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TRONOX Ltd (TROX)
NYSE:TROX
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TRONOX
(NYSE:TROX)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(0.72% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (losses, negative free cash flow, and elevated leverage). Offsetting factors include improving technical momentum and a cautiously constructive earnings outlook focused on pricing, cost savings, and a path to positive 2026 free cash flow, while valuation support is mixed due to a high yield but loss-driven negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Vertical Integration
Tronox's vertically integrated model, from mineral extraction to pigment manufacture, provides durable cost and supply advantages versus tolling competitors. Controlling feedstock and processing helps protect margins through cycles, supports product availability for large customers, and underpins long-term competitive positioning across paints, coatings and zircon end markets.
Sustainable Cost Reductions
A sustained cost-improvement program delivering >$90M run-rate savings and targeting up to $125–$175M by end-2026 materially lowers structural fixed costs. These durable savings improve operating leverage, increase resilience to raw-material inflation, and meaningfully reduce the free-cash-flow hurdle to reach the company’s target of positive FCF in 2026 if execution persists.
Improved Liquidity & Operational Cash
Raised liquidity and recent Q4 free cash flow show the company can preserve cash through working-capital actions and operational discipline. A larger liquidity buffer and demonstrated ability to convert quarters into positive FCF reduce short-term refinancing risk and provide runway to execute restructuring and pricing plans that support medium-term recovery.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Elevated absolute debt and multi-year net leverage weaken financial flexibility while the business recovers. High interest and principal obligations constrain investment optionality, amplify execution risk if pricing or volumes falter, and increase reliance on achieving working-capital releases and cost savings to restore balance-sheet health in the medium term.
Negative Profitability & FCF
Material annual losses and multi-year negative free cash flow signal the business is not yet self-funding. Sustained negative earnings and FCF depress returns on invested capital, limit capacity to deleverage organically, and make operational improvements and pricing execution prerequisites for durable recovery rather than near-term cyclical improvement.
Raw-Material & Regional Headwinds
Large sulfur cost increases and structural China overcapacity reduce industry margin recovery potential and complicate pass-through. Duty rulings and trade-flow shifts can sustain lower-margin regional mix; these are enduring industry dynamics that can blunt pricing power, compress vertical-integration benefits and lengthen the time needed to restore normalized profitability.
TRONOX (TROX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.23B
Dividend Yield8.27%
Average Volume (3M)3.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.33
Revenue Growth-7.81%
EPS Growth-334.15%
CountryUS
Employees6,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.60
Shares Outstanding158,552,320
10 Day Avg. Volume4,188,469
30 Day Avg. Volume3,722,915
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)466.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.23
P/FCF Ratio-2.35K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.88
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.78Price Target Upside-2.45% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
TRONOX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTronox Holdings plc operates as a vertically integrated manufacturer of TiO2 pigment in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates titanium-bearing mineral sand mines; and engages in beneficiation and smelting operations. It offers TiO2 pigment; ultrafine specialty TiO2; zircon; feedstock; pig iron; titanium tetrachloride; and other products. The company's products are used for the manufacture of paints, coatings, plastics, and paper, as well as various other applications. Tronox Holdings plc is based in Stamford, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyTRONOX generates revenue primarily through the sale of titanium dioxide pigments, which account for a significant portion of its income. The company benefits from a vertically integrated model, allowing it to control costs and improve margins by processing its own raw materials. Key revenue streams include sales to various end markets such as paints, coatings, and plastics, which are driven by demand in construction, automotive, and consumer goods sectors. Additionally, TRONOX produces and sells zircon, contributing to its revenue diversification. Significant partnerships with major industrial players and a focus on sustainable practices enhance its market position and profitability.
TRONOX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but cautiously constructive view: operational and commercial positives (strong Q4 volumes, Q4 free cash flow, >$90M run-rate cost savings, active pricing actions, mining and rare earths progress and improved liquidity) are balanced against significant near-term financial pain (full-year net loss of $470M, negative full-year free cash flow of $281M, substantial restructuring charges, higher production costs from temporary cash-preservation actions, and notable debt levels). Management is optimistic that implemented price increases, sustained cost savings, footprint rationalization and working-capital discipline will translate into positive free cash flow and improved earnings in 2026, but execution risk and market/regulatory volatility (e.g., duty rulings, China overcapacity, commodity cost pressure) keep the outlook cautious.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Safety Improvement
Delivered best safety performance in more than a decade with the lowest overall injury rate in the period, highlighting disciplined site execution and workforce focus on safety.
Stronger-than-expected Q4 Volumes (TiO2 & Zircon)
TiO2 volumes in Q4 reached the highest point of the year and increased 9% sequentially; zircon volumes increased 42% sequentially, driving sequential revenue increases of +5% for TiO2 and +32% for zircon.
Cash Preservation and Q4 Free Cash Flow
Maintained disciplined cash and inventory management; generated $53 million of free cash flow in Q4 despite a challenging environment and targeted working capital initiatives that produced a $133 million working capital source in Q4 (excluding restructuring payments).
