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Oscar Health (OSCR)
NYSE:OSCR
US Market

Oscar Health (OSCR) AI Stock Analysis

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Oscar Health

(NYSE:OSCR)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$23.50
▲(14.91%Upside)
Oscar Health's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are offset by high valuation concerns and technical indicators suggesting an overbought condition. While the company is on a solid financial trajectory, potential investors should be cautious of the current valuation and regulatory challenges.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
OSCR reported 1Q25 EBITDA that beat expectations and reiterated guidance.
Membership Growth
The membership increased by over 100,000, which helped calm investors who were expecting difficulties.
Revenue Growth
OSCR reported solid results, with revenue 7% above consensus driven by stronger than expected membership growth.
Negative Factors
Enrollment Declines
OSCR's main geographic markets, representing a significant portion of its members, are expected to face large enrollment declines, affecting the company's revenue and operating margin.
Financial Health Concerns
MLR missed, raising concerns about the financial health of the company.
Regulatory Challenges
The expiration of enhanced advanced premium tax credits and regulatory crackdowns could lead to adverse risk pool shifts and structurally lower margins.

Oscar Health (OSCR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Oscar Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOscar Health, Inc. provides health insurance products and services in the United States. The company offers Individual & Family, Small Group, and Medicare Advantage plans, as well as +Oscar, a technology driven platform designed to help providers and payor clients to engage with members and patients. It also provides reinsurance products. The company was formerly known as Mulberry Health Inc. and changed its name to Oscar Health, Inc. in January 2021. Oscar Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyOscar Health makes money primarily through the collection of premiums from its members who enroll in its health insurance plans. The company's revenue streams include individual and family plans, small group plans, and Medicare Advantage plans. Oscar Health receives payments from members or sponsors, such as employers, who provide health insurance coverage. Additionally, the company may receive government subsidies for certain plans, particularly those offered under the Affordable Care Act. Oscar also generates revenue by managing healthcare utilization and costs effectively, as it shares in the savings if the cost of medical claims is lower than expected under value-based care arrangements. Partnerships with healthcare providers and a focus on preventive care and telemedicine also contribute to managing expenses and improving profitability.

Oscar Health Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 56.47%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Oscar Health demonstrated strong financial performance with significant revenue and membership growth, operational efficiency, and successful technological and partnership initiatives. However, challenges remain in managing increased medical loss ratios and navigating regulatory changes.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Income Growth
Oscar Health reported total revenue of $3 billion for the quarter, a 42% increase year-over-year. Net income improved significantly to $275 million, up $98 million from the prior year period.
Membership Growth
The company closed the quarter with approximately 2 million effectuated members, representing a 41% increase year-over-year.
Operational Efficiency
Oscar reported the lowest SG&A ratio in the company's history at 15.8%, a 260 basis point improvement year-over-year.
Technological Advancements
The launch of a free live chat feature for Virtual Urgent Care decreased member response times by 90% and improved provider efficiency by 28%.
Partnerships and Community Programs
Oscar launched Oscar Community Resources with Find Help, providing members access to local food, housing, and other services beyond medical care.
Negative Updates
Medical Loss Ratio Increase
MLR increased by 120 basis points year-over-year to 75.4%, impacted by a $31 million unfavorable prior period development.
Regulatory Challenges
Concerns over CMS's proposed program integrity initiatives, including shortened enrollment windows that could constrain consumer shopping options.
Company Guidance
During the Oscar Health first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance for the full year, reaffirming all of its key metrics. It anticipates total revenue between $11.2 billion and $11.3 billion, driven by a strong 41% year-over-year increase in membership to over 2 million effectuated members. The medical loss ratio (MLR) is expected to range from 80.7% to 81.7%, while the SG&A expense ratio is projected to be between 17.6% and 18.1%. The company also expects earnings from operations to range from $225 million to $275 million, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to be approximately $140 million higher than earnings from operations. Oscar Health emphasized its commitment to disciplined execution, strong top line growth, and margin expansion, positioning the company to achieve its 2025 targets.

Oscar Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Oscar Health has shown a positive financial trajectory with substantial revenue growth, improving profitability metrics, and strong cash flow generation. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage and improving equity, though there's room for improvement in the equity ratio.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Oscar Health has demonstrated a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a significant increase in total revenue from $4.1 billion in 2022 to $10.08 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. The gross profit margin remains robust at 100%, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin has improved from negative figures to 1.22% in TTM 2025, showing progress towards profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, reflecting better operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet shows a solid equity base, with stockholders' equity rising from negative in 2020 to $1.33 billion in TTM 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.22, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity has turned positive, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the equity ratio is at 22.81%, suggesting potential room for improvement in equity financing.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Oscar Health has shown strong cash flow generation, with free cash flow increasing from negative figures to $1.19 billion in TTM 2025. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating efficient cash management. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is high, demonstrating the company's ability to convert earnings into cash effectively.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue10.08B9.18B5.86B4.13B1.92B589.64M
Gross Profit10.08B9.18B5.86B4.13B1.92B589.64M
EBITDA197.58M88.62M-212.00M-572.17M-551.25M-390.97M
Net Income123.33M25.43M-270.73M-609.55M-571.43M-406.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.84B4.84B3.60B4.53B3.32B2.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.99B2.15B2.56B2.96B1.69B1.19B
Total Debt299.75M299.56M298.78M298.00M0.00142.49M
Total Liabilities4.51B3.82B2.80B3.63B440.02M3.57B
Stockholders Equity1.33B1.01B803.97M890.38M1.39B-1.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.19B950.30M-297.74M351.34M-207.63M208.71M
Operating Cash Flow1.22B978.19M-272.16M380.35M-181.75M222.73M
Investing Cash Flow-1.26B-1.39B577.19M-226.52M-774.51M-344.71M
Financing Cash Flow45.95M68.39M6.45M301.11M1.24B611.71M

Oscar Health Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price20.45
Price Trends
50DMA
15.67
Positive
100DMA
14.77
Positive
200DMA
15.71
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.31
Negative
RSI
47.08
Neutral
STOCH
50.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSCR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.36, above the 50-day MA of 15.67, and above the 200-day MA of 15.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OSCR.

Oscar Health Risk Analysis

Oscar Health disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oscar Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Oscar Health Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
HUHUM
77
Outperform
$30.48B17.8610.09%1.45%10.09%-12.18%
76
Outperform
$5.20B76.9610.43%54.26%
MOMOH
72
Outperform
$16.60B11.5426.72%16.71%12.23%
CNCNC
71
Outperform
$28.19B8.4312.59%8.85%33.30%
55
Neutral
$2.81B-75.82%49.12%43.50%
51
Neutral
$7.55B0.30-61.90%2.27%17.11%1.58%
50
Neutral
$1.40B-7.75%-32.45%80.24%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OSCR
Oscar Health
16.62
-0.45
-2.64%
CNC
Centene
33.78
-32.98
-49.40%
HUM
Humana
243.79
-114.29
-31.92%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
239.00
-57.39
-19.36%
CLOV
Clover Health Investments
2.59
1.34
107.20%
ALHC
Alignment Healthcare
13.61
5.66
71.19%

Oscar Health Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Oscar Health Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Oscar Health, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where a quorum was established with 825,961,296 votes represented. During the meeting, nine directors were elected, and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified. Additionally, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers was approved on an advisory basis, indicating shareholder support for the company’s leadership and financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (OSCR) stock is a Sell with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oscar Health stock, see the OSCR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 21, 2025