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Ranpak Holdings Corp. Class A (PACK)
NYSE:PACK
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Ranpak Holdings
(NYSE:PACK)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-13.04% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, 2025 revenue decline, and margin pressure) and a bearish technical setup (price well below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting this, the latest earnings call included constructive 2026 growth/EBITDA guidance and automation momentum, but leverage and regional/macro cost risks limit upside confidence.
Positive Factors
Recurring consumables revenue
Ranpak's business model includes recurring sales of branded kraft paper consumables tied to installed systems, creating predictable repeat revenue and customer stickiness. Over months, consumable-driven volume provides durable cash inflows and cross-sell opportunities that support long-term revenue stability.
Automation revenue momentum
Automation is scaling materially and reached quarterly adjusted-EBITDA break-even, demonstrating the segment's path to profitability. Management targets 30%–50% growth in 2026 and longer-term >$100M automation revenue, which can sustainably lift consolidated margins and recurring service revenue over 2–5 years.
Large strategic partnerships
Deep partnerships with large retailers and a Medline collaboration provide durable pipeline visibility and scale potential. These relationships validate product-market fit, increase cross-selling and multi-year contract opportunity, and can materially de-risk growth execution over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses & 2025 revenue decline
Ranpak has exhibited inconsistent top-line trends and sustained net losses, including a sharp ~14% revenue decline in 2025 and negative net margins. Continued operating losses erode equity, limit reinvestment, and increase the need for external financing, constraining durable financial flexibility.
Elevated net leverage
Reported net leverage near 4.4x is high for the profile and requires material deleveraging to reach target levels. Elevated leverage increases interest and refinancing risk, may limit investment in automation scaling, and forces prioritization of cash for debt reduction rather than growth initiatives over the next 18–24 months.
Input-cost & regional demand exposure
The company is exposed to recycled-paper and European gas price volatility and softer Europe/APAC demand. These structural cost and regional-demand headwinds can compress gross margins and prolong recovery, making sustainable margin improvement and predictable cash flow generation harder to achieve.
Ranpak Holdings (PACK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$292.29M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)553.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.95
Revenue Growth9.54%
EPS Growth-81.46%
CountryUS
Employees800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding84,721,375
10 Day Avg. Volume782,317
30 Day Avg. Volume553,278
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.16
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)1.15
P/FCF Ratio-54.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.63Price Target Upside121.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$433.67M
Ranpak Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRanpak Holdings Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provide product protection solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains in North America, Europe, and Asia. The company offers protective packaging solutions, such as void-fill protective systems that convert paper to fill empty spaces in secondary packages and protect objects under the FillPak brand; cushioning protective systems, which convert paper into cushioning pads under the PadPak brand; and wrapping protective systems that create pads or paper mesh to wrap and protect fragile items, as well as to line boxes and provide separation when shipping various objects under the WrapPak, Geami, and ReadyRoll brands. The company's products also include line automation products, which help end users automate the void filling and box closure processes after product packing is complete. It sells its products to end users primarily through a distributor network, and directly to select end users. Ranpak Holdings Corp. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Concord Township, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyRanpak primarily makes money by selling (1) protective packaging consumables and (2) packaging systems (equipment), with consumables generally representing the recurring portion of the model. The company installs or places its paper-converting packaging systems at customer sites (e.g., packaging stations in warehouses/fulfillment centers). Those machines convert kraft paper into protective packaging formats during order fulfillment. After the system is deployed, customers repeatedly purchase Ranpak-branded paper consumables to run through the machines, creating an ongoing revenue stream tied to customer packaging volumes and throughput. In addition to consumables, Ranpak generates revenue from the sale of the packaging systems themselves and from services related to those systems (e.g., support/maintenance and related offerings); if specific service revenue details are not available, null.
Ranpak Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear operational momentum—notably strong North America performance, accelerating automation revenue and meaningful strategic partnerships—with near-term margin and regional demand headwinds. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (revenue and EBITDA growth ranges) and specific plans to improve gross margins, drive scale, grow automation, and reduce leverage. Key risks include Europe demand sensitivity, input-cost volatility tied to recent geopolitical events, and the need to convert automation backlog into profitable growth. On balance, positive long-term catalysts and forward guidance modestly outweigh the current profitability and regional challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
North America Volume and Revenue Strength
North America volume growth of ~5.5% in Q4 and ~14% for full year; Q4 sales up ~5.8% and full-year net revenue growth in the region of ~14%, driven by strong e-commerce demand and large enterprise accounts.
