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Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN)
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Origin Materials (ORGN) AI Stock Analysis

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ORGN

Origin Materials

(NASDAQ:ORGN)

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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$0.50
▼(-30.56% Downside)
Origin Materials' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability issues. Technical analysis also indicates bearish momentum. While the earnings call provided some positive insights, such as successful financing and technological advancements, concerns about cash burn and production delays remain significant.
Positive Factors
Technological Advancements
Technological advancements in PET caps enhance product durability and market competitiveness, reinforcing Origin's leadership in sustainable materials.
Secured Financing
Secured financing provides financial flexibility to support manufacturing expansion, crucial for scaling operations and meeting future demand.
Market Expansion
Market expansion into water packaging indicates strong demand and potential revenue growth, enhancing Origin's market position in sustainable materials.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
Declining revenue growth reflects challenges in market penetration and sales execution, potentially impacting long-term financial stability.
Cash Burn Rate
High cash burn rate could strain financial resources, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and sustain operations without additional funding.
Production Delays
Potential delays in production line startups may hinder capacity expansion and delay revenue realization, affecting growth projections.

Origin Materials (ORGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMicromidas, Inc., doing business as Origin Materials, produces and commercializes plant-based PET plastic. It develops a platform for turning the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while capturing carbon in the process. The company serves tire filler, carbon black, agriculture, and activated carbon markets. Micromidas, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Palantir Technologies Inc. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in West Sacramento, California with a facility in Sarnia, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrigin Materials generates revenue through the production and sale of its sustainable materials, primarily derived from its proprietary technology that converts biomass into bio-based chemicals and plastics. Key revenue streams include direct sales of these materials to manufacturers in different sectors that are looking to reduce their carbon footprint and transition to more sustainable alternatives. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships with other industry players to co-develop products or technologies, enhancing its market reach and driving sales. Long-term contracts and agreements with customers can also provide stable revenue streams, while the increasing global demand for eco-friendly products positions Origin Materials for growth in a rapidly evolving market.

Origin Materials Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 13, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted successful financing and technological advancements, positioning Origin Materials strongly in the PET cap market. However, concerns about increased burn rate and potential delays in production line startups present challenges. The settlement of litigation allows more focus on business growth.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Secured Convertible Debt Financing
Origin Materials announced a secured convertible debt facility with an initial close of $15 million, with the capacity for additional tranches up to $90 million, providing flexibility for cash management and funding growth.
Expansion in Water Packaging Market
Origin Materials expanded its PET cap production capacity and secured its first order from Berlin Packaging, indicating strong demand in the water packaging market.
Technological Advancements in PET Caps
The company made significant progress in impact resistance and multi-day heated horizontal stress testing for PET caps, strengthening its technology lead.
Settlement of Securities Litigation
Origin settled securities litigation with no finding of liability or wrongdoing, allowing the company to focus on its core business without distractions.
Negative Updates
Increased Burn Rate
The company's cash burn rate was $15 million in the third quarter, which was higher than expected, partly due to operating expenses and capital expenditures.
Potential Delays in Line Startups
The start-up for Line 7 and Line 8 could extend into Q1 2027, which is an update from the previous timeline of Q4 2026.
Uncertainty in Customer Qualification Timeline
The timeline for when Lines 2 and 4 will generate acceptable product quality for customers remains uncertain, which could impact financial projections if not resolved promptly.
Company Guidance
During the Origin Materials Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided detailed guidance on several financial and operational metrics. Origin announced a secured convertible debt facility with an initial close of $15 million, with additional capacity up to $90 million to support their manufacturing capacity build-out. They also expanded their equipment financing capacity to approximately $30 million, adding $20 million in the fourth quarter. Origin maintained its revenue guidance, expecting $20 million to $30 million in 2026 and $100 million to $200 million in 2027, with an EBITDA adjusted run rate breakeven anticipated in 2027. The company highlighted its continued progress with customer qualifications and manufacturing capacity expansion, aiming for significant advancements by the end of Q1 2026. Additionally, Origin settled securities litigation with no liability findings and affirmed its strategic review engagement with RBC Capital Markets.

Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Origin Materials faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability issues. Despite a strong equity base and low leverage, the company's inability to generate positive cash flow and returns on equity are concerning.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Origin Materials shows a declining revenue trend with a negative revenue growth rate of -12.37% in the TTM. The company is struggling with profitability, evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is very low at 1.28%, indicating challenges in cost management or pricing strategy.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.024, suggesting low leverage and financial stability. However, the negative return on equity of -27.05% indicates inefficiencies in generating returns from shareholders' equity.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
The cash flow statement reveals negative operating and free cash flows, indicating cash burn. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.63, suggesting some efficiency in converting earnings to cash, but the overall cash flow position is weak with negative growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue59.56M31.28M28.80M0.000.000.00
Gross Profit1.24M418.00K5.21M0.000.000.00
EBITDA-141.91M-71.94M26.20M79.86M45.75M-10.70M
Net Income-170.95M-83.70M23.80M78.57M42.09M-30.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets327.35M378.03M461.83M493.70M510.42M47.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments54.34M102.92M158.26M323.32M444.10M1.31M
Total Debt5.67M9.68M9.76M8.71M6.96M9.33M
Total Liabilities32.36M39.66M39.33M116.80M206.91M47.31M
Stockholders Equity294.99M338.37M422.51M376.90M303.51M123.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-136.08M-59.78M-170.46M-109.78M-34.51M-7.51M
Operating Cash Flow-75.44M-50.83M-60.35M-26.09M-22.04M-5.46M
Investing Cash Flow51.05M28.56M26.23M88.85M-411.64M-2.05M
Financing Cash Flow-15.09M3.56M146.00K1.25M478.95M5.83M

