Smurfit Westrock (SW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.89B
• Dividend Yield: 4.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 100,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 522,186,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,917,451
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,434,149
• PEG Ratio: 0.45
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.29
• 1Y Price Target: $58.30
• Price Target Upside: 27.02% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.58
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $31.69B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $48.00 ▲(4.58% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/12/26

The score is primarily held back by weaker current profitability/returns and mixed cash-conversion quality despite improved cash flow. This is partly offset by constructive technical momentum and a generally positive earnings-call outlook with clear EBITDA/FCF and deleveraging targets, though execution risks (volumes, downtime, energy) remain. Valuation is a modest headwind due to the higher P/E, partially balanced by the dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Smurfit Westrock's sizable operating cash flow and >$1.5B annual adjusted free cash flow indicate durable internal funding to cover maintenance capex, pay dividends and reduce leverage. Reliable cash generation supports strategic investments and capital returns over the medium term if sustained.

Synergy and integration execution

Outperforming synergy targets demonstrates effective post‑merger integration and cost discipline, unlocking structural margin improvement. Realized synergies de‑risk merger economics, improve ROCE, and create a sustainable base for future margin expansion across the larger footprint.

Clear medium-term plan & stronger credit

A detailed 2026–2030 plan plus an investment‑grade upgrade provide a framework for disciplined capital allocation, expected deleveraging and predictable returns. Credible targets align management incentives with long‑term ROCE improvement and support lower funding costs if execution holds.

Negative Factors

Low profitability and ROE

Margins and returns are substantially below prior years, indicating persistent pricing, cost or mix pressure. Low ROE limits reinvestment efficiency and shareholder return capacity, making margin recovery essential for sustainable credit metrics and investment returns over the medium term.

Weak cash conversion

Low cash conversion implies high reinvestment, working capital volatility or integration outflows, constraining ability to rapidly deleverage or fund growth organically. Persistently weak conversion reduces flexibility to execute buybacks or accelerate debt paydown without sacrificing capex plans.

North America volume decline & restructuring costs

Significant lost NA volume, proactive contract shedding and recurring mill downtime indicate structural demand and utilization headwinds. These reduce fixed‑cost absorption and can persistently depress margins and cash flow until volumes or higher‑value mix recover.

Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company produces containerboard that it converts into corrugated containers or sells to third parties, as well as produces other types of paper, such as consumer packaging board, sack paper, graphic paper, solid board and graphic board, and other paper-based packaging products, such as consumer packaging, solid board packaging, paper sacks, and other packaging products, including bag-in-box. It also produces linerboard and corrugated medium, paperboard, and non-packaging grades of paper, as well as converted products, such as folding cartons and corrugated boxes, and other products; recycled paper-based packaging products; and packaging machinery. The company primarily serves food and beverage, e-commerce, retail, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

How the Company Makes Money

Smurfit Westrock generates revenue primarily through the sale of packaging products, including corrugated containers, boxboard, and paper-based materials. Key revenue streams include direct sales to manufacturers and retailers in various industries, with a significant focus on e-commerce and food sectors. The company benefits from long-term contracts with major customers, ensuring a stable revenue base. Additionally, partnerships with logistics companies enhance their value proposition by providing integrated solutions. The emphasis on sustainability also attracts clients looking for eco-friendly packaging options, further contributing to its earnings.

Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows strong TTM revenue growth but materially weaker profitability versus 2021–2023 (net margin ~2.4%, EBIT margin ~5.8%). Balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.77) but ROE is low (~4.2%), limiting flexibility. Cash flow rebounded (OCF ~$3.39B; FCF ~$1.2B) yet cash conversion is weak (~27% of net income flowing to FCF), implying reinvestment/working-capital pressure.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is $29.4B with solid growth (up ~104% vs 2024), but profitability is modest: net margin is ~2.4% and EBIT margin is ~5.8%. Margins and earnings are materially below 2021–2023 levels (when net margins were ~6–8% and EBIT margins ~10–13%), suggesting weaker pricing/cost mix and/or integration pressure despite the much larger revenue base.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate based on debt-to-equity of ~0.77 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), broadly in line with recent years. The key weakness is low profitability on the equity base (return on equity ~4.2% TTM vs double-digit levels in 2021–2023), which reduces balance-sheet flexibility even if headline leverage is not extreme.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow rose to ~$3.39B and free cash flow to ~$1.2B (strong growth vs 2024). However, cash conversion remains a concern—only ~27% of net income is showing up as free cash flow in TTM, and cash flow coverage metrics are weaker than 2020–2023, pointing to higher reinvestment needs and/or working-capital volatility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.27B	20.38B	10.95B	12.62B	10.48B
Gross Profit	5.49B	4.05B	2.77B	3.06B	2.35B
EBITDA	4.20B	2.74B	1.79B	2.13B	1.57B
Net Income	659.72M	307.93M	747.28M	965.65M	704.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	45.16B	43.76B	14.05B	12.46B	11.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	892.00M	855.00M	1.00B	785.41M	854.32M
Total Debt	346.00M	13.60B	4.13B	3.74B	3.75B
Total Liabilities	26.80B	26.37B	7.88B	7.47B	7.31B
Stockholders Equity	15.60B	17.36B	6.16B	4.98B	4.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.02B	17.00M	630.00M	503.00M	468.06M
Operating Cash Flow	2.89B	1.48B	1.56B	1.43B	1.17B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.82B	-2.11B	-931.00M	-1.02B	-1.19B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.10B	607.00M	-479.00M	-431.00M	-16.55M

Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 45.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.73, above the 50-day MA of 42.21, and above the 200-day MA of 41.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SW.

Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$21.51B	27.85	―	2.42%	7.23%	-3.88%
CCK	71 Outperform	$13.36B	18.04	25.61%	1.01%	2.94%	893.70%
SW	68 Neutral	$23.89B	34.54	3.92%	4.21%	―	―
BALL	66 Neutral	$17.77B	20.09	16.17%	1.53%	2.87%	―
AMCR	64 Neutral	$23.19B	33.07	7.73%	6.20%	28.41%	-35.50%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
IP	49 Neutral	$23.24B	-6.56	-24.51%	4.69%	33.71%	-517.99%

Smurfit Westrock Corporate Events

Smurfit Westrock Issues Senior Notes for Refinancing

On November 21 and 24, 2025, Smurfit Westrock‘s subsidiaries issued $800 million and €500 million in senior notes, respectively, to refinance existing debts and support general corporate purposes, including sustainable projects. These financial moves are part of Smurfit Westrock’s strategy to optimize its financial structure and align with its Green Finance Framework, potentially enhancing its market position and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (SW) stock is a Buy with a $51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Smurfit Westrock stock, see the SW Stock Forecast page.