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Smurfit Westrock
(NYSE:SW)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
â–²(11.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/05/26
The score is held back primarily by pressured profitability/returns and weakening cash conversion, alongside bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings-call guidance and operational/customer momentum provide some support, but near-term cost headwinds (energy/freight) and a high P/E keep the overall profile only moderately attractive despite the strong dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Integrated operating model
Owning both paper mills and converting plants gives durable vertical integration advantages: it secures internal fiber/paper supply, captures margin across the value chain, allows flexible allocation between internal conversion and external sales, and supports resilience vs. input shocks over months.
Negative Factors
Compressed profitability
Margins remain materially below historic levels, signaling structural pressure on earnings power. Low net and EBIT margins reduce ability to self-fund investments and make targets like 19% group margin by 2030 ambitious absent sustained price/mix improvement and cost control over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated operating model
Owning both paper mills and converting plants gives durable vertical integration advantages: it secures internal fiber/paper supply, captures margin across the value chain, allows flexible allocation between internal conversion and external sales, and supports resilience vs. input shocks over months.
Read all positive factors
Smurfit Westrock Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Geography
Reports operating profitability by region after removing one‑off items, highlighting where margins are strongest or under pressure. Useful for spotting which markets fund corporate returns, how regional costs or pricing affect cash generation, and where management should focus efficiency efforts.
Reports operating profitability by region after removing one‑off items, highlighting where margins are strongest or under pressure. Useful for spotting which markets fund corporate returns, how regional costs or pricing affect cash generation, and where management should focus efficiency efforts.
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The Fly
The FlySmurfit Westrock (SW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.01B
Dividend Yield4.21%
Average Volume (3M)5.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)61.4
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth20.90%
EPS Growth-40.94%
CountryUS
Employees97,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding524,464,050
10 Day Avg. Volume6,573,307
30 Day Avg. Volume5,124,513
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.43
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio16.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$54.60Price Target Upside29.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$32.00B
Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and intern...
How the Company Makes Money
Smurfit Westrock primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling paper-based packaging and related materials to business customers. A core revenue stream comes from corrugated packaging: the company produces containerboard (linerboard and mediu...
Smurfit Westrock Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of solid operational and commercial progress — Q1 adj. EBITDA was in line with plan, regions EMEA/APAC and Latin America outperformed with healthy margins, the company secured significant new customers and reaffirmed full-year guidance while launching an ambitious medium-term plan. These positives were tempered by meaningful near-term cost headwinds (notably energy and freight), Q1 weather and downtime impacts, some lingering volume weakness earlier in the year, and targeted asset closures. Management emphasized improving demand trends entering Q2 and active commercial and cost actions to restore margins.Positive Updates
Group Adjusted EBITDA and Margin in Q1
Delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1,076 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14% for Q1 2026, described as essentially in line with plan.
Negative Updates
Weather and Downtime Impact
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was impacted by weather events costing approximately $65 million across the group; North America suffered ~ $55 million from weather and downtime costs of $74 million (roughly half of that was unplanned).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Adjusted EBITDA and Margin in Q1
Delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1,076 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14% for Q1 2026, described as essentially in line with plan.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $1.1–$1.2 billion and reaffirmed full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $5.0–$5.3 billion; they also reiterated the medium‑term targets of $7 billion adjusted EBITDA and a 19% group margin by 2030, ~7% adjusted EBITDA CAGR and >300 bps margin expansion, and $14 billion of discretionary free cash flow over the plan. Q1 results were adjusted EBITDA $1,076 million (14% margin), with regional Q1 results of North America $597 million (13.3% margin; ~ $55 million weather impact and $74 million downtime, ~half unplanned), EMEA/APAC $421 million (15.2% margin) and Latin America $109 million (>20% margin). Operational metrics and actions called out included ~600 new corrugated customers added in the quarter, >250 million consumer units converted/being converted to SBS/CUK, 34 innovation centers globally (200+ customers at the Amsterdam event), a planned recycled‑paper price increase of €100/ton and contemplated closure of four small converting sites and a ~200,000 tpy U.K. paper mill. On costs and hedging, management said Q2 gas hedges are ~50% (and ~1/3 each for Q3/Q4), energy headwind for the year is now estimated at roughly $270–$290 million (versus ~$80 million previously cited), recovered‑fiber headwind of ~ $20 million in Q2, and freight pressure of about a $50 million headwind for the year, while lower downtime is expected to benefit Q2 by roughly $40 million.Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 30.22B | 31.18B | 20.38B | 10.95B | 12.62B | 10.48B |
| Gross Profit | 5.57B | 6.04B | 4.05B | 2.77B | 3.06B | 2.35B |
| EBITDA | 4.06B | 4.35B | 2.74B | 1.79B | 2.13B | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 371.47M | 699.00M | 307.93M | 747.28M | 965.65M | 704.64M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 45.17B | 53.04B | 43.76B | 14.05B | 12.46B | 11.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 674.00M | 1.05B | 855.00M | 1.00B | 785.41M | 854.32M |
| Total Debt | 14.26B | 16.18B | 13.60B | 4.13B | 3.74B | 3.75B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.09B | 31.48B | 26.37B | 7.88B | 7.47B | 7.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.06B | 21.53B | 17.36B | 6.16B | 4.98B | 4.38B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.02B | 1.20B | 17.00M | 630.00M | 503.00M | 468.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.36B | 3.39B | 1.48B | 1.56B | 1.43B | 1.17B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.29B | -2.14B | -2.11B | -931.00M | -1.02B | -1.19B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.24B | -1.30B | 607.00M | -479.00M | -431.00M | -16.55M |
Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis
Positive
42.24
Price Trends
41.33
Positive
41.94
Positive
40.32
Positive
Market Momentum
1.54
Negative
60.88
Neutral
59.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.06, above the 50-day MA of 41.33, and above the 200-day MA of 40.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SW.
Smurfit Westrock Risk Analysis
Smurfit Westrock disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Smurfit Westrock reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $21.22B | 28.87 | 15.95% | 2.42% | 7.86% | -13.88% | |
63 Neutral | $16.88B | 18.22 | 17.29% | 1.53% | 14.00% | 82.84% | |
63 Neutral | $12.66B | 17.95 | 24.33% | 1.01% | 7.06% | 35.16% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $20.81B | 31.47 | 5.80% | 6.20% | 64.83% | -48.00% | |
55 Neutral | $24.01B | 61.36 | 2.08% | 4.21% | 20.90% | -40.94% | |
46 Neutral | $20.54B | -6.10 | -20.44% | 4.69% | 25.45% | -625.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SW
Smurfit Westrock
45.93
1.04
2.31%
BALL
Ball
63.39
5.82
10.11%
CCK
Crown Holdings
113.29
6.47
6.05%
IP
International Paper Co
38.79
-8.80
-18.50%
PKG
Packaging
238.20
41.78
21.27%
AMCR
Amcor
45.00
-0.57
-1.26%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.