Automation Revenue Momentum
Automation revenue ~ $40M in 2025 (north of $40M reported), achieving ~35% full-year growth and nearly 40% growth in the quarter on a constant currency basis. Automation broke even on an Adjusted EBITDA basis in Q4 and has a strong order book entering 2026.
Ambitious 2026 Automation Guidance
Company expects automation revenue growth of 30%–50% in 2026 (potentially > $60M) and to turn automation positive on an Adjusted EBITDA basis; reiterates longer-term objective to surpass $100M in automation revenue.
Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated net revenue increased ~2.2% year-over-year in Q4 on a constant currency basis (or ~4.4% excluding warrant impacts). Full-year net revenue rose approximately 4.7%–5.0% on a constant currency basis (or ~6.1% excluding ~$5M warrant-related headwind).
Strategic Customer Partnerships
Strengthened relationships with two of the world’s largest e-commerce/retail leaders and a major collaboration with Medline for automated box customization; company expects these relationships to contribute materially over coming years (>$1B cumulative revenue opportunity over 8–10 years).
Technology and Operational Investment
Invested > $20M in cloud-native, AI-ready technology infrastructure since 2022; pursuing AI, robotics and vision systems integration that management says will enable productivity gains and cross-selling of automation.
Improved Liquidity and Disciplined CapEx
Year-end cash balance of $63M with no revolver draws; reported net leverage 4.4x LTM and stated target to reach 2.5x–3.0x within 18–24 months. FY2025 CapEx $30.3M, down from $33.1M in 2024 and down 45% vs. 2023.
2026 Financial Guidance
2026 guidance: net revenue growth 5.0%–12.7% (constant currency) and Adjusted EBITDA growth 5.4%–19.9%; implies net revenue $415M–$445M and Adjusted EBITDA $83.5M–$95M at EUR1.16 spot rate. Management also provided free cash flow expectations (~$15M at midpoint after CapEx, interest, taxes and working capital).
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Gross Profit Pressure
On a constant currency basis, Adjusted EBITDA declined 10.3% in Q4 (or down 1.2% excluding warrant impact) and full-year Adjusted EBITDA fell 8.5% CC (or 2.4% excluding warrants). Gross profit declined ~16% CC in Q4 (would have declined ~10.6% excluding $2.3M non-cash warrants) and ~9% CC for the full year (approx. 5.3% excluding $5M warrants).
Automation Drag on Profitability in 2025
Although automation revenue grew materially, automation was a ~negative $6M contribution to Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 (company did reach quarterly break-even in Q4 but the full-year impact was a drag).
European and APAC Revenue Weakness
Combined Europe & APAC revenue decreased ~1.4% in Q4 CC and declined ~2.7% for the full year CC; Europe faced unfavorable mix, increased rebate activity, and muted holiday strength—leading to a slight top-line miss versus expectations.
Input Cost and Macro Uncertainty
Exposure to energy/paper input cost volatility (recycled paper and European gas markets) and heightened uncertainty from recent Middle East events (Dutch TTF gas elevated toward ~€50/MWh) could pressure margins and demand, particularly in Europe.
Leverage Profile Remains Elevated
Reported net leverage at year-end was 4.4x LTM; management target is 2.5x–3.0x, implying material deleveraging will be required (management expects to achieve over 18–24 months).
Quarterly Top-Line Miss and Timing Slippage
Management missed the top-line slightly in Q4 due in part to a few automation project milestone delays pushed into Q1 and softer industrial activity, contributing to hitting the low end of Adjusted EBITDA guidance rather than the midpoint/top.
