Lsb Industries (LXU)
NYSE:LXU
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Lsb Industries
(NYSE:LXU)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(4.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (notably a much stronger balance sheet and a 2025 profitability/FCF rebound). Technicals are supportive but overbought, while valuation (P/E ~25 with no dividend yield provided) tempers upside. Earnings-call guidance is constructive but includes meaningful near-term operational and cost headwinds (turnarounds and gas volatility).
Positive Factors
Stronger balance sheet
A materially stronger balance sheet (≈$150M cash and net leverage ~1.8x) provides lasting financial flexibility. That liquidity supports planned CapEx, turnaround funding, CCS investments and selective debt repurchases, reducing refinancing risk and enabling strategic execution through cycles.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash flow history
Historic swings in operating and free cash flow (very strong in 2022, weak in 2024, choppy in 2025) indicate inconsistent cash conversion. This variability raises the risk that funding for growth, repurchases or unexpected costs could be constrained during commodity or crop-demand downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stronger balance sheet
A materially stronger balance sheet (≈$150M cash and net leverage ~1.8x) provides lasting financial flexibility. That liquidity supports planned CapEx, turnaround funding, CCS investments and selective debt repurchases, reducing refinancing risk and enabling strategic execution through cycles.
Read all positive factors
Lsb Industries (LXU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.17B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)373.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.0
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth12.49%
EPS Growth95.48%
CountryUS
Employees583
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding71,846,840
10 Day Avg. Volume411,777
30 Day Avg. Volume373,176
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio34.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.83Price Target Upside-9.02% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$601.24M
Lsb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
LSB Industries, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of chemical products. The company provides nitrogen-based fertilizers, such as ammonia, fertilizer grade ammonium nitrate (HDAN), and urea ammonia nitrate for fertilizer and fert...
How the Company Makes Money
LSB Industries makes money by manufacturing nitrogen-based chemical products and selling them to customers in two primary end markets: (1) agriculture and (2) industrial. Its core revenue stream is the sale of ammonia and upgraded/downstream nitro...
Lsb Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes strong operational momentum and significant financial improvements (record downstream production, robust pricing, adjusted EBITDA +25% year-over-year and Q4 EBITDA +42% year-over-year), solid liquidity and a clear plan to capture additional EBITDA through reliability, efficiency and CCS. Near-term headwinds include planned turnarounds that will reduce 2026 volumes, elevated near-term natural gas and contractor costs, and working capital timing that depressed free cash flow. Management provided detailed mitigation plans (turnaround scheduling, targeted CapEx, expected cost declines later in 2026) and remains confident in the pathway to achieve higher production and ~$50 million of additional annual EBITDA, while CCS progress and balance-sheet actions strengthen the long-term outlook.Positive Updates
Record Safety Performance
12-month rolling total reportable incident rate of 0.40 incidents per 200,000 work hours as of Dec 31, 2025 (record low); 3 of 4 sites operated injury-free for the full year, representing material year-over-year improvement in safety performance.
