Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)
NYSE:MOH
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Molina Healthcare
(NYSE:MOH)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$191.00
▲(28.21% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/11/26
The score is held back primarily by pressured recent fundamentals (revenue/margin reset and volatile cash flow) and an expensive valuation (very high P/E). These are partly offset by strong technical momentum and a steady-but-cautious earnings outlook with reaffirmed guidance despite membership, margin, and leverage risks.
Positive Factors
Stable government‑paid revenue base
Molina’s core business is capitated Medicaid and Medicare plans paid by states/CMS, providing recurring per‑member premiums and structural revenue visibility. That business model supports stable long‑term cash inflows and scale advantages in provider contracting over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage vs. historical target
Leverage materially exceeds the company's prior low‑40s target, reducing financial flexibility for capex, IT investments and M&A. Elevated debt burdens increase sensitivity to earnings volatility and could constrain strategic optionality if margins remain compressed or if execution costs on large programs persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable government‑paid revenue base
Molina’s core business is capitated Medicaid and Medicare plans paid by states/CMS, providing recurring per‑member premiums and structural revenue visibility. That business model supports stable long‑term cash inflows and scale advantages in provider contracting over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Molina Healthcare Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Members
Tracks the total number of individuals enrolled in Molina Healthcare plans, indicating market reach and potential revenue base.
Tracks the total number of individuals enrolled in Molina Healthcare plans, indicating market reach and potential revenue base.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMolina Healthcare (MOH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.44B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)121.4
Beta (1Y)0.06
Revenue Growth7.72%
EPS Growth-83.64%
CountryUS
Employees18,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.35
Shares Outstanding52,100,000
10 Day Avg. Volume926,959
30 Day Avg. Volume1,222,866
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)2.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-13.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$174.36Price Target Upside17.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)5.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.25B
Molina Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed health care services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketpla...
How the Company Makes Money
Molina primarily makes money by operating managed health plans and receiving premium revenue to assume medical cost risk for enrolled members. Its largest revenue stream is typically Medicaid managed care: state Medicaid agencies pay Molina a per-...
Molina Healthcare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but ultimately balanced picture: solid first-quarter operating and financial results (EPS beat, disciplined medical cost performance, strong cash flow, progress on Medicare duals, and a major new contract) were offset by meaningful near-term challenges (higher Medicaid membership attrition, thin Medicaid margins, MAPD drag and exit, elevated leverage, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty). Management is cautiously optimistic — reaffirming full-year guidance while seeking additional confirmation in Q2 before raising targets and emphasizing prudent execution on new large implementations.Positive Updates
Strong First Quarter Financials
Reported adjusted EPS of $2.35 and $10.2 billion of premium revenue for Q1 2026; consolidated medical cost ratio (MCR) of 91.1% and adjusted pretax margin of 1.6% for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Higher-Than-Expected Medicaid Membership Attrition
Same-store Medicaid membership attrition guidance increased from a 2% decline to a 6% decline for 2026 (now expecting ~4.5 million Medicaid members year-end); management expects revenue loss to be offset by higher Marketplace revenue but membership headcount risk remains significant.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong First Quarter Financials
