Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK)
NYSE:GPK
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Graphic Packaging
(NYSE:GPK)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(1.63% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is held back primarily by weak technicals and a mixed financial profile—compressed margins, elevated leverage, and recent negative free cash flow. Offsetting factors include attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and earnings-call guidance pointing to a 2026 free-cash-flow rebound and lower capex, though near-term demand/pricing and inventory curtailment risks temper confidence.
Positive Factors
High-quality manufacturing assets
The Waco and Kalamazoo ramps create durable vertical integration in recycled paperboard, reducing reliance on third-party substrates. Superior internal capacity supports long-term cost control, sustainability positioning, and reliable supply for large CPG and foodservice customers, aiding margin stability.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High net leverage and sizeable debt constrain strategic flexibility and increase sensitivity to slower cash conversion or cost shocks. Elevated interest expense reduces free cash available for reinvestment or dividends and makes deleveraging reliant on sustained operational improvement and FCF delivery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High-quality manufacturing assets
The Waco and Kalamazoo ramps create durable vertical integration in recycled paperboard, reducing reliance on third-party substrates. Superior internal capacity supports long-term cost control, sustainability positioning, and reliable supply for large CPG and foodservice customers, aiding margin stability.
Read all positive factors
Graphic Packaging (GPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.82B
Dividend Yield2.91%
Average Volume (3M)7.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth-2.16%
EPS Growth-31.44%
CountryUS
Employees23,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.29
Shares Outstanding295,740,900
10 Day Avg. Volume5,462,500
30 Day Avg. Volume7,544,570
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.52
P/FCF Ratio-55.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.95Price Target Upside21.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.45B
Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paper...
How the Company Makes Money
Graphic Packaging primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling fiber-based packaging products to brand owners, retailers, and foodservice operators. Its core revenue stream comes from the sale of paperboard packaging—especially folding carto...
Graphic Packaging Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Graphic Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call outlines clear positives — world-class manufacturing assets (Waco/Kalamazoo) now ramping, materially lower capex in 2026, strong free cash flow guidance ($700M–$800M), a defined transformation plan, and a commitment to deleveraging — but also highlights significant near-term headwinds: weak demand and competitive pricing (particularly from bleached paperboard overcapacity), elevated inventory requiring production curtailments, higher-than-expected Waco project costs, and elevated leverage/interest costs. Management presents credible levers to restore margins and generate cash, yet multiple transitory and structural challenges leave the outlook balanced between opportunity and risk.Positive Updates
Strong asset base and Waco/Kalamazoo ramp
Waco is substantially complete and already producing top-quality recycled paperboard; Waco and Kalamazoo described as the highest quality and most efficient recycled paperboard facilities in North America. Waco total project cost now estimated at $1.67B (including ~$80M capitalized interest) with spending through 2025 of ~$1.58B; startup costs came in ~ $40M in 2025 (below prior expectation).
Negative Updates
Weak demand and pricing pressure
Near-term market weakness driven by affordability and macro uncertainty; Q4 volumes and pricing each down slightly (less than 1%) and company assumes continued competitive pricing pressure in 2026 that represents roughly a $150M headwind at the midpoint of guidance.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong asset base and Waco/Kalamazoo ramp
Waco is substantially complete and already producing top-quality recycled paperboard; Waco and Kalamazoo described as the highest quality and most efficient recycled paperboard facilities in North America. Waco total project cost now estimated at $1.67B (including ~$80M capitalized interest) with spending through 2025 of ~$1.58B; startup costs came in ~ $40M in 2025 (below prior expectation).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 net sales of $8.4–$8.6 billion (volumes down 1% to up 1%, with innovation ~2% of sales and market volumes ~2% down at the midpoint), adjusted EBITDA $1.05–$1.25 billion (or $1.2–$1.4 billion pro forma excluding the one‑time production curtailments to remove ≈$260 million of paperboard/finished‑goods inventory), adjusted free cash flow $700–$800 million, adjusted EPS $0.75–$1.15, and capex of ≈$450 million (down ≈$485 million vs. 2025 and targeted at ≤5% of sales going forward). Quarterly/other assumptions include Q1 adjusted EBITDA $200–$240 million, H1 ≈40–45% of full‑year EBITDA, scheduled maintenance ~ $15 million in H1 and ~$10 million in Q4, cash interest $255–$275 million, other working capital ~ $5 million (midpoint), an effective tax rate ~25% (Q1 slightly higher), restoration of ~ $100 million of incentive compensation (paid in 2027), a year‑end 2025 net leverage of 3.8x with a planned ~$500 million debt paydown in 2026, and the longer‑term goal of investment‑grade by 2030; 2025 reference metrics cited: net sales $8.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA ≈$1.4 billion, adjusted EPS $1.80, total 2025 capex $935 million, and Waco project estimated spend $1.67 billion (spend through 2025 $1.58 billion, capitalized interest ≈$80 million).Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.62B | 8.81B | 9.43B | 9.44B | 7.16B |
| Gross Profit | 1.61B | 2.00B | 2.19B | 1.82B | 1.08B |
| EBITDA | 1.34B | 1.67B | 1.79B | 1.47B | 895.00M |
| Net Income | 444.00M | 658.00M | 723.00M | 522.00M | 204.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.78B | 11.14B | 11.18B | 10.33B | 10.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 261.00M | 157.00M | 162.00M | 150.00M | 172.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.57B | 5.46B | 5.62B | 5.50B | 6.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.44B | 8.13B | 8.39B | 8.18B | 8.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.34B | 3.01B | 2.78B | 2.15B | 1.89B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -81.00M | -363.00M | 340.00M | 541.00M | -193.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 854.00M | 840.00M | 1.14B | 1.09B | 609.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -745.00M | -342.00M | -1.02B | -435.00M | -2.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.00M | -489.00M | -106.00M | -666.00M | 1.78B |
Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.84
Price Trends
10.70
Negative
12.90
Negative
16.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.25
Negative
47.59
Neutral
55.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.51, below the 50-day MA of 10.70, and below the 200-day MA of 16.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GPK.
Graphic Packaging Risk Analysis
Graphic Packaging disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Graphic Packaging reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
A write-down of goodwill may adversely affect the Company's operating results. Q4, 2025
Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $19.00B | 27.46 | 16.02% | 2.42% | 7.86% | -13.84% | |
65 Neutral | $4.94B | 19.61 | 30.14% | 4.33% | 17.41% | 167.71% | |
62 Neutral | $4.29B | 16.26 | 16.75% | 1.97% | 9.55% | -1.63% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $2.82B | 10.06 | 13.67% | 2.91% | -2.16% | -31.44% | |
44 Neutral | $1.40B | -5.50 | -12.17% | ― | -1.61% | 3.42% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GPK
Graphic Packaging
9.70
-11.79
-54.87%
OI
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9.49
-3.76
-28.38%
PKG
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218.06
41.19
23.29%
SLGN
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39.72
-13.84
-25.84%
SON
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50.06
7.12
16.57%
Graphic Packaging Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Graphic Packaging Appoints Jeffrey Stafeil to Board of Directors
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
Effective March 8, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company appointed Jeffrey M. Stafeil to its Board of Directors as an independent Class I director, with a term expiring in 2026. Stafeil has not yet been assigned to any board committee, and the c...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Graphic Packaging Amends Credit Agreement to Increase Flexibility
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Graphic Packaging and several subsidiaries amended their existing credit agreement to secure greater financial flexibility in light of an aggressive inventory reduction strategy that temporarily depresses EBITDA and raises th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.