Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.62B
• Dividend Yield: 9.9%
• Average Volume (3M): 745.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: 10.34%
• EPS Growth: 87.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,300
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 597,699,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 704,329
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 745,086
• PEG Ratio: 9.62
• Price to Book (P/B): -12.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.24
• 1Y Price Target: $4.53
• Price Target Upside: 3.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▲(2.51% Upside)

Ardagh Metal Packaging's overall score is driven by moderate financial performance and technical indicators, with a strong earnings call providing some optimism. However, high financial leverage and profitability challenges weigh heavily, alongside valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Growth

A 140% TTM increase in free cash flow signals durable cash-generation improvement, giving management flexibility to invest in capacity, pay down debt, and fund sustainability projects. Strong FCF reduces refinancing risk and supports long-term operational resilience.

Regional Revenue and Shipments Growth

Simultaneous revenue and shipment growth across Europe and the Americas reflects diversified end-market demand and expanding commercial footprint. This multi-region momentum helps stabilize volumes against local downturns and supports steady manufacturing throughput and margin recovery over time.

Recapitalization and Board/Capital Structure Moves

The recapitalization transfers control to long-term note holders and introduced board changes, strengthening the balance sheet and investor base. This structural transaction reduces near-term refinancing stress and aligns governance with creditors focused on operational recovery and sustainable capital structure.

Negative Factors

High Financial Leverage and Negative Equity

Negative shareholders' equity and a distorted debt-to-equity metric indicate heavy reliance on debt financing and past losses. Persistent leverage constrains strategic flexibility, raises refinancing needs, and increases vulnerability to cost shocks or volume weakness over the medium term.

Thin Profitability Margins

Low gross and net margins limit the company's ability to absorb commodity or cost inflation and reduce retained earnings to rebuild equity. Even with solid volumes, thin conversion margins mean long-term earnings volatility and slower capacity to deleverage via internally generated profits.

Customer/Category Concentration and Operational Risks

Heavy exposure to beer (a large share of EU volumes) and market-specific setbacks in Brazil amplify demand cyclicality. Combined with supply issues and plant disruptions, this concentration and operational fragility can depress volumes and utilization, pressuring margins and recovery timelines.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. supplies metal beverage cans in Europe, the United States, and Brazil. Its products are used in various end-use categories, including beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, teas, sparkling waters, and wine. The company serves beverage producers. The company is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.

How the Company Makes Money

AMBP generates revenue through the production and sale of metal packaging products to various industries, including beverage, food, and personal care. Its key revenue streams include the sale of aluminum and steel cans, which are in high demand due to the growing trend towards sustainable packaging solutions. The company benefits from long-term contracts with major clients in the beverage industry, ensuring a steady flow of income. Additionally, AMBP invests in research and development to create innovative packaging solutions, enhancing its market competitiveness. The company's strategic partnerships with global beverage brands and its focus on sustainability also contribute to its earnings by aligning with consumer preferences for eco-friendly products, thereby driving sales and enhancing brand loyalty.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ardagh Metal Packaging shows modest revenue growth and operational efficiency but faces significant financial leverage and profitability challenges. Strong cash flow generation is a positive, yet high debt levels and negative equity raise concerns about financial stability.

Income Statement

Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a modest revenue growth rate of 2.2% TTM, indicating steady sales expansion. However, the gross profit margin of 11.5% and net profit margin of 0.3% TTM suggest limited profitability. The EBIT margin of 4.5% and EBITDA margin of 11.7% TTM are moderate, reflecting operational efficiency but also highlighting room for improvement in cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company faces significant financial leverage challenges, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -12.0 TTM due to negative stockholders' equity. This indicates high reliance on debt financing, posing potential risks. The return on equity is negative, reflecting losses and indicating inefficiencies in generating shareholder returns. The equity ratio is also negative, underscoring financial instability.

