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Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN)
:ORGN
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Origin Materials
(NASDAQ:ORGN)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$0.50
▲( 2.04% Upside)
Positive Factors
Contracts and Expansion
ORGN secures $100mn contract for PET caps, expanding its production capabilities in the US and Europe.
Financial Performance
Origin's PET-based caps and closures have potential, with plans to produce millions of caps and generate positive EBITDA.
Negative Factors
Leadership Changes
The departure of co-CEO Rich Riley, who led the CMF commercialization effort, adds to the uncertainty.
Technology Uncertainty
The future of Origin's cellulose-based technology is uncertain, leading to a lower stock rating.
Origin Materials (ORGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$73.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth-11.91%
EPS Growth-26768.00%
CountryUS
Employees109
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength60
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.21
Shares Outstanding149,944,780
10 Day Avg. Volume2,455,913
30 Day Avg. Volume1,333,648
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-12.19
Price to Book (P/B)297.16
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-1.75
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1.50Price Target Upside206.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering0
Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOrigin Materials (ORGN) is a leading sustainable materials company focused on revolutionizing the production of carbon-negative materials for a variety of industries. Operating within the chemicals and materials sector, Origin Materials specializes in developing innovative, bio-based solutions that replace petroleum-based products, aiming to reduce environmental impact. The company's core products leverage proprietary technology to convert biomass into versatile building blocks used in the production of plastics, textiles, packaging, and other materials.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrigin Materials generates revenue through the commercialization of its bio-based materials, which are sold to manufacturers seeking sustainable alternatives to traditional, petroleum-based products. The company's revenue streams primarily include the sale of its carbon-negative materials and technology licensing agreements that enable other companies to utilize Origin's proprietary technology for their own production processes. Significant partnerships with industry leaders in sectors such as consumer goods, packaging, and automotive also contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations often involve joint development agreements and supply contracts. Additionally, Origin Materials may benefit from government incentives and grants aimed at promoting sustainable manufacturing practices.
Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Origin Materials presents a mixed financial picture. While revenue is growing, profitability and cash flows are under strain. The balance sheet remains stable, though declining equity levels could pose future risks. Improvements in operational efficiency are necessary to enhance financial health.Income Statement
Origin Materials shows a challenging financial performance with negative EBIT and net income in the latest year, reflecting operational difficulties. Despite a positive revenue growth, the gross profit margin is low, suggesting high costs relative to revenue.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is relatively strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio and a high equity ratio, indicating financial stability. However, the company has been experiencing declining equity levels over the years, which could be a concern if this trend continues.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow performance is mixed, featuring negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, which could affect operational sustainability. The positive free cash flow growth rate from the previous year offers some optimism, but overall cash flow remains under pressure.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 31.28M | 28.80M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| 418.00K | 5.21M | -1.29M | -824.00K | -479.00K | EBIT |
| -84.86M | -54.88M | 57.02M | 50.78M | -10.38M | EBITDA |
| -71.94M | 26.82M | 79.86M | 45.75M | -10.70M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -83.70M | 23.80M | 78.57M | -37.05M | -31.45M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 102.92M | 158.26M | 323.32M | 444.10M | 1.31M | Total Assets |
| 378.03M | 461.83M | 493.70M | 510.42M | 47.43M | Total Debt |
| 9.68M | 9.76M | 8.71M | 6.96M | 9.33M | Net Debt |
| -46.62M | -65.74M | -99.14M | -39.68M | 8.02M | Total Liabilities |
| 39.66M | 39.33M | 116.80M | 206.91M | 47.31M | Stockholders Equity |
| 338.37M | 422.51M | 376.90M | 303.51M | 123.00K |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -59.78M | -170.46M | -110.03M | -34.51M | -7.51M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -50.83M | -60.35M | -26.09M | -22.04M | -5.46M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 28.56M | 26.23M | 88.85M | -411.64M | -2.05M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 3.56M | 146.00K | 1.25M | 478.95M | 5.83M |
Origin Materials Technical Analysis
Negative
0.49
Price Trends
0.67
Negative
0.83
Negative
1.07
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
35.84
Neutral
28.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.66, below the 50-day MA of 0.67, and below the 200-day MA of 1.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORGN.
Origin Materials Risk Analysis
Origin Materials disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Materials reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Our products may not achieve market success, but will still require significant costs to develop, which could harm our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Q4, 2024
2.
