International Paper Co (IP)
NYSE:IP
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International Paper Co
(NYSE:IP)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$34.00
▼(-4.09% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/30/26
The score is held back primarily by the 2025 collapse in profitability and negative free cash flow, alongside a technically weak price trend. These are partially offset by constructive 2026 guidance and cost-out progress from the latest earnings call, plus a supportive dividend yield and a portfolio-refocusing divestiture.
Positive Factors
North America scale & profitability
Large pro forma North American scale and mid-single-digit billions of adjusted EBITDA provide durable competitive advantages: stronger procurement leverage, pricing power with major customers, and ability to fund mill reliability and conversion investments that support sustained margin improvement and market share gains.
Negative Factors
2025 profitability collapse
A transition from recurring profitability to a large net loss indicates meaningful operating and/or non‑operational disruption. Persistent earnings volatility undermines return metrics, weakens retained earnings, and increases the burden on management to restore consistent operating leverage before capital returns or major new investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
North America scale & profitability
Large pro forma North American scale and mid-single-digit billions of adjusted EBITDA provide durable competitive advantages: stronger procurement leverage, pricing power with major customers, and ability to fund mill reliability and conversion investments that support sustained margin improvement and market share gains.
Read all positive factors
International Paper Co (IP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.77B
Dividend Yield4.69%
Average Volume (3M)6.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth33.71%
EPS Growth-517.99%
CountryUS
Employees65,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding529,469,400
10 Day Avg. Volume7,370,023
30 Day Avg. Volume6,174,166
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.40
Price to Sales (P/S)0.84
P/FCF Ratio-130.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-218.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$47.33Price Target Upside33.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.80B
International Paper Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
International Paper Company operates as a packaging company primarily in United States, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, Pacific Rim, Asia, and rest of the Americas. It operates through two segments: Industrial Packaging and Global Cellulose Fiber...
How the Company Makes Money
International Paper primarily makes money by manufacturing fiber-based products and selling them to commercial customers under contract and spot arrangements, with revenue largely tied to volumes shipped and market pricing for key grades.
1) Pack...
International Paper Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyInternational Paper Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call outlined a decisive strategic shift — separating into two regional public companies — supported by meaningful cost-out progress, strong North America EBITDA growth (≈37% YoY) and margin expansion (~230 bps). Pro forma scale and clear 2026 guidance (adjusted EBITDA $3.5–$3.7B) provide a constructive outlook. Near-term challenges include transformation-related one-time costs, negative free cash flow in 2025, workforce reductions in EMEA, pricing uncertainty (price actions excluded from guidance), and timing/transition risks associated with the spin. On balance, the positives — substantial executed cost actions, commercial momentum, improved service metrics, and clear multi-year targets — outweigh the short-term headwinds and execution risks.Positive Updates
Transformation and Strategic Separation
Announced plan to separate into two publicly traded regional packaging leaders (Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA) to increase regional focus, tailored capital allocation, and accelerate value creation.
Negative Updates
Negative Free Cash Flow in 2025
Investment in the transformation and acquisition-related effects resulted in negative free cash flow of $159M for the enterprise in 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transformation and Strategic Separation
Announced plan to separate into two publicly traded regional packaging leaders (Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA) to increase regional focus, tailored capital allocation, and accelerate value creation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided enterprise 2026 net sales of $24.1–$24.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $3.5–$3.7 billion and free cash flow of $300–$500 million, with first‑quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $740–$760 million; Packaging Solutions North America (pro forma FY'25: >$15B sales, ~$2.3B adj. EBITDA) is targeting $2.5–$2.6B adj. EBITDA in 2026 driven by ~ $100M of commercial benefits and ~$500M of cost benefits (offset by ~$200M of nonrecurring transformation costs and roughly $200M of inflation), with Q1 NA outlook of ~ $534M adj. EBITDA (price/mix +$51M, volume -$68M) and an estimated winter‑storm Q1 hit of $20–$25M; Packaging Solutions EMEA (pro forma FY'25: ~$8.5B sales, ~$800M adj. EBITDA) expects ~$200M of commercial and ~$200M of cost‑out benefits in 2026 (offset by ~$100M of inflation), Q4 EMEA EBITDA up $19M sequential, and Q1 roughly flat with price/volume tailwinds ~+$33M but ops/costs +$42M; other metrics: $710M total cost‑out actions through 2025, $510M run‑rate benefits in NA in 2025, >$160M run‑rate savings from EMEA site actions, ~165,000,000 of first‑half nonrecurring timing impacts that unwind in H2, and every $10/ton of price = ~ $90M annualized EBITDA.International Paper Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 24.90B | 18.62B | 18.92B | 21.16B | 19.36B |
| Gross Profit | 7.35B | 5.24B | 3.85B | 6.02B | 5.53B |
| EBITDA | -138.00M | 1.88B | 2.27B | 2.95B | 2.64B |
| Net Income | -3.52B | 557.00M | 302.00M | 1.50B | 1.75B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 37.96B | 22.80B | 23.26B | 23.94B | 25.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.15B | 1.17B | 1.11B | 804.00M | 1.54B |
| Total Debt | 10.80B | 5.85B | 5.91B | 5.86B | 5.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.14B | 14.63B | 14.91B | 15.44B | 16.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.83B | 8.17B | 8.36B | 8.50B | 9.08B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -159.00M | 757.00M | 692.00M | 1.24B | 1.48B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.70B | 1.68B | 1.83B | 2.17B | 2.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.02B | -808.00M | -668.00M | -608.00M | 6.05B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -708.00M | -775.00M | -866.00M | -2.05B | -7.38B |
International Paper Co Technical Analysis
Negative
35.45
Price Trends
41.57
Negative
40.00
Negative
43.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.95
Positive
36.41
Neutral
50.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.79, below the 50-day MA of 41.57, and below the 200-day MA of 43.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IP.
International Paper Co Risk Analysis
International Paper Co disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. International Paper Co reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
International Paper Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $11.28B | 16.16 | 25.41% | 1.01% | 2.94% | 893.70% | |
68 Neutral | $20.60B | 25.47 | 3.90% | 4.21% | ― | ― | |
66 Neutral | $15.77B | 15.93 | 16.89% | 1.53% | 2.87% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $18.94B | 24.15 | 16.73% | 2.42% | 7.23% | -3.88% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $17.84B | 27.28 | 6.12% | 6.20% | 28.41% | -35.50% | |
49 Neutral | $18.77B | -5.92 | -20.43% | 4.69% | 33.71% | -517.99% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
IP
International Paper Co
35.45
-15.73
-30.74%
BALL
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59.27
7.95
15.50%
CCK
Crown Holdings
99.58
11.31
12.82%
PKG
Packaging
212.25
18.98
9.82%
SW
Smurfit Westrock
39.41
-3.87
-8.94%
AMCR
Amcor
38.62
-7.16
-15.65%
International Paper Co Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
International Paper CEO to Present at BofA Conference
Neutral
Feb 26, 2026
International Paper said Chief Executive Officer Andy Silvernail will speak at the Bank of America Securities 2026 Global Agriculture and Materials Conference on February 26, 2026, at 8:15 a.m. ET. His presentation, followed by a QA session, will ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
International Paper Divests Global Cellulose Fibers to Refocus
Positive
Jan 23, 2026
On January 23, 2026, International Paper completed the sale of its Global Cellulose Fibers (GCF) business to funds affiliated with American Industrial Partners for $1.5 billion, including preferred stock with an initial liquidation preference of $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.