Molina Healthcare (MOH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.80B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.9
• Beta (1Y): -0.05
• Revenue Growth: 16.12%
• EPS Growth: 10.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): 5.48
• Shares Outstanding: 54,200,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,575,496
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,990,394
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.55
• 1Y Price Target: $218.73
• Price Target Upside: 19.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $192.00 ▲(4.77% Upside)

Molina Healthcare's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by technical indicators suggesting potential short-term weakness and challenges highlighted in the earnings call. The company's ability to manage costs and maintain growth targets amidst rising medical costs will be crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Medicaid Rate Advocacy

MOH has strong rate advocacy efforts with state partners to restore Medicaid rates to appropriate levels, potentially improving future financial outcomes.

Medicaid Rate Setting

Management expressed confidence in more appropriate rate setting among the Medicaid cohort, which renews a significant portion of its premium.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

MOH lowered FY25 EPS guidance an additional -14% following a previous revision, indicating increased financial pressure.

Medical Cost Pressures

The company is facing accelerating medical cost pressures across all business lines, impacting financial performance.

Utilization Pressures

Estimates are lowered to reflect MOH's outlook of elevated utilization across all lines of business, especially in HIX.

Molina Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Molina Healthcare, Inc. is a leading provider of managed health care services, focusing primarily on Medicaid and Medicare programs in the United States. The company operates through various segments, including Health Plans, which offer health insurance coverage to low-income individuals and families, and the Molina Marketplace, which provides affordable health insurance options under the Affordable Care Act. With a commitment to improving the health outcomes of its members, Molina Healthcare aims to deliver quality care and services tailored to the unique needs of the communities it serves.

How the Company Makes Money

Molina Healthcare generates revenue primarily through its Health Plans segment, which receives funding from state and federal government programs. The company contracts with state Medicaid programs to provide managed care services, receiving capitation payments based on the number of enrolled members. Additionally, Molina participates in Medicare Advantage programs, earning premium payments for providing healthcare services to Medicare beneficiaries. Key revenue streams include premiums from Medicaid and Medicare plans, as well as supplemental revenue from additional services such as pharmacy benefits. The company also engages in partnerships with healthcare providers and community organizations to enhance care delivery, which can lead to improved member enrollment and retention, further contributing to its earnings.

Molina Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Molina Healthcare shows robust financial performance with strong revenue growth and profitability metrics. The balance sheet is solid with manageable leverage and strong return on equity. However, liquidity management needs attention, and there is room for improvement in operating cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Molina Healthcare demonstrates strong revenue growth, with a 7% increase from the previous year in the TTM period. The company maintains solid profitability metrics, including a gross profit margin of 5.3% and a net profit margin of 2.6% for the TTM. While EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust at 3.8% and 4.3% respectively, there is a slight decline in EBIT compared to the previous year, suggesting potential cost management areas to address.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy equity position with an equity ratio of 28.4% in the TTM period, indicating a solid financial footing. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.77, suggesting manageable leverage levels. Return on equity is strong at 24.5%, indicating efficient use of equity capital. However, the decrease in cash and equivalents compared to previous periods highlights a potential liquidity area to monitor.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a decline in operating cash flow compared to the previous year, impacting the operating cash flow to net income ratio, which stands at 0.47 in the TTM. Free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.38, though free cash flow has decreased year-over-year. The company needs to focus on enhancing operating cash flow to maintain financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	43.41B	40.65B	34.07B	31.97B	27.77B	19.42B
Gross Profit	4.75B	4.74B	4.33B	3.93B	3.28B	2.68B
EBITDA	1.85B	1.89B	1.74B	1.35B	1.13B	1.15B
Net Income	1.13B	1.18B	1.09B	792.00M	659.00M	673.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.21B	15.63B	14.89B	12.31B	12.21B	9.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.81B	8.99B	9.11B	7.50B	7.64B	6.03B
Total Debt	3.56B	3.12B	2.38B	2.39B	2.39B	2.35B
Total Liabilities	11.61B	11.13B	10.68B	9.35B	9.58B	7.44B
Stockholders Equity	4.60B	4.50B	4.21B	2.96B	2.63B	2.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	427.00M	544.00M	1.58B	682.00M	2.04B	1.82B
Operating Cash Flow	537.00M	644.00M	1.66B	773.00M	2.12B	1.89B
Investing Cash Flow	-24.00M	-464.00M	-744.00M	-790.00M	-1.65B	-400.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-339.00M	-347.00M	-58.00M	-441.00M	-183.00M	217.00M

Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 183.25
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 183.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 167.38, below the 50-day MA of 198.26, and below the 200-day MA of 279.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.59 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOH.

Molina Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVS	77 Outperform	$92.78B	20.41	5.95%	3.59%	6.27%	-36.28%
ELV	73 Outperform	$71.75B	13.56	12.48%	2.07%	10.21%	-17.79%
CI	72 Outperform	$80.31B	16.43	12.31%	1.94%	20.93%	43.98%
HUM	71 Outperform	$36.52B	23.31	9.03%	1.14%	9.88%	-7.25%
MOH	70 Outperform	$9.80B	8.92	23.93%	―	16.12%	10.99%
CNC	63 Neutral	$14.26B	7.18	7.50%	―	12.96%	-23.25%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.33	-41.39%	2.23%	23.26%	-2.03%

Molina Healthcare Corporate Events

Molina Healthcare Amends Credit Agreement for $500M Loan

On August 12, 2025, Molina Healthcare amended its Credit Agreement to include a $500 million Delayed Draw A-2 Commitment, maturing on August 12, 2027. The company plans to use this loan to partially fund its stock repurchase program, addressing timing issues with subsidiary dividends, which may impact its financial strategy and shareholder value.