Ranpak Holdings Corp. Class A (PACK)
NYSE:PACK
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Ranpak Holdings
(NYSE:PACK)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(57.77% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/02/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (ongoing net losses, sharp gross-margin compression, and inconsistent free cash flow). Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend but appear overbought, raising near-term volatility risk. The earnings call adds a modest positive tilt due to growth/EBITDA guidance and improving automation trajectory, while valuation is limited by negative earnings and no indicated dividend support.
Positive Factors
Recurring Consumables Revenue
Ranpak's business model includes sale of paper consumables to installed systems, creating repeat, usage-linked revenue. Installed-base driven consumable demand produces predictable cash flows and customer stickiness, supporting durable revenue and service cross-sell over months and years.
Negative Factors
Gross Margin Compression
A sustained drop in gross margin reflects adverse mix, pricing pressure, input costs and automation investment. Lower gross margins reduce operating leverage and limit the firm's ability to fund growth and delever, meaning profitability restoration depends on structural margin recovery.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring Consumables Revenue
Ranpak's business model includes sale of paper consumables to installed systems, creating repeat, usage-linked revenue. Installed-base driven consumable demand produces predictable cash flows and customer stickiness, supporting durable revenue and service cross-sell over months and years.
Read all positive factors
Ranpak Holdings (PACK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$516.69M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)553.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.08
Revenue Growth8.06%
EPS Growth-72.92%
CountryUS
Employees800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.44
Shares Outstanding85,544,876
10 Day Avg. Volume782,317
30 Day Avg. Volume553,278
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.16
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)1.15
P/FCF Ratio-63.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.63Price Target Upside85.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$423.24M
Ranpak Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ranpak Holdings Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provide product protection solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains in North America, Europe, and Asia. The company offers protective packaging solutions, such as void-fill protec...
How the Company Makes Money
Ranpak primarily makes money by selling (1) protective packaging consumables and (2) packaging systems (equipment), with consumables generally representing the recurring portion of the model. The company installs or places its paper-converting pac...
Ranpak Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear operational momentum—notably strong North America performance, accelerating automation revenue and meaningful strategic partnerships—with near-term margin and regional demand headwinds. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (revenue and EBITDA growth ranges) and specific plans to improve gross margins, drive scale, grow automation, and reduce leverage. Key risks include Europe demand sensitivity, input-cost volatility tied to recent geopolitical events, and the need to convert automation backlog into profitable growth. On balance, positive long-term catalysts and forward guidance modestly outweigh the current profitability and regional challenges.Positive Updates
North America Volume and Revenue Strength
North America volume growth of ~5.5% in Q4 and ~14% for full year; Q4 sales up ~5.8% and full-year net revenue growth in the region of ~14%, driven by strong e-commerce demand and large enterprise accounts.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Gross Profit Pressure
On a constant currency basis, Adjusted EBITDA declined 10.3% in Q4 (or down 1.2% excluding warrant impact) and full-year Adjusted EBITDA fell 8.5% CC (or 2.4% excluding warrants). Gross profit declined ~16% CC in Q4 (would have declined ~10.6% excluding $2.3M non-cash warrants) and ~9% CC for the full year (approx. 5.3% excluding $5M warrants).
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
North America Volume and Revenue Strength
North America volume growth of ~5.5% in Q4 and ~14% for full year; Q4 sales up ~5.8% and full-year net revenue growth in the region of ~14%, driven by strong e-commerce demand and large enterprise accounts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ranpak guided 2026 net revenue growth of 5.0%–12.7% on a constant‑currency basis (implying $415M–$445M at a €/$1.16 spot) and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 5.4%–19.9% (implying $83.5M–$95M), with automation expected to grow 30%–50% (potentially topping $60M in 2026 and turning positive on an Adjusted EBITDA basis, with a longer‑term $100M target), PPS volumes expected to be low‑ to high‑single‑digit, and guidance reflecting a $5M–$7M non‑cash reduction from warrant expense; management said automation could add roughly 3–5 points of growth and cautioned the range was conservatively adjusted for recent Middle East developments. At the midpoint they estimated roughly $15M of free cash flow after ~ $37.5M CapEx, ~$34M cash interest, $3M–$4M cash taxes and ~ $5M working‑capital use; year‑end cash was $63M, reported net leverage was 4.4x, and the target leverage is 2.5x–3.0x over 18–24 months.Ranpak Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 405.00M | 395.00M | 368.90M | 336.30M | 326.50M | 383.90M |
| Gross Profit | 98.70M | 94.70M | 139.80M | 123.30M | 99.60M | 148.90M |
| EBITDA | 48.30M | 42.40M | 63.60M | 55.40M | 48.70M | 87.60M |
| Net Income | -37.60M | -38.30M | -21.50M | -27.10M | -41.40M | -2.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.11B | 1.12B | 1.10B | 1.12B | 1.13B | 1.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 48.50M | 63.00M | 76.10M | 62.00M | 62.80M | 103.90M |
| Total Debt | 429.70M | 430.00M | 431.20M | 428.80M | 399.00M | 411.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 582.60M | 590.00M | 556.10M | 550.70M | 520.70M | 577.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 524.50M | 534.90M | 548.10M | 572.00M | 612.80M | 636.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.80M | -7.20M | 8.30M | -2.70M | -44.70M | -1.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 28.30M | 23.10M | 41.40M | 52.60M | 1.10M | 54.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -43.60M | -32.80M | -32.50M | -52.40M | -37.90M | -69.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.50M | -7.00M | 1.80M | -1.80M | -4.50M | 72.00M |
Ranpak Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
4.12
Price Trends
4.36
Positive
4.90
Positive
4.96
Positive
Market Momentum
0.47
Positive
56.55
Neutral
6.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PACK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.41, below the 50-day MA of 4.36, and below the 200-day MA of 4.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PACK.
Ranpak Holdings Risk Analysis
Ranpak Holdings disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ranpak Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ranpak Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $825.89M | 14.35 | 14.53% | 2.80% | -6.26% | 149.36% | |
65 Neutral | $4.75B | 19.61 | 30.14% | 4.33% | 17.41% | 167.71% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $2.91B | -17.15 | 8.38% | 2.91% | -0.17% | -55.17% | |
52 Neutral | $516.69M | -7.42 | -7.04% | ― | 8.06% | -72.92% | |
42 Neutral | $1.37B | -5.50 | -14.49% | ― | -1.61% | 3.42% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PACK
Ranpak Holdings
6.04
2.67
79.23%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.