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Ardagh Metal Packaging
(NYSE:AMBP)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(15.06% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is supported by improving operating performance and strong cash generation, plus a clearly positive price trend. It is held back primarily by the highly leveraged/negative-equity balance sheet and a demanding P/E valuation, while the earnings call adds a positive tilt due to upgraded EBITDA guidance but acknowledges near-term volume and cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Improving operating performance
Revenue and margin recovery reflect structural operational improvements: higher top-line, improved EBIT/EBITDA margins and a return to net profit signal the business can generate operating leverage. Sustained margin expansion supports cash flow resilience and long-term ability to fund capex and service obligations.
Negative Factors
High leverage and negative equity
A heavy debt load and negative equity materially constrain financial flexibility and elevate refinancing and downturn risk. Even with improving operations, servicing large debt and principal repayments limits strategic optionality and prolongs the time needed to restore a conservative capital structure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving operating performance
Revenue and margin recovery reflect structural operational improvements: higher top-line, improved EBIT/EBITDA margins and a return to net profit signal the business can generate operating leverage. Sustained margin expansion supports cash flow resilience and long-term ability to fund capex and service obligations.
Read all positive factors
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.83B
Dividend Yield8.46%
Average Volume (3M)2.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)91.3
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth14.53%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees6,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding597,706,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,651,840
30 Day Avg. Volume2,425,860
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.76
Price to Book (P/B)-3.59
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio9.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.15Price Target Upside7.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.08B
Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt bever...
How the Company Makes Money
AMBP primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling metal beverage packaging—principally aluminum beverage cans and can ends—to beverage companies under supply agreements and customer purchase orders. Revenue is generated on a per-unit basis f...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and financial trajectory driven by strong Q2 adjusted EBITDA growth (14%), a notable Europe outperformance (13% revenue growth and 36% EBITDA growth), a guidance upgrade for full-year adjusted EBITDA ($775M–$790M), robust liquidity and substantial energy hedging. These positives were tempered by modest global volume declines (-1%), regional weaknesses—notably North America shipments (-5%) and Brazil shipments (-15%)—and expected second-half headwinds from inflation, partial reversal of metal timing benefits and ongoing market volatility. On balance, the company demonstrated resilience and strategic positioning (capacity expansion, specialty mix >50%, dividend maintained), while acknowledging near-term operational and macro uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong Q2 Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Beat
Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 grew 14% year-over-year to $240 million, exceeding the prior guidance range ($210M–$220M) and beating consensus by roughly $25 million.
Negative Updates
Global Volume Decline
Global volumes declined 1% year-over-year in Q2 and beverage can sales declined 1% versus a prior-year comparable that grew 5%, reflecting a transitional year for volumes.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q2 Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Beat
Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 grew 14% year-over-year to $240 million, exceeding the prior guidance range ($210M–$220M) and beating consensus by roughly $25 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AMP upgraded full‑year adjusted EBITDA to $775–$790 million (Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $240 million, +14% YoY, above prior guidance of $210–$220 million) and guided Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $200–$210 million (prior‑year Q3 $208 million on a constant‑currency basis). Management expects a small full‑year volume decline for AMP in 2026 with a return to growth in 2027 (at least in line with industry), modest global volume growth in H2, Europe volume growth of ~3% for 2026 (Europe Q2 revenue $698 million, +13%/+10% cc; shipments +5%; Europe Q2 adjusted EBITDA $105 million, +36%/+33% cc), North America industry growth of low single digits in 2026 (Americas Q2 revenue just above $1 billion, +21%; Americas Q2 adjusted EBITDA $135 million, +2%), and Brazil expected to broadly track a now‑projected low‑single‑digit industry growth. Financial guidance includes liquidity of $647 million, net leverage 5.2x (net debt / LTM adjusted EBITDA), total CapEx of ~$240 million (up $40 million for upsized UK/Spain investments), cash interest ~$220 million, lease principal repayments ~$215 million, cash tax ~$30 million, a small working‑capital outflow and unchanged full‑year adjusted free cash‑flow expectations; energy hedges cover >85% of 2026, ~80% of 2027 and ~70% of 2028. Management noted second‑half headwinds from a partial reversal of favorable metal‑pricing timing (roughly half of the Q2 beat, with ~one‑third reversing in H2), mid‑single‑digit freight/direct‑material inflation, a modest FX headwind, improved North American metal supply in H2, and declared an unchanged quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share.Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.99B | 5.50B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.69B | 4.05B |
| Gross Profit | 656.00M | 559.00M | 630.00M | 474.00M | 526.00M | 616.00M |
| EBITDA | 744.00M | 676.00M | 629.00M | 508.00M | 743.00M | 281.00M |
| Net Income | 41.00M | 11.00M | -3.00M | -50.00M | 237.00M | -210.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.57B | 5.68B | 5.46B | 5.67B | 5.87B | 5.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 189.00M | 522.00M | 602.00M | 434.00M | 555.00M | 560.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.34B | 4.42B | 3.90B | 3.73B | 3.59B | 2.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.32B | 6.35B | 5.60B | 5.56B | 5.41B | 5.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | -758.00M | -683.00M | -142.00M | 100.00M | 455.00M | 286.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 297.00M | 265.00M | 263.00M | 237.00M | -391.00M | -229.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 495.00M | 449.00M | 450.00M | 616.00M | 205.00M | 458.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -198.00M | -184.00M | -179.00M | -378.00M | -595.00M | -691.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -365.00M | -374.00M | -81.00M | -348.00M | 499.00M | 454.00M |
Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis
Positive
4.78
Price Trends
4.51
Positive
4.22
Positive
4.09
Positive
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
59.99
Neutral
65.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.79, above the 50-day MA of 4.51, and above the 200-day MA of 4.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBP.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.82B | 16.88 | 26.54% | 1.01% | 10.76% | 45.91% | |
71 Outperform | $5.57B | 8.70 | 18.34% | 3.66% | 12.01% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $17.28B | 18.65 | 17.04% | 1.25% | 14.00% | 82.84% | |
69 Neutral | $1.29B | 34.86 | 17.77% | 1.72% | -8.73% | 268.62% | |
63 Neutral | $4.23B | 15.68 | 11.69% | 1.77% | 8.43% | -9.80% | |
62 Neutral | $2.83B | 91.31 | -6.61% | 8.37% | 14.53% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
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1.55
44.37%
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SLGN
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41.71
-3.74
-8.24%
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58.02
14.06
31.99%
Ardagh Metal Packaging Corporate Events
Ardagh Metal Packaging Lifts 2026 Earnings Guidance After Strong Q2
Jul 23, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging reported that for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue rose 18% year on year to $1.713 billion and adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to $240 million, with profit for the period improving to $35 million and adjusted earnings ...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Declares $0.10 Quarterly Interim Dividend
Jul 23, 2026
On July 23, 2026, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced that its board had declared a quarterly interim dividend of $0.10 per ordinary share. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on September 24, 2026 to shareholders of record as of September 10, ...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Files Q2 2026 Interim Results on Form 6-K
Jul 23, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 23, 2026, furnishing its unaudited consolidated interim financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. The filing include...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Shareholders Back All Proposals at 2026 AGM
Jun 4, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. held its 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders at its registered office in Luxembourg, where investors voted on eight proposals relating to 2025 financials, governance, and auditor appointments. A...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Sets June 4, 2026 AGM and Files 2025 Financials
Apr 30, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging has filed a Form 6-K for April 2026 that furnishes proxy materials for its 2026 annual general meeting, along with audited consolidated financial statements and annual accounts for the year ended December 31, 2025. The filin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.