Centene (CNC)
NYSE:CNC
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Centene
(NYSE:CNC)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$63.00
▲(65.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is constrained primarily by weak recent profitability and negative returns despite improved cash generation. Offsetting factors include constructive earnings-call momentum (raised guidance and cost discipline) and attractive valuation on a very low P/E, while technicals are supportive but appear overbought, increasing near-term volatility risk.
Positive Factors
Large diversified government-plan scale
Centene's large, diversified premium base across Medicaid, Medicare and the ACA Marketplace provides durable scale and negotiating leverage with providers and suppliers. That scale diversifies risk across programs and creates sticky, contract-based premium revenue that supports long-term cash flow stability.
Negative Factors
Swing to sizable losses and negative returns
The recent transition from profitable years to meaningful losses and negative ROE weakens core earnings quality and erodes equity cushions. Persistent or recurring losses would reduce strategic flexibility, constrain competitive investments, and increase pressure on capital allocation and contracting ability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large diversified government-plan scale
Centene's large, diversified premium base across Medicaid, Medicare and the ACA Marketplace provides durable scale and negotiating leverage with providers and suppliers. That scale diversifies risk across programs and creates sticky, contract-based premium revenue that supports long-term cash flow stability.
Read all positive factors
Centene Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product
Details income from each product line, offering insight into which offerings are most successful and where there might be opportunities for growth.
Details income from each product line, offering insight into which offerings are most successful and where there might be opportunities for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCentene (CNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.75B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.6
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth17.02%
EPS Growth-294.77%
CountryUS
Employees60,400
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-13.12
Shares Outstanding493,797,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,482,968
30 Day Avg. Volume6,621,303
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.10
P/FCF Ratio4.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$54.06Price Target Upside41.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)3.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$191.00B
Centene Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Centene Corporation operates as a multi-national healthcare enterprise that provides programs and services to under-insured and uninsured individuals in the United States. Its Managed Care segment offers health plan coverage to individuals through...
How the Company Makes Money
Centene makes money primarily by administering health benefits for members enrolled in government-sponsored programs and other insurance products. Its core revenue stream is premium revenue: Centene receives a fixed payment (often per member per m...
Centene Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong first-quarter execution with an EPS beat, raised full-year EPS outlook, improved Medicaid margins, Medicare outperformance, disciplined SG&A and robust cash generation. These positives were balanced by ongoing elevated medical and specialty pharmacy trends, Marketplace utilization in the Silver tier (with guidance conservatively not reflecting the full potential risk adjustment offset), seasonality that weights earnings toward Q1 and the need to refine assumptions once June Wakely data arrives. Management emphasized operational progress (trend programs, payment integrity, leadership changes) and prudent conservatism in guidance.Positive Updates
Quarterly EPS Beat and Raised Full-Year Outlook
Reported adjusted diluted EPS of $3.37 for Q1 2026, roughly $0.50 above expectations. Increased full-year adjusted EPS guidance to greater than $3.40 (up from greater than $3.00).
