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Ball
(NYSE:BALL)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$69.00
â–²(8.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is primarily driven by solid underlying fundamentals with improving operational performance and upbeat, numeric 2026 guidance, partially offset by weaker cash flow consistency and rising leverage. Technical indicators are a notable drag given bearish momentum and trading below key moving averages, while valuation appears fair with only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High plant utilization / capacity discipline
Sustained high utilization in North America indicates durable demand and limited idle capacity, which supports contract pricing power and margins over the next several quarters. Capacity discipline reduces the need to cut prices to fill lines and preserves long‑term customer negotiation leverage.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and debt levels
An upward trend in leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases interest sensitivity, particularly if cash flow weakens. With guidance implying year‑end net debt/EBITDA around ~2.7x and interest expense near $320M, the balance sheet has less cushion to absorb shocks or fund opportunistic investments without raising costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High plant utilization / capacity discipline
Sustained high utilization in North America indicates durable demand and limited idle capacity, which supports contract pricing power and margins over the next several quarters. Capacity discipline reduces the need to cut prices to fill lines and preserves long‑term customer negotiation leverage.
Read all positive factors
Ball Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue From Contracts with Customer
Tracks income from customer agreements, providing insight into the stability and predictability of revenue streams.
Tracks income from customer agreements, providing insight into the stability and predictability of revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBall (BALL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.39B
Dividend Yield1.23%
Average Volume (3M)2.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.6
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth14.00%
EPS Growth82.84%
CountryUS
Employees16,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.48
Shares Outstanding266,246,520
10 Day Avg. Volume1,780,572
30 Day Avg. Volume2,493,396
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)2.68
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio18.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$69.00Price Target Upside8.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)4.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.50B
Ball Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ball Corporation (BALL) is a packaging manufacturer focused primarily on metal packaging for beverages and household products. The company designs and produces aluminum beverage cans and related ends/closures for global beverage brands, and it als...
How the Company Makes Money
Ball makes money mainly by manufacturing and selling aluminum packaging—especially beverage cans—under multi-year supply relationships with beverage producers and brand owners. Its core revenue stream comes from high-volume sales of aluminum bever...
Ball Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominately positive operational and financial picture: management delivered better‑than‑expected operating performance (10% comparable operating earnings growth) and strong EPS growth (+22% YoY), reinforced by disciplined capital allocation (EVA), a clear shareholder return plan ($800M), and confidence in full‑year objectives (10%+ EPS growth, >$900M free cash flow). Near‑term headwinds exist (Q1 South America softness, $35M start‑up costs, elevated corporate costs, and commodity/energy inflation), but many are described as transitory or managed via pass‑throughs and operating levers. On balance, highlights—both quantitative (EPS, operating earnings, cash flow guidance, EMEA acquisition) and qualitative (operational discipline, contract portfolio, high utilization)—outweigh the manageable lowlights, supporting a constructive outlook for 2026 and the longer term.Positive Updates
Modest Volume Growth
Global ship beverage volumes increased approximately 1% year‑over‑year in Q1 2026, with slightly stronger-than-expected volumes in North America, in-line performance in EMEA, and a recovery in April (enterprise volumes up mid-single digits in April).
Negative Updates
South America Volume Weakness in Q1
South America volumes declined mid‑single digits year‑over‑year in Q1 2026 due to customer timing and inventory positions coming into the quarter, creating near‑term headwinds (though April recovery was strong).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Modest Volume Growth
Global ship beverage volumes increased approximately 1% year‑over‑year in Q1 2026, with slightly stronger-than-expected volumes in North America, in-line performance in EMEA, and a recovery in April (enterprise volumes up mid-single digits in April).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ball’s guidance and Q1 readthrough was clear and numeric: in Q1 global ship volumes were up nearly 1%, comparable operating earnings rose 10% year‑over‑year and comparable diluted EPS was $0.94 (up 22%); North & Central America volumes were low‑single‑digit with segment operating earnings +2.5%, EMEA volumes low‑single‑digit with segment operating earnings +20%, and South America volumes down mid‑single‑digits with flat segment operating earnings. For full‑year 2026 the company expects 10%+ comparable diluted EPS growth, enterprise volume growth roughly 2%–3% (NA 1%–3% at the low end, EMEA above the 3%–5% long‑term range, South America ~4%–6%), 2x operating‑leverage targets in key regions, free cash flow > $900M, a 2026 comparable effective tax rate slightly above 23%, interest expense around $320M, capex roughly in line with GAAP D&A, reported adjusted corporate undistributed costs ≈ $175M, year‑end net debt/EBITDA ~2.7x, at least $600M of share repurchases (total shareholder returns $800M), and about $35M of Millersburg/start‑up costs hitting later this year with full Millersburg ramp in 2027.Ball Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.64B | 13.16B | 11.80B | 12.02B | 15.29B | 13.93B |
| Gross Profit | 2.14B | 1.96B | 1.84B | 1.72B | 1.75B | 2.03B |
| EBITDA | 2.13B | 2.09B | 1.46B | 1.76B | 1.88B | 1.98B |
| Net Income | 937.00M | 912.00M | 4.01B | 707.00M | 719.00M | 878.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.77B | 19.52B | 17.63B | 19.30B | 19.91B | 19.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 730.00M | 1.21B | 893.00M | 695.00M | 548.00M | 563.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.81B | 7.01B | 6.02B | 8.57B | 9.40B | 8.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.15B | 14.10B | 11.70B | 15.47B | 16.38B | 16.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.60B | 5.42B | 5.86B | 3.77B | 3.46B | 3.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 596.00M | 788.00M | -369.00M | 818.00M | -1.37B | 34.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.15B | 1.26B | 115.00M | 1.86B | 283.00M | 1.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -755.00M | -656.00M | 5.00B | -1.05B | -768.00M | -1.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -135.00M | -344.00M | -4.79B | -662.00M | 485.00M | -894.00M |
Ball Technical Analysis
Positive
63.84
Price Trends
59.48
Positive
59.77
Positive
56.97
Positive
Market Momentum
1.07
Positive
64.33
Neutral
67.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BALL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.89, above the 50-day MA of 59.48, and above the 200-day MA of 56.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BALL.
Ball Risk Analysis
Ball disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ball reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ball Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.87B | 16.88 | 26.54% | 1.01% | 10.76% | 45.91% | |
72 Outperform | $4.50B | 4.91 | 33.43% | 2.93% | -24.38% | 43.47% | |
68 Neutral | $22.15B | 31.80 | 14.88% | 2.06% | 10.35% | -23.14% | |
64 Neutral | $4.34B | 15.68 | 15.74% | 1.77% | 8.43% | -9.80% | |
63 Neutral | $17.39B | 18.65 | 17.29% | 1.25% | 14.00% | 82.84% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $20.87B | 31.38 | 5.80% | 5.81% | 64.83% | -48.00% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BALL
Ball
64.90
8.12
14.30%
CCK
Crown Holdings
117.85
20.54
21.11%
GEF
Greif Class A
86.55
25.83
42.55%
PKG
Packaging
245.84
57.41
30.47%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
39.98
-4.93
-10.97%
AMCR
Amcor
44.88
0.62
1.41%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.