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Ranpak Holdings Corp. Class A (PACK)
NYSE:PACK
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Ranpak Holdings
(NYSE:PACK)
51Neutral
Positive Factors
E-commerce Growth
Ranpak Holdings Corp. is benefiting from an inflection in volumes on a year-over-year basis with encouraging progress in e-commerce.
Financial Recovery
Ranpak is on a path to recover towards previous peak EBITDA levels.
Market Expansion
The growth in North America is reflective of accelerated adoption of paper packaging across e-commerce, including Amazon, with incremental momentum likely throughout 2H24.
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Leverage
Balance sheet leverage remains elevated, with the company also exposed to industrial end-markets that are more susceptible to the macroeconomic backdrop.
Investment Rating
Investment rating is lowered to Neutral due to a preference towards defensive stocks.
Market Environment
The base operating environment remains sluggish, weighed upon by weaker industrial and consumer end-markets, along with a sequential increase in inflation.
Ranpak Holdings (PACK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$453.17M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)527.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth9.69%
EPS Growth31.57%
CountryUS
Employees800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength54
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.23
Shares Outstanding83,609,780
10 Day Avg. Volume407,277
30 Day Avg. Volume527,182
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.28
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)18.20
P/FCF Ratio25.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.50Price Target Upside120.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Ranpak Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRanpak Holdings Corp. (PACK) is a leading provider of environmentally sustainable, paper-based packaging solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains. The company specializes in protective packaging systems that replace traditional plastic and foam materials. Its core products include cushioning, void-fill, wrapping, and protective packaging systems designed to safeguard products during shipping and handling. Ranpak operates globally, serving a wide range of industries including electronics, automotive, and consumer goods.
How the Company Makes MoneyRanpak makes money primarily through the sale of its paper-based packaging systems and consumables. The company generates revenue from selling equipment that dispenses and processes paper packaging materials as well as from the recurring sales of paper consumables used within these systems. Key revenue streams include direct sales to businesses, long-term contracts with major e-commerce and industrial clients, and partnerships with distributors worldwide. Ranpak's focus on sustainability and the increasing demand for eco-friendly packaging solutions are significant factors contributing to its growth and profitability.
Ranpak Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ranpak Holdings faces challenges in sustaining profitability, with a history of negative net income despite maintaining a strong gross profit margin. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but declining equity, which could affect future financial flexibility. Cash flow improvements are a positive sign, indicating potential for operational stability. The company needs to focus on improving cost management and enhancing revenue growth to strengthen its financial position.Income Statement
Ranpak Holdings has seen fluctuating revenue, with a decline from 2021 to 2024. The gross profit margin for 2024 is approximately 44.3%, which is strong, but the company has struggled with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and net income. The net profit margin remained negative, indicating ongoing challenges in cost management and profitability. Despite a positive EBITDA margin of 12.7% in 2024, the overall financial health is impacted by negative earnings.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79 in 2024, indicating manageable leverage levels. However, the company has seen a decline in stockholders' equity over the years, which is concerning. The equity ratio is approximately 49.6%, suggesting a balanced reliance on equity financing. The decrease in total assets and equity could pose risks to financial stability.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis highlights positive operating cash flow of $41.4 million in 2024, indicating decent cash generation from operations. The company improved its free cash flow from negative to $41.4 million, a positive turnaround from 2023. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not ideal due to negative net income, but cash flow from operations is a positive sign for liquidity.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 315.50M | 336.30M | 326.50M | 383.90M | 298.20M | Gross Profit |
| 86.40M | 123.30M | 99.60M | 148.90M | 122.60M | EBIT |
| -12.80M | -7.50M | -38.20M | 12.20M | 11.70M | EBITDA |
| 70.20M | 55.40M | 31.70M | 87.60M | 79.30M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -21.50M | -27.10M | -41.40M | -2.80M | -23.40M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 76.10M | 62.00M | 62.80M | 103.90M | 48.50M | Total Assets |
| 1.10B | 1.12B | 1.13B | 1.21B | 1.13B | Total Debt |
| 431.20M | 428.80M | 399.00M | 408.10M | 433.20M | Net Debt |
| 355.10M | 366.80M | 336.20M | 304.20M | 384.70M | Total Liabilities |
| 556.10M | 550.70M | 520.70M | 577.20M | 610.60M | Stockholders Equity |
| 548.10M | 572.00M | 612.80M | 636.20M | 522.90M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 8.30M | -2.70M | -44.70M | -1.40M | 30.60M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 41.40M | 52.60M | 700.00K | 54.30M | 63.80M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -32.50M | -52.40M | -37.50M | -69.80M | -34.50M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 1.80M | -1.80M | -4.50M | 72.00M | -1.60M |
Ranpak Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
5.21
Price Trends
6.55
Negative
6.85
Negative
6.73
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.36
Positive
31.98
Neutral
16.13
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PACK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.75, below the 50-day MA of 6.55, and below the 200-day MA of 6.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.13 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PACK.
