Smurfit Westrock (SW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $21.67B
• Dividend Yield: 4.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 100,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 522,186,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,191,620
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,279,353
• PEG Ratio: -0.90
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.22K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.57
• 1Y Price Target: $51.44
• Price Target Upside: 23.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.92
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $31.92B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $47.00 ▲(12.90% Upside)

Smurfit Westrock receives a score of 68, largely driven by strong bullish price momentum and robust free cash flow generation. The company is successfully executing on post-merger synergies and offers a solid dividend yield. However, the upside is constrained by a high P/E valuation and significantly compressed profit margins as the company navigates a challenging demand environment in Europe and North America.

Positive Factors

Strong EBITDA and segment margins

Sustained adjusted EBITDA margins and notably higher segment margins in North America and Latin America indicate durable operating leverage and pricing power in key markets. This supports cash generation capacity and the ability to fund capex and sustainability investments over the medium term.

Material synergy program

A $400M run-rate synergy program represents a structural improvement to the cost base, enhancing long-term competitiveness and margin recovery. Executing plant rationalizations and removing uneconomic volumes should sustainably lower unit costs and improve return on invested capital over multiple years.

Refinancing supporting financial flexibility

Proactive refinancing with senior notes and alignment to a Green Finance Framework structurally reduces near-term refinancing stress and secures funding for capex and sustainability projects. This strengthens liquidity profile and supports strategic investments without immediate equity dilution.

Negative Factors

Compressed profitability and returns

Very low net margins and ROE versus historical levels signal a structural earnings-generation shortfall relative to the company's large asset base. Persistently weak returns reduce reinvestment capacity and shareholder value creation unless margins and asset efficiency recover sustainably.

Uneven cash conversion

Free cash flow remains a small fraction of operating cash and net income, reflecting working-capital swings and high capital intensity. With planned capex of $2.4–2.5B, consistent FCF conversion is critical; failure would strain liquidity and limit ability to fund debt reduction and dividends over time.

Demand weakness and volume decline

Structural softening in core markets—meaningful box volume declines in North America and weak European demand—threaten capacity utilization and revenue growth. Prolonged weak volumes can pressure margins and delay benefits from cost and synergy actions, constraining longer-term recovery.

Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company produces containerboard that it converts into corrugated containers or sells to third parties, as well as produces other types of paper, such as consumer packaging board, sack paper, graphic paper, solid board and graphic board, and other paper-based packaging products, such as consumer packaging, solid board packaging, paper sacks, and other packaging products, including bag-in-box. It also produces linerboard and corrugated medium, paperboard, and non-packaging grades of paper, as well as converted products, such as folding cartons and corrugated boxes, and other products; recycled paper-based packaging products; and packaging machinery. The company primarily serves food and beverage, e-commerce, retail, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

How the Company Makes Money

Smurfit Westrock generates revenue through several key streams, primarily by selling its packaging products to a diverse customer base. The company offers corrugated containers, which are widely used for shipping and retail applications, as well as specialized packaging solutions tailored to specific industries. Additionally, SW benefits from the sale of paper products, which are essential for packaging production. The company also engages in long-term contracts with major clients, ensuring stable revenue over time. Strategic partnerships with businesses across various sectors, including e-commerce giants and food manufacturers, contribute to its earnings by providing consistent demand for its products. Furthermore, SW's commitment to sustainability allows it to tap into the growing market of environmentally conscious consumers, enhancing its appeal and market position.

Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is modest (+3.98% TTM) and cash flow has improved (OCF ~$3.0B, FCF ~$0.8B), but profitability and returns have compressed sharply (net margin ~1.1%, ROE ~2.0%), and free-cash-flow conversion remains uneven.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth is modest (+3.98%), showing steady demand, but profitability has compressed materially versus prior years. TTM gross margin is ~19% and net margin is ~1.1%, down sharply from 2021–2023 levels, indicating higher costs and/or integration/one-time pressures. Operating profitability is still positive (TTM EBITDA margin ~12.1%), but the overall earnings conversion is currently weak, which tempers the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate for the sector, with TTM debt-to-equity around 0.78 and a sizable equity base (~$18.4B) supporting a large asset footprint (~$45.6B). However, returns have fallen significantly (TTM return on equity ~2.0% vs. much higher levels in 2021–2023), suggesting the balance sheet is carrying more capital without currently generating commensurate earnings. Overall solvency looks acceptable, but the reduced profitability lowers balance-sheet quality.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved in TTM, with operating cash flow around $3.0B and free cash flow around $0.8B, a notable rebound from very weak free cash flow in 2024. That said, cash conversion versus earnings is currently thin: TTM free cash flow is only a small fraction of net income, implying working-capital swings and/or elevated capital needs. The trajectory is improving, but consistency and conversion remain key watch items.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	29.10B	20.38B	10.95B	12.62B	10.48B	8.53B
Gross Profit	5.49B	4.05B	2.77B	3.06B	2.35B	2.87B
EBITDA	4.07B	2.74B	1.79B	2.13B	1.57B	1.37B
Net Income	718.09M	307.93M	747.28M	965.65M	704.64M	545.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	45.57B	43.76B	14.05B	12.46B	11.70B	10.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	851.00M	855.00M	1.00B	785.41M	854.32M	891.00M
Total Debt	14.11B	13.60B	4.13B	3.74B	3.75B	3.28B
Total Liabilities	27.11B	26.37B	7.88B	7.47B	7.31B	6.51B
Stockholders Equity	18.43B	17.36B	6.16B	4.98B	4.38B	3.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	801.87M	17.00M	630.00M	503.00M	468.06M	901.55M
Operating Cash Flow	2.95B	1.48B	1.56B	1.43B	1.17B	1.53B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.04B	-2.11B	-931.00M	-1.02B	-1.19B	-612.52M
Financing Cash Flow	-953.80M	607.00M	-479.00M	-431.00M	-16.55M	-78.72M

Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 41.63
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 41.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.04, above the 50-day MA of 38.74, and above the 200-day MA of 41.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SW.

Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$20.02B	25.93	―	2.42%	7.23%	-3.88%
AMCR	73 Outperform	$20.43B	25.86	7.44%	6.20%	28.41%	-35.50%
CCK	73 Outperform	$12.07B	12.95	34.10%	1.01%	2.94%	893.70%
SW	68 Neutral	$21.67B	29.16	4.11%	4.51%	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BALL	59 Neutral	$15.24B	21.28	11.74%	1.53%	2.87%	―
IP	49 Neutral	$21.29B	-6.01	-24.51%	4.69%	33.71%	-517.99%

Smurfit Westrock Corporate Events

Smurfit Westrock Issues Senior Notes for Refinancing

On November 21 and 24, 2025, Smurfit Westrock‘s subsidiaries issued $800 million and €500 million in senior notes, respectively, to refinance existing debts and support general corporate purposes, including sustainable projects. These financial moves are part of Smurfit Westrock’s strategy to optimize its financial structure and align with its Green Finance Framework, potentially enhancing its market position and stakeholder value.