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Smurfit Westrock (SW)
NYSE:SW

Smurfit Westrock (SW) AI Stock Analysis

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SW

Smurfit Westrock

(NYSE:SW)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
Smurfit Westrock's overall score is driven by its stable financial foundation, demonstrated profitability, and strategic initiatives yielding synergies. However, technical indicators and valuation metrics suggest caution, particularly with bearish market momentum and an elevated P/E ratio. The positive earnings call sentiment provides some optimism, but challenges in demand and input costs pose risks.
Positive Factors
Industry Dynamics
The closure of a competitor's mill improves industry utilization rates, which is a net positive for the company.
Operational Efficiency
SW is improving margins and returns over time on operational improvements and 'value over volume' focus.
Synergies Impact
The positive impact of synergies and operational and commercial improvements is indicated by higher prices.
Negative Factors
Currency Effects
Despite positive operational signs, the valuation price objective has been slightly reduced due to currency translation effects.
Investor Sentiment
The conference call created some confusion around earnings, direction, and priorities, impacting investor sentiment.

Smurfit Westrock (SW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSmurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company produces containerboard that it converts into corrugated containers or sells to third parties, as well as produces other types of paper, such as consumer packaging board, sack paper, graphic paper, solid board and graphic board, and other paper-based packaging products, such as consumer packaging, solid board packaging, paper sacks, and other packaging products, including bag-in-box. It also produces linerboard and corrugated medium, paperboard, and non-packaging grades of paper, as well as converted products, such as folding cartons and corrugated boxes, and other products; recycled paper-based packaging products; and packaging machinery. The company primarily serves food and beverage, e-commerce, retail, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
How the Company Makes MoneySmurfit Westrock generates revenue through the manufacturing and sale of packaging products. Its primary revenue streams include corrugated packaging solutions, paperboard production, and consumer packaging. The company capitalizes on its global reach and scale to serve a broad customer base across various industries. Additionally, Smurfit Westrock benefits from significant partnerships with key players in sectors like retail, food and beverage, and healthcare, which contribute to its consistent revenue growth. The company's commitment to sustainability and innovation in packaging solutions also helps in attracting and retaining clients, thereby boosting its financial performance.

Smurfit Westrock Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 15.37%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with significant improvements in EBITDA and successful synergy realization. However, uncertainties in demand, increased input costs, and necessary capacity rationalizations pose challenges moving forward.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong First Quarter Performance
Net sales of over $7.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.252 billion with a margin of 16.4%, indicating a significant improvement compared to the same period last year.
Progress in Synergy Program
On track to deliver $400 million in synergies by the end of 2025, with $80 million recognized in Q1. Additional opportunities of at least $400 million identified.
North American Margin Improvement
North America operations delivered net sales of $4.7 billion with an adjusted EBITDA of $785 million and a margin of 16.8% due to higher selling prices and reduced SG&A costs.
Cost Management and Investment
Authorized investment in 25 new converting machines to improve efficiency and reliability, with quick-win projects expected to deliver $70 million in additional EBITDA.
Improved Integration Levels
Closure of two mills improves integration levels to 89% for container board and 71% for paper board.
Negative Updates
Economic Downtime Impact
Additional downtime costing approximately $100 million expected in Q2, impacting full-year guidance.
Corrugated Box Volume Decline
Corrugated box volumes in North America were down 4.7% on a same-day basis.
Increased Waste Paper Costs
Unexpected rise in European waste paper costs, increasing to 170-180 Euros, impacting input costs.
Capacity Rationalization
Closure of over 500,000 tons in paper capacity in the U.S., Mexico, and the Netherlands.
Uncertain Demand Outlook
Geopolitical uncertainties and consumer confidence issues affecting future demand expectations.
Company Guidance
During the Smurfit Westrock 2025 Q1 earnings call, the company provided guidance that included a strong performance with net sales of over $7.6 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.252 billion, resulting in a margin of 16.4%. The company remains on track to achieve $400 million in synergies by the end of 2025, with $80 million already realized in Q1. For the full year, Smurfit Westrock anticipates adjusted EBITDA of $5 to $5.2 billion despite planning to incur $100 million in additional downtime costs for Q2. The company also announced its strategy to implement 140 quick-win projects aimed at delivering $50 million in additional EBITDA in North America and 60 projects in Europe and APAC expected to contribute $20 million in 2026 and beyond.

Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Smurfit Westrock demonstrates stable financial performance with strong profitability and balance sheet health. The company shows a solid equity position and manageable leverage, but there are inconsistencies in revenue and free cash flow growth that need addressing.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Smurfit Westrock's income statement reflects a stable gross profit margin of approximately 20% over recent years. The net profit margin has shown improvement, reaching around 3.8% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the EBIT margin has seen fluctuations, with a recent decline. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with occasional declines, although there was a notable increase in 2024. Overall, the company demonstrates profitability with room for improvement in revenue growth consistency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a solid equity base, with an equity ratio of nearly 40% in 2024, suggesting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.06, signaling manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) has been decent at approximately 4.6% in 2024, though it has decreased compared to prior years. While the company's financial position is stable, there is potential to enhance ROE and further optimize leverage.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The cash flow statement shows a significant drop in free cash flow growth in 2024, indicating increased capital expenditure. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, suggesting efficient cash generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, highlighting the need for careful cash management. Despite challenges, the company's ability to generate operating cash flow remains robust.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue28.81B21.11B12.46B12.81B10.11B8.53B
Gross Profit5.78B4.20B4.19B4.06B3.09B2.87B
EBITDA1.64B2.55B2.06B2.23B1.80B1.78B
Net Income380.00M319.00M837.89M1.01B768.78M670.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets44.65B43.76B13.96B12.48B11.71B10.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments797.00M855.00M983.81M777.00M983.90M891.00M
Total Debt14.22B13.60B3.75B3.78B3.75B3.28B
Total Liabilities26.76B26.37B7.80B7.44B7.32B6.51B
Stockholders Equity17.86B17.36B6.16B5.39B4.96B4.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-5.20M17.00M727.35M503.00M420.05M901.55M
Operating Cash Flow2.10B1.48B1.56B1.43B1.12B1.25B
Investing Cash Flow-2.23B-2.11B-931.00M-1.02B-498.00M
Financing Cash Flow3.07B607.00M-479.00M-431.00M-14.00M-64.00M

Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price48.03
Price Trends
50DMA
43.24
Positive
100DMA
44.66
Positive
200DMA
47.48
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.70
Negative
RSI
71.61
Negative
STOCH
97.32
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.58, above the 50-day MA of 43.24, and above the 200-day MA of 47.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.61 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.32 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SW.

Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
PKPKG
75
Outperform
$18.20B21.1820.07%2.47%9.47%19.37%
CCCCK
70
Outperform
$12.56B23.1921.30%0.96%0.90%34.40%
67
Neutral
$22.20B17.2820.71%5.29%-2.29%24.05%
67
Neutral
$7.83B14.5421.42%1.73%-8.26%10.64%
65
Neutral
$27.33B15.36-4.01%3.14%1.00%1.98%
SWSW
63
Neutral
$24.99B39.314.25%3.59%
IPIP
63
Neutral
$26.62B43.003.01%3.67%7.49%123.95%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SW
Smurfit Westrock
48.03
3.20
7.14%
CCK
Crown Holdings
107.90
35.76
49.57%
IP
International Paper Co
50.43
8.79
21.11%
PKG
Packaging
202.29
27.08
15.46%
BERY
Berry Global Group
67.58
13.71
25.45%
AMCR
Amcor
9.63
0.47
5.13%

Smurfit Westrock Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Smurfit Westrock Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results
Positive
May 1, 2025

On May 1, 2025, Smurfit Westrock announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025, reporting net sales of $7,656 million and a net income of $382 million. The company highlighted its strong performance driven by operational and cultural integration across regions, with significant progress in North America. Smurfit Westrock is on track to achieve its synergy program goals and has announced strategic closures and investments to optimize its asset base and support growth. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.4308 per share, payable on June 18, 2025.

Spark’s Take on SW Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, SW is a Neutral.

Smurfit Westrock’s overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. However, technical analysis suggests potential short-term challenges, and valuation metrics imply the stock might be overvalued. The company’s strengths include a stable financial foundation and strategic initiatives yielding synergies, but market momentum and high P/E ratio present cautionary signals.

To see Spark’s full report on SW stock, click here.

Business Operations and Strategy
Smurfit Westrock Announces Major Mill Closures
Negative
Apr 30, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Smurfit Westrock announced the permanent closure of its coated recycled board mill in St. Paul, Minnesota, and the discontinuation of production at its containerboard mill in Forney, Texas. Additionally, the company is consulting with local works councils in Germany to close two converting facilities. These closures will affect about 650 employees and reduce the company’s capacity by over 500,000 tons annually. The company anticipates incurring significant pre-tax charges related to severance and restructuring, with a substantial portion recognized in the second quarter of 2025. The closures are part of Smurfit Westrock’s strategy to align with current and future capacity needs and operational costs, while supporting affected employees through transitions.

Spark’s Take on SW Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, SW is a Neutral.

Smurfit Westrock’s overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. However, technical analysis suggests potential short-term challenges, and valuation metrics imply the stock might be overvalued. The company’s strengths include a stable financial foundation and strategic initiatives yielding synergies, but market momentum and high P/E ratio present cautionary signals.

To see Spark’s full report on SW stock, click here.

Executive/Board Changes
Smurfit Westrock Appoints Carole L. Brown to Board
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025

On March 10, 2025, Smurfit Westrock plc appointed Carole L. Brown as an independent director to its Board, effective March 11, 2025. Ms. Brown, who has a strong background in asset management and municipal finance, will also serve on the Audit and Sustainability Committees. Her appointment increases the Board size to 15 members, but it will revert to 14 after Dmitri L. Stockton steps down following the 2025 Annual General Meeting.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Dmitri Stockton Resigns from Smurfit Westrock Board
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

On February 26, 2025, Dmitri Stockton announced his resignation from the Board of Directors of Smurfit Westrock plc, effective after the 2025 Annual General Meeting on May 2, 2025. His departure is not due to any disagreements with the company, and the Board expressed gratitude for his contributions during the company’s formative period following its merger.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 02, 2025