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Par Pacific Holdings (PARR)
NYSE:PARR

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) AI Stock Analysis

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PAPar Pacific Holdings
(NYSE:PARR)
58Neutral
Par Pacific Holdings' stock score reflects current financial challenges, with negative earnings and declining margins, offset by a strong balance sheet and operational strengths in logistics and retail segments. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, while valuation metrics suggest some potential undervaluation. The recent earnings call provides mixed insights, with strategic projects planned but also facing operational setbacks.
Positive Factors
Business segments
The strong contribution from less-cyclical Logistics and Retail businesses highlights the strength of PARR's portfolio.
Valuation
Par Pacific Holdings trades at a lower EV/EBITDA ratio compared to the peer average, indicating a potentially attractive valuation.
Negative Factors
Earnings decline
A steep decline in Rockies margins is contributing to a significant earnings decline.
Operational challenges
The operational hiccup at Wyoming will reduce rates and likely add to costs in the near term.

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Par Pacific Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. is a diversified energy company primarily engaged in the refining, distribution, and retail marketing of petroleum products. Headquartered in Houston, Texas, Par Pacific operates through three main segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The company owns and manages refineries, a network of retail gas stations, and logistics assets including pipelines and terminals, primarily in Hawaii, Washington, and Wyoming. Par Pacific focuses on optimizing its operations to efficiently supply fuel products to local markets, leveraging its strategic assets and market positions.
How the Company Makes MoneyPar Pacific Holdings generates revenue through its three main business segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. In the Refining segment, the company processes crude oil into various refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are sold to wholesale and commercial customers. The Retail segment operates a network of gas stations and convenience stores, selling fuel and convenience products directly to consumers. The Logistics segment supports these operations by managing pipelines, terminals, and storage facilities, enabling efficient transportation and distribution of oil and fuel products. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined products, retail fuel sales, and logistics services. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and customers, as well as the company's ability to adapt to market conditions, significantly contribute to its earnings.

Par Pacific Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Par Pacific Holdings faces financial challenges with negative net income and declining margins. Despite these issues, the company has a strong balance sheet with no debt and positive cash flows, offering financial flexibility. However, the decline in profitability and revenue growth are significant concerns that need addressing.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
The income statement shows volatility with a negative net income in the TTM period, contrasting with a profitable 2023. Gross profit margin has decreased significantly to 6.3% in TTM from 15.5% in 2023, indicating margin pressure. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a drop in TTM compared to 2023. Net profit margin turned negative at -0.4% in TTM, down from 8.9% in 2023, highlighting profitability challenges.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet indicates strong equity at $1.19 billion with no debt in TTM, improving the debt-to-equity ratio to 0. The equity ratio stands robust at 100% due to a significantly negative liability value, which may require further investigation. ROE dropped substantially in TTM due to negative net income, showing a decline from 54.6% in 2023.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows positive free cash flow in TTM at $77.2 million, albeit reduced from 2023. Operating cash flow is positive but has decreased, indicating reduced cash generation capability compared to 2023. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high due to negative net income, reflecting cash flow strength despite earnings pressure.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
7.97B8.23B7.32B4.71B3.12B
Gross Profit
741.72M1.27B846.00M277.37M87.14M
EBIT
47.63M680.01M437.90M-7.62M-318.00M
EBITDA
175.37M805.59M542.22M80.56M-271.81M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-33.32M728.64M364.19M-81.30M-409.09M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
191.92M279.11M490.93M112.22M68.31M
Total Assets
3.83B3.86B3.28B2.57B2.13B
Total Debt
458.84M1.02B870.63M960.98M1.08B
Net Debt
266.92M739.54M379.70M848.76M1.01B
Total Liabilities
2.64B2.53B2.64B2.30B1.89B
Stockholders Equity
1.19B1.34B644.54M265.70M246.27M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-51.76M496.88M399.58M-57.16M-100.74M
Operating Cash Flow
83.78M579.16M452.61M-27.62M-37.21M
Investing Cash Flow
-133.99M-659.04M-87.31M74.63M-63.46M
Financing Cash Flow
-36.96M-135.60M13.41M-1.09M42.56M

Par Pacific Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price13.18
Price Trends
50DMA
16.27
Negative
100DMA
16.51
Negative
200DMA
19.73
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.06
Positive
RSI
34.90
Neutral
STOCH
21.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PARR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.98, below the 50-day MA of 16.27, and below the 200-day MA of 19.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PARR.

