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Centene (CNC)
NYSE:CNC
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Centene (CNC) AI Stock Analysis

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CNC

Centene

(NYSE:CNC)

Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(3.97% Upside)
Centene's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and a stable balance sheet but is heavily impacted by operational inefficiencies and bearish technical indicators. The negative sentiment from the earnings call, highlighting significant financial challenges, further weighs down the score. Despite being potentially undervalued, the lack of a dividend yield and technical weakness limits its attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Managed Care Services Impact
CNC was able to begin applying managed care services in Florida, and is already seeing the impact of these interventions.
Medicare Performance
Medicare was the lone bright spot with PDP and MA both outperforming expectations, although still operating at a negative margin.
Negative Factors
Exchange Business Challenges
Centene expects the exchange business to be slightly negative margin for the remainder of 2025 due to updated risk adjustment headwinds.
Medicaid Margin Pressures
Medicaid is experiencing headwinds in behavioral, home health, and high-cost drugs, pushing its margin well below target.

Centene (CNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Centene Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCentene Corporation (CNC) is a leading multi-national healthcare enterprise that provides a wide range of managed healthcare services, primarily focusing on government-sponsored programs. The company operates through various segments, including Medicaid, Medicare, and Health Insurance Marketplace programs, serving millions of members across the United States. Centene's core offerings encompass health plans, pharmacy benefits management, and specialized services aimed at improving the health outcomes of its members while managing costs effectively.
How the Company Makes MoneyCentene generates revenue primarily through the provision of healthcare services to government programs such as Medicaid and Medicare. The company earns money by receiving monthly premiums for each member enrolled in its health plans, which are paid by state and federal government agencies. Key revenue streams include Medicaid managed care, Medicare Advantage plans, and the Health Insurance Marketplace. Additionally, Centene benefits from partnerships with various states to administer Medicaid programs and engages in value-based care arrangements that incentivize cost savings and improved health outcomes. The company's growth is also supported by strategic acquisitions that expand its service offerings and member base, enhancing its overall revenue potential.

Centene Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 25, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.64%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call reflects significant challenges in Centene's operations, primarily due to pressures in the Marketplace segment and elevated medical costs in Medicaid. While there are positive developments in the Medicare segment and improved Medicaid rate adjustments, the overall sentiment is negative due to the substantial financial losses and projected pressures.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Marketplace Membership Growth
Centene reported second quarter Marketplace membership of 5.9 million members, driving more than $10 billion of commercial premium and service revenue.
Medicare Segment Favorability
The Medicare segment is expected to deliver approximately $700 million in pretax favorability, driven by better-than-expected results in PDP and Medicare Advantage.
Improved Medicaid Rate Adjustments
Centene expects a 2025 composite rate adjustment of 5%, stronger than the previous expectation of 4%+, with recent rate updates materializing better than anticipated.
Negative Updates
Second Quarter Financial Loss
Centene reported an adjusted per share loss of $0.16 for the second quarter, falling short of their financial goals.
Significant Marketplace Earnings Pressure
Marketplace earnings are expected to be pressured by $2.4 billion due to a morbidity shift, with the product expected to run slightly below breakeven for 2025.
Elevated Medicaid Medical Cost Trend
The Medicaid health benefits ratio was 94.9%, driven by behavioral health, home health, and high-cost drugs, resulting in an approximate $2.1 billion headwind on pretax earnings.
Challenges in Medicaid Behavioral Health
Behavioral health, particularly ABA services, is a significant driver of Medicaid cost trend, with efforts underway to align members to high-quality providers and root out fraud, waste, and abuse.
Company Guidance
During Centene Corporation's second quarter earnings call for 2025, various metrics and guidance were provided regarding the company's performance and future outlook. Centene reported a second-quarter adjusted per share loss of $0.16, primarily due to challenges such as a $2.4 billion pressure from Marketplace risk adjustment, which had a significant impact on earnings projections. The company detailed efforts to reprice its 2026 Marketplace portfolio to address morbidity shifts and anticipated revenue challenges from enhanced APTC expirations. Centene expects full-year adjusted diluted EPS of approximately $1.75, revising its previous guidance of $7.25, largely due to increased Medicaid health benefits ratio pressure, which contributed to an approximate $2.1 billion headwind compared to prior forecasts. The company aims to improve margins across its business lines, targeting profitability in its Marketplace portfolio by 2026 and breakeven for its Medicare Advantage business by 2027. Additionally, Centene's revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to approximately $172 billion, with significant portions attributed to Medicaid ($89 billion), Commercial ($41 billion), and Medicare ($37 billion) segments.

