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Elevance Health (ELV)
NYSE:ELV
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Elevance Health
(NYSE:ELV)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$373.00
▲(7.88% Upside)
ELV’s score is primarily held back by recent margin and cash-flow compression and cautious 2026 guidance that includes membership declines and a negative Medicaid margin. These risks are partially offset by a solid balance sheet, relatively attractive valuation (P/E and dividend), and management’s outlined path to cash-flow improvement and renewed EPS growth beyond 2026.
Positive Factors
Sustained revenue scale and diversified lines
Multi-year top-line expansion reflects durable scale across commercial, Medicare, Medicaid, ASO and pharmacy lines, which supports negotiating leverage with providers and PBMs, cross‑selling, and resilience to single‑line shocks over the next 2–6 months.
Manageable leverage and strengthening equity base
A solid balance sheet and rising equity provide durable financial flexibility to absorb margin cycles, fund digital investments, sustain capital returns and pursue strategic M&A without immediate refinancing stress, preserving long‑term optionality.
Fast-growing Carillon/pharmacy services and digital progress
Rapid external growth in Carillon and Rx services diversifies revenue away from risk-based insurance and taps higher-demand third‑party service markets. Combined with HealthOS and patient programs, this supports durable margin expansion potential once affiliated membership headwinds normalize.
Negative Factors
Elevated medical loss ratios and cost trends
Persistently high MLRs compress underwriting margins and limit operating leverage. Over a multi‑quarter horizon this forces tougher pricing, network or utilization actions and constrains progress toward long‑term enterprise margin targets unless cost trends abate.
Membership declines and negative Medicaid margin
Material risk‑based membership attrition reduces premium scale, dilutes affiliated Rx volume and weakens cross‑sell economics. A negative Medicaid margin outlook implies persistent underwriting losses in a large line, pressuring enterprise profitability over the medium term.
Weakened operating and free cash flow trend
A marked decline in operating and free cash flow reduces financial optionality for investments, buybacks and cushioning near‑term margin shocks. Even if still cash‑generative, the downward trend raises sustainable capital allocation and earnings‑quality concerns for the next several quarters.
Elevance Health (ELV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$76.84B
Dividend Yield1.99%
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.8
Beta (1Y)0.28
Revenue Growth11.96%
EPS Growth-11.11%
CountryUS
Employees104,200
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.33
Shares Outstanding222,238,770
10 Day Avg. Volume2,128,157
30 Day Avg. Volume1,473,705
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.63
Price to Book (P/B)1.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.39
P/FCF Ratio24.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$392.69Price Target Upside13.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)26.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$200.04B
Elevance Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionElevance Health Inc. operates as a health benefits company. It supports consumers, families, and communities across the entire care journey connecting to the care, support, and resources to lead healthier lives. It serves approximately 118 million people through a portfolio of medical, digital, pharmacy, behavioral, clinical, and care solutions. The company was formerly known as Anthem, Inc. and changed its name to Elevance Health Inc. in June 2022. Elevance Health Inc. was founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyElevance Health generates revenue primarily through its health insurance premiums, which are collected from members and employers in exchange for coverage. The company offers various plans, including individual and group health plans, government programs like Medicare and Medicaid, and specialty services. Significant revenue streams include enrollment fees from members, reimbursements from government programs, and payments from employers for employee health insurance plans. Additionally, Elevance Health engages in value-based care initiatives and collaborates with healthcare providers to improve patient outcomes, which can lead to cost savings and enhanced profitability. Partnerships with pharmacy benefit managers and other healthcare organizations further contribute to the company's revenue by optimizing drug costs and improving service delivery.
Elevance Health Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Medical Memberships
Tracks the number of individuals enrolled in the company's health plans, indicating market reach, customer base size, and potential revenue from premiums.
Tracks the number of individuals enrolled in the company's health plans, indicating market reach, customer base size, and potential revenue from premiums.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyElevance Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced significant near-term challenges—notably membership declines (Medicaid and Medicare), elevated cost trends, a negative Medicaid margin expectation for 2026, and a lower 2026 EPS baseline versus 2025—with several constructive positives: strong Q4 revenue, Carillon growth and external demand, disciplined pricing and portfolio repositioning, targeted investments in analytics and care management, healthy ASO sales momentum, and a clear plan to return to at least 12% EPS growth in 2027. Management emphasized prudent assumptions and execution, but material near-term headwinds and margin recalibrations reduce upside in 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and FY2025 Adjusted EPS
Reported adjusted diluted EPS of $3.33 in Q4 and $30.29 for full-year 2025; FY2025 results included approximately $3.75 per share of favorable nonrecurring items.
Q4 Revenue Growth
Operating revenue for the fourth quarter totaled $49.3 billion, an increase of 10% year-over-year, driven by premium rate adjustments, higher cost trend recognition, and recent acquisitions.
2026 Guidance and Path to 2027 Growth
Established 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of at least $25.50 and reaffirmed a long-term algorithm targeting at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027 off the 2026 baseline.
