Graphic Packaging (GPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.86B
• Dividend Yield: 2.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: -3.93%
• EPS Growth: -27.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 295,123,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,813,225
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,594,819
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.34
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.52
• P/FCF Ratio: -55.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.51
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.62
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 23.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(15.70% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

The score is held back primarily by weaker financial quality (recent negative free cash flow and elevated leverage) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partly offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and earnings-call guidance pointing to a 2026 free-cash-flow improvement driven by lower capex and inventory reduction, albeit with notable near-term demand and pricing headwinds.

Positive Factors

World-class manufacturing assets

High-efficiency recycled paperboard plants (Waco, Kalamazoo) create durable cost and quality advantages in a market shifting toward recycled content. Superior assets support lower unit costs, improved sustainability credentials, and sticky customer relationships that should sustain margins and share over multiple years.

CapEx discipline & FCF focus

A structurally lower capex program and stricter project approval create a lasting improvement in cash generation potential. Reducing capital intensity toward ~5% of sales should materially improve free cash flow, enable sustained debt paydown, and increase strategic optionality over the medium term.

Management & transformation program

A refreshed executive team plus a formal transformation office and external advisor (AlixPartners) signals credible governance and execution capability. Focused cost, footprint and innovation initiatives are structural levers to restore margins, drive sustainable volume recovery, and strengthen the balance sheet over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent negative free cash flow

Repeated negative and volatile free cash flow reduces financial flexibility and constrains the company's ability to delever or invest organically. Until FCF conversion stabilizes, balance-sheet repair and shareholder returns depend heavily on execution of capex cuts and inventory normalization.

Bleached paperboard overcapacity

Structural overcapacity in bleached paperboard creates persistent pricing pressure and cross-grade margin erosion. This industry-level imbalance can suppress realized prices and limit margin recovery even if the company improves operations, making margin restoration more challenging and prolonged.

Elevated inventory & production curtailments

High inventories indicate working-capital inefficiency and create cash drag; planned curtailments to reduce stock will temporarily depress output and EBITDA. The inventory overhang also raises execution risk for the near-term deleveraging plan and may prolong leverage levels if demand recovery lags.

Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. The company offers coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers; and paperboard packaging products, such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers primarily to consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies; and barrier packaging products that protect against moisture, hot and cold temperature, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, insects, and other potential product-damaging factors. It also offers various laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures that are produced from its CUK, CRB, and SBS, as well as other grades of paperboards that are purchased from third-party suppliers; designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines that package bottles and cans, and non-beverage consumer products; and installs its packaging machines at customer plants and provides support, service, and performance monitoring of the machines. The company markets its products primarily through sales offices and broker arrangements with third parties in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Graphic Packaging generates revenue primarily through the sale of its packaging products, which include folding cartons, paperboard, and other related packaging materials. The company serves a diverse range of customers in the food and beverage sector, as well as in household and personal care markets. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major clients, which provide a stable income base, and spot sales to various customers for immediate needs. Additionally, Graphic Packaging benefits from economies of scale in production and sourcing of raw materials, which helps to lower costs and increase profitability. Strategic partnerships with major brands and retailers also enhance its market position and contribute to revenue growth, as these collaborations often lead to customized packaging solutions that drive demand.

Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability remains solid with 2025 EBIT/EBITDA margins around 9.3%/15.6% and revenue re-accelerating, but margin compression versus 2023–2024, elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.67; net leverage 3.8x cited), and especially inconsistent/negative free cash flow in 2024–2025 materially weaken the near-term financial profile.

Income Statement

Revenue has been resilient but choppy (down in 2023–2024, then re-accelerating to +9.3% in 2025). Profitability remains solid for the group, with 2025 EBIT and EBITDA margins around 9.3% and 15.6%, respectively, though both stepped down meaningfully versus 2023–2024 levels. Net margin also eased to ~5.2% in 2025 from ~7–8% in 2023–2024, indicating some pressure from costs, pricing/mix, or overhead despite the return to top-line growth.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the main constraint: debt-to-equity improved versus earlier years but remains elevated at ~1.67 in 2025 (still meaningfully levered for a packaging business). Equity has grown over time, and returns on equity are healthy (13.3% in 2025, with stronger levels in 2022–2024), but the combination of sizable debt and reduced profitability in 2025 limits balance-sheet flexibility if operating conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been positive and relatively steady (about $0.85B in 2025), but free cash flow has been inconsistent and negative in two of the last three years (including -$81M in 2025 and -$363M in 2024). The sharp decline in 2025 free cash flow growth and the weak/negative free-cash conversion versus earnings in 2024–2025 point to elevated capital spending, working-capital drag, or other cash uses that reduce financial flexibility despite ongoing profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.62B	8.81B	9.43B	9.44B	7.16B
Gross Profit	1.61B	2.00B	2.19B	1.82B	1.08B
EBITDA	1.34B	1.67B	1.79B	1.47B	895.00M
Net Income	444.00M	658.00M	723.00M	522.00M	204.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.78B	11.14B	11.18B	10.33B	10.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	261.00M	157.00M	162.00M	150.00M	172.00M
Total Debt	5.57B	5.46B	5.62B	5.50B	6.06B
Total Liabilities	8.44B	8.13B	8.39B	8.18B	8.56B
Stockholders Equity	3.34B	3.01B	2.78B	2.15B	1.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-81.00M	-363.00M	340.00M	541.00M	-193.00M
Operating Cash Flow	854.00M	840.00M	1.14B	1.09B	609.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-745.00M	-342.00M	-1.02B	-435.00M	-2.39B
Financing Cash Flow	-18.00M	-489.00M	-106.00M	-666.00M	1.78B

Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.42, below the 50-day MA of 14.57, and below the 200-day MA of 18.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPK.

Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$21.51B	27.85	―	2.42%	7.23%	-3.88%
SEE	71 Outperform	$6.17B	15.58	40.42%	1.94%	-1.22%	-0.76%
SON	71 Outperform	$5.68B	14.48	20.01%	4.33%	8.31%	-99.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SLGN	60 Neutral	$5.10B	17.86	13.53%	1.97%	11.10%	6.54%
GPK	58 Neutral	$3.86B	8.84	13.99%	2.91%	-3.93%	-27.37%
OI	56 Neutral	$2.28B	-17.93	-10.87%	―	-2.82%	65.31%

Graphic Packaging Corporate Events

Graphic Packaging Announces Transition of Key Legal Executive

On January 5, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company began a leadership transition involving Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary Lauren S. Tashma, who relinquished her corporate role effective January 6, 2026, while remaining an officer or director of certain subsidiaries and an employee through March 1, 2026. The company expects Tashma to receive separation benefits under its Executive Severance Plan, enter into a release agreement covering the terms of her departure and a general release of claims, and provide transition services under a separate agreement to support ongoing matters, signaling an orderly legal and governance transition for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging CEO Outlines New Vision 2030 Strategy

On January 5, 2026, newly appointed President and CEO Robbert Rietbroek issued a letter to employees outlining his strategic priorities for Graphic Packaging as it moves beyond its Vision 2025 program and targets its Vision 2030 goals. Rietbroek, a former senior executive at major consumer goods companies and a long-time customer of Graphic Packaging, acknowledged both the company’s strengths and its challenges, citing declining volumes, margin pressure, elevated debt and a falling share price as signals that performance must improve. He set out three main focus areas: accelerating innovation to capture growth and provide sustainable packaging alternatives beyond traditional markets, rigorously reviewing and optimizing the company’s operational footprint and cost structure with the help of AlixPartners, and sharpening emphasis on earnings and free cash flow by lowering capital spending, reducing inventories, cutting leverage and aiming for an investment-grade credit rating by 2030. The plan underscores a push to restore growth, enhance margins and strengthen balance-sheet resilience, with the explicit goal of creating value for employees, customers, vendors, shareholders and bondholders while reinforcing the company’s leadership in sustainable consumer packaging.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Approves Retention Package for Key Executive

On December 19, 2025, Graphic Packaging’s Compensation and Management Committee approved a retention package for Joseph P. Yost, Executive Vice President and President, Americas, of the company’s operating unit, Graphic Packaging International. The package includes a $2 million cash retention bonus, payable in early 2027 if Yost remains employed or in certain qualifying termination scenarios, and $2 million in service-based restricted stock units granted effective January 2, 2026, which will vest on January 2, 2027 contingent on his continued employment. The move reinforces the company’s efforts to retain key leadership in its Americas business, aligning Yost’s incentives with long-term performance and operational continuity for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Appoints New CEO to Drive Turnaround

The independent directors of Graphic Packaging announced a leadership transition, appointing Robbert Rietbroek as president and chief executive officer after a period in which the company’s performance and share price, down nearly 50% over the past year, fell short of expectations. The board said the change followed a confidential search and reflects a need for fresh leadership to better capitalize on recent capital investments, respond to macroeconomic and industry headwinds, and restore long-term shareholder value. Rietbroek, a veteran of major consumer products companies including PepsiCo, Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, Primo Water and Primo Brands, is tasked with aligning the company’s capabilities with shifting consumer trends, accelerating innovation, optimizing costs and improving cash flow within the framework of its Vision 2030 plan. To support these efforts, Graphic Packaging has engaged advisory firm AlixPartners to identify further performance-improvement opportunities, with the board expressing confidence that the new CEO can return EBITDA margins to recently demonstrated levels and position the company for renewed growth and value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Announces CEO Transition Effective January 2026

On December 8, 2025, Graphic Packaging announced that Michael P. Doss will step down as President and CEO on December 31, 2025, with Robbert E. Rietbroek succeeding him effective January 1, 2026. Rietbroek, with over 25 years of experience at Fortune 500 companies, is expected to drive organic growth and world-class execution, aligning with the company’s Vision 2030 goals. This leadership transition is seen as a strategic move to build on the strong foundation laid by Doss, who has significantly contributed to the company’s growth and transformation over his decade-long tenure as CEO.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.