Graphic Packaging (GPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.19B
• Dividend Yield: 2.01%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: -5.05%
• EPS Growth: -24.52%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 296,248,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,490,506
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,853,113
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.24
• 1Y Price Target: $24.58
• Price Target Upside: 14.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.50 ▲(13.79% Upside)

Graphic Packaging's overall stock score is driven by stable financial performance and strategic investments highlighted in the earnings call. While valuation is reasonable, technical indicators suggest a lack of strong momentum. The company's challenges in revenue growth and free cash flow, along with high leverage, are key risks to monitor.

Positive Factors

Competitive Advantage

GPK's strategy to galvanize its low-cost supply position is well-founded and should serve as a differentiator over time.

Free Cash Flow

Capex will come down considerably in 2026, serving to boost free cash flow and enabling a more shareholder-friendly capital redeployment strategy.

Shareholder Value

Capital allocation could favor share repurchase in the nearer term as the company feels very confident in its medium- and long-term strategy.

Negative Factors

Demand Challenges

Underlying demand challenges persist with Food continuing to lag while beverages are doing slightly better.

Pricing Pressure

Current guidance for the new Waco, TX facility indicates that added capacity could be offset by paper pricing pressure, leading to less favorable outcomes.

Volume Declines

GPK is being impacted by volume declines at their Consumer Packaged Goods and Quick Service Restaurant customers.

Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. The company offers coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers; and paperboard packaging products, such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers primarily to consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies; and barrier packaging products that protect against moisture, hot and cold temperature, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, insects, and other potential product-damaging factors. It also offers various laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures that are produced from its CUK, CRB, and SBS, as well as other grades of paperboards that are purchased from third-party suppliers; designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines that package bottles and cans, and non-beverage consumer products; and installs its packaging machines at customer plants and provides support, service, and performance monitoring of the machines. The company markets its products primarily through sales offices and broker arrangements with third parties in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Graphic Packaging generates revenue through the sale of its diverse packaging products to a wide array of industries, particularly in food service, beverage, and consumer goods. The company's revenue model is primarily based on direct sales to large manufacturers and retailers who require custom packaging solutions. Key revenue streams include contracts for large volume orders, which provide steady cash flow, and specialized packaging services that cater to specific customer needs. Additionally, Graphic Packaging benefits from strategic partnerships with major companies in the food and beverage industry, which often involve long-term contracts that secure consistent business. The company's focus on innovation in sustainable packaging also positions it favorably in a market increasingly driven by environmental considerations, potentially enhancing its competitiveness and earnings.

Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Graphic Packaging shows stable profitability with consistent net profit margins and improved gross profit margins. However, stagnant revenue growth and challenges in free cash flow generation, coupled with high leverage, present risks. The company's solid equity base and operational efficiency provide some stability.

Income Statement

The company's revenue has shown slight fluctuations, with a decrease from $9.44B in 2022 to $9.43B in 2023, but an increase in TTM to $8.64B. Gross profit margins have generally improved, indicating cost efficiency. Net profit margin is consistent, reflecting stable profitability. However, revenue growth is stagnant, which could be concerning long-term.

Balance Sheet

Graphic Packaging demonstrates a solid equity base with increasing stockholders' equity, but the debt-to-equity ratio remains high due to significant total debt. The equity ratio is modest, suggesting a balanced asset funding approach. Return on equity is fairly strong, indicating effective use of equity capital.

Cash Flow

The company faces challenges in free cash flow, with negative figures in recent periods, indicating potential strain in cash generation relative to capital expenditures. However, operating cash flow remains positive and strong, suggesting operational efficiency despite investment pressures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.63B	8.81B	9.43B	9.44B	7.16B	6.56B
Gross Profit	1.82B	1.96B	2.19B	1.83B	1.07B	1.10B
EBITDA	1.47B	1.67B	1.79B	1.60B	1.04B	909.90M
Net Income	534.00M	658.00M	723.00M	522.00M	204.00M	167.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.79B	11.14B	11.18B	10.33B	10.46B	7.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	120.00M	157.00M	162.00M	150.00M	172.00M	179.00M
Total Debt	5.83B	5.46B	5.62B	5.25B	5.79B	3.64B
Total Liabilities	8.58B	8.13B	8.39B	8.18B	8.56B	5.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.22B	3.01B	2.78B	2.15B	1.89B	1.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-167.00M	-363.00M	340.00M	541.00M	-193.00M	199.30M
Operating Cash Flow	769.00M	840.00M	1.14B	1.09B	609.00M	845.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.02B	-342.00M	-1.02B	-435.00M	-2.39B	-668.70M
Financing Cash Flow	241.00M	-489.00M	-106.00M	-666.00M	1.78B	-152.00M

Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.35, below the 50-day MA of 22.31, and below the 200-day MA of 24.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPK.

Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	77 Outperform	$19.50B	21.25	20.51%	2.27%	8.98%	25.81%
GPK	67 Neutral	$6.19B	11.84	17.71%	2.01%	-5.05%	-24.52%
SEE	65 Neutral	$4.75B	15.84	37.35%	2.44%	-2.00%	-18.50%
SON	63 Neutral	$4.49B	30.97	3.98%	4.54%	0.90%	-118.86%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.97B	12.87	-5.29%	2.97%	1.26%	-14.45%
SLGN	61 Neutral	$4.80B	15.92	14.54%	1.75%	5.49%	-1.01%
OI	53 Neutral	$1.95B	―	-18.69%	―	-3.36%	11.88%

Graphic Packaging Corporate Events

Graphic Packaging Board Member Resigns in August 2025

On August 6, 2025, Mr. Dean A. Scarborough resigned from his position as a member of the Board of Directors at Graphic Packaging Holding Company. His resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company or its management.