Greif Class A (GEF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.60B
• Dividend Yield: 3.19%
• Average Volume (3M): 259.51K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: -17.63%
• EPS Growth: -80.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 25,996,487
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 331,509
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 259,509
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: -33.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.15
• 1Y Price Target: $75.67
• Price Target Upside: 7.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $76.00 ▲(7.62% Upside)

The score is driven most by financials and the earnings outlook: improved leverage and reaffirmed FY2026 guidance with strong margin/EBITDA progress are positives, but they are tempered by weak TTM cash generation and negative free cash flow. Technicals are modestly supportive, and valuation is reasonable with a ~3.1% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Improved Leverage / Balance Sheet

Material deleveraging has meaningfully reduced balance-sheet risk and increases financial flexibility. A stronger capital structure supports sustained investment, dividend and buyback programs, and provides buffer against cyclical end‑market weakness over the next several quarters.

Cost Optimization Driving Margin Gains

Documented cost takeouts (current $65M run‑rate toward an $80–$90M target) and price/mix actions are producing durable margin expansion and EBITDA growth. Structural savings improve operating leverage, helping earnings resilience if volumes remain muted across cycles.

Product / Technology Advantage and Global Footprint

Deployment of proprietary SIOC barrier tech and global manufacturing scale indicate differentiated product capability and higher‑value solutions. This supports stickier customer relationships, potential premium pricing and secular demand across regulated industries over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation and Negative FCF

Current cash generation lags reported earnings, with negative free cash flow a structural red flag. Persistent working‑capital or capex demands could constrain sustained capital returns, reduce reinvestment capacity, and amplify liquidity risk if underlying cash conversion does not recover.

Earnings Quality Concerns

An outsized jump in reported net margins versus historical levels raises the risk that recent profitability includes one‑offs or timing effects. If non‑recurring benefits reverse, margins and return metrics could deteriorate, complicating forecasting and capital allocation decisions.

Persistent Volume Weakness Across End Markets

Ongoing mid‑single‑digit volume declines and muted demand in chemicals, housing and other end markets represent a structural headwind. Volume weakness limits sustainable revenue growth, pressures mix and margin recovery, and increases reliance on cost reductions for earnings maintenance.

Greif Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greif, Inc. engages in the production and sale of industrial packaging products and services worldwide. It operates in three segments: Global Industrial Packaging; Paper Packaging & Services; and Land Management. The Global Industrial Packaging segment produces and sells industrial packaging products, including steel, fiber, and plastic drums; rigid and flexible intermediate bulk containers; closure systems for industrial packaging products; transit protection products; water bottles, and remanufactured and reconditioned industrial containers; and various services, such as container life cycle management, filling, logistics, warehousing, and other packaging services to chemicals, paints and pigments, food and beverage, petroleum, industrial coatings, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, mineral product, and other industries. This segment also offers flexible intermediate bulk containers and related services to the agriculture, construction, and food industries. The Paper Packaging & Services segment produces and sells containerboards, corrugated sheets and containers, and other corrugated and specialty products to customers in the packaging, automotive, food, and building products markets; and produces and sells coated and uncoated recycled paperboard, and recycled fiber. This segment's corrugated container products are used to ship various products, such as home appliances, small machinery, grocery products, automotive components, books, and furniture, as well as various other applications. The Land Management segment engages in harvesting and regeneration of timber properties; and sale of timberland and special use properties. As of October 31, 2021, this segment owned approximately 175,000 acres of timber properties in the southeastern United States. The company was formerly known as Greif Bros. Corporation and changed its name to Greif, Inc. in 2001. Greif, Inc. was founded in 1877 and is headquartered in Delaware, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Greif generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily by selling its packaging products to a wide range of industries. The company's core revenue comes from the manufacturing and distribution of industrial containers, including steel and plastic drums, which are essential for the safe transportation and storage of hazardous and non-hazardous materials. Additionally, Greif earns revenue from its IBC solutions and related packaging services. Significant partnerships with major companies in the chemicals, food, and pharmaceutical sectors bolster its sales, while Greif's focus on sustainability and innovation helps attract new business. The company's ability to provide comprehensive packaging solutions, coupled with its global manufacturing footprint, allows it to capitalize on various market opportunities and maintain a steady revenue stream.

