Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH)
NYSE:UNH
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UnitedHealth
(NYSE:UNH)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$304.00
▲(10.96% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/10/26
UNH scores as moderately attractive: strong scale and cash flow support the fundamentals, and management guided to EPS growth with planned efficiency and margin actions. The score is held back by clear profitability compression, meaningful 2026 membership declines and cost-trend headwinds, plus currently bearish technicals.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
UnitedHealth's very strong 2025 cash generation (sharp OCF rebound and large FCF) provides durable financial flexibility. High cash conversion supports reinvestment in Optum, funding for AI/tech, and the ability to reduce leverage or resume capital returns without relying on volatile earnings.
Negative Factors
Large 2026 membership contraction
A multi-million member decline materially reduces premium volume and dilutes fixed-cost absorption. This structural membership falloff weakens underwriting scale, can raise unit medical costs, and forces product repricing or footprint changes that may take multiple quarters to restore margins and revenue synergies.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
UnitedHealth's very strong 2025 cash generation (sharp OCF rebound and large FCF) provides durable financial flexibility. High cash conversion supports reinvestment in Optum, funding for AI/tech, and the ability to reduce leverage or resume capital returns without relying on volatile earnings.
Read all positive factors
UnitedHealth (UNH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$255.38B
Dividend Yield2.69%
Average Volume (3M)8.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.9
Beta (1Y)0.21
Revenue Growth10.48%
EPS Growth24.25%
CountryUS
Employees400,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.11
Shares Outstanding907,675,840
10 Day Avg. Volume10,903,099
30 Day Avg. Volume8,620,142
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.62
Price to Book (P/B)3.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio18.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$365.95Price Target Upside33.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering23
EPS Forecast (FY)17.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$441.43B
UnitedHealth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a diversified health care company in the United States. It operates through four segments: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-orient...
How the Company Makes Money
UnitedHealth Group generates revenue primarily through its health insurance offerings and health services. The UnitedHealthcare segment earns revenue from premiums paid by individuals and employers for health plans, as well as from government prog...
UnitedHealth Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Categorizes income by source, such as premiums, services, or products, revealing diversification and potential vulnerabilities in revenue streams.
Categorizes income by source, such as premiums, services, or products, revealing diversification and potential vulnerabilities in revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnitedHealth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Mixed. The company reported solid 2025 revenue growth (+12%) and adjusted EPS slightly ahead of expectations, provided positive 2026 adjusted EPS guidance (> $17.75, ≥8.6% growth), and outlined multiple operational improvements (Optum wins, AI-driven cost reductions, technology investment, OptumHealth restructuring progress). However, material near-term headwinds remain: large anticipated membership contractions across Medicare, Medicaid and exchange markets; significant restructuring and reserve charges tied to Optum actions; persistent elevated medical cost trends (Medicare trend ~10% in 2026); and funding shortfalls from Medicare and Medicaid that may force further benefit and footprint adjustments. Management projects margin recovery but expects some delay until 2027, making the tone cautiously constructive but balanced between clear positives and notable risks.Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS and 2026 Guidance
Reported adjusted EPS of $16.35 for full year 2025 (slightly ahead of expectations). 2026 initial outlook: adjusted EPS greater than $17.75, implying at least 8.6% growth year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Large Membership Contraction in 2026
Company expects significant membership declines in 2026: UnitedHealthcare membership contraction of 2.3 million to 2.8 million overall; Medicare Advantage contraction of ~1.3 million to 1.4 million; Medicaid membership contraction of ~565,000 to 715,000. Exchange business decline >500,000.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EPS and 2026 Guidance
Reported adjusted EPS of $16.35 for full year 2025 (slightly ahead of expectations). 2026 initial outlook: adjusted EPS greater than $17.75, implying at least 8.6% growth year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
