Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN)
NASDAQ:ORGN
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Origin Materials
(NASDAQ:ORGN)
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Rating:40Underperform
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(226.09% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/16/26
The score is primarily driven by very weak financial performance (deep losses and persistent cash burn) and a strongly bearish technical setup. Risk is further elevated by the delayed profitability timeline and tight liquidity described on the earnings call, plus the subsequent liquidation/dissolution plan; valuation offers little support given the extreme negative P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Product validation & customer trials
Validated PET cap design that meets industry ball-impact and heated stress benchmarks and active trials with ~30 prospects materially reduce commercialization risk. Sustained customer validation supports durable adoption potential across closures markets as iterations complete.
Negative Factors
Board-approved liquidation plan & CEO change
A board-approved liquidation plan and leadership transition fundamentally alter the company’s operating trajectory and signal the board prioritizes asset realization over long‑term commercialization. This structural shift undermines execution continuity and partner/customer confidence over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Product validation & customer trials
Validated PET cap design that meets industry ball-impact and heated stress benchmarks and active trials with ~30 prospects materially reduce commercialization risk. Sustained customer validation supports durable adoption potential across closures markets as iterations complete.
Read all positive factors
Origin Materials (ORGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.20M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth-53.26%
EPS Growth-138.52%
CountryUS
Employees109
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-47.70
Shares Outstanding5,502,770
10 Day Avg. Volume2,650,373
30 Day Avg. Volume1,028,615
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.30
Price to Sales (P/S)1.66
P/FCF Ratio-0.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-8.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.02
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-9.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$112.00M
Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Micromidas, Inc., doing business as Origin Materials, produces and commercializes plant-based PET plastic. It develops a platform for turning the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while capturing carbon in the process. The company ser...
How the Company Makes Money
Origin Materials’ business model centers on monetizing its biomass-to-chemicals technology through (1) selling products made at its own manufacturing plants and (2) licensing its technology to other manufacturers, often alongside engineering/servi...
Origin Materials Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call conveyed meaningful technical and commercial progress — a validated new PET cap design, an initial retail placement, distribution partnerships, and full procurement of production lines — but these positives are overshadowed by significant financial and execution risks: a $165.9M impairment tied to ceasing the furanics platform, constrained liquidity with cash runway into Q3 2026 absent financing, limited access to existing facilities due to low stock price, and a one-year delay to adjusted EBITDA breakeven (2027 to 2028). While product prospects and partner interest remain, near-term survival and slower-than-expected commercialization elevate downside risk.Positive Updates
Product Development Progress — Improved PET Cap Design
Origin delivered the latest iteration of PET caps to multiple world-class beverage brands; internal testing shows market improvement in seal performance and impact resistance, meeting industry benchmarks on ball impact and heated stress testing. Approximately 30 key prospects are receiving and evaluating the latest design.