Sustainable Cost Improvement Progress
Exited 2025 with more than $90 million of run-rate savings (three times the original target) from the cost improvement program, tracking >2,000 initiatives with >500 delivering savings; on pace for the high end of $125–$175 million run-rate target by exit 2026.
Liquidity & Balance Sheet Actions
Liquidity increased to $674 million as of Dec 31, 2025 (including $199 million cash); executed opportunistic $400 million senior secured note offering in September; weighted average interest rate ~6% and ~77% of interest rates fixed through 2028; next major debt maturity not until 2029.
Operational and Portfolio Actions to Improve Long-Term Cost Structure
Announced closures of Botlek and Fuzhou pigment plants to streamline footprint and improve long-term cost position; expected run-rate fixed cost savings of ~ $30M (Botlek) and ~$15M (Fuzhou) annually.
Commercial Momentum and Pricing Initiatives
Company implemented TiO2 price increases beginning Q1 2026 and expects TiO2 pricing to be up ~2%–4% sequentially (mix + announced increases); zircon pricing stabilizing in Q1 with announced increases expected to be implemented in Q2.
Mining and Rare Earths Progress
Commenced mining at Fairbreeze and began commissioning of East OFS; advanced rare earths strategy with conditional, nonbinding financing discussions (EFA and Ex-Im Bank) for a cracking and leaching facility in Australia and progress on a definitive feasibility study.
2026 Guidance and Cash Outlook
Guided Q1 2026 EBITDA of $55M–$65M, CapEx expected to moderate to ~$260M in 2026, and management expects positive free cash flow for full-year 2026 assuming realized pricing and working capital improvements.
Negative Updates
Large Full-Year Losses and Negative Adjusted EPS
Full-year 2025: revenue $2.9 billion with loss from operations $253 million and net loss attributable to Tronox of $470 million; adjusted diluted EPS was a loss of $1.50.
Significant Restructuring and Charges
Results include $233 million of restructuring and other charges, net of taxes, primarily related to Botlek and Fuzhou closures; full-year free cash flow was a use of $281 million including $341 million of capital expenditures.
Weak Adjusted EBITDA Performance
Full-year adjusted EBITDA $336 million (11.6% margin). Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $57 million, representing a 56% year-over-year decline and a 23% sequential decline, driven by unfavorable pricing/mix, higher production costs and freight.
Pricing and Mix Headwinds
TiO2 prices were lower in the quarter (price -2% sequentially, mix an additional -2%, totalling -4% including mix); zircon price was down 7% sequentially (or -10% including mix), contributing to profit pressure.
Higher Production Costs from Cash Actions
Production costs were higher by $39 million year-over-year due to deliberate cash-preservation actions (bringing forward maintenance, idling assets, lower operating rates) that caused unfavorable fixed cost absorption and higher idle/LCM charges.
Material Debt and Leverage
Total debt $3.2 billion and net debt $3.0 billion at year-end; while interest rate hedges fix ~77% of rates, leverage level and interest expense (net cash interest ~ $185M assumption for 2026) remain notable financial constraints.
Short-Term Cash Seasonality and Q1 Pressure
Q1 is typically a seasonal cash use quarter; management expects a significant use in Q1 2026 (similar to past years) and highlighted a ~$10 million FX headwind in Q1 vs Q4; full-year positive FCF relies on working capital source >$100M and realized cost/pricing actions.
Market and Regional Challenges (China/Asia)
Temporary court ruling paused collection of antidumping duties in late December, causing customers in India to shift volumes back to China and creating short-term volatility and lower-margin regional mix in Q1; China market described as weak with overcapacity and unsustainable pricing.
Commodity Cost Pressures (Sulfur)
Raw material cost pressure: sulfur prices cited as up ~70% since mid-2025 (and management also referenced much larger YoY increases), a significant headwind for sulfate-route producers that reduces ability to restore industry-wide margins without broad pass-through.
Near-Term Operational Trade-offs Reducing EBITDA
Decisions to keep certain furnaces/mines down and reduce production to prioritize cash and working capital improved liquidity but reduced near-term EBITDA and lowered the realized vertical integration feedstock advantage (previously cited $200–$400/ton).
