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Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)
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Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) AI Stock Analysis

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AMBP

Ardagh Metal Packaging

(NYSE:AMBP)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(6.67% Upside)
Ardagh Metal Packaging's overall score is driven by moderate financial performance and technical indicators, with a strong earnings call providing some optimism. However, high financial leverage and profitability challenges weigh heavily, alongside valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth in key markets like Europe and the Americas indicates robust demand and effective market penetration, supporting long-term business expansion.
Sustainability Initiatives
Significant progress in sustainability enhances brand reputation and aligns with global trends towards eco-friendly practices, potentially increasing market share.
Cash Flow Generation
Robust cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, allowing for reinvestment in growth opportunities and debt reduction, strengthening long-term financial health.
Negative Factors
High Financial Leverage
Significant reliance on debt financing poses risks to financial stability, potentially limiting strategic options and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.
Operational Challenges
Operational disruptions can hinder production efficiency and affect customer satisfaction, potentially impacting long-term growth and profitability.
Weakness in Key Markets
Weak performance in significant market segments like the beer category could limit revenue growth and affect market positioning, challenging future expansion.

Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArdagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) is a leading global supplier of sustainable metal packaging solutions, primarily serving the beverage, food, and personal care sectors. With a commitment to innovation and sustainability, AMBP manufactures a diverse range of aluminum and steel containers, including beverage cans, food cans, and specialty containers. The company operates numerous production facilities across multiple continents, leveraging advanced technologies to ensure high-quality products that meet the evolving needs of its customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyAMBP generates revenue through the production and sale of metal packaging products to various industries, including beverage, food, and personal care. Its key revenue streams include the sale of aluminum and steel cans, which are in high demand due to the growing trend towards sustainable packaging solutions. The company benefits from long-term contracts with major clients in the beverage industry, ensuring a steady flow of income. Additionally, AMBP invests in research and development to create innovative packaging solutions, enhancing its market competitiveness. The company's strategic partnerships with global beverage brands and its focus on sustainability also contribute to its earnings by aligning with consumer preferences for eco-friendly products, thereby driving sales and enhancing brand loyalty.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted a solid performance with adjusted EBITDA growth and strong liquidity, alongside significant sustainability progress. However, challenges remain with weak performance in the beer category, Brazilian market struggles, and operational issues in North America.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA grew by 6% in the third quarter, reaching $208 million, which was towards the upper end of the guidance range.
European and North American Revenue Growth
Revenue in Europe increased by 9% to $625 million and in the Americas by 8% to $803 million, driven by volume growth and higher input costs pass-through.
Sustainability Progress
Achieved a 10% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions and a 14% reduction in Scope 3 emissions compared to a 2020 baseline.
Robust Liquidity and Financial Position
Ended the quarter with over $600 million in liquidity and a net leverage ratio decline to 5.2x, with expectations to reduce further by year-end.
Negative Updates
Challenges in the Beer Category
Continued weakness in the beer category in Europe, which represents over 40% of the European portfolio, impacting shipment growth expectations.
Brazilian Market Weakness
Beverage can shipments in Brazil decreased by 17% due to a weak industry backdrop and adverse weather conditions.
Operational Challenges in North America
Faced operational challenges including aluminum can sheet supply issues and temporary plant and network disruptions, impacting growth.
Input Cost Recovery Headwinds
In Europe, adjusted EBITDA reduced by 4% on a constant currency basis due to input cost recovery headwinds, despite higher volumes.
Company Guidance
In Ardagh Metal Packaging's Q3 2025 earnings call, the company reported adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% year-over-year, reaching $208 million, which was toward the upper end of guidance. The growth was supported by increased shipments in Europe and North America, reduced operational and overhead costs, favorable category mix, and ongoing innovation in beverage cans. Despite global volumes being slightly below expectations, year-to-date volumes were up over 3% compared to the prior year. In Europe, revenue increased by 9% to $625 million, with shipments growing by 2%, offsetting continued weakness in the beer category, which comprises over 40% of the portfolio. In the Americas, revenue rose by 8% to $803 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 8% to $126 million. The company anticipates full-year adjusted EBITDA in the range of $720 million to $735 million and expects overall shipment growth of approximately 3% for 2025. Notably, the company has made significant progress in its sustainability agenda, achieving substantial reductions in Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ardagh Metal Packaging shows modest revenue growth and operational efficiency but faces significant financial leverage and profitability challenges. Strong cash flow generation is a positive, yet high debt levels and negative equity raise concerns about financial stability.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a modest revenue growth rate of 2.2% TTM, indicating steady sales expansion. However, the gross profit margin of 11.5% and net profit margin of 0.3% TTM suggest limited profitability. The EBIT margin of 4.5% and EBITDA margin of 11.7% TTM are moderate, reflecting operational efficiency but also highlighting room for improvement in cost management.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company faces significant financial leverage challenges, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -12.0 TTM due to negative stockholders' equity. This indicates high reliance on debt financing, posing potential risks. The return on equity is negative, reflecting losses and indicating inefficiencies in generating shareholder returns. The equity ratio is also negative, underscoring financial instability.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Ardagh Metal Packaging demonstrates strong free cash flow growth of 140.4% TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.32 TTM suggests adequate cash flow relative to earnings, while the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.62 TTM highlights effective cash management despite profitability challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.35B4.91B4.81B4.69B4.05B3.45B
Gross Profit615.00M630.00M474.00M526.00M616.00M548.00M
EBITDA625.00M629.00M508.00M743.00M281.00M604.00M
Net Income16.00M-3.00M-50.00M237.00M-210.00M111.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.46B5.46B5.67B5.87B5.33B4.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments317.00M602.00M434.00M555.00M560.00M280.00M
Total Debt4.09B3.90B3.73B3.59B2.90B2.85B
Total Liabilities5.79B5.60B5.56B5.41B5.04B4.21B
Stockholders Equity-342.00M-142.00M100.00M455.00M286.00M48.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow289.00M263.00M237.00M-391.00M-229.00M66.00M
Operating Cash Flow466.00M450.00M616.00M205.00M458.00M334.00M
Investing Cash Flow-178.00M-179.00M-378.00M-595.00M-691.00M-268.00M
Financing Cash Flow-365.00M-81.00M-348.00M499.00M454.00M-98.00M

Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.75
Price Trends
50DMA
3.64
Positive
100DMA
3.71
Positive
200DMA
3.44
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.04
Negative
RSI
59.68
Neutral
STOCH
83.05
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.55, above the 50-day MA of 3.64, and above the 200-day MA of 3.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBP.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis

Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$11.18B12.0034.10%1.07%2.94%893.70%
70
Outperform
$657.26M23.609.92%3.10%0.26%78.05%
66
Neutral
$4.18B13.4414.58%2.03%11.10%6.54%
63
Neutral
$4.12B4,310.316.39%5.05%8.31%-99.39%
62
Neutral
$13.30B18.5711.74%1.67%2.87%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
56
Neutral
$2.24B10.67%10.34%87.86%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
3.75
0.57
17.92%
BALL
Ball
49.63
-11.63
-18.98%
CCK
Crown Holdings
96.93
5.83
6.40%
MYE
Myers Industries
18.04
6.89
61.79%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
39.55
-17.11
-30.20%
SON
Sonoco Products
41.81
-7.65
-15.47%

Ardagh Metal Packaging Corporate Events

Ardagh Metal Packaging Releases Supplemental Information to Enhance Transparency
Nov 18, 2025

On November 18, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced the release of supplemental company information on its website, providing stakeholders with additional insights into its operations. This move underscores AMP’s commitment to transparency and could enhance its market positioning by offering stakeholders detailed information about its business activities and strategic direction.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Launches $1.28 Billion Green Notes Offering
Nov 18, 2025

On November 18, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced the launch of a $1,280 million senior secured green notes offering. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem existing notes and preferred shares, as well as repay a term loan. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance AMP’s financial flexibility and support its sustainability initiatives, reinforcing its position as a leader in the sustainable packaging industry.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Completes Recapitalization with New Board Member
Nov 13, 2025

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced the successful completion of a recapitalization transaction on November 12, 2025, which involved transferring indirect ownership of Ardagh Group S.A. to former holders of its senior unsecured notes and PIK notes. This transaction, which does not affect the company’s share listing or capital structure, also brought changes to the board of directors, with Mark Porto joining and Paul Coulson resigning. The recapitalization is expected to strengthen Ardagh’s financial standing, involving major financial institutions and investment funds as long-term investors.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Updates on Recapitalization Transaction
Oct 28, 2025

On October 27 and 28, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging announced updates regarding its consent solicitations tied to a recapitalization transaction initiated by its parent company, Ardagh Group S.A. The company received sufficient consents to proceed with amendments for certain notes, although it is reopening solicitations for some, while proposing alternative implementations for others. These developments are part of a broader strategy to manage its financial obligations without impacting its share listing or capital structure.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Oct 23, 2025

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. released its quarterly report for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, showing a revenue increase to $4,151 million from $3,713 million in the previous year. The company reported a gross profit of $545 million, reflecting its strong market performance and operational efficiency. The report highlights the company’s continued growth and solid financial standing, which may positively impact its stakeholders and reinforce its position in the metal packaging industry.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results with Increased Revenue and EBITDA
Oct 23, 2025

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported its third-quarter 2025 results, showing a 9% increase in revenue to $1,428 million compared to the same period last year. The company achieved a 6% growth in Adjusted EBITDA, reaching $208 million, driven by increased shipments in Europe and North America, lower operational costs, and a favorable category mix. Despite a decline in global beverage can shipments by 1%, the company experienced growth in North America and Europe, offset by a significant decline in Brazil. Ardagh Metal Packaging has raised its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $720-$735 million, reflecting confidence in its resilient business performance amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Announces Quarterly Dividend
Oct 23, 2025

On October 23, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced that its board of directors has approved a quarterly interim dividend of $0.10 per ordinary share, payable on November 13, 2025, to shareholders of record on November 3, 2025. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to delivering shareholder value and reflects its stable financial performance, reinforcing its position as a key player in the sustainable packaging industry.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Launches Consent Solicitations for Recapitalization
Sep 29, 2025

On September 29, 2025, Ardagh Holdings USA Inc., Ardagh Packaging Finance plc, and ARD Finance S.A. announced the launch of consent solicitations to noteholders of their existing notes as part of a recapitalization transaction. This move follows an agreement made on July 28, 2025, between Ardagh Group S.A. and its largest financial stakeholders. The recapitalization transaction will not affect the listing or capital structure of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., which remains a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2025