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International Paper Co
(NYSE:IP)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
â–¼(-0.35% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/12/26
The score is held down primarily by the latest profitability breakdown and weakened free-cash-flow quality, alongside bearish price trends (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by continued positive operating cash flow, a high dividend yield, and an earnings-call framework pointing to a potential second-half recovery—though guidance was revised down and near-term cash generation was pressured.
Positive Factors
Stable Operating Cash Flow
Sustained positive operating cash flow (~$2.6B TTM) provides durable internal funding for operations, capex and debt service. Even amid accounting losses, steady OCF supports liquidity, funds transformation investments and cushions cash returns while management executes recovery plans.
Negative Factors
Weak Profitability
Material negative operating profit and ~-14% net margin signal core profitability issues that undermine return on capital. Persistent losses erode retained earnings, constrain reinvestment capacity and require margin restoration to convert operational improvements into lasting shareholder value.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable Operating Cash Flow
Sustained positive operating cash flow (~$2.6B TTM) provides durable internal funding for operations, capex and debt service. Even amid accounting losses, steady OCF supports liquidity, funds transformation investments and cushions cash returns while management executes recovery plans.
Read all positive factors
International Paper Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyInternational Paper Co (IP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.30B
Dividend Yield4.69%
Average Volume (3M)6.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth25.45%
EPS Growth-625.24%
CountryUS
Employees65,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.36
Shares Outstanding529,516,970
10 Day Avg. Volume7,126,986
30 Day Avg. Volume6,223,748
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.40
Price to Sales (P/S)0.84
P/FCF Ratio-130.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-669.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.11Price Target Upside5.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.79B
International Paper Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
International Paper Company, established in 1898 and headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, functions as a leading global packaging enterprise. Its extensive operational footprint spans the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Pacific...
How the Company Makes Money
International Paper primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling fiber-based packaging and pulp products. A major revenue stream is corrugated packaging: IP produces containerboard (linerboard and medium) and converts it into corrugated boxe...
International Paper Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: clear, measurable operational and strategic progress (volume outperformance, productivity gains, targeted investments, EMEA cost saves, strategic acquisition, and a defined path to H2 improvement) but also material near-term headwinds (revised guidance, weather impacts, higher-than-expected transformation costs, freight/energy inflation, and temporary margin compression in EMEA). Management articulated specific remediation steps and expects a significant step-up in the second half, but near-term results and cash generation were pressured.Positive Updates
North America Volume Outperformance
North American box volumes rose 2.5% year-over-year on a per-day basis in Q1 versus an industry decline of 0.3%, delivering roughly a 3% outperformance for the third consecutive quarter; Q2 NA volumes expected to be up ~3% with industry flat and full-year outperformance targeted at ~2%.
Negative Updates
Earnings and Guidance Reset
Earnings came in below expectations and 2026 outlooks were revised down: Packaging Solutions North America guidance trimmed from $2.5B–$2.6B to $2.35B–$2.5B and Packaging Solutions EMEA reduced by ~ $100M (from $1.0B–$1.1B to $0.9B–$1.0B), contributing to an enterprise adjusted EBITDA target of $3.2B–$3.5B.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
North America Volume Outperformance
North American box volumes rose 2.5% year-over-year on a per-day basis in Q1 versus an industry decline of 0.3%, delivering roughly a 3% outperformance for the third consecutive quarter; Q2 NA volumes expected to be up ~3% with industry flat and full-year outperformance targeted at ~2%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