Origin Materials Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.72
Price Trends
50DMA
0.56
Negative
100DMA
0.60
Negative
200DMA
0.63
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Positive
RSI
35.79
Neutral
STOCH
15.93
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.56, above the 50-day MA of 0.56, and above the 200-day MA of 0.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORGN.

Origin Materials Risk Analysis

Origin Materials disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Materials reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Origin Materials Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
64
Neutral
$587.07M-769.81-0.13%12.49%95.48%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
54
Neutral
$135.79M-18.09%7.34%-49.82%-195.74%
53
Neutral
$386.04M7.446.62%4.48%-5.05%35.01%
45
Neutral
$374.56M-78.11%-9.75%-386.63%
44
Neutral
$69.54M-21.13%-28.47%16.83%
43
Neutral
$494.68M-18.65%11.36%-7.81%-334.15%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ORGN
Origin Materials
0.46
-0.73
-61.34%
FF
Futurefuel
3.10
-1.76
-36.21%
LXU
Lsb Industries
8.77
-0.04
-0.45%
TROX
TRONOX
2.97
-8.32
-73.69%
RYAM
Rayonier Advanced Materials
5.59
-3.32
-37.26%
ASIX
AdvanSix
14.37
-15.76
-52.31%

Origin Materials Corporate Events

Origin Materials Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Nov 14, 2025

Origin Materials, Inc., a technology company focused on sustainable materials, has reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting significant financing developments and operational progress. The company secured a convertible debt financing deal with an initial tranche of $15 million and the option to raise up to $90 million, alongside a non-binding term sheet for an additional $20 million in equipment financing. These financial moves aim to support the company’s growth and maintain a healthy cash flow.

Private Placements and Financing
Origin Materials Secures $11.18M Financing for PET Equipment
Neutral
Oct 8, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Origin Closures, LLC, a subsidiary of Origin Materials, executed a Secured Promissory Note with Starlinger & Co Gesellschaft m.b.H. to finance equipment for producing polyethylene terephthalate (PET) sheets. The Note, effective October 7, 2025, amounts to approximately $11.18 million and carries an interest rate of 10.56% per annum, with repayment scheduled semi-annually until October 2029. The Note is secured by the equipment and includes provisions for default. Additionally, Origin Materials executed a Guaranty Agreement to ensure the performance and payment obligations under the Note, effective the same date.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORGN) stock is a Hold with a $0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Materials stock, see the ORGN Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesStock Split
Origin Materials Granted Extension to Meet Nasdaq Listing
Negative
Oct 7, 2025

Origin Materials has been notified by Nasdaq that its common stock did not meet the minimum $1.00 bid price requirement for continuous listing. As of October 7, 2025, the company has been granted an additional 180 days, until April 6, 2026, to regain compliance. The company plans to monitor its stock price closely and consider a reverse stock split if necessary to meet the requirement. Failure to comply by the deadline may result in delisting, although the company can appeal such a decision.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORGN) stock is a Hold with a $0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Materials stock, see the ORGN Stock Forecast page.

Origin Materials’ Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges
Sep 1, 2025

Origin Materials’ recent earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, reflecting both optimism and challenges. The company celebrated significant milestones like the launch of PET bottle caps and strategic partnerships, which are expected to drive future growth. However, these positive developments were tempered by manufacturing delays, tariff impacts, and revised financial guidance, which pose substantial concerns.

Origin Materials Faces Hurdles in Commercializing Innovative PET Products Amid Design and Regulatory Challenges
Aug 16, 2025

Origin Materials, Inc. faces significant risks in commercializing its innovative products, such as PET closures, which have never been manufactured before. The company encounters challenges in design, production, and marketing, which could delay or prevent product development and commercialization. Issues with equipment manufacturing partners and customer qualification processes further complicate the situation, potentially impacting revenue and market share. Additionally, the need to adapt to customer infrastructure and regulatory changes adds to the complexity, posing a threat to their financial condition and operational results.

Origin Materials Reports Q2 2025 Earnings and Strategic Updates
Aug 15, 2025

Origin Materials, Inc. is a technology company focused on enabling the transition to sustainable materials, with innovations including PET caps and closures for the packaging industry. In its latest earnings report for the second quarter of 2025, Origin Materials highlighted the commercial launch of its PET bottlecaps, marking a significant milestone for the company and the packaging sector. The company also announced a strategic partnership with Berlin Packaging and a review of strategic opportunities to enhance its market presence.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 15, 2025