Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.01B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: -10.11%
• EPS Growth: -7.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,787
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 1.17
• Shares Outstanding: 49,003,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,565,829
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,249,868
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.24
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.95
• 1Y Price Target: $52.80
• Price Target Upside: -13.99% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.58
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.57B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(14.03% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (return to profitability, strong free cash flow, and better leverage) and an attractive low P/E valuation. Technicals support the view with a strong uptrend, though momentum is stretched. Earnings call commentary adds confidence via liquidity, debt reduction, and buybacks, but near-term refining margin softness and operational cost pressures cap the upside.

Positive Factors

Stronger Balance Sheet

Material deleveraging and a stronger equity base enhance financial resilience across cycles. Lower leverage increases flexibility for capital allocation, supports continued buybacks or reinvestment, reduces default risk and interest exposure, and improves the company’s ability to fund turnarounds or renewables projects.

Improved Cash Generation

Sustained positive free cash flow provides durable funding for debt paydown, maintenance and growth capex, and shareholder returns without relying on external financing. Strong cash conversion increases strategic optionality and cushions earnings volatility inherent in refining cycles.

Operational & Segment Strength

Consistently high system throughput and record logistics/retail results indicate competitive asset utilization and diversified earnings streams. Fee-based logistics and retail margins smooth refinery cyclicality and provide repeatable cash flow and regional market presence over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Trend

A multiyear top-line contraction reduces scale benefits, constrains margin leverage, and increases dependency on non-refining segments to sustain profitability. If persistent, declining revenue can impair fixed-cost coverage, restrict reinvestment capacity, and raise execution risk in cyclical troughs.

High & Variable Site Costs

Wide cost dispersion across sites signals operational inefficiencies and exposure to localized outages or maintenance. Persistently higher per-barrel costs at certain assets compress system margins, require targeted capex or operating fixes, and reduce the resiliency of consolidated profitability.

Refining Margin Cyclicality & Outages

Refining margins remain highly cyclical and sensitive to outages; margin troughs materially reduce earnings and cash flow. Operational interruptions and volatile crack spreads complicate planning, increase working-capital swings, and can delay returns on capex tied to throughput optimization.

Par Pacific Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. owns and operates energy and infrastructure businesses. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates three refineries that produces ultra-low sulfur diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuel, distillate, asphalt, low sulfur fuel oil, and other associated refined products primarily for consumption in Hawaii, Pacific Northwest, Wyoming, and South Dakota. The Retail segment operates 119 fuel retail outlets, which sell merchandise, such as soft drinks, prepared foods, and other sundries in Hawaii under the Hele, 76, and nomnom brands; and gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise in Washington and Idaho under the Cenex, nomnom, and Zip Trip brand names. The Logistics segment owns and operates terminals, pipelines, a single point mooring, and trucking operations to distribute refined products throughout the island of Oahu, Maui, Hawaii, Molokai, and Kauai. It also leases marine vessels; owns and operates a crude oil pipeline gathering system, a refined products pipeline, storage facilities, and loading racks in Wyoming; and a jet fuel storage facility and pipeline that serves Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota. In addition, this segment owns and operates a marine terminal, a unit train-capable rail loading terminal, storage facilities, a truck rack, and a proprietary pipeline that serves Joint Base Lewis McChord. The company was formerly known as Par Petroleum Corporation and changed its name to Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. in October 2015. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Par Pacific primarily makes money by producing, distributing, and selling refined petroleum products (e.g., gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) and related services across its integrated system. 1) Refining (manufacturing margin): The company buys crude oil and other feedstocks and processes them at its refineries into higher-value refined products. Revenue is generated from selling these refined products into local and regional markets. Profitability in this segment is driven largely by the “crack spread” (the difference between the market value of refined products and the cost of crude/feedstocks), refinery utilization rates and reliability, product mix (e.g., gasoline vs. distillates vs. jet), and operating costs (energy, labor, maintenance). Regulatory programs (e.g., renewable fuel and low-carbon regimes) can also affect costs and realized margins depending on compliance position and market prices. 2) Logistics (fee-based and margin-based services): Par Pacific earns revenue by moving, storing, and handling crude oil and refined products through terminals, pipelines, marine/rail/truck infrastructure, and other midstream/logistics assets that support its refineries and customers. Earnings here can include throughput, storage, and handling fees as well as margins on certain supply and distribution activities. Volumes (throughput), contracted utilization, and regional fuel demand and supply conditions are key drivers. 3) Retail (fuel and convenience margins): The company sells motor fuels to end consumers through retail stations (company-operated and/or supplied dealer sites). Revenue comes from (a) fuel sales, where profitability is tied to per-gallon retail fuel margin and volumes, and (b) in-store convenience merchandise and other services where applicable, which can contribute higher gross margins than fuel. Retail performance depends on traffic/volumes, competitive pricing, local demand, and merchandising execution. 4) Wholesale marketing (distribution margins): Par Pacific sells refined products and fuels to wholesale customers (e.g., commercial, industrial, aviation, and dealer channels). Revenue and earnings are influenced by volumes, market-based pricing differentials, and the company’s ability to source and deliver product efficiently through its logistics footprint. Material factors influencing earnings across the model include commodity price and crack-spread volatility, regional supply/demand balances (particularly in the markets where it operates), refinery outages or turnaround timing, transportation constraints, and regulatory compliance costs/credits. Specific partnership details: null

