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O-I Glass (OI)
NYSE:OI
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O-I Glass
(NYSE:OI)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▲(14.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability, sharp recent revenue decline, and high leverage despite improved free cash flow. Technical indicators also point to a soft near-term trend. These negatives are partially offset by a more positive earnings outlook driven by Fit to Win cost savings and management’s reaffirmed medium-term targets, though near-term Europe-related headwinds remain.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow recovery
A strong rebound to positive free cash flow in TTM 2025 provides durable internal funding to support debt paydown, targeted capex and restructuring costs. Sustainable FCF reduces reliance on external financing and underpins the company’s multi-year deleveraging plan and strategic reinvestment.
Fit to Win cost program
Demonstrated delivery and an increased Fit to Win target signal durable structural cost and productivity gains. Recurring savings improve underlying margins, fund strategic initiatives and provide a credible path to improved EBITDA and economic spreads, strengthening long-term competitiveness.
Global manufacturing footprint
A broad, global manufacturing footprint and B2B contracts support scale, redundancy and localized service for beverage and food customers. Geographic diversification and long-term commercial relationships enable steadier volumes across cycles and allow mix shifts toward higher‑value segments.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High leverage constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity. Even with targets to reduce leverage by 2027, current debt levels limit capacity for opportunistic investments and increase the importance of consistent cash generation to avoid distress in adverse cycles.
Weak profitability and revenue decline
Sustained net losses and large top‑line declines signal structural demand and pricing pressure that undermine return metrics. Persistent negative ROE and compressed margins limit retained earnings accumulation, making long‑term recovery more dependent on successful cost programs and market stabilization.
Demand and regional headwinds
Ongoing destocking, weaker beer/spirits consumption and an energy cost reset in Europe create a multi‑quarter drag on volumes and margins. Combined with regional competition and capacity rationalization, these structural headwinds raise execution risk as network optimization completes into mid‑2026.
O-I Glass (OI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.26B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth-2.82%
EPS Growth65.31%
CountryUS
Employees21,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding152,361,600
10 Day Avg. Volume1,560,996
30 Day Avg. Volume1,431,884
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.81
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio13.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.94
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.33Price Target Upside39.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.43B
O-I Glass Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionO-I Glass, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells glass containers to food and beverage manufacturers primarily in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company produces glass containers for alcoholic beverages, including beer, flavored malt beverages, spirits, and wine. It is also involved in the production of glass packaging for various food items, soft drinks, tea, juices, and pharmaceuticals. In addition, the company offers glass containers in a range of sizes, shapes, and colors. It sells its products directly to customers under annual or multi-year supply agreements, as well as through distributors. The company was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Perrysburg, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyO-I Glass generates revenue primarily through the sale of glass containers to various sectors, particularly the food and beverage industries, which constitute a significant portion of its customer base. The company operates on a business-to-business (B2B) model, securing long-term contracts with major beverage companies, craft breweries, and food manufacturers. Additional revenue is derived from offering customized packaging solutions and value-added services, such as design and logistics support. O-I Glass also benefits from economies of scale due to its extensive manufacturing footprint and operational efficiencies. Strategic partnerships with key players in the beverage and food sectors further enhance its market position and contribute to steady income streams.
O-I Glass Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue split across regions reveals where O‑I earns most of its sales and where it's vulnerable to local demand swings, currency moves, and regional beverage or food market trends. Heavy concentration in a single geography increases sensitivity to that area's economic cycles, energy prices, and regulatory changes.
Revenue split across regions reveals where O‑I earns most of its sales and where it's vulnerable to local demand swings, currency moves, and regional beverage or food market trends. Heavy concentration in a single geography increases sensitivity to that area's economic cycles, energy prices, and regulatory changes.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyO-I Glass Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and financial narrative: management delivered strong cost-out performance (Fit to Win) that drove double-digit EBITDA and EPS improvement, margin expansion, materially improved free cash flow and reduced leverage. However, the company continues to face notable demand softness and inventory destocking (notably in beer and spirits), a near-term ~$150M energy cost reset in Europe, restructuring cash costs, and tough early-2026 comps that will pressure volumes in Q1. Management expects these headwinds to be largely transitory and has increased cost-savings targets and reaffirmed 2027 goals, signaling confidence that execution will offset near-term demand challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS and Earnings Recovery
Full-year 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.60 per share (nearly doubled vs 2024). Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings rebounded to $0.20 per share from a prior-year net loss, driven by Fit to Win benefits, higher production and a lower effective tax rate.
Fit to Win Outperformance and Increased Target
Fit to Win delivered $300,000,000 of savings in 2025 (exceeding the $250,000,000 target) including ~$80,000,000 in Q4. Company raised its three-year cumulative Fit to Win target to at least $750,000,000 (up from $650,000,000) and expects at least $275,000,000 incremental savings in 2026.