UnitedHealth guided to 2026 adjusted EPS of greater than $17.75 (at least +8.6% vs FY‑2025 adjusted EPS of $16.35) and GAAP net earnings of at least $17.10 per share, with revenues around $440 billion (FY‑2025 revenues were nearly $448B, +12% YoY) and at least $18B of cash from operations in 2026 (~1.1x net income vs $19.7B or ~1.5x in 2025); they expect roughly two‑thirds of 2026 earnings in H1, a medical care ratio of ~88.8% ±50 bps (FY‑2025 MCR 89.1%), an operating cost ratio of ~12.8% ±50 bps (FY‑2025 13.3%), and progress toward a long‑term debt‑to‑capital target of ~40% by year‑end with capital returns resuming in H2. Segment and operating guidance includes ~13% adjusted operating earnings growth at UnitedHealthcare with ~40 bps operating margin expansion and total UHC membership contraction of 2.3–2.8 million (Medicare Advantage down ~1.3–1.4M; Medicaid down ~565–715k) and ~50 bps Medicare margin improvement; Optum segments are expected to deliver low‑ to high‑single‑digit adjusted growth overall, with OptumRx margin expansion ~20 bps (implementation of >800 new customers, >95% of customers electing full rebate pass‑through in 2026), OptumInsight >4% growth and ~90 bps margin expansion (including alignment of Optum Financial), and OptumHealth ~9% operating earnings growth with ~30 bps margin expansion (long‑run target 6–8%), supported by actions such as narrowing affiliated networks ~20%, streamlining risk membership ~15%, nearly 100% of employee provider groups on one of three EMRs (vs 18 previously), AI‑enabled operating cost reductions of nearly $1B in 2026, planned tech/AI investment of ~$1.5B in 2026, and >80% of member calls leveraging AI; FY‑2025 results excluded a $1.6B net‑of‑tax charge ($1.78/sh) tied to Optum actions, including ~ $800M cyber‑related true‑up, a ~$440M portfolio optimization net gain, and ~$2.5B of restructuring/related charges (including ~ $625M lost contract reserve).UnitedHealth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 447.57B | 400.28B | 371.62B | 324.16B | 287.60B |
| Gross Profit | 82.92B | 89.40B | 90.96B | 79.62B | 69.65B |
| EBITDA | 23.06B | 28.08B | 36.33B | 31.84B | 27.07B |
| Net Income | 12.06B | 14.40B | 22.38B | 20.12B | 17.29B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 309.58B | 298.28B | 273.72B | 245.71B | 212.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.12B | 29.11B | 29.63B | 27.91B | 23.91B |
| Total Debt | 78.39B | 76.90B | 67.44B | 57.62B | 46.00B |
| Total Liabilities | 207.88B | 195.69B | 174.80B | 159.36B | 135.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 94.11B | 92.66B | 88.76B | 77.77B | 71.76B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.07B | 20.70B | 25.68B | 23.40B | 19.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.70B | 24.20B | 29.07B | 26.21B | 22.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.69B | -20.53B | -15.57B | -28.48B | -10.37B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.64B | -3.51B | -11.53B | 4.23B | -7.46B |
UnitedHealth Technical Analysis
Neutral
273.98
Price Trends
283.04
Negative
305.54
Negative
308.43
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.88
Negative
52.57
Neutral
81.74
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 273.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 276.49, below the 50-day MA of 283.04, and below the 200-day MA of 308.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UNH.
UnitedHealth Risk Analysis
UnitedHealth disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UnitedHealth reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UnitedHealth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $66.79B | 13.73 | 13.01% | 1.99% | 11.96% | -11.11% | |
63 Neutral | $255.38B | 24.92 | 12.70% | 2.69% | 10.48% | 24.25% | |
53 Neutral | $93.23B | 56.87 | 2.34% | 3.41% | 6.71% | -90.11% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $17.41B | -3.03 | -27.74% | ― | 14.92% | -286.72% | |
49 Neutral | $7.38B | 18.68 | 10.99% | ― | 13.71% | -18.02% | |
47 Neutral | $21.93B | -9.68 | 6.59% | 1.38% | 9.87% | -5.58% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
UNH
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UnitedHealth Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
UnitedHealth to Present at Barclays Global Healthcare Conference
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
UnitedHealth Group said senior leaders will participate in an interview-style session at the Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on March 10, 2026, at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The discussion will cover the company’s strategy, m...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
UnitedHealth Realigns Finance Leadership, Appoints New Accounting Chief
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
UnitedHealth Group said its board appointed Dennis Stankiewicz, 48, as Chief Accounting Officer effective March 2, 2026, while he continues in his role as Corporate Controller, which he has held since April 17, 2023. Stankiewicz, who joined the co...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UnitedHealth Tightens Executive Stock Option Holding Requirements
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 23, 2026, UnitedHealth Group’s Compensation and Human Resources Committee amended a stock option granted to executive Stephen Hemsley on May 14, 2025. The change imposes a two-year share holding requirement after the existing thr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
UnitedHealth Reaffirms 2025 EPS Outlook to Investors
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, UnitedHealth Group’s senior management planned to meet with investors to discuss the company’s outlook and operations. During these meetings, management intended to reaffirm the company’s previously disclosed...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.