UnitedHealth (UNH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $303.42B
• Dividend Yield: 2.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.84M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.14
• Revenue Growth: 10.48%
• EPS Growth: 24.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 400,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): 2.92
• Shares Outstanding: 905,838,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,794,940
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,839,754
• PEG Ratio: -0.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.17
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.01
• 1Y Price Target: $397.82
• Price Target Upside: 18.77% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): 17.74
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $454.25B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $388.00 ▲(15.83% Upside)

UNH scores well on underlying financial strength (profitability and ROE with manageable leverage) and supportive technical trend (price above major moving averages, positive MACD). The overall score is held back primarily by cash-flow softness (FCF growth decline) and earnings-call risks tied to elevated medical cost trends, Medicare Advantage membership contraction, and near-term margin pressure in Optum/Medicaid/ACA, partially offset by a clear margin-recovery plan and reasonable valuation with a solid dividend.

Positive Factors

Diversified business model (UnitedHealthcare + Optum)

UnitedHealth's two-segment structure (UnitedHealthcare insurance and Optum health services/PBM/analytics) creates enduring revenue diversification and cross-selling opportunities. Scale across payor, provider and pharmacy services supports sticky contracts and long-term resilience versus single-focus peers.

High profitability and efficient capital use

ROE near 33% signals strong returns on shareholder capital and effective underwriting/operations. Combined with moderate leverage (debt/equity ~0.79), the balance sheet supports investment, M&A and capital returns while retaining capacity to weather cyclical insurance claim variability.

Scale and recent membership-driven revenue growth

Material top-line scale and membership growth reinforce network leverage, purchasing power in pharmacy and bargaining with providers. Persistent enrollment expansion underpins predictable premium flows, improving negotiating position and long-term margin sustainability across core businesses.

Negative Factors

Declining free cash flow growth

A sharp drop in FCF growth reduces financial flexibility for acquisitions, share buybacks and unexpected liabilities. Even with operating cash strong versus net income, sustained FCF erosion limits capacity to fund strategic investments or absorb regulatory/legal costs without raising leverage or cutting other capital uses.

Regulatory and legal investigations risk

Active Senate and DOJ probes into diagnosis/coding practices create persistent legal, compliance and reputational risks. Potential fines, remediation, and tighter contracting with government payors could materially raise costs, constrain revenue recognition practices, and weaken bargaining power long-term.

Sustained medical-cost and membership headwinds

Elevated medical-cost trends and expected MA membership losses, plus underfunded Medicaid, exert structural margin pressure across insurance and care services. These trends reduce profitability visibility, compel higher premium pricing or network cuts, and slow Optum Health margin recovery over multiple years.

UnitedHealth Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a diversified health care company in the United States. It operates through four segments: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; health care coverage and well-being services to individuals age 50 and older addressing their needs for preventive and acute health care services, as well as services dealing with chronic disease and other specialized issues for older individuals; Medicaid plans, children's health insurance and health care programs; health and dental benefits; and hospital and clinical services. The OptumHealth segment provides access to networks of care provider specialists, health management services, care delivery, consumer engagement, and financial services. This segment serves individuals directly through care delivery systems, employers, payers, and government entities. The OptumInsight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, governments, life sciences companies, and other organizations. The OptumRx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and compounding pharmacy, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease/drug therapy management. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

UnitedHealth Group generates revenue primarily through its health insurance offerings and health services. The UnitedHealthcare segment earns revenue from premiums paid by individuals and employers for health plans, as well as from government programs like Medicare and Medicaid. Optum contributes significantly to the company's revenue through its pharmacy care services, where it manages prescription drug benefits and retail pharmacy operations, and through its health services that focus on data analytics and care management. Key revenue streams include premium revenues, service fees, and the management of pharmacy benefit plans. Additionally, strategic partnerships with employers, healthcare providers, and government agencies enhance its service offerings and revenue potential, while investments in technology and analytics help drive efficiencies and improve care outcomes.

UnitedHealth Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and stable EBIT/EBITDA margins support results, and ROE is robust (33.20%) with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.79). The main offset is weaker cash-flow momentum, with free cash flow growth down (-31.26% TTM), despite solid cash generation versus earnings (operating cash flow to net income 1.19).

