PTT Exploration (PEXNY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.74B
• Dividend Yield: 7.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 556.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.3
• Beta (1Y): -0.21
• Revenue Growth: -2.35%
• EPS Growth: -17.06%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,982
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 1,984,992,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 949
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 556
• PEG Ratio: -0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 35.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.42
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.94
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.26B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(21.62% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) alongside solid underlying financial performance. Offsetting factors are cyclical weakening and increased free-cash-flow volatility in 2025, while technicals are moderately supportive but still below the 200-day moving average.

Positive Factors

High profitability and margins

Sustained high net and operating margins (~25% in 2024) indicate structural cost advantages and profitable asset base. This durability supports internal funding for capex and dividends, provides a buffer in downturns, and underpins medium-term return generation.

Improving, moderate leverage

Lower and improving leverage (debt/equity ~0.24) gives the company financial flexibility to invest, weather commodity cycles, and maintain distributions. A sizable equity base vs. debt reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic optionality over months.

Consistent operating cash generation

Regular operating cash flow above reported earnings shows quality earnings and sustained cash conversion ability. Reliable OCF supports capex, debt service and shareholder returns, giving resilience across multi-quarter cycles despite episodic FCF swings.

Negative Factors

Cyclical revenue and earnings declines

The company’s top-line and net income show commodity-driven cyclicality with recent declines (2025 revenue -6.2%). This structural exposure reduces earnings predictability, can compress margins during downturns, and limits multi-quarter planning for investment and payouts.

Free cash flow volatility

A large FCF swing (down from ~96B to ~29B) highlights sensitivity to prices, working capital and capex timing. Persistent FCF volatility undermines confidence in sustainable dividends and discretionary investments over the coming quarters without clear stabilization.

Equity base weakened in 2025

A decline in equity alongside weaker earnings reduces the capital cushion and could constrain borrowing capacity or increase cost of capital. If the downturn persists, pressure on ROE and ability to fund growth or distributions could be prolonged.

PTT Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of petroleum in Thailand and internationally. It is also involved in the gas pipeline transportation business; investment funding; and the provision of petroleum-related technology, human resource support, treasury center, technology, and solar power businesses, as well as renewable energy and related activities. In addition, the company invests in cleaner energy and technology-related businesses. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of PTT Public Company Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

PEXNY generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company’s revenue model is centered on the exploration, production, and sale of hydrocarbons, where it earns money from the extraction and sale of these resources to various markets. Key revenue streams include the sale of produced oil and gas, contractual agreements with energy companies, and joint ventures in exploration projects. Additionally, PEXNY benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with other energy firms, which enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, allowing for shared resources and reduced exploration risks. Fluctuations in global oil prices and demand also play a critical role in influencing the company’s overall revenue and profitability.

PTT Exploration Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and solid margins (2024 net margin ~25%) with a healthy, moderately levered balance sheet (debt-to-equity improving to ~0.24 in 2024). Main risks are cyclical weakening in 2025 (revenue -6.2% and net income down vs. 2024) and higher cash flow volatility as free cash flow fell sharply in 2025 (~29B vs. ~96B in 2024).

Income Statement

Profitability is strong, with consistently high profit levels across 2020–2024 and solid margins in the years provided (2024 net margin ~25% and strong operating profitability). However, growth has become less reliable: revenue declined in 2023, recovered slightly in 2024, and fell again in 2025 (annual revenue growth -6.2%), with net income also down in 2025 versus 2024—typical cyclicality risk for the sector.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks healthy: leverage is moderate and improving, with debt-to-equity moving down from ~0.33 (2020–2021) to ~0.24 (2024), while equity remains very large relative to debt. Returns on equity are solid in 2022–2024 (~15%), supporting balance-sheet efficiency. A watch item is that equity dipped in 2025 versus 2024, alongside weaker earnings, which can pressure returns if the downturn persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally strong, with sizable operating cash flow in every year and operating cash flow exceeding net income in the years provided (coverage ~1.4–1.9 in 2022–2024), indicating good earnings quality. The main concern is volatility: free cash flow dropped sharply in 2024–2025 (2025 free cash flow ~29B vs ~96B in 2024) and free cash flow growth turned negative in 2025, suggesting higher spending and/or weaker cash conversion late-cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	269.81B	312.31B	300.69B	331.35B	219.07B
Gross Profit	174.33B	203.26B	203.74B	224.04B	124.67B
EBITDA	186.67B	242.88B	231.97B	234.58B	157.16B
Net Income	60.27B	78.82B	76.71B	70.90B	38.86B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	933.94B	965.30B	902.82B	869.86B	783.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	77.93B	143.74B	145.20B	122.35B	85.53B
Total Debt	126.77B	127.83B	134.65B	142.96B	136.81B
Total Liabilities	414.37B	429.43B	403.38B	402.74B	368.19B
Stockholders Equity	519.31B	535.59B	499.33B	467.12B	415.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	29.42B	95.86B	68.67B	98.74B	56.67B
Operating Cash Flow	150.40B	202.30B	151.85B	164.92B	110.07B
Investing Cash Flow	-149.86B	-150.37B	-82.45B	-59.29B	-123.02B
Financing Cash Flow	-54.69B	-54.37B	-51.42B	-70.07B	-22.20B

PTT Exploration Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PEXNY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.74, above the 50-day MA of 6.46, and below the 200-day MA of 7.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PEXNY.

PTT Exploration Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PR	80 Outperform	$16.90B	7.70	9.66%	4.27%	7.55%	-34.40%
PEXNY	78 Outperform	$17.74B	6.31	11.75%	7.99%	-2.35%	-17.06%
APA	74 Outperform	$11.54B	6.12	25.22%	3.80%	4.88%	-41.34%
CTRA	74 Outperform	$23.56B	11.67	12.27%	3.39%	26.13%	31.42%
OVV	74 Outperform	$14.80B	8.12	11.54%	3.16%	-8.07%	-87.88%
AR	74 Outperform	$11.98B	16.82	8.71%	―	17.05%	1028.81%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%