Alignment Healthcare (ALHC)
NASDAQ:ALHC
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Alignment Healthcare
(NASDAQ:ALHC)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▼(-1.96% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/02/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (rapid revenue growth, turnaround toward profitability, and sharply reduced leverage) and a strong, growth-oriented 2026 outlook from management. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technicals and limited valuation support given negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Membership & Revenue Growth
Sustained enrollment growth expands recurring CMS capitation revenue and scales fixed distribution and care costs. Faster membership drives better numerator for per-member profitability, supports SG&A leverage, and underpins multi-quarter revenue visibility and investment capacity.
Negative Factors
Regulatory / Rate Uncertainty
CMS rate and risk-model changes can compress margins across the MA industry and directly affect capitation revenue mechanics. The V28 phase-in and potential rebasing create structural reimbursement risk that can persist across the next contract year and pressure projected MBR and adjusted gross profit.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Membership & Revenue Growth
Sustained enrollment growth expands recurring CMS capitation revenue and scales fixed distribution and care costs. Faster membership drives better numerator for per-member profitability, supports SG&A leverage, and underpins multi-quarter revenue visibility and investment capacity.
Read all positive factors
Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth47.39%
EPS Growth85.35%
CountryUS
Employees1,679
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.05
Shares Outstanding204,296,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,103,887
30 Day Avg. Volume3,079,094
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio54.31
Price to Book (P/B)21.81
Price to Sales (P/S)0.99
P/FCF Ratio34.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda75.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.14Price Target Upside40.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.18B
Alignment Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alignment Healthcare, Inc., a tech-enabled Medicare advantage company, operates consumer-centric health care platform. It provides customized health care in the United States to seniors and those who need it through its Medicare advantage plans. T...
How the Company Makes Money
Alignment Healthcare primarily makes money by enrolling eligible Medicare beneficiaries into its Medicare Advantage plans and receiving monthly payments from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) on a per-member basis. Revenue is larg...
Alignment Healthcare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong financial and operating progress: substantial membership and revenue growth, margin expansion, positive free cash flow, improved SG&A efficiency, market-quality achievements (100% 4+ star plans) and solid AEP momentum. Management acknowledged near-term headwinds from the final phase-in of V28, policy/rate uncertainty from CMS (advanced rate notice), and a higher first-year MBR driven by a heavier dual/LIS mix. Those risks were framed as manageable given the company’s clinically led model, technology platform and disciplined growth approach. Overall the positives (robust growth, profitability improvements, cash generation, and quality metrics) materially outweigh the moderate regulatory and mix-related lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Membership and Revenue Growth
Q4 health plan membership of 236,300 (≈25% YoY growth). Full-year membership up 25% YoY. Q4 revenue of $1.0B (44% YoY growth) and full-year revenue of $3.9B (46% YoY growth).
Negative Updates
Regulatory and Rate Uncertainty (Advanced Rate Notice / V28)
CMS advanced rate notice signaled a near-flat net rate environment (advanced notice referenced ~0.9% net), creating industry-wide concerns. Management flagged the third phase-in of the V28 risk model and potential risk-model rebasing as headwinds to MBR and pricing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Membership and Revenue Growth
Q4 health plan membership of 236,300 (≈25% YoY growth). Full-year membership up 25% YoY. Q4 revenue of $1.0B (44% YoY growth) and full-year revenue of $3.9B (46% YoY growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alignment's initial 2026 guidance calls for year-end membership of 292,000–298,000, revenue of $5.14–5.19 billion (midpoint $5.16B, ~31% YoY growth), adjusted gross profit of $615–650 million (midpoint $633M, implied MBR ~87.7%), and adjusted EBITDA of $133–163 million (consistent with prior consensus near $145M); first‑quarter 2026 guidance is 281,000–285,000 members, $1.21–1.23 billion revenue, $138–148 million adjusted gross profit and $26–36 million adjusted EBITDA. Management noted the guide assumes H1 MBR modestly below the full‑year average and H2 slightly above, a flatter Part D slope, no assumption for sweep pickup (2025 sweep benefited adjusted gross profit/EBITDA by ≈$14M, ~30 bps to consolidated MBR), revenue PMPMs balanced by higher benchmarks and Part D direct subsidy offset by the final phase‑in of V28 and ex‑California mix, and continued SG&A leverage (2025 adjusted SG&A $385M, 9.7% of revenue) while building on 2025 results (FY 2025: 236,300 members, $3.9B revenue, $495M adjusted gross profit, MBR 87.5% (+130 bps), $110M adjusted EBITDA, 2.8% adj. EBITDA margin, $604M cash/investments).Alignment Healthcare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.95B | 2.70B | 1.82B | 1.43B | 1.17B |
| Gross Profit | 488.56M | 296.69M | 201.03M | 184.28M | 128.73M |
| EBITDA | 45.24M | -77.44M | -105.30M | -113.53M | -161.81M |
| Net Income | -724.00K | -128.03M | -148.02M | -149.55M | -195.29M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.07B | 782.06M | 591.88M | 633.86M | 630.89M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 577.94M | 470.65M | 318.82M | 409.55M | 466.60M |
| Total Debt | 338.07M | 329.26M | 170.79M | 164.60M | 157.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 886.51M | 681.11M | 433.81M | 394.56M | 324.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 179.28M | 99.85M | 156.95M | 238.13M | 306.04M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 113.15M | -6.65M | -95.18M | -69.20M | -97.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 139.93M | 34.77M | -59.19M | -45.43M | -78.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.97M | 39.19M | -147.26M | -28.22M | -20.82M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 18.04M | 156.03M | 105.00K | 16.59M | 360.13M |
Alignment Healthcare Technical Analysis
Positive
17.85
Price Trends
19.72
Negative
19.45
Negative
17.41
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.61
Negative
46.81
Neutral
52.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.65, below the 50-day MA of 19.72, and above the 200-day MA of 17.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALHC.
Alignment Healthcare Risk Analysis
Alignment Healthcare disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alignment Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alignment Healthcare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $3.49B | -8.51 | -39.45% | ― | 37.38% | -912.18% | |
60 Neutral | $3.65B | -88.83 | -0.49% | ― | 47.39% | 85.35% | |
54 Neutral | $891.93M | -14.21 | -25.73% | ― | 15.23% | 38.79% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $16.70B | -3.03 | -27.74% | ― | 14.92% | -286.72% | |
49 Neutral | $6.99B | 18.68 | 10.99% | ― | 13.71% | -18.02% | |
47 Neutral | $20.82B | 25.97 | 6.59% | 1.38% | 9.87% | -5.58% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ALHC
Alignment Healthcare
17.85
-0.66
-3.57%
CNC
Centene
33.95
-30.34
-47.19%
HUM
Humana
176.95
-84.40
-32.29%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
135.82
-217.42
-61.55%
CLOV
Clover Health Investments
1.70
-1.81
-51.57%
OSCR
Oscar Health
11.73
-1.88
-13.81%
Alignment Healthcare Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alignment Healthcare announces secondary offering by major shareholder
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Alignment Healthcare, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and a selling stockholder for an underwritten secondary offering of 13,167,733 shares of the company’s common stock held by t...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alignment Healthcare Reports Strong Medicare Advantage Membership Growth
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Alignment Healthcare reported that its Medicare Advantage health plan membership rose 31% year over year to approximately 275,300 as of January 1, 2026, extending a roughly 30% compounded annual growth rate since its 2021 IPO ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.