Centene (CNC)
NYSE:CNC
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Centene
(NYSE:CNC)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▼(-6.78% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
The score is held back primarily by the TTM earnings reversal (negative margins and net loss) and a clearly bearish technical trend with weak momentum. These are partially offset by improved TTM cash flow and an earnings call that outlines a credible 2026 recovery plan (EPS > $3 and lower HBR), though execution risks remain elevated.
Positive Factors
Durable Revenue Growth
Centene’s top line has shown steady expansion, supported by Medicaid, Medicare and marketplace scale. Durable revenue growth provides negotiating leverage with providers and payors, helping absorb cost shocks and fund investments that support margin recovery over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Sharp Profitability Deterioration
Margins swung materially negative in TTM, reversing prior multi-year profitability and turning ROE negative. Restoring sustainable operating margins is essential; until achieved, earnings volatility and pressure on retained capital limit strategic optionality and long-term return generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable Revenue Growth
Centene’s top line has shown steady expansion, supported by Medicaid, Medicare and marketplace scale. Durable revenue growth provides negotiating leverage with providers and payors, helping absorb cost shocks and fund investments that support margin recovery over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Centene (CNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.41B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.31
Revenue Growth14.92%
EPS Growth-286.72%
CountryUS
Employees60,400
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.19
Shares Outstanding491,771,000
10 Day Avg. Volume7,672,119
30 Day Avg. Volume6,612,878
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.10
P/FCF Ratio4.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-3.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.38Price Target Upside19.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$189.15B
Centene Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Centene Corporation operates as a multi-national healthcare enterprise that provides programs and services to under-insured and uninsured individuals in the United States. Its Managed Care segment offers health plan coverage to individuals through...
How the Company Makes Money
Centene makes money primarily by administering health benefits for members enrolled in government-sponsored programs and other insurance products. Its core revenue stream is premium revenue: Centene receives a fixed payment (often per member per m...
Centene Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product
Details income from each product line, offering insight into which offerings are most successful and where there might be opportunities for growth.
Details income from each product line, offering insight into which offerings are most successful and where there might be opportunities for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCentene Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call acknowledged a difficult 2025 but highlighted tangible operational progress (Medicaid HBR improvement, Medicare strength, SG&A savings, deleveraging, and AI-driven initiatives) and set an optimistic 2026 financial target (adjusted EPS > $3, >40% YoY growth). Material near-term headwinds remain—marketplace membership/revenue pressure, NSA-related accruals, persistent behavioral health and high-cost drug trend, and Medicaid membership attrition—creating execution risk. On balance, management presented credible actions, improving trends, and a constructive outlook that suggests momentum toward margin recovery in 2026 and beyond.Positive Updates
2026 EPS Outlook
Company expects full year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS > $3, representing >40% year-over-year growth from 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.08, signaling a planned meaningful margin recovery.
