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Smurfit Westrock
(NYSE:SW)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$51.00
â–²(5.02% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong revenue growth and operating cash flow, but materially compressed margins, lower ROE, and volatile free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with the stock in a clear uptrend versus key moving averages. Valuation is a notable headwind due to a very high P/E despite a solid dividend yield. Earnings call takeaways are moderately positive on EBITDA guidance and operational progress, but meaningful freight/energy headwinds and pricing lag temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Cash Flow Growth
Sustained revenue expansion with consistently positive operating cash flow provides durable scale and internal funding to support capex, dividends and debt service. This steady top-line and OCF base underpins strategic flexibility even as margins cyclically vary.
Negative Factors
Compressed Profitability / Low ROE
Material margin compression and diminished ROE reduce the firm's ability to convert sales into sustainable profits. Persistently low returns weaken reinvestment capacity and make outcomes more sensitive to cost shocks, limiting long‑term returns on shareholders' equity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Cash Flow Growth
Sustained revenue expansion with consistently positive operating cash flow provides durable scale and internal funding to support capex, dividends and debt service. This steady top-line and OCF base underpins strategic flexibility even as margins cyclically vary.
Read all positive factors
Smurfit Westrock Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Geography
Reports operating profitability by region after removing one‑off items, highlighting where margins are strongest or under pressure. Useful for spotting which markets fund corporate returns, how regional costs or pricing affect cash generation, and where management should focus efficiency efforts.
Reports operating profitability by region after removing one‑off items, highlighting where margins are strongest or under pressure. Useful for spotting which markets fund corporate returns, how regional costs or pricing affect cash generation, and where management should focus efficiency efforts.
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The Fly
The FlySmurfit Westrock (SW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.03B
Dividend Yield3.84%
Average Volume (3M)5.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)58.1
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth1.69%
EPS Growth42.09%
CountryUS
Employees97,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.95
Shares Outstanding524,464,050
10 Day Avg. Volume4,653,990
30 Day Avg. Volume5,613,846
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.43
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio16.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.38Price Target Upside18.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$32.16B
Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and intern...
How the Company Makes Money
Smurfit Westrock primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling paper-based packaging and related materials to business customers. A core revenue stream comes from corrugated packaging: the company produces containerboard (linerboard and mediu...
Smurfit Westrock Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear operational and commercial progress (strong Q2 adjusted EBITDA and margin, sold-out mill systems, quality improvements, reduced number of loss-making converting sites, healthy pipelines and disciplined capital allocation) against significant, largely external, near-term cost pressures (notably freight and energy headwinds, timing lag to realize pricing, and regional volume softness in North America). Management expressed confidence in passing through costs and driving recovery into late 2026 and 2027 while maintaining a returns-focused investment stance.Positive Updates
Strong adjusted EBITDA and margin
Reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.14 billion for Q2 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.2% demonstrating solid profitability in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Material freight cost headwind
Freight costs became a significant headwind versus prior outlooks; management estimates freight represents roughly a $300 million year-on-year headwind driven by higher fuel, shipping rates and domestic transport constraints.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong adjusted EBITDA and margin
Reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.14 billion for Q2 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.2% demonstrating solid profitability in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated full‑year guidance to adjusted EBITDA of $4.9–$5.1 billion (Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $1.14 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.2%) while flagging roughly a $300 million year‑over‑year freight headwind and an energy headwind on the order of ~$220 million (partially offset by ~€100 million of lower economic downtime); they reiterated large free‑cash‑flow potential and an average annual CapEx target of ≈$2.5 billion (this year’s CapEx expected $2.4–$2.5 billion, average project ≈$4 million, no single large project in any one year), declared a quarterly dividend of $0.4523 per share, and affirmed investment‑grade ratings (Moody’s Baa2 positive; S&P BBB stable; Fitch BBB+ stable). Pricing actions announced include a $100/tonne containerboard move (not assumed in 2026 results) and an €80/tonne recycle increase in Europe; operational metrics noted mills generally full, North America corrugated volumes down ~4.8% (same‑day) / ~4.5% absolute, EMEA/APAC corrugated volumes up ~1.9% absolute / ~1.5% same‑day, and a >25% year‑to‑date improvement in the quality metric.Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 30.31B | 31.18B | 20.38B | 10.95B | 12.62B | 10.48B |
| Gross Profit | 5.45B | 6.04B | 4.05B | 2.77B | 3.06B | 2.35B |
| EBITDA | 3.49B | 4.35B | 2.74B | 1.79B | 2.13B | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 487.47M | 699.00M | 307.93M | 747.28M | 965.65M | 704.64M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 45.20B | 53.04B | 43.76B | 14.05B | 12.46B | 11.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 677.00M | 1.05B | 855.00M | 1.00B | 785.41M | 854.32M |
| Total Debt | 931.00M | 16.18B | 13.60B | 4.13B | 3.74B | 3.75B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.14B | 31.48B | 26.37B | 7.88B | 7.47B | 7.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.04B | 21.53B | 17.36B | 6.16B | 4.98B | 4.38B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.01B | 1.20B | 17.00M | 630.00M | 503.00M | 468.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.30B | 3.39B | 1.48B | 1.56B | 1.43B | 1.17B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.22B | -2.14B | -2.11B | -931.00M | -1.02B | -1.19B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.20B | -1.30B | 607.00M | -479.00M | -431.00M | -16.55M |
Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis
Positive
48.56
Price Trends
43.70
Positive
41.68
Positive
40.72
Positive
Market Momentum
1.14
Negative
51.74
Neutral
50.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.21, above the 50-day MA of 43.70, and above the 200-day MA of 40.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SW.
Smurfit Westrock Risk Analysis
Smurfit Westrock disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Smurfit Westrock reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.82B | 16.88 | 26.54% | 1.01% | 10.76% | 45.91% | |
68 Neutral | $21.90B | 31.80 | 14.88% | 2.06% | 10.35% | -23.14% | |
63 Neutral | $17.28B | 18.65 | 17.29% | 1.25% | 14.00% | 82.84% | |
62 Neutral | $24.03B | 58.06 | 2.08% | 3.64% | 1.69% | 42.09% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $20.75B | 31.38 | 5.80% | 5.81% | 64.83% | -48.00% | |
58 Neutral | $21.62B | -6.28 | -22.39% | 4.39% | 10.34% | -7163.00% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SW
Smurfit Westrock
45.97
3.74
8.86%
BALL
Ball
64.90
8.12
14.30%
CCK
Crown Holdings
117.85
20.54
21.11%
IP
International Paper Co
40.83
-3.13
-7.11%
PKG
Packaging
245.84
57.41
30.47%
AMCR
Amcor
44.88
0.62
1.41%
Smurfit Westrock Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Smurfit Westrock Posts Profitable Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Smurfit Westrock reported second-quarter 2026 results, posting net sales of $8.03 billion, net income of $88 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.14 billion, as net income swung from a loss a year earlier despite higher freight a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.