Graphic Packaging (GPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.46B
• Dividend Yield: 2.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.15M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.53
• Revenue Growth: -3.93%
• EPS Growth: -27.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 295,123,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,073,270
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,152,220
• PEG Ratio: -1.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.94
• P/FCF Ratio: -22.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.23
• 1Y Price Target: $19.00
• Price Target Upside: 25.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.91
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.56B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▲(9.20% Upside)

Graphic Packaging's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial landscape with stable profitability but declining revenue growth and high leverage. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while the valuation suggests potential undervaluation. The earnings call and corporate events provide a positive outlook with strategic initiatives and leadership changes aimed at improving performance.

Positive Factors

Innovation and Market Expansion

The company's focus on innovation is driving growth in new markets, which can enhance long-term revenue streams and competitive positioning.

Strategic Leadership Change

The new CEO is expected to drive growth and align with Vision 2030, potentially improving operational efficiency and long-term value creation.

Waco Facility Completion

Early completion of the Waco facility enhances competitive edge in recycled paperboard, supporting long-term strategic goals and market leadership.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

A significant drop in revenue growth can impact future profitability and market confidence, challenging the company's ability to sustain its market position.

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses risks to financial stability, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns.

Leadership Transition Concerns

Concerns over the CEO transition process may affect investor confidence and highlight governance issues, impacting long-term strategic execution.

Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. The company offers coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers; and paperboard packaging products, such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers primarily to consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies; and barrier packaging products that protect against moisture, hot and cold temperature, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, insects, and other potential product-damaging factors. It also offers various laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures that are produced from its CUK, CRB, and SBS, as well as other grades of paperboards that are purchased from third-party suppliers; designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines that package bottles and cans, and non-beverage consumer products; and installs its packaging machines at customer plants and provides support, service, and performance monitoring of the machines. The company markets its products primarily through sales offices and broker arrangements with third parties in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Graphic Packaging generates revenue primarily through the sale of its packaging products, which include folding cartons, paperboard, and other related packaging materials. The company serves a diverse range of customers in the food and beverage sector, as well as in household and personal care markets. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major clients, which provide a stable income base, and spot sales to various customers for immediate needs. Additionally, Graphic Packaging benefits from economies of scale in production and sourcing of raw materials, which helps to lower costs and increase profitability. Strategic partnerships with major brands and retailers also enhance its market position and contribute to revenue growth, as these collaborations often lead to customized packaging solutions that drive demand.

Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Graphic Packaging faces a challenging financial landscape. While profitability metrics remain stable, the significant decline in revenue growth and high leverage are concerning. The company's ability to generate cash flow is under pressure, which could impact future operations and growth. Strategic focus on improving revenue growth and managing leverage will be crucial for future stability and growth.

Income Statement

Graphic Packaging's income statement shows mixed results. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 30.1%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a reasonable net profit margin of 5.94% and an EBIT margin of 7.56%. The gross profit margin has decreased to 15.36% from previous periods, indicating pressure on cost management. Overall, while profitability metrics are stable, the significant drop in revenue growth is a key concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.80, suggesting significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity (ROE) remains healthy at 16.13%, indicating efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 27.66%, showing a moderate level of equity financing. Overall, while leverage is high, the company demonstrates strong equity returns.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -226.33% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.41, indicating that cash generation from operations is not fully covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.62, suggesting some cash flow constraints. Overall, cash flow management appears to be under pressure, with significant declines in free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.61B	8.81B	9.43B	9.44B	7.16B	6.56B
Gross Profit	1.77B	2.00B	2.19B	1.82B	1.08B	1.13B
EBITDA	1.41B	1.67B	1.79B	1.47B	895.00M	842.10M
Net Income	511.00M	658.00M	723.00M	522.00M	204.00M	167.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.88B	11.14B	11.18B	10.33B	10.46B	7.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	120.00M	157.00M	162.00M	150.00M	172.00M	179.00M
Total Debt	5.96B	5.46B	5.62B	5.50B	6.06B	3.87B
Total Liabilities	8.59B	8.13B	8.39B	8.18B	8.56B	5.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.29B	3.01B	2.78B	2.15B	1.89B	1.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-309.00M	-363.00M	340.00M	541.00M	-193.00M	179.00M
Operating Cash Flow	809.00M	840.00M	1.14B	1.09B	609.00M	825.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-976.00M	-342.00M	-1.02B	-435.00M	-2.39B	-648.00M
Financing Cash Flow	157.00M	-489.00M	-106.00M	-666.00M	1.78B	-152.00M

Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.55, below the 50-day MA of 16.06, and below the 200-day MA of 20.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPK.

Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$18.61B	20.91	19.68%	2.42%	7.30%	15.31%
SEE	71 Outperform	$6.07B	15.34	40.42%	1.94%	-1.22%	-0.76%
SLGN	68 Neutral	$4.30B	13.82	14.58%	1.97%	11.10%	6.54%
GPK	64 Neutral	$4.46B	8.90	16.24%	2.91%	-3.93%	-27.37%
SON	63 Neutral	$4.25B	4,443.30	6.39%	4.90%	8.31%	-99.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
OI	54 Neutral	$2.29B	-15.68	-10.92%	―	-2.82%	65.31%

Graphic Packaging Corporate Events

Graphic Packaging Appoints New CEO to Drive Turnaround

The independent directors of Graphic Packaging announced a leadership transition, appointing Robbert Rietbroek as president and chief executive officer after a period in which the company’s performance and share price, down nearly 50% over the past year, fell short of expectations. The board said the change followed a confidential search and reflects a need for fresh leadership to better capitalize on recent capital investments, respond to macroeconomic and industry headwinds, and restore long-term shareholder value. Rietbroek, a veteran of major consumer products companies including PepsiCo, Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, Primo Water and Primo Brands, is tasked with aligning the company’s capabilities with shifting consumer trends, accelerating innovation, optimizing costs and improving cash flow within the framework of its Vision 2030 plan. To support these efforts, Graphic Packaging has engaged advisory firm AlixPartners to identify further performance-improvement opportunities, with the board expressing confidence that the new CEO can return EBITDA margins to recently demonstrated levels and position the company for renewed growth and value creation.

Graphic Packaging Announces CEO Transition Effective January 2026

On December 8, 2025, Graphic Packaging announced that Michael P. Doss will step down as President and CEO on December 31, 2025, with Robbert E. Rietbroek succeeding him effective January 1, 2026. Rietbroek, with over 25 years of experience at Fortune 500 companies, is expected to drive organic growth and world-class execution, aligning with the company’s Vision 2030 goals. This leadership transition is seen as a strategic move to build on the strong foundation laid by Doss, who has significantly contributed to the company’s growth and transformation over his decade-long tenure as CEO.

Graphic Packaging Secures $400M Incremental Term Facility

On October 31, 2025, Graphic Packaging International, LLC entered into an Incremental Facility Amendment with Bank of America and Coöperatieve Rabobank, enabling a Delayed Draw Incremental Term Facility of up to $400 million. This facility, maturing on June 30, 2027, will be used to repay GPIL’s Senior Secured Notes due in 2026, impacting the company’s financial strategy by securing a first-priority lien on its assets.

Graphic Packaging Announces CFO Resignation and Interim Appointment

On October 6, 2025, Graphic Packaging Holding Company announced the resignation of Mr. Stephen R. Scherger as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective November 7, 2025. Mr. Charles D. Lischer will assume the role of Senior Vice President and Interim Chief Financial Officer on the same date, bringing extensive experience from his previous roles at Teradata Corporation and The Coca-Cola Company.