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Greif Class A (GEF)
NYSE:GEF

Greif Class A (GEF) AI Stock Analysis

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GE

Greif Class A

(NYSE:GEF)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$78.00
▲(11.97%Upside)
Greif Class A's solid financial performance, strategic divestiture, and positive earnings call outlook contribute to a favorable stock score. Despite challenges in some segments, the company's strategic focus on high-margin growth areas and cost optimization efforts bolster its investment appeal.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
GEF showed another impressive performance with EBITDA up 26% on a flattish top line, expertly navigating through choppy end markets.
Strategic Initiatives
GEF is focused on shifting its portfolio to less cyclical verticals, which is seen as a strategic move for future stability.
Negative Factors
Market Conditions
Expect FQ2 results to reflect challenging macro conditions, particularly affecting GEF's industrial end markets.
Market Demand
Overall volumes are a bit soft because of continued housing- and auto-related demand weakness impacting domestic Metal.

Greif Class A (GEF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Greif Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreif, Inc. engages in the production and sale of industrial packaging products and services worldwide. It operates in three segments: Global Industrial Packaging; Paper Packaging & Services; and Land Management. The Global Industrial Packaging segment produces and sells industrial packaging products, including steel, fiber, and plastic drums; rigid and flexible intermediate bulk containers; closure systems for industrial packaging products; transit protection products; water bottles, and remanufactured and reconditioned industrial containers; and various services, such as container life cycle management, filling, logistics, warehousing, and other packaging services to chemicals, paints and pigments, food and beverage, petroleum, industrial coatings, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, mineral product, and other industries. This segment also offers flexible intermediate bulk containers and related services to the agriculture, construction, and food industries. The Paper Packaging & Services segment produces and sells containerboards, corrugated sheets and containers, and other corrugated and specialty products to customers in the packaging, automotive, food, and building products markets; and produces and sells coated and uncoated recycled paperboard, and recycled fiber. This segment's corrugated container products are used to ship various products, such as home appliances, small machinery, grocery products, automotive components, books, and furniture, as well as various other applications. The Land Management segment engages in harvesting and regeneration of timber properties; and sale of timberland and special use properties. As of October 31, 2021, this segment owned approximately 175,000 acres of timber properties in the southeastern United States. The company was formerly known as Greif Bros. Corporation and changed its name to Greif, Inc. in 2001. Greif, Inc. was founded in 1877 and is headquartered in Delaware, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreif makes money primarily through the sale of its industrial packaging products and related services. Its revenue model is based on manufacturing and distributing a wide array of packaging solutions, including steel and plastic drums, IBCs, and paper-based packaging products. Key revenue streams for the company include direct sales to businesses across various industries requiring robust packaging solutions for transportation and storage of goods. Additionally, Greif benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with major corporations, which ensure a steady demand for its products. The company also generates income from its paper and recycling operations, which involve the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated products.

Greif Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 04, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 27.56%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Greif's earnings call demonstrated strong performance in polymer solutions and significant progress in cost optimization, with commendable recognition and awards. However, challenges remain in metal solutions and the North American market. Despite these challenges, the raised guidance and positive EBITDA growth indicate a largely positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Raised Full Year Guidance
Greif has raised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2025. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be at least $725 million, up from $710 million, and adjusted free cash flow guidance is increased to $280 million from $245 million.
Strong Performance in Polymer Solutions
The Polymer Solutions segment saw year-over-year volume improvements, with small containers and IBC both up. This growth was driven by target end markets including agrochemicals, food and beverage, pharma, and flavors and fragrances.
Cost Optimization Progress
Greif achieved $10 million in run-rate savings toward its full-year commitment of $15 million to $25 million and $100 million total commitment compared to the 2024 baseline.
Awards and Recognition
Greif was named one of Newsweek's Top 100 Most Loved Workplaces for the third consecutive year and received Gallup's Exceptional Workplace Award for the second year in a row.
Adjusted EBITDA Increase
Adjusted EBITDA increased $44 million year-over-year to $214 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was up 300 basis points to 15.4%.
Negative Updates
Softness in Metal Solutions
Metal Solutions sales were lower year-over-year due to softness in industrial end markets, particularly chemicals and lubricants, which continue to be softer.
Volume Decline in Fiber Solutions
Fiber Solutions volumes were down slightly compared to last year, although they improved each month throughout the quarter.
North America Market Challenges
Softness persisted in North America due to greater exposure to industrial end markets, particularly impacting large polymer drum volumes.
Company Guidance
During the Greif Second Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance, reflecting strong performance and strategic progress. Notably, they raised the low-end fiscal 2025 guidance, with adjusted EBITDA now expected to be at least $725 million, up from $710 million. Adjusted free cash flow guidance was also increased to $280 million from $245 million, driven by improved EBITDA and operating working capital management. The quarter saw an adjusted EBITDA of $214 million, marking a $44 million year-over-year increase, and an adjusted EBITDA margin rise of 300 basis points to 15.4%. The company highlighted significant achievements in cost optimization, realizing $10 million in run rate savings towards their full-year commitment of $15 million to $25 million and an overall $100 million target compared to 2024. This was part of their broader strategy to achieve $1 billion in EBITDA and $500 million in free cash flow by 2027.

