Origin Materials (ORGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $116.48M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.01M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: -11.91%
• EPS Growth: -26768.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 109
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): -0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 149,944,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,445,755
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,012,821
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.61
• 1Y Price Target: $0.50
• Price Target Upside: -31.51% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.50 ▼(-31.51%Downside)

Origin Materials' stock score is driven by substantial profitability and cash flow challenges, as well as valuation concerns due to ongoing losses. While technical indicators show short-term bullish momentum, the stock is likely overbought. The company's strong cash position and strategic partnerships provide some optimism, but delays in revenue generation and supply chain issues pose significant risks.

Positive Factors

Contracts and Expansion

ORGN secures $100mn contract for PET caps, expanding its production capabilities in the US and Europe.

Financial Performance

Origin's PET-based caps and closures have potential, with plans to produce millions of caps and generate positive EBITDA.

Negative Factors

Leadership Changes

The departure of co-CEO Rich Riley, who led the CMF commercialization effort, adds to the uncertainty.

Technology Uncertainty

The future of Origin's cellulose-based technology is uncertain, leading to a lower stock rating.

Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Micromidas, Inc., doing business as Origin Materials, produces and commercializes plant-based PET plastic. It develops a platform for turning the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while capturing carbon in the process. The company serves tire filler, carbon black, agriculture, and activated carbon markets. Micromidas, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Palantir Technologies Inc. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in West Sacramento, California with a facility in Sarnia, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Materials generates revenue through the development and commercialization of its proprietary technology that converts biomass into sustainable materials. The company earns money by partnering with businesses across various industries, such as consumer goods, automotive, and textiles, to provide them with sustainable material solutions. Additionally, Origin Materials may engage in joint ventures, licensing agreements, and collaborations to expand the reach and application of its technology. Key revenue streams include product sales, technology licensing fees, and potential government grants or subsidies aimed at promoting sustainable practices. Significant partnerships with industry leaders help to drive the adoption of its materials, contributing to its earnings.

Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Materials shows volatile revenue with low and negative profit margins, indicating profitability challenges. A strong balance sheet with low debt-to-equity and a solid equity ratio is a positive, yet substantial losses and negative cash flows constrain financial health.

Income Statement

Origin Materials shows a volatile revenue trajectory with recent declines. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is low at 9.05%, and the net profit margin is negative, reflecting significant losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating challenges in covering operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting conservative leverage usage, which is a positive sign. However, the return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses, and the equity ratio is strong at 90.13%, indicating financial stability and reliance on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow is negative, but there is a slight improvement in free cash flow growth rate from the previous period. Operating cash flow remains negative and is significantly lower than net income, reflecting cash flow challenges. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also unfavorable.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	31.28M	28.80M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	418.00K	5.21M	-1.29M	-824.00K	-479.00K
EBITDA	-71.94M	26.20M	79.86M	45.75M	-10.70M
Net Income	-83.70M	23.80M	78.57M	42.09M	-30.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	378.03M	461.83M	493.70M	510.42M	47.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	102.92M	158.26M	323.32M	444.10M	1.31M
Total Debt	9.68M	9.76M	8.71M	6.96M	9.33M
Total Liabilities	39.66M	39.33M	116.80M	206.91M	47.31M
Stockholders Equity	338.37M	422.51M	376.90M	303.51M	123.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-59.78M	-170.46M	-110.03M	-34.51M	-7.51M
Operating Cash Flow	-50.83M	-60.35M	-26.09M	-22.04M	-5.46M
Investing Cash Flow	28.56M	26.23M	88.85M	-411.64M	-2.05M
Financing Cash Flow	3.56M	146.00K	1.25M	478.95M	5.83M

Origin Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.73
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.64, above the 50-day MA of 0.53, and below the 200-day MA of 0.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ORGN.

Origin Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ASIX	65 Neutral	$569.50M	6.81	11.26%	3.13%	6.03%	5079.05%
Sector *	57 Neutral	£2.60B	5.06	-9.48%	48.68%	5.72%	-4.86%
TROX	55 Neutral	$909.57M	―	-8.44%	9.73%	4.15%	57.25%
RYAM	55 Neutral	$269.10M	―	-10.12%	―	2.20%	34.71%
FF	54 Neutral	$182.22M	11.43	-3.29%	5.77%	-33.92%	-58.53%
LXU	51 Neutral	$621.03M	―	-6.51%	―	2.60%	-1512.16%
ORGN	47 Neutral	$116.48M	―	-26.63%	―	-11.91%	-26768.00%

Origin Materials Corporate Events

Origin Materials Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 6, 2025, Origin Materials held its annual stockholders meeting virtually, with 59.89% of shares represented. Key decisions included the election of two Class I directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Origin Materials Director Pia Heidenmark Cook Steps Down

On April 28, 2025, Pia Heidenmark Cook informed Origin Materials, Inc. that she will not seek reelection as a director at the upcoming Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 6, 2025. Her decision was not due to any disagreement with the company or its board. Following her departure, the board plans to reduce its size from eight to seven directors.