Ranpak Holdings Risk Analysis
Ranpak Holdings disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ranpak Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ranpak Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $17.95B | 22.38 | 19.03% | 2.50% | 7.45% | 5.26% | |
68 Neutral | $4.73B | 29.03 | 6.42% | 4.34% | -6.93% | -65.66% | |
67 Neutral | $4.21B | 15.66 | 45.91% | 2.75% | -1.75% | -21.15% | |
66 Neutral | $28.07B | 33.92 | 6.74% | 3.45% | -1.57% | 84.85% | |
65 Neutral | $7.87B | 12.16 | 22.72% | 1.56% | -6.59% | -7.81% | |
59 Neutral | $12.17B | 11.04 | -1.10% | 3.77% | 1.26% | -19.70% | |
51 Neutral | $453.17M | ― | -3.34% | ― | 9.69% | 31.57% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
PACK
Ranpak Holdings
5.21
-2.85
-35.36%
GPK
Graphic Packaging
26.30
-1.52
-5.46%
IP
International Paper Co
54.46
16.83
44.72%
PKG
Packaging
201.36
17.30
9.40%
SEE
Sealed Air
29.07
-3.93
-11.91%
SON
Sonoco Products
47.88
-6.79
-12.42%
Ranpak Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 6, 2025 | % Change Since: -18.85% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a positive sentiment overall, with significant achievements in revenue growth, automation, and strategic partnerships. While there were challenges in Europe and short-term margin pressures, the company's strong performance in North America and focus on deleveraging and innovation suggest a strong outlook.Highlights
Strong Year-End Performance
Ranpak delivered its best quarter of the year and the second-best quarterly revenue in its history, driven by a strong e-commerce-led holiday season in North America with double-digit volume growth.
Automation Revenue Growth
Automation revenue grew by more than 40% in 2024 and is expected to grow another 50% in 2025, indicating strong momentum in the automation segment.
North America Sales Surge
Sales in North America increased by 36% in Q4 with volumes up nearly 40%, making it the highest net revenue quarter ever for the region.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA increased 8% for the quarter and 14% for the year, achieving the higher end of the guidance range.
Successful Refinancing and Deleveraging
Ranpak refinanced its term loan, reducing leverage from 5.7x to 4x, with plans to further deleverage to 2.5-3x over the next 18-24 months.
Strategic Partnerships and Innovations
Ranpak announced a transformational transaction agreement with its largest customer and an exclusive partnership with Rabot to integrate AI in packaging solutions.
Lowlights
Challenges in Europe
Revenue growth in Europe and APAC was muted at only 1% on a constant currency basis, with post-U.S. election uncertainty affecting performance.
Short-term Margin Pressures
Short-term inefficiencies in areas like freight and logistics temporarily impacted margins due to high demand and longer lead times.
Impact of Amazon Warrant Expense
The Amazon warrant will result in a non-cash revenue reduction of $3 million to $5 million in 2025, affecting reported GAAP figures and adjusted EBITDA.
Company Guidance
During the Ranpak Holdings Corp. Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, significant guidance was provided for 2025. The company experienced a remarkable fourth quarter, with consolidated net revenue increasing by 17% on a constant currency basis and 12% volume growth, largely driven by North America's e-commerce activity and automation sales. For 2025, Ranpak forecasts net revenue growth of 5% to 11% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 5% to 16%, with automation revenue expected to grow by more than 50%. The company's strategic alignment with its largest customer, Amazon, is anticipated to provide additional growth opportunities. Ranpak aims to generate approximately $20 million in cash and plans to pay down roughly $50 million of debt, targeting a leverage ratio of 2.5 to 3 turns. The company is also focused on expanding its presence in the APAC region, with its Malaysia facility expected to enhance production and logistics efficiencies.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.