Greif Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Greif Class A exhibits a solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and efficient cash flow management. While profitability margins are stable, there is potential to enhance them by optimizing costs. The balance sheet reveals a high leverage level, which may pose risks unless managed carefully. Overall, the company is well-positioned but should focus on debt reduction to strengthen its financial health.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Greif Class A demonstrates stable revenue growth, with a 1.37% increase in TTM revenue compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is healthy at 20.71%, while the net profit margin is moderate at 3.86%. Although the EBIT and EBITDA margins are satisfactory at 8.62% and 13.44% respectively, there's room for improvement in cost management to enhance profitability further.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.44, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks in volatile markets. However, the return on equity is decent at 9.99%, and the equity ratio stands at 31.60%, reflecting a balanced approach to asset management. Strengthening equity and reducing debt would improve financial stability.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Greif Class A shows a strong cash flow position with a free cash flow growth rate of 25.56% in the latest period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.73, demonstrating efficient cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also solid at 1.00, suggesting good cash conversion from earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.52B5.45B5.22B6.35B5.56B4.51B
Gross Profit1.14B1.07B1.15B1.29B1.09B914.70M
EBITDA742.50M715.80M824.50M839.20M845.70M601.70M
Net Income213.10M268.80M359.20M376.70M390.70M108.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.75B6.65B5.96B5.46B5.82B5.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments252.70M197.70M180.90M147.10M124.60M105.90M
Total Debt3.07B3.07B2.54B2.17B2.52B2.80B
Total Liabilities4.45B4.40B3.85B3.65B4.22B4.29B
Stockholders Equity2.13B2.08B1.95B1.76B1.51B1.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow212.80M169.50M435.90M474.50M248.70M317.90M
Operating Cash Flow369.60M356.00M649.50M657.50M396.00M454.70M
Investing Cash Flow-27.40M-658.30M-670.20M-28.20M46.80M-25.20M
Financing Cash Flow-314.30M324.30M69.70M-531.00M-422.90M-405.30M

Greif Class A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price69.66
Price Trends
50DMA
58.38
Positive
100DMA
56.81
Positive
200DMA
59.61
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.76
Negative
RSI
71.85
Negative
STOCH
82.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.42, above the 50-day MA of 58.38, and above the 200-day MA of 59.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.85 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEF.

Greif Class A Risk Analysis

Greif Class A disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greif Class A reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

Greif Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GEGEF
74
Outperform
$3.38B19.679.96%3.09%5.89%-23.91%
SOSON
71
Outperform
$4.60B30.325.54%4.54%-4.58%-61.14%
SESEE
68
Neutral
$4.83B15.8643.40%2.44%-2.45%-16.55%
67
Neutral
¥252.06B13.216.57%2.79%5.06%-11.45%
66
Neutral
$2.61B-69.06%9.15%4.42%70.21%
MYMYE
66
Neutral
$562.60M53.773.69%3.59%3.92%-73.64%
OIOI
65
Neutral
$2.34B-13.85%-5.29%18.22%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GEF
Greif Class A
69.66
15.04
27.54%
MYE
Myers Industries
15.63
3.61
30.03%
OI
O-I Glass
15.57
5.02
47.58%
SEE
Sealed Air
32.85
-0.11
-0.33%
SON
Sonoco Products
46.65
0.23
0.50%
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
4.43
1.42
47.18%

Greif Class A Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Greif Class A Divests Containerboard Business for $1.8 Billion
Positive
Jul 3, 2025

On July 1, 2025, Greif, Inc. announced the divestiture of its Containerboard Business for $1.8 billion, marking a significant step in its strategic transformation. This move is part of Greif’s ‘Build to Last’ strategy, aimed at sharpening its portfolio and enhancing capital efficiency. The divestiture includes the company’s Containerboard Mills, CorrChoice sheet feeder network, and a box plant in North Carolina, but excludes its URB network and converting facilities. The transaction is expected to close by the end of the fiscal year, with proceeds used to reduce debt and position the company for future growth in high-margin packaging solutions. This strategic shift is intended to reduce exposure to low-growth markets and focus on areas with greater stability and growth potential, ultimately aiming for $1 billion EBITDA and $500 million Free Cash Flow by 2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Greif Class A Sells Containerboard Business for $1.8B
Positive
Jul 1, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Greif, Inc. announced a definitive agreement to sell its Containerboard business, including Greif Containerboard Solutions, LLC and Box-Board Holding Corporation, to Packaging Corporation of America for $1.8 billion. This divestiture, which is expected to close by the end of fiscal year 2025, is part of Greif’s strategy to enhance its portfolio, improve capital utilization, and focus on growth priorities. The proceeds from the sale will be used to reduce debt, aiming for a leverage ratio below 2.0x, and will support strategic growth investments. This move is aligned with Greif’s ‘Build to Last’ strategy, aiming to deliver durable earnings and unlock value-creation opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greif Class A Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Greif, Inc. reported its fiscal second quarter 2025 results, showcasing a 6.5% increase in net income and a 26.0% rise in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year. The company continues to make strategic progress, including the sale of its timberland business and cost optimization initiatives, positioning itself for future success and value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 04, 2025