Greif Class A (GEF)
NYSE:GEF
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Greif Class A
(NYSE:GEF)
Select Model
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$77.00
▲(9.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: balance sheet deleveraging and headline profitability are positive, but sharply weaker cash generation and negative free cash flow are the key risk. Attractive valuation (low P/E and solid yield) and a constructive earnings call with reaffirmed guidance support the score, while near-term technical momentum remains soft.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet deleveraging
Material deleveraging has meaningfully reduced financial risk and increases capital flexibility. A stronger capital structure lowers interest burden, supports sustained dividend and buyback programs, and provides optionality for targeted growth investments or refinancing needs over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation / negative FCF
Negative free cash flow and operating cash well below reported earnings indicate cash conversion problems. Persistent FCF deficits can constrain reinvestment, elevate liquidity risk, and force reliance on asset sales or slower buyback pacing unless working capital and capex dynamics normalize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet deleveraging
Material deleveraging has meaningfully reduced financial risk and increases capital flexibility. A stronger capital structure lowers interest burden, supports sustained dividend and buyback programs, and provides optionality for targeted growth investments or refinancing needs over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Greif Class A (GEF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.68B
Dividend Yield3.19%
Average Volume (3M)259.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.6
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth-17.63%
EPS Growth-80.32%
CountryUS
Employees14,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding24,751,957
10 Day Avg. Volume331,509
30 Day Avg. Volume259,509
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.97
Price to Sales (P/S)0.66
P/FCF Ratio-33.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.33Price Target Upside6.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.31B
Greif Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Greif, Inc. engages in the production and sale of industrial packaging products and services worldwide. It operates in three segments: Global Industrial Packaging; Paper Packaging & Services; and Land Management. The Global Industrial Packaging se...
How the Company Makes Money
Greif generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily by selling its packaging products to a wide range of industries. The company's core revenue comes from the manufacturing and distribution of industrial containers, including steel and...
Greif Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear operational and financial progress against persistent end-market softness. Highlights include a 24% increase in adjusted EBITDA, a 260-basis-point margin expansion to 12.3%, EPS up ~140%, meaningful cost takeouts ($65M run rate achieved; $80–$90M target), strong deleveraging to ~1.2x, near-completion of a $150M buyback and a new $300M authorization, and reaffirmed full-year guidance ($630M adjusted EBITDA; $315M adjusted free cash flow at ~50% conversion). Lowlights center on continued muted demand and mid-single-digit volume declines (roughly ~5% in Q1), segment-specific pressures (metals, fiber converting, closures), mix-driven polymer margin weakness, and timing headwinds from fiber price/cost annualization. Overall, the company appears to be offsetting weak volumes through cost discipline, margin improvement and capital returns, supporting confidence in guidance.Positive Updates
Strong EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA increased 24% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 260 basis points to 12.3% in Q1, driven by price/cost improvements and structural cost optimization.
Negative Updates
Muted Demand and Volume Weakness
Overall volumes were down mid-single digits in Q1 (roughly ~5% cited), reflecting continued softness in the industrial economy across multiple end markets.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA increased 24% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 260 basis points to 12.3% in Q1, driven by price/cost improvements and structural cost optimization.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance of $630 million in adjusted EBITDA and $315 million in adjusted free cash flow, with an expected adjusted FCF conversion of roughly 50%; Q1 showed adjusted EBITDA up 24% year‑over‑year with margins of 12.3% (a 260 basis‑point improvement) and EPS up 140% year‑over‑year. Management expects volumes to be roughly flat for the year (Q1 volumes down mid‑singles, total sales ~flat on strong price/mix), has achieved $65 million of run‑rate cost optimization to date (targeting $80–$90 million year‑end), and projects lower maintenance CapEx while funding targeted growth CapEx. Balance sheet metrics support capital returns: leverage is ~1.2x and management expects to remain well below 2x, having completed $130 million of a $150 million repurchase and announced a new $300 million authorization with a goal to repurchase up to ~2% of shares annually.Greif Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.93B | 4.29B | 4.33B | 5.22B | 6.35B | 5.56B |
| Gross Profit | 1.07B | 950.73M | 892.15M | 1.15B | 1.29B | 1.09B |
| EBITDA | 708.50M | 440.29M | 534.44M | 834.10M | 803.50M | 805.70M |
| Net Income | 1.01B | 840.00M | 265.96M | 359.20M | 376.70M | 390.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.50B | 5.77B | 6.65B | 5.96B | 5.47B | 5.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 243.50M | 256.70M | 197.70M | 180.90M | 147.10M | 124.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.15B | 1.57B | 3.07B | 2.54B | 2.18B | 2.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.43B | 2.72B | 4.40B | 3.85B | 3.66B | 4.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.94B | 2.91B | 2.08B | 1.95B | 1.76B | 1.51B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -142.60M | -85.20M | 169.50M | 435.90M | 474.50M | 248.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 34.20M | 58.60M | 356.00M | 649.50M | 657.50M | 396.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.11B | 1.64B | -658.30M | -670.20M | -28.20M | 46.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.16B | -1.69B | 324.30M | 69.70M | -531.00M | -422.90M |
Greif Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
70.07
Price Trends
69.93
Positive
68.58
Positive
65.02
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
60.92
Neutral
92.63
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.65, above the 50-day MA of 69.93, and above the 200-day MA of 65.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEF.
Greif Class A Risk Analysis
Greif Class A disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greif Class A reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greif Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $5.57B | 10.96 | 32.44% | 4.33% | 8.31% | -99.39% | |
65 Neutral | $3.68B | 5.59 | 2.08% | 3.19% | -17.63% | -80.32% | |
63 Neutral | $4.37B | 14.78 | 13.03% | 1.97% | 11.10% | 6.54% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $6.21B | 12.04 | 48.39% | 1.94% | -1.22% | -0.76% | |
57 Neutral | $2.46B | ― | -2.78% | 9.90% | 10.34% | 87.86% | |
49 Neutral | $1.64B | -17.57 | -10.38% | ― | -2.82% | 65.31% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GEF
Greif Class A
70.07
19.28
37.95%
OI
O-I Glass
10.76
-0.22
-2.00%
SEE
Sealed Air
42.15
16.16
62.17%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
41.48
-7.18
-14.75%
SON
Sonoco Products
56.37
14.22
33.74%
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
4.12
1.63
65.33%
Greif Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Greif Class A Refinances and Restructures Secured Credit Facilities
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Greif, Inc. and several affiliated borrowing entities entered into a third amended and restated senior secured credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent and a syndicate of financial institutions,...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Greif Shareholders Reelect Board, Approve 2026 Governance Matters
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
At Greif’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on February 23, 2026, holders of Class B Common Stock elected all ten nominees to the board of directors for one-year terms, including CEO Ole G. Rosgaard and other incumbent and independent dir...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Greif Realigns Fiscal Calendar and Reporting Segments
Neutral
Feb 25, 2026
Greif, Inc. has realigned its fiscal calendar effective October 1, 2025, shifting its year-end to September 30 and recasting fiscal 2025 quarterly results to match the new reporting schedule, while also renaming its Integrated Solutions segment to...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Greif Class A Posts Strong Q1 Profit Rebound, Buybacks
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Greif reported fiscal first-quarter 2026 results for the period ended December 31, 2025, showing a sharp rebound in profitability from continuing operations following the August 31, 2025 divestiture of its containerboard busin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.