Income Statement

UnitedHealth's income statement shows strong revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 2.92%. The company maintains solid profitability with a gross profit margin of 19.70% and a net profit margin of 4.04%. Although there is a slight decline in gross profit margin compared to previous years, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain stable, indicating efficient cost management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity is robust at 33.20%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 32.23%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, the increasing debt levels could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth at -31.26% TTM, which is a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.19 indicates strong cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.83 suggests that the company is still generating significant cash relative to its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	435.16B	400.28B	371.62B	324.16B	287.60B	257.14B
Gross Profit	85.73B	89.40B	90.96B	79.62B	69.65B	67.00B
EBITDA	30.52B	28.08B	36.33B	31.84B	27.07B	25.30B
Net Income	17.59B	14.40B	22.38B	20.12B	17.29B	15.40B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	315.27B	298.28B	273.72B	245.71B	212.21B	197.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	30.61B	29.11B	29.63B	27.91B	23.91B	19.78B
Total Debt	80.14B	76.90B	67.44B	57.62B	46.00B	43.47B
Total Liabilities	209.46B	195.69B	174.80B	159.36B	135.73B	126.75B
Stockholders Equity	95.79B	92.66B	88.76B	77.77B	71.76B	65.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.37B	20.70B	25.68B	23.40B	19.89B	20.12B
Operating Cash Flow	20.96B	24.20B	29.07B	26.21B	22.34B	22.17B
Investing Cash Flow	-7.19B	-20.53B	-15.57B	-28.48B	-10.37B	-12.53B
Financing Cash Flow	-18.95B	-3.51B	-11.53B	4.23B	-7.46B	-3.59B

UnitedHealth Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 334.96
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 334.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 334.80, above the 50-day MA of 329.07, and below the 200-day MA of 336.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UNH.

UnitedHealth Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELV	76 Outperform	$82.86B	15.25	12.61%	1.99%	11.96%	-11.11%
UNH	74 Outperform	$303.42B	17.48	18.48%	2.69%	10.48%	24.25%
MOH	71 Outperform	$9.71B	12.01	19.71%	―	13.71%	-18.02%
HUM	69 Neutral	$32.97B	25.69	7.15%	1.38%	9.87%	-5.58%
CVS	64 Neutral	$100.70B	207.29	0.63%	3.41%	6.71%	-90.11%
CNC	58 Neutral	$22.69B	-4.37	-21.93%	―	14.92%	-286.72%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

UnitedHealth Corporate Events

UnitedHealth Reaffirms 2025 EPS Outlook to Investors

On January 12, 2026, UnitedHealth Group’s senior management planned to meet with investors to discuss the company’s outlook and operations. During these meetings, management intended to reaffirm the company’s previously disclosed adjusted 2025 earnings per share expectations, while cautioning that full-year 2025 financial closing procedures were still in progress and that final results could differ from the indicated ranges once reviews and final adjustments are completed.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNH) stock is a Buy with a $400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UnitedHealth stock, see the UNH Stock Forecast page.

UnitedHealth Appoints Scott Gottlieb as Independent Director

On November 18, 2025, UnitedHealth Group announced the appointment of Scott Gottlieb, M.D. as an independent director. Dr. Gottlieb, known for his tenure as FDA commissioner from 2017 to 2019, is recognized for his efforts in promoting transparency, patient safety, and medical innovation. His appointment is expected to bring valuable insights to UnitedHealth, given his extensive experience in healthcare policy and regulation.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNH) stock is a Hold with a $335.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UnitedHealth stock, see the UNH Stock Forecast page.

UnitedHealth Updates Bylaws for Delaware Compliance

On November 6, 2025, UnitedHealth Group’s Board of Directors approved an amendment to the company’s bylaws to update its registered office and agent in Delaware. This administrative change is expected to streamline the company’s operations and ensure compliance with state regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNH) stock is a Buy with a $400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UnitedHealth stock, see the UNH Stock Forecast page.

UnitedHealth to Participate in UBS Healthcare Conference

UnitedHealth Group announced that its senior leaders will participate in the UBS Global Healthcare Conference 2025 on November 10, 2025. They will discuss the company’s strategy, market positions, recent results, and expectations for its end markets, which could impact its operations and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNH) stock is a Buy with a $386.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UnitedHealth stock, see the UNH Stock Forecast page.