Smurfit Westrock (SW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $21.23B
• Dividend Yield: 3.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.63M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 49.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 100,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 92
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 521,976,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,279,844
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,634,489
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.09
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 7.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $55.11
• Price Target Upside: 36.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

Smurfit Westrock's overall score is driven by its stable financial foundation, demonstrated profitability, and strategic initiatives yielding synergies. However, technical indicators and valuation metrics suggest caution, particularly with bearish market momentum and an elevated P/E ratio. The positive earnings call sentiment provides some optimism, but challenges in demand and input costs pose risks.

Positive Factors

Market Pricing

Expected tailwinds from US corrugated box pricing and European testliner price increases are anticipated to offset some price erosion in EU box prices.

Synergies and Optimization

Management reiterates its confidence in capturing identified $400m in synergies by year-end 2025.

Negative Factors

Cost Headwinds

The shares fell further, to -7%, by the end of the call due to management commentary indicating higher maintenance cost headwinds in Q2 and Q3.

Investor Sentiment

The conference call created some confusion around earnings, direction, and priorities, impacting investor sentiment.

Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smurfit Westrock (SW) is a leading global packaging company formed through the merger of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock. The company operates in the packaging and container sectors, offering a range of products including corrugated packaging, paperboard, and consumer packaging solutions. SW serves a diverse set of industries such as food and beverage, e-commerce, and healthcare, providing sustainable and innovative packaging solutions that meet the needs of its customers worldwide.

How the Company Makes Money

Smurfit Westrock generates revenue through the manufacturing and sale of packaging products. Its primary revenue streams include corrugated packaging solutions, paperboard production, and consumer packaging. The company capitalizes on its global reach and scale to serve a broad customer base across various industries. Additionally, Smurfit Westrock benefits from significant partnerships with key players in sectors like retail, food and beverage, and healthcare, which contribute to its consistent revenue growth. The company's commitment to sustainability and innovation in packaging solutions also helps in attracting and retaining clients, thereby boosting its financial performance.

Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Smurfit Westrock demonstrates a stable financial condition with strengths in profitability and balance sheet health. The company maintains solid margins and a strong equity position, though revenue and free cash flow growth have been inconsistent. There are opportunities for improvement in revenue consistency and cash flow management to enhance overall financial performance.

Income Statement

Smurfit Westrock's income statement reflects a stable gross profit margin of approximately 20% over recent years. The net profit margin has shown improvement, reaching around 3.8% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the EBIT margin has seen fluctuations, with a recent decline. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with occasional declines, although there was a notable increase in 2024. Overall, the company demonstrates profitability with room for improvement in revenue growth consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a solid equity base, with an equity ratio of nearly 40% in 2024, suggesting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.06, signaling manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) has been decent at approximately 4.6% in 2024, though it has decreased compared to prior years. While the company's financial position is stable, there is potential to enhance ROE and further optimize leverage.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a significant drop in free cash flow growth in 2024, indicating increased capital expenditure. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, suggesting efficient cash generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, highlighting the need for careful cash management. Despite challenges, the company's ability to generate operating cash flow remains robust.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
21.11B	12.46B	12.81B	10.11B	8.53B
	Gross Profit
4.20B	4.19B	4.06B	3.09B	2.87B
	EBIT
1.01B	1.38B	1.44B	1.07B	891.00M
	EBITDA
2.55B	2.06B	2.23B	1.80B	1.78B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
319.00M	837.89M	1.01B	768.78M	670.32M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
855.00M	983.81M	777.00M	869.00M	891.00M
	Total Assets
43.76B	13.96B	12.48B	11.71B	10.29B
	Total Debt
1.05B	3.75B	3.78B	3.75B	3.28B
	Net Debt
198.00M	―	3.00B	2.88B	2.38B
	Total Liabilities
26.37B	7.80B	7.44B	7.32B	6.51B
	Stockholders Equity
17.36B	6.15B	5.03B	4.38B	3.77B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
17.00M	727.35M	562.00M	371.00M	733.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.48B	1.68B	1.45B	986.00M	1.25B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.11B	―	-967.00M	-1.00B	-498.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
607.00M	―	-496.00M	-14.00M	-64.00M

Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 40.47
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 40.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.23, below the 50-day MA of 44.63, and below the 200-day MA of 47.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SW.

Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCK	73 Outperform	$11.24B	20.65	21.30%	1.05%	0.87%	34.41%
PKG	73 Outperform	$16.99B	21.15	19.03%	2.69%	9.47%	19.39%
IP	65 Neutral	$23.17B	27.91	3.01%	4.05%	-1.57%	84.85%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.82B	14.87	4.61%	174.99%	3.74%	5.11%
SW	63 Neutral	$21.23B	49.76	13.63%	3.86%	―	―
BERY	59 Neutral	$7.83B	16.83	19.44%	1.73%	-5.35%	-13.51%
AMCR	56 Neutral	$20.81B	16.48	20.71%	5.49%	-3.54%	25.25%

Smurfit Westrock Corporate Events

Smurfit Westrock Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 1, 2025, Smurfit Westrock announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025, reporting net sales of $7,656 million and a net income of $382 million. The company highlighted its strong performance driven by operational and cultural integration across regions, with significant progress in North America. Smurfit Westrock is on track to achieve its synergy program goals and has announced strategic closures and investments to optimize its asset base and support growth. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.4308 per share, payable on June 18, 2025.

Spark’s Take on SW Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, SW is a Neutral.

Smurfit Westrock’s overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. However, technical analysis suggests potential short-term challenges, and valuation metrics imply the stock might be overvalued. The company’s strengths include a stable financial foundation and strategic initiatives yielding synergies, but market momentum and high P/E ratio present cautionary signals.

To see Spark’s full report on SW stock, click here.

Smurfit Westrock Announces Major Mill Closures

On April 30, 2025, Smurfit Westrock announced the permanent closure of its coated recycled board mill in St. Paul, Minnesota, and the discontinuation of production at its containerboard mill in Forney, Texas. Additionally, the company is consulting with local works councils in Germany to close two converting facilities. These closures will affect about 650 employees and reduce the company’s capacity by over 500,000 tons annually. The company anticipates incurring significant pre-tax charges related to severance and restructuring, with a substantial portion recognized in the second quarter of 2025. The closures are part of Smurfit Westrock’s strategy to align with current and future capacity needs and operational costs, while supporting affected employees through transitions.

Spark’s Take on SW Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, SW is a Neutral.

Smurfit Westrock’s overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. However, technical analysis suggests potential short-term challenges, and valuation metrics imply the stock might be overvalued. The company’s strengths include a stable financial foundation and strategic initiatives yielding synergies, but market momentum and high P/E ratio present cautionary signals.

To see Spark’s full report on SW stock, click here.

Smurfit Westrock Appoints Carole L. Brown to Board

On March 10, 2025, Smurfit Westrock plc appointed Carole L. Brown as an independent director to its Board, effective March 11, 2025. Ms. Brown, who has a strong background in asset management and municipal finance, will also serve on the Audit and Sustainability Committees. Her appointment increases the Board size to 15 members, but it will revert to 14 after Dmitri L. Stockton steps down following the 2025 Annual General Meeting.

Dmitri Stockton Resigns from Smurfit Westrock Board

On February 26, 2025, Dmitri Stockton announced his resignation from the Board of Directors of Smurfit Westrock plc, effective after the 2025 Annual General Meeting on May 2, 2025. His departure is not due to any disagreements with the company, and the Board expressed gratitude for his contributions during the company’s formative period following its merger.