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Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)
NYSE:AMBP
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Ardagh Metal Packaging
(NYSE:AMBP)
62Neutral
Positive Factors
Earnings
AMBP reported a strong set of 1Q25 results, posting an 8% adj. EBITDA beat and global shipments coming in ~400bps higher than consensus.
Financial Outlook
The company raised its 2025 adj. EBITDA guide by ~3% and raised its global shipment outlook to +3-4% from +2-3%.
Management and Restructuring
Appointment of two new directors with extensive experience in dealing with distressed companies suggests potential for improved management and financial outcomes.
Negative Factors
Consumer Demand
Volume estimates remain modestly below guidance in North America reflective of the risk of re-accelerating inflation leading to reduced consumer demand.
Market Uncertainty
Investors may look at the guidance raise with skepticism considering the continued macro/geopolitical uncertainty.
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.22B
Dividend Yield10.78%
Average Volume (3M)1.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth4.42%
EPS Growth70.21%
CountryUS
Employees6,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength63
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding597,699,600
10 Day Avg. Volume2,819,179
30 Day Avg. Volume1,965,867
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.52
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.87
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.59Price Target Upside-3.23% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionArdagh Metal Packaging S.A. supplies metal beverage cans in Europe, the United States, and Brazil. Its products are used in various end-use categories, including beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, teas, sparkling waters, and wine. The company serves beverage producers. The company is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.
How the Company Makes MoneyArdagh Metal Packaging generates revenue through the manufacturing and sale of metal beverage containers to a diverse range of clients in the beverage industry. The company's primary revenue streams include long-term supply agreements with major beverage companies and partnerships with regional producers. AMBP benefits from economies of scale and operational efficiency, which allows it to offer competitive pricing. Additional earnings are derived from its focus on sustainability, as environmentally conscious practices attract businesses looking to reduce their carbon footprint. The company's strategic investments in technology and recycling capabilities further enhance its profitability by reducing material costs and improving production efficiency.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ardagh Metal Packaging exhibits moderate revenue growth and operational efficiency. However, consistent negative net income and high leverage reflect financial instability. The company generates strong operating cash flow and improving free cash flow, indicating effective cash management, but it must address its debt and equity challenges to enhance financial health.Income Statement
Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a moderate revenue growth trajectory with a 2% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 12.8% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the company has struggled with profitability, evidenced by negative net income in recent years, resulting in a net profit margin of -0.06% in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderately healthy at 4.1% and 12.8% respectively, highlighting some operational efficiency, though there's room for improvement.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that is not calculable due to negative equity in 2024, indicating financial instability. The return on equity is also not meaningful due to negative equity. The equity ratio is negative, showing that liabilities exceed assets, which poses a risk to financial stability.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
The company's free cash flow grew by 11% from 2023 to 2024, demonstrating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not meaningful due to negative net income, but operating cash flow remains strong at $450 million. The free cash flow to net income ratio is similarly skewed by negative net income, but positive free cash flow suggests adequate cash management.70
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.69B | 4.05B | 3.45B | Gross Profit |
| 630.00M | 474.00M | 526.00M | 616.00M | 548.00M | EBIT |
| 202.00M | 76.00M | 375.00M | -21.00M | 210.00M | EBITDA |
| 629.00M | 508.00M | 747.00M | 281.00M | 542.00M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -3.00M | -50.00M | 237.00M | -210.00M | 111.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 602.00M | 434.00M | 550.00M | 460.00M | 254.00M | Total Assets |
| 5.46B | 5.67B | 5.87B | 5.33B | 4.25B | Total Debt |
| 3.90B | 3.73B | 3.59B | 2.89B | 2.83B | Net Debt |
| 3.30B | 3.30B | 3.04B | 2.43B | 2.58B | Total Liabilities |
| 5.60B | 5.56B | 5.41B | 5.04B | 4.21B | Stockholders Equity |
| -142.00M | 100.00M | 455.00M | 286.00M | 48.00M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 263.00M | 237.00M | -391.00M | -229.00M | 66.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 450.00M | 616.00M | 205.00M | 458.00M | 334.00M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -179.00M | -378.00M | -595.00M | -691.00M | -268.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -81.00M | -348.00M | 499.00M | 454.00M | -98.00M |
Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis
Positive
3.71
Price Trends
2.91
Positive
2.85
Positive
3.12
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Negative
72.23
Negative
93.10
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.02, above the 50-day MA of 2.91, and above the 200-day MA of 3.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.23 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBP.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $5.64B | 20.43 | 14.25% | 1.49% | -2.23% | -13.56% | |
73 Outperform | $11.24B | 20.65 | 21.30% | 1.05% | 0.87% | 34.41% | |
65 Neutral | $4.01B | 14.79 | 45.91% | 2.90% | -1.75% | -21.15% | |
62 Neutral | $2.22B | ― | -69.06% | 10.78% | 4.42% | 70.21% | |
61 Neutral | $6.55B | 11.72 | 3.07% | 4.01% | 2.66% | -21.27% | |
56 Neutral | $20.81B | 16.48 | 20.60% | 5.49% | -3.54% | 25.25% | |
48 Neutral | $14.46B | ― | 8.80% | 1.54% | -15.64% | -186.66% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
3.71
0.19
5.40%
BALL
Ball
51.22
-15.89
-23.68%
CCK
Crown Holdings
96.11
14.69
18.04%
SEE
Sealed Air
27.31
-6.81
-19.96%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
52.71
8.00
17.89%
AMCR
Amcor
9.08
-0.32
-3.40%
Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 34.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong start to the fiscal year with significant growth in key metrics and positive momentum across regions, leading to an upgraded guidance. However, caution remains due to macroeconomic uncertainties and potential tariff impacts.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2025
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP) reported a 6% increase in global shipments and a 16% growth in adjusted EBITDA, both metrics surpassing initial guidance.
Robust Performance in The Americas
Revenue in the Americas rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 16% to $106 million. Shipments in North America grew by 8%.
Positive Outlook and Increased Guidance
AMP has upgraded its full-year guidance, anticipating shipments growth of 3% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $695 million to $720 million.
Improved Financial Position
AMP ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $570 million. The net leverage ratio improved to 5.5 times, down from 6.2 times in Q1 2024.
Strong Performance in Europe
European revenue increased by 10% to $528 million, with adjusted EBITDA up by 14% to $49 million, driven by volume growth and cost recovery.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Brazil
Despite outperforming the industry, which grew modestly, AMP remains cautious about Brazil's market due to volatility and entering the winter selling period.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
AMP expressed caution due to the volatile macroeconomic environment, which could impact future performance.
Potential Tariff Impacts
While minimal impact is anticipated, the tariff measures and potential inflationary pressures could affect AMP's business.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported a strong performance with a 6% increase in global shipments and a 16% rise in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year. This growth exceeded initial guidance, driven by higher volumes and improved fixed-cost absorption, particularly in The Americas. In Europe, revenues increased by 10% to $528 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 14% to $49 million. In The Americas, revenue rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA also increasing by 16% to $106 million. North America saw an 8% rise in shipments, influenced by strong demand in nonalcoholic beverages and energy drinks. In Brazil, shipments grew by 4%, outperforming the industry. The company upgraded its full-year guidance, now anticipating a 3% to 4% growth in shipments and adjusted EBITDA between $695 million and $720 million. The second-quarter EBITDA is expected to range between $195 million and $205 million. Despite potential macroeconomic uncertainties, the company's robust start to the year and favorable currency movements support this optimistic outlook.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.