International Paper Co (IP) AI Stock Analysis

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International Paper Co

(NYSE:IP)

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Neutral 49 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:49Neutral

Price Target:

$43.00

▼(-0.81% Downside)

International Paper Co's overall stock score reflects challenges in financial performance and valuation, with negative earnings and cash flow issues being significant concerns. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, although the company is making progress in its transformation strategy, as highlighted in the earnings call. The attractive dividend yield provides some support, but macroeconomic headwinds and market conditions remain challenging.

Positive Factors

Transformation Strategy

International Paper's transformation strategy is yielding significant EBITDA growth, indicating effective cost management and strategic focus, which should enhance long-term profitability.

Market Share Gains

Market share gains in North America suggest competitive advantages and customer loyalty, positioning the company for sustained revenue growth in a key market.

Strategic Cost Initiatives

Strategic cost initiatives, including mill closures and business exits, are enhancing operational efficiency and margin expansion, supporting long-term financial health.

Negative Factors

Negative Profitability Metrics

Negative profitability metrics indicate challenges in cost management and market conditions, potentially hindering sustainable earnings growth and financial stability.

Cash Flow Concerns

Cash flow issues, with negative free cash flow, suggest difficulties in converting income into cash, impacting liquidity and investment capacity for future growth.

Challenging Macro Conditions

Challenging macroeconomic conditions in key regions may suppress demand and pricing power, affecting revenue and profitability in the medium term.

International Paper Co (IP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$22.89B

Dividend Yield4.69%

Average Volume (3M)4.20M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.91

Revenue Growth25.91%

EPS Growth-316.17%

CountryUS

Employees65,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryPackaging & Containers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.43

Shares Outstanding528,038,300

10 Day Avg. Volume4,921,980

30 Day Avg. Volume4,198,685

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.36

Price to Book (P/B)2.29

Price to Sales (P/S)1.00

P/FCF Ratio24.68

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.45

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.99

Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.04

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$47.20

Price Target Upside8.88% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering11

EPS Forecast (FY)2.11

Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.69B

International Paper Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionInternational Paper Company operates as a packaging company primarily in United States, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, Pacific Rim, Asia, and rest of the Americas. It operates through two segments: Industrial Packaging and Global Cellulose Fibers. The Industrial Packaging segment manufactures containerboards, including linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium, and saturating kraft. The Global Cellulose Fibers segment provides fluff, market, and specialty pulps that are used in absorbent hygiene products, such as baby diapers, feminine care, adult incontinence, and other non-woven products; tissue and paper products; and non-absorbent end applications, including textiles, filtration, construction material, paints and coatings, reinforced plastics, and other applications. It sells its products directly to end users and converters, as well as through agents, resellers, and paper distributors. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes MoneyInternational Paper generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products across its three segments. The Industrial Packaging segment, which includes containerboard and corrugated packaging, accounts for a significant portion of the company's revenue, driven by demand from various industries such as e-commerce, food and beverage, and consumer goods. The Global Cellulose Fibers segment contributes through the production of absorbent materials used in personal care products, while the Printing Papers segment generates income through the sale of paper products for commercial printing and publishing. Additionally, International Paper benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with major customers that provide stable revenue streams. The company's commitment to sustainability and innovation also enhances its market position, enabling it to capitalize on growing demand for eco-friendly packaging solutions.

International Paper Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Geography

Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.

Chart InsightsInternational Paper's revenue in the United States shows a modest recovery after a dip in 2023, while EMEA's revenue surged in Q1 2025, likely due to the successful integration of DS Smith. However, the Pacific Rim and Asia continue to struggle with declining revenues. Despite soft demand in North America and Europe, the company is focused on cost reductions and commercial improvements, aiming for significant EBITDA growth by Q4 2025. This strategic focus could mitigate the impact of economic uncertainties and position the company for future profitability.

Data provided by:

The Fly

International Paper Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Jan 29, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

International Paper is making significant progress on its transformation strategy, with notable achievements in EBITDA growth and market share gains in North America. However, challenging macroeconomic conditions, particularly in EMEA, are creating headwinds, impacting price and volume expectations. Cost initiatives and strategic actions are offsetting some of these challenges, positioning the company for continued improvement.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Significant Progress in Transformation

International Paper is making measurable progress on its transformation strategy, with a 40% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024, and an expansion of adjusted EBITDA margin by 370 basis points.

Packaging Solutions Growth

The Packaging Solutions businesses grew EBITDA sequentially by 28%, underscoring the progress made with the 80/20 implementation strategy.

North American Market Share Gains

International Paper took market share and grew box shipments in September, with a trend expected to continue in the fourth quarter and into 2026.

Strategic Cost Initiatives

Cost initiatives including mill closures and specialty business exits are contributing to a stronger business, reflecting in EBITDA improvement and enabling margin expansion.

