Molina Healthcare (MOH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.64B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.93M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.0
• Beta (1Y): -0.08
• Revenue Growth: 13.71%
• EPS Growth: -18.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): -2.75
• Shares Outstanding: 51,500,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,561,383
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,928,570
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.19
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.67
• 1Y Price Target: $158.93
• Price Target Upside: 8.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.72
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $45.46B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $145.00 ▼(-0.93% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is primarily held back by weakened 2025 financial quality (sharp margin compression and negative operating/free cash flow) and bearish technical trends. Partially offsetting this are a reasonable valuation (P/E ~17) and earnings-call positives around Medicaid contract wins and embedded earnings, though near-term guidance remains pressured by medical cost and segment headwinds.

Positive Factors

Medicaid Scale & Margin Advantage

Molina's large Medicaid footprint and materially higher Medicaid margins versus peers represent a durable competitive advantage. Scale across state programs creates sticky membership, stronger negotiating leverage with providers and states, and structural margin support that persists beyond short-term cycles.

Strong RFP Pipeline & Win Rates

A large embedded earnings backlog and a deep ~$50B RFP pipeline, combined with very high renewal/new-contract win rates, provide durable revenue visibility. Consistent contract wins translate into multi-year premium stability and predictable future earnings as state contracts roll in.

Sustained Revenue Growth and Scale

Multi-year top-line scaling demonstrates successful execution and market penetration. That scale spreads fixed costs, strengthens bargaining power with providers and states, and supports long-term investment capacity and operational leverage even as margins face cyclical headwinds.

Negative Factors

Sharply Weakened Cash Generation

A swing to significant operating and free cash outflows reduces Molina's self-funding ability and increases reliance on external financing. Prolonged negative cash generation can constrain reserve building, limit investments in care management, and elevate refinancing and liquidity risk if earnings recovery is slower than expected.

Rising Leverage & Covenant Relief

Increased leverage and the need for covenant amendments signal reduced financial flexibility. Higher debt amplifies sensitivity to prolonged margin compression, limits capital allocation optionality, and raises refinancing/interest risks if cash flows do not normalize, making recovery more difficult.

Structural Medical Cost & Product Headwinds

Sustained elevated utilization across pharmacy, behavioral health and LTSS and a higher-than-expected medical trend create persistent cost pressure. Combined with Marketplace losses and Medicare product challenges (MAPD exit), these structural cost and product mix issues can depress margins until pricing or utilization normalizes.

Molina Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed health care services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. As of December 31, 2021, the company served the company served approximately 5.2 million members eligible for Medicaid, Medicare, and other government-sponsored healthcare programs in 18 states. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Molina Healthcare generates revenue primarily through premiums paid by state and federal governments for the health insurance coverage provided to its members under Medicaid and Medicare programs. The company enters into contracts with state Medicaid programs to provide managed care services to eligible populations, receiving per-member-per-month (PMPM) payments for these services. Additional revenue streams include risk adjustment payments based on the health status of enrolled members and service fees for administrative and care coordination services. Molina also benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers and community organizations to enhance care delivery and improve patient outcomes, which can lead to cost savings and increased member retention, ultimately contributing to its earnings.

Molina Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth is outweighed by a clear 2025 deterioration: margins compressed materially, leverage increased, and operating/free cash flow turned negative, raising near-term financial-quality risk.