Par Pacific Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
MPMPC
67
Neutral
$42.99B13.6316.33%2.52%-6.70%-57.84%
VLVLO
63
Neutral
$39.95B14.7910.86%3.42%-10.35%-65.68%
58
Neutral
$721.58M3.02-2.64%-3.13%-105.02%
57
Neutral
$8.34B5.35-5.98%7.29%0.20%-69.45%
CVCVI
55
Neutral
$1.82B259.480.90%11.07%-17.69%-99.09%
DKDK
47
Neutral
$891.44M-108.21%7.05%-28.68%-4373.94%
PBPBF
46
Neutral
$2.45B-8.87%4.95%-13.59%-127.47%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings
13.18
-22.74
-63.31%
CVI
CVR Energy
18.06
-13.66
-43.06%
DK
Delek US Holdings
14.26
-11.00
-43.55%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
137.55
-40.08
-22.56%
VLO
Valero Energy
126.85
-19.35
-13.24%
PBF
PBF Energy
21.22
-27.18
-56.16%

Par Pacific Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 25, 2025 | % Change Since: -14.58% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong operational performance in logistics and retail segments, successful share repurchase, and positive market conditions in certain regions. However, challenges included a significant incident at the Wyoming facility, fourth-quarter financial losses, and high production costs in the Wyoming segment.
Highlights
Record Logistics and Retail Adjusted EBITDA
The company achieved record logistics and retail adjusted EBITDA, highlighting strong operational performance despite a challenging refining market.
Retail Segment Growth
In-store gross margins grew 11% versus 2023, and fuel volumes expanded, driven by strong same-store sales results in the legacy portfolio.
Successful Share Repurchase
The company repurchased nearly five million shares or 9% of outstanding shares at attractive prices, demonstrating strong capital allocation.
Low-Cost, High-Return Projects
The company is executing several key projects, including the Montana FCC and Alky turnaround and the Hawaii SAF unit startup, aimed at driving enhanced earnings power.
Improvement in Washington and Montana Margins
The Washington index improved by approximately $7 per barrel compared to January, and the Montana index in February improved by over $10 per barrel compared to January.
Lowlights
Wyoming Facility Incident
An operational incident at the Wyoming facility resulted in damage to the crude heater furnace, leading to a temporary shutdown and a planned ramp-up to full operations by Memorial Day.
Fourth-Quarter Financial Loss
Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $11 million, with an adjusted earnings loss of $43 million or $0.79 per share.
Refining Segment EBITDA Loss
The refining segment reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $22 million in the fourth quarter.
High Production Costs in Wyoming
Wyoming's throughput was 14,000 barrels per day with high production costs of $11.49 per barrel due to scheduled routine maintenance.
Company Guidance
During Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s fourth-quarter earnings call for 2024, several key metrics were highlighted to provide guidance for the upcoming year. The company reported a 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $239 million and an adjusted net income, reflecting a strong operational performance with record refining throughput and improvements in logistics and retail segments. Hawaii's refining business unit was notably successful. The company faced an operational incident at its Wyoming facility, targeting a return to full operations by Memorial Day. Par Pacific plans to execute several key projects in 2025, including a turnaround at the Montana FCC and Alky units, the restart of Wyoming units, and the startup of Hawaii's SAF unit in the latter half of the year. The company achieved a 10% increase in 2024 adjusted EBITDA compared to 2023, with in-store gross margins growing by 11%. The refining segment reported a fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $22 million, while Hawaii's throughput was strong at 83,000 barrels per day. The firm repurchased nearly five million shares, representing 9% of outstanding shares, and maintained total liquidity of $614 million. During the Q&A, guidance on share repurchase authorization and strategic objectives were discussed, emphasizing a dynamic approach to capital allocation.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.