Humana Inc (HUM)
NYSE:HUM
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Humana
(NYSE:HUM)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$188.00
▲(11.18% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is held back primarily by sharply weaker 2025 cash-flow conversion and margin compression, plus bearish technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). A moderate valuation and dividend offer partial support, but the latest call’s guidance points to significant near-term EPS pressure from the STARS headwind even as membership growth and efficiency initiatives support a longer-term recovery outlook.
Positive Factors
Membership Growth & Retention
Sustained, sizable MA membership growth and a >500bp retention improvement expand the premium base and create lasting scale. Over 2–6 months this supports revenue stability, better negotiating leverage with providers, lower per-member acquisition costs, and a firmer runway for operating leverage as transformation benefits materialize.
Negative Factors
Large STARS Funding Headwind
A structural ~$3.5B STARS headwind materially reduces expected government bonus payments and funding tied to quality scores. This directly depresses MA margins and earnings power over the next 2–6 months, forcing pricing, benefit, or provider support changes and complicating margin normalization timelines.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Membership Growth & Retention
Sustained, sizable MA membership growth and a >500bp retention improvement expand the premium base and create lasting scale. Over 2–6 months this supports revenue stability, better negotiating leverage with providers, lower per-member acquisition costs, and a firmer runway for operating leverage as transformation benefits materialize.
Read all positive factors
Humana (HUM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.30B
Dividend Yield1.38%
Average Volume (3M)1.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth9.87%
EPS Growth-5.58%
CountryUS
Employees65,680
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.96
Shares Outstanding120,054,460
10 Day Avg. Volume1,683,444
30 Day Avg. Volume1,644,261
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-18.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.24
P/FCF Ratio82.27
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$215.00Price Target Upside27.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)9.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$160.62B
Humana Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Humana Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health and well-being company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail, Group and Specialty, and Healthcare Services. The company offers medical and supplemental be...
How the Company Makes Money
Humana generates revenue primarily through its health insurance premiums, which are collected from members enrolled in its various health plans, including Medicare Advantage, Medicare Prescription Drug Plans, and employer-sponsored commercial plan...
Humana Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales figures for each business unit, indicating which areas are contributing most to growth and where there might be potential for expansion or risk.
Breaks down sales figures for each business unit, indicating which areas are contributing most to growth and where there might be potential for expansion or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHumana Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balances meaningful operational and strategic progress (notably strong membership growth, improved retention, CenterWell tailwinds, EPS outperformance in 2025, and capital efficiency gains) with significant near-term headwinds. The dominant risks are a large ~$3.5 billion STARS headwind, 2026 MA margins slightly below breakeven, and uncertainty from the advance rate notice. Management emphasizes confidence in long-term targets (2028) and has plans to adapt to funding changes, but near-term performance will be constrained by STARS and rate uncertainty.Positive Updates
Strong Membership Growth
Grew ~1,000,000 members (≈20%) in AEP; management expects individual Medicare Advantage (MA) membership to grow ≈25% for full-year 2026. New sales composition: >70% switchers (typically better economics), ~30% bounce-back members, and >75% of new sales from higher lifetime value channels (≈10 percentage point improvement YoY).
