Graphic Packaging (GPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.32B
• Dividend Yield: 2.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.86M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: -3.93%
• EPS Growth: -27.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 295,123,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,654,078
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,858,173
• PEG Ratio: -1.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.94
• P/FCF Ratio: -22.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.19
• 1Y Price Target: $17.14
• Price Target Upside: 15.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.50 ▲(4.87% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by pressured cash flow and slowing revenue growth, alongside bearish technicals with the stock trading below major moving averages. These risks are partially offset by an inexpensive valuation (low P/E and ~3% yield) and earnings-call guidance that emphasizes materially higher free cash flow, lower capex, and a clear deleveraging plan—though near-term demand, pricing, and inventory headwinds remain significant.

Positive Factors

World-class manufacturing assets

Top-tier, recently commissioned mills materially improve unit economics and product consistency. Durable asset quality supports lower per-unit cost, higher throughput and stronger customer retention across food and beverage customers, providing a lasting operational advantage as volumes recover.

Improving cash generation plan

A sustained step-down in capex and explicit FCF guidance point to structural cash-flow improvement if executed. Lower ongoing capex targets (≤5% of sales) and inventory actions can free cash to delever, rebuild liquidity and fund returns, improving financial durability over multiple years.

Innovation and commercial strength

A focused commercialization engine and customer-centric innovation create differentiated product offerings and sustainable modest growth. Proprietary packaging solutions strengthen customer relationships and pricing power in non-commodity segments, supporting resilient revenue mix over time.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

High leverage amplifies interest expense and reduces financial flexibility during cyclical downturns. Even with a planned paydown, leverage may remain elevated through 2026, constraining investment, rating improvement and the pace of shareholder returns until sustained FCF is evident.

Weak historical cash conversion

Deep free-cash-flow deterioration and poor cash conversion increase execution risk for deleveraging plans. Structural improvement depends on reliable inventory, working capital and operating performance; past cash weakness means paydown targets and capital-return plans face nontrivial execution risk.

Bleached paperboard overcapacity

Persistent industry overcapacity suppresses pricing across finished packaging and drives cross-grade competitive pressure. This structural headwind can erode margins over multiple quarters, limiting the firm's ability to restore prior margin levels absent consolidation or demand improvement.

Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. The company offers coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers; and paperboard packaging products, such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers primarily to consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies; and barrier packaging products that protect against moisture, hot and cold temperature, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, insects, and other potential product-damaging factors. It also offers various laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures that are produced from its CUK, CRB, and SBS, as well as other grades of paperboards that are purchased from third-party suppliers; designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines that package bottles and cans, and non-beverage consumer products; and installs its packaging machines at customer plants and provides support, service, and performance monitoring of the machines. The company markets its products primarily through sales offices and broker arrangements with third parties in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Graphic Packaging generates revenue primarily through the sale of its packaging products, which include folding cartons, paperboard, and other related packaging materials. The company serves a diverse range of customers in the food and beverage sector, as well as in household and personal care markets. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major clients, which provide a stable income base, and spot sales to various customers for immediate needs. Additionally, Graphic Packaging benefits from economies of scale in production and sourcing of raw materials, which helps to lower costs and increase profitability. Strategic partnerships with major brands and retailers also enhance its market position and contribute to revenue growth, as these collaborations often lead to customized packaging solutions that drive demand.

Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is stable (net margin 5.94%, EBIT margin 7.56%) and ROE is healthy (16.13%), but fundamentals are pressured by a sharp revenue growth decline (-30.1%), high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.80), and significant free cash flow deterioration (FCF growth -226.33%, operating cash flow to net income 0.41).

Income Statement

Graphic Packaging's income statement shows mixed results. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 30.1%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a reasonable net profit margin of 5.94% and an EBIT margin of 7.56%. The gross profit margin has decreased to 15.36% from previous periods, indicating pressure on cost management. Overall, while profitability metrics are stable, the significant drop in revenue growth is a key concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.80, suggesting significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity (ROE) remains healthy at 16.13%, indicating efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 27.66%, showing a moderate level of equity financing. Overall, while leverage is high, the company demonstrates strong equity returns.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -226.33% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.41, indicating that cash generation from operations is not fully covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.62, suggesting some cash flow constraints. Overall, cash flow management appears to be under pressure, with significant declines in free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.61B	8.81B	9.43B	9.44B	7.16B	6.56B
Gross Profit	1.77B	2.00B	2.19B	1.82B	1.08B	1.13B
EBITDA	1.41B	1.67B	1.79B	1.47B	895.00M	842.10M
Net Income	511.00M	658.00M	723.00M	522.00M	204.00M	167.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.88B	11.14B	11.18B	10.33B	10.46B	7.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	120.00M	157.00M	162.00M	150.00M	172.00M	179.00M
Total Debt	5.96B	5.46B	5.62B	5.50B	6.06B	3.87B
Total Liabilities	8.59B	8.13B	8.39B	8.18B	8.56B	5.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.29B	3.01B	2.78B	2.15B	1.89B	1.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-309.00M	-363.00M	340.00M	541.00M	-193.00M	179.00M
Operating Cash Flow	809.00M	840.00M	1.14B	1.09B	609.00M	825.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-976.00M	-342.00M	-1.02B	-435.00M	-2.39B	-648.00M
Financing Cash Flow	157.00M	-489.00M	-106.00M	-666.00M	1.78B	-152.00M

Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.25, below the 50-day MA of 15.37, and below the 200-day MA of 19.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPK.

Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$20.02B	25.93	―	2.42%	7.23%	-3.88%
SEE	71 Outperform	$6.17B	15.57	40.42%	1.94%	-1.22%	-0.76%
SLGN	68 Neutral	$4.56B	14.66	14.58%	1.97%	11.10%	6.54%
SON	63 Neutral	$4.73B	4,948.45	6.39%	4.33%	8.31%	-99.39%
GPK	62 Neutral	$4.32B	8.63	16.24%	2.91%	-3.93%	-27.37%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
OI	54 Neutral	$2.35B	-16.43	-10.92%	―	-2.82%	65.31%

Graphic Packaging Corporate Events

Graphic Packaging Announces Transition of Key Legal Executive

On January 5, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company began a leadership transition involving Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary Lauren S. Tashma, who relinquished her corporate role effective January 6, 2026, while remaining an officer or director of certain subsidiaries and an employee through March 1, 2026. The company expects Tashma to receive separation benefits under its Executive Severance Plan, enter into a release agreement covering the terms of her departure and a general release of claims, and provide transition services under a separate agreement to support ongoing matters, signaling an orderly legal and governance transition for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging CEO Outlines New Vision 2030 Strategy

On January 5, 2026, newly appointed President and CEO Robbert Rietbroek issued a letter to employees outlining his strategic priorities for Graphic Packaging as it moves beyond its Vision 2025 program and targets its Vision 2030 goals. Rietbroek, a former senior executive at major consumer goods companies and a long-time customer of Graphic Packaging, acknowledged both the company’s strengths and its challenges, citing declining volumes, margin pressure, elevated debt and a falling share price as signals that performance must improve. He set out three main focus areas: accelerating innovation to capture growth and provide sustainable packaging alternatives beyond traditional markets, rigorously reviewing and optimizing the company’s operational footprint and cost structure with the help of AlixPartners, and sharpening emphasis on earnings and free cash flow by lowering capital spending, reducing inventories, cutting leverage and aiming for an investment-grade credit rating by 2030. The plan underscores a push to restore growth, enhance margins and strengthen balance-sheet resilience, with the explicit goal of creating value for employees, customers, vendors, shareholders and bondholders while reinforcing the company’s leadership in sustainable consumer packaging.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Approves Retention Package for Key Executive

On December 19, 2025, Graphic Packaging’s Compensation and Management Committee approved a retention package for Joseph P. Yost, Executive Vice President and President, Americas, of the company’s operating unit, Graphic Packaging International. The package includes a $2 million cash retention bonus, payable in early 2027 if Yost remains employed or in certain qualifying termination scenarios, and $2 million in service-based restricted stock units granted effective January 2, 2026, which will vest on January 2, 2027 contingent on his continued employment. The move reinforces the company’s efforts to retain key leadership in its Americas business, aligning Yost’s incentives with long-term performance and operational continuity for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Appoints New CEO to Drive Turnaround

The independent directors of Graphic Packaging announced a leadership transition, appointing Robbert Rietbroek as president and chief executive officer after a period in which the company’s performance and share price, down nearly 50% over the past year, fell short of expectations. The board said the change followed a confidential search and reflects a need for fresh leadership to better capitalize on recent capital investments, respond to macroeconomic and industry headwinds, and restore long-term shareholder value. Rietbroek, a veteran of major consumer products companies including PepsiCo, Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, Primo Water and Primo Brands, is tasked with aligning the company’s capabilities with shifting consumer trends, accelerating innovation, optimizing costs and improving cash flow within the framework of its Vision 2030 plan. To support these efforts, Graphic Packaging has engaged advisory firm AlixPartners to identify further performance-improvement opportunities, with the board expressing confidence that the new CEO can return EBITDA margins to recently demonstrated levels and position the company for renewed growth and value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Announces CEO Transition Effective January 2026

On December 8, 2025, Graphic Packaging announced that Michael P. Doss will step down as President and CEO on December 31, 2025, with Robbert E. Rietbroek succeeding him effective January 1, 2026. Rietbroek, with over 25 years of experience at Fortune 500 companies, is expected to drive organic growth and world-class execution, aligning with the company’s Vision 2030 goals. This leadership transition is seen as a strategic move to build on the strong foundation laid by Doss, who has significantly contributed to the company’s growth and transformation over his decade-long tenure as CEO.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.