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Greif Class A
(NYSE:GEF)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$97.00
▲(23.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by a mixed financial profile where improved leverage is offset by weak cash conversion and negative recent free cash flow. Offsetting this, the stock shows strong price strength versus key moving averages, valuation is compelling with a very low P/E and a moderate dividend yield, and the latest earnings call was constructive with improved guidance and continued margin/cost-optimization progress despite near-term demand and working-capital headwinds.
Positive Factors
Deleveraging & stronger capital structure
Greif's materially lower leverage and larger equity base reduce refinancing and default risk, increasing financial flexibility for investments, buybacks, and targeted M&A. A stronger balance sheet supports capital allocation choices and resilience through industrial demand cycles over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation / negative FCF
Earnings are not translating into cash: persistent negative FCF and weak cash conversion indicate working‑capital and capex consumption. This constrains sustainable funding for buybacks, dividends, or large M&A absent continued portfolio sales or significant operational cash improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Deleveraging & stronger capital structure
Greif's materially lower leverage and larger equity base reduce refinancing and default risk, increasing financial flexibility for investments, buybacks, and targeted M&A. A stronger balance sheet supports capital allocation choices and resilience through industrial demand cycles over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Greif Class A (GEF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.50B
Dividend Yield2.66%
Average Volume (3M)259.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.9
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-24.38%
EPS Growth43.47%
CountryUS
Employees12,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)18.71
Shares Outstanding24,808,643
10 Day Avg. Volume331,509
30 Day Avg. Volume259,509
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.97
Price to Sales (P/S)0.66
P/FCF Ratio-33.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.00Price Target Upside-5.88% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.25B
Greif Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Greif, Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the production and distribution of industrial packaging products and associated services. Established in 1877 and headquartered in Delaware, Ohio, Greif, Inc. adopted its current name in 2001, hav...
How the Company Makes Money
Greif makes money mainly by selling industrial packaging products and paper-based packaging materials/services to business customers. Key revenue streams include: (1) Global Industrial Packaging: sales of rigid industrial packaging such as steel d...
Greif Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial progress narrative: meaningful adjusted EBITDA growth (~25%), strong margin expansion (260+ bps), nearly 90% adjusted EPS improvement, delivery of a $90M cost optimization milestone and continued focus on a $120M target, reduced leverage (~1.1x), healthy cash generation (Q3 FCF $58M; full‑year conversion ~50%), and amplified shareholder returns (dividend +10.7%, completed $150M buyback and additional $150M authorization). Offsetting these positives are ongoing Middle East‑related demand headwinds (~$20M), elevated inventory/working capital carrying costs into year‑end, segment pressure in fiber and certain industrial end markets, and some timing/recognition risk on recent price increases. Overall, the positive operational execution and financial improvements materially outweigh the near‑term headwinds.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA improved approximately 25% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA guidance updated to $615M–$635M (≈10%–13% YoY growth). Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by more than 260 basis points year-over-year and by 110 basis points sequentially.
Negative Updates
Ongoing Geopolitical Headwinds
Middle East conflict continued to negatively impact demand; management expects approximately $20 million of Middle East‑related impacts on results and described demand as uneven.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA improved approximately 25% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA guidance updated to $615M–$635M (≈10%–13% YoY growth). Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by more than 260 basis points year-over-year and by 110 basis points sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Greif updated its fiscal guidance by raising the low end of adjusted EBITDA to $615–$635 million (prior low‑end $610M), implying roughly 10%–13% YoY EBITDA growth while still assuming about $20 million of Middle East‑related impacts; full‑year adjusted free cash flow is guided to $305–$325 million with adjusted free cash flow conversion around 50% (Q3 adjusted FCF was $58M), and Q3 saw ~25% adjusted EBITDA growth with margins expanding >260 basis points YoY (+110 bps sequentially). Management flagged higher working capital and restructuring costs in the assumptions (partially offset by better cash taxes), expects inventory levels and dollar costs to normalize in Q4 though some Q3 index impact will persist through year‑end, and reiterated operational targets including a $90M cost‑optimization run rate achieved early and a commitment to $120M annualized run rate by the end of next fiscal year. On capital allocation, Greif expects leverage to remain below 2.0 (below 1.5x viewed as realistic near term; current leverage ~1.1x), completed a $150M repurchase earlier this year and authorized an additional $150M, raised the recurring dividend by 10.7%, and will pursue tuck‑in M&A meeting targets of >18% EBITDA margins and >50% FCF conversion.Greif Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.51B | 4.29B | 4.33B | 5.22B | 6.35B | 5.56B |
| Gross Profit | 1.03B | 950.73M | 892.15M | 1.15B | 1.29B | 1.09B |
| EBITDA | 667.10M | 440.29M | 534.44M | 834.10M | 803.50M | 805.70M |
| Net Income | 1.05B | 840.00M | 265.96M | 359.20M | 376.70M | 390.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.70B | 5.77B | 6.65B | 5.96B | 5.47B | 5.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 288.50M | 256.70M | 197.70M | 180.90M | 147.10M | 124.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.23B | 1.57B | 3.07B | 2.54B | 2.18B | 2.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.57B | 2.72B | 4.40B | 3.85B | 3.66B | 4.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.00B | 2.91B | 2.08B | 1.95B | 1.76B | 1.51B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -74.10M | -85.20M | 169.50M | 435.90M | 474.50M | 248.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 120.20M | 58.60M | 356.00M | 649.50M | 657.50M | 396.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.01B | 1.64B | -658.30M | -670.20M | -28.20M | 46.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.12B | -1.69B | 324.30M | 69.70M | -531.00M | -422.90M |
Greif Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
78.62
Price Trends
71.21
Positive
68.65
Positive
67.31
Positive
Market Momentum
2.10
Negative
70.28
Negative
95.14
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 78.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.06, above the 50-day MA of 71.21, and above the 200-day MA of 67.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.28 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEF.
Greif Class A Risk Analysis
Greif Class A disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greif Class A reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greif Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $4.50B | 4.91 | 33.43% | 2.93% | -24.38% | 43.47% | |
70 Outperform | $5.62B | 8.70 | 18.34% | 3.66% | 12.01% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $4.34B | 15.68 | 15.74% | 1.77% | 8.43% | -9.80% | |
62 Neutral | $2.90B | 91.31 | -6.61% | 8.37% | 14.53% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
44 Neutral | $1.13B | -0.95 | -87.88% | ― | -1.85% | -352.80% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GEF
Greif Class A
86.55
26.47
44.07%
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SLGN
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SON
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AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
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Greif Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Greif Class A Posts Strong Q3 Profit Rebound
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
On July 28, 2026, Greif reported fiscal third quarter 2026 results showing a sharp rebound in profitability from continuing operations, with net income rising 156.7% to $78.8 million and adjusted EBITDA up 24.7% to $183.4 million versus the prior-...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Greif Class A Highlights Strong Q2 Cash Flow, Deleveraging
Positive
May 1, 2026
Greif reported fiscal second quarter 2026 results on April 28, 2026, showing net income from continuing operations down 32.3% to $12.6 million, though net income excluding adjustments jumped 57.5% to $62.7 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 7.5% to ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.