Negative Updates
Large Impairment from Cessation of Furanics Platform
Origin ceased further investment in the furanics platform (OM1/OM2). A third-party assessment led to an adjusted fair value of $18 million for these assets and recognition of a $165.9 million impairment expense in Q4 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Product Development Progress — Improved PET Cap Design
Origin delivered the latest iteration of PET caps to multiple world-class beverage brands; internal testing shows market improvement in seal performance and impact resistance, meeting industry benchmarks on ball impact and heated stress testing. Approximately 30 key prospects are receiving and evaluating the latest design.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated guidance by pushing adjusted EBITDA run‑rate breakeven from 2027 to not prior to 2028 and saying commercialization will be more gradual (multiple smaller product launches rather than one big ramp); absent near‑term financing and further cost cuts they estimate current cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $53.5M (12/31/25), plus $13M net accounts receivable and $9.1M land held for use, will fund operations into Q3 2026. Other key metrics: $15M of convertible debt outstanding (initial convertible facility tranche was $15M with optional capacity up to $90M), a nonbinding $20M equipment term sheet that did not convert, a $165.9M Q4 impairment leaving OM1/OM2 adjusted fair value of $18M, and six CapFormer lines fully procured and projected for installation by year‑end 2026; management declined to reissue revenue guidance (prior references were $20–30M in 2026 and $100–200M in 2027).Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.97M | 18.92M | 31.28M | 28.80M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -617.00K | 541.00K | 418.00K | 5.21M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -229.49M | -237.78M | -71.94M | 26.20M | 79.86M | 45.75M |
| Net Income | -240.91M | -249.70M | -83.70M | 23.80M | 78.57M | 42.09M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 135.07M | 157.66M | 378.03M | 461.83M | 493.70M | 510.42M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 32.65M | 53.47M | 102.92M | 158.26M | 323.32M | 444.10M |
| Total Debt | 15.87M | 27.71M | 9.68M | 9.76M | 8.71M | 6.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 46.76M | 53.45M | 39.66M | 39.33M | 116.80M | 206.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 88.32M | 104.21M | 338.37M | 422.51M | 376.90M | 303.51M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -59.40M | -63.00M | -59.78M | -170.46M | -109.78M | -34.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -29.22M | -32.79M | -50.83M | -60.35M | -26.09M | -22.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.36M | -1.07M | 28.56M | 26.23M | 88.85M | -411.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.56M | 10.66M | 3.56M | 146.00K | 1.25M | 478.95M |
Origin Materials Technical Analysis
Negative
0.46
Price Trends
2.27
Negative
3.83
Negative
9.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Negative
40.21
Neutral
23.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.69, below the 50-day MA of 2.27, and below the 200-day MA of 9.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORGN.
Origin Materials Risk Analysis
Origin Materials disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Materials reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Origin Materials Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $932.83M | 13.80 | 8.91% | ― | 21.54% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | $588.52M | ― | 1.28% | 3.81% | -0.63% | -87.72% | |
48 Neutral | $580.65M | -2.20 | -153.52% | ― | -10.59% | -571.99% | |
47 Neutral | $178.96M | -2.06 | -32.51% | 7.12% | -45.63% | -707.66% | |
47 Neutral | $1.23B | -3.77 | -31.25% | 8.27% | -4.02% | -206.93% | |
40 Underperform | $8.20M | ― | -120.66% | ― | -53.26% | -138.52% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
ORGN
Origin Materials
1.53
-12.89
-89.39%
FF
Futurefuel
4.12
0.46
12.41%
LXU
Lsb Industries
13.04
5.72
78.14%
TROX
TRONOX
7.55
3.01
66.45%
RYAM
Rayonier Advanced Materials
8.73
4.84
124.42%
ASIX
AdvanSix
22.26
-0.15
-0.67%
Origin Materials Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Origin Materials Plans Complete Liquidation and Leadership Transition
Negative
May 1, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Origin Materials said its board had approved a plan of complete liquidation and dissolution, subject to shareholder approval, and moved to wind down the business through an orderly sale of its technology and other assets. As part o...
Delistings and Listing ChangesStock Split
Origin Materials Enacts One-for-Thirty Reverse Stock Split
Neutral
Mar 19, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Origin Materials implemented a one-for-thirty reverse stock split of its common stock, following stockholder approval on February 17, 2026 and board approval of the ratio on March 4, 2026, automatically converting every 30 outst...
Shareholder MeetingsStock Split
Origin Materials Announces One-for-30 Reverse Stock Split
Neutral
Mar 11, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Origin Materials’ board approved a one-for-30 reverse stock split of its common shares, following stockholder authorization at a February 17, 2026 special meeting. The split, effective at 5:00 p.m. Eastern on March 19, 2026...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Origin Materials Shareholders Approve Reverse Split, Note Conversion
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Origin Materials, Inc. held a virtual special meeting of stockholders, with 54.32% of outstanding common shares represented, constituting a quorum for business. Stockholders approved an amendment to the certificate of incorpo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.