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Molina Healthcare
(NYSE:MOH)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$241.00
▲(61.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/11/26
The score is held back most by pressured fundamentals (margin compression, weaker recent revenue/earnings momentum, and cash-flow volatility) and a high P/E valuation. Offsetting these are strong technical momentum and a balanced earnings outlook with reaffirmed 2026 guidance, solid Q1 performance/cash flow, and supportive recent contract-related corporate developments.
Positive Factors
Government-focused managed care model
Molina’s core business of capitated Medicaid, Medicare Advantage and Marketplace plans creates durable, contract-driven premium streams tied to state and federal funding. Capitation and long-term plan contracts provide predictable revenue, scale in provider networks, and resilience versus purely commercial cycles.
Negative Factors
Thin Medicaid margins (high MCR)
Medicaid operating margins are narrow, with MCR guidance near 93% leaving limited cushion for adverse medical cost trends or slower rate updates. Small unfavorable shifts in utilization, pharmacy costs, or state payment timing can quickly erode profitability in Molina’s largest segment over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Government-focused managed care model
Molina’s core business of capitated Medicaid, Medicare Advantage and Marketplace plans creates durable, contract-driven premium streams tied to state and federal funding. Capitation and long-term plan contracts provide predictable revenue, scale in provider networks, and resilience versus purely commercial cycles.
Read all positive factors
Molina Healthcare Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Members
Tracks the total number of individuals enrolled in Molina Healthcare plans, indicating market reach and potential revenue base.
Tracks the total number of individuals enrolled in Molina Healthcare plans, indicating market reach and potential revenue base.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMolina Healthcare (MOH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.98B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)946.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)67.8
Beta (1Y)-0.11
Revenue Growth7.72%
EPS Growth-83.64%
CountryUS
Employees18,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.35
Shares Outstanding52,100,000
10 Day Avg. Volume977,810
30 Day Avg. Volume946,208
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)2.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-13.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$184.81Price Target Upside24.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)5.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.34B
Molina Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Molina Healthcare, Inc. offers comprehensive managed health care services, primarily targeting economically disadvantaged families and individuals. The company provides coverage through key government initiatives such as Medicaid and Medicare prog...
How the Company Makes Money
Molina Healthcare makes money primarily by operating managed care health plans and receiving premium revenue—most significantly from government programs—under contracts with state and federal agencies and from members enrolled in ACA Marketplace p...
Molina Healthcare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but ultimately balanced picture: solid first-quarter operating and financial results (EPS beat, disciplined medical cost performance, strong cash flow, progress on Medicare duals, and a major new contract) were offset by meaningful near-term challenges (higher Medicaid membership attrition, thin Medicaid margins, MAPD drag and exit, elevated leverage, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty). Management is cautiously optimistic — reaffirming full-year guidance while seeking additional confirmation in Q2 before raising targets and emphasizing prudent execution on new large implementations.Positive Updates
Strong First Quarter Financials
Reported adjusted EPS of $2.35 and $10.2 billion of premium revenue for Q1 2026; consolidated medical cost ratio (MCR) of 91.1% and adjusted pretax margin of 1.6% for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Higher-Than-Expected Medicaid Membership Attrition
Same-store Medicaid membership attrition guidance increased from a 2% decline to a 6% decline for 2026 (now expecting ~4.5 million Medicaid members year-end); management expects revenue loss to be offset by higher Marketplace revenue but membership headcount risk remains significant.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong First Quarter Financials