Company Guidance
Ranpak guided 2026 net revenue growth of 5.0%–12.7% on a constant‑currency basis (implying $415M–$445M at a €/$1.16 spot) and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 5.4%–19.9% (implying $83.5M–$95M), with automation expected to grow 30%–50% (potentially topping $60M in 2026 and turning positive on an Adjusted EBITDA basis, with a longer‑term $100M target), PPS volumes expected to be low‑ to high‑single‑digit, and guidance reflecting a $5M–$7M non‑cash reduction from warrant expense; management said automation could add roughly 3–5 points of growth and cautioned the range was conservatively adjusted for recent Middle East developments. At the midpoint they estimated roughly $15M of free cash flow after ~ $37.5M CapEx, ~$34M cash interest, $3M–$4M cash taxes and ~ $5M working‑capital use; year‑end cash was $63M, reported net leverage was 4.4x, and the target leverage is 2.5x–3.0x over 18–24 months.Ranpak Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are pressured by persistent net losses, a sharp revenue decline in 2025 (~-14%), and compressed EBITDA margins. Positives include improved/stable gross margin in the high-30% range and generally positive operating cash flow with free cash flow turning positive again, but cash-flow consistency and rising leverage reduce flexibility.Income Statement
Revenue growth has been inconsistent and recently turned negative (down ~14% in 2025), reversing the modest growth seen in 2023–2024. Profitability is a key weakness: net losses persisted across the period and widened in 2025 (net margin about -11.5%), while EBITDA margin compressed sharply in 2025 versus 2024. A positive is that gross margin improved from 2022 lows and remained relatively stable around the high-30% range in 2024–2025, but operating profitability remains challenged.38
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is moderate for the profile, with debt-to-equity generally around ~0.65–0.83, but it has trended higher again by 2025 while equity has gradually declined from 2021–2025. Returns on equity are consistently negative, reflecting ongoing net losses and limiting balance-sheet compounding. Overall, the capital structure looks manageable, but continued losses and rising leverage reduce financial flexibility.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is mixed. Operating cash flow remained positive in most years and recovered strongly after a very weak 2022, but it declined meaningfully in 2024–2025. Free cash flow has been volatile—negative in 2021–2023, modestly positive in 2024, and improved to positive in 2025—yet the year-over-year free cash flow trend is unstable. Cash flow has generally outpaced reported earnings due to net losses, which helps near-term liquidity, but consistency remains a concern.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 395.00M | 368.90M | 336.30M | 326.50M | 383.90M |
| Gross Profit | 94.70M | 139.80M | 123.30M | 99.60M | 148.90M |
| EBITDA | 42.40M | 63.60M | 55.40M | 48.70M | 87.60M |
| Net Income | -38.30M | -21.50M | -27.10M | -41.40M | -2.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.12B | 1.10B | 1.12B | 1.13B | 1.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 63.00M | 76.10M | 62.00M | 62.80M | 103.90M |
| Total Debt | 430.00M | 431.20M | 428.80M | 399.00M | 411.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 590.00M | 556.10M | 550.70M | 520.70M | 577.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 534.90M | 548.10M | 572.00M | 612.80M | 636.20M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -8.40M | 8.30M | -2.70M | -44.70M | -1.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 23.10M | 41.40M | 52.60M | 1.10M | 54.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.80M | -32.50M | -52.40M | -37.90M | -69.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.00M | 1.80M | -1.80M | -4.50M | 72.00M |
Ranpak Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
3.45
Price Trends
5.23
Negative
5.21
Negative
4.78
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.55
Positive
27.63
Positive
7.13
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PACK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.69, below the 50-day MA of 5.23, and below the 200-day MA of 4.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.63 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.13 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PACK.
Ranpak Holdings Risk Analysis
Ranpak Holdings disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ranpak Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ranpak Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.30B | 10.96 | 32.44% | 4.33% | 8.31% | -99.39% | |
64 Neutral | $778.36M | 20.03 | 12.22% | 2.80% | 0.26% | 78.05% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $6.17B | 12.04 | 48.39% | 1.94% | -1.22% | -0.76% | |
58 Neutral | $2.93B | 15.73 | 13.67% | 2.91% | -3.93% | -27.37% | |
49 Neutral | $1.60B | -17.57 | -10.38% | ― | -2.82% | 65.31% | |
46 Neutral | $292.29M | -11.89 | -7.11% | ― | 9.54% | -81.46% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.