Negative Updates
2025 Earnings and Q4 Adjusted Loss
2025 was a challenging year: Q4 adjusted diluted loss per share was $1.19 and full year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS was $2.08; Q4 GAAP diluted loss per share was $2.24 driven in part by a $389 million net loss related to a definitive agreement to divest the remaining Magellan business.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
2026 EPS Outlook
Company expects full year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS > $3, representing >40% year-over-year growth from 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.08, signaling a planned meaningful margin recovery.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Centene's 2026 guidance calls for premium and service revenue of $170–$174 billion, consolidated health benefits ratio (HBR) of 90.9%–91.7% (midpoint ~91.3%, down ~60 bps versus 2025), and adjusted diluted EPS greater than $3 (over 40% YoY growth vs. 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.08); seasonality is expected to concentrate earnings in Q1 with step‑downs in Q2, roughly breakeven in Q3 and a loss in Q4. By segment, Medicaid assumes a mid‑fours net rate impact (~4.5%) and mid‑fours net trend with a stable HBR versus 2025 (2025 Medicaid HBR ~93.7%, Q4 = 93%), member months down 5–6% (year‑end membership ~12.5M); Marketplace revenue is expected to be down about $8B with Q1 paid Ambetter membership ~3.5M (Dec = 5.0M), bronze >30% of mix, and marketplace pretax margin recovering to roughly ~4% (vs. ~‑1% in 2025); the Medicare segment is expected to grow premium revenue by ~ $7.5B, finish open enrollment at ~8.7M members, have a ~41% MA/59% PDP revenue split, PDP pretax margin assumed ~2% (with direct subsidy rising from ~$143 to ~$200), and Medicare Advantage continuing toward breakeven in 2027 (not yet breakeven in 2026, no PDR booked). Other guidance assumptions include consolidated adjusted SG&A ~7.4% (Q4 = 7.5%), medical claims liability $20.5B (~46 days), available cash ~ $400M, $189M of debt reduction in Q4 (debt‑to‑cap ~46.5%), an adjusted tax rate of 26%–27%, reduced investment income from anticipated Fed cuts, and no share buybacks reflected in guidance.Centene Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 194.78B | 163.07B | 154.00B | 144.55B | 125.98B |
| Gross Profit | 23.83B | 16.83B | 17.32B | 16.66B | 14.20B |
| EBITDA | -5.14B | 6.20B | 5.62B | 4.06B | 3.81B |
| Net Income | -6.67B | 3.31B | 2.70B | 1.20B | 1.35B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 77.66B | 82.44B | 84.64B | 76.87B | 78.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.89B | 16.68B | 19.65B | 14.39B | 14.66B |
| Total Debt | 18.78B | 19.43B | 18.88B | 21.33B | 22.66B |
| Total Liabilities | 57.60B | 55.94B | 58.69B | 52.63B | 51.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.95B | 26.41B | 25.84B | 24.06B | 26.80B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.32B | -490.00M | 7.25B | 5.26B | 3.29B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.09B | 154.00M | 8.05B | 6.26B | 4.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 453.00M | -1.05B | -1.28B | -2.92B | -3.30B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.60B | -2.41B | -1.57B | -4.20B | 1.36B |
Centene Technical Analysis
Neutral
35.40
Price Trends
39.33
Negative
39.90
Negative
36.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.75
Negative
46.67
Neutral
82.66
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 35.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.68, below the 50-day MA of 39.33, and below the 200-day MA of 36.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.66 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CNC.
Centene Risk Analysis
Centene disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Centene reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Centene Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $72.65B | 12.29 | 14.53% | 2.21% | 16.75% | 113.48% | |
64 Neutral | $66.79B | 13.73 | 13.01% | 1.99% | 11.96% | -11.11% | |
61 Neutral | $3.80B | -8.51 | -39.45% | ― | 37.38% | -912.18% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $17.41B | -3.03 | -27.74% | ― | 14.92% | -286.72% | |
49 Neutral | $7.38B | 18.68 | 10.99% | ― | 13.71% | -18.02% | |
47 Neutral | $21.93B | -9.68 | 6.59% | 1.38% | 9.87% | -5.58% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CNC
Centene
35.40
-27.00
-43.27%
CI
Cigna
275.69
-31.65
-10.30%
HUM
Humana
182.65
-94.92
-34.20%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
143.36
-187.30
-56.64%
ELV
Elevance Health
302.61
-119.28
-28.27%
OSCR
Oscar Health
12.76
1.04
8.87%
Centene Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Centene Reshapes Finance Leadership With New Controller
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
Centene’s board has appointed long-time finance executive Theodore Pienkos as Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, effective March 18, 2026, formalizing a leadership transition in the company’s finance organization. Pienk...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Centene Reaffirms 2026 Outlook and Redeems Debt Notes
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
Centene said it will present at the Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on March 10, 2026, where it expects to reaffirm its 2026 full-year GAAP diluted EPS guidance of more than $1.98 and adjusted diluted EPS of more than $3.00, high...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.