Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)
NYSE:OSCR
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Oscar Health
(NYSE:OSCR)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(77.33% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
OSCR scores well primarily on improving fundamentals and a strong earnings update: exceptional TTM cash generation and reaffirmed 2026 guidance backed by very strong Q1 growth and profitability. The score is tempered by still-inconsistent profitability over time and technical indicators that appear overextended (high RSI/Stoch), which increases near-term volatility risk.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Oscar's step-change to multi-billion dollar operating and free cash flow is a durable strength: sustained positive cash generation funds statutory reserves, supports product/tech investments, enables opportunistic capital allocation and reduces refinancing risk, improving financial flexibility over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent profitability and thin margins
Despite recent operating gains, historical swings from small profits to sizable losses show earnings power is not yet stable. Persistent thin operating margins leave limited buffer for adverse claims or higher SG&A, increasing the risk that short-term shocks erode capital and slow strategic investments over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Oscar's step-change to multi-billion dollar operating and free cash flow is a durable strength: sustained positive cash generation funds statutory reserves, supports product/tech investments, enables opportunistic capital allocation and reduces refinancing risk, improving financial flexibility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Oscar Health (OSCR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.70B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth31.95%
EPS Growth-180.28%
CountryUS
Employees2,400
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.38
Shares Outstanding265,902,000
10 Day Avg. Volume7,594,825
30 Day Avg. Volume7,635,359
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)3.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio3.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda72.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.71Price Target Upside18.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.74B
Oscar Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Oscar Health, Inc. provides health insurance products and services in the United States. The company offers Individual & Family, Small Group, and Medicare Advantage plans, as well as +Oscar, a technology driven platform designed to help providers ...
How the Company Makes Money
Oscar primarily makes money by collecting health insurance premiums and managing the difference between premium revenue and the total cost of providing benefits and administering the plans.
Key revenue streams:
1) Premium revenue (health plan mem...
Oscar Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated robust top-line growth, record membership, strong profitability and a healthy balance sheet, with management highlighting AI/product initiatives and new distribution channels (Lucie, ICHRA X). Primary near-term concerns center on elevated early-year risk adjustment, seasonally low claims that affect RA and revenue timing, some prior-period reserve variability, and expected churn normalization. Management expressed confidence—reaffirming full-year guidance—and emphasized improving visibility after Q2 claims and Wakely reports.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $4.6 billion in Q1 2026, an increase of 53% year-over-year driven by higher membership and rate increases.
Negative Updates
Elevated Early-Year Risk Adjustment
Risk adjustment payable in Q1 tracked around ~24% (management referenced ~24.5%), higher than the company's full-year expectation of ~20% of direct premiums; elevated Q1 RA suppressed revenue and affects reported metrics due to seasonally low claims.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $4.6 billion in Q1 2026, an increase of 53% year-over-year driven by higher membership and rate increases.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Oscar reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance calling for total revenues of $18.7–$19.0 billion, an MLR of 82.4%–83.4% (lowest in Q1, highest in Q4), an SG&A ratio of 15.8%–16.3%, and earnings from operations of $250–$450 million (with adjusted EBITDA expected to be roughly $115 million higher). That outlook is supported by strong Q1 results: revenue $4.6 billion (+53% YoY), Q1 MLR 70.5% (improved 490 bps YoY), SG&A 15.2% (record low), earnings from operations $704 million, operating margin 15.2%, adjusted EBITDA $727 million, net income ~$679 million ($2.07/diluted share), and record membership of 3.2 million (+56% YoY; ~3.0 million paid as of April 1). The company also highlighted a strong balance sheet — ~$8.1 billion of cash and investments (including $279 million at the parent) and ~$1.7 billion of insurance subsidiary capital and surplus (including ~$809 million excess) — expects risk adjustment to normalize to ~20% of direct premiums in 2026 (Q1 ran around 24%), and anticipates gradual churn back toward pre‑ARPA levels.Oscar Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.30B | 11.70B | 9.18B | 5.86B | 4.13B | 1.92B |
| Gross Profit | 2.31B | 1.68B | 1.84B | 1.22B | 4.13B | 1.92B |
| EBITDA | 19.23M | -391.05M | 89.31M | -212.00M | -572.17M | -551.25M |
| Net Income | -39.43M | -443.15M | 25.43M | -270.73M | -606.27M | -572.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.29B | 6.33B | 4.84B | 3.60B | 4.53B | 3.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.80B | 3.99B | 2.15B | 2.56B | 2.96B | 1.69B |
| Total Debt | 430.88M | 430.10M | 299.56M | 298.78M | 298.00M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 7.62B | 5.34B | 3.82B | 2.80B | 3.63B | 1.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.66B | 977.65M | 1.01B | 803.97M | 890.38M | 1.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.80B | 1.06B | 950.30M | -297.74M | 351.34M | -207.63M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.84B | 1.09B | 978.19M | -272.16M | 380.35M | -181.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -657.09M | -241.06M | -1.39B | 577.19M | -226.52M | -774.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 390.74M | 399.21M | 68.39M | 6.45M | 301.11M | 1.24B |
Oscar Health Technical Analysis
Positive
15.79
Price Trends
17.43
Positive
15.92
Positive
16.67
Positive
Market Momentum
1.40
Positive
59.16
Neutral
17.44
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSCR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.96, below the 50-day MA of 17.43, and below the 200-day MA of 16.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OSCR.
Oscar Health Risk Analysis
Oscar Health disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oscar Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oscar Health Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.70B | -168.13 | -3.27% | ― | 31.95% | -180.28% | |
70 Outperform | $36.67B | 32.52 | 6.19% | 1.38% | 14.08% | -33.82% | |
68 Neutral | $2.10B | -36.50 | -17.08% | ― | 48.75% | -118.24% | |
63 Neutral | $29.43B | -4.55 | -28.72% | ― | 17.02% | -294.77% | |
63 Neutral | $3.17B | 158.84 | 11.50% | ― | 41.81% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $9.04B | 47.09 | 4.44% | ― | 7.72% | -83.64% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
OSCR
Oscar Health
22.23
7.97
55.89%
CNC
Centene
59.60
4.69
8.54%
HUM
Humana
305.42
77.63
34.08%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
173.60
-123.75
-41.62%
CLOV
Clover Health Investments
3.98
0.81
25.55%
ALHC
Alignment Healthcare
15.32
-0.19
-1.23%
Oscar Health Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Oscar Health Names New Board Chair Amid Growth Focus
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
Oscar Health reaffirmed its full-year 2026 financial guidance ahead of its participation in the Medicarians 2026 conference on April 21, 2026, signaling management’s confidence in its previously outlined outlook. The company also confirmed i...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Oscar Health Reaffirms 2026 Outlook at Investor Conference
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Oscar Health, Inc. announced it will participate in the 2026 Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference on March 2, 2026, engaging with institutional investors about its business and outlook. At the event, the company plans to reaffirm its p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.