Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP)
NYSE:AMBP
Top Page
Ardagh Metal Packaging
(NYSE:AMBP)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(5.88% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (high debt and negative equity) and thin bottom-line profitability, despite solid recent cash generation. Offsetting positives include constructive price trend signals and a generally upbeat earnings call with higher 2026 EBITDA guidance, though near-term cost and volume headwinds and elevated leverage remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Consistent cash generation
AMBP’s multi-year positive operating cash flow and recurring positive free cash flow demonstrate durable cash-generation capacity from core manufacturing. This supports debt service, dividend continuity and measured capex for capacity expansion, reducing reliance on external financing during normal cycles.
Negative Factors
High leverage and negative equity
AMBP’s elevated debt load and recent negative equity materially weaken its capital structure, limiting resilience to demand shocks. High leverage constrains strategic options, increases refinancing and covenant risk, and elevates the company’s sensitivity to interest costs and cash-flow volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent cash generation
AMBP’s multi-year positive operating cash flow and recurring positive free cash flow demonstrate durable cash-generation capacity from core manufacturing. This supports debt service, dividend continuity and measured capex for capacity expansion, reducing reliance on external financing during normal cycles.
Read all positive factors
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.54B
Dividend Yield9.9%
Average Volume (3M)1.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth10.34%
EPS Growth87.86%
CountryUS
Employees6,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding597,699,600
10 Day Avg. Volume1,525,775
30 Day Avg. Volume1,819,341
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.76
Price to Book (P/B)-3.59
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio9.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.84Price Target Upside13.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.78B
Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. supplies metal beverage cans in Europe, the United States, and Brazil. Its products are used in various end-use categories, including beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktai...
How the Company Makes Money
AMBP primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling aluminum beverage cans and can ends to beverage producers under supply agreements and purchase orders. Revenue is generated on a per-unit basis (e.g., per can/can-end shipped), typically supp...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a largely positive operational and financial story: AMP delivered >3% shipments growth, a 10% increase in adjusted EBITDA, beat quarterly and full-year guidance, generated $172M adjusted free cash flow, and strengthened liquidity and maturities through a $1.3B green bond. These positives are tempered by near-term headwinds — notably metal supply disruptions raising costs (expected to persist into H1 2026), a planned North America transition year with a small volume decline due to contract/footprint resets, elevated net leverage (5.3x) after refinancing, and regional softness in Brazil and parts of Europe. Management provided measured plans (capacity additions, operational savings) and 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance above 2025, indicating confidence in addressing the challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
2025 shipments growth of over 3% and year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%; full-year adjusted EBITDA of $739 million, significantly ahead of initial guidance of $675M–$695M.
Negative Updates
Metal Supply Disruptions and Cost Headwinds
Ongoing tight metal supply after disruptions at a major supplier's rolling mill created operational challenges (shorter runs, suboptimal freight) and additional costs in Q4; management expects these incremental costs to persist through the first half of 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
2025 shipments growth of over 3% and year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%; full-year adjusted EBITDA of $739 million, significantly ahead of initial guidance of $675M–$695M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AMP guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $750–$775 million (Q1 guided at $160–$170 million, ahead of last year on a constant‑currency basis), expecting Europe volumes to grow around 3% and Brazil to grow low‑to‑mid single digits with AMP broadly tracking the market, while North America is expected to see industry low single‑digit growth but AMP anticipates a small volume decline in 2026 (a transition year) before returning to at least industry growth in 2027; cash‑flow items for 2026 were guided to total CapEx slightly above $200 million, lease principal repayments of approximately $150 million, cash interest of circa $220 million, cash tax a little over $30 million and a small working‑capital outflow, with the quarterly ordinary dividend unchanged at $0.10 per share (2025 adjusted free cash flow was $172 million, year‑end liquidity $964 million and net leverage 5.3x; FY25 adjusted EBITDA was $739 million and Q4 EBITDA was $166 million).Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.50B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.69B | 4.05B |
| Gross Profit | 559.00M | 630.00M | 474.00M | 526.00M | 616.00M |
| EBITDA | 739.00M | 629.00M | 508.00M | 743.00M | 281.00M |
| Net Income | 11.00M | -3.00M | -50.00M | 237.00M | -210.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.68B | 5.46B | 5.67B | 5.87B | 5.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 522.00M | 602.00M | 434.00M | 555.00M | 560.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.42B | 3.90B | 3.73B | 3.59B | 2.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.35B | 5.60B | 5.56B | 5.41B | 5.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | -683.00M | -142.00M | 100.00M | 455.00M | 286.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 265.00M | 263.00M | 237.00M | -391.00M | -229.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 449.00M | 450.00M | 616.00M | 205.00M | 458.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -184.00M | -179.00M | -378.00M | -595.00M | -691.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -374.00M | -81.00M | -348.00M | 499.00M | 454.00M |
Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis
Positive
4.25
Price Trends
4.41
Negative
4.10
Positive
3.91
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
43.99
Neutral
73.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.29, below the 50-day MA of 4.41, and above the 200-day MA of 3.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBP.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $11.51B | 16.16 | 25.41% | 1.01% | 2.94% | 893.70% | |
67 Neutral | $5.28B | 10.96 | 32.44% | 4.33% | 8.31% | -99.39% | |
66 Neutral | $15.87B | 15.93 | 16.89% | 1.53% | 2.87% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $784.35M | 20.03 | 12.22% | 2.80% | 0.26% | 78.05% | |
63 Neutral | $4.09B | 14.78 | 13.03% | 1.97% | 11.10% | 6.54% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $2.54B | ― | -2.78% | 9.90% | 10.34% | 87.86% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
4.15
1.47
54.85%
BALL
Ball
59.64
8.33
16.24%
CCK
Crown Holdings
101.69
12.86
14.47%
MYE
Myers Industries
20.97
9.08
76.37%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
38.80
-11.77
-23.28%
SON
Sonoco Products
53.56
8.78
19.61%
Ardagh Metal Packaging Corporate Events
Ardagh Metal Packaging Files 2025 Annual Report and Form 6-K with SEC
Mar 5, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., the Luxembourg-headquartered metal beverage can producer listed on the NYSE, has filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2025, alongside a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange ...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Files 2025 Audited Results and Confirms Effective Internal Controls
Feb 26, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. has filed its Form 6-K for February 2026, furnishing audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, along with management’s report on internal control over financial reporting and ...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Lifts 2025 Earnings, Refinances with Green Bonds and Plans European Capacity Expansion
Feb 26, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 26, 2026, showing 2025 revenue up 12% to $5.5 billion and Adjusted EBITDA up 10% to $739 million, turning a small prior-year loss into an $11 million profit....
Ardagh Metal Packaging Declares $0.10 Quarterly Interim Dividend
Feb 26, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., a major producer of metal beverage cans for global brands, operates 23 plants across nine countries and focuses on sustainable, infinitely recyclable packaging solutions. The Luxembourg-based company generated about $5...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.