International Paper updated full‑year 2026 guidance to adjusted EBITDA of $2.35–$2.5 billion for Packaging Solutions North America and $900 million–$1.0 billion for Packaging Solutions EMEA, implying enterprise adjusted EBITDA of $3.2–$3.5 billion and free cash flow of roughly $300–$500 million. For Q2 the company sees Packaging Solutions North America adjusted EBITDA of about $380–$410 million and Packaging Solutions EMEA of about $150–$170 million; Q1 enterprise results included adjusted EBITDA of $677 million, adjusted EBIT of $188 million, margins of 11.3%, free cash flow of $94 million (including a $280 million tax refund), Packaging Solutions NA EBITDA of $477 million and EMEA EBITDA of $208 million. Operational and market metrics and drivers noted: North America box volumes +2.5% y/y on a per‑day basis vs. industry −0.3% (≈3% outperformance), Q2 NA volumes expected ≈+3% (industry flat) and full‑year outperformance of ≈2%, industry demand now ~flat y/y (versus prior flat to +1%), box productivity +7% since Q3‑2024, mills self‑generate >70% of energy in NA, investments ≈50% more per facility in 2025–2027 vs. the prior 3‑year average, NORPAC acquisition expected to deliver high‑teens returns, EMEA run‑rate cost savings increased ≈$40 million to >$200 million with 31 closures affecting >2,800 positions, and expected second‑half step‑ups: PS NA first‑half $900 million with a ~$650 million second‑half uplift (≈$300M price/volume/mix, ~$150M 80/20 cost‑outs, ~$150M outage timing benefits, ~$100M Riverdale conversion first‑half drag, offset by ~$50M macro headwind) and PS EMEA second‑half EBITDA of $540–$620 million (driven by ≈$110M margin/commercial recovery, ~$40M cost‑out and ~$50M energy normalization).International Paper Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.97B | 24.90B | 18.62B | 18.92B | 21.16B | 19.36B |
| Gross Profit | 6.95B | 7.35B | 5.24B | 3.85B | 6.02B | 5.53B |
| EBITDA | -41.00M | -138.00M | 1.88B | 2.27B | 2.95B | 2.64B |
| Net Income | -3.35B | -3.52B | 557.00M | 302.00M | 1.50B | 1.75B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 36.43B | 37.96B | 22.80B | 23.26B | 23.94B | 25.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 1.15B | 1.17B | 1.11B | 804.00M | 1.54B |
| Total Debt | 9.54B | 10.80B | 5.85B | 5.91B | 5.86B | 5.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 21.63B | 23.14B | 14.63B | 14.91B | 15.44B | 16.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.81B | 14.83B | 8.17B | 8.36B | 8.50B | 9.08B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 553.00M | -159.00M | 757.00M | 692.00M | 1.24B | 1.48B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.60B | 1.70B | 1.68B | 1.83B | 2.17B | 2.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -696.00M | -1.02B | -808.00M | -668.00M | -608.00M | 6.05B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.75B | -708.00M | -775.00M | -866.00M | -2.05B | -7.38B |
International Paper Co Technical Analysis
Positive
37.13
Price Trends
33.62
Positive
36.43
Positive
38.56
Negative
Market Momentum
1.44
Negative
64.90
Neutral
58.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.03, above the 50-day MA of 33.62, and below the 200-day MA of 38.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IP.
International Paper Co Risk Analysis
International Paper Co disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. International Paper Co reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
International Paper Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $21.20B | 28.84 | 15.95% | 2.42% | 7.86% | -13.88% | |
63 Neutral | $16.44B | 17.74 | 17.29% | 1.53% | 14.00% | 82.84% | |
63 Neutral | $12.45B | 17.65 | 24.33% | 1.01% | 7.06% | 35.16% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $20.18B | 30.52 | 5.80% | 6.20% | 64.83% | -48.00% | |
55 Neutral | $24.10B | 61.09 | 2.08% | 4.21% | 20.90% | -40.94% | |
46 Neutral | $20.30B | -6.03 | -20.44% | 4.69% | 25.45% | -625.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
IP
International Paper Co
38.34
-9.75
-20.27%
BALL
Ball
61.75
3.86
6.66%
CCK
Crown Holdings
111.37
5.74
5.44%
PKG
Packaging
237.93
40.86
20.73%
SW
Smurfit Westrock
46.09
0.87
1.93%
AMCR
Amcor
43.64
-1.98
-4.34%
International Paper Co Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
International Paper shareholders back board, pay and auditor
Positive
May 11, 2026
At its annual meeting of shareowners held on May 11, 2026, International Paper Co. reported that a quorum was present, with 480,640,962 of 529,486,211 eligible common shares represented in person or by proxy. Shareowners elected 11 directors to on...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.