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Molina Healthcare (MOH)
NYSE:MOH
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Molina Healthcare (MOH) AI Stock Analysis

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MOH

Molina Healthcare

(NYSE:MOH)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$169.00
▲(6.81%Upside)
The overall stock score of 63 reflects strong financial performance and potential undervaluation, counterbalanced by bearish technical signals and cautious sentiment from the recent earnings call due to revised earnings guidance and cost pressures.
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Molina Healthcare's pre-announced Q2 results are worse than expectations, leading to a cut in 2025 guidance by 10% due to persistent high-cost trends.
Guidance
Molina Healthcare lowered its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance by approximately 10% at the midpoint, signaling financial challenges.
Medical Loss Ratio
The updated guidance indicates a higher Consolidated Medical Loss Ratio, with significant increases in the Marketplace, Medicaid, and Medicare Advantage sectors.

Molina Healthcare (MOH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Molina Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMolina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed health care services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. As of December 31, 2021, the company served the company served approximately 5.2 million members eligible for Medicaid, Medicare, and other government-sponsored healthcare programs in 18 states. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyMolina Healthcare generates revenue primarily through premium payments received for the health insurance plans it provides under government programs such as Medicaid and Medicare. The company contracts with state governments to manage care for Medicaid beneficiaries, receiving a fixed amount per member per month, which is known as a capitation payment. For Medicare, Molina offers plans under the Medicare Advantage program, receiving payments from the federal government. Additionally, Molina participates in the Health Insurance Marketplace, offering plans to individuals and families who do not qualify for Medicaid or Medicare. Key revenue streams include the capitation payments for Medicaid and Medicare members, as well as premium payments from Marketplace members. Molina's profitability is influenced by its ability to manage medical costs effectively and maintain a robust provider network.

Molina Healthcare Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Members
Total Members
Tracks the total number of individuals enrolled in Molina Healthcare plans, indicating market reach and potential revenue base.
Chart InsightsMolina Healthcare's total membership has shown a strong recovery in 2024, driven by strategic contract wins and acquisitions, despite a dip in late 2023. The recent earnings call highlights a robust growth trajectory with new contracts in key states and a projected 9% premium revenue increase for 2025. However, the loss of the Virginia contract and higher medical costs pose challenges. The company's focus on expanding its Marketplace segment, expected to grow by 60%, underscores its strategy to diversify and strengthen its membership base.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Molina Healthcare Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -16.84%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Molina Healthcare's earnings call reflected a mixed outlook. The company highlighted strong revenue growth and effective cost management strategies, but faced challenges with revised earnings guidance, elevated medical cost trends, and pressures in the Medicaid and Marketplace segments. The overall sentiment of the call leans towards caution and uncertainty amidst efforts to manage costs and adjust to evolving market conditions.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Reported approximately $11 billion in total revenue for the second quarter with premium revenue of $10.9 billion, showing consistent revenue performance.
Effective Medical Cost Management
Despite a challenging medical cost trend environment, Molina's cost management strategies moderated trends, maintaining a consolidated MCR of 90.4%.
Growth Initiatives on Track
Molina remains on track to achieve its premium revenue target of $46 billion in 2026 and $52 billion in 2027, supported by recent Medicaid and Medicare duals RFP wins.
Strong Balance Sheet
Maintained a robust capital foundation with a debt-to-capital ratio of about 43% and a debt level reduced by approximately $200 million.
Negative Updates
Revised Earnings Guidance
Full year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance revised down to no less than $19 per share, below the initial guidance of $24.50 and the recent midpoint of $22.
Medicaid Medical Cost Pressure
Second quarter Medicaid MCR of 91.3% was higher than expectations due to pressures in behavioral, pharmacy, and inpatient/outpatient care settings.
Marketplace Segment Challenges
Second quarter Marketplace MCR of 85.4% was much higher than expected, with utilization rates significantly increased relative to risk adjustment revenue.
Elevated Utilization Trends
Higher utilization trends observed across all segments, notably in Medicare and Marketplace, driven by high-acuity populations and elevated risk pool acuities.
Cost Trend Uncertainty
Persistent and elevated medical cost trends across segments, raising uncertainty about future trends and their impact on margins.
Company Guidance
During Molina Healthcare's second quarter 2025 earnings call, several key metrics were discussed as part of the company's guidance update. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $5.48 on $10.9 billion of premium revenue, with a consolidated Medical Care Ratio (MCR) of 90.4%, reflecting a challenging medical cost trend environment. The adjusted pre-tax margin was 3.3%, while the year-to-date consolidated MCR stood at 89.8%, and the adjusted pre-tax margin was 3.6%. For 2025, the full-year premium revenue guidance remains at approximately $42 billion, but the adjusted earnings per share guidance was revised down to no less than $19 per share, indicating a reduction from the initial guidance of $24.50 due to new information from the June close process and implications for the second half of the year, particularly related to the Marketplace segment. The full-year guidance now reflects a consolidated MCR and pre-tax margin of 90.2% and 3.1%, respectively. Molina also highlighted the impact of various factors, including the recently enacted budget bill and its potential effects on Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace programs, as well as the company's strategic focus on growth initiatives, revenue targets for 2026 and 2027, and opportunities for mergers and acquisitions.

