Molina Healthcare (MOH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.66B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.3
• Beta (1Y): -0.09
• Revenue Growth: 13.71%
• EPS Growth: -18.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): 5.48
• Shares Outstanding: 51,400,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,442,293
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,753,743
• PEG Ratio: 1.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 30.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.85
• 1Y Price Target: $175.69
• Price Target Upside: 5.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $172.00 ▲(3.30% Upside)

Molina Healthcare's overall score is driven by strong corporate events and a favorable valuation, indicating potential for growth. However, financial performance and technical indicators highlight challenges with profitability and bearish momentum, which could impact short-term performance.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand and effective market expansion, enhancing Molina's competitive position and long-term sustainability.

Major Medicaid Contract

Securing a major Medicaid contract in Florida strengthens Molina's market presence and is expected to significantly boost revenue and member base.

Financial Flexibility

The senior notes offering improves Molina's financial flexibility, allowing it to manage debt effectively and support strategic initiatives.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Declining profit margins indicate rising costs or pricing pressures, which could impact long-term profitability and financial health.

Cash Flow Weakness

Weak cash flow suggests inefficiencies in converting earnings into cash, posing risks to liquidity and operational flexibility.

Rising Costs Impacting Margins

Increasing costs are squeezing margins, potentially affecting Molina's ability to invest in growth and maintain competitive pricing.

Molina Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed health care services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. As of December 31, 2021, the company served the company served approximately 5.2 million members eligible for Medicaid, Medicare, and other government-sponsored healthcare programs in 18 states. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Molina Healthcare generates revenue primarily through premiums paid by state and federal governments for the health insurance coverage provided to its members under Medicaid and Medicare programs. The company enters into contracts with state Medicaid programs to provide managed care services to eligible populations, receiving per-member-per-month (PMPM) payments for these services. Additional revenue streams include risk adjustment payments based on the health status of enrolled members and service fees for administrative and care coordination services. Molina also benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers and community organizations to enhance care delivery and improve patient outcomes, which can lead to cost savings and increased member retention, ultimately contributing to its earnings.

Molina Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Molina Healthcare shows strong revenue growth but faces challenges in profitability and cash flow. Rising costs are impacting margins, and increased leverage could pose risks if not managed effectively. The negative cash flow trends are concerning for long-term financial health.

Income Statement

Molina Healthcare has shown strong revenue growth with a 24.54% increase in the TTM period, indicating robust demand and expansion. However, the gross profit margin has decreased to 8.19% from previous years, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures. The net profit margin also declined to 1.63%, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these pressures, the company maintains a positive EBIT and EBITDA margin, though both have decreased compared to prior periods.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.92 in the TTM period indicates a moderate level of leverage, which is manageable but has increased from previous years. Return on equity has decreased to 20.07%, suggesting a decline in profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains stable, indicating a solid capital structure despite the increased debt levels.

Cash Flow

Molina Healthcare's cash flow position has weakened, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period. The free cash flow growth rate is significantly negative, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in converting earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, suggesting some ability to generate cash relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.07B	40.65B	34.07B	31.97B	27.77B	19.42B
Gross Profit	4.43B	4.74B	4.33B	3.93B	3.28B	2.68B
EBITDA	1.52B	1.89B	1.74B	1.35B	1.13B	1.15B
Net Income	883.00M	1.18B	1.09B	792.00M	659.00M	673.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.70B	15.63B	14.89B	12.31B	12.21B	9.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.45B	8.99B	9.11B	7.50B	7.64B	6.03B
Total Debt	3.85B	3.12B	2.38B	2.39B	2.39B	2.35B
Total Liabilities	11.51B	11.13B	10.68B	9.35B	9.58B	7.44B
Stockholders Equity	4.19B	4.50B	4.21B	2.96B	2.63B	2.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-574.00M	544.00M	1.58B	682.00M	2.04B	1.82B
Operating Cash Flow	-461.00M	644.00M	1.66B	773.00M	2.12B	1.89B
Investing Cash Flow	101.00M	-464.00M	-744.00M	-790.00M	-1.65B	-400.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-195.00M	-347.00M	-58.00M	-441.00M	-183.00M	217.00M

Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 166.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 166.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 149.91, above the 50-day MA of 162.29, and below the 200-day MA of 233.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MOH.

Molina Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELV	76 Outperform	$79.80B	14.69	12.61%	1.90%	11.96%	-11.11%
CI	72 Outperform	$73.38B	12.12	14.65%	2.18%	16.75%	113.48%
MOH	71 Outperform	$8.66B	10.32	19.71%	―	13.71%	-18.02%
HUM	69 Neutral	$32.29B	25.16	7.15%	1.29%	9.87%	-5.58%
CVS	64 Neutral	$100.82B	207.53	0.63%	3.34%	6.71%	-90.11%
CNC	58 Neutral	$20.08B	-3.74	-21.93%	―	14.92%	-286.72%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Molina Healthcare Corporate Events

Molina Healthcare Completes $850M Senior Notes Offering

On November 20, 2025, Molina Healthcare completed a private offering of $850 million in senior notes due 2031, bearing an interest rate of 6.500% per annum. The net proceeds of approximately $838 million are intended for general corporate purposes, including repaying outstanding delayed draw term loans. This financial maneuver is part of Molina’s strategic efforts to manage its debt and strengthen its financial position.

Molina Healthcare Prices $850M Senior Notes Offering

On November 17, 2025, Molina Healthcare announced the pricing of $850 million in senior notes due 2031, with a 6.500% interest rate, to be sold in a private offering. The net proceeds, estimated at $838 million, will be used for general corporate purposes, including repaying outstanding loans, impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

Molina Healthcare Announces $750M Senior Notes Offering

On November 17, 2025, Molina Healthcare announced its intention to privately offer $750 million in senior notes due 2031, subject to market conditions. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repay outstanding delayed draw term loans under its existing credit agreement. Following this repayment, Molina plans to terminate its existing credit facility and replace it with a new revolving credit facility, which will have terms favorable to the company. The new facility will be undrawn at close and available for general corporate purposes. This strategic financial maneuver is aimed at enhancing Molina’s financial flexibility and operational capacity.

Molina Healthcare Secures Major Florida Medicaid Contract

On November 14, 2025, Molina Healthcare announced that the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration intends to award it a contract to provide Statewide Medicaid Managed Care and Children’s Health Insurance Program services. This contract, expected to serve approximately 120,000 enrollees, further solidifies Molina’s position as a trusted provider for complex healthcare needs, with anticipated premiums of about $5 billion for 2025 and a term continuing through December 31, 2030.