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Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)
NYSE:AMBP
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Ardagh Metal Packaging
(NYSE:AMBP)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(0.76% Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial performance
AMBP reported a strong set of 1Q25 results, posting an 8% adj. EBITDA beat and global shipments coming in ~400bps higher than consensus.
Guidance and outlook
The company raised its 2025 adj. EBITDA guide by ~3% and raised its global shipment outlook to +3-4% from +2-3%.
Industry demand
The industry is benefiting from healthy volumes with a mostly favorable geographic and end market mix.
Negative Factors
Inflation risk
Volume estimates remain modestly below guidance in North America reflective of the risk of re-accelerating inflation leading to reduced consumer demand.
Market skepticism
Investors may look at the guidance raise with skepticism considering the continued macro/geopolitical uncertainty.
Shareholder concerns
There are concerns for potential beverage can headwinds and the overhang of a struggling controlling shareholder.
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.37B
Dividend Yield10.36%
Average Volume (3M)1.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth8.39%
EPS Growth72.18%
CountryUS
Employees6,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength71
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding597,699,600
10 Day Avg. Volume1,706,860
30 Day Avg. Volume1,736,919
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.36Price Target Upside9.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionArdagh Metal Packaging S.A. supplies metal beverage cans in Europe, the United States, and Brazil. Its products are used in various end-use categories, including beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, teas, sparkling waters, and wine. The company serves beverage producers. The company is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.
How the Company Makes MoneyArdagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of metal beverage cans. The company's key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major beverage companies, which provide a stable and recurring income. AMBP benefits from economies of scale, allowing it to produce cans efficiently and cost-effectively. Additionally, strategic partnerships with beverage brands enable AMBP to secure a significant market share and enhance its competitive edge. The company's focus on sustainability and innovation further strengthens its market position, attracting environmentally conscious customers and fostering long-term client relationships.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: -12.17%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a strong overall performance with significant EBITDA growth and positive results from the Americas. However, challenges in Europe and a conservative outlook for the latter half of the year indicate a balanced performance with notable achievements and persistent challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Year-to-Date Performance
Global shipments grew by 5% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 18% compared to the prior year, outperforming guidance.
Americas Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenue in the Americas increased by 21% to $840 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 34% due to favorable volume growth and lower operating costs.
Positive Liquidity and Leverage Position
End of quarter liquidity position of $680 million with no near-term bond maturities and a decline in net leverage to 5.3x from 5.8x.
Upgraded Full-Year EBITDA Guidance
Full year adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to a range of $705 million to $725 million, based on current FX rates.
Negative Updates
Europe EBITDA Decrease
Adjusted EBITDA in Europe decreased by 3% due to headwinds related to input costs, including a temporary impact from falling aluminum prices.
Challenges with Capacity Constraints
Constraints on certain can formats in Europe during the summer season limited the ability to follow growth in soft drink cans.
Weaker Beer Market in Europe
Beer sales in cans were negatively impacted by adverse weather and were weaker compared to other substrates.
Conservative Outlook for Second Half
Anticipated slow down in growth rates for the Americas and Brazil in the second half, reflecting cautious macroeconomic environment.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP) demonstrated robust performance, exceeding guidance with a 5% increase in global shipments and an 18% growth in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year. This growth was notably driven by strong volume increases in the Americas, where revenue surged 21% to $840 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 34% to $133 million. In North America, shipments grew by 8%, while Brazil saw a 12% increase in beverage can shipments. Conversely, in Europe, revenue grew 9% to $615 million, but adjusted EBITDA declined by 3% to $77 million due to input cost challenges. Overall, AMP anticipates full-year adjusted EBITDA between $705 million and $725 million and projects full-year shipments growth of 3% to 4%. The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $680 million, a net leverage ratio of 5.3x, and expects adjusted free cash flow of at least $150 million for the full year.Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ardagh Metal Packaging shows mixed financial performance. Income statement reflects growth and improved operational margins, yet profitability remains a concern. Balance sheet reveals high leverage and negative equity, raising financial stability concerns. Cash flow highlights strong cash generation capabilities, indicating efficient liquidity management. Addressing leverage and equity issues is crucial for long-term stability.Income Statement
Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a healthy TTM revenue growth rate of 2.59% and a significant improvement in net income from a loss in the previous period to a modest profit. The gross profit margin is consistent, indicating stable cost management, while the EBIT and EBITDA margins have strengthened, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. However, the company faces challenges with profitability, as indicated by the relatively low net profit margin, suggesting room for improvement.68
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet highlights substantial leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity indicating potential financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not favorable due to negative equity, indicating high financial risk. However, the company maintains a considerable asset base which might offer some operational support, but the negative equity ratio suggests significant vulnerability.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Ardagh Metal Packaging's cash flow exhibits positive trends with strong operating cash flow and a substantial free cash flow growth rate of 19.77%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, underscoring efficient cash management relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio could further improve, suggesting potential for enhanced cash generation.72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.69B | 4.05B | 3.45B |
| Gross Profit | 630.00M | 474.00M | 526.00M | 616.00M | 548.00M |
| EBITDA | 629.00M | 508.00M | 747.00M | 281.00M | 542.00M |
| Net Income | -3.00M | -50.00M | 237.00M | -210.00M | 111.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.46B | 5.67B | 5.87B | 5.33B | 4.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 602.00M | 434.00M | 550.00M | 460.00M | 254.00M |
| Total Debt | 3.90B | 3.73B | 3.59B | 2.89B | 2.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.60B | 5.56B | 5.41B | 5.04B | 4.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | -142.00M | 100.00M | 455.00M | 286.00M | 48.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 263.00M | 237.00M | -391.00M | -229.00M | 66.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 450.00M | 616.00M | 205.00M | 458.00M | 334.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -179.00M | -378.00M | -595.00M | -691.00M | -268.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -81.00M | -348.00M | 499.00M | 454.00M | -98.00M |
Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.97
Price Trends
4.11
Negative
3.63
Positive
3.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
42.06
Neutral
27.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.04, below the 50-day MA of 4.11, and above the 200-day MA of 3.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AMBP.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $22.22B | 17.30 | 20.71% | 5.19% | -2.29% | 24.05% | |
71 Outperform | $11.73B | 21.15 | 20.64% | 1.02% | 2.07% | 32.37% | |
69 Neutral | $4.95B | 16.43 | 14.54% | 1.69% | 5.49% | -1.01% | |
68 Neutral | $4.27B | 14.24 | 37.35% | 2.68% | -2.00% | -18.50% | |
61 Neutral | $17.22B | 11.58 | -7.48% | 3.16% | 1.46% | -15.87% | |
61 Neutral | $14.60B | 25.05 | 9.59% | 1.50% | -3.12% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $2.37B | ― | -69.06% | 10.36% | 8.39% | 72.18% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
3.97
1.14
40.28%
BALL
Ball
53.50
-7.84
-12.78%
CCK
Crown Holdings
101.60
16.06
18.77%
SEE
Sealed Air
29.86
-1.80
-5.69%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
46.44
-1.85
-3.83%
AMCR
Amcor
9.77
-0.37
-3.65%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.