Negative Updates
Planned Turnarounds Impacting 2026 Volumes
Planned outages (El Dorado turnaround in Q2 2026 and accelerated Pryor turnaround targeted for Q3 2026) are expected to reduce 2026 production by approximately 60,000 tons of ammonia and 50,000 tons of UAN, with Cherokee turnaround slated for Q3 2027.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Safety Performance
12-month rolling total reportable incident rate of 0.40 incidents per 200,000 work hours as of Dec 31, 2025 (record low); 3 of 4 sites operated injury-free for the full year, representing material year-over-year improvement in safety performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that, despite planned turnarounds (El Dorado in Q2 and an accelerated Pryor turnaround in Q3) that will reduce 2026 output by roughly 60,000 tons of ammonia and 50,000 tons of UAN, it expects strong near-term pricing (Q1 selling prices roughly in line with Q4 2025; Q4 UAN averaged $320/ton, +39% y/y) and a meaningful Q1 earnings uplift versus Q1 2025; first-quarter average gas cost is expected to be about $5.50/MMBtu (due to a February spike) before moderating toward ~$3/MMBtu in Q2; full-year 2026 CapEx is targeted at ~$75 million (~$55M EH&S/reliability and $20M for growth/logistics); 2025 benchmarks cited include adjusted EBITDA of $162M (+25% y/y), Q4 adjusted EBITDA $54M (+42% y/y), operating cash flow $96M, sustaining CapEx $53M, free cash flow $44M, year-end cash ≈$150M and net leverage 1.8x; the company is targeting gross ammonia production of ~875,000–880,000 tons without turnarounds, expects costs and contractor spend to decline toward the end of 2026, foresees an effective tax rate of ~25% (with limited cash tax in 2026 due to NOLs), and reiterated a clear path to capture incremental value including ~$15M of annual EBITDA from the El Dorado CCS project beginning in early 2027 and a total of ~$70M of annual EBITDA uplift over time (with ~$20M already captured and ~$50M planned).Lsb Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 615.21M | 522.40M | 593.71M | 901.71M | 556.24M |
| Gross Profit | 104.30M | 47.80M | 86.26M | 348.37M | 138.98M |
| EBITDA | 145.14M | 82.69M | 120.70M | 378.60M | 158.31M |
| Net Income | 24.61M | -19.35M | 27.92M | 230.35M | 43.55M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 1.19B | 1.30B | 1.44B | 1.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 148.47M | 184.20M | 305.93M | 394.32M | 82.14M |
| Total Debt | 489.41M | 526.22M | 619.99M | 743.28M | 559.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 653.57M | 695.55M | 779.85M | 923.95M | 672.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 519.97M | 491.64M | 518.33M | 515.87M | 460.49M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.06M | -5.72M | 69.92M | 299.82M | 52.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 95.52M | 86.58M | 137.52M | 345.65M | 87.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.36M | -53.08M | 57.40M | -369.74M | -34.69M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -53.88M | -114.30M | -157.66M | 5.71M | 12.95M |
Lsb Industries Technical Analysis
Positive
16.30
Price Trends
11.65
Positive
10.29
Positive
9.27
Positive
Market Momentum
1.33
Negative
70.94
Negative
87.07
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LXU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.31, above the 50-day MA of 11.65, and above the 200-day MA of 9.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.94 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LXU.
Lsb Industries Risk Analysis
Lsb Industries disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lsb Industries reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lsb Industries Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.17B | 25.00 | -0.13% | ― | 12.49% | 95.48% | |
64 Neutral | $646.56M | 9.44 | 6.06% | 3.81% | -5.05% | 35.01% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
53 Neutral | $1.45B | -1.41 | -29.85% | 8.27% | -7.81% | -334.15% | |
52 Neutral | $719.64M | -0.94 | -99.73% | ― | -9.75% | -386.63% | |
51 Neutral | $2.20B | -6.29 | -10.06% | 8.44% | -3.46% | -191.77% | |
46 Neutral | $398.21M | -5.96 | -5.48% | 2.71% | -0.65% | -79.35% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
LXU
Lsb Industries
16.30
9.71
147.34%
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Lsb Industries Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
LSB Industries Reports Strong 2025 Results, Provides 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, LSB Industries released a financial presentation detailing its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting significant year-over-year growth in net sales, adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share driven by improved ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
LSB Industries Updates Executive Long-Term Incentive Arrangements
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 4, 2026, LSB Industries’ compensation committee adopted a new restricted stock unit award agreement under its 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan and approved 2026 long-term incentive grants for key executives, combining time-based and...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
LSB Industries Adopts New Executive Severance and CIC Agreements
Neutral
Jan 21, 2026
On January 14, 2026, LSB Industries, Inc.’s compensation committee approved, and the company entered into, severance and change-in-control agreements with Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Damien J. Renwick and Executive ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.