Graphic Packaging (GPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.05B
• Dividend Yield: 2.62%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: -3.93%
• EPS Growth: -27.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 296,248,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,604,053
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,082,922
• PEG Ratio: -1.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.94
• P/FCF Ratio: -22.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.44
• 1Y Price Target: $20.25
• Price Target Upside: 26.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.00 ▲(12.57% Upside)

Graphic Packaging's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial environment with declining revenue growth and high leverage. While the valuation is attractive with a low P/E ratio and decent dividend yield, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum. The earnings call provided a mixed outlook with strategic achievements but also highlighted ongoing challenges in key segments.

Positive Factors

Innovation and Market Expansion

The company's focus on innovation is opening new markets for paperboard packaging, which can drive long-term growth and enhance competitive positioning.

Strategic Facility Investment

The early completion of the Waco facility enhances competitive edge in recycled paperboard, supporting long-term operational efficiency and market leadership.

Focus on Free Cash Flow

The strategic focus on improving free cash flow by 2026 indicates a commitment to financial health and operational sustainability, crucial for future growth.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

The significant decline in revenue growth poses a risk to long-term business sustainability, impacting the company's ability to expand and invest in future opportunities.

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, especially in volatile market conditions, potentially impacting long-term stability.

Competitive Pricing Pressures

Intense pricing competition can erode margins and profitability, challenging the company's ability to maintain market share and financial performance over time.

Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is a leading provider of paper-based packaging solutions for a variety of consumer products. The company operates primarily in the packaging sector, focusing on the food, beverage, and consumer goods industries. GPK offers an extensive range of products, including folding cartons, containers, and specialty packaging, designed to enhance the presentation and protection of goods while promoting sustainability through recyclable materials.

How the Company Makes Money

Graphic Packaging generates revenue through the sale of its diverse packaging products to a wide array of industries, particularly in food service, beverage, and consumer goods. The company's revenue model is primarily based on direct sales to large manufacturers and retailers who require custom packaging solutions. Key revenue streams include contracts for large volume orders, which provide steady cash flow, and specialized packaging services that cater to specific customer needs. Additionally, Graphic Packaging benefits from strategic partnerships with major companies in the food and beverage industry, which often involve long-term contracts that secure consistent business. The company's focus on innovation in sustainable packaging also positions it favorably in a market increasingly driven by environmental considerations, potentially enhancing its competitiveness and earnings.

Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Graphic Packaging faces a challenging financial landscape. While profitability metrics remain stable, the significant decline in revenue growth and high leverage are concerning. The company's ability to generate cash flow is under pressure, which could impact future operations and growth. Strategic focus on improving revenue growth and managing leverage will be crucial for future stability and growth.

Income Statement

Graphic Packaging's income statement shows mixed results. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 30.1%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a reasonable net profit margin of 5.94% and an EBIT margin of 7.56%. The gross profit margin has decreased to 15.36% from previous periods, indicating pressure on cost management. Overall, while profitability metrics are stable, the significant drop in revenue growth is a key concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.80, suggesting significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity (ROE) remains healthy at 16.13%, indicating efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 27.66%, showing a moderate level of equity financing. Overall, while leverage is high, the company demonstrates strong equity returns.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -226.33% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.41, indicating that cash generation from operations is not fully covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.62, suggesting some cash flow constraints. Overall, cash flow management appears to be under pressure, with significant declines in free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.61B	8.81B	9.43B	9.44B	7.16B	6.56B
Gross Profit	1.75B	1.96B	2.12B	1.83B	1.07B	1.10B
EBITDA	1.43B	1.67B	1.79B	1.47B	901.00M	909.90M
Net Income	511.00M	658.00M	723.00M	522.00M	204.00M	167.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.88B	11.14B	11.18B	10.33B	10.46B	7.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	120.00M	157.00M	162.00M	150.00M	172.00M	179.00M
Total Debt	5.96B	5.46B	5.62B	5.50B	6.06B	3.87B
Total Liabilities	8.59B	8.13B	8.39B	8.18B	8.56B	5.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.29B	3.01B	2.78B	2.15B	1.89B	1.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-309.00M	-363.00M	340.00M	541.00M	-193.00M	179.00M
Operating Cash Flow	809.00M	840.00M	1.14B	1.09B	609.00M	825.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-976.00M	-342.00M	-1.02B	-435.00M	-2.39B	-648.00M
Financing Cash Flow	157.00M	-489.00M	-106.00M	-666.00M	1.78B	-152.00M

Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.00, below the 50-day MA of 18.74, and below the 200-day MA of 22.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPK.

Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$17.82B	20.03	19.68%	2.49%	7.30%	15.31%
SEE	70 Outperform	$5.38B	13.60	40.42%	2.18%	-1.22%	-0.76%
SLGN	66 Neutral	$4.21B	13.37	14.58%	2.03%	11.10%	6.54%
GPK	64 Neutral	$5.05B	10.04	16.24%	2.62%	-3.93%	-27.37%
SON	63 Neutral	$4.03B	4,211.34	6.39%	5.16%	8.31%	-99.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
OI	54 Neutral	$2.08B	―	-10.92%	―	-2.82%	65.31%

Graphic Packaging Corporate Events

Graphic Packaging Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, is a leading provider of sustainable consumer packaging solutions, primarily using renewable or recycled materials, serving major brands in the food, beverage, and consumer products sectors globally.

Graphic Packaging’s Earnings Call: Innovations Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call for Graphic Packaging Holding Company presented a mixed sentiment, with notable achievements such as the early completion of the Waco facility and ongoing innovation efforts. These positive developments were, however, counterbalanced by challenges like declining volumes, competitive pricing pressures, and weaknesses in key segments, prompting a revision in the company’s guidance.

Graphic Packaging Secures $400M Incremental Term Facility

On October 31, 2025, Graphic Packaging International, LLC entered into an Incremental Facility Amendment with Bank of America and Coöperatieve Rabobank, enabling a Delayed Draw Incremental Term Facility of up to $400 million. This facility, maturing on June 30, 2027, will be used to repay GPIL’s Senior Secured Notes due in 2026, impacting the company’s financial strategy by securing a first-priority lien on its assets.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Announces CFO Resignation and Interim Appointment

On October 6, 2025, Graphic Packaging Holding Company announced the resignation of Mr. Stephen R. Scherger as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective November 7, 2025. Mr. Charles D. Lischer will assume the role of Senior Vice President and Interim Chief Financial Officer on the same date, bringing extensive experience from his previous roles at Teradata Corporation and The Coca-Cola Company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Board Member Resigns in August 2025

On August 6, 2025, Mr. Dean A. Scarborough resigned from his position as a member of the Board of Directors at Graphic Packaging Holding Company. His resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company or its management.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.