Origin Materials (ORGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $63.17M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: -11.91%
• EPS Growth: -26768.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 109
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): -0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 149,944,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 868,568
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,363,942
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.25
• 1Y Price Target: $1.50
• Price Target Upside: 257.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.50 ▲(19.05%Upside)

Origin Materials' overall stock score is heavily impacted by its financial performance challenges, particularly negative profit margins and cash flow issues. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and valuation metrics are unfavorable with a negative P/E ratio. Although there is interest in the company's products and strategic partnerships, delays in revenue generation and product qualification weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

Contracts and Expansion

ORGN secures $100mn contract for PET caps, expanding its production capabilities in the US and Europe.

Financial Performance

Origin's PET-based caps and closures have potential, with plans to produce millions of caps and generate positive EBITDA.

Negative Factors

Leadership Changes

The departure of co-CEO Rich Riley, who led the CMF commercialization effort, adds to the uncertainty.

Technology Uncertainty

The future of Origin's cellulose-based technology is uncertain, leading to a lower stock rating.

Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Materials (ORGN) is a leading sustainable materials company focused on revolutionizing the production of carbon-negative materials for a variety of industries. Operating within the chemicals and materials sector, Origin Materials specializes in developing innovative, bio-based solutions that replace petroleum-based products, aiming to reduce environmental impact. The company's core products leverage proprietary technology to convert biomass into versatile building blocks used in the production of plastics, textiles, packaging, and other materials.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Materials generates revenue through the commercialization of its bio-based materials, which are sold to manufacturers seeking sustainable alternatives to traditional, petroleum-based products. The company's revenue streams primarily include the sale of its carbon-negative materials and technology licensing agreements that enable other companies to utilize Origin's proprietary technology for their own production processes. Significant partnerships with industry leaders in sectors such as consumer goods, packaging, and automotive also contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations often involve joint development agreements and supply contracts. Additionally, Origin Materials may benefit from government incentives and grants aimed at promoting sustainable manufacturing practices.

Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Materials faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges as reflected in the negative profit margins and operating cash flow. Despite a strong equity position, the company needs to address its operational inefficiencies to improve financial health. The balance sheet remains stable with manageable debt levels, but the overall financial outlook is constrained by ongoing losses.

Income Statement

Origin Materials shows a volatile revenue trajectory with recent declines. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is low at 9.05%, and the net profit margin is negative, reflecting significant losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating challenges in covering operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting conservative leverage usage, which is a positive sign. However, the return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses, and the equity ratio is strong at 90.13%, indicating financial stability and reliance on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow is negative, but there is a slight improvement in free cash flow growth rate from the previous period. Operating cash flow remains negative and is significantly lower than net income, reflecting cash flow challenges. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also unfavorable.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
29.89M	31.28M	28.80M	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
2.70M	418.00K	5.21M	-1.29M	-824.00K	-479.00K
	EBIT
-84.32M	-84.86M	-54.88M	-38.95M	50.78M	-10.38M
	EBITDA
-83.95M	-71.94M	26.20M	79.86M	45.75M	-10.70M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-96.22M	-83.70M	23.80M	78.57M	42.09M	-30.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
83.05M	102.92M	158.26M	323.32M	444.10M	1.31M
	Total Assets
348.98M	378.03M	461.83M	493.70M	510.42M	47.43M
	Total Debt
7.56M	9.68M	9.76M	8.71M	6.96M	9.33M
	Net Debt
-36.27M	-46.62M	-65.74M	-99.14M	-39.68M	8.02M
	Total Liabilities
34.37M	39.66M	39.33M	116.80M	206.91M	47.31M
	Stockholders Equity
314.61M	338.37M	422.51M	376.90M	303.51M	123.00K
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-56.54M	-59.78M	-170.46M	-110.03M	-34.51M	-7.51M
	Operating Cash Flow
-42.53M	-50.83M	-60.35M	-26.09M	-22.04M	-5.46M
	Investing Cash Flow
19.76M	28.56M	26.23M	88.85M	-411.64M	-2.05M
	Financing Cash Flow
-7.63M	3.56M	146.00K	1.25M	478.95M	5.83M

Origin Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.47, below the 50-day MA of 0.58, and below the 200-day MA of 1.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORGN.

Origin Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LOOP	51 Neutral	$72.05M	―	-207.57%	―	7064.47%	28.67%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.03B	-1.27	-21.09%	3.98%	2.91%	-30.50%
ABAT	50 Neutral	$122.13M	―	-88.49%	―	―	-42.39%
PLL	50 Neutral	$132.99M	―	-19.11%	―	―	―
ALTO	46 Neutral	$90.34M	―	-24.43%	―	-17.27%	-112.62%
ORGN	44 Neutral	$63.17M	―	-26.63%	―	-11.91%	-26768.00%
AREC	35 Underperform	$71.70M	―	63.45%	―	-98.13%	-444.28%

Origin Materials Corporate Events

Origin Materials Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 6, 2025, Origin Materials held its annual stockholders meeting virtually, with 59.89% of shares represented. Key decisions included the election of two Class I directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Origin Materials Director Pia Heidenmark Cook Steps Down

On April 28, 2025, Pia Heidenmark Cook informed Origin Materials, Inc. that she will not seek reelection as a director at the upcoming Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 6, 2025. Her decision was not due to any disagreement with the company or its board. Following her departure, the board plans to reduce its size from eight to seven directors.