Origin Materials (ORGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $77.83M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.62M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: -15.84%
• EPS Growth: -605.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 109
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 149,898,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,010,545
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,616,773
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.12
• 1Y Price Target: $0.50
• Price Target Upside: -12.28% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.50 ▼(-12.28% Downside)

Origin Materials faces substantial financial and operational challenges, reflected in its low financial performance and valuation scores. While strategic initiatives offer some future potential, current technical indicators and earnings call insights suggest caution. The stock's low price and risk of delisting further underscore the need for significant improvements.

Positive Factors

Contracts and Expansion

ORGN secures $100mn contract for PET caps, expanding its production capabilities in the US and Europe.

Financial Performance

Origin's PET-based caps and closures have potential, with plans to produce millions of caps and generate positive EBITDA.

Negative Factors

Leadership Changes

The departure of co-CEO Rich Riley, who led the CMF commercialization effort, adds to the uncertainty.

Technology Uncertainty

The future of Origin's cellulose-based technology is uncertain, leading to a lower stock rating.

Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Materials (ORGN) is a carbon-negative materials company focused on revolutionizing the production of sustainable materials. Operating primarily in the chemical and materials sectors, Origin Materials specializes in converting biomass into various carbon-negative products, including sustainable plastics, fuels, and other materials. The company's innovative technology platform aims to reduce the world's reliance on fossil resources by providing cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternatives.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Materials generates revenue through the development and commercialization of its proprietary technology that converts biomass into sustainable materials. The company earns money by partnering with businesses across various industries, such as consumer goods, automotive, and textiles, to provide them with sustainable material solutions. Additionally, Origin Materials may engage in joint ventures, licensing agreements, and collaborations to expand the reach and application of its technology. Key revenue streams include product sales, technology licensing fees, and potential government grants or subsidies aimed at promoting sustainable practices. Significant partnerships with industry leaders help to drive the adoption of its materials, contributing to its earnings.

Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Materials faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges as reflected in the negative profit margins and operating cash flow. Despite a strong equity position, the company needs to address its operational inefficiencies to improve financial health. The balance sheet remains stable with manageable debt levels, but the overall financial outlook is constrained by ongoing losses.

Income Statement

Origin Materials shows a volatile revenue trajectory with recent declines. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is low at 9.05%, and the net profit margin is negative, reflecting significant losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating challenges in covering operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting conservative leverage usage, which is a positive sign. However, the return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses, and the equity ratio is strong at 90.13%, indicating financial stability and reliance on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow is negative, but there is a slight improvement in free cash flow growth rate from the previous period. Operating cash flow remains negative and is significantly lower than net income, reflecting cash flow challenges. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also unfavorable.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.67M	31.28M	28.80M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	368.00K	418.00K	5.21M	-1.29M	-824.00K	-479.00K
EBITDA	-77.38M	-71.94M	26.20M	79.86M	45.75M	-10.70M
Net Income	-89.47M	-83.70M	23.80M	78.57M	42.09M	-30.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	348.38M	378.03M	461.83M	493.70M	510.42M	47.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.40M	102.92M	158.26M	323.32M	444.10M	1.31M
Total Debt	7.49M	9.68M	9.76M	8.71M	6.96M	9.33M
Total Liabilities	37.25M	39.66M	39.33M	116.80M	206.91M	47.31M
Stockholders Equity	311.13M	338.37M	422.51M	376.90M	303.51M	123.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-56.95M	-59.78M	-170.46M	-110.03M	-34.51M	-7.51M
Operating Cash Flow	-34.87M	-50.83M	-60.35M	-26.09M	-22.04M	-5.46M
Investing Cash Flow	25.69M	28.56M	26.23M	88.85M	-411.64M	-2.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.74M	3.56M	146.00K	1.25M	478.95M	5.83M

Origin Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.57
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.74, below the 50-day MA of 0.62, and below the 200-day MA of 0.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORGN.

Origin Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	71 Outperform	€5.69B	10.73	10.76%	2.96%	-0.05%	-24.86%
ASIX	67 Neutral	$546.55M	7.17	9.85%	3.20%	1.31%	796.76%
FF	54 Neutral	$162.51M	11.43	-13.48%	6.38%	-51.14%	-165.98%
LXU	50 Neutral	$552.47M	―	-6.51%	―	2.60%	-1506.69%
RYAM	48 Neutral	$331.65M	―	-81.36%	―	-4.90%	-458.80%
TROX	45 Neutral	$646.78M	―	-14.11%	11.24%	0.20%	-292.54%
ORGN	42 Neutral	$77.83M	―	-25.50%	―	-15.84%	-605.38%

Origin Materials Corporate Events

Origin Materials Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 6, 2025, Origin Materials held its annual stockholders meeting virtually, with 59.89% of shares represented. Key decisions included the election of two Class I directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.