Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK)
NYSE:GPK
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Graphic Packaging
(NYSE:GPK)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(11.79% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back mainly by weakened profitability, elevated leverage, and historically inconsistent free cash flow. Technicals are moderately supportive in the short term, and the ~4.1% dividend yield plus reaffirmed full-year guidance/capex and cost actions provide some offset, but near-term inflation, pricing pressure, and execution risk remain significant.
Positive Factors
Vertical integration
Owning paperboard production and supplying its converting operations is a durable structural advantage. It reduces input sourcing risk, improves supply continuity for customers, and can protect margins versus peers reliant on purchased substrates, supporting resilience through commodity cycles and long-term customer contracts.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High leverage materially limits strategic optionality and increases sensitivity to earnings volatility. At ~4.4x net leverage, interest and covenant pressures can constrain investment, force conservative capital allocation, and amplify downside if margins or volumes weaken, making balance-sheet repair a multi-quarter execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vertical integration
Owning paperboard production and supplying its converting operations is a durable structural advantage. It reduces input sourcing risk, improves supply continuity for customers, and can protect margins versus peers reliant on purchased substrates, supporting resilience through commodity cycles and long-term customer contracts.
Read all positive factors
Graphic Packaging Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much sales come from each of the company’s business lines (for example consumer packaging, foodservice, beverage and any specialty segments). Helps investors see where growth and risk are concentrated, whether the company is diversified across end markets, and which segments are driving margin and pricing power — important for evaluating demand sensitivity to consumer trends and commodity cycles.
Shows how much sales come from each of the company’s business lines (for example consumer packaging, foodservice, beverage and any specialty segments). Helps investors see where growth and risk are concentrated, whether the company is diversified across end markets, and which segments are driving margin and pricing power — important for evaluating demand sensitivity to consumer trends and commodity cycles.
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The Fly
The FlyGraphic Packaging (GPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.97B
Dividend Yield2.91%
Average Volume (3M)7.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth-0.17%
EPS Growth-55.17%
CountryUS
Employees23,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.93
Shares Outstanding295,887,400
10 Day Avg. Volume7,335,972
30 Day Avg. Volume7,313,274
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.52
P/FCF Ratio-55.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.80Price Target Upside9.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.58B
Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paper...
How the Company Makes Money
Graphic Packaging primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling fiber-based packaging products to brand owners, retailers, and foodservice operators. Its core revenue stream comes from the sale of paperboard packaging—especially folding carto...
Graphic Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear strategic progress and several tangible positives (modest top-line growth, stronger innovation and sustainability momentum, Waco mill ramp, disciplined capital re-prioritization, delivery of initial cost savings and materially improved cash flow versus prior year) with meaningful near-term headwinds (a large YoY EBITDA decline, margin pressure from competitive pricing and commodity inflation, operational disruptions and one-time charges, and elevated leverage). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and outlined a credible execution plan to improve profitability and generate substantial free cash flow, but the immediate quarter showed pronounced execution and cost/inflation challenges that must be addressed to realize the expected recovery.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 2% year-over-year to $2.2 billion in Q1 2026, with volumes up 1% (+1% YoY) and a $50 million benefit from favorable foreign exchange.
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year EBITDA Decline
Adjusted EBITDA of $232 million represented a $133 million decline versus Q1 2025, driven by price, volume/mix headwinds and unfavorable net performance items.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 2% year-over-year to $2.2 billion in Q1 2026, with volumes up 1% (+1% YoY) and a $50 million benefit from favorable foreign exchange.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Graphic Packaging reaffirmed 2026 guidance with adjusted EBITDA of $1.05–$1.25 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $700–$800 million, while targeting ~ $450 million of capital expenditures, reducing capex to ~5% of sales or less, paying down about $500 million of debt and maintaining the dividend. Near-term, Q2 adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be $230–$250 million with volumes in Q2 and the full year seen roughly down 1% to up 1% and pricing “similar to Q1”; management called out incremental inflation of ~$10 million in Q1 and another ~$10 million in Q2 ( ~$30 million higher in H1 vs original expectations) and ~$60–$65 million of incremental inflation for the full year versus prior plans. Q1 results included sales of $2.2 billion (up 2% y/y), volumes up 1%, adjusted EBITDA $232 million, adjusted EPS $0.09, adjusted cash flow of negative $183 million (vs negative $442 million a year ago), ending net debt of $5.6 billion (4.4x leverage), an expected full-year tax rate of ~25%, a $60/ton cup-stock price increase effective May 8, a $60 million cost‑savings program ( ~$10 million realized in Q1), an inventory target of 17–18% of sales this year (down from 20.5% at end-2025) toward a 15–16% longer‑term goal, and one-time actions (≈$40 million noncash write-off) that avoid roughly $200 million of future capex.Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
49
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.65B | 8.62B | 8.81B | 9.43B | 9.44B | 7.16B |
| Gross Profit | 1.47B | 1.61B | 2.00B | 2.19B | 1.82B | 1.08B |
| EBITDA | 1.22B | 1.34B | 1.67B | 1.79B | 1.47B | 895.00M |
| Net Income | 274.00M | 444.00M | 658.00M | 723.00M | 522.00M | 204.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.69B | 11.78B | 11.14B | 11.18B | 10.33B | 10.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 189.00M | 261.00M | 157.00M | 162.00M | 150.00M | 172.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.75B | 5.57B | 5.46B | 5.62B | 5.50B | 6.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.44B | 8.44B | 8.13B | 8.39B | 8.18B | 8.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.25B | 3.34B | 3.01B | 2.78B | 2.15B | 1.89B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 153.00M | -81.00M | -363.00M | 340.00M | 541.00M | -193.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 915.00M | 854.00M | 840.00M | 1.14B | 1.09B | 609.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -544.00M | -745.00M | -342.00M | -1.02B | -435.00M | -2.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -319.00M | -18.00M | -489.00M | -106.00M | -666.00M | 1.78B |
Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis
Positive
9.84
Price Trends
9.74
Positive
11.55
Negative
14.76
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
52.97
Neutral
50.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.03, above the 50-day MA of 9.74, and below the 200-day MA of 14.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPK.
Graphic Packaging Risk Analysis
Graphic Packaging disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Graphic Packaging reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $19.05B | 27.46 | 15.95% | 2.42% | 7.86% | -13.88% | |
65 Neutral | $4.81B | 19.61 | 30.14% | 4.33% | 17.41% | 167.71% | |
62 Neutral | $4.01B | 16.26 | 12.47% | 1.97% | 9.55% | -1.62% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $2.97B | -17.15 | 8.38% | 2.91% | -0.17% | -55.17% | |
42 Neutral | $1.38B | -5.50 | -14.49% | ― | -1.61% | 3.42% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GPK
Graphic Packaging
10.17
-11.78
-53.67%
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PKG
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29.79
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SLGN
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37.91
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-29.12%
SON
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49.37
5.67
12.98%
Graphic Packaging Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Graphic Packaging Appoints Jeffrey Stafeil to Board of Directors
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
Effective March 8, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company appointed Jeffrey M. Stafeil to its Board of Directors as an independent Class I director, with a term expiring in 2026. Stafeil has not yet been assigned to any board committee, and the c...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Graphic Packaging Amends Credit Agreement to Increase Flexibility
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Graphic Packaging and several subsidiaries amended their existing credit agreement to secure greater financial flexibility in light of an aggressive inventory reduction strategy that temporarily depresses EBITDA and raises th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.