Origin Materials (ORGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $32.11M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.26
• Revenue Growth: -28.47%
• EPS Growth: 16.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 109
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): -0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 155,216,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,591,644
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,354,909
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.86
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.07
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 62.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.50
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $112.00M

• Rating: 40 Underperform
• Price Target: $0.20 ▼(-57.39% Downside)

ORGN scores low primarily due to weak financial performance (declining revenue, poor margins, and ongoing cash burn) and strongly bearish technicals (price far below major moving averages with negative MACD and very weak momentum). Guidance and financing progress provide some support, but near-term execution and listing-risk overhangs keep the overall score depressed.

Positive Factors

Technological Advancements

Technological advancements in PET caps enhance product durability and competitive edge, supporting long-term market position.

Financing Flexibility

Increased financing flexibility strengthens capital structure, enabling strategic investments and operational expansion.

Sustainable Materials Demand

Growing demand for sustainable materials in packaging supports revenue growth and aligns with global eco-friendly trends.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue indicates challenges in market penetration and product adoption, affecting long-term financial stability.

Negative Margins

Sustained negative margins reflect cost management issues, impacting profitability and long-term operational viability.

Cash Burn Rate

High cash burn rate strains financial resources, limiting investment capacity and increasing reliance on external financing.

Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Micromidas, Inc., doing business as Origin Materials, produces and commercializes plant-based PET plastic. It develops a platform for turning the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while capturing carbon in the process. The company serves tire filler, carbon black, agriculture, and activated carbon markets. Micromidas, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Palantir Technologies Inc. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in West Sacramento, California with a facility in Sarnia, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Materials generates revenue through the production and sale of its sustainable materials, primarily derived from its proprietary technology that converts biomass into bio-based chemicals and plastics. Key revenue streams include direct sales of these materials to manufacturers in different sectors that are looking to reduce their carbon footprint and transition to more sustainable alternatives. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships with other industry players to co-develop products or technologies, enhancing its market reach and driving sales. Long-term contracts and agreements with customers can also provide stable revenue streams, while the increasing global demand for eco-friendly products positions Origin Materials for growth in a rapidly evolving market.

Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Materials is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability issues. Despite a strong equity base and low leverage, the company's inability to generate positive cash flow and returns on equity are concerning.

Income Statement

Origin Materials shows a declining revenue trend with a negative revenue growth rate of -12.37% in the TTM. The company is struggling with profitability, evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is very low at 1.28%, indicating challenges in cost management or pricing strategy.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.024, suggesting low leverage and financial stability. However, the negative return on equity of -27.05% indicates inefficiencies in generating returns from shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals negative operating and free cash flows, indicating cash burn. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.63, suggesting some efficiency in converting earnings to cash, but the overall cash flow position is weak with negative growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.12M	31.28M	28.80M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	464.00K	418.00K	5.21M	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-57.30M	-71.94M	26.20M	79.86M	45.75M	-10.70M
Net Income	-69.09M	-83.70M	23.80M	78.57M	42.09M	-30.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	327.35M	378.03M	461.83M	493.70M	510.42M	47.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.34M	102.92M	158.26M	323.32M	444.10M	1.31M
Total Debt	5.67M	9.68M	9.76M	8.71M	6.96M	9.33M
Total Liabilities	32.36M	39.66M	39.33M	116.80M	206.91M	47.31M
Stockholders Equity	294.99M	338.37M	422.51M	376.90M	303.51M	123.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-54.51M	-59.78M	-170.46M	-109.78M	-34.51M	-7.51M
Operating Cash Flow	-29.58M	-50.83M	-60.35M	-26.09M	-22.04M	-5.46M
Investing Cash Flow	16.98M	28.56M	26.23M	88.85M	-411.64M	-2.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.01M	3.56M	146.00K	1.25M	478.95M	5.83M

Origin Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.46
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.23, above the 50-day MA of 0.37, and below the 200-day MA of 0.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORGN.

Origin Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
LXU	58 Neutral	$712.97M	-938.68	-0.13%	―	12.49%	95.48%
ASIX	58 Neutral	$495.37M	9.59	6.62%	3.81%	-5.05%	35.01%
TROX	57 Neutral	$906.92M	-2.86	-18.65%	8.27%	-7.81%	-334.15%
RYAM	52 Neutral	$521.97M	-1.37	-78.11%	―	-9.75%	-386.63%
FF	51 Neutral	$149.37M	-4.28	-18.09%	7.12%	-49.82%	-195.74%
ORGN	40 Underperform	$32.11M	-0.43	-21.13%	―	-28.47%	16.83%

Origin Materials Corporate Events

Origin Materials Expands Convertible Note Financing Agreement

On December 22, 2025, Origin Materials, Inc. amended a previously executed Securities Purchase Agreement with an institutional investor governing the issuance of senior secured convertible notes in multiple tranches. The amendment obligates the purchaser, subject to certain conditions, to buy up to an additional $83.3 million of notes in tranches of up to $25 million at the company’s request and permits Origin Materials to guarantee its subsidiaries’ obligations related to permitted indebtedness and sale-leaseback transactions, bolstering the company’s financing flexibility and capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORGN) stock is a Hold with a $0.28 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Materials stock, see the ORGN Stock Forecast page.

Origin Materials Amends Bylaws to Alter Quorum Rules

On December 11, 2025, Origin Materials, Inc. announced amendments to its Bylaws, changing the quorum requirements for shareholder meetings. The new rules reduce the quorum from a majority to one-third of outstanding shares, potentially impacting shareholder decision-making processes and the company’s governance dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORGN) stock is a Hold with a $0.42 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Materials stock, see the ORGN Stock Forecast page.

Origin Materials Reaches Preliminary Settlement in Lawsuit

On November 25, 2025, the United States District Court for the Eastern District of California preliminarily approved a settlement in a stockholder derivative action involving Origin Materials, Inc. The settlement addresses allegations that company executives breached fiduciary duties by issuing misleading statements and failing to disclose significant operational challenges, including chemical fouling issues and delays in their Origin 2 project. These issues led to a significant decline in the company’s stock price and subsequent legal actions. The settlement aims to resolve these derivative matters, although the defendants deny any liability.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORGN) stock is a Hold with a $0.43 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Materials stock, see the ORGN Stock Forecast page.

Origin Materials Enters $100M Securities Purchase Agreement

On November 13, 2025, Origin Materials, Inc., a Delaware corporation, entered into a securities purchase agreement with an institutional purchaser for the issuance of senior secured convertible notes worth up to $100 million. The notes, which bear no interest unless in default, are convertible into common stock at a set conversion price, with the initial closing expected around November 17, 2025, for $16.7 million in notes. The company plans to seek stockholder approval for issuing conversion shares exceeding 19.99% of its outstanding common stock. This agreement includes customary events of default and requires the company to maintain certain financial conditions, such as a minimum cash reserve. The issuance is part of a registered direct offering under a prospectus supplement to an effective registration statement.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORGN) stock is a Hold with a $0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Materials stock, see the ORGN Stock Forecast page.