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Avery Dennison Corp. (AVY)
NYSE:AVY

Avery Dennison (AVY) AI Stock Analysis

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AVY

Avery Dennison

(NYSE:AVY)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$212.00
▲(7.66% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
The score is driven primarily by resilient financial fundamentals (steady margins and strong, repeatable cash generation) and constructive technical momentum. Offsetting factors are leverage-related balance-sheet risk, modest valuation support (P/E ~21 with a ~1.9% yield), and earnings-call commentary pointing to limited near-term organic growth and tariff-related demand uncertainty despite stable EPS/FCF guidance.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent operating and free cash flow (roughly $0.75B–$1.05B OCF; $0.53B–$0.77B FCF historically) supports reinvestment, buybacks and dividends. High cash conversion provides durable funding for strategic projects and cushions performance through cyclical retail cycles.
Resilient margins and profitability
Stable gross margins in the high-20s and EBITDA margins in the mid-teens indicate structural pricing power and cost control across product portfolios. Sustained margins underpin cash generation and make investment returns less sensitive to near-term sales variability.
Shift to higher-value products and intelligent labels
Growing mix toward high-value solutions (45% of sales) and intelligent-label momentum in food, logistics and industrial creates higher-margin, sticky revenue streams. This structural mix shift reduces reliance on lower-margin apparel and supports multi-year growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
Material leverage and debt-heavy capital structure
Elevated gross debt relative to equity and net debt to adjusted EBITDA around 2.4x constrains flexibility for large M&A or aggressive capital programs. Higher leverage increases interest expense sensitivity and reduces resilience if cash conversion weakens or macro conditions stress demand.
Weak organic revenue growth outlook
Limited organic growth implies modest operating-leverage upside and continued dependence on currency tailwinds and bolt-on deals to lift sales. Prolonged subpar organic expansion can cap long-term margin expansion and returns despite productivity programs.
Elevated inventories and working-capital pressure
A shift into higher-value, more working-capital intensive categories and inventory elevation ties up cash and increases cycle-time risk. That raises FCF volatility, can pressure margins if markdowns occur, and reduces short-term liquidity flexibility versus peers.

Avery Dennison (AVY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Avery Dennison Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAvery Dennison Corporation manufactures and markets pressure-sensitive materials and products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Latin America, and internationally. The company's Label and Graphic Materials segment offers pressure-sensitive label and packaging materials; and graphics and reflective products under the Fasson, JAC, Avery Dennison, and Mactac brands, as well as durable cast and reflective films. It provides its products to the home and personal care, beer and beverage, durables, pharmaceutical, wine and spirits, and food market segments; architectural, commercial sign, digital printing, and other related market segments; construction, automotive, and fleet transportation market segments, as well as traffic and safety applications; and sign shops, commercial printers, and designers. The company's Retail Branding and Information Solutions segment designs, manufactures, and sells brand embellishments, graphic tickets, tags and labels, and sustainable packaging solutions, as well as offers creative services; radio-frequency identification products; visibility and loss prevention solutions; price ticketing and marking solutions; care, content, and country of origin compliance solutions; and brand protection and security solutions. It serves retailers, brand owners, apparel manufacturers, distributors, and industrial customers. The company's Industrial and Healthcare Materials segment offers tapes; pressure-sensitive adhesive based materials and converted products; medical fasteners; and performance polymers under the Fasson, Avery Dennison, and Yongle brands. It serves automotive, electronics, building and construction, general industrial, personal care, and medical markets. The company was formerly known as Avery International Corporation and changed its name to Avery Dennison Corporation in 1990. Avery Dennison Corporation was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Glendale, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyAvery Dennison generates revenue primarily through the sale of its labeling and packaging materials. The key revenue streams include the Label and Graphic Materials segment, which contributes a significant portion of the company's sales through products such as pressure-sensitive labels and specialty films. The Retail Branding and Information Solutions segment also plays a crucial role in revenue generation by providing brand identification products and services to retailers and manufacturers. The company benefits from long-term partnerships with major consumer brands, enabling it to maintain a steady demand for its products. Additionally, Avery Dennison invests in innovative technologies, such as RFID and smart labeling solutions, which cater to evolving market needs and drive further revenue growth.

