Graphic Packaging (GPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.59B
• Dividend Yield: 2.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: -6.28%
• EPS Growth: -7.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 301,760,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,653,241
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,115,766
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.73
• 1Y Price Target: $25.88
• Price Target Upside: 18.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Graphic Packaging's strengths include strong profitability margins and strategic initiatives supporting long-term growth. However, challenges such as declining revenue, high leverage, and immediate market pressures from inflation and consumer environment weigh on performance. The stock's undervaluation provides a potential opportunity despite short-term technical weaknesses.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow

Graphic Packaging is expected to see significant improvement in free cash flow due to a decline in capex needs following the completion of the Waco facility, benefiting shareholder returns.

Share Repurchase

The company is pivoting to share repurchases, which is expected to lead to increased free cash flow and provide upside potential.

Negative Factors

Paper Pricing Pressure

Current guidance for the new Waco, TX facility indicates that added capacity could be offset by paper pricing pressure, leading to less favorable outcomes.

Volume Declines

Graphic Packaging is being impacted by volume declines at their Consumer Packaged Goods and Quick Service Restaurant customers.

Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is a leading provider of paper-based packaging solutions for a wide variety of products to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. The company operates primarily in the paperboard packaging sector, offering an extensive range of packaging products including folding cartons, beverage carriers, and foodservice containers. Graphic Packaging is committed to sustainability, leveraging renewable resources to create innovative and environmentally friendly packaging solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

Graphic Packaging makes money through the manufacturing and sale of its paperboard packaging products to a diverse range of industries, primarily focusing on food and beverage companies. The company generates revenue by entering into long-term contracts with major consumer brands that require sustainable packaging solutions. These partnerships are crucial, as they ensure a steady demand for Graphic Packaging's products. Additionally, the company benefits from its vertically integrated supply chain, which allows it to control costs and maintain competitive pricing. By focusing on sustainability, Graphic Packaging also taps into the growing demand for eco-friendly packaging options, further driving its revenue growth.

Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Graphic Packaging exhibits strong profitability margins and return on equity. However, challenges include declining revenue, high leverage, and negative free cash flow. The balance sheet shows substantial debt, which could pose risks if not managed effectively.

Income Statement

Graphic Packaging shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The gross profit margin for TTM is approximately 41.0%, indicating a strong ability to manage production costs. However, the net profit margin for TTM stands at around 7.2%, showing room for improvement in overall profitability. Revenue has been declining, with a TTM revenue of $8.67B compared to $9.43B the previous year, reflecting a negative revenue growth rate. Despite the decline in revenue, the EBIT margin remains robust at 12.2% for TTM, suggesting effective cost management beyond COGS.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Graphic Packaging displays moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is high at approximately 1.81, indicating significant leverage which could be a risk factor. Return on equity (ROE) for TTM is around 19.6%, showing a strong return to shareholders. The equity ratio is about 27.5%, highlighting a moderate level of asset financing through equity which can be improved to enhance financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges in maintaining positive free cash flow, with TTM free cash flow at -$209M. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 1.07, indicating that operational cash generation is adequate relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate suggests difficulties in converting operational success into free cash flow, likely due to high capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.67B	8.81B	9.43B	9.44B	7.16B	6.56B
Gross Profit	1.88B	1.96B	2.19B	1.83B	1.07B	1.10B
EBITDA	1.60B	1.67B	1.95B	1.60B	1.04B	909.90M
Net Income	620.00M	658.00M	723.00M	522.00M	204.00M	167.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.50B	11.14B	11.18B	10.33B	10.46B	7.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	129.00M	157.00M	162.00M	150.00M	172.00M	179.00M
Total Debt	5.71B	5.25B	5.62B	5.25B	5.79B	3.64B
Total Liabilities	8.34B	8.13B	8.39B	8.18B	8.56B	5.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.16B	3.01B	2.78B	2.15B	1.89B	1.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-522.00M	-363.00M	340.00M	541.00M	-193.00M	199.30M
Operating Cash Flow	663.00M	840.00M	1.14B	1.09B	609.00M	845.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-329.00M	-342.00M	-1.02B	-435.00M	-2.39B	-668.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-337.00M	-489.00M	-106.00M	-666.00M	1.78B	-152.00M

Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 21.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.58, below the 50-day MA of 22.53, and below the 200-day MA of 26.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GPK.

Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SLGN	74 Outperform	$5.97B	20.69	14.52%	1.43%	1.99%	-5.30%
SON	71 Outperform	$4.51B	29.73	5.54%	4.63%	-4.58%	-61.14%
CCK	70 Outperform	$12.26B	22.63	21.30%	1.01%	0.90%	34.40%
SEE	68 Neutral	$4.71B	15.45	43.40%	2.50%	-2.45%	-16.55%
GPK	64 Neutral	$6.59B	10.71	20.62%	2.09%	-6.28%	-7.43%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.65B	11.30	-7.38%	3.01%	1.59%	-23.30%

Graphic Packaging Corporate Events

Graphic Packaging Approves Charter Amendments and Director Elections

On May 21, 2025, Graphic Packaging Holding Company stockholders approved amendments to the company’s charter, removing supermajority voting provisions. These changes, effective upon filing with the Delaware Secretary of State, also included amendments to the company’s by-laws, aligning them with the new charter provisions. The annual meeting also saw the election of Class III directors, ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor, approval of executive compensation, and a stockholder proposal for annual director elections.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Announces Leadership Change with Yost’s Return

On May 1, 2025, Maggie Bidlingmaier resigned from her role as Executive Vice President and President, Americas at Graphic Packaging Holding Company, with her employment concluding on June 2, 2025. Joseph P. Yost, who has extensive experience within the company, assumed her position on the same day, marking a return to a role he previously held. Yost’s new appointment comes with a salary increase and enhanced incentive targets, reflecting the expanded responsibilities of his position.