Molina Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Molina Healthcare has demonstrated strong financial performance with solid revenue and profit growth, effective cost management, and robust cash flow generation. However, attention is needed for potential cash flow volatility.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Molina Healthcare has shown strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) increase from the previous year. The company maintains a solid gross profit margin and net profit margin indicating effective cost management and profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, illustrating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a healthy equity ratio, showing that a substantial portion of the company's assets are financed by shareholders' equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced financial leverage. Return on equity is strong, highlighting effective use of equity to generate profits.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
The cash flow statement indicates a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio, reflecting good cash generation from operations. Free cash flow is consistently positive, supporting the company's ability to reinvest and grow. However, fluctuations in free cash flow growth rate suggest potential volatility in cash management.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue40.65B34.07B31.97B27.77B19.42B
Gross Profit4.74B4.33B3.93B3.28B2.68B
EBITDA1.89B1.74B1.35B1.13B1.15B
Net Income1.18B1.09B792.00M659.00M673.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.63B14.89B12.31B12.21B9.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments8.99B9.11B7.50B7.64B6.03B
Total Debt3.12B2.38B2.39B2.39B2.35B
Total Liabilities11.13B10.68B9.35B9.58B7.44B
Stockholders Equity4.50B4.21B2.96B2.63B2.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow544.00M1.58B682.00M2.04B1.82B
Operating Cash Flow644.00M1.66B773.00M2.12B1.89B
Investing Cash Flow-464.00M-744.00M-790.00M-1.65B-400.00M
Financing Cash Flow-347.00M-58.00M-441.00M-183.00M225.00M

Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price158.22
Price Trends
50DMA
272.69
Negative
100DMA
298.09
Negative
200DMA
300.15
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-30.04
Positive
RSI
19.47
Positive
STOCH
13.28
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 158.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 228.21, below the 50-day MA of 272.69, and below the 200-day MA of 300.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -30.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.47 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.28 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOH.

Molina Healthcare Risk Analysis

Molina Healthcare disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Molina Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Molina Healthcare Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$27.66B16.7710.09%1.54%10.09%-12.18%
72
Outperform
$14.64B4.3812.59%8.85%33.30%
72
Outperform
$78.24B14.777.00%4.53%4.84%-26.54%
68
Neutral
$81.30B16.8612.37%1.98%24.65%48.38%
67
Neutral
$66.79B12.6212.48%2.38%10.21%-17.79%
66
Neutral
CHF27.76B14.929.37%1.98%28.68%7.54%
63
Neutral
$9.79B8.7323.93%16.12%10.99%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MOH
Molina Healthcare
158.22
-165.95
-51.19%
CNC
Centene
26.76
-40.64
-60.30%
CI
Cigna
293.93
-41.22
-12.30%
CVS
CVS Health
58.75
2.67
4.76%
HUM
Humana
229.21
-152.11
-39.89%
ELV
Elevance Health
280.43
-225.61
-44.58%

Molina Healthcare Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Molina Healthcare’s Annual Meeting Highlights Key Decisions
Neutral
May 1, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Molina Healthcare held its Annual Meeting where 85.6% of the company’s outstanding shares were represented. During the meeting, stockholders voted on several proposals, including the election of nine directors, approval of executive compensation, ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor, approval of the 2025 Equity Incentive Plan, and a stockholder proposal regarding special meetings. Key outcomes included the election of directors and the approval of the equity plan, while the executive compensation proposal faced significant opposition.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025