Smurfit Westrock (SW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.79B
• Dividend Yield: 4.46%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 100,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 522,186,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,315,107
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,982,697
• PEG Ratio: -0.90
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.22K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.74
• 1Y Price Target: $52.20
• Price Target Upside: 35.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(0.98% Upside)

Smurfit Westrock's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance with strong profitability and balance sheet health. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, while the valuation indicates potential overvaluation. The earnings call and recent corporate events highlight strategic initiatives and challenges, with a focus on sustainability and synergy savings.

Positive Factors

Sustainability Initiatives

The company's commitment to sustainability through refinancing for green projects aligns with long-term industry trends and enhances market position.

Strong EBITDA Margins

Consistent EBITDA margins indicate effective cost management and operational efficiency, supporting long-term profitability.

Synergy Savings

Achieving synergy savings enhances operational efficiency and cost structure, contributing to improved financial performance.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent Revenue Growth

Inconsistent revenue growth can hinder long-term planning and investment, affecting the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities.

Operational Issues in Latin America

Operational disruptions can lead to financial setbacks and highlight vulnerabilities in regional operations, affecting overall stability.

Weak Demand in Europe

Sustained weak demand in key markets like Europe can limit growth potential and pressure margins, impacting long-term performance.

Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smurfit Westrock (SW) is a leading global provider of paper-based packaging solutions, specializing in the production of containerboard, corrugated containers, and other packaging products. The company operates in various sectors, including e-commerce, food and beverage, and consumer goods, offering innovative and sustainable packaging solutions that cater to diverse customer needs. With a robust manufacturing footprint and a commitment to sustainability, Smurfit Westrock aims to deliver high-quality products while minimizing environmental impact.

How the Company Makes Money

Smurfit Westrock generates revenue primarily through the sale of packaging products, including corrugated containers, boxboard, and paper-based materials. Key revenue streams include direct sales to manufacturers and retailers in various industries, with a significant focus on e-commerce and food sectors. The company benefits from long-term contracts with major customers, ensuring a stable revenue base. Additionally, partnerships with logistics companies enhance their value proposition by providing integrated solutions. The emphasis on sustainability also attracts clients looking for eco-friendly packaging options, further contributing to its earnings.

Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Smurfit Westrock demonstrates a stable financial condition with strengths in profitability and balance sheet health. The company maintains solid margins and a strong equity position, though revenue and free cash flow growth have been inconsistent. There are opportunities for improvement in revenue consistency and cash flow management to enhance overall financial performance.

Income Statement

Smurfit Westrock's income statement reflects a stable gross profit margin of approximately 20% over recent years. The net profit margin has shown improvement, reaching around 3.8% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the EBIT margin has seen fluctuations, with a recent decline. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with occasional declines, although there was a notable increase in 2024. Overall, the company demonstrates profitability with room for improvement in revenue growth consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a solid equity base, with an equity ratio of nearly 40% in 2024, suggesting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.06, signaling manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) has been decent at approximately 4.6% in 2024, though it has decreased compared to prior years. While the company's financial position is stable, there is potential to enhance ROE and further optimize leverage.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a significant drop in free cash flow growth in 2024, indicating increased capital expenditure. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, suggesting efficient cash generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, highlighting the need for careful cash management. Despite challenges, the company's ability to generate operating cash flow remains robust.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	29.10B	20.38B	10.95B	12.62B	10.48B	8.53B
Gross Profit	5.49B	4.05B	2.77B	3.06B	2.35B	2.87B
EBITDA	4.07B	2.74B	1.79B	2.13B	1.57B	1.37B
Net Income	718.09M	307.93M	747.28M	965.65M	704.64M	545.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	45.57B	43.76B	14.05B	12.46B	11.70B	10.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	851.00M	855.00M	1.00B	785.41M	854.32M	891.00M
Total Debt	14.11B	13.60B	4.13B	3.74B	3.75B	3.28B
Total Liabilities	27.11B	26.37B	7.88B	7.47B	7.31B	6.51B
Stockholders Equity	18.43B	17.36B	6.16B	4.98B	4.38B	3.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	801.87M	17.00M	630.00M	503.00M	468.06M	901.55M
Operating Cash Flow	2.95B	1.48B	1.56B	1.43B	1.17B	1.53B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.04B	-2.11B	-931.00M	-1.02B	-1.19B	―
Financing Cash Flow	-953.80M	607.00M	-479.00M	-431.00M	-16.55M	―

Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 38.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 38.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.05, above the 50-day MA of 37.38, and below the 200-day MA of 41.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SW.

Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$18.21B	20.45	19.68%	2.45%	7.30%	15.31%
AMCR	73 Outperform	$19.29B	24.45	7.44%	6.15%	28.41%	-35.50%
CCK	73 Outperform	$12.03B	12.91	34.10%	1.01%	2.94%	893.70%
SW	69 Neutral	$19.79B	26.63	4.11%	4.46%	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BALL	59 Neutral	$13.95B	19.48	11.74%	1.53%	2.87%	―
IP	49 Neutral	$20.43B	-14.79	-4.65%	4.79%	25.91%	-316.17%

Smurfit Westrock Corporate Events

Smurfit Westrock Issues Senior Notes for Refinancing

On November 21 and 24, 2025, Smurfit Westrock‘s subsidiaries issued $800 million and €500 million in senior notes, respectively, to refinance existing debts and support general corporate purposes, including sustainable projects. These financial moves are part of Smurfit Westrock’s strategy to optimize its financial structure and align with its Green Finance Framework, potentially enhancing its market position and stakeholder value.