Carillon Momentum and External Growth
Carillon reported strong customer demand: services grew nearly 60% in 2025 and pharmacy grew over 20% in 2025; external services growth (adjusting for internal headwinds) would have been high-teens to low-twenties and Rx low-double-digits.
Member-Facing & Digital Progress
Patient advocacy programs now serve over 7 million members, up nearly 20% year-over-year; committed to >80% of prior authorization decisions in real time by 2027 and continued rollout of the HealthOS platform for real-time data exchange.
Capital Return and Liquidity
Repurchased $2.6 billion of shares in 2025 (1.4 million shares / $470 million in Q4) and returned $4.1 billion to shareholders; plan to allocate approximately $2.3 billion to share repurchases in 2026 and expect operating cash flow of at least $5.5 billion in 2026 (vs $4.3 billion in 2025).
Disciplined Commercial / ASO Performance
Commercial business (especially national accounts / ASO) showed healthy momentum with a productive selling season and strong retention; won 9 of 11 second-blue bids cited as evidence of sales strength.
Targeted Cost Management and Analytics
Company is scaling analytics to identify outlier utilization (e.g., SUD treatment), strengthening specialty pharmacy management and behavioral health support, and expanding care management programs to control elevated utilization trends.
Negative Updates
Membership Declines (Medicaid, Medicare, Overall)
Ended 2025 with 45.2 million members, down approximately 500,000 year-over-year (~1%); guidance expects Medicaid membership to decline ~750,000 in 2026 (same-store) and Medicare Advantage membership to decline in the high-teens percentage range in 2026 due to deliberate portfolio actions.
Medicaid Losses and Negative Margin
Expect Medicaid operating margin to be approximately negative 1.75% in 2026 (company views 2026 as a trough year) due to elevated utilization and rates that lag current experience; cost trend in Medicaid expected to be roughly twice historical average (mid-single-digit range).
Lower 2026 EPS vs FY2025 and Revenue Headwinds
2026 EPS guidance of at least $25.50 is materially below FY2025 adjusted EPS of $30.29 (driven in part by nonrecurring items in 2025); company expects operating revenue to decline in the low single-digit percent range in 2026 driven by a low double-digit percentage decline in risk-based membership.
Elevated Cost Trend and High Medical Loss Ratios
Consolidated benefit expense ratio was 93.5% for Q4 and 90.0% for the full year; company expects consolidated medical loss ratio of ~90.2% ±50 bps in 2026 as cost trends remain elevated (mid-single-digit) across major lines.
Medicare Advance Notice / Rate Pressure
Advance notice for Medicare Advantage rates was effectively flat, which management said does not keep pace with utilization and cost trends—creating pressure on benefit stability and affordability and limiting funding available to plans.
Recalibration of Long-Term Margin Targets
Long-term enterprise margin target clarified to 5%–6%; health benefits segment now targeted at mid-single-digit margins (recalibrated to reflect current business mix), and CarillonRx margin expectations adjusted lower due to upmarket and specialty business mix—indicating a more conservative long-term view.
CarillonRx Near-Term Moderation from Affiliated Membership Losses
Near-term growth in CarillonRx will be moderated by lower affiliated health plan membership; affiliated membership attrition masked some of the strong external growth, reducing near-term margin and revenue contribution from Rx dispensing.
ACA Risk and Morbidity Headwinds
Individual ACA business repositioned for higher expected morbidity after expiration of enhanced subsidies; guiding to at least 900,000 ACA members at year-end 2026 and noting retention/payment behavior will be a swing factor through April.
Company Guidance
Elevance guided to at least $25.50 adjusted diluted EPS for 2026 (after FY2025 adjusted EPS of $30.29 and Q4 EPS of $3.33, noting $3.75 per share of favorable nonrecurring items in 2025), and said revenue should decline low-single-digits while risk-based membership falls in the low double-digit percent range (Medicaid membership down ~750k, total membership ended 2025 at 45.2M, down ~500k); key 2026 financial pillars include a consolidated medical loss ratio of 90.2% ±50 bps, an adjusted operating expense ratio of 10.6% ±50 bps, operating cash flow of at least $5.5B, days in claims payable in the low‑40s (41.3 days in Q4), and ~$2.3B planned for share repurchases; line‑of‑business expectations call for Medicaid operating margin ≈ -1.75% with mid‑single‑digit cost trend, Medicare Advantage membership down high‑teens with Medicare operating margin improving to at least 2%, ACA year‑end membership of at least 900k, Carillon low‑single‑digit operating gain growth amid external revenue strength, a long‑term enterprise margin target of 5–6% and mid‑single‑digit targets for Health Benefits/CarillonRx, and a reaffirmed long‑term EPS growth algorithm of at least 12% with about two‑thirds of 2026 EPS expected in H1 (65% of that in Q1).Elevance Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong multi-year revenue growth and a generally sound balance sheet are partially offset by recent deterioration in profitability (lower net/operating margins) and a sharp drop in operating/free cash flow versus earlier years, raising near-term earnings quality and margin-recovery risk.Income Statement
