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TRONOX Ltd (TROX)
NYSE:TROX
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TRONOX (TROX) AI Stock Analysis

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TROX

TRONOX

(NYSE:TROX)

Rating:40Underperform
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-20.21% Downside)
TRONOX's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance and bearish technical indicators. The company's high leverage and negative profitability metrics are major concerns. Despite a high dividend yield, the valuation remains unattractive due to net losses. The technical analysis indicates a strong downtrend, further weighing on the stock's outlook.
Positive Factors
Analyst Upgrade
Analyst upgrades Tronox to Overweight from Neutral, reflecting a belief in the company's potential for growth and recovery.
Tariff Benefits
Tronox is expected to benefit from tariffs placed on Chinese titanium dioxide exports, potentially leading to market share gains and price improvements.
Negative Factors
Demand Environment
The demand environment remains challenged owing to weak US housing, soft China construction markets, and listless demand in Europe.
Dividend Risk
The high leverage also puts the dividend at risk.
Earnings and Cash Flow Risk
High costs are moving more slowly through TROX's P&L, increasing risk to future earnings and cash flows.

TRONOX (TROX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TRONOX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTronox Holdings plc operates as a vertically integrated manufacturer of TiO2 pigment in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates titanium-bearing mineral sand mines; and engages in beneficiation and smelting operations. It offers TiO2 pigment; ultrafine specialty TiO2; zircon; feedstock; pig iron; titanium tetrachloride; and other products. The company's products are used for the manufacture of paints, coatings, plastics, and paper, as well as various other applications. Tronox Holdings plc is based in Stamford, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyTRONOX generates revenue primarily through the sale of titanium dioxide pigments, which are used to impart whiteness and opacity to products across multiple industries. The company operates a vertically integrated business model, controlling the entire supply chain from raw material extraction to final product delivery. Key revenue streams include sales of TiO2 pigments, mineral sands, and zircon products. Additionally, TRONOX benefits from strong partnerships with leading manufacturers in the coatings and plastics sectors, enhancing its market position. The company also capitalizes on price fluctuations in the titanium dioxide market, which can significantly impact its earnings based on supply and demand dynamics.

TRONOX Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -25.69%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted promising developments in cost savings and opportunities in India. However, significant challenges remain, including revenue declines, competitive pressures, and high leverage. The sentiment is cautious as the company navigates a difficult macroeconomic environment with strategic actions to manage through the downturn.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Cost Improvement Program Progress
The cost improvement program is ahead of plan, with a target to achieve $125 million to $175 million in sustainable run rate savings by the end of 2026. The company expects to exit the year with nearly double the cost savings than previously targeted.
Strong Position in India
Positive sales momentum in India due to the implementation of antidumping duties in May and the Australia-India free trade agreement. The region presents significant opportunities for growth in TiO2 sales volume.
Inventory Financing Program
Tronox entered into an inventory financing program that provides an additional $50 million of liquidity, bolstering the company's financial position.
Negative Updates
Significant Revenue and Volume Decline
Q2 revenue decreased by 11% year-over-year to $731 million, driven by lower sales volumes and unfavorable zircon pricing. Volumes were 11% lower year-over-year.
Net Loss and Restructuring Charges
Tronox reported a net loss of $84 million, including $39 million of restructuring and other charges related to the idling of the Botlek facility.
Challenged Demand Environment
The company faced weaker demand across most end markets, with heightened competitive dynamics and macroeconomic pressures, including elevated interest rates and tariff-related uncertainties.
High Leverage Ratio
The net leverage ratio at the end of June was 6.1x on a trailing 12-month basis, indicating a high level of debt relative to EBITDA.
Dividend Reduction
Tronox reduced its dividend by 60% to align with the current macro environment, providing enhanced balance sheet flexibility.
Company Guidance
During the Tronox Holdings Q2 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance for the remainder of 2025, projecting revenue to be in the range of $3 billion to $3.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA to fall between $410 million and $460 million. This outlook considers a challenging demand environment with weaker-than-expected volumes, particularly in the TiO2 and zircon segments, where sales decreased year-over-year by 11% and 20% respectively. Despite these challenges, the company plans to mitigate impacts through a cost improvement program aimed at achieving $125 million to $175 million in sustainable run rate savings by the end of 2026. Tronox also revised its capital expenditure guidance to less than $330 million, down from previous estimates, and reduced its dividend by 60% to maintain financial flexibility. The company expects free cash flow to be a use of $100 million to $170 million, with net cash interest of approximately $150 million and net cash taxes of less than $10 million for the year.

