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Molina Healthcare
(NYSE:MOH)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$201.00
▲(1.75% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
The score is primarily weighed down by weakening fundamentals (TTM revenue growth reversal, profit/margin deterioration) and volatile cash generation, plus weak near-term technicals with the stock below key short-term moving averages. Earnings call guidance was constructive (raised 2026 EPS and strong core segment performance), but valuation is a major headwind given the extremely elevated P/E and no dividend yield support.
Positive Factors
Core Medicaid & Medicare duals strength
Consistent outperformance in Medicaid and Medicare duals reflects durable scale in government programs, favorable rate leverage, and improved MCRs. These segments generate predictable, contract-backed premium flows and margin expansion potential as rate updates and medical-cost control compound over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Intermittent negative operating and free cash flow in 2025 highlights working-capital and timing sensitivity inherent in managed care. Volatile cash generation constrains capital allocation, raises refinancing risk during downturns, and reduces resilience to policy or claims shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Core Medicaid & Medicare duals strength
Consistent outperformance in Medicaid and Medicare duals reflects durable scale in government programs, favorable rate leverage, and improved MCRs. These segments generate predictable, contract-backed premium flows and margin expansion potential as rate updates and medical-cost control compound over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Molina Healthcare Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Members
Tracks the total number of individuals enrolled in Molina Healthcare plans, indicating market reach and potential revenue base.
Tracks the total number of individuals enrolled in Molina Healthcare plans, indicating market reach and potential revenue base.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMolina Healthcare (MOH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.21B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)1222.6
Beta (1Y)-0.04
Revenue Growth2.55%
EPS Growth-100.90%
CountryUS
Employees19,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding52,200,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,293,130
30 Day Avg. Volume1,431,127
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)2.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-13.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$215.23Price Target Upside8.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)5.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.51B
Molina Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Molina Healthcare, Inc. offers comprehensive managed health care services, primarily targeting economically disadvantaged families and individuals. The company provides coverage through key government initiatives such as Medicaid and Medicare prog...
How the Company Makes Money
Molina Healthcare makes money primarily by operating managed care health plans and receiving premium revenue—most significantly from government programs—under contracts with state and federal agencies and from members enrolled in ACA Marketplace p...
Molina Healthcare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally constructive tone: core businesses (Medicaid and Medicare duals) performed well and management raised 2026 EPS guidance, highlighted strong cash generation, contract wins, and a clear path to long-term targets. However, material near-term headwinds remain in the Marketplace line (higher-than-expected MCR, adverse acuity mix and prior-year items), a discrete MAPD loss, and the one-time Florida CMS implementation drag. Management frames these negatives as largely nonrecurring and manageable, emphasizing scale, rate leverage, embedded earnings and MCR improvements as the route to 2027-2029 targets.Positive Updates
Reported Q2 Financials
Adjusted EPS of $1.51 on $10.2B of premium revenue; consolidated MCR of 92.2% in the quarter; adjusted pretax margin of 1.0% for the quarter and 1.3% year-to-date.
Negative Updates
Marketplace Segment Weakness
Marketplace Q2 MCR of 88.9% (higher than expectations); normalized MCR excluding prior year items 87.3%; full-year Marketplace MCR guidance raised to 90% and Marketplace now expected to lose $0.75 per share in 2026 — a $1.50 per share negative revision from prior guidance (from +$0.75 to -$0.75).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reported Q2 Financials
