Smurfit Westrock (SW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.76B
• Dividend Yield: 3.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.37M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 66.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 100,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 522,125,060
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,453,445
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,371,501
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.72
• 1Y Price Target: $54.72
• Price Target Upside: 28.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Smurfit Westrock's overall score is driven by its stable financial foundation, demonstrated profitability, and strategic initiatives yielding synergies. However, technical indicators and valuation metrics suggest caution, particularly with bearish market momentum and an elevated P/E ratio. The positive earnings call sentiment provides some optimism, but challenges in demand and input costs pose risks.

Positive Factors

Operational Improvements

Smurfit Westrock is executing at a very high level with a compelling medium-term upside story.

Synergies

The integration work to achieve its deal-related $400MM in run-rate cost synergies is now essentially complete.

Negative Factors

Investor Sentiment

The conference call created some confusion around earnings, direction, and priorities, impacting investor sentiment.

Valuation

Despite positive operational signs, the valuation price objective has been slightly reduced due to currency translation effects.

Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company produces containerboard that it converts into corrugated containers or sells to third parties, as well as produces other types of paper, such as consumer packaging board, sack paper, graphic paper, solid board and graphic board, and other paper-based packaging products, such as consumer packaging, solid board packaging, paper sacks, and other packaging products, including bag-in-box. It also produces linerboard and corrugated medium, paperboard, and non-packaging grades of paper, as well as converted products, such as folding cartons and corrugated boxes, and other products; recycled paper-based packaging products; and packaging machinery. The company primarily serves food and beverage, e-commerce, retail, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

How the Company Makes Money

Smurfit Westrock generates revenue through the manufacturing and sale of packaging products. Its primary revenue streams include corrugated packaging solutions, paperboard production, and consumer packaging. The company capitalizes on its global reach and scale to serve a broad customer base across various industries. Additionally, Smurfit Westrock benefits from significant partnerships with key players in sectors like retail, food and beverage, and healthcare, which contribute to its consistent revenue growth. The company's commitment to sustainability and innovation in packaging solutions also helps in attracting and retaining clients, thereby boosting its financial performance.

Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Smurfit Westrock demonstrates stable financial performance with strong profitability and balance sheet health. The company shows a solid equity position and manageable leverage, but there are inconsistencies in revenue and free cash flow growth that need addressing.

Income Statement

Smurfit Westrock's income statement reflects a stable gross profit margin of approximately 20% over recent years. The net profit margin has shown improvement, reaching around 3.8% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the EBIT margin has seen fluctuations, with a recent decline. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with occasional declines, although there was a notable increase in 2024. Overall, the company demonstrates profitability with room for improvement in revenue growth consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a solid equity base, with an equity ratio of nearly 40% in 2024, suggesting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.06, signaling manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) has been decent at approximately 4.6% in 2024, though it has decreased compared to prior years. While the company's financial position is stable, there is potential to enhance ROE and further optimize leverage.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a significant drop in free cash flow growth in 2024, indicating increased capital expenditure. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, suggesting efficient cash generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, highlighting the need for careful cash management. Despite challenges, the company's ability to generate operating cash flow remains robust.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	30.82B	20.38B	12.46B	12.81B	10.11B	8.53B
Gross Profit	5.91B	4.05B	4.19B	4.06B	3.09B	2.87B
EBITDA	3.72B	2.46B	2.06B	2.23B	1.80B	1.78B
Net Income	365.21M	308.06M	837.89M	1.01B	768.78M	670.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	45.75B	43.76B	13.96B	12.48B	11.71B	10.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	778.00M	855.00M	983.81M	777.00M	983.90M	891.00M
Total Debt	1.03B	13.60B	3.75B	3.78B	3.75B	3.28B
Total Liabilities	27.42B	26.37B	7.80B	7.44B	7.32B	6.51B
Stockholders Equity	18.30B	17.36B	6.16B	5.39B	4.96B	4.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	82.00M	17.00M	727.35M	503.00M	420.05M	901.55M
Operating Cash Flow	2.13B	1.48B	1.56B	1.43B	1.12B	1.25B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.72B	-2.11B	-931.00M	-1.02B	―	-498.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.96B	607.00M	-479.00M	-431.00M	-14.00M	-64.00M

Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 42.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.91, below the 50-day MA of 44.43, and below the 200-day MA of 47.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SW.

Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$17.68B	19.61	20.51%	2.59%	8.98%	25.81%
AMCR	72 Outperform	$20.19B	27.31	6.54%	5.79%	-2.29%	24.05%
CCK	72 Outperform	$11.76B	21.22	20.64%	1.02%	2.07%	32.37%
BERY	67 Neutral	$7.83B	14.54	21.42%	1.73%	-8.26%	10.64%
SW	63 Neutral	$22.76B	66.13	2.91%	3.65%	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.23B	11.51	-5.97%	3.09%	1.47%	-15.79%
IP	56 Neutral	$25.22B	46.41	-0.20%	3.97%	18.13%	-106.71%

Smurfit Westrock Corporate Events

Smurfit Westrock Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 1, 2025, Smurfit Westrock announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025, reporting net sales of $7,656 million and a net income of $382 million. The company highlighted its strong performance driven by operational and cultural integration across regions, with significant progress in North America. Smurfit Westrock is on track to achieve its synergy program goals and has announced strategic closures and investments to optimize its asset base and support growth. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.4308 per share, payable on June 18, 2025.

Spark’s Take on SW Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, SW is a Neutral.

Smurfit Westrock’s overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. However, technical analysis suggests potential short-term challenges, and valuation metrics imply the stock might be overvalued. The company’s strengths include a stable financial foundation and strategic initiatives yielding synergies, but market momentum and high P/E ratio present cautionary signals.

To see Spark’s full report on SW stock, click here.

Smurfit Westrock Announces Major Mill Closures

On April 30, 2025, Smurfit Westrock announced the permanent closure of its coated recycled board mill in St. Paul, Minnesota, and the discontinuation of production at its containerboard mill in Forney, Texas. Additionally, the company is consulting with local works councils in Germany to close two converting facilities. These closures will affect about 650 employees and reduce the company’s capacity by over 500,000 tons annually. The company anticipates incurring significant pre-tax charges related to severance and restructuring, with a substantial portion recognized in the second quarter of 2025. The closures are part of Smurfit Westrock’s strategy to align with current and future capacity needs and operational costs, while supporting affected employees through transitions.

Spark’s Take on SW Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, SW is a Neutral.

Smurfit Westrock’s overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. However, technical analysis suggests potential short-term challenges, and valuation metrics imply the stock might be overvalued. The company’s strengths include a stable financial foundation and strategic initiatives yielding synergies, but market momentum and high P/E ratio present cautionary signals.

To see Spark’s full report on SW stock, click here.

Smurfit Westrock Appoints Carole L. Brown to Board

On March 10, 2025, Smurfit Westrock plc appointed Carole L. Brown as an independent director to its Board, effective March 11, 2025. Ms. Brown, who has a strong background in asset management and municipal finance, will also serve on the Audit and Sustainability Committees. Her appointment increases the Board size to 15 members, but it will revert to 14 after Dmitri L. Stockton steps down following the 2025 Annual General Meeting.

Dmitri Stockton Resigns from Smurfit Westrock Board

On February 26, 2025, Dmitri Stockton announced his resignation from the Board of Directors of Smurfit Westrock plc, effective after the 2025 Annual General Meeting on May 2, 2025. His departure is not due to any disagreements with the company, and the Board expressed gratitude for his contributions during the company’s formative period following its merger.