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Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)
NYSE:AMBP
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Ardagh Metal Packaging
(NYSE:AMBP)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(9.49%Upside)
Positive Factors
Earnings
AMBP reported a strong set of 1Q25 results, posting an 8% adjusted EBITDA beat and global shipments coming in approximately 400 basis points higher than consensus.
Financial Guidance
The company raised its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance by about 3% and increased its global shipment outlook to 3-4% from 2-3%.
Management Changes
The appointment of two new directors with extensive experience in dealing with distressed companies suggests potential for improved management and financial outcomes.
Negative Factors
Consumer Demand
Volume estimates remain modestly below guidance in North America, reflective of the risk of re-accelerating inflation leading to reduced consumer demand.
Market Sentiment
Investors may look at the guidance raise with skepticism considering the continued macro/geopolitical uncertainty.
Shareholder Structure
There are concerns for potential beverage can headwinds and the overhang of a struggling controlling shareholder.
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.53B
Dividend Yield9.46%
Average Volume (3M)2.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth4.42%
EPS Growth70.21%
CountryUS
Employees6,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength59
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding597,699,600
10 Day Avg. Volume1,362,287
30 Day Avg. Volume2,163,670
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)6.35
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-7.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.74Price Target Upside-9.00% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionArdagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) is a leading global supplier of sustainable metal beverage cans. The company operates in the packaging sector and is renowned for its production of high-quality aluminum and steel cans for various beverage industries, including soft drinks, beer, and energy drinks. AMBP is committed to innovation and sustainability, offering environmentally friendly solutions to its clients worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyArdagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of metal beverage cans. The company's key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major beverage companies, which provide a stable and recurring income. AMBP benefits from economies of scale, allowing it to produce cans efficiently and cost-effectively. Additionally, strategic partnerships with beverage brands enable AMBP to secure a significant market share and enhance its competitive edge. The company's focus on sustainability and innovation further strengthens its market position, attracting environmentally conscious customers and fostering long-term client relationships.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 53.36%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong start to the fiscal year with significant growth in key metrics and positive momentum across regions, leading to an upgraded guidance. However, caution remains due to macroeconomic uncertainties and potential tariff impacts.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2025
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP) reported a 6% increase in global shipments and a 16% growth in adjusted EBITDA, both metrics surpassing initial guidance.
Robust Performance in The Americas
Revenue in the Americas rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 16% to $106 million. Shipments in North America grew by 8%.
Positive Outlook and Increased Guidance
AMP has upgraded its full-year guidance, anticipating shipments growth of 3% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $695 million to $720 million.
Improved Financial Position
AMP ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $570 million. The net leverage ratio improved to 5.5 times, down from 6.2 times in Q1 2024.
Strong Performance in Europe
European revenue increased by 10% to $528 million, with adjusted EBITDA up by 14% to $49 million, driven by volume growth and cost recovery.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Brazil
Despite outperforming the industry, which grew modestly, AMP remains cautious about Brazil's market due to volatility and entering the winter selling period.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
AMP expressed caution due to the volatile macroeconomic environment, which could impact future performance.