TRONOX Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TRONOX faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, negative profitability, and high leverage. However, positive operating cash flow provides some relief. Overall, financial health requires strategic improvements.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
TRONOX's income statement reveals a challenging financial environment. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a negative net income, indicating profitability issues. Gross profit margin stands at 15.74%, and net profit margin is negative, reflecting cost pressures and inefficiencies. Revenue has decreased from the previous year, highlighting growth challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also under pressure, indicating operational difficulties.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.85, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, which is concerning for shareholders. The equity ratio is 27.59%, suggesting moderate financial stability. The company needs to manage its debt levels carefully to avoid financial strain.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a negative free cash flow, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to net losses, and free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative. These metrics highlight cash management challenges, although operating cash flow remains positive, providing some relief.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.48B3.07B2.85B3.45B3.57B2.76B
Gross Profit236.18M515.00M462.00M832.00M895.00M621.00M
EBITDA245.87M525.00M473.00M714.00M840.00M619.00M
Net Income-55.18M-48.00M-316.00M497.00M286.00M969.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.19M6.04B6.13B6.31B5.99B6.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments132.00K151.00M273.00M164.00M228.00M619.00M
Total Debt443.00K2.99B2.95B2.67B2.66B3.40B
Total Liabilities4.51M4.25B4.15B3.90B3.94B4.70B
Stockholders Equity1.65M1.76B1.94B2.36B1.99B1.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-49.20M-70.00M-77.00M170.00M468.00M160.00M
Operating Cash Flow169.00M300.00M184.00M598.00M740.00M355.00M
Investing Cash Flow-207.18M-343.00M-255.00M-415.00M-269.00M-229.00M
Financing Cash Flow-7.84M-71.00M176.00M-250.00M-877.00M214.00M

TRONOX Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.76
Price Trends
50DMA
5.01
Negative
100DMA
5.21
Negative
200DMA
7.33
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.52
Positive
RSI
41.09
Neutral
STOCH
68.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TROX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.30, below the 50-day MA of 5.01, and below the 200-day MA of 7.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TROX.

TRONOX Risk Analysis

TRONOX disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TRONOX reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TRONOX Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$772.78M14.6810.28%8.60%-7.24%-7.30%
63
Neutral
$528.56M6.949.85%3.25%1.31%796.76%
58
Neutral
HK$18.21B5.33-7.29%3.72%-4.08%-48.58%
54
Neutral
$16.57B75.91-5.59%11.98%-2.82%-186.41%
50
Neutral
$1.77B-10.43%9.82%-1.56%-259.58%
45
Neutral
$4.67B6.84-25.69%1.85%-5.83%-183.85%
40
Underperform
$596.05M-14.11%11.30%0.20%-292.54%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TROX
TRONOX
3.76
-9.21
-71.01%
CE
Celanese
42.62
-85.50
-66.73%
HUN
Huntsman
10.18
-9.47
-48.19%
WLKP
Westlake Chemical PRN
21.93
1.03
4.93%
ASIX
AdvanSix
19.69
-9.15
-31.73%
DOW
Dow
23.37
-26.80
-53.42%

TRONOX Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Tronox Director Julie Beck Announces Resignation
Neutral
Aug 15, 2025

On August 15, 2025, Julie Beck, a member of the Board of Directors and Audit Committee of Tronox Holdings plc, announced her resignation effective September 30, 2025. Her departure is due to her new role as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer at MSA Safety Incorporated, requiring significant time commitments. Her resignation is not related to any disagreements with Tronox’s operations, policies, or practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (TROX) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TRONOX stock, see the TROX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 11, 2025