Adjusted EPS of $1.51 on $10.2B of premium revenue; consolidated MCR of 92.2% in the quarter; adjusted pretax margin of 1.0% for the quarter and 1.3% year-to-date.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Molina reaffirmed full‑year 2026 premium revenue of ~ $42.0B and raised adjusted EPS guidance by $0.25 to at least $5.25 (after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.51 on $10.2B of premium), with a Q2 consolidated MCR of 92.2% and full‑year consolidated MCR guidance of ~92.6%; segment guidance includes Medicaid Q2 MCR 92.7% and full‑year MCR 92.9% (4% rate updates, 5% medical cost trend) with Medicaid expected to produce ~1.2% pretax margin (~$5.75/share) (excluding the Florida CMS contract projected at 1.6% and $7.25/share), Medicare Q2 MCR 90.7% and full‑year MCR guidance 92.2% (duals ≈92% MCR) with Medicare contributing $0.25/share and duals $1.25/share (1.4% pretax) while MAPD is expected to lose $1/share, and Marketplace Q2 MCR 88.9% (normalized 87.3%) with full‑year MCR guidance raised to 90% and a $0.75/share loss (a $1.50/share downward revision) as the company plans to reduce Marketplace exposure by ~ $1B in 2027; looking ahead Molina’s 2027 premium outlook is ~ $46.5B (≈11% YoY), 2029 premium and EPS targets are $64B and $25, embedded earnings remain $9/share (~half expected to emerge in 2027), pro forma 2026 “earnings power” excluding Florida CMS and MAPD is ~$7.75/share, and key capital/operating metrics include parent cash $290M (projected ~$600M YE), H1 operating cash flow $788M, subsidiary dividends harvested ~$110M, debt‑to‑cap ~47% (projected 44% YE), year‑end membership ~5.0M, Q2 adjusted G&A 6.5% with full‑year G&A guidance 6.4%; management also noted sensitivity drivers (every 100 bps MCR ≈ $5/share for Medicaid and ≈ $0.75/share for Medicare duals) and a $1.50 2026 headwind related to the Florida CMS contract (roughly $0.50 Q3 G&A, $0.50 one‑time reserve in Q4, $0.50 initial MLR impact).Molina Healthcare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 44.52B | 45.43B | 40.65B | 34.07B | 31.97B | 27.77B |
| Gross Profit | 15.39B | 5.94B | 4.74B | 4.33B | 3.93B | 3.28B |
| EBITDA | 371.00M | 976.00M | 1.89B | 1.74B | 1.35B | 1.13B |
| Net Income | -7.00M | 472.00M | 1.18B | 1.09B | 792.00M | 659.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.00B | 15.56B | 15.63B | 14.89B | 12.31B | 12.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.91B | 8.26B | 8.99B | 9.11B | 7.50B | 7.64B |
| Total Debt | 3.95B | 3.95B | 3.12B | 2.38B | 2.39B | 2.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.83B | 11.49B | 11.13B | 10.68B | 9.35B | 9.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.17B | 4.07B | 4.50B | 4.21B | 2.96B | 2.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 271.00M | -636.00M | 544.00M | 1.58B | 682.00M | 2.04B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 365.00M | -535.00M | 644.00M | 1.66B | 773.00M | 2.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 288.00M | 312.00M | -464.00M | -744.00M | -790.00M | -1.65B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -152.00M | -170.00M | -347.00M | -58.00M | -441.00M | -183.00M |
Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis
Negative
197.55
Price Trends
206.45
Negative
183.51
Positive
172.67
Positive
Market Momentum
1.66
Positive
35.40
Neutral
11.99
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 197.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 219.50, below the 50-day MA of 206.45, and above the 200-day MA of 172.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.99 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOH.
Molina Healthcare Risk Analysis
Molina Healthcare disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Molina Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Molina Healthcare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $73.74B | 11.51 | 15.24% | 2.12% | 8.15% | 31.47% | |
70 Outperform | $376.34B | 26.65 | 14.40% | 2.13% | 6.46% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $81.51B | 16.70 | 11.24% | 1.82% | 6.27% | -4.37% | |
63 Neutral | $43.69B | 34.15 | 6.91% | 0.91% | 18.33% | -18.53% | |
60 Neutral | $30.74B | -5.98 | -24.03% | ― | 13.89% | -356.11% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $10.21B | 1,222.62 | -0.17% | ― | 2.55% | -100.90% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MOH
Molina Healthcare
195.62
37.47
23.69%
CNC
Centene
62.22
36.01
137.39%
CI
Cigna
279.05
18.24
6.99%
HUM
Humana
363.86
120.03
49.23%
UNH
UnitedHealth
414.40
179.71
76.57%
ELV
Elevance Health
375.84
106.57
39.58%
Molina Healthcare Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Molina Healthcare Wins Major Illinois Medicaid Managed Care Contract
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
On June 10, 2026, Molina Healthcare announced that the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services intends to award a HealthChoice Illinois Medicaid Managed Care contract to its subsidiary, Molina Healthcare of Illinois. Molina will be o...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Molina Healthcare Shareholders Approve Governance and Bylaw Changes
Positive
May 11, 2026
At its May 6, 2026 annual meeting, Molina Healthcare shareholders approved an amendment to the company’s certificate of incorporation allowing stockholders holding at least 20% of voting power, and meeting one-year ownership and disclosure r...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Molina Healthcare Unveils Long-Term Strategy at Investor Day
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 8, 2026, Molina Healthcare hosted its Investor Day Conference, where management outlined long-term financial targets and detailed strategic and operational plans, including growth expectations and cost trends across its Medicaid, Medicare, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.