Avery Dennison Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals the profitability of each business segment, indicating which areas are most effective at generating profit and where there may be opportunities for improvement.
Chart InsightsAvery Dennison's Materials Group shows a recovery in operating income after a dip in 2023, aligning with strong EBITDA margins despite slight sales declines. The Solutions Group, after a volatile 2023, is stabilizing with improved margins. The earnings call highlights resilience amid challenges, with growth in logistics and Vestcom offsetting apparel segment declines. Management's cautious outlook reflects trade policy uncertainties and softer apparel volumes, but there's optimism for earnings growth in the fourth quarter, suggesting strategic resilience in navigating market pressures.
Data provided by:The Fly

Avery Dennison Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reported several clear positives — strong free cash flow ($700M), disciplined capital returns (~$860M), resilient margins (mid-teens EBITDA margins), meaningful progress expanding high-value categories (now ~45% of sales) and targeted growth in intelligent labels outside apparel (food/logistics). However, top-line organic growth remains weak, apparel and general retail continue to be pressured by tariff uncertainty, employee-cost inflation and the normalization of temporary savings create 2026 headwinds, and the company missed a multi-year EPS target. Overall, the company appears financially resilient and strategically positioned for longer-term growth, but near-term revenue visibility and tariff-driven demand weakness are material risks.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Cash Generation and Shareholder Returns
Generated $300M adjusted free cash flow in Q4 and $700M for full-year 2025 with free cash flow conversion >100%. Returned approximately $860M to shareholders in 2025 (≈$572M buybacks, $288M dividends).
Resilient Profitability and Margins
Maintained enterprise adjusted EBITDA margin ~16.4% for the year. Materials Group adjusted EBITDA margin 16.6% (Q4) and Solutions Group margin 17.8% (Q4), with Solutions margin up ~1 point sequentially.
Adjusted EPS Performance and Outlook
Delivered adjusted EPS of $2.45 in Q4 (up 3% YoY) and full-year adjusted EPS of $9.53. 2026 outlook expects adjusted EPS growth ~6% at midpoint with 2026 EPS guidance of $2.40–$2.46.
Reported Sales Growth (Q4) and Calendar/Acquisition Benefits
Reported sales increased 3.9% in Q4 2025. Q4 benefited from an estimated +1.5 pts from the Gregorian calendar shift and ~+1 pt from the Taylor Adhesives acquisition.
High-Value Portfolio Expansion and Performance
High-value categories expanded to ~45% of company sales in 2025 (12% increase since 2019). Materials Group high-value mix 38%; Solutions Group high-value mix 60%. High-value categories have grown at a mid-single-digit CAGR over six years.
Intelligent Labels Momentum Outside Apparel
Enterprise intelligent label (IL) sales grew mid-single digits in Q4. Food, logistics and industrial categories delivered outsized performance (high teens growth in Q4; ~10% growth for full-year 2025).
Notable Segment Wins and Product Growth
Vesprom (VESCOM) grew >10% and Embellix delivered high single-digit growth in Q4; Intelligent Labels delivered high single-digit growth in Materials Group and low single-digit in Solutions Group, demonstrating traction in targeted platforms.
Balance Sheet Strength and Capital Discipline
Quarter-end net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.4x. Committed to disciplined capital allocation with targeted CapEx ~$260M for 2026 and continued focus on productivity (anticipated ~$50M restructuring savings).
Negative Updates
Disappointing Organic Revenue Growth
Management expressed dissatisfaction with organic revenue trajectory; 2026 organic sales guidance only 0%–2%, indicating limited near-term top-line improvement despite other positives.
Tariff-Related Pressure on Apparel and General Retail
Apparel and general retail were meaningfully impacted by tariff uncertainty: base apparel down ~7% in the quarter; apparel/general retail combined were down low single digits for IL and flat for the full year, weighing on overall growth.
Margin Headwinds from Employee Costs and One-Time Comparisons
Materials Group adjusted EBITDA margin declined ~40 basis points YoY in Q4 (to 16.6%), driven by higher employee-related costs and the absence of certain one-time benefits from prior-year Q4; enterprise Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin ~16.2% was slightly below prior year.
Temporary Savings Normalization Will Weigh on 2026
Normalization of 2025 temporary savings (largely incentive compensation) expected to be a headwind in 2026, roughly similar in magnitude to the ~$50M restructuring savings planned for the year.
Missed Multi-Year EPS Target
For the 2022–2025 cycle, adjusted EPS performance (7% ex-currency) trailed the 10% target, indicating execution/earnings pressure partly from acquisition amortization and other factors.
Inventory / Working Capital Pressure from Mix Shift
Inventories to sales ratios elevated vs. pre-pandemic levels as growth in high-value categories (which are more working capital intensive) and emerging markets put upward pressure on working capital.
Customer Volume Variability and Visibility Limits
Softer consumer demand and customer uncertainty (inventory management shifts) caused weaker base volumes; company now providing quarterly guidance due to limited visibility amid dynamic macro and policy changes.
Company Guidance
For 2026 the company guided to reported sales growth of 5%–7% (composed of organic growth of 0%–2%, ~4% from currency translation and ~1% from the recent adhesives acquisition) and adjusted EPS of $2.40–$2.46 (about 6% growth at the midpoint); management expects roughly a $0.25 EPS benefit from favorable currency and a lower share count (partially offset by higher tax and interest), about $50 million of restructuring savings, fixed and IT capital spending of ~ $260 million, continued strong free‑cash‑flow targeting ≈100% conversion, and a sequential increase in earnings through the year while assuming no macro tailwinds and anticipating stronger second‑half growth as intelligent‑label programs (including the Walmart fresh grocery rollout) ramp.

