Oscar Health (OSCR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.50B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.93M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 37.38%
• EPS Growth: -912.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,400
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): -0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 229,010,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,923,309
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,928,925
• PEG Ratio: -1.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -9.45
• 1Y Price Target: $16.67
• Price Target Upside: 26.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $12.48B

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.00 ▲(21.03% Upside)

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance—ongoing losses and deteriorating free cash flow—along with a bearish technical setup (below key moving averages and negative MACD). The earnings call adds modest support due to strong growth and reaffirmed guidance, but rising medical costs (higher MLR) and continued losses keep risk elevated, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Membership Growth

Sustained 28% membership growth to over 2M expands Oscar's recurring premium base, improving risk pooling and negotiating leverage with providers. Scale helps spread fixed costs and funds network and product investments, a durable lever to drive future margin improvement if medical cost trends stabilize.

Revenue Expansion

Accelerating revenue (Q3 +23% to ~$3B) signals durable demand and marketplace traction across ACA, Medicare Advantage and small group segments. Strong top-line growth provides recurring cash inflows to support investments in care management and tech, underpinning a path to scale economies and long-term profitability if cost control follows.

Tech & Product Innovation

Product launches and AI integration (HelloMeno, Oswell/OpenAI) indicate durable differentiation through digital experiences. Scalable tech can reduce servicing costs, improve member engagement and outcomes, and strengthen retention—creating a structural advantage in a commoditized insurance market when effectively embedded into care models.

Negative Factors

Rising Medical Loss Ratio

An 88.5% MLR consumes most premium revenue, leaving limited room for administrative costs and underwriting margin. Persistently elevated MLRs structurally compress profitability for an insurer and require sustained improvements in utilization management, pricing discipline, or product redesign to restore durable margins.

Ongoing Operating Losses

Significant operating and net losses erode capital and limit reinvestment capacity. Continued unprofitability increases reliance on external financing, heightens execution risk for the 2026 profitability target, and can constrain strategic initiatives unless sustained margin recovery occurs.

Weak Free Cash Flow

A nearly 39% decline in free cash flow and weak operating cash conversion reduce financial flexibility for reserve buildup, product investment, and weathering adverse claims cycles. For an insurer, constrained FCF raises funding risk and potential need for dilutive capital, pressuring long-term stability.

Oscar Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oscar Health, Inc. provides health insurance products and services in the United States. The company offers Individual & Family, Small Group, and Medicare Advantage plans, as well as +Oscar, a technology driven platform designed to help providers and payor clients to engage with members and patients. It also provides reinsurance products. The company was formerly known as Mulberry Health Inc. and changed its name to Oscar Health, Inc. in January 2021. Oscar Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Oscar Health generates revenue primarily through premiums collected from its members in exchange for health insurance coverage. Its key revenue streams include individual and family plans sold on the health insurance marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Medicare Advantage plans for senior citizens, and small group health insurance products for businesses. Additionally, Oscar collaborates with healthcare providers and organizations to create value-based care arrangements that can lead to shared savings and improved patient outcomes. The company's focus on technology allows for efficient member engagement and care management, which can lead to cost savings and improved profitability over time.

Oscar Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue is growing, but profitability remains weak with negative margins and losses. Balance sheet leverage is moderate and manageable, yet ROE is negative. Cash flow is a key concern, with sharply declining free cash flow and weak conversion of earnings into operating cash.

Income Statement

Oscar Health has shown a moderate revenue growth rate of 5.24% in the TTM, indicating some positive momentum. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is relatively low at 21.20%, suggesting high cost structures. Overall, while revenue is growing, profitability remains a significant challenge.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67 in the TTM indicates a moderate level of leverage, which is manageable but has increased compared to previous years. The return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio is healthy, showing that a good portion of the company's assets are financed by equity. The balance sheet shows stability but highlights the need for improved profitability.

