M | 660.00M | -36.00M | 89.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.51B | 1.19B | 1.45B | 803.00M | 905.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -320.00M | -12.00M | -804.00M | -642.00M | 1.51B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.34B | -1.53B | 116.00M | -25.00M | -2.94B |
Crown Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
114.80
Price Trends
105.27
Positive
100.69
Positive
100.22
Positive
Market Momentum
2.54
Negative
66.50
Neutral
84.67
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 114.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 109.72, above the 50-day MA of 105.27, and above the 200-day MA of 100.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCK.
Crown Holdings Risk Analysis
Crown Holdings disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Crown Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Crown Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $21.51B | 27.85 | ― | 2.42% | 7.23% | -3.88% | |
71 Outperform | $13.16B | 17.88 | 25.61% | 1.01% | 2.94% | 893.70% | |
66 Neutral | $17.77B | 20.09 | 16.17% | 1.53% | 2.87% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $22.91B | 32.42 | 7.73% | 6.20% | 28.41% | -35.50% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $5.10B | 17.86 | 13.53% | 1.97% | 11.10% | 6.54% | |
58 Neutral | $3.86B | 8.84 | 13.99% | 2.91% | -3.93% | -27.37% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CCK
Crown Holdings
114.80
28.92
33.67%
BALL
Ball
66.53
16.53
33.05%
GPK
Graphic Packaging
12.52
-13.78
-52.40%
PKG
Packaging
237.21
32.64
15.96%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
48.42
-5.18
-9.66%
AMCR
Amcor
50.49
2.03
4.20%
Crown Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Crown Holdings to Redeem Debentures in December
Neutral
Nov 24, 2025
Crown Holdings, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Crown Cork & Seal Company, Inc., will redeem all outstanding 7-3/8% Debentures due 2026 on December 21, 2025. This redemption will result in the Debentures no longer being traded on the New York Stock Exchange after December 19, 2025, impacting the company’s financial operations and market activities.
The most recent analyst rating on (CCK) stock is a Buy with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Crown Holdings stock, see the CCK Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Crown Holdings Announces Cash Tender Offer Pricing
Neutral
Nov 19, 2025
On November 18, 2025, Crown Holdings, Inc. announced the pricing terms for a cash tender offer by its subsidiary, Crown Cork & Seal Company, Inc., to purchase its 7 3/8% Debentures due 2026. The tender offer, which expired on November 19, 2025, was part of the company’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its debt structure and financial flexibility.
The most recent analyst rating on (CCK) stock is a Buy with a $140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Crown Holdings stock, see the CCK Stock Forecast page.
Private Placements and Financing
Crown Holdings Announces Cash Tender Offer for Debentures
Neutral
Nov 12, 2025
On November 12, 2025, Crown Holdings, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Crown Cork & Seal Company, Inc., has initiated a cash tender offer to purchase its outstanding 7 3/8% Debentures due 2026. This move allows the company to manage its debt obligations effectively, potentially impacting the trading market for the remaining Debentures and offering stakeholders a chance to tender their holdings before the offer expires on November 18, 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (CCK) stock is a Buy with a $118.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Crown Holdings stock, see the CCK Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.