Greif Class A (GEF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.68B
• Dividend Yield: 3.19%
• Average Volume (3M): 259.51K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: -17.63%
• EPS Growth: -80.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 24,751,957
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 331,509
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 259,509
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: -33.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.14
• 1Y Price Target: $75.67
• Price Target Upside: 4.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.31B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $79.00 ▲(8.71% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is held back primarily by weak TTM cash generation and negative free cash flow versus reported earnings, despite improved leverage and solid reported profitability. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call supported confidence via reaffirmed FY2026 EBITDA/FCF guidance, cost optimization progress, and strong capital returns, while technicals and valuation appear moderately supportive but not decisive.

Positive Factors

Improved Leverage / Balance Sheet

Material deleveraging and a lower net leverage (~1.2x) materially reduce refinancing and liquidity risk, giving management durable financial flexibility. This stronger capital structure supports sustained buybacks, dividends, and targeted growth investments even in a muted end market environment.

Margin Expansion via Cost Optimization

Sizable, recurring cost takeouts and structural efficiency gains have driven meaningful EBITDA and margin improvement. Run-rate savings (targeted $80–$90M) create a sustainable profit buffer that can offset cyclical volume weakness and improve long-term operating leverage.

Disciplined Capital Returns

Active share repurchases tied to a stronger balance sheet signal disciplined capital allocation and shareholder alignment. With lower leverage, buybacks and steady dividends become a durable mechanism to enhance per‑share economics and return excess cash when core reinvestment needs are limited.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

Persistent weak operating cash flow and negative free cash flow undermine earnings quality and constrain durable capital flexibility. If cash conversion doesn't normalize, the company may struggle to fund capex, sustain buybacks, or withstand another demand slowdown without relying on one‑time proceeds.

Ongoing Volume Weakness

Sustained mid-single-digit volume declines across segments indicate structural end‑market softening. Volume weakness limits revenue upside, pressures product mix, and forces reliance on pricing and cost cuts for growth, which may not fully replace lost organic demand over the medium term.

Earnings Quality / One‑off Effects

A sharp step‑up in trailing net margin and recent divestitures suggest profit levels include nonrecurring items and reclassification effects. This raises risk that reported profitability and EPS are not fully sustainable, complicating forecasting and obscuring core operating performance durability.

Greif Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greif, Inc. engages in the production and sale of industrial packaging products and services worldwide. It operates in three segments: Global Industrial Packaging; Paper Packaging & Services; and Land Management. The Global Industrial Packaging segment produces and sells industrial packaging products, including steel, fiber, and plastic drums; rigid and flexible intermediate bulk containers; closure systems for industrial packaging products; transit protection products; water bottles, and remanufactured and reconditioned industrial containers; and various services, such as container life cycle management, filling, logistics, warehousing, and other packaging services to chemicals, paints and pigments, food and beverage, petroleum, industrial coatings, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, mineral product, and other industries. This segment also offers flexible intermediate bulk containers and related services to the agriculture, construction, and food industries. The Paper Packaging & Services segment produces and sells containerboards, corrugated sheets and containers, and other corrugated and specialty products to customers in the packaging, automotive, food, and building products markets; and produces and sells coated and uncoated recycled paperboard, and recycled fiber. This segment's corrugated container products are used to ship various products, such as home appliances, small machinery, grocery products, automotive components, books, and furniture, as well as various other applications. The Land Management segment engages in harvesting and regeneration of timber properties; and sale of timberland and special use properties. As of October 31, 2021, this segment owned approximately 175,000 acres of timber properties in the southeastern United States. The company was formerly known as Greif Bros. Corporation and changed its name to Greif, Inc. in 2001. Greif, Inc. was founded in 1877 and is headquartered in Delaware, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Greif generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily by selling its packaging products to a wide range of industries. The company's core revenue comes from the manufacturing and distribution of industrial containers, including steel and plastic drums, which are essential for the safe transportation and storage of hazardous and non-hazardous materials. Additionally, Greif earns revenue from its IBC solutions and related packaging services. Significant partnerships with major companies in the chemicals, food, and pharmaceutical sectors bolster its sales, while Greif's focus on sustainability and innovation helps attract new business. The company's ability to provide comprehensive packaging solutions, coupled with its global manufacturing footprint, allows it to capitalize on various market opportunities and maintain a steady revenue stream.