Adjusted EBITDA, Margin Expansion and Segment Profit
Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% in 2025 with margins expanding ~220 basis points. Q4 segment operating profit rose 30% to $177,000,000 with margins expanding ~280 basis points; Americas segment operating profit up ~40%.
Free Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Improvement
Free cash flow rebounded to $168,000,000 (improvement of approximately $300,000,000 year-over-year). Leverage improved by nearly half a turn to 3.5x with a plan to reach ~2.5x by year-end 2027.
Capital Allocation and CapEx Discipline
Capital expenditures were reduced ~30% in 2025, supporting improved free cash flow and disciplined capital allocation while enabling strategic reinvestment opportunities.
Top-line Stability and Mix Improvement
Net sales were roughly $1.5 billion in Q4 with average selling prices essentially flat; favorable FX largely offset volume declines. Management shifted mix ~1% toward higher-value categories (premium spirits, food, NEBs, RTDs) and unit shipments declined only ~1.5% due to lighter-weight/smaller formats with stronger margins.
2026 Outlook and 2027 Targets Reaffirmed
Company reaffirmed 2027 Investor Day targets and provided 2026 guidance: adjusted EBITDA $1.25–$1.30 billion (up to 7% vs 2025; up to 22% ex the $150M energy step-up), adjusted EPS $1.65–$1.90, and free cash flow ~ $200,000,000.
Negative Updates
Volume and Consumption Weakness
Shipments and tons were down ~2.5% for the year amid a ~3% decline in consumer consumption. Americas volumes declined ~10% in Q4 (concentrated in beer and spirits); management expects Q1 2026 volumes to be down mid-to-high single digits due to tough comparisons and inventory adjustments.
Energy Cost Headwind in 2026
A one-time estimated energy cost step-up of ~$150,000,000 in 2026 (expiration of favorable European energy contracts) is expected to materially impact reported 2026 EBITDA; management notes this is largely a one-off reset.
Net Price Pressure and Regional Headwinds
Net price was a modest headwind in parts of the business (notably Europe). Some markets (UK, Italy) and categories (mainstream beer and certain wines) remained weak, contributing to volume and price pressure.
Restructuring and Cash Costs
Restructuring cash payments of $128,000,000 were recorded in 2025 and management expects approximately $150,000,000 of restructuring cash costs in 2026, though these are expected to taper after 2026.
Inventory and Channel Destocking
elevated inventories in spirits (inventory-to-sales ratios ~1.7–1.8 vs long-run ~1.3) led to destocking across the value chain, contributing to lower shipments and pressure on near-term volumes, particularly in North America.
Excess Capacity and Network Optimization Still Underway
Underutilized capacity was ~13% in 2024, reduced to ~6% in 2025; remaining capacity reductions (primarily in Europe) are expected to be completed by mid-2026 but indicate earlier overcapacity and near-term curtailments while actions complete.
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance calls for adjusted EBITDA of $1.25–$1.30 billion (up to 7% vs. 2025; would be up to +22% excl. a ~$150M one‑time European energy cost step‑up), adjusted EPS of $1.65–$1.90 (up to +19%, assuming a 30–33% tax rate), free cash flow of roughly $200M, capex of about $450M, and approximately $150M of restructuring cash costs (expected to decline after 2026); they expect a stable or modestly higher top line with volumes flat to slightly down (Q1 volumes likely down mid‑to‑high single digits on tough comps), and they reiterated at least $275M of incremental Fit to Win savings in 2026 (raising the three‑year cumulative Fit to Win target to at least $750M from $650M) after delivering $300M of Fit to Win benefits in 2025 (≈$80M in Q4); management reaffirmed the 2027 Investor Day targets (including adjusted EBITDA of at least $1.45B), noting FY25 results of adjusted EPS $1.60, free cash flow $168M, adjusted EBITDA +11% with margins +220 bps, economic spread +200 bps, and leverage improving to 3.5 (target ~2.5 by year‑end 2027).O-I Glass Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are mixed: cash generation improved materially (positive operating cash flow and a strong rebound to positive free cash flow in TTM 2025), but profitability remains weak with sustained net losses and sharply lower revenue in 2024 and TTM 2025. Elevated leverage (high debt-to-equity and negative ROE) remains a key constraint despite some improvement in leverage metrics.Income Statement
Profitability is the key drag: O-I Glass posted net losses in 2023, 2024, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025 (net margin roughly -1% to -2%). Operating performance is still positive (EBIT margin ~4.7% in TTM), but margins have compressed sharply versus 2022 (when net margin was ~8.5%). Growth is also a concern: revenue declined in 2024 (~-8%) and fell further in TTM 2025 (~-45%), indicating meaningful top-line pressure despite some resilience at the operating line.42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage is elevated and remains a central risk. Debt-to-equity is high across the period (about ~3.1x to ~4.8x in 2023–TTM 2025, and even higher in earlier years), limiting financial flexibility. Equity improved versus 2024, but returns on equity are negative in 2023–TTM 2025 due to net losses, which weakens the balance-sheet quality despite a sizable asset base.35
