Penumbra (PEN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.32B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.37M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 80.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.13
• Revenue Growth: 14.61%
• EPS Growth: 369.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,500
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): 1.18
• Shares Outstanding: 39,229,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 528,530
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,367,490
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 69.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 63.07
• 1Y Price Target: $372.36
• Price Target Upside: 8.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.58B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $374.00 ▲(9.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (material revenue growth, improved margins, better cash generation, and low leverage). Offsetting factors are a demanding valuation (high P/E) and a mixed near-term technical picture, while the latest earnings commentary and the announced acquisition with strong preliminary results are supportive but carry execution/approval risks.

Positive Factors

Sustained Revenue Scaling

Penumbra has shown durable top-line expansion over multiple years, roughly 2.5x revenue growth from 2020 to 2025. This indicates strong adoption of its interventional devices, recurring consumable demand from procedures, and execution on commercial expansion that supports continued structural growth.

High-growth Clinical Franchises

The VTE and embolization/access franchises are driving outsized organic growth, with VTE up 34% and embolization/access up ~29%. Durable franchise-level momentum diversifies revenue beyond core stroke devices and increases recurring procedure-driven consumable sales.

Improving Margins & Strong Cash Flow

Penumbra’s gross margins expanded into the high-60s and net margin inflected to the mid-teens, while operating and free cash flow rose materially in 2025. Combined with low debt levels, this strengthens financial flexibility to fund R&D, sales expansion, and potential integration with partners.

Negative Factors

China Growth Headwinds

Slower growth in China dampens Penumbra’s international momentum and limits near-term upside from outside the U.S. Sustained geopolitical, reimbursement or market-access challenges in China could materially constrain total addressable market expansion over the next 2–6 months.

Historical Cash-Flow Volatility

Although 2025 cash generation improved, historical swings (periods of negative cash flow) show sensitivity to cycles, product investment timing, and operating leverage. Persistent volatility would raise execution risk and could stress investment plans if growth or margins decelerate.

Deal & Regulatory Approval Risk

The Boston Scientific acquisition is a structural change but remains subject to antitrust, shareholder approval and other clearances. Regulatory or clearance delays, divestiture demands, or failed approvals could create prolonged uncertainty and affect execution and integration planning.

Penumbra Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Penumbra, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally. The company offers aspiration based thrombectomy systems and accessory devices, including revascularization device for mechanical thrombectomy, such as Penumbra System under the Penumbra RED, JET, ACE, 3D Revascularization Device, and Penumbra ENGINE brands, as well as components and accessories; neurovascular embolization coiling systems to treat patients with various sizes of aneurysms and other neurovascular lesions under the Penumbra Coil 400, POD400, PAC400, and Penumbra SMART Coil brand names; and neurovascular access systems designed to provide intracranial access for use in a range of neurovascular therapies under the Neuron, Neuron MAX, Select, BENCHMARK, BMX96, DDC, and PX SLIM brands. It also provides neurosurgical aspiration tools for the removal of tissue and fluids under the Artemis Neuro Evacuation Device brand; aspiration-based thrombectomy systems for vascular applications under the Indigo System brand; and detachable embolic coil systems for peripheral embolization under the Ruby Coil and Ruby LP brand names. In addition, the company offers microcatheter for the delivery of detachable coils and occlusion devices under the LANTERN brand; and detachable, microcatheter-deliverable occlusion devices designed primarily to occlude peripheral vessels under the POD (Penumbra Occlusion Device) brand, as well as immersive computer-based technologies and immersive therapeutics to promote health, motor function, and cognition under the Real Immersive System brand; and a complementary device for use with Ruby Coil and POD for vessel occlusion under the Packing Coil and Packing Coil LP brands. The company sells its products through direct sales organizations and distributors. Penumbra, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Alameda, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Penumbra generates revenue primarily through the sale of its medical devices, which are utilized by healthcare providers for various interventional procedures. The company has established a robust revenue model based on direct sales to hospitals and medical institutions, as well as partnerships with distributors in various regions. Key revenue streams include the sale of thrombectomy devices, embolization products, and other specialty medical devices. Additionally, Penumbra invests in research and development to create new products and enhancements, which helps to drive future sales. Strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and clinical institutions also contribute to its earnings by facilitating broader adoption of its technologies in clinical practice.