Greif Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and leverage look better in the TTM period (solid margins and materially improved debt-to-equity), but cash generation is a major concern: operating cash flow is low and free cash flow is negative, not supporting the earnings print. The mix of improved balance sheet vs. weak cash conversion and questions on earnings quality keeps the score below average.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rose ~5.8% with solid gross margin (~22.6%) and EBITDA margin (~15.9%). However, performance has been uneven over the last several years with revenue declines in 2023–2024 and a sharp step-up in TTM net profit margin (~27.5%) versus prior annual levels, suggesting earnings may be benefiting from non-recurring or unusually favorable items. Overall profitability looks healthy on the surface, but consistency/quality of earnings is the key concern.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially: debt-to-equity is ~0.43 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus much higher levels in 2021–2024, indicating a stronger capital structure and reduced balance-sheet risk. Equity is sizable relative to assets, and return on equity is very strong in TTM, though that strength likely ties to the unusually high TTM net income level. The main positive is the clear deleveraging trend; the main watch-out is how sustainable the recent profitability is.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened significantly in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow is low (~$34M) and free cash flow is negative (~-$143M), a sharp reversal from positive free cash flow in 2022–2024. Cash flow is also not keeping pace with reported earnings (operating cash flow is only ~6% of net income and free cash flow is negative relative to net income), raising questions around working capital swings, capital intensity, or timing effects. This is the clearest pressure point in the financials.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.29B	4.33B	5.22B	6.35B	5.56B
Gross Profit	950.73M	892.15M	1.15B	1.29B	1.09B
EBITDA	440.29M	534.44M	834.10M	803.50M	805.70M
Net Income	840.00M	265.96M	359.20M	376.70M	390.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.77B	6.65B	5.96B	5.47B	5.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	256.70M	197.70M	180.90M	147.10M	124.60M
Total Debt	1.57B	3.07B	2.54B	2.18B	2.52B
Total Liabilities	2.72B	4.40B	3.85B	3.66B	4.22B
Stockholders Equity	2.91B	2.08B	1.95B	1.76B	1.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-85.20M	169.50M	435.90M	474.50M	248.70M
Operating Cash Flow	58.60M	356.00M	649.50M	657.50M	396.00M
Investing Cash Flow	1.64B	-658.30M	-670.20M	-28.20M	46.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.69B	324.30M	69.70M	-531.00M	-422.90M

Greif Class A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 70.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 70.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.18, above the 50-day MA of 68.20, and above the 200-day MA of 62.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GEF.

Greif Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SEE	71 Outperform	$6.17B	15.57	40.42%	1.94%	-1.22%	-0.76%
SLGN	68 Neutral	$4.56B	14.66	14.58%	1.97%	11.10%	6.54%
GEF	64 Neutral	$3.60B	18.76	2.08%	3.19%	-17.63%	-80.32%
SON	63 Neutral	$4.73B	4,948.45	6.39%	4.33%	8.31%	-99.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AMBP	56 Neutral	$2.62B	-327.61	―	9.90%	10.34%	87.86%
OI	54 Neutral	$2.35B	-16.09	-10.92%	―	-2.82%	65.31%

Greif Class A Corporate Events

Greif Class A Posts Strong Q1 Profit Rebound, Buybacks

On January 27, 2026, Greif reported fiscal first-quarter 2026 results for the period ended December 31, 2025, showing a sharp rebound in profitability from continuing operations following the August 31, 2025 divestiture of its containerboard business. Net income surged to $176.6 million, or $3.00 per diluted Class A share, while net income excluding adjustments rose 146.3% to $26.6 million and Adjusted EBITDA grew 24.0% to $122.5 million, driven largely by substantial cost optimization in manufacturing and SG&A that reached a $65 million run rate toward a $120 million target. Although operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow turned negative partly because prior-year figures included the now-divested containerboard business, the company used proceeds from the containerboard and timberlands sales to cut total debt to $944.0 million, reduce net debt to $700.5 million, and lower its leverage ratio from 3.6x to 1.2x. Greif also executed approximately $130 million in share repurchases in the quarter and secured board authorization for an additional $300 million of future repurchases, underscoring a more shareholder-focused capital allocation strategy, and reaffirmed the low end of its full-year 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow, signaling management’s confidence in continued margin and earnings resilience despite muted demand and lower volumes across several segments.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Hold with a $79.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.

Greif Class A Reports Q4 2025 Financial Results

On November 6, 2025, Greif, Inc. held a conference call to discuss its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, which ended on September 30, 2025. The company reported a significant decrease in net income for both the two-month fourth quarter and the eleven-month fiscal year, primarily due to tax-related expenses and the divestment of its containerboard business. Despite these challenges, Greif achieved a 7.4% increase in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter and a 10.9% increase for the fiscal year. The company also completed the sale of its timberlands business and announced plans for cost optimization and share repurchases, reflecting confidence in its future earnings potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Hold with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.