Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) AI Stock Analysis

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Ardagh Metal Packaging

(NYSE:AMBP)

Rating:66Neutral

Price Target:

$4.50

▲(1.58%Upside)

Ardagh Metal Packaging's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings performance and technical bullishness, despite high financial leverage and negative equity. While the valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio, the high dividend yield is a positive aspect for income-focused investors. The company's upgraded guidance and improved financial position are encouraging, but macroeconomic uncertainties pose a risk.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

AMBP reported a strong set of 1Q25 results, posting an 8% adj. EBITDA beat and global shipments coming in ~400bps higher than consensus.

Guidance and Outlook

The company raised its 2025 adj. EBITDA guide by ~3% and raised its global shipment outlook to +3-4% from +2-3%.

Negative Factors

Consumer Demand

Volume estimates remain modestly below guidance in North America reflective of the risk of re-accelerating inflation leading to reduced consumer demand.

Market Uncertainty

Investors may look at the guidance raise with skepticism considering the continued macro/geopolitical uncertainty.

Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.61B

Dividend Yield9.15%

Average Volume (3M)2.08M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.90

Revenue Growth4.42%

EPS Growth70.21%

CountryUS

Employees6,300

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength57

IndustryPackaging & Containers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.02

Shares Outstanding597,699,600

10 Day Avg. Volume1,836,645

30 Day Avg. Volume2,082,984

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.06

Price to Book (P/B)6.35

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-7.39

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.27

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.30

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.43

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.46

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.09

Price Target Upside-7.67% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering7

Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArdagh Metal Packaging S.A. supplies metal beverage cans in Europe, the United States, and Brazil. Its products are used in various end-use categories, including beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, teas, sparkling waters, and wine. The company serves beverage producers. The company is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.

How the Company Makes MoneyArdagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of metal beverage cans. The company's key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major beverage companies, which provide a stable and recurring income. AMBP benefits from economies of scale, allowing it to produce cans efficiently and cost-effectively. Additionally, strategic partnerships with beverage brands enable AMBP to secure a significant market share and enhance its competitive edge. The company's focus on sustainability and innovation further strengthens its market position, attracting environmentally conscious customers and fostering long-term client relationships.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 65.30%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a strong start to the fiscal year with significant growth in key metrics and positive momentum across regions, leading to an upgraded guidance. However, caution remains due to macroeconomic uncertainties and potential tariff impacts.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2025

Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP) reported a 6% increase in global shipments and a 16% growth in adjusted EBITDA, both metrics surpassing initial guidance.

Robust Performance in The Americas

Revenue in the Americas rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 16% to $106 million. Shipments in North America grew by 8%.

Positive Outlook and Increased Guidance

AMP has upgraded its full-year guidance, anticipating shipments growth of 3% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $695 million to $720 million.

Improved Financial Position

AMP ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $570 million. The net leverage ratio improved to 5.5 times, down from 6.2 times in Q1 2024.

Strong Performance in Europe

European revenue increased by 10% to $528 million, with adjusted EBITDA up by 14% to $49 million, driven by volume growth and cost recovery.

Negative Updates

Challenges in Brazil

Despite outperforming the industry, which grew modestly, AMP remains cautious about Brazil's market due to volatility and entering the winter selling period.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty

AMP expressed caution due to the volatile macroeconomic environment, which could impact future performance.

Potential Tariff Impacts

While minimal impact is anticipated, the tariff measures and potential inflationary pressures could affect AMP's business.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported a strong performance with a 6% increase in global shipments and a 16% rise in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year. This growth exceeded initial guidance, driven by higher volumes and improved fixed-cost absorption, particularly in The Americas. In Europe, revenues increased by 10% to $528 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 14% to $49 million. In The Americas, revenue rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA also increasing by 16% to $106 million. North America saw an 8% rise in shipments, influenced by strong demand in nonalcoholic beverages and energy drinks. In Brazil, shipments grew by 4%, outperforming the industry. The company upgraded its full-year guidance, now anticipating a 3% to 4% growth in shipments and adjusted EBITDA between $695 million and $720 million. The second-quarter EBITDA is expected to range between $195 million and $205 million. Despite potential macroeconomic uncertainties, the company's robust start to the year and favorable currency movements support this optimistic outlook.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ardagh Metal Packaging shows revenue growth and improved operational efficiency but faces profitability challenges. The balance sheet indicates high leverage and negative equity, raising financial stability concerns. Strong cash flow highlights efficient liquidity management.