Avery Dennison Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Supported by solid profitability and consistently strong operating/free cash flow, but tempered by uneven growth, net income below 2022 levels, and a debt-heavy balance sheet (plus some inconsistency in the latest leverage/return fields).
Income Statement
72
Positive
Revenue has been broadly stable with a modest step-up from 2023 to 2024 and slight growth again in 2025, but the longer trend shows uneven demand (including a decline in 2023). Profitability is solid and fairly consistent: gross margin has held in the high‑20% range and EBITDA margin sits in the mid‑teens, indicating good pricing and cost control. The main weakness is earnings momentum—net income is below the 2022 level and margins have not meaningfully expanded, suggesting limited operating leverage in the most recent years.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Leverage is meaningful: total debt remains high (roughly $3.1B–$3.7B) relative to equity (~$2.0B–$2.3B in most years), implying a debt-heavy capital structure and less balance-sheet flexibility if conditions soften. Total assets have grown over time, which supports scale, and returns on equity were strong in 2021–2024, pointing to efficient capital use. A key weakness is data inconsistency in 2025 (debt-to-equity and return on equity are shown as 0.0 despite sizable debt and equity), which reduces confidence in the latest-year leverage and return signals.
Cash Flow
76
Positive
Cash generation is a strength: operating cash flow has been consistently robust (roughly $0.75B–$1.05B) and free cash flow remains strong (about $0.53B–$0.77B), supporting reinvestment and shareholder returns. Free cash flow has generally tracked earnings well, with free cash flow running at roughly two‑thirds to four‑fifths of net income across the period, indicating decent cash conversion. The weakness is volatility in year-to-year free cash flow growth (notably declines in 2022 and 2023), implying working-capital or spending swings rather than a smooth upward trajectory.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.86B8.76B8.36B9.04B8.41B
Gross Profit2.55B2.53B2.27B2.40B2.31B
EBITDA1.34B1.38B1.11B1.37B1.31B
Net Income688.00M704.90M503.00M757.10M740.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.80B8.40B8.21B7.95B7.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments202.80M367.20M215.00M167.20M162.70M
Total Debt3.73B3.15B3.24B3.10B3.10B
Total Liabilities6.56B6.09B6.08B5.92B6.05B
Stockholders Equity2.24B2.31B2.13B2.03B1.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow712.40M730.00M540.90M662.50M774.70M
Operating Cash Flow881.40M938.80M826.00M961.00M1.05B
Investing Cash Flow-596.00M-243.10M-459.00M-332.70M-1.74B
Financing Cash Flow-414.90M-576.10M-317.20M-615.20M604.30M

Avery Dennison Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price196.92
Price Trends
50DMA
186.28
Positive
100DMA
177.59
Positive
200DMA
175.18
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.93
Negative
RSI
65.29
Neutral
STOCH
76.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 196.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 190.72, above the 50-day MA of 186.28, and above the 200-day MA of 175.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVY.

Avery Dennison Risk Analysis

Avery Dennison disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avery Dennison reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Avery Dennison Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$21.51B27.852.42%7.23%-3.88%
71
Outperform
$13.16B17.8825.61%1.01%2.94%893.70%
71
Outperform
$5.68B14.4820.01%4.33%8.31%-99.39%
70
Outperform
$15.10B22.2430.21%2.04%1.03%5.52%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
60
Neutral
$5.10B17.8613.53%1.97%11.10%6.54%
58
Neutral
$3.86B8.8413.99%2.91%-3.93%-27.37%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AVY
Avery Dennison
196.92
16.24
8.99%
CCK
Crown Holdings
114.80
28.92
33.67%
GPK
Graphic Packaging
12.52
-13.78
-52.40%
PKG
Packaging
237.21
32.64
15.96%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
48.42
-5.18
-9.66%
SON
Sonoco Products
56.45
12.04
27.11%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 05, 2026