Ball (BALL)
NYSE:BALL
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Ball
(NYSE:BALL)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
▲(3.06% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
BALL scores positively on improving operating profitability and constructive 2026 guidance with strong cash-return commitments, but the overall score is held back by historically inconsistent cash conversion/FCF and still-meaningful leverage. Technically the trend is strong, though overbought signals temper the near-term setup, and valuation appears fair with a modest yield.
Positive Factors
Operating Profitability
Sustained expansion to ~11% operating margin in 2025 from ~7% in 2024 points to durable improvements in pricing, mix and cost discipline. Higher structural operating margins support persistent cash generation, bolster resilience against input cost swings, and improve medium-term earnings stability.
Negative Factors
Volatile Cash Conversion
Sharp swings in FCF and operating cash (very weak in 2024, record in 2025) create execution and funding risk. Persistent volatility makes sustaining buybacks, steady deleveraging and predictable reinvestment harder, raising the probability of capital-allocation tradeoffs under adverse cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating Profitability
Sustained expansion to ~11% operating margin in 2025 from ~7% in 2024 points to durable improvements in pricing, mix and cost discipline. Higher structural operating margins support persistent cash generation, bolster resilience against input cost swings, and improve medium-term earnings stability.
Read all positive factors
Ball (BALL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.53B
Dividend Yield1.53%
Average Volume (3M)2.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.9
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth2.87%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees16,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.91
Shares Outstanding266,153,050
10 Day Avg. Volume2,111,751
30 Day Avg. Volume2,053,616
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)2.68
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio18.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$69.40Price Target Upside11.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)3.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.87B
Ball Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ball Corporation supplies aluminum packaging products for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Beverage Packaging, North and Central Am...
How the Company Makes Money
Ball makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling aluminum beverage packaging to customers such as beverage brand owners and bottlers. Its core revenue stream is the sale of aluminum cans (and can ends) produced at its plants, typically unde...
Ball Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue From Contracts with Customer
Tracks income from customer agreements, providing insight into the stability and predictability of revenue streams.
Tracks income from customer agreements, providing insight into the stability and predictability of revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBall Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong financial and operational achievements — record adjusted free cash flow, record comparable diluted EPS, market outperformance in volumes, significant shareholder returns, and major progress on cost savings and profit-per-can gains — while candidly identifying manageable near-term challenges such as Millersburg start-up and tariff-related costs (~$35 million), integration and ramp timing for recent acquisitions, and capacity constraints in North America. Overall, the positives (records, cash generation, buybacks, strong EMEA performance and disciplined capital allocation) substantially outweigh the temporary headwinds, with management providing clear targets and mitigation plans for 2026 and beyond.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted Free Cash Flow
Adjusted free cash flow reached $956 million in 2025, a new company record and a 2.4x increase year-over-year.
Negative Updates
2026 Startup and Tariff Headwinds
Management disclosed approximately $35 million of temporary headwinds in 2026 related to Millersburg plant start-up costs and domesticating ends production (tariff-related), with much of this impact expected in the back half of 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted Free Cash Flow
Adjusted free cash flow reached $956 million in 2025, a new company record and a 2.4x increase year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ball guided to deliver its long‑term algorithm in 2026, targeting 10%+ comparable diluted EPS growth while generating free cash flow greater than $900 million and returning at least $800 million to shareholders (including a minimum $600 million of share repurchases); management expects a full‑year comparable tax rate slightly above 23%, interest expense of about $320 million, capex roughly in line with GAAP depreciation & amortization, and reported adjusted corporate undistributed costs of about $160 million. They forecast year‑end 2026 net debt to comparable EBITDA of ~2.7x (down from 2.8x at year‑end 2025) with a longer‑term goal around 2.5x, will continue repurchasing 4%–6% of shares annually, and plan to absorb roughly $35 million of temporary 2026 costs (Millersburg start‑up and domesticating ends/tariffs). Regionally, they expect North & Central America volumes at the low end of their 1%–3% long‑term range (with Millersburg start‑up costs back‑half weighted), EMEA to grow above the top end of its 3%–5% range and deliver ~2x operating leverage (aided by the Benepack acquisition), and South America to grow at the low end of its 4%–6% range with ~2x operating leverage.Ball Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 13.16B | 11.80B | 12.02B | 15.29B | 13.93B |
| Gross Profit | 1.96B | 1.84B | 1.72B | 1.75B | 2.03B |
| EBITDA | 2.09B | 1.46B | 1.76B | 1.88B | 1.98B |
| Net Income | 912.00M | 4.01B | 707.00M | 719.00M | 878.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 19.52B | 17.63B | 19.30B | 19.91B | 19.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.21B | 893.00M | 695.00M | 548.00M | 563.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.01B | 6.02B | 8.57B | 9.40B | 8.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.10B | 11.70B | 15.47B | 16.38B | 16.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.42B | 5.86B | 3.77B | 3.46B | 3.63B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 788.00M | -369.00M | 818.00M | -1.37B | 34.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.26B | 115.00M | 1.86B | 283.00M | 1.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -656.00M | 5.00B | -1.05B | -768.00M | -1.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -344.00M | -4.79B | -662.00M | 485.00M | -894.00M |
Ball Technical Analysis
Positive
62.10
Price Trends
62.40
Negative
56.92
Positive
54.49
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.57
Negative
55.63
Neutral
68.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BALL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.04, below the 50-day MA of 62.40, and above the 200-day MA of 54.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BALL.
Ball Risk Analysis
Ball disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ball reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Our investments in acquisitions, joint ventures and new developments may include risks that could have an adverse impact on our business. Q4, 2025
Ball Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $12.13B | 16.16 | 25.41% | 1.01% | 2.94% | 893.70% | |
66 Neutral | $16.53B | 15.93 | 16.89% | 1.53% | 2.87% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $3.72B | 5.59 | 2.08% | 3.19% | -17.63% | -80.32% | |
64 Neutral | $18.83B | 24.15 | 16.73% | 2.42% | 7.23% | -3.88% | |
63 Neutral | $4.36B | 14.78 | 13.03% | 1.97% | 11.10% | 6.54% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $19.58B | 27.28 | 6.12% | 6.20% | 28.41% | -35.50% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BALL
Ball
62.10
16.81
37.10%
CCK
Crown Holdings
107.16
26.04
32.10%
GEF
Greif Class A
69.80
20.60
41.87%
PKG
Packaging
211.05
30.05
16.60%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
41.31
-5.46
-11.68%
AMCR
Amcor
42.37
-0.21
-0.48%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.