Potential Tariff Impacts
While minimal impact is anticipated, the tariff measures and potential inflationary pressures could affect AMP's business.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported a strong performance with a 6% increase in global shipments and a 16% rise in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year. This growth exceeded initial guidance, driven by higher volumes and improved fixed-cost absorption, particularly in The Americas. In Europe, revenues increased by 10% to $528 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 14% to $49 million. In The Americas, revenue rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA also increasing by 16% to $106 million. North America saw an 8% rise in shipments, influenced by strong demand in nonalcoholic beverages and energy drinks. In Brazil, shipments grew by 4%, outperforming the industry. The company upgraded its full-year guidance, now anticipating a 3% to 4% growth in shipments and adjusted EBITDA between $695 million and $720 million. The second-quarter EBITDA is expected to range between $195 million and $205 million. Despite potential macroeconomic uncertainties, the company's robust start to the year and favorable currency movements support this optimistic outlook.Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ardagh Metal Packaging shows revenue growth and improved operational efficiency but faces profitability challenges. The balance sheet indicates high leverage and negative equity, raising financial stability concerns. Strong cash flow highlights efficient liquidity management.Income Statement
Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a healthy TTM revenue growth rate of 2.59% and a significant improvement in net income from a loss in the previous period to a modest profit. The gross profit margin is consistent, indicating stable cost management, while the EBIT and EBITDA margins have strengthened, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. However, the company faces challenges with profitability, as indicated by the relatively low net profit margin, suggesting room for improvement.68
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet highlights substantial leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity indicating potential financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not favorable due to negative equity, indicating high financial risk. However, the company maintains a considerable asset base which might offer some operational support, but the negative equity ratio suggests significant vulnerability.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Ardagh Metal Packaging's cash flow exhibits positive trends with strong operating cash flow and a substantial free cash flow growth rate of 19.77%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, underscoring efficient cash management relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio could further improve, suggesting potential for enhanced cash generation.72
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 5.04B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.69B | 4.05B | 3.45B | Gross Profit |
| 629.00M | 630.00M | 474.00M | 526.00M | 616.00M | 548.00M | EBIT |
| 239.00M | 202.00M | 76.00M | 375.00M | -21.00M | 210.00M | EBITDA |
| 591.00M | 629.00M | 508.00M | 747.00M | 281.00M | 542.00M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 4.00M | -3.00M | -50.00M | 237.00M | -210.00M | 111.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 177.00M | 602.00M | 434.00M | 550.00M | 460.00M | 254.00M | Total Assets |
| 5.27B | 5.46B | 5.67B | 5.87B | 5.33B | 4.25B | Total Debt |
| 3.95B | 3.90B | 3.73B | 3.59B | 2.89B | 2.83B | Net Debt |
| 3.77B | 3.30B | 3.30B | 3.04B | 2.43B | 2.58B | Total Liabilities |
| 5.50B | 5.60B | 5.56B | 5.41B | 5.04B | 4.21B | Stockholders Equity |
| -230.00M | -142.00M | 100.00M | 455.00M | 286.00M | 48.00M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 315.00M | 263.00M | 237.00M | -391.00M | -229.00M | 66.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 478.00M | 450.00M | 616.00M | 205.00M | 458.00M | 334.00M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -156.00M | -179.00M | -378.00M | -595.00M | -691.00M | -268.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -292.00M | -81.00M | -348.00M | 499.00M | 454.00M | -98.00M |
Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis
Positive
4.11
Price Trends
3.45
Positive
3.05
Positive
3.14
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Positive
67.53
Neutral
82.11
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.92, above the 50-day MA of 3.45, and above the 200-day MA of 3.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBP.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $5.87B | 20.34 | 14.52% | 1.46% | 1.99% | -5.30% | |
73 Outperform | $11.64B | 21.49 | 21.30% | 1.04% | 0.90% | 34.40% | |
71 Outperform | $4.85B | 15.91 | 43.40% | 2.43% | -2.45% | -16.55% | |
68 Neutral | $2.53B | ― | -69.06% | 9.46% | 4.42% | 70.21% | |
65 Neutral | $15.26B | 29.19 | 8.23% | 1.45% | -9.79% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $6.98B | 11.41 | 2.80% | 4.24% | 2.68% | -24.94% | |
60 Neutral | $21.30B | 16.58 | 20.71% | 5.52% | -2.29% | 24.05% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
4.11
0.73
21.60%
BALL
Ball
54.93
-11.28
-17.04%
CCK
Crown Holdings
100.66
21.80
27.64%
SEE
Sealed Air
32.28
-5.21
-13.90%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
54.51
9.87
22.11%
AMCR
Amcor
9.16
-0.40
-4.18%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.