Company Guidance
Tronox guided that TiO2 volumes should be relatively flat sequentially off a very strong Q4 (growth in all regions except Asia) with TiO2 pricing expected up ~2–4% sequentially and zircon volumes to mirror Q4 (zircon pricing stabilized with announced increases expected to be implemented in Q2); Q1 EBITDA is guided to $55–65 million. For full-year cash assumptions they project net cash interest of ~ $185 million, net cash taxes of < $10 million, CapEx of ~ $260 million (vs. $341 million in 2025), and working capital to be a source of cash in excess of $100 million, supporting their expectation of positive free cash flow in 2026. They noted a ~$10 million Q1 FX headwind versus Q4, exit-2025 sustainable cost improvement run-rate of > $90 million (targeting the high end of $125–175 million by end-2026 with >2,000 initiatives tracked), liquidity of $674 million (including $199 million cash), total debt $3.2 billion / net debt $3.0 billion, and a continued objective to target long-term net leverage <3x.TRONOX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are pressured: income statement profitability deteriorated into losses with sharply negative EBIT/EBITDA and compressed margins, cash flow weakened with negative free cash flow in recent periods, and leverage remains elevated while returns turned negative—limiting flexibility until earnings and FCF stabilize.Income Statement
Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully versus the 2020–2022 period: net income swung from healthy profits (2020–2022) to losses in 2023–2024, and the latest annual period shows deeply negative operating results (negative EBIT/EBITDA). Margins also compressed materially from prior peaks (gross margin down from ~24–25% in 2021–2022 to ~17% in 2023–2024, and net margin negative in 2023–2024). Revenue has been volatile—declining in 2022–2023, modestly rebounding in 2024—while earnings did not recover, highlighting weak operating leverage and/or cost pressure.34
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is elevated for the period where the core business was still operating at scale (debt-to-equity around ~1.1–2.0 from 2020–2024, ~1.7 in 2024), which reduces financial flexibility when profits are under pressure. Equity remains sizable in absolute terms, but returns on equity turned negative in 2023–2024, signaling that the capital base is not currently producing shareholder earnings. The latest annual snapshot shows a sharp drop in reported debt and revenue alongside negative profitability, which raises questions about comparability and underscores balance-sheet and operating uncertainty rather than clear strengthening.46
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened: operating cash flow fell from strong levels in 2021–2022 to materially lower figures in 2023–2024, and free cash flow has been negative in 2023–2024 (and further negative in the latest annual period), indicating the business is not currently self-funding after investment needs. While operating cash flow remains positive recently, it covers only a modest share of reported earnings losses, suggesting working-capital moves and/or non-cash items are not enough to offset the profitability downturn. Overall, cash flow resilience looks limited until margins and earnings stabilize.38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.90B | 3.07B | 2.85B | 3.45B | 3.57B |
| Gross Profit | 269.00M | 515.00M | 462.00M | 832.00M | 895.00M |
| EBITDA | 281.00M | 525.00M | 473.00M | 714.00M | 840.00M |
| Net Income | -470.00M | -48.00M | -316.00M | 497.00M | 286.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.22M | 6.04B | 6.13B | 6.31B | 5.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 199.00K | 151.00M | 273.00M | 164.00M | 228.00M |
| Total Debt | 260.00K | 2.99B | 2.95B | 2.67B | 2.66B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.77M | 4.25B | 4.15B | 3.90B | 3.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.42M | 1.76B | 1.94B | 2.36B | 1.99B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -281.00K | -70.00M | -77.00M | 170.00M | 468.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 60.00K | 300.00M | 184.00M | 598.00M | 740.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -328.00K | -343.00M | -255.00M | -415.00M | -269.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 321.00K | -71.00M | 176.00M | -250.00M | -877.00M |
TRONOX Technical Analysis
Positive
6.95
Price Trends
5.73
Positive
4.66
Positive
4.72
Positive
Market Momentum
0.57
Positive
52.15
Neutral
32.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TROX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.10, above the 50-day MA of 5.73, and above the 200-day MA of 4.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TROX.
TRONOX Risk Analysis
TRONOX disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TRONOX reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TRONOX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $752.15M | 15.30 | 9.61% | 9.90% | -0.82% | -20.35% | |
64 Neutral | $478.45M | 9.26 | 6.62% | 3.81% | -5.05% | 35.01% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $700.74M | -942.45 | -0.13% | ― | 12.49% | 95.48% | |
57 Neutral | $2.33B | -7.97 | -9.63% | 8.44% | -3.46% | -191.77% | |
51 Neutral | $1.23B | -2.34 | -29.57% | 8.27% | -7.81% | -334.15% | |
47 Neutral | $1.45B | -1.72 | ― | ― | -10.68% | 36.31% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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TRONOX Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividends
Tronox Announces Director Exit and Maintains Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Tronox Holdings said director Lucrece Foufopoulos-De Ridder will not seek re-election at the 2026 annual meeting when her term expires, citing time commitments from other public company board roles and no disagreements with Tronox’s operations or governance. On the same day, the Board declared a first-quarter 2026 cash dividend of $0.05 per share, payable April 2, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 23, 2026, maintaining capital returns to investors while signaling governance continuity despite the upcoming board change.
The board transition comes as Tronox continues to emphasize its integrated titanium dioxide platform and global footprint, and the dividend announcement underscores a commitment to shareholder payouts even as board composition evolves. The combination of a stable dividend and an orderly, non-contentious director departure suggests limited disruption to the company’s strategic direction or stakeholder confidence.
The most recent analyst rating on (TROX) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TRONOX stock, see the TROX Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.