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Graphic Packaging
(NYSE:GPK)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(16.87% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/17/26
The score is primarily constrained by weakened profitability, inconsistent free cash flow, and elevated leverage, which raise risk if margin recovery stalls. Offsetting factors include improving/constructive near-term technicals, a supportive valuation (low P/E and ~4% yield), and reaffirmed 2026 guidance with concrete cost, capex, and debt-paydown actions—though near-term inflation and pricing pressure remain key swing factors.
Positive Factors
Vertical integration & manufacturing footprint
Owning paperboard mills plus converting and finishing plants provides durable supply security, cost control and faster customer qualification. This vertical integration supports margin resilience versus pure converters, enables capture of upstream value, and reduces disruption risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High net leverage constrains strategic flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate vulnerability if margins lag. Even with planned 2026 paydown, the balance sheet remains sensitive to execution and cyclical demand, increasing risk that weak quarters could impede deleveraging and capital returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vertical integration & manufacturing footprint
Owning paperboard mills plus converting and finishing plants provides durable supply security, cost control and faster customer qualification. This vertical integration supports margin resilience versus pure converters, enables capture of upstream value, and reduces disruption risk over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Graphic Packaging Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much sales come from each of the company’s business lines (for example consumer packaging, foodservice, beverage and any specialty segments). Helps investors see where growth and risk are concentrated, whether the company is diversified across end markets, and which segments are driving margin and pricing power — important for evaluating demand sensitivity to consumer trends and commodity cycles.
Shows how much sales come from each of the company’s business lines (for example consumer packaging, foodservice, beverage and any specialty segments). Helps investors see where growth and risk are concentrated, whether the company is diversified across end markets, and which segments are driving margin and pricing power — important for evaluating demand sensitivity to consumer trends and commodity cycles.
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The Fly
The FlyGraphic Packaging (GPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.21B
Dividend Yield2.91%
Average Volume (3M)7.14M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth-0.17%
EPS Growth-55.17%
CountryUS
Employees23,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.93
Shares Outstanding295,887,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,965,999
30 Day Avg. Volume7,136,524
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.52
P/FCF Ratio-55.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.10Price Target Upside12.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.62B
Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, along with its subsidiaries, provides extensive fiber-based packaging solutions for clients across the food, beverage, foodservice, and broader consumer product industries. The company's operations are divided in...
How the Company Makes Money
Graphic Packaging makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling fiber-based packaging products to brand owners, foodservice operators, and consumer packaged goods companies. Its core revenue streams typically include: (1) Folding cartons: rev...
Graphic Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear strategic progress and several tangible positives (modest top-line growth, stronger innovation and sustainability momentum, Waco mill ramp, disciplined capital re-prioritization, delivery of initial cost savings and materially improved cash flow versus prior year) with meaningful near-term headwinds (a large YoY EBITDA decline, margin pressure from competitive pricing and commodity inflation, operational disruptions and one-time charges, and elevated leverage). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and outlined a credible execution plan to improve profitability and generate substantial free cash flow, but the immediate quarter showed pronounced execution and cost/inflation challenges that must be addressed to realize the expected recovery.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 2% year-over-year to $2.2 billion in Q1 2026, with volumes up 1% (+1% YoY) and a $50 million benefit from favorable foreign exchange.