Income Statement

Positive

Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a healthy TTM revenue growth rate of 2.59% and a significant improvement in net income from a loss in the previous period to a modest profit. The gross profit margin is consistent, indicating stable cost management, while the EBIT and EBITDA margins have strengthened, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. However, the company faces challenges with profitability, as indicated by the relatively low net profit margin, suggesting room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company's balance sheet highlights substantial leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity indicating potential financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not favorable due to negative equity, indicating high financial risk. However, the company maintains a considerable asset base which might offer some operational support, but the negative equity ratio suggests significant vulnerability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Ardagh Metal Packaging's cash flow exhibits positive trends with strong operating cash flow and a substantial free cash flow growth rate of 19.77%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, underscoring efficient cash management relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio could further improve, suggesting potential for enhanced cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.04B	4.91B	4.81B	4.69B	4.05B	3.45B
Gross Profit	629.00M	630.00M	474.00M	526.00M	616.00M	548.00M
EBITDA	591.00M	629.00M	508.00M	747.00M	281.00M	542.00M
Net Income	4.00M	-3.00M	-50.00M	237.00M	-210.00M	111.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.27B	5.46B	5.67B	5.87B	5.33B	4.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	177.00M	602.00M	434.00M	550.00M	460.00M	254.00M
Total Debt	3.95B	3.90B	3.73B	3.59B	2.89B	2.83B
Total Liabilities	5.50B	5.60B	5.56B	5.41B	5.04B	4.21B
Stockholders Equity	-230.00M	-142.00M	100.00M	455.00M	286.00M	48.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	315.00M	263.00M	237.00M	-391.00M	-229.00M	66.00M
Operating Cash Flow	478.00M	450.00M	616.00M	205.00M	458.00M	334.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-156.00M	-179.00M	-378.00M	-595.00M	-691.00M	-268.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-292.00M	-81.00M	-348.00M	499.00M	454.00M	-98.00M

Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price4.43

Price Trends

50DMA

3.88

Positive

100DMA

3.28

Positive

200DMA

3.21

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.15

Negative

RSI

72.95

Negative

STOCH

80.79

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.18, above the 50-day MA of 3.88, and above the 200-day MA of 3.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.95 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBP.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis

Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SLGN	74 Outperform	$5.97B	20.69	14.52%	1.43%	1.99%	-5.30%
CCK	70 Outperform	$12.26B	22.63	21.30%	0.99%	0.90%	34.40%
BALL	69 Neutral	$16.06B	30.71	8.23%	1.38%	-9.79%	―
SEE	68 Neutral	$4.71B	15.45	43.40%	2.50%	-2.45%	-16.55%
AMCR	67 Neutral	$21.83B	16.99	20.71%	5.38%	-2.29%	24.05%
AMBP	66 Neutral	$2.61B	―	-69.06%	9.15%	4.42%	70.21%
Sector *	65 Neutral	€21.06B	12.80	7.21%	3.45%	0.31%	-40.22%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AMBP

Ardagh Metal Packaging

4.43

1.42

47.18%

BALL

Ball

58.74

-0.08

-0.14%

CCK

Crown Holdings

106.91

36.18

51.15%

SEE

Sealed Air

32.85

-0.11

-0.33%

SLGN

Silgan Holdings

56.76

16.04

39.39%

AMCR

Amcor

9.69

0.65

7.19%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025