Molina Healthcare (MOH)
NYSE:MOH
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Molina Healthcare
(NYSE:MOH)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$135.00
▼(-8.51% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is primarily held back by weakened 2025 financial quality (sharp margin compression and negative operating/free cash flow) and bearish technical trends. Partially offsetting this are a reasonable valuation (P/E ~17) and earnings-call positives around Medicaid contract wins and embedded earnings, though near-term guidance remains pressured by medical cost and segment headwinds.
Positive Factors
Medicaid scale & contract wins
Large, state-level Medicaid awards and >$9B of new Medicaid premium materially increase recurring, capitated revenue. State contracts provide multi-year cash flow visibility, deepen provider networks and create scale advantages that sustainably lower per-member cost and boost negotiating leverage.
Negative Factors
Weak operating and free cash flow
A reversal to negative OCF and FCF materially reduces self-funding capacity and raises dependence on external financing. If sustained, weaker cash generation limits investment, increases refinancing risk, and heightens scrutiny on capital allocation, constraining durable financial flexibility across planning horizons.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Medicaid scale & contract wins
Large, state-level Medicaid awards and >$9B of new Medicaid premium materially increase recurring, capitated revenue. State contracts provide multi-year cash flow visibility, deepen provider networks and create scale advantages that sustainably lower per-member cost and boost negotiating leverage.
Read all positive factors
Molina Healthcare (MOH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.60B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.7
Beta (1Y)-0.02
Revenue Growth13.71%
EPS Growth-18.02%
CountryUS
Employees18,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.75
Shares Outstanding51,500,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,003,621
30 Day Avg. Volume1,745,136
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)2.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-13.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$143.54Price Target Upside-2.72% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)5.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.72B
Molina Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed health care services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketpla...
How the Company Makes Money
Molina primarily makes money by operating managed health plans and receiving premium revenue to assume medical cost risk for enrolled members. Its largest revenue stream is typically Medicaid managed care: state Medicaid agencies pay Molina a per-...
Molina Healthcare Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Members
Tracks the total number of individuals enrolled in Molina Healthcare plans, indicating market reach and potential revenue base.
Tracks the total number of individuals enrolled in Molina Healthcare plans, indicating market reach and potential revenue base.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMolina Healthcare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced demonstrable long-term growth achievements (large new Medicaid wins, high RFP win rates, a sizable embedded earnings backlog > $11/share, and a strong RFP pipeline) against meaningful near-term financial headwinds (a large EPS miss, California retro adjustments, elevated 2025 medical cost trend, Medicare product issues, and liquidity/operational cash flow pressures). Management provided conservative 2026 guidance (~$42B revenue, EPS at least $5) that factors in known startup and product exit costs while highlighting upside levers (rate restorations, trend moderation, and conservative pricing in Medicare/Marketplace). Given the company’s sizable strategic wins and embedded earnings potential but material short-term earnings and cash challenges, the tone is cautious and balanced.Positive Updates
Full-Year Premium Revenue and YoY Growth
Reported full-year premium revenue of $43.1 billion, representing 11% year-over-year growth; Q4 premium revenue was $10.7 billion.
Negative Updates
Large Full-Year EPS Shortfall and Q4 Loss
Full-year adjusted EPS of $11.03 vs initial guidance of $24.50 (nearly half the underperformance attributed to Marketplace); Q4 adjusted loss per share of $2.75; adjusted earnings were roughly $3.00 below expectations for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Premium Revenue and YoY Growth
Reported full-year premium revenue of $43.1 billion, representing 11% year-over-year growth; Q4 premium revenue was $10.7 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Molina’s 2026 guidance calls for roughly $42 billion of premium revenue with adjusted EPS of at least $5 (about $7.50 underlying after removing a $1.50 Florida CMS start‑up drag and $1.00 MAPD headwind) and a consolidated pretax margin of ~0.8%; the company expects Medicaid premium of $33.4 billion with an MCR of 92.9%, a 1.2% pretax margin, ~4.6 million year‑end members, rates averaging ~4% vs. medical cost trend of 5% (note every 100 bps on the Medicaid MCR is worth ~ $5 per share), Medicare premium of $6.6 billion with an MCR of 94% and a -1.7% pretax margin (excluding MAPD nearer breakeven) and ~230,000 members, and Marketplace premium of $2.2 billion with an MCR of 85.5%, a 1.7% pretax margin, ~280,000 Q1 members falling to ~220,000 year‑end after a ~50% planned premium reduction (~$2.3B); other bridge metrics include an adjusted G&A ratio of ~6.4%, an effective tax rate of 30%, weighted average shares of 51.1 million, embedded earnings now > $11 per share, two‑thirds of earnings skewed to the first half of the year, and the Florida CMS win (~$6 billion run‑rate) incepting late‑2026 (expected to add ~30 bps MCR pressure in its initial quarter).Molina Healthcare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 45.43B | 40.65B | 34.07B | 31.97B | 27.77B |
| Gross Profit | 4.08B | 4.74B | 4.33B | 3.93B | 3.28B |
| EBITDA | 976.00M | 1.89B | 1.74B | 1.35B | 1.13B |
| Net Income | 472.00M | 1.18B | 1.09B | 792.00M | 659.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.56B | 15.63B | 14.89B | 12.31B | 12.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.25B | 8.99B | 9.11B | 7.50B | 7.64B |
| Total Debt | 3.95B | 3.12B | 2.38B | 2.39B | 2.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.49B | 11.13B | 10.68B | 9.35B | 9.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.07B | 4.50B | 4.21B | 2.96B | 2.63B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -636.00M | 544.00M | 1.58B | 682.00M | 2.04B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -535.00M | 644.00M | 1.66B | 773.00M | 2.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 312.00M | -464.00M | -744.00M | -790.00M | -1.65B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -170.00M | -347.00M | -58.00M | -441.00M | -183.00M |
Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis
Neutral
147.55
Price Trends
148.10
Negative
156.48
Negative
172.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.17
Negative
54.64
Neutral
82.20
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 147.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 141.40, below the 50-day MA of 148.10, and below the 200-day MA of 172.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MOH.
Molina Healthcare Risk Analysis
Molina Healthcare disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Molina Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Molina Healthcare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $73.14B | 12.29 | 14.53% | 2.21% | 16.75% | 113.48% | |
64 Neutral | $70.23B | 13.73 | 13.01% | 1.99% | 11.96% | -11.11% | |
53 Neutral | $100.24B | 56.87 | 2.34% | 3.41% | 6.71% | -90.11% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $23.82B | 25.97 | 6.59% | 1.38% | 9.87% | -5.58% | |
50 Neutral | $18.33B | -3.03 | -27.74% | ― | 14.92% | -286.72% | |
49 Neutral | $7.60B | 18.68 | 10.99% | ― | 13.71% | -18.02% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MOH
Molina Healthcare
147.55
-195.13
-56.94%
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Molina Healthcare Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Molina Healthcare Reaffirms 2026 Earnings Guidance to Investors
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Molina Healthcare said its senior management will meet investors and analysts in early March 2026, including at TD Cowen’s 46th Annual Health Care Conference on March 3, 2026, where it plans to reaffirm its 2026 full-year GAAP diluted EPS gu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Molina Healthcare Announces Impairment Charge Amid Medicare Shift
Negative
Feb 6, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Molina Healthcare, Inc. amended its existing credit agreement with its lenders and Truist Bank, temporarily easing its quarterly minimum interest coverage ratio from 3.00x to a stepped schedule ranging from 1.75x through 2.75x...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.