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Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)
NYSE:AMBP
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Ardagh Metal Packaging
(NYSE:AMBP)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(11.73% Upside)
Positive Factors
Demand Drivers
Both AMBP and CANPACK spoke positively of the structural demand drivers in Europe, with factors like recyclability and sustainability regulations driving higher can penetration.
Financial Performance
AMBP reported a strong set of 1Q25 results, posting an 8% adj. EBITDA beat and global shipments coming in ~400bps higher than consensus.
Negative Factors
Market Uncertainty
Investors may look at the guidance raise with skepticism considering the continued macro/geopolitical uncertainty.
Shareholder Concerns
There are concerns for potential beverage can headwinds and the overhang of a struggling controlling shareholder.
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.12B
Dividend Yield11.17%
Average Volume (3M)1.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth8.39%
EPS Growth72.18%
CountryUS
Employees6,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength82
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding597,699,600
10 Day Avg. Volume832,198
30 Day Avg. Volume1,487,930
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.41Price Target Upside23.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionArdagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) is a leading global supplier of sustainable metal beverage cans. The company operates in the packaging sector and is renowned for its production of high-quality aluminum and steel cans for various beverage industries, including soft drinks, beer, and energy drinks. AMBP is committed to innovation and sustainability, offering environmentally friendly solutions to its clients worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyArdagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of metal beverage cans. The company's key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major beverage companies, which provide a stable and recurring income. AMBP benefits from economies of scale, allowing it to produce cans efficiently and cost-effectively. Additionally, strategic partnerships with beverage brands enable AMBP to secure a significant market share and enhance its competitive edge. The company's focus on sustainability and innovation further strengthens its market position, attracting environmentally conscious customers and fostering long-term client relationships.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong performance in the Americas and improved guidance, yet faced challenges in Europe and a cautious outlook for Q4. The positive aspects slightly outweigh the negatives.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Global Shipments and EBITDA Growth
Global shipments grew by 5% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 18% versus the prior year, driven by strong volume growth in the Americas.
Americas Revenue and EBITDA Surge
In the Americas, revenue increased by 21% to $840 million with adjusted EBITDA rising by 34% to $133 million, due to favorable volume growth and lower operating costs.
Positive Liquidity and Leverage Position
The company ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of $680 million and reduced net leverage from 5.8x to 5.3x.
Upgraded Full Year Guidance
Full year adjusted EBITDA guidance has been upgraded to a range of $705 million to $725 million based on current FX rates.
Continued Growth in North America
North American shipments increased by 8% for the quarter, with strong demand in nonalcoholic beverages, particularly energy drinks and sparkling waters.
Negative Updates
European Segment Challenges
Adjusted EBITDA in Europe decreased by 3% due to headwinds related to input costs and temporary impacts from falling aluminum prices.
Weakness in Beer Sales in Europe
Shipments in Europe grew by only 1%, with beer sales negatively impacted by adverse weather and capacity constraints in certain can formats.
Brazil Market Slowdown
Despite outperforming the industry in Brazil, the overall market is expected to grow only modestly post-Carnival, with full year shipment growth guidance for Brazil at low single-digit percentage.
Cautious Outlook for Q4
The implied EBITDA for Q4 is expected to be down year-on-year, reflecting uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment.
Company Guidance
During Ardagh Metal Packaging's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 5% increase in global shipments and an 18% growth in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year, surpassing their guidance. The Americas showed particularly strong performance, with revenue rising by 21% to $840 million and adjusted EBITDA growing by 34% to $133 million, driven by higher volumes and favorable category mix. In North America, shipments increased by 8%, supported by robust market demand for carbonated soft drinks and energy drinks. Brazil also saw a 12% rise in beverage can shipments. In Europe, revenue increased by 9% to $615 million, but adjusted EBITDA decreased by 3% due to input cost headwinds. The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $680 million and a net leverage ratio of 5.3x. Ardagh Metal Packaging upgraded its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $705-$725 million, expecting full-year shipment growth between 3% and 4%. For the third quarter, adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $200 million and $210 million.Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ardagh Metal Packaging shows positive revenue growth and profitability improvements, but the balance sheet's high leverage and negative equity present substantial financial risk. Cash flow generation is strong, yet maintaining margin expansion and strengthening equity are crucial for long-term stability.Income Statement
Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a positive trajectory in revenue growth, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $5.23 billion, up from $4.91 billion annually, indicating a 6.59% growth rate. The gross profit margin improved to 12.25% in TTM from 12.84% annually, while the net profit margin turned positive at 0.13%, recovering from a negative margin. However, EBITDA margin slightly decreased to 11.41% from 12.82%. Profitability improvements are seen, but maintaining margin expansion remains a challenge.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet indicates high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that is not calculable due to negative equity in TTM. Stockholders' equity has turned negative, reflecting potential financial instability. The equity ratio is negative due to liabilities exceeding assets. These factors highlight significant financial risk and the need for strengthening equity to improve financial health.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals consistent free cash flow generation, with a positive free cash flow of $285 million in TTM. However, free cash flow growth is moderate at 8.37% compared to the previous period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is influenced by low net income, suggesting caution in assessing cash flow sustainability.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.23B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.69B | 4.05B | 3.45B |
| Gross Profit | 641.00M | 630.00M | 474.00M | 526.00M | 616.00M | 548.00M |
| EBITDA | 597.00M | 629.00M | 508.00M | 747.00M | 281.00M | 542.00M |
| Net Income | 7.00M | -3.00M | -50.00M | 237.00M | -210.00M | 111.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.49B | 5.46B | 5.67B | 5.87B | 5.33B | 4.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 256.00M | 602.00M | 434.00M | 550.00M | 460.00M | 254.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.06B | 3.90B | 3.73B | 3.59B | 2.89B | 2.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.81B | 5.60B | 5.56B | 5.41B | 5.04B | 4.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | -326.00M | -142.00M | 100.00M | 455.00M | 286.00M | 48.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 285.00M | 263.00M | 237.00M | -391.00M | -229.00M | 66.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 454.00M | 450.00M | 616.00M | 205.00M | 458.00M | 334.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -162.00M | -179.00M | -378.00M | -595.00M | -691.00M | -268.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -278.00M | -81.00M | -348.00M | 499.00M | 454.00M | -98.00M |
Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis
Negative
3.58
Price Trends
4.01
Negative
3.81
Negative
3.27
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.11
Positive
37.24
Neutral
18.64
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.73, below the 50-day MA of 4.01, and above the 200-day MA of 3.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMBP.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $10.97B | 19.78 | 20.64% | 1.09% | 2.07% | 32.37% | |
68 Neutral | $13.86B | 23.78 | 9.59% | 1.57% | -3.12% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $4.82B | 16.05 | 37.35% | 2.44% | -2.00% | -18.50% | |
63 Neutral | $19.13B | 25.93 | 6.55% | 6.14% | 10.03% | -28.33% | |
61 Neutral | $17.99B | 12.87 | -3.56% | 2.97% | 1.27% | -14.28% | |
61 Neutral | $4.83B | 16.04 | 14.54% | 1.75% | 5.49% | -1.01% | |
58 Neutral | $2.12B | ― | -69.06% | 11.17% | 8.39% | 72.18% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
3.58
0.49
15.86%
BALL
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50.94
-12.42
-19.60%
CCK
Crown Holdings
94.23
4.31
4.79%
SEE
Sealed Air
32.74
0.24
0.74%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
45.17
-4.02
-8.17%
AMCR
Amcor
8.30
-2.21
-21.03%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.