Penumbra Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue scaling with a meaningful 2025 profitability inflection (net margin ~12.7%) and improving gross margin (~67%). Low leverage supports flexibility, and operating/free cash flow improved in 2025, but prior earnings and cash-flow volatility keeps the score below top-tier.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled materially over the period (2020: ~$560M to 2025: ~$1.40B), and profitability has inflected meaningfully. Gross margin remains strong and improving (2025: ~67% vs. low-60%s historically), while net margin expanded sharply to ~12.7% in 2025 after being near breakeven in 2024 (~1.2%) and negative in 2022. The key weakness is earnings volatility year-to-year (notably 2024 margin compression vs. 2023), suggesting profitability can be sensitive to operating costs and mix even as top-line growth remains healthy.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively levered with low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.15 in 2025, improving from ~0.24 in 2022). Equity has grown meaningfully alongside asset growth, supporting financial flexibility. Return on equity improved substantially (2025: ~12.4% vs. ~1.2% in 2024 and negative in 2022), but the historical swings in returns indicate periods of weaker capital efficiency and execution risk if margins soften again.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow rose to ~$239M in 2025 (from ~$168M in 2024), and free cash flow increased to ~$175M with strong growth (~14.6% in 2025). Free cash flow is healthy relative to earnings (2025 free cash flow is ~73% of net income), indicating profits are translating into cash at a reasonable rate. The main drawback is the historical volatility—cash flow was negative in 2020 and 2022—so while the recent trend is favorable, consistency across cycles remains the key watch item.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.40B	1.19B	1.06B	847.13M	747.59M
Gross Profit	942.44M	755.00M	682.64M	535.21M	475.38M
EBITDA	189.25M	45.99M	108.65M	29.96M	7.84M
Net Income	177.69M	14.01M	90.95M	-2.00M	5.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.83B	1.53B	1.56B	1.37B	1.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	186.90M	340.13M	289.19M	188.03M	254.88M
Total Debt	219.70M	223.39M	234.34M	235.77M	173.55M
Total Liabilities	398.92M	382.25M	377.36M	372.03M	290.32M
Stockholders Equity	1.43B	1.15B	1.18B	998.86M	953.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	174.93M	147.30M	82.12M	-74.96M	-11.68M
Operating Cash Flow	238.66M	168.48M	97.33M	-55.66M	9.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-404.59M	77.62M	-16.08M	54.79M	-21.73M
Financing Cash Flow	26.53M	-87.01M	16.20M	11.62M	836.00K

Penumbra Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 341.94
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PEN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 341.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 343.36, above the 50-day MA of 333.47, and above the 200-day MA of 278.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PEN.

Penumbra Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GMED	80 Outperform	$12.37B	24.46	10.01%	―	11.75%	364.73%
PEN	71 Outperform	$13.32B	80.93	13.78%	―	14.61%	369.96%
LIVN	68 Neutral	$3.77B	-15.72	-19.24%	―	8.97%	-1024.86%
GKOS	60 Neutral	$6.92B	-36.96	-26.38%	―	30.38%	47.64%
IRTC	54 Neutral	$4.43B	-96.32	-36.57%	―	25.45%	66.62%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
PRCT	48 Neutral	$1.52B	-18.10	-24.89%	―	50.07%	21.22%

Penumbra Corporate Events

Penumbra Announces Strong Preliminary Revenue Growth for 2025

On January 14, 2026, Penumbra, Inc. entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Boston Scientific will acquire Penumbra through a merger of a Boston Scientific subsidiary into Penumbra, leaving Penumbra as a wholly owned subsidiary of Boston Scientific. At closing, each Penumbra common share will be converted into either 3.8721 Boston Scientific shares or $374 in cash, subject to shareholder elections and proration so that roughly 73% of Penumbra shares receive cash and 27% receive stock, with detailed treatment laid out for stock options and restricted stock units. The transaction, which is not subject to a financing condition, remains contingent on approval by Penumbra shareholders, antitrust and other regulatory clearances, effectiveness of Boston Scientific’s registration statement and NYSE listing approval for the new Boston Scientific shares; once completed, Penumbra’s securities will be delisted from the NYSE, and the agreement includes substantial reverse and standard termination fees tied mainly to competing bids, board recommendation changes and failure to obtain antitrust approvals. Separately, on January 15, 2026, Penumbra reported unaudited preliminary results indicating strong operational momentum for 2025, with fourth-quarter revenue of $383.0 million to $384.8 million, up about 21% to 22% year on year (over 23% excluding China), and full-year revenue of $1.401 billion to $1.403 billion, up about 17% to 18% (nearly 25% excluding China), supported by gross margins around 68% in the fourth quarter and 67% for the year and operating margins rising into the mid-teens, highlighting robust growth and profitability as the company moves toward integration with Boston Scientific.

The most recent analyst rating on (PEN) stock is a Buy with a $355.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Penumbra stock, see the PEN Stock Forecast page.