Cash Flow

Oscar Health's cash flow situation is concerning, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth of -38.78% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating challenges in converting earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, suggesting that cash flows are closely aligned with earnings, but the overall cash flow position is weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.29B	9.18B	5.86B	4.13B	1.92B	589.64M
Gross Profit	11.29B	9.18B	5.86B	4.13B	1.92B	589.64M
EBITDA	-183.34M	89.31M	-212.00M	-572.17M	-551.25M	-390.98M
Net Income	-244.09M	25.43M	-270.73M	-606.27M	-572.61M	-406.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.75B	4.84B	3.60B	4.53B	3.32B	2.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.04B	2.15B	2.56B	2.96B	1.69B	1.19B
Total Debt	686.29M	299.56M	298.78M	298.00M	0.00	142.49M
Total Liabilities	4.72B	3.82B	2.80B	3.63B	1.93B	3.57B
Stockholders Equity	1.02B	1.01B	803.97M	890.38M	1.39B	-1.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	735.64M	950.30M	-297.74M	351.34M	-207.63M	208.71M
Operating Cash Flow	769.77M	978.19M	-272.16M	380.35M	-181.75M	222.73M
Investing Cash Flow	-223.80M	-1.39B	577.19M	-226.52M	-774.51M	-344.71M
Financing Cash Flow	394.86M	68.39M	6.45M	301.11M	1.24B	611.71M

Oscar Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSCR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.77, below the 50-day MA of 15.85, and below the 200-day MA of 16.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.58 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OSCR.

Oscar Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MOH	71 Outperform	$9.15B	11.04	19.71%	―	13.71%	-18.02%
HUM	69 Neutral	$23.10B	18.09	7.15%	1.38%	9.87%	-5.58%
ALHC	65 Neutral	$4.27B	-183.09	-15.06%	―	47.39%	85.35%
CNC	58 Neutral	$20.13B	-3.79	-21.93%	―	14.92%	-286.72%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CLOV	48 Neutral	$1.09B	-18.22	-16.90%	―	15.23%	38.79%
OSCR	45 Neutral	$3.50B	-11.75	-22.32%	―	37.38%	-912.18%

Oscar Health Corporate Events

Oscar Health Extends CEO Bertolini Contract and Compensation

On December 22, 2025, Oscar Health, Inc. and Oscar Management Corporation amended and restated the employment agreement with Chief Executive Officer Mark T. Bertolini, extending his term from the effective date through April 1, 2029, with automatic one-year renewals thereafter unless either party opts out. The revised agreement raises Bertolini’s annual base salary to $1.3 million, increases his target annual bonus to 150% of base salary starting in 2026, and provides him with a $45 million equity package in the first quarter of 2026 split evenly between time-based RSUs and performance-based PSUs, while generally excluding him from other long-term incentive or equity awards until 2029. The contract also enhances severance protections in cases of termination without cause or for good reason, including a 1.5x cash severance and 18 months of subsidized healthcare, and sets detailed vesting and acceleration mechanics for the 2026 awards in scenarios such as qualifying terminations, death or disability, and change in control, underscoring the company’s intent to secure leadership continuity and align the CEO’s compensation with long-term performance and potential transaction outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (OSCR) stock is a Sell with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oscar Health stock, see the OSCR Stock Forecast page.

Oscar Health Enters $250M Exchange Agreement with Oasis

On November 3, 2025, Oscar Health entered into an exchange agreement with Oasis FD Holdings, LP, allowing the exchange of up to $250 million of its convertible senior notes for shares and cash, with $187.5 million already exchanged by November 5, 2025. This move is part of Oscar’s strategy to manage its capital structure and reduce future interest obligations. Additionally, Oscar reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, showing increased revenue but also higher losses compared to the previous year, reaffirming its full-year 2025 guidance and highlighting its focus on market expansion and cost management.

The most recent analyst rating on (OSCR) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oscar Health stock, see the OSCR Stock Forecast page.