Reported adjusted EPS of $2.35 and $10.2 billion of premium revenue for Q1 2026; consolidated medical cost ratio (MCR) of 91.1% and adjusted pretax margin of 1.6% for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Molina reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance of approximately $42.0 billion of premium revenue and at least $5.00 of adjusted EPS after reporting Q1 results of $10.2 billion of premium revenue, $2.35 adjusted EPS and a consolidated MCR of 91.1% (Q1 Medicaid MCR 92.0%, Medicare MCR 89.8%, Marketplace MCR 84.0; Marketplace adjusted for prior‑year items ~79.5%). For 2026 the company expects Medicaid same‑store membership to decline ~6% to roughly 4.5 million, full‑year Medicaid MCR of 92.9% (assumes 4% rate increases and a 5% medical cost trend), Medicare MCR ~94% (current duals run‑rate ~$5.5B at ~94% MLR; MAPD ~ $1.2B of revenue producing ~$1.00 loss that will be exited), Marketplace full‑year MCR 85.5% with year‑end membership ~250,000 (Q1 305,000; 70% renewals), and a full‑year G&A ratio of ~6.4%. Management reiterated a 5% medical cost trend assumption for 2026 (vs. 7.5% in 2025 that included ~250 bps of acuity shift), noted possible off‑cycle/retro state rate updates as upside, highlighted embedded earnings of ~$2.50 per share (MAPD losses + Florida CMS implementation) and a Florida CMS run‑rate of ~ $6B, and cited Q1 balance‑sheet metrics including ~$35M of subsidiary dividends harvested, parent cash ~$213M (forecasted to exceed $600M by year‑end), Q1 operating cash flow ~$1.1B, debt ~6.1x TTM EBITDA, debt‑to‑cap ~48%, and days in claims payable of 44.Molina Healthcare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 45.08B | 45.43B | 40.65B | 34.07B | 31.97B | 27.77B |
| Gross Profit | 3.82B | 4.08B | 4.74B | 4.33B | 3.93B | 3.28B |
| EBITDA | 617.00M | 976.00M | 1.89B | 1.74B | 1.35B | 1.13B |
| Net Income | 188.00M | 472.00M | 1.18B | 1.09B | 792.00M | 659.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.39B | 15.56B | 15.63B | 14.89B | 12.31B | 12.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.25B | 8.26B | 8.99B | 9.11B | 7.50B | 7.64B |
| Total Debt | 3.95B | 3.95B | 3.12B | 2.38B | 2.39B | 2.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.31B | 11.49B | 11.13B | 10.68B | 9.35B | 9.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.08B | 4.07B | 4.50B | 4.21B | 2.96B | 2.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 251.00M | -636.00M | 544.00M | 1.58B | 682.00M | 2.04B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 357.00M | -535.00M | 644.00M | 1.66B | 773.00M | 2.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 446.00M | 312.00M | -464.00M | -744.00M | -790.00M | -1.65B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -337.00M | -170.00M | -347.00M | -58.00M | -441.00M | -183.00M |
Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis
Positive
148.97
Price Trends
191.57
Positive
167.14
Positive
169.51
Positive
Market Momentum
11.38
Negative
76.30
Negative
96.00
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 148.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 204.31, below the 50-day MA of 191.57, and below the 200-day MA of 169.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.30 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MOH.
Molina Healthcare Risk Analysis
Molina Healthcare disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Molina Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Molina Healthcare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $76.12B | 12.13 | 15.16% | 2.21% | 9.30% | 30.22% | |
75 Outperform | $90.75B | 17.77 | 11.95% | 1.99% | 9.44% | -8.53% | |
69 Neutral | $133.62B | 45.33 | 3.87% | 3.41% | 7.68% | -45.09% | |
63 Neutral | $47.63B | 42.30 | 6.19% | 1.38% | 14.08% | -33.82% | |
57 Neutral | $11.98B | 67.81 | 4.44% | ― | 7.72% | -83.64% | |
57 Neutral | $33.51B | -5.17 | -28.72% | ― | 17.02% | -294.77% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MOH
Molina Healthcare
229.87
-9.71
-4.05%
CNC
Centene
67.86
34.55
103.72%
CI
Cigna
287.77
-25.05
-8.01%
CVS
CVS Health
104.72
39.67
60.98%
HUM
Humana
396.75
160.48
67.92%
ELV
Elevance Health
417.89
77.21
22.66%
Molina Healthcare Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Molina Healthcare Wins Major Illinois Medicaid Managed Care Contract
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
On June 10, 2026, Molina Healthcare announced that the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services intends to award a HealthChoice Illinois Medicaid Managed Care contract to its subsidiary, Molina Healthcare of Illinois. Molina will be o...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Molina Healthcare Shareholders Approve Governance and Bylaw Changes
Positive
May 11, 2026
At its May 6, 2026 annual meeting, Molina Healthcare shareholders approved an amendment to the company’s certificate of incorporation allowing stockholders holding at least 20% of voting power, and meeting one-year ownership and disclosure r...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Molina Healthcare Unveils Long-Term Strategy at Investor Day
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 8, 2026, Molina Healthcare hosted its Investor Day Conference, where management outlined long-term financial targets and detailed strategic and operational plans, including growth expectations and cost trends across its Medicaid, Medicare, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.