Revenue has expanded steadily from 2020 to 2025, indicating solid scale and demand. However, profitability has softened recently: net margin declined from ~4.4% (2021) to ~2.8% (2025) and operating profitability is also lower versus the 2022–2024 range. Net income is slightly down versus 2021–2024 despite higher revenue, suggesting cost pressure and/or pricing mix headwinds. Overall: strong top-line trajectory, but weakening margin profile is the key watch item.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable for a large insurer, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.60–0.76 range across 2020–2025 and equity building over time (roughly $33.2B in 2020 to $43.9B in 2025). Returns on equity remain healthy (low-to-mid teens historically), though they have eased in 2025 versus prior years. The main drawback is a modest uptick in leverage and a slight decline in returns recently.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened: operating cash flow fell from ~$10.7B (2020) to ~$4.3B (2025) and free cash flow declined to ~$3.2B (2025). Free cash flow still covers a meaningful portion of earnings in 2025 (~74%), but the downward trend and negative free cash flow growth in the most recent year raise quality-of-earnings and working-capital timing concerns. Overall: still cash-generative, but momentum has deteriorated.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 198.69B | 176.81B | 171.34B | 156.59B | 138.64B |
| Gross Profit | 111.58B | 176.81B | 171.34B | 156.59B | 138.64B |
| EBITDA | 9.66B | 10.48B | 10.49B | 10.13B | 10.10B |
| Net Income | 5.66B | 5.98B | 5.99B | 5.89B | 6.16B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 121.49B | 116.89B | 108.93B | 102.75B | 97.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.49B | 33.49B | 36.14B | 33.34B | 31.15B |
| Total Debt | 32.05B | 31.23B | 25.12B | 24.11B | 23.03B |
| Total Liabilities | 77.47B | 75.46B | 69.52B | 66.42B | 61.33B |
| Stockholders Equity | 43.88B | 41.31B | 39.31B | 36.24B | 36.06B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.17B | 4.55B | 6.76B | 7.25B | 7.28B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.29B | 5.81B | 8.06B | 8.40B | 8.36B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.34B | -5.17B | -5.57B | -4.56B | -9.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.74B | 1.19B | -3.35B | -1.32B | 423.00M |
Elevance Health Technical Analysis
Negative
345.74
Price Trends
348.82
Negative
338.64
Positive
344.34
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.85
Positive
44.66
Neutral
45.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ELV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 345.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 364.67, below the 50-day MA of 348.82, and above the 200-day MA of 344.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ELV.
Elevance Health Risk Analysis
Elevance Health disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Elevance Health reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Elevance Health Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $9.23B | 11.13 | 19.71% | ― | 13.71% | -18.02% | |
69 Neutral | $23.48B | 18.43 | 7.15% | 1.38% | 9.87% | -5.58% | |
65 Neutral | $76.84B | 13.76 | 13.29% | 1.99% | 11.96% | -11.11% | |
65 Neutral | $259.91B | 22.09 | ― | 2.69% | 10.48% | 24.25% | |
62 Neutral | $94.60B | 194.51 | 0.63% | 3.41% | 6.71% | -90.11% | |
58 Neutral | $21.29B | -4.00 | -21.93% | ― | 14.92% | -286.72% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ELV
Elevance Health
345.74
-51.67
-13.00%
CNC
Centene
43.32
-21.50
-33.17%
CVS
CVS Health
74.52
20.63
38.27%
HUM
Humana
195.20
-93.76
-32.45%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
179.59
-145.77
-44.80%
UNH
UnitedHealth
286.93
-248.07
-46.37%
Elevance Health Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Elevance Health Appoints Amy Schulman as Independent Director
Positive
Dec 10, 2025
On December 10, 2025, Elevance Health announced the appointment of Amy W. Schulman as an independent director, effective January 12, 2026, with a term expiring at the 2028 annual meeting of shareholders. Schulman, a recognized healthcare executive and governance leader, will serve on the Audit and Finance Committees, bringing her expertise in healthcare innovation and regulatory strategy to the board. This appointment is part of Elevance Health’s strategy to ensure diverse and future-focused leadership, aligning with its long-term goals and stakeholder priorities. Schulman’s addition is expected to enhance the board’s ability to deliver long-term value for shareholders and improve health outcomes.
The most recent analyst rating on (ELV) stock is a Buy with a $400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Elevance Health stock, see the ELV Stock Forecast page.
Financial Disclosures
Elevance Health Reaffirms 2025 Earnings Guidance
Neutral
Nov 10, 2025
Elevance Health, Inc. has announced that its officers will engage with investors to reaffirm the company’s earnings guidance for the full year 2025. The company expects earnings to be approximately $24.70 per diluted share, including $5.30 per share of net unfavorable items, and adjusted earnings to be around $30.00 per diluted share. Additionally, the benefit expense ratio is anticipated to be approximately 90.0%. These projections are based on current market conditions and operational performance, but actual results may vary if business factors or assumptions change.
The most recent analyst rating on (ELV) stock is a Buy with a $400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Elevance Health stock, see the ELV Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.