Smurfit Westrock (SW)
NYSE:SW
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Smurfit Westrock
(NYSE:SW)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(8.80% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is primarily held back by weaker current profitability/returns and mixed cash-conversion quality despite improved cash flow. This is partly offset by constructive technical momentum and a generally positive earnings-call outlook with clear EBITDA/FCF and deleveraging targets, though execution risks (volumes, downtime, energy) remain. Valuation is a modest headwind due to the higher P/E, partially balanced by the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Integrated scale & service offering
Vertical integration (mills plus converting plus design/engineering) is a durable competitive advantage: it lowers input exposure, captures more of product economics, and enables supply-chain and design-led value selling. That structural capability supports margins and customer stickiness over multi-year cycles.
Negative Factors
Low profitability and ROE
Margins and return on equity remain depressed relative to historical levels, limiting internal capital generation and the company’s ability to fund growth or pay higher shareholder distributions without structural margin improvement. Sustained low profitability raises sensitivity to input or volume shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated scale & service offering
Vertical integration (mills plus converting plus design/engineering) is a durable competitive advantage: it lowers input exposure, captures more of product economics, and enables supply-chain and design-led value selling. That structural capability supports margins and customer stickiness over multi-year cycles.
Read all positive factors
Smurfit Westrock (SW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.10B
Dividend Yield4.21%
Average Volume (3M)5.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.5
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees100,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding524,253,700
10 Day Avg. Volume4,952,103
30 Day Avg. Volume5,808,504
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.45
Price to Book (P/B)0.92
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio16.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.57
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$55.43Price Target Upside31.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$31.66B
Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company produces containerboard that it ...
How the Company Makes Money
Smurfit Westrock makes money primarily by producing and selling paper-based packaging products and related services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Corrugated packaging and converting: selling corrugated boxes, sheets, and other converted packag...
Smurfit Westrock Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive outlook: management reported record adjusted EBITDA and strong cash generation, achieved and exceeded synergy targets, strengthened the balance sheet (Fitch upgrade), and presented a detailed medium-term plan with clear targets (USD 7B EBITDA by 2030, USD 14B FCF 2026–2030). At the same time, meaningful near-term operational challenges remain — notably North American volume declines, mill downtime costs (~USD 85M in Q4; USD 220M for the year), plant closures (La Tuque), and energy headwinds — all of which add execution risk. Overall, the positives (record earnings, cash flow, integration progress, credible 2030 plan, capital return commitments and credit upgrade) outweigh the lowlights, but success depends on execution on volume recovery, value-selling in North America, and managing cost/energy pressures.Positive Updates
Record Annual Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Quarterly Result
Smurfit Westrock reported a record adjusted EBITDA of USD 4.939 billion for FY2025 and USD 1.172 billion for Q4. The company stated this is the largest outturn by any packaging company globally.
Negative Updates
North American Volume Decline and Loss-Making Contracts
A sharp fall in North American volumes was reported. The company identified ~1.2 billion square meters of lost business in NA (about half already replaced), and has deliberately shed low-margin/loss-making contracts to improve profitability.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Quarterly Result
Smurfit Westrock reported a record adjusted EBITDA of USD 4.939 billion for FY2025 and USD 1.172 billion for Q4. The company stated this is the largest outturn by any packaging company globally.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.1–$1.2 billion and full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $5.0–$5.3 billion, and laid out a medium‑term plan targeting $7.0 billion adjusted EBITDA by 2030 (≈7% CAGR) with group margin expansion to ~19% (≈+300 bps from ~16%), ~$14 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2026–2030 (adjusted FCF CAGR ~17%), and ROCE improvement of ~700 bps to ~15%; the plan contemplates $13 billion total CapEx (≈$2.4–2.8B/yr) — $9B maintenance and $4B growth — while returning roughly $5.0B in dividends over the period and commencing buybacks from 2027, targeting net leverage <2.0x (vs. 2.6x at year‑end, net debt ≈$13B) and retaining investment‑grade (Fitch BBB+), with region targets of North America rising from ~$3.0B to ~$4.2B EBITDA (20%+ margin), EMEA to ~$2.1B (~16%+ margin) and LatAm to ~$800M (≈28% margin) by 2030; near‑term assumptions include no baked‑in North American paper price increases, market growth assumptions (NA 1.6%, EMEA 1.7%, LatAm 2%), ~$40–50M incremental synergies in 2026, a ~$60–70M energy headwind and ~$50M fiber tailwind, and expected Q4 downtime cost of ~$85M (full‑year downtime ≈$220M).Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 28.27B | 20.38B | 10.95B | 12.62B | 10.48B |
| Gross Profit | 5.49B | 4.05B | 2.77B | 3.06B | 2.35B |
| EBITDA | 3.91B | 2.74B | 1.79B | 2.13B | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 659.72M | 307.93M | 747.28M | 965.65M | 704.64M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 45.16B | 43.76B | 14.05B | 12.46B | 11.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 892.00M | 855.00M | 1.00B | 785.41M | 854.32M |
| Total Debt | 12.65B | 13.60B | 4.13B | 3.74B | 3.75B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.80B | 26.37B | 7.88B | 7.47B | 7.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.33B | 17.36B | 6.16B | 4.98B | 4.38B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.02B | 17.00M | 630.00M | 503.00M | 468.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.89B | 1.48B | 1.56B | 1.43B | 1.17B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.82B | -2.11B | -931.00M | -1.02B | -1.19B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.10B | 607.00M | -479.00M | -431.00M | -16.55M |
Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis
Positive
42.28
Price Trends
43.09
Negative
40.43
Positive
41.47
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.73
Negative
54.83
Neutral
66.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.56, below the 50-day MA of 43.09, and above the 200-day MA of 41.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SW.
Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $22.10B | 25.47 | 3.83% | 4.21% | ― | ― | |
67 Neutral | $12.13B | 16.16 | 25.41% | 1.01% | 2.94% | 893.70% | |
66 Neutral | $16.53B | 15.93 | 16.89% | 1.53% | 2.87% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $18.83B | 24.15 | 16.73% | 2.42% | 7.23% | -3.88% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $19.58B | 27.28 | 6.12% | 6.20% | 28.41% | -35.50% | |
49 Neutral | $19.63B | ― | -20.43% | 4.69% | 33.71% | -517.99% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SW
Smurfit Westrock
42.14
3.46
8.95%
BALL
Ball
62.87
17.58
38.80%
CCK
Crown Holdings
107.84
26.72
32.94%
IP
International Paper Co
36.78
-7.54
-17.02%
PKG
Packaging
208.12
27.12
14.98%
AMCR
Amcor
41.76
-0.82
-1.91%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.