Negative Updates
Large STARS Headwind for 2026
Net STARS headwind for 2026 (individual + group MA) estimated at ~ $3.5 billion, net of contract diversification and provider offsets. Only ~45% of members expected in four-plus star plans for 2026, and ~30% of new sales are on contracts rated below four stars, increasing near-term revenue/headwind risk.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Membership Growth
Grew ~1,000,000 members (≈20%) in AEP; management expects individual Medicare Advantage (MA) membership to grow ≈25% for full-year 2026. New sales composition: >70% switchers (typically better economics), ~30% bounce-back members, and >75% of new sales from higher lifetime value channels (≈10 percentage point improvement YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Humana guided to full‑year 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $9 (versus $17.14 in 2025), expects individual MA membership to grow ~25% in 2026 after roughly 1,000,000 AEP net adds (~20%), with retention up >500 basis points YoY; management said new members will be enterprise‑accretive in 2026, noting >70% of new sales were switchers, >70% of new sales were on 4+‑star contracts (45% of total members in 4+ stars for ’26) while ~30% of new sales are on <4‑star contracts, ~30% are bounce‑backs, and >75% came from higher‑LTV channels (≈+10 ppt YoY). They flagged a net STARS headwind of ~ $3.5B for 2026 (individual + group), expect individual MA margins to be slightly below breakeven in 2026 but to double year‑over‑year when normalized for STARS (e.g., at a 95% 4+‑star mix), and forecast significant improvement in consolidated operating and admin expense ratios from operating leverage and transformation. Other metrics called out: 2025 insurance benefit ratio 90.4%; premium growth ~40% from 2024–2026 with statutory capital requirements rising <20% (capital actions offset >$3B of capital need); CenterWell/Medicaid in 13 states (DSNP +140k, +18%); debt‑to‑cap largely flat; and the company remains focused on unlocking earnings potential by 2028 and returning to top‑quartile STARS by 2028.Humana Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 129.66B | 117.81B | 106.44B | 92.92B | 83.65B |
| Gross Profit | 18.85B | 17.15B | 18.05B | 17.23B | 14.45B |
| EBITDA | 2.91B | 3.25B | 4.73B | 4.81B | 4.46B |
| Net Income | 1.19B | 1.21B | 2.49B | 2.81B | 2.93B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 48.75B | 46.31B | 46.89B | 43.73B | 44.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.20B | 2.22B | 4.69B | 5.06B | 3.39B |
| Total Debt | 12.94B | 12.26B | 12.27B | 11.75B | 13.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 31.01B | 29.87B | 30.57B | 28.36B | 28.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.66B | 16.38B | 16.26B | 15.31B | 16.08B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 375.00M | 2.39B | 2.98B | 3.45B | 920.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 921.00M | 2.97B | 3.98B | 4.59B | 2.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.27B | -2.95B | -3.49B | -1.01B | -6.56B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.22B | -2.49B | -856.00M | -1.91B | 3.02B |
Humana Technical Analysis
Negative
169.09
Price Trends
192.82
Negative
223.22
Negative
242.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.95
Negative
39.44
Neutral
75.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HUM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 169.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 172.79, below the 50-day MA of 192.82, and below the 200-day MA of 242.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HUM.
Humana Risk Analysis
Humana disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Humana reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Humana Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $69.03B | 12.29 | 14.53% | 2.21% | 16.75% | 113.48% | |
64 Neutral | $63.21B | 13.73 | 13.01% | 1.99% | 11.96% | -11.11% | |
63 Neutral | $235.11B | 24.92 | 12.70% | 2.69% | 10.48% | 24.25% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $15.74B | -3.03 | -27.74% | ― | 14.92% | -286.72% | |
49 Neutral | $6.90B | 18.68 | 10.99% | ― | 13.71% | -18.02% | |
47 Neutral | $20.30B | -9.68 | 6.59% | 1.38% | 9.87% | -5.58% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
HUM
Humana
169.09
-91.40
-35.09%
CNC
Centene
32.00
-28.71
-47.29%
CI
Cigna
261.96
-60.22
-18.69%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
134.03
-195.36
-59.31%
UNH
UnitedHealth
259.02
-250.37
-49.15%
ELV
Elevance Health
286.39
-139.48
-32.75%
Humana Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Humana Reaffirms 2026 Earnings Guidance in Investor Meetings
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Between March 2 and March 31, 2026, Humana’s senior management planned to meet with investors and analysts to discuss the company’s outlook for the year ending December 31, 2026. During these meetings, the company said it would reaffir...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Humana Issues 2026 Guidance Amid Medicare Advantage Headwinds
Negative
Feb 11, 2026
Humana reported that for the fourth quarter of 2025 it posted a GAAP net loss per share of $6.61 and an adjusted net loss per share of $3.96, while full-year 2025 GAAP EPS came in at $9.84 and adjusted EPS at $17.14, broadly in line with managemen...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Humana Announces Leadership Changes Effective January 2026
Neutral
Dec 16, 2025
On December 16, 2025, Humana announced the retirement of George Renaudin, Insurance Segment President, by Q3 2026 after a 29-year career. Aaron Martin will join as President of Medicare Advantage in January 2026 and succeed Renaudin as Insurance S...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.