Negative Updates

Challenging Macro Conditions

Macroeconomic conditions in North America and EMEA continue to be challenging, affecting market conditions and resulting in softer-than-expected demand.

EMEA Market Softness

EMEA experienced soft demand, resulting in lower-than-expected price and volume, driven by market softness and destocking in anticipation of paper price declines.

Reduction in Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow for the quarter increased to $150 million, but with direct cash costs of approximately $60 million related to transformation, impacting overall financial metrics.

Expected Decline in Industry Shipments

U.S. box industry shipments are now expected to decline by approximately 1% to 1.5% for the full year, contrary to initial expectations of a 1% to 1.5% increase.

Company Guidance

During International Paper's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance focusing on adjusted EBITDA as a key metric for evaluating their transformational progress. The North American business experienced a 40% year-to-date increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to 2024, with a 370 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin. For the fourth quarter, North America's EBITDA is projected at approximately $600 million, despite an expected $82 million volume decline due to exiting nonstrategic markets. In EMEA, third-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $209 million, with a fourth-quarter outlook of around $230 million. The company anticipates $600 million in incremental adjusted EBITDA for 2026, fueled by cost actions and strategic commercial wins. However, due to market headwinds, the company adjusted its 2025 targets to $24 billion in net sales and $3 billion in adjusted EBITDA, with long-term goals of $5 billion in EBITDA by 2027.

International Paper Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

International Paper Co faces challenges in profitability and cash flow management, despite showing revenue growth. The balance sheet remains relatively stable, but the negative return on equity and cash flow issues highlight areas needing improvement. Strategic focus on cost management and cash flow optimization could enhance financial performance.

Income Statement

Neutral

International Paper Co's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a significant revenue growth rate of 7%, but this is overshadowed by negative profitability metrics, including a net profit margin of -5.45% and an EBIT margin of -1.91%. The gross profit margin remains stable at around 28.96%, but the negative net income and EBIT suggest challenges in managing costs or market conditions.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60, indicating a manageable level of leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -8.23%, highlighting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively healthy, suggesting a solid asset base.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow analysis reveals concerns, with a negative free cash flow and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -23.28%. While operating cash flow remains positive, the low operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.15 indicates potential issues in converting income into cash. The significant growth in free cash flow is a positive sign, but sustainability is uncertain.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	23.47B	18.62B	18.92B	21.16B	19.36B	17.57B
Gross Profit	6.80B	5.24B	3.85B	6.02B	5.53B	4.18B
EBITDA	2.12B	1.88B	2.27B	2.95B	2.64B	2.06B
Net Income	-1.28B	557.00M	302.00M	1.50B	1.75B	230.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.57B	22.80B	23.26B	23.94B	25.24B	31.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	995.00M	1.17B	1.11B	804.00M	1.54B	5.32B
Total Debt	10.41B	5.85B	5.91B	5.86B	5.82B	12.54B
Total Liabilities	23.25B	14.63B	14.91B	15.44B	16.16B	23.85B
Stockholders Equity	17.32B	8.17B	8.36B	8.50B	9.08B	7.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-277.00M	757.00M	692.00M	1.24B	1.48B	2.31B
Operating Cash Flow	1.19B	1.68B	1.83B	2.17B	2.03B	3.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-652.00M	-808.00M	-668.00M	-608.00M	6.05B	-269.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-742.00M	-775.00M	-866.00M	-2.05B	-7.38B	-2.70B

International Paper Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price43.35

Price Trends

50DMA

39.10

Positive

100DMA

42.39

Positive

200DMA

44.73

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

1.08

Negative

RSI

64.78

Neutral

STOCH

89.99

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.77, above the 50-day MA of 39.10, and below the 200-day MA of 44.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IP.

International Paper Co Risk Analysis

International Paper Co disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. International Paper Co reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

International Paper Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	76 Outperform	$19.91B	22.38	19.68%	2.42%	7.30%	15.31%
AMCR	73 Outperform	$18.90B	119.60	7.44%	6.20%	28.41%	-35.50%
CCK	73 Outperform	$12.02B	12.90	34.10%	1.01%	2.94%	893.70%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SW	61 Neutral	$22.23B	29.92	4.11%	4.51%	―	―
BALL	59 Neutral	$15.03B	20.98	11.74%	1.53%	2.87%	―
IP	49 Neutral	$22.89B	-16.61	-4.65%	4.69%	25.91%	-316.17%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

International Paper Co

43.35

-12.84

-22.85%

BALL

Ball

56.08

2.62

4.90%

CCK

Crown Holdings

104.24

18.30

21.29%

PKG

Packaging

221.33

-10.68

-4.60%

Smurfit Westrock

42.71

-8.20

-16.11%

AMCR

Amcor

40.94

-4.87

-10.63%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 03, 2025