Ball (BALL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.77B
• Dividend Yield: 1.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: 2.87%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.91
• Shares Outstanding: 267,987,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,797,839
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,135,169
• PEG Ratio: -0.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.39
• 1Y Price Target: $70.10
• Price Target Upside: 5.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.97
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $13.86B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(5.22% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

BALL scores positively on improving operating profitability and constructive 2026 guidance with strong cash-return commitments, but the overall score is held back by historically inconsistent cash conversion/FCF and still-meaningful leverage. Technically the trend is strong, though overbought signals temper the near-term setup, and valuation appears fair with a modest yield.

Positive Factors

Record free cash flow

A record adjusted free cash flow of $956M in 2025 demonstrates the company's improved ability to convert operating performance into discretionary cash. Durable cash generation supports debt reduction targets, sustained buybacks and capex discipline, strengthening financial flexibility over the next several quarters.

Market share and volume growth

Consistent outperformance in shipped volumes indicates durable commercial strength and pricing leverage across regions. Sustained volume gains underpin operating leverage, improving long‑term profit per can and supporting repeatable cash flows and margin resilience over the next 2–6 months and beyond.

Improved balance-sheet resilience

Material deleveraging versus 2022 shows management progress on balance‑sheet repair. Lower leverage increases financial flexibility for refinancing, M&A or continued buybacks while reducing vulnerability to cyclical shocks, making the capital structure more sustainable in the medium term.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash conversion

Historic swings between strong and negative free cash flow indicate earnings quality and working‑capital sensitivity risks. Inconsistent cash conversion complicates planning for debt reduction and shareholder returns, raising execution risk if volumes or input costs weaken over the next several quarters.

Millersburg start‑up & tariff headwinds

Start‑up and tariff-related costs are structural execution items that can depress near‑term margins and require operational work to normalize. These costs and timing uncertainty can delay margin recovery and FCF trends, pressuring available liquidity and near‑term targets until ramps complete.

Benepack integration & NA capacity limits

Acquisition ramp and regional capacity shortages limit near‑term upside from M&A and constrain North American volume growth. Integration and capacity timing risk can mute expected synergies and profit contribution for multiple quarters, adding execution risk to projected earnings and cash flow.

Ball Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ball Corporation supplies aluminum packaging products for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Beverage Packaging, North and Central America; Beverage Packaging, Europe, Middle East and Africa; Beverage Packaging, South America; and Aerospace. The company manufactures and sells aluminum beverage containers to fillers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other beverages. It also develops spacecraft, sensors and instruments, radio frequency systems, and other technologies for the civil, commercial, and national security aerospace markets, as well as offers defense hardware, antenna and video tactical solutions, civil and operational space hardware, and systems engineering services. In addition, the company designs, manufactures, and tests satellites, remote sensors, and ground station control hardware and software; and provides launch vehicle integration and satellite operational services. Further, it offers target identification, warning, and attitude control systems and components; cryogenic systems and associated sensor cooling devices; star trackers; and fast-steering mirrors to the government agencies or their prime contractors. Additionally, the company manufactures and sells extruded aluminum aerosol containers, recloseable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. Ball Corporation was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Westminster, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Ball Corporation generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of aluminum beverage cans and containers. Its core revenue streams include the sale of aluminum cans to beverage manufacturers, which account for a significant portion of its income. Additionally, the company earns revenue from the sale of food cans and other packaging solutions. Ball also benefits from long-term contracts with major beverage brands, which provide a steady flow of income. The company's operations are further supported by its commitment to sustainability, as it focuses on recycling and sustainable practices, attracting partnerships with environmentally conscious brands. Furthermore, Ball's aerospace segment contributes to its earnings through contracts with government and commercial clients for space-related services and products.

Ball Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is improving (2025 operating margin ~11% vs. ~7% in 2024) and leverage is trending better versus 2022–2023, but earnings quality is uneven (notable 2024 net income spike) and cash conversion/FCF has been volatile despite a stronger 2025.