We may not realize the expected benefits from our recent workforce reduction, and it could result in total costs and expenses that are greater than expected and could disrupt our business. Q4, 2024
3.
We are subject to ESG risks, including in relation to our counterparties, which may adversely affect our reputation and ability to retain employees and customers. Q4, 2024
Origin Materials Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
50 Neutral | $127.72M | ― | -88.49% | ― | ― | -42.39% | |
50 Neutral | $139.80M | ― | -19.11% | ― | ― | ― | |
50 Neutral | $2.00B | -1.02 | -21.34% | 3.70% | 2.00% | -30.65% | |
46 Neutral | $73.68M | ― | -26.63% | ― | -11.91% | -26768.00% | |
38 Underperform | $46.03M | ― | -449.80% | ― | 5.45% | -155.56% | |
37 Underperform | $69.51M | ― | -24.43% | ― | -17.27% | -112.62% | |
35 Underperform | $71.51M | ― | 63.45% | ― | -98.13% | -444.28% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ORGN
Origin Materials
0.49
-0.46
-48.42%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
0.92
-0.65
-41.40%
AREC
American Resources
0.70
-0.56
-44.44%
LOOP
Loop Industries
0.96
-1.90
-66.43%
ABAT
American Battery Technology
1.32
-0.11
-7.69%
PLL
Piedmont Lithium
6.23
-8.51
-57.73%
Origin Materials Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -24.62%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a balance between significant interest and strategic partnerships in Origin's PET cap solutions and challenges related to delays in revenue generation and product qualification. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a strong financial position and is actively addressing supply chain issues.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Interest in PET Cap Solutions
Over 20 companies, including 6 Fortune 500 companies, are in the process of qualifying Origin's PET cap solutions. Customer interest remains robust with 65 new inquiries in the last six weeks.
Strategic Customer Agreement
A signed strategic customer agreement was announced with a multibillion-dollar packaging company for the development of large format PET closures for the ready-to-drink, wine, and spirits market.
CapFormer Technology Improvements
Improvements in CapFormer technology have led to expected increases in throughput, with lines 2 and 3 expected to achieve double the original throughput of line 1, and lines 4 and beyond tripling line 1's output.
Financial Health
The company ended the quarter with $83 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities. Efforts to line up debt financing for CapFormer equipment purchases are underway with a goal of 50% to 70% total coverage.
Negative Updates
Delayed Revenue Generation
Commercial-scale PET cap revenue generation has been deferred by one to three quarters due to customer product qualification taking longer than expected. Revenue is now expected at $50 million to $70 million in 2026 and $150 million to $210 million in 2027.
Global Supply Chain Disruption
Uncertainty due to global manufacturing supply chain disruptions, tariffs, and protectionist trade policies has led to revisions in plans and assumptions of a 10% tariff on equipment imported from Europe.
Challenges in Product Qualification
The qualification process for PET caps is taking longer than initially anticipated, with expectations adjusted from six to twelve months to one to two years due to the complexity and variability of customer requirements.
Company Guidance
During Origin Materials' First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company updated its revenue and profitability guidance due to delays in customer product qualification for its PET cap solution. Origin now expects to generate revenue between $50 million and $70 million in 2026, with a projection of $150 million to $210 million in 2027. The company aims to achieve run-rate Adjusted EBITDA positive by late 2026, contingent on operating 8 to 10 CapFormer lines at scale. Despite external challenges such as global supply chain disruptions and tariffs, Origin is adjusting its CapFormer deployment and supply chain strategies to mitigate these impacts. The company ended the quarter with $83 million in cash and is pursuing equipment and corporate debt financing to support its growth and maintain financial flexibility.Origin Materials Corporate Events
Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Origin Materials Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 8, 2025
On May 6, 2025, Origin Materials held its annual stockholders meeting virtually, with 59.89% of shares represented. Key decisions included the election of two Class I directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Origin Materials Director Pia Heidenmark Cook Steps Down
Neutral
May 2, 2025
On April 28, 2025, Pia Heidenmark Cook informed Origin Materials, Inc. that she will not seek reelection as a director at the upcoming Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 6, 2025. Her decision was not due to any disagreement with the company or its board. Following her departure, the board plans to reduce its size from eight to seven directors.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.