Centene Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Centene shows strong revenue growth and a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage. However, operational efficiency is a concern with low EBIT and EBITDA margins. Cash flow metrics indicate challenges in cash conversion, but there are recent improvements in free cash flow.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Centene's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a robust Gross Profit Margin of 12.5% and a Net Profit Margin of 1.15%. The company demonstrated a strong Revenue Growth Rate of 9.29% from the previous year, indicating healthy expansion. However, the EBIT Margin of 1.07% and EBITDA Margin of 2.25% are relatively low, suggesting limited operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Centene's financial leverage is moderate with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.64. The company has a Return on Equity (ROE) of 7.5%, which is satisfactory but shows room for improvement. The Equity Ratio stands at 31.73%, reflecting a stable capital structure with a reasonable proportion of equity financing.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The company's Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is positive, recovering from a negative position last year to $1.08 billion. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.84 indicates adequate cash generation relative to net profits. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.53 suggests potential challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue178.19B163.07B154.00B144.55B125.98B111.11B
Gross Profit15.90B16.83B17.32B16.66B14.20B15.22B
EBITDA4.39B6.20B5.62B4.06B3.81B4.76B
Net Income2.05B3.31B2.70B1.20B1.35B1.81B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets86.39B82.44B84.64B76.87B78.38B68.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments17.28B16.68B19.65B14.39B14.66B12.38B
Total Debt17.58B19.43B18.88B21.33B22.66B18.32B
Total Liabilities58.89B55.94B58.69B52.63B51.35B42.76B
Stockholders Equity27.41B26.41B25.84B24.06B26.80B25.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.08B-490.00M7.25B5.26B3.29B4.63B
Operating Cash Flow1.73B154.00M8.05B6.26B4.21B5.50B
Investing Cash Flow-2.17B-1.05B-1.19B-2.92B-3.30B-6.96B
Financing Cash Flow-2.68B-2.41B-1.66B-4.20B1.36B260.00M

Centene Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price26.93
Price Trends
50DMA
38.44
Negative
100DMA
49.34
Negative
200DMA
54.81
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.12
Negative
RSI
36.08
Neutral
STOCH
80.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.58, below the 50-day MA of 38.44, and below the 200-day MA of 54.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CNC.

Centene Risk Analysis

Centene disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Centene reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Centene Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$33.07B21.109.03%1.26%9.88%-7.25%
73
Outperform
$83.09B18.285.95%3.99%6.27%-36.28%
73
Outperform
$74.87B15.3212.31%2.03%20.93%43.98%
71
Outperform
$65.86B12.4512.48%2.26%10.21%-17.79%
65
Neutral
$8.53B7.9523.93%16.12%10.99%
60
Neutral
HK$18.14B5.28-4.00%3.33%10.16%-17.39%
58
Neutral
$12.85B6.477.50%12.96%-23.25%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CNC
Centene
26.93
-51.58
-65.70%
CI
Cigna
290.35
-40.43
-12.22%
CVS
CVS Health
66.73
11.69
21.24%
HUM
Humana
281.34
-71.19
-20.19%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
159.63
-186.31
-53.86%
ELV
Elevance Health
295.43
-237.87
-44.60%

Centene Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Centene Director Wayne DeVeydt Resigns Effective Immediately
Neutral
Aug 4, 2025

On August 1, 2025, Wayne S. DeVeydt resigned from his position as a director at Centene Corporation, effective immediately. His departure was not due to any disagreements with the company or its board, and following his resignation, the board reduced its size to ten directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNC) stock is a Hold with a $64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centene stock, see the CNC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 29, 2025