Origin Materials (ORGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $95.62M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.48
• Revenue Growth: -15.84%
• EPS Growth: -605.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 109
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 149,898,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,916,349
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,195,489
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.12
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.50 ▼(-30.56% Downside)

Origin Materials faces substantial financial and operational challenges, as reflected in its low financial performance score. The technical analysis provides some short-term optimism, but the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. The earnings call underscores both strategic progress and significant risks, leading to a cautious overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

The partnership with Berlin Packaging expands market reach for Origin's products, enhancing distribution and potentially increasing sales in the packaging sector.

Product Launch

The launch of PET bottle caps marks a significant milestone, positioning Origin to capture a share of the $65 billion closures packaging market, supporting long-term growth.

Cash Position

Ending the quarter with $69 million in cash and expected inflows from receivables and land sales provides financial stability to support strategic initiatives.

Negative Factors

Manufacturing Delays

Delays in manufacturing can hinder product availability and revenue realization, impacting financial performance and growth projections.

Revised Financial Guidance

Lowered revenue guidance for 2026 and 2027 indicates potential challenges in achieving sales targets, affecting long-term financial outlook.

Tariff Challenges

Increased tariffs on EU imports raise costs, potentially affecting profitability and necessitating strategic adjustments to mitigate financial impact.

Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Materials (ORGN) is a sustainable materials company focused on transforming renewable feedstocks into cost-competitive, sustainable materials that can replace petroleum-based products. Operating primarily in the sectors of advanced materials and bioplastics, Origin Materials leverages innovative technology to produce a range of products, including bio-based chemicals and plastics. The company's core offerings aim to serve various industries, such as packaging, textiles, and automotive, contributing to a circular economy and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Materials generates revenue through the production and sale of its sustainable materials, primarily derived from its proprietary technology that converts biomass into bio-based chemicals and plastics. Key revenue streams include direct sales of these materials to manufacturers in different sectors that are looking to reduce their carbon footprint and transition to more sustainable alternatives. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships with other industry players to co-develop products or technologies, enhancing its market reach and driving sales. Long-term contracts and agreements with customers can also provide stable revenue streams, while the increasing global demand for eco-friendly products positions Origin Materials for growth in a rapidly evolving market.

Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Materials faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges as reflected in the negative profit margins and operating cash flow. Despite a strong equity position, the company needs to address its operational inefficiencies to improve financial health. The balance sheet remains stable with manageable debt levels, but the overall financial outlook is constrained by ongoing losses.

Income Statement

Origin Materials shows a volatile revenue trajectory with recent declines. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is low at 9.05%, and the net profit margin is negative, reflecting significant losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating challenges in covering operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting conservative leverage usage, which is a positive sign. However, the return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses, and the equity ratio is strong at 90.13%, indicating financial stability and reliance on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow is negative, but there is a slight improvement in free cash flow growth rate from the previous period. Operating cash flow remains negative and is significantly lower than net income, reflecting cash flow challenges. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also unfavorable.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.67M	31.28M	28.80M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	368.00K	418.00K	5.21M	-1.29M	-824.00K	-479.00K
EBITDA	-77.38M	-71.94M	26.20M	79.86M	45.75M	-10.70M
Net Income	-89.47M	-83.70M	23.80M	78.57M	42.09M	-30.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	348.38M	378.03M	461.83M	493.70M	510.42M	47.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.40M	102.92M	158.26M	323.32M	444.10M	1.31M
Total Debt	7.49M	9.68M	9.76M	8.71M	6.96M	9.33M
Total Liabilities	37.25M	39.66M	39.33M	116.80M	206.91M	47.31M
Stockholders Equity	311.13M	338.37M	422.51M	376.90M	303.51M	123.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-56.95M	-59.78M	-170.46M	-110.03M	-34.51M	-7.51M
Operating Cash Flow	-34.87M	-50.83M	-60.35M	-26.09M	-22.04M	-5.46M
Investing Cash Flow	25.69M	28.56M	26.23M	88.85M	-411.64M	-2.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.74M	3.56M	146.00K	1.25M	478.95M	5.83M

Origin Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.72
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.62, above the 50-day MA of 0.57, and above the 200-day MA of 0.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORGN.

Origin Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ASIX	―	$528.03M	6.93	9.85%	3.30%	1.31%	796.76%
Sector *	―	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
LXU	―	$661.09M	-19.85	-6.51%	―	2.60%	-1506.69%
FF	―	$172.15M	-6.51	-13.48%	5.87%	-51.14%	-165.98%
RYAM	―	$470.35M	-1.06	-81.36%	―	-4.90%	-458.80%
ORGN	―	$95.62M	―	-25.50%	―	-15.84%	-605.38%
TROX	―	$577.03M	-2.30	-14.11%	11.68%	0.20%	-292.54%

Origin Materials Corporate Events

Origin Materials Secures $11.18M Financing for PET Equipment

On September 22, 2025, Origin Closures, LLC, a subsidiary of Origin Materials, executed a Secured Promissory Note with Starlinger & Co Gesellschaft m.b.H. to finance equipment for producing polyethylene terephthalate (PET) sheets. The Note, effective October 7, 2025, amounts to approximately $11.18 million and carries an interest rate of 10.56% per annum, with repayment scheduled semi-annually until October 2029. The Note is secured by the equipment and includes provisions for default. Additionally, Origin Materials executed a Guaranty Agreement to ensure the performance and payment obligations under the Note, effective the same date.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORGN) stock is a Hold with a $0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Materials stock, see the ORGN Stock Forecast page.

Origin Materials Granted Extension to Meet Nasdaq Listing

Origin Materials has been notified by Nasdaq that its common stock did not meet the minimum $1.00 bid price requirement for continuous listing. As of October 7, 2025, the company has been granted an additional 180 days, until April 6, 2026, to regain compliance. The company plans to monitor its stock price closely and consider a reverse stock split if necessary to meet the requirement. Failure to comply by the deadline may result in delisting, although the company can appeal such a decision.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORGN) stock is a Hold with a $0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Materials stock, see the ORGN Stock Forecast page.

Origin Materials’ Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

Origin Materials’ recent earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, reflecting both optimism and challenges. The company celebrated significant milestones like the launch of PET bottle caps and strategic partnerships, which are expected to drive future growth. However, these positive developments were tempered by manufacturing delays, tariff impacts, and revised financial guidance, which pose substantial concerns.

Origin Materials Faces Hurdles in Commercializing Innovative PET Products Amid Design and Regulatory Challenges

Origin Materials, Inc. faces significant risks in commercializing its innovative products, such as PET closures, which have never been manufactured before. The company encounters challenges in design, production, and marketing, which could delay or prevent product development and commercialization. Issues with equipment manufacturing partners and customer qualification processes further complicate the situation, potentially impacting revenue and market share. Additionally, the need to adapt to customer infrastructure and regulatory changes adds to the complexity, posing a threat to their financial condition and operational results.

Origin Materials Reports Q2 2025 Earnings and Strategic Updates

Origin Materials, Inc. is a technology company focused on enabling the transition to sustainable materials, with innovations including PET caps and closures for the packaging industry. In its latest earnings report for the second quarter of 2025, Origin Materials highlighted the commercial launch of its PET bottlecaps, marking a significant milestone for the company and the packaging sector. The company also announced a strategic partnership with Berlin Packaging and a review of strategic opportunities to enhance its market presence.