Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.27B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: 47.39%
• EPS Growth: 85.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,679
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 200,091,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,292,147
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,647,695
• PEG Ratio: 1.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.79
• P/FCF Ratio: -322.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 135.91
• 1Y Price Target: $25.00
• Price Target Upside: 17.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.50 ▲(5.49% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (especially the swing to strong free cash flow) and a very upbeat earnings call with raised EBITDA guidance. Offsetting this are balance-sheet leverage risk and weak valuation signals from ongoing net losses; technicals are supportive but not strongly bullish near-term.

Positive Factors

Membership Growth

Sustained ~30% CAGR since IPO and continued enrollment guidance show durable scale expansion in Medicare Advantage. Larger membership builds revenue base, improves negotiating leverage with providers and spreads fixed costs, supporting long‑term profitability and growth optionality.

Strengthening Free Cash Flow

A material swing to positive operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility to fund network investments, support growth, and absorb medical cost volatility. This cash generation reduces reliance on external financing if sustained beyond timing/working‑capital effects.

High Plan Quality (Star Ratings)

Consistently high star ratings drive CMS bonuses, higher benchmarks, and stronger enrollee retention. This quality credential is durable, enhancing competitive positioning in MA markets, enabling richer benefits or lower premiums that support sustainable membership growth and margin stability.

Negative Factors

Elevated Financial Leverage

High leverage limits financial flexibility for a health plan operator subject to medical cost swings and regulatory changes. Debt servicing and covenant risk can constrain strategic investments or require dilutive financing if cash flows weaken, making capital structure a persistent risk.

Thin Margins and Remaining Net Losses

Low gross margins and a small negative net margin leave little buffer against rising medical utilization or adverse risk selection. Margin sensitivity in MA plans means any cost inflation or reimbursement shifts could quickly erode profitability and slow the path to sustained net income.

Industry Disruption & Seasonal Utilization Risk

Management flagging structural MA disruption and predictable seasonal utilization implies ongoing operational and reimbursement uncertainty. Persistent industry shifts or regulatory changes could pressure benchmarks, network contracts, and growth economics over multiple years, complicating execution.

Alignment Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alignment Healthcare, Inc., a tech-enabled Medicare advantage company, operates consumer-centric health care platform. It provides customized health care in the United States to seniors and those who need it through its Medicare advantage plans. The company owns Medicare advantage plans in the states of California, North Carolina, and Nevada. It also coordinates and provides covered health care services, including professional, institutional, and ancillary services to members enrolled in certain benefit plans of unaffiliated Medicare Advantage Health Maintenance Organizations. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Orange, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Alignment Healthcare generates revenue primarily through its Medicare Advantage plans, which are funded by the federal government. The company receives monthly premiums from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) for each enrolled member, based on a risk-adjusted payment model. Additionally, ALHC may earn supplemental revenue through care coordination and management services, as well as partnerships with healthcare providers and hospitals that enhance service delivery and patient outcomes. The company’s focus on value-based care, which emphasizes quality and efficiency, allows it to potentially benefit from shared savings programs and incentive structures aligned with improving patient health while controlling costs.

Alignment Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are improving, led by strong revenue growth (+9.0% TTM) and a major swing to healthy free cash flow ($172.3M TTM). Profitability is trending better (EBIT near break-even; net loss narrowed to -0.6% margin), but the balance sheet remains a key risk with high leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.0x) and negative ROE (~-16%).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is $3.64B with strong growth (+9.0%), showing solid top-line momentum versus the low-growth profile in 2024. Profitability has improved markedly: EBITDA margin turned positive (0.8%) and EBIT is near break-even, while net losses narrowed to -$20.8M (net margin -0.6%) from a much larger loss in 2024 (-4.7%). The main weakness remains thin gross margin (12.4%) and ongoing net losses, leaving limited cushion if medical costs or operating expenses rise.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains a key overhang. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt is $329.7M against equity of $161.9M, translating to high leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.0x), though improved from 2024 (~3.3x) as equity rebuilt. Total assets are $1.10B, but returns to shareholders are still negative (TTM return on equity ~-16%) due to continued net losses. Overall, the balance sheet is improving but still carries elevated financial risk for a healthcare plan operator.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened significantly in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow was $181.6M and free cash flow was $172.3M, a sharp turnaround from 2024 when free cash flow was slightly negative. This signals better working-capital and operating efficiency and provides flexibility to fund growth and absorb volatility. A watch item is that cash flow appears outsized relative to still-negative earnings, suggesting results may be helped by timing/working-capital benefits that can normalize.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.64B	2.70B	1.82B	1.43B	1.17B	959.22M
Gross Profit	451.60M	296.69M	201.03M	184.28M	128.73M	166.23M
EBITDA	29.02M	-77.44M	-105.30M	-113.53M	-161.81M	9.47M
Net Income	-20.81M	-128.03M	-148.02M	-149.55M	-195.29M	-22.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.10B	782.06M	591.88M	633.86M	630.89M	338.50M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	644.08M	470.65M	318.82M	409.55M	466.60M	207.31M
Total Debt	329.66M	329.26M	170.79M	164.60M	157.59M	154.44M
Total Liabilities	940.74M	681.11M	433.81M	394.56M	324.84M	307.89M
Stockholders Equity	161.87M	99.85M	156.95M	238.13M	306.04M	30.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	172.31M	-6.65M	-95.18M	-69.20M	-97.14M	-8.15M
Operating Cash Flow	181.59M	34.77M	-59.19M	-45.43M	-78.78M	7.56M
Investing Cash Flow	-13.73M	39.19M	-147.26M	-28.22M	-20.82M	-16.36M
Financing Cash Flow	109.62M	156.03M	105.00K	16.59M	360.13M	130.12M

Alignment Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 21.33
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALHC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.20, above the 50-day MA of 20.64, and above the 200-day MA of 16.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ALHC.

Alignment Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MOH	71 Outperform	$9.15B	10.96	19.71%	―	13.71%	-18.02%
HUM	69 Neutral	$23.10B	18.00	7.15%	1.38%	9.87%	-5.58%
ALHC	65 Neutral	$4.27B	-181.55	-15.06%	―	47.39%	85.35%
CNC	58 Neutral	$20.13B	-3.69	-21.93%	―	14.92%	-286.72%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CLOV	48 Neutral	$1.09B	-17.62	-16.90%	―	15.23%	38.79%
OSCR	45 Neutral	$3.50B	-11.12	-22.32%	―	37.38%	-912.18%

Alignment Healthcare Corporate Events

Alignment Healthcare Reports Strong Medicare Advantage Membership Growth

On January 12, 2026, Alignment Healthcare reported that its Medicare Advantage health plan membership rose 31% year over year to approximately 275,300 as of January 1, 2026, extending a roughly 30% compounded annual growth rate since its 2021 IPO and underscoring continued momentum in the MA market. Following a strong 2026 annual enrollment period, the company guided to 290,000 to 296,000 members by year‑end 2026 and said it expects consensus adjusted EBITDA of about $145 million in 2026 to fall within its forthcoming full‑year guidance range, while reaffirming its previously issued 2025 outlook for membership, revenue, adjusted gross profit and adjusted EBITDA; management highlighted that 100% of members remain in plans rated 4 stars or higher for the second consecutive year, reinforcing Alignment’s quality positioning and suggesting a supportive backdrop for continued scalable growth and shareholder value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALHC) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alignment Healthcare stock, see the ALHC Stock Forecast page.