Par Pacific Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

2025 shows a clear rebound: profitability improved sharply (net margin ~4.9% vs. a loss in 2024), free cash flow turned strongly positive (~$296M), and leverage improved meaningfully (debt shown as 0 in the provided balance sheet scoring context). Offsets are two years of declining revenue (down ~25% in 2025) and cyclical volatility; the balance sheet trend also notes potential data consistency concerns (unusually low 2025 total assets).

Income Statement

Profitability rebounded sharply in 2025 after a weak 2024: net margin improved from -0.4% (2024) to ~4.9% (2025) and operating profitability strengthened meaningfully. However, revenue has been declining for two consecutive years (down ~25% in 2025 after a slight decline in 2024), showing a less supportive top-line environment and higher cyclicality. Margins are solid versus the loss year, but remain below the peak profitability seen in 2023.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved dramatically by 2025, with total debt shown as 0 and debt-to-equity at 0.0x versus 1.3x in 2024 and higher levels earlier in the cycle. Equity also increased versus prior years, supporting a stronger capital base. The main caution is data consistency: 2025 total assets appear unusually low relative to prior years, so while the deleveraging signal is very positive, the asset trend warrants caution when interpreting the year-to-year balance sheet change.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened materially in 2025: operating cash flow rose to ~$445M and free cash flow turned strongly positive (~$296M) after negative free cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow covered about two-thirds of net income in 2025, indicating earnings are supported by cash, though conversion is not as strong as 2022–2023 when free cash flow more closely tracked profits. Results also show volatility across years, consistent with a cyclical refining business.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.46B	7.97B	8.23B	7.32B	4.71B
Gross Profit	1.35B	741.72M	1.27B	846.00M	277.37M
EBITDA	704.58M	175.37M	805.59M	532.96M	80.46M
Net Income	369.39M	-33.32M	728.64M	364.19M	-81.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.07B	3.83B	3.86B	3.28B	2.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	164.11M	191.92M	279.11M	490.93M	112.22M
Total Debt	1.39B	1.57B	1.02B	870.63M	960.98M
Total Liabilities	2.52B	2.64B	2.53B	2.64B	2.30B
Stockholders Equity	1.51B	1.19B	1.34B	644.54M	265.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	296.46M	-51.76M	496.88M	399.58M	-57.16M
Operating Cash Flow	445.34M	83.78M	579.16M	452.61M	-27.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-142.78M	-133.99M	-659.04M	-87.31M	74.63M
Financing Cash Flow	-330.36M	-36.96M	-135.60M	13.41M	-1.09M

Par Pacific Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 61.39
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PARR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 61.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.92, above the 50-day MA of 43.00, and above the 200-day MA of 36.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.44 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PARR.

Par Pacific Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PARR	78 Outperform	$3.01B	4.84	28.59%	―	-10.11%	-7.00%
SUN	68 Neutral	$13.26B	13.57	7.27%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
DK	62 Neutral	$2.65B	5.68	-14.06%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%
DINO	62 Neutral	$10.86B	14.84	6.25%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
PBF	57 Neutral	$5.77B	-19.51	-3.05%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CVI	47 Neutral	$3.40B	94.69	4.13%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%