Molina Healthcare (MOH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.64B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): -0.08
• Revenue Growth: 13.71%
• EPS Growth: -18.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): -2.75
• Shares Outstanding: 51,500,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,806,803
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,880,822
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.19
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.23
• 1Y Price Target: $158.93
• Price Target Upside: 7.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.72
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $45.46B

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $155.00 ▲(4.51% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is primarily held back by weakening fundamentals (2025 margin compression and a swing to negative operating/free cash flow) and a strongly bearish technical setup (price far below major moving averages with negative MACD). A moderate P/E offers some support, but cautious 2026 guidance with meaningful near-term drags limits confidence despite long-term contract wins and embedded earnings potential.

Positive Factors

Scale & Revenue Growth

Molina's large revenue scale and multi‑year growth establish durable market presence with heavy government contracting. Scale supports fixed‑cost absorption, provider leverage, and investment in care coordination, strengthening long‑term service delivery and revenue resilience.

High RFP Win Rates & Pipeline

A sizable embedded earnings backlog and a ~ $50B RFP pipeline, plus ~90% renewal win rates, indicate repeatable contract acquisition and retention. That persistent pipeline provides predictable future premium flow and supports long‑term member growth and margin recovery.

Market‑leading Medicaid Position

Medicaid dominance with stronger relative Medicaid margins implies a structural competitive advantage in the primary product line. Heavy Medicaid exposure and margin leadership create a durable moat tied to state contracting, care management expertise, and predictable premium streams.

Negative Factors

Negative Operating & Free Cash Flow

The 2025 swing to negative OCF and FCF materially weakens internal funding capacity. Sustained cash outflows constrain reserve funding, capital for new contracts or care programs, and increase reliance on external financing, raising liquidity and execution risk over coming quarters.

Sharp Margin Compression

A steep drop in profitability reduces buffers for medical cost inflation and unexpected retro adjustments. Lower margins make earnings and cash highly sensitive to utilization, pharmacy and behavioral trends, and limit the firm's ability to absorb startup costs for new contracts without recurring profit recovery.

Higher Leverage & Covenant Relief

Elevated leverage and the need for covenant amendments indicate reduced financial flexibility. Higher debt burdens raise interest and refinancing risk, constrain strategic choices, and could force austerity if earnings or cash flow recovery lags, increasing downside over the medium term.

Molina Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed health care services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. As of December 31, 2021, the company served the company served approximately 5.2 million members eligible for Medicaid, Medicare, and other government-sponsored healthcare programs in 18 states. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Molina Healthcare generates revenue primarily through premiums paid by state and federal governments for the health insurance coverage provided to its members under Medicaid and Medicare programs. The company enters into contracts with state Medicaid programs to provide managed care services to eligible populations, receiving per-member-per-month (PMPM) payments for these services. Additional revenue streams include risk adjustment payments based on the health status of enrolled members and service fees for administrative and care coordination services. Molina also benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers and community organizations to enhance care delivery and improve patient outcomes, which can lead to cost savings and increased member retention, ultimately contributing to its earnings.

Molina Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth is outweighed by a clear 2025 deterioration in financial quality: profitability compressed sharply (net margin ~1.0% vs ~2.9% in 2024), leverage rose (debt-to-equity ~1.0 vs ~0.69), and operating/free cash flow turned negative (OCF -$535M; FCF -$636M).

Income Statement

Revenue scaled strongly over the last several years (from ~$19.4B in 2020 to ~$45.4B in 2025), showing solid top-line momentum. However, profitability deteriorated materially in the latest year: net margin fell to ~1.0% in 2025 (vs ~2.9% in 2024) and operating margin also compressed, signaling pressure on pricing, medical costs, or operating expenses. Overall, growth is a clear strength, but the sharp margin step-down in 2025 is a key weakness to monitor.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased in the latest year, with debt-to-equity rising to ~1.0 in 2025 (up from ~0.69 in 2024), reducing financial flexibility. Returns on equity also fell to ~11.6% in 2025 (from ~26% in 2024), consistent with the earnings decline. The balance sheet is not overstretched, but the trend is moving in the wrong direction as debt rose while equity declined.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened sharply in 2025: operating cash flow turned negative (-$535M) and free cash flow also turned negative (-$636M) after positive results in prior years. This reversal is a notable risk because it reduces self-funding capacity and can increase reliance on financing if sustained. While cash flow has historically been solid (strongly positive in 2020–2024), the latest year’s negative swing is a major red flag.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	45.43B	40.65B	34.07B	31.97B	27.77B
Gross Profit	4.61B	4.74B	4.33B	3.93B	3.28B
EBITDA	996.00M	1.89B	1.74B	1.35B	1.13B
Net Income	472.00M	1.18B	1.09B	792.00M	659.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.56B	15.63B	14.89B	12.31B	12.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.25B	8.99B	9.11B	7.50B	7.64B
Total Debt	3.95B	3.12B	2.38B	2.39B	2.39B
Total Liabilities	11.49B	11.13B	10.68B	9.35B	9.58B
Stockholders Equity	4.07B	4.50B	4.21B	2.96B	2.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-636.00M	544.00M	1.58B	682.00M	2.04B
Operating Cash Flow	-535.00M	644.00M	1.66B	773.00M	2.12B
Investing Cash Flow	312.00M	-464.00M	-744.00M	-790.00M	-1.65B
Financing Cash Flow	-170.00M	-347.00M	-58.00M	-441.00M	-183.00M

Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 148.31
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 148.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 155.23, below the 50-day MA of 168.69, and below the 200-day MA of 196.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.13 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOH.

Molina Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CI	72 Outperform	$75.06B	12.77	14.40%	2.21%	16.75%	113.48%
ELV	65 Neutral	$72.20B	13.32	13.29%	1.99%	11.96%	-11.11%
CVS	55 Neutral	$94.37B	55.36	2.35%	3.41%	6.71%	-90.11%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CNC	51 Neutral	$20.84B	-3.11	-28.79%	―	14.92%	-286.72%
MOH	48 Neutral	$7.64B	17.34	11.02%	―	13.71%	-18.02%
HUM	46 Neutral	$21.06B	18.42	6.98%	1.38%	9.87%	-5.58%

Molina Healthcare Corporate Events

Molina Healthcare Announces Impairment Charge Amid Medicare Shift

On February 4, 2026, Molina Healthcare, Inc. amended its existing credit agreement with its lenders and Truist Bank, temporarily easing its quarterly minimum interest coverage ratio from 3.00x to a stepped schedule ranging from 1.75x through 2.75x for reporting periods between the first quarter of 2026 and the third quarter of 2027, which provides the company with additional financial flexibility under its debt covenants. On February 5, 2026, the company determined it will record an estimated non-cash, pre-tax impairment charge of approximately $93 million in the first quarter of 2026 related to certain intangible assets, driven by its decision to exit the Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug product for 2027 as it refocuses its Medicare strategy exclusively on dual-eligible members, with the impairment charge to be excluded from adjusted net income.

The most recent analyst rating on (MOH) stock is a Sell with a $164.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Molina Healthcare stock, see the MOH Stock Forecast page.