Income Statement

Revenue scaled strongly over the last several years (from ~$19.4B in 2020 to ~$45.4B in 2025), showing solid top-line momentum. However, profitability deteriorated materially in the latest year: net margin fell to ~1.0% in 2025 (vs ~2.9% in 2024) and operating margin also compressed, signaling pressure on pricing, medical costs, or operating expenses. Overall, growth is a clear strength, but the sharp margin step-down in 2025 is a key weakness to monitor.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased in the latest year, with debt-to-equity rising to ~1.0 in 2025 (up from ~0.69 in 2024), reducing financial flexibility. Returns on equity also fell to ~11.6% in 2025 (from ~26% in 2024), consistent with the earnings decline. The balance sheet is not overstretched, but the trend is moving in the wrong direction as debt rose while equity declined.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened sharply in 2025: operating cash flow turned negative (-$535M) and free cash flow also turned negative (-$636M) after positive results in prior years. This reversal is a notable risk because it reduces self-funding capacity and can increase reliance on financing if sustained. While cash flow has historically been solid (strongly positive in 2020–2024), the latest year’s negative swing is a major red flag.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	45.43B	40.65B	34.07B	31.97B	27.77B
Gross Profit	4.61B	4.74B	4.33B	3.93B	3.28B
EBITDA	996.00M	1.89B	1.74B	1.35B	1.13B
Net Income	472.00M	1.18B	1.09B	792.00M	659.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.56B	15.63B	14.89B	12.31B	12.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.25B	8.99B	9.11B	7.50B	7.64B
Total Debt	3.95B	3.12B	2.38B	2.39B	2.39B
Total Liabilities	11.49B	11.13B	10.68B	9.35B	9.58B
Stockholders Equity	4.07B	4.50B	4.21B	2.96B	2.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-636.00M	544.00M	1.58B	682.00M	2.04B
Operating Cash Flow	-535.00M	644.00M	1.66B	773.00M	2.12B
Investing Cash Flow	312.00M	-464.00M	-744.00M	-790.00M	-1.65B
Financing Cash Flow	-170.00M	-347.00M	-58.00M	-441.00M	-183.00M

Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 146.36
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 146.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 151.27, below the 50-day MA of 167.82, and below the 200-day MA of 194.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOH.

Molina Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CI	73 Outperform	$75.06B	12.67	14.40%	2.21%	16.75%	113.48%
ELV	64 Neutral	$72.20B	12.98	13.29%	1.99%	11.96%	-11.11%
CVS	55 Neutral	$94.37B	53.33	2.35%	3.41%	6.71%	-90.11%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CNC	51 Neutral	$20.84B	-3.13	-28.79%	―	14.92%	-286.72%
MOH	49 Neutral	$7.64B	17.02	11.02%	―	13.71%	-18.02%
HUM	46 Neutral	$21.06B	17.76	6.98%	1.38%	9.87%	-5.58%

Molina Healthcare Corporate Events

Molina Healthcare Reaffirms 2026 Earnings Guidance to Investors

Molina Healthcare said its senior management will meet investors and analysts in early March 2026, including at TD Cowen’s 46th Annual Health Care Conference on March 3, 2026, where it plans to reaffirm its 2026 full-year GAAP diluted EPS guidance of at least $3.20 and adjusted diluted EPS of at least $5.00. The company also scheduled its first-quarter 2026 earnings release for April 22, 2026, with a conference call on April 23, 2026, and announced it will host an Investor Day on May 8, 2026, providing multiple upcoming forums for shareholders to assess its performance and outlook.

Live webcasts and 30-day replays of Molina’s March 3 conference appearance, the April 23 earnings call, and the May 8 Investor Day will be available via its investor relations website, underscoring the company’s effort to maintain ongoing communication with the market. By reaffirming earnings guidance and outlining this investor engagement schedule, Molina signals confidence in its 2026 financial trajectory and offers stakeholders structured opportunities to scrutinize its strategy and results.

The most recent analyst rating on (MOH) stock is a Hold with a $155.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Molina Healthcare stock, see the MOH Stock Forecast page.

Molina Healthcare Announces Impairment Charge Amid Medicare Shift

On February 4, 2026, Molina Healthcare, Inc. amended its existing credit agreement with its lenders and Truist Bank, temporarily easing its quarterly minimum interest coverage ratio from 3.00x to a stepped schedule ranging from 1.75x through 2.75x for reporting periods between the first quarter of 2026 and the third quarter of 2027, which provides the company with additional financial flexibility under its debt covenants. On February 5, 2026, the company determined it will record an estimated non-cash, pre-tax impairment charge of approximately $93 million in the first quarter of 2026 related to certain intangible assets, driven by its decision to exit the Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug product for 2027 as it refocuses its Medicare strategy exclusively on dual-eligible members, with the impairment charge to be excluded from adjusted net income.

The most recent analyst rating on (MOH) stock is a Sell with a $164.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Molina Healthcare stock, see the MOH Stock Forecast page.