Income Statement

Revenue has been choppy but is recovering, moving from declines in 2023–2024 to ~4% growth in 2025. Profitability looks solid on an operating basis (2025 operating margin ~11% vs. ~7% in 2024), but net income is volatile (2024 margin ~34% vs. ~7% in 2025 and ~5–6% in 2022–2023), which reduces earnings quality/consistency. Gross margin has stayed in a mid-teens range, suggesting a stable—though not expanding—core margin profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains meaningful: debt is ~1.3x equity in 2025 (improved from ~2.7x in 2022 and ~2.3x in 2023, but still elevated versus a conservative balance sheet). Equity has strengthened relative to the 2022–2023 period, supporting improved balance-sheet resilience. Returns on equity are decent in most years (mid-to-high teens in 2025/2023), but the extremely high 2024 return appears driven by unusually high net income rather than a structurally higher profitability level.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent. 2025 improved materially with positive free cash flow (~$0.8B) and better conversion of profits into free cash flow (about 62% of net income), but 2024 saw very weak operating cash flow (~$0.1B) and negative free cash flow despite high reported net income, highlighting volatility in cash conversion. Prior years also swing between strong cash years (e.g., 2023) and negative free cash flow (e.g., 2022), which adds execution and funding risk in down cycles.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.16B	11.80B	12.02B	15.29B	13.93B
Gross Profit	1.96B	1.84B	1.72B	1.75B	2.03B
EBITDA	2.06B	1.46B	1.76B	1.88B	1.98B
Net Income	912.00M	4.01B	707.00M	719.00M	878.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.52B	17.63B	19.30B	19.91B	19.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.21B	893.00M	695.00M	548.00M	563.00M
Total Debt	7.01B	6.02B	8.57B	9.40B	8.16B
Total Liabilities	14.10B	11.70B	15.47B	16.38B	16.03B
Stockholders Equity	5.42B	5.86B	3.77B	3.46B	3.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	788.00M	-369.00M	818.00M	-1.37B	34.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.26B	115.00M	1.86B	283.00M	1.76B
Investing Cash Flow	-656.00M	5.00B	-1.05B	-768.00M	-1.64B
Financing Cash Flow	-344.00M	-4.79B	-662.00M	485.00M	-894.00M

Ball Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 66.53
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BALL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.92, above the 50-day MA of 57.08, and above the 200-day MA of 53.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 74.17 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BALL.

Ball Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$21.51B	27.85	―	2.42%	7.23%	-3.88%
CCK	71 Outperform	$13.16B	17.88	25.61%	1.01%	2.94%	893.70%
BALL	66 Neutral	$17.77B	20.09	16.17%	1.53%	2.87%	―
GEF	64 Neutral	$3.75B	19.96	2.08%	3.19%	-17.63%	-80.32%
AMCR	64 Neutral	$22.91B	32.42	7.73%	6.20%	28.41%	-35.50%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SLGN	60 Neutral	$5.10B	17.86	13.53%	1.97%	11.10%	6.54%

Ball Corporate Events

Ball Appoints Scott Vail as Chief Operations Officer

On December 10, 2025, Ball Corporation appointed Scott Vail as Chief Supply Chain and Operations Officer. Vail has extensive experience in operations and leadership roles, having previously worked at Reynolds Consumer Products and Anheuser-Busch InBev, and held significant positions at Ball since 2021. His compensation package includes a base salary, bonuses, and stock awards. This appointment is expected to strengthen Ball’s operational capabilities and enhance its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (BALL) stock is a Hold with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ball stock, see the BALL Stock Forecast page.

Ball Corporation Secures $3.5 Billion Credit Facilities

On November 25, 2025, Ball Corporation announced the completion of new senior secured credit facilities totaling $3.5 billion, which include a U.S. dollar revolving facility, a multicurrency revolving facility, and a U.S. dollar term loan facility maturing in 2030. These facilities, managed by Bank of America, aim to refinance existing credit facilities and support general corporate purposes, enhancing Ball’s financial flexibility to pursue strategic initiatives and sustainable growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (BALL) stock is a Buy with a $61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ball stock, see the BALL Stock Forecast page.

Ball Corporation Announces New CEO and Leadership Changes

On November 10, 2025, Ball Corporation announced significant leadership changes with the appointment of Ronald J. Lewis as the new Chief Executive Officer and Stuart A. Taylor II as Chairman of the Board, effective immediately. Daniel W. Fisher stepped down from his roles as CEO and Chairman, with his departure not related to any disagreements with the company. Additionally, Daniel Rabbitt was appointed as Chief Financial Officer, having served as interim CFO since May 2025. These leadership changes are expected to impact Ball’s strategic direction and operational management.

The most recent analyst rating on (BALL) stock is a Hold with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ball stock, see the BALL Stock Forecast page.