Origin Materials (ORGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $66.61M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 868.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.43
• Revenue Growth: -28.47%
• EPS Growth: 16.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 109
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): -0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 151,149,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 690,153
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 868,559
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.86
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.07
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.43
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 62.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.50
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $45.75M

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.42 ▼(-9.57% Downside)

Origin Materials faces significant financial and operational challenges, reflected in its low financial performance and valuation scores. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while recent corporate events add further risks. Despite some positive developments in financing and technology, the overall outlook remains cautious.

Positive Factors

Technological Advancements

Technological advancements in PET caps enhance product quality and competitive edge, potentially increasing market share in packaging.

Strong Equity Base

A strong equity base with low leverage provides financial stability and flexibility to invest in growth opportunities without excessive risk.

Secured Financing

Secured financing provides liquidity to support manufacturing expansion, crucial for scaling operations and meeting future demand.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue indicates challenges in market penetration and sales growth, which could hinder long-term financial performance.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow suggests operational inefficiencies and may limit the ability to fund new projects or respond to market changes.

Potential Delisting Risk

Potential delisting from Nasdaq could reduce investor confidence and limit access to capital markets, affecting future growth prospects.

Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Materials (ORGN) is a sustainable materials company focused on transforming renewable feedstocks into cost-competitive, sustainable materials that can replace petroleum-based products. Operating primarily in the sectors of advanced materials and bioplastics, Origin Materials leverages innovative technology to produce a range of products, including bio-based chemicals and plastics. The company's core offerings aim to serve various industries, such as packaging, textiles, and automotive, contributing to a circular economy and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Materials generates revenue through the production and sale of its sustainable materials, primarily derived from its proprietary technology that converts biomass into bio-based chemicals and plastics. Key revenue streams include direct sales of these materials to manufacturers in different sectors that are looking to reduce their carbon footprint and transition to more sustainable alternatives. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships with other industry players to co-develop products or technologies, enhancing its market reach and driving sales. Long-term contracts and agreements with customers can also provide stable revenue streams, while the increasing global demand for eco-friendly products positions Origin Materials for growth in a rapidly evolving market.

Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Materials is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability issues. Despite a strong equity base and low leverage, the company's inability to generate positive cash flow and returns on equity are concerning.

Income Statement

Origin Materials shows a declining revenue trend with a negative revenue growth rate of -12.37% in the TTM. The company is struggling with profitability, evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is very low at 1.28%, indicating challenges in cost management or pricing strategy.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.024, suggesting low leverage and financial stability. However, the negative return on equity of -27.05% indicates inefficiencies in generating returns from shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals negative operating and free cash flows, indicating cash burn. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.63, suggesting some efficiency in converting earnings to cash, but the overall cash flow position is weak with negative growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.12M	31.28M	28.80M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	464.00K	418.00K	5.21M	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-57.30M	-71.94M	26.20M	79.86M	45.75M	-10.70M
Net Income	-69.09M	-83.70M	23.80M	78.57M	42.09M	-30.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	327.35M	378.03M	461.83M	493.70M	510.42M	47.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.34M	102.92M	158.26M	323.32M	444.10M	1.31M
Total Debt	5.67M	9.68M	9.76M	8.71M	6.96M	9.33M
Total Liabilities	32.36M	39.66M	39.33M	116.80M	206.91M	47.31M
Stockholders Equity	294.99M	338.37M	422.51M	376.90M	303.51M	123.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-54.51M	-59.78M	-170.46M	-109.78M	-34.51M	-7.51M
Operating Cash Flow	-29.58M	-50.83M	-60.35M	-26.09M	-22.04M	-5.46M
Investing Cash Flow	16.98M	28.56M	26.23M	88.85M	-411.64M	-2.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.01M	3.56M	146.00K	1.25M	478.95M	5.83M

Origin Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.46
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.45, below the 50-day MA of 0.54, and below the 200-day MA of 0.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORGN.

Origin Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ASIX	59 Neutral	$449.44M	8.70	6.62%	3.93%	-5.05%	35.01%
LXU	58 Neutral	$587.07M	-769.81	-0.13%	―	12.49%	95.48%
TROX	57 Neutral	$608.84M	―	-18.65%	7.38%	-7.81%	-334.15%
FF	54 Neutral	$139.29M	―	-18.09%	6.94%	-49.82%	-195.74%
RYAM	49 Neutral	$418.11M	―	-78.11%	―	-9.75%	-386.63%
ORGN	42 Neutral	$66.61M	―	-21.13%	―	-28.47%	16.83%

Origin Materials Corporate Events

Origin Materials Amends Bylaws to Alter Quorum Rules

On December 11, 2025, Origin Materials, Inc. announced amendments to its Bylaws, changing the quorum requirements for shareholder meetings. The new rules reduce the quorum from a majority to one-third of outstanding shares, potentially impacting shareholder decision-making processes and the company’s governance dynamics.

Origin Materials Reaches Preliminary Settlement in Lawsuit

On November 25, 2025, the United States District Court for the Eastern District of California preliminarily approved a settlement in a stockholder derivative action involving Origin Materials, Inc. The settlement addresses allegations that company executives breached fiduciary duties by issuing misleading statements and failing to disclose significant operational challenges, including chemical fouling issues and delays in their Origin 2 project. These issues led to a significant decline in the company’s stock price and subsequent legal actions. The settlement aims to resolve these derivative matters, although the defendants deny any liability.

Origin Materials Enters $100M Securities Purchase Agreement

On November 13, 2025, Origin Materials, Inc., a Delaware corporation, entered into a securities purchase agreement with an institutional purchaser for the issuance of senior secured convertible notes worth up to $100 million. The notes, which bear no interest unless in default, are convertible into common stock at a set conversion price, with the initial closing expected around November 17, 2025, for $16.7 million in notes. The company plans to seek stockholder approval for issuing conversion shares exceeding 19.99% of its outstanding common stock. This agreement includes customary events of default and requires the company to maintain certain financial conditions, such as a minimum cash reserve. The issuance is part of a registered direct offering under a prospectus supplement to an effective registration statement.

Origin Materials Secures $11.18M Financing for PET Equipment

On September 22, 2025, Origin Closures, LLC, a subsidiary of Origin Materials, executed a Secured Promissory Note with Starlinger & Co Gesellschaft m.b.H. to finance equipment for producing polyethylene terephthalate (PET) sheets. The Note, effective October 7, 2025, amounts to approximately $11.18 million and carries an interest rate of 10.56% per annum, with repayment scheduled semi-annually until October 2029. The Note is secured by the equipment and includes provisions for default. Additionally, Origin Materials executed a Guaranty Agreement to ensure the performance and payment obligations under the Note, effective the same date.

Origin Materials Granted Extension to Meet Nasdaq Listing

Origin Materials has been notified by Nasdaq that its common stock did not meet the minimum $1.00 bid price requirement for continuous listing. As of October 7, 2025, the company has been granted an additional 180 days, until April 6, 2026, to regain compliance. The company plans to monitor its stock price closely and consider a reverse stock split if necessary to meet the requirement. Failure to comply by the deadline may result in delisting, although the company can appeal such a decision.