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year EBITDA Decline
Adjusted EBITDA of $232 million represented a $133 million decline versus Q1 2025, driven by price, volume/mix headwinds and unfavorable net performance items.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 2% year-over-year to $2.2 billion in Q1 2026, with volumes up 1% (+1% YoY) and a $50 million benefit from favorable foreign exchange.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Graphic Packaging reaffirmed 2026 guidance with adjusted EBITDA of $1.05–$1.25 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $700–$800 million, while targeting ~ $450 million of capital expenditures, reducing capex to ~5% of sales or less, paying down about $500 million of debt and maintaining the dividend. Near-term, Q2 adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be $230–$250 million with volumes in Q2 and the full year seen roughly down 1% to up 1% and pricing “similar to Q1”; management called out incremental inflation of ~$10 million in Q1 and another ~$10 million in Q2 ( ~$30 million higher in H1 vs original expectations) and ~$60–$65 million of incremental inflation for the full year versus prior plans. Q1 results included sales of $2.2 billion (up 2% y/y), volumes up 1%, adjusted EBITDA $232 million, adjusted EPS $0.09, adjusted cash flow of negative $183 million (vs negative $442 million a year ago), ending net debt of $5.6 billion (4.4x leverage), an expected full-year tax rate of ~25%, a $60/ton cup-stock price increase effective May 8, a $60 million cost‑savings program ( ~$10 million realized in Q1), an inventory target of 17–18% of sales this year (down from 20.5% at end-2025) toward a 15–16% longer‑term goal, and one-time actions (≈$40 million noncash write-off) that avoid roughly $200 million of future capex.Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
49
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.65B | 8.62B | 8.81B | 9.43B | 9.44B | 7.16B |
| Gross Profit | 1.47B | 1.61B | 2.00B | 2.19B | 1.82B | 1.08B |
| EBITDA | 1.15B | 1.34B | 1.67B | 1.79B | 1.47B | 895.00M |
| Net Income | 274.00M | 444.00M | 658.00M | 723.00M | 522.00M | 204.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.69B | 11.78B | 11.14B | 11.18B | 10.33B | 10.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 189.00M | 261.00M | 157.00M | 162.00M | 150.00M | 172.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.75B | 5.57B | 5.46B | 5.62B | 5.50B | 6.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.44B | 8.44B | 8.13B | 8.39B | 8.18B | 8.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.25B | 3.34B | 3.01B | 2.78B | 2.15B | 1.89B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 153.00M | -81.00M | -363.00M | 340.00M | 541.00M | -193.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 915.00M | 854.00M | 840.00M | 1.14B | 1.09B | 609.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -544.00M | -745.00M | -342.00M | -1.02B | -435.00M | -2.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -319.00M | -18.00M | -489.00M | -106.00M | -666.00M | 1.78B |
Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis
Positive
9.84
Price Trends
10.29
Positive
10.37
Positive
13.17
Negative
Market Momentum
0.10
Positive
54.66
Neutral
63.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.63, below the 50-day MA of 10.29, and below the 200-day MA of 13.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPK.
Graphic Packaging Risk Analysis
Graphic Packaging disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Graphic Packaging reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $21.22B | 28.87 | 15.95% | 2.42% | 7.86% | -13.88% | |
65 Neutral | $5.01B | 4.88 | 30.14% | 4.33% | 17.41% | 167.71% | |
63 Neutral | $4.90B | 17.44 | 12.47% | 1.97% | 9.55% | -1.62% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $3.21B | 11.67 | 8.38% | 2.91% | -0.17% | -55.17% | |
43 Neutral | $1.50B | -8.02 | -14.49% | ― | -1.61% | 3.42% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GPK
Graphic Packaging
10.85
-10.18
-48.41%
OI
O-I Glass
9.79
-5.93
-37.72%
PKG
Packaging
238.20
41.78
21.27%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
46.39
-8.99
-16.24%
SON
Sonoco Products
57.42
13.09
29.53%
Graphic Packaging Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Graphic Packaging Shareholders Approve Governance and Rights Reforms
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
At its June 11, 2026 annual meeting, Graphic Packaging shareholders approved amendments to the company’s charter to declassify the board over three years, moving to annual director elections starting with the 2029 meeting, and to allow one o...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Graphic Packaging Appoints New Board Chairman After Retirement
Neutral
Jun 11, 2026
Graphic Packaging announced that, effective June 11, 2026, Chairman Philip R. Martens retired from the board following the company’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders, ending a tenure that began as director in 2013 and chair in 2016. The board ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Graphic Packaging Secures Long-Term Tax-Exempt Green Bond Financing
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Graphic Packaging International entered into a loan agreement with the Mission Economic Development Corporation tied to MEDC’s issuance of about $141.4 million in tax‑exempt green bonds due 2064, with a mandatory purch...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.