Reported adjusted EPS of $2.35 and $10.2 billion of premium revenue for Q1 2026; consolidated medical cost ratio (MCR) of 91.1% and adjusted pretax margin of 1.6% for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Molina reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance of approximately $42.0 billion of premium revenue and at least $5.00 of adjusted EPS after reporting Q1 results of $10.2 billion of premium revenue, $2.35 adjusted EPS and a consolidated MCR of 91.1% (Q1 Medicaid MCR 92.0%, Medicare MCR 89.8%, Marketplace MCR 84.0; Marketplace adjusted for prior‑year items ~79.5%). For 2026 the company expects Medicaid same‑store membership to decline ~6% to roughly 4.5 million, full‑year Medicaid MCR of 92.9% (assumes 4% rate increases and a 5% medical cost trend), Medicare MCR ~94% (current duals run‑rate ~$5.5B at ~94% MLR; MAPD ~ $1.2B of revenue producing ~$1.00 loss that will be exited), Marketplace full‑year MCR 85.5% with year‑end membership ~250,000 (Q1 305,000; 70% renewals), and a full‑year G&A ratio of ~6.4%. Management reiterated a 5% medical cost trend assumption for 2026 (vs. 7.5% in 2025 that included ~250 bps of acuity shift), noted possible off‑cycle/retro state rate updates as upside, highlighted embedded earnings of ~$2.50 per share (MAPD losses + Florida CMS implementation) and a Florida CMS run‑rate of ~ $6B, and cited Q1 balance‑sheet metrics including ~$35M of subsidiary dividends harvested, parent cash ~$213M (forecasted to exceed $600M by year‑end), Q1 operating cash flow ~$1.1B, debt ~6.1x TTM EBITDA, debt‑to‑cap ~48%, and days in claims payable of 44.Molina Healthcare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 45.08B | 45.43B | 40.65B | 34.07B | 31.97B | 27.77B |
| Gross Profit | 4.32B | 4.08B | 4.74B | 4.33B | 3.93B | 3.28B |
| EBITDA | 617.00M | 976.00M | 1.89B | 1.74B | 1.35B | 1.13B |
| Net Income | 188.00M | 472.00M | 1.18B | 1.09B | 792.00M | 659.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.39B | 15.56B | 15.63B | 14.89B | 12.31B | 12.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.31B | 4.25B | 8.99B | 9.11B | 7.50B | 7.64B |
| Total Debt | 3.95B | 3.95B | 3.12B | 2.38B | 2.39B | 2.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.31B | 11.49B | 11.13B | 10.68B | 9.35B | 9.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.08B | 4.07B | 4.50B | 4.21B | 2.96B | 2.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 251.00M | -636.00M | 544.00M | 1.58B | 682.00M | 2.04B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 357.00M | -535.00M | 644.00M | 1.66B | 773.00M | 2.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 446.00M | 312.00M | -464.00M | -744.00M | -790.00M | -1.65B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -337.00M | -170.00M | -347.00M | -58.00M | -441.00M | -183.00M |
Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis
Positive
148.97
Price Trends
162.77
Positive
163.68
Positive
166.08
Positive
Market Momentum
5.39
Positive
56.59
Neutral
32.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 148.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.44, below the 50-day MA of 162.77, and below the 200-day MA of 166.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MOH.
Molina Healthcare Risk Analysis
Molina Healthcare disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Molina Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Molina Healthcare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $74.60B | 10.59 | 15.16% | 2.21% | 9.30% | 30.22% | |
75 Outperform | $84.65B | 9.15 | 11.95% | 1.99% | 9.44% | -8.53% | |
70 Outperform | $36.46B | 4.40 | 6.19% | 1.38% | 14.08% | -33.82% | |
69 Neutral | $119.07B | 7.77 | 3.87% | 3.41% | 7.68% | -45.09% | |
63 Neutral | $28.53B | 2.61 | -28.72% | ― | 17.02% | -294.77% | |
55 Neutral | $9.44B | 121.40 | 4.44% | ― | 7.72% | -83.64% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MOH
Molina Healthcare
184.14
-121.09
-39.67%
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59.14
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CI
Cigna
286.24
-23.20
-7.50%
CVS
CVS Health
93.26
34.58
58.92%
HUM
Humana
307.95
86.52
39.07%
ELV
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394.69
30.20
8.29%
Molina Healthcare Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Molina Healthcare Shareholders Approve Governance and Bylaw Changes
Positive
May 11, 2026
At its May 6, 2026 annual meeting, Molina Healthcare shareholders approved an amendment to the company’s certificate of incorporation allowing stockholders holding at least 20% of voting power, and meeting one-year ownership and disclosure r...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Molina Healthcare Unveils Long-Term Strategy at Investor Day
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 8, 2026, Molina Healthcare hosted its Investor Day Conference, where management outlined long-term financial targets and detailed strategic and operational plans, including growth expectations and cost trends across its Medicaid, Medicare, ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Molina Healthcare Reaffirms 2026 Earnings Guidance to Investors
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Molina Healthcare said its senior management will meet investors and analysts in early March 2026, including at TD Cowen’s 46th Annual Health Care Conference on March 3, 2026, where it plans to reaffirm its 2026 full-year GAAP diluted EPS gu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.