Greif Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement and balance sheet trends are constructive (TTM revenue up ~5.8%, solid margins, and materially improved leverage with ~0.43 debt-to-equity). However, cash flow is the key weakness: TTM operating cash flow is low (~$34M) and free cash flow is negative (~-$143M), and cash generation is not keeping pace with reported earnings, raising earnings-quality and sustainability concerns.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rose ~5.8% with solid gross margin (~22.6%) and EBITDA margin (~15.9%). However, performance has been uneven over the last several years with revenue declines in 2023–2024 and a sharp step-up in TTM net profit margin (~27.5%) versus prior annual levels, suggesting earnings may be benefiting from non-recurring or unusually favorable items. Overall profitability looks healthy on the surface, but consistency/quality of earnings is the key concern.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially: debt-to-equity is ~0.43 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus much higher levels in 2021–2024, indicating a stronger capital structure and reduced balance-sheet risk. Equity is sizable relative to assets, and return on equity is very strong in TTM, though that strength likely ties to the unusually high TTM net income level. The main positive is the clear deleveraging trend; the main watch-out is how sustainable the recent profitability is.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened significantly in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow is low (~$34M) and free cash flow is negative (~-$143M), a sharp reversal from positive free cash flow in 2022–2024. Cash flow is also not keeping pace with reported earnings (operating cash flow is only ~6% of net income and free cash flow is negative relative to net income), raising questions around working capital swings, capital intensity, or timing effects. This is the clearest pressure point in the financials.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Oct 2024	Oct 2023	Oct 2022	Oct 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.93B	4.29B	4.33B	5.22B	6.35B	5.56B
Gross Profit	1.07B	950.73M	892.15M	1.15B	1.29B	1.09B
EBITDA	708.50M	440.29M	534.44M	834.10M	803.50M	805.70M
Net Income	1.01B	840.00M	265.96M	359.20M	376.70M	390.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.50B	5.77B	6.65B	5.96B	5.47B	5.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	243.50M	256.70M	197.70M	180.90M	147.10M	124.60M
Total Debt	1.15B	1.57B	3.07B	2.54B	2.18B	2.52B
Total Liabilities	2.43B	2.72B	4.40B	3.85B	3.66B	4.22B
Stockholders Equity	2.94B	2.91B	2.08B	1.95B	1.76B	1.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-142.60M	-85.20M	169.50M	435.90M	474.50M	248.70M
Operating Cash Flow	34.20M	58.60M	356.00M	649.50M	657.50M	396.00M
Investing Cash Flow	2.11B	1.64B	-658.30M	-670.20M	-28.20M	46.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.16B	-1.69B	324.30M	69.70M	-531.00M	-422.90M

Greif Class A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 72.67
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 72.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.18, above the 50-day MA of 71.96, and above the 200-day MA of 64.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GEF.

Greif Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SEE	71 Outperform	$6.17B	15.57	40.42%	1.94%	-1.22%	-0.76%
SON	71 Outperform	$5.57B	14.19	20.01%	4.33%	8.31%	-99.39%
GEF	63 Neutral	$3.68B	19.30	2.08%	3.19%	-17.63%	-80.32%
SLGN	63 Neutral	$5.07B	17.80	13.53%	1.97%	11.10%	6.54%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AMBP	57 Neutral	$2.90B	-263.59	―	9.90%	10.34%	87.86%
OI	49 Neutral	$2.04B	-15.85	-10.87%	―	-2.82%	65.31%

Greif Class A Corporate Events

Greif Shareholders Reelect Board, Approve 2026 Governance Matters

At Greif’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on February 23, 2026, holders of Class B Common Stock elected all ten nominees to the board of directors for one-year terms, including CEO Ole G. Rosgaard and other incumbent and independent directors, with vote tallies showing broad support across the slate. Shareholders also ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026 and approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers, signaling continued shareholder backing for Greif’s governance, financial oversight and executive pay practices.

These voting outcomes reinforce continuity in Greif’s leadership and audit arrangements, reducing near-term governance uncertainty for investors and other stakeholders. The strong support for both the director slate and executive compensation suggests that key shareholders remain generally aligned with management’s strategic direction and oversight framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Hold with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.

Greif Realigns Fiscal Calendar and Reporting Segments

Greif, Inc. has realigned its fiscal calendar effective October 1, 2025, shifting its year-end to September 30 and recasting fiscal 2025 quarterly results to match the new reporting schedule, while also renaming its Integrated Solutions segment to Innovative Closure Solutions and redistributing recycled fiber, adhesives and steel-related services into the Sustainable Fiber Solutions and Durable Metal Solutions segments. On June 30, 2025 Greif agreed to sell its containerboard business, closing on August 31, 2025, and the divestiture is now treated as discontinued operations, prompting a historical reclassification of that business’s results and assets across all recast 2025 quarters to better reflect the company’s strategic shift and current segment structure without restating previously filed financials.

The newly furnished historical financial tables present 2025 net sales, gross profit, operating profit and Adjusted EBITDA by the updated segments and recast quarters to align with the fiscal 2026 reporting framework, providing investors with comparable data under the new structure. By repositioning each business within an integrated value chain and highlighting a dedicated Innovative Closure Solutions segment, Greif aims to clarify its core packaging and closure focus for stakeholders evaluating performance and the impact of the containerboard exit.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Hold with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.

Greif Class A Posts Strong Q1 Profit Rebound, Buybacks

On January 27, 2026, Greif reported fiscal first-quarter 2026 results for the period ended December 31, 2025, showing a sharp rebound in profitability from continuing operations following the August 31, 2025 divestiture of its containerboard business. Net income surged to $176.6 million, or $3.00 per diluted Class A share, while net income excluding adjustments rose 146.3% to $26.6 million and Adjusted EBITDA grew 24.0% to $122.5 million, driven largely by substantial cost optimization in manufacturing and SG&A that reached a $65 million run rate toward a $120 million target. Although operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow turned negative partly because prior-year figures included the now-divested containerboard business, the company used proceeds from the containerboard and timberlands sales to cut total debt to $944.0 million, reduce net debt to $700.5 million, and lower its leverage ratio from 3.6x to 1.2x. Greif also executed approximately $130 million in share repurchases in the quarter and secured board authorization for an additional $300 million of future repurchases, underscoring a more shareholder-focused capital allocation strategy, and reaffirmed the low end of its full-year 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow, signaling management’s confidence in continued margin and earnings resilience despite muted demand and lower volumes across several segments.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Hold with a $79.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.