Negative Updates
Marketplace Q1 Utilization Pressure in Silver Tier
Q1 Marketplace HBR was slightly higher-than-expected driven by elevated utilization concentrated in Silver members. Management conservatively embedded only a partial risk adjustment receivable in current guidance and assumed a ~3% pretax margin for Marketplace versus prior ~4% assumption (a ~100 basis-point reduction in embedded pretax margin guidance).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly EPS Beat and Raised Full-Year Outlook
Reported adjusted diluted EPS of $3.37 for Q1 2026, roughly $0.50 above expectations. Increased full-year adjusted EPS guidance to greater than $3.40 (up from greater than $3.00).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Centene raised full‑year adjusted EPS guidance to greater than $3.40 (from >$3) after reporting Q1 adjusted diluted EPS of $3.37 on $44.7B of premium and service revenue; consolidated Q1 HBR was 87.3% with Medicaid HBR 93.1% (12.4M Medicaid members) and Medicare HBR 84.9% (PDP membership ~8.7M), Marketplace membership ~3.58M (Q1 metal mix ~50% Silver, ~35% Bronze; 75% of Silver were renewals) and an embedded Marketplace pretax margin of ~3% (vs prior ~4%); management expects Medicaid net trend in the mid‑4% range and a Medicaid composite rate yield of roughly 4.5%, year‑end Medicaid membership down ~6% YoY, full‑year HBR guidance unchanged at 90.9%–91.7%, consolidated SG&A ratio 7.6% in Q1 (down from 7.9% YoY) with SG&A guidance lowered 10 bps, added $1B of premium revenue to prior range, $50M more investment income, $437M cash available for general use, $1B receivable sale used to repurchase $1B of senior notes leaving debt‑to‑cap at 43.2% (vs 46.5% YE), Q1 cash from operations $4.4B, and medical claims liability of $20.6B (48 days, +2 days); management noted the June Wakely data will be key to refining Marketplace risk adjustment assumptions.Centene Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 198.10B | 194.78B | 163.07B | 154.00B | 144.55B | 125.98B |
| Gross Profit | 29.57B | 23.83B | 16.83B | 17.32B | 16.66B | 14.20B |
| EBITDA | -5.11B | -5.14B | 6.20B | 5.62B | 4.06B | 3.81B |
| Net Income | -6.44B | -6.67B | 3.31B | 2.70B | 1.20B | 1.35B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 81.17B | 77.66B | 82.44B | 84.64B | 76.87B | 78.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.74B | 17.89B | 16.68B | 19.65B | 14.39B | 14.66B |
| Total Debt | 16.37B | 18.78B | 19.43B | 18.88B | 21.33B | 22.66B |
| Total Liabilities | 59.65B | 57.60B | 55.94B | 58.69B | 52.63B | 51.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 21.43B | 19.95B | 26.41B | 25.84B | 24.06B | 26.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.35B | 4.32B | -490.00M | 7.25B | 5.26B | 3.29B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.18B | 5.09B | 154.00M | 8.05B | 6.26B | 4.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.07B | 453.00M | -1.05B | -1.28B | -2.92B | -3.30B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.42B | -1.60B | -2.41B | -1.57B | -4.20B | 1.36B |
Centene Technical Analysis
Positive
38.17
Price Trends
42.46
Positive
42.82
Positive
38.51
Positive
Market Momentum
4.92
Negative
81.60
Negative
83.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.88, below the 50-day MA of 42.46, and below the 200-day MA of 38.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.60 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CNC.
Centene Risk Analysis
Centene disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Centene reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Centene Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $75.84B | 10.59 | 15.16% | 2.21% | 9.30% | 30.22% | |
77 Outperform | $7.63B | 1.26 | -3.27% | ― | 31.95% | -180.28% | |
75 Outperform | $85.58B | 9.15 | 11.95% | 1.99% | 9.44% | -8.53% | |
70 Outperform | $36.74B | 4.40 | 6.19% | 1.38% | 14.08% | -33.82% | |
63 Neutral | $28.75B | 2.61 | -28.72% | ― | 17.02% | -294.77% | |
55 Neutral | $9.63B | 121.40 | 4.44% | ― | 7.72% | -83.64% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CNC
Centene
59.15
-1.59
-2.62%
CI
Cigna
291.28
-19.24
-6.20%
HUM
Humana
310.55
68.60
28.35%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
184.38
-135.24
-42.31%
ELV
Elevance Health
402.27
10.51
2.68%
OSCR
Oscar Health
24.52
9.66
65.01%
Centene Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Centene refreshes leadership team and affirms governance direction
Positive
May 15, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Centene’s board confirmed a refreshed senior leadership roster aligned with its core businesses, naming CEO Sarah London, CFO Drew Asher, COO Susan Smith, and General Counsel Christopher Koster among its executive officers, ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Centene Reshapes Finance Leadership With New Controller
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
Centene’s board has appointed long-time finance executive Theodore Pienkos as Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, effective March 18, 2026, formalizing a leadership transition in the company’s finance organization. Pienk...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Centene Reaffirms 2026 Outlook and Redeems Debt Notes
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
Centene said it will present at the Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on March 10, 2026, where it expects to reaffirm its 2026 full-year GAAP diluted EPS guidance of more than $1.98 and adjusted diluted EPS of more than $3.00, high...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.