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot. Operating cash flow is positive in every period shown, including TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025 (~$600M). Free cash flow rebounded strongly to positive in TTM 2025 (~$361M) after being negative in 2024, signaling improved cash discipline and/or lower investment needs. The main weakness is that cash flow still does not fully offset the earnings pressure, and operating cash flow remains modest relative to the company’s debt load (coverage is roughly ~0.26 in TTM).62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.43B | 6.53B | 7.11B | 6.86B | 6.36B |
| Gross Profit | 1.11B | 1.04B | 1.50B | 1.21B | 1.09B |
| EBITDA | 781.00M | 859.00M | 892.00M | 1.50B | 997.00M |
| Net Income | -129.00M | -106.00M | -103.00M | 584.00M | 149.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.24B | 8.65B | 9.67B | 9.06B | 8.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 759.00M | 734.00M | 913.00M | 773.00M | 725.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.00B | 5.18B | 4.95B | 4.72B | 4.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.80B | 7.45B | 7.92B | 7.53B | 8.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.29B | 1.08B | 1.61B | 1.42B | 720.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 168.00M | -128.00M | 130.00M | -385.00M | 289.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 600.00M | 489.00M | 818.00M | 154.00M | 687.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -368.00M | -620.00M | -683.00M | -97.00M | -220.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -250.00M | -8.00M | -27.00M | 6.00M | -273.00M |
O-I Glass Technical Analysis
Negative
13.12
Price Trends
15.26
Negative
14.04
Negative
13.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.40
Positive
31.61
Neutral
14.09
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.28, below the 50-day MA of 15.26, and below the 200-day MA of 13.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.09 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OI.
O-I Glass Risk Analysis
O-I Glass disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. O-I Glass reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
O-I Glass Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.63B | 14.34 | 20.01% | 4.33% | 8.31% | -99.39% | |
69 Neutral | $848.04M | 30.45 | 9.92% | 2.80% | 0.26% | 78.05% | |
63 Neutral | $3.73B | 19.58 | 2.08% | 3.19% | -17.63% | -80.32% | |
63 Neutral | $5.12B | 17.94 | 13.53% | 1.97% | 11.10% | 6.54% | |
62 Neutral | $1.48B | 33.84 | 6.26% | 0.45% | 11.83% | 67.28% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
49 Neutral | $2.26B | -15.23 | -10.87% | ― | -2.82% | 65.31% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
OI
O-I Glass
13.12
1.65
14.39%
GEF
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72.76
17.49
31.64%
MYE
Myers Industries
22.65
12.08
114.20%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
47.48
-5.91
-11.08%
SON
Sonoco Products
55.88
10.21
22.34%
TRS
Trimas
38.00
17.59
86.20%
O-I Glass Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
O-I Glass Reaffirms 2026 Outlook Amid Earnings Headwinds
Negative
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, O-I Glass said Chief Financial Officer John Haudrich would present that day at the BofA Securities 2026 Global Agriculture and Materials Conference to detail its strategy to boost shareholder value through competitiveness, cost transformation and profitable growth. The company plans to showcase progress from its Fit to Win program, optimization of its global footprint and portfolio mix, and reaffirmation of 2027 targets, while addressing current market conditions and earnings dynamics.
O-I is maintaining its full-year 2026 guidance but warned that first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share will face additional pressure and fall below its prior expectation that the quarter would contribute 12–16% of full-year adjusted EPS. Management cited incremental commercial headwinds in Europe from soft demand, intense competition and higher short-term supply chain costs tied to the permanent closure of excess capacity by mid-2026, even as it remains focused on improving earnings, economic profit, free cash flow and long-term shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (OI) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on O-I Glass stock, see the OI Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and Strategy
O-I Glass Executives to Present at Citi Conference
Neutral
Dec 2, 2025
O-I Glass, Inc. announced that its CEO Gordon Hardie and CFO John Haudrich will present at the Citi 2025 Basic Materials Conference on December 3, 2025. The presentation will focus on the company’s strategic initiatives, including cost management and efficiency improvements under the ‘Fit to Win’ program, which aims to enhance competitiveness and drive economic profit. The company is also focusing on transforming its cost base and expanding its premium business portfolio to increase shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (OI) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on O-I Glass stock, see the OI Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.