Cash Flow

Ardagh Metal Packaging demonstrates strong free cash flow growth of 140.4% TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.32 TTM suggests adequate cash flow relative to earnings, while the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.62 TTM highlights effective cash management despite profitability challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.35B	4.91B	4.81B	4.69B	4.05B	3.45B
Gross Profit	615.00M	630.00M	474.00M	526.00M	616.00M	548.00M
EBITDA	625.00M	629.00M	508.00M	743.00M	281.00M	604.00M
Net Income	16.00M	-3.00M	-50.00M	237.00M	-210.00M	111.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.46B	5.46B	5.67B	5.87B	5.33B	4.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	317.00M	602.00M	434.00M	555.00M	560.00M	280.00M
Total Debt	4.09B	3.90B	3.73B	3.59B	2.90B	2.85B
Total Liabilities	5.79B	5.60B	5.56B	5.41B	5.04B	4.21B
Stockholders Equity	-342.00M	-142.00M	100.00M	455.00M	286.00M	48.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	289.00M	263.00M	237.00M	-391.00M	-229.00M	66.00M
Operating Cash Flow	466.00M	450.00M	616.00M	205.00M	458.00M	334.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-178.00M	-179.00M	-378.00M	-595.00M	-691.00M	-268.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-365.00M	-81.00M	-348.00M	499.00M	454.00M	-98.00M

Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.39
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.32, above the 50-day MA of 4.09, and above the 200-day MA of 3.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBP.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCK	73 Outperform	$12.07B	12.95	34.10%	1.01%	2.94%	893.70%
MYE	69 Neutral	$773.22M	27.76	9.92%	2.80%	0.26%	78.05%
SLGN	68 Neutral	$4.56B	14.66	14.58%	1.97%	11.10%	6.54%
SON	63 Neutral	$4.73B	4,948.45	6.39%	4.33%	8.31%	-99.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BALL	59 Neutral	$15.24B	21.28	11.74%	1.53%	2.87%	―
AMBP	56 Neutral	$2.62B	-332.09	―	9.90%	10.34%	87.86%

Ardagh Metal Packaging Corporate Events

Ardagh Metal Packaging Faces NYSE Delisting of Warrants

On November 25, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. was informed by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) of its intention to delist the company’s warrants, traded under the ticker symbol ‘AMBP.WS’, due to abnormally low selling prices. Trading of these warrants was immediately suspended, and the company has decided not to appeal this decision. Despite this, the delisting will not affect the listing of Ardagh’s ordinary shares, which continue to trade on the NYSE under the symbol ‘AMBP’.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBP) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ardagh Metal Packaging stock, see the AMBP Stock Forecast page.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Prices $1.29 Billion in Green Notes to Extend Debt Maturities

On November 20, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced the pricing of $1,290 million in senior secured green notes, with proceeds aimed at refinancing existing debt and simplifying its capital structure. The transaction, which received strong investor support, extends AMP’s debt maturities and demonstrates its commitment to sustainability, while also achieving cost savings. The company also noted recent positive credit ratings from Fitch and Standard & Poor’s, reflecting its improved financial position and strong operating performance in 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBP) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ardagh Metal Packaging stock, see the AMBP Stock Forecast page.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Releases Supplemental Information to Enhance Transparency

On November 18, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced the release of supplemental company information on its website, providing stakeholders with additional insights into its operations. This move underscores AMP’s commitment to transparency and could enhance its market positioning by offering stakeholders detailed information about its business activities and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBP) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ardagh Metal Packaging stock, see the AMBP Stock Forecast page.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Launches $1.28 Billion Green Notes Offering

On November 18, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced the launch of a $1,280 million senior secured green notes offering. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem existing notes and preferred shares, as well as repay a term loan. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance AMP’s financial flexibility and support its sustainability initiatives, reinforcing its position as a leader in the sustainable packaging industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBP) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ardagh Metal Packaging stock, see the AMBP Stock Forecast page.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Completes Recapitalization with New Board Member

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced the successful completion of a recapitalization transaction on November 12, 2025, which involved transferring indirect ownership of Ardagh Group S.A. to former holders of its senior unsecured notes and PIK notes. This transaction, which does not affect the company’s share listing or capital structure, also brought changes to the board of directors, with Mark Porto joining and Paul Coulson resigning. The recapitalization is expected to strengthen Ardagh’s financial standing, involving major financial institutions and investment funds as long-term investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBP) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ardagh Metal Packaging stock, see the AMBP Stock Forecast page.