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TRONOX Ltd (TROX)
NYSE:TROX
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TRONOX (TROX) AI Stock Analysis

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TROX

TRONOX

(NYSE:TROX)

Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-10.71% Downside)
Tronox's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance and bearish technical indicators. While the company is taking steps to improve cost efficiency and liquidity, significant challenges remain, including declining revenues and high leverage. The high dividend yield offers some appeal, but the negative P/E ratio and market conditions pose substantial risks.
Positive Factors
Cost Opportunities
Tronox has cost/benefit opportunities totaling about $230 million that could reduce earnings risk and potentially lead to earnings growth.
Stock Upgrade
Analyst upgrades Tronox to Overweight from Neutral, reflecting a belief in the company's potential for growth and recovery.
Tariff Benefits
Tronox is expected to benefit from tariffs placed on Chinese titanium dioxide exports, potentially leading to market share gains and price improvements.
Negative Factors
Dividend Risk
High leverage of the company puts the dividend at risk.
Financial Performance
Despite efforts to improve, the company's net debt to EBITDA ratio is expected to increase, reflecting financial strain.
Market Demand Challenges
The demand environment remains challenged owing to weak US housing, soft China construction markets, and listless demand in Europe.

TRONOX (TROX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TRONOX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTronox Holdings plc operates as a vertically integrated manufacturer of TiO2 pigment in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates titanium-bearing mineral sand mines; and engages in beneficiation and smelting operations. It offers TiO2 pigment; ultrafine specialty TiO2; zircon; feedstock; pig iron; titanium tetrachloride; and other products. The company's products are used for the manufacture of paints, coatings, plastics, and paper, as well as various other applications. Tronox Holdings plc is based in Stamford, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyTRONOX generates revenue primarily through the sale of titanium dioxide pigments, which are used to impart whiteness and opacity to products across multiple industries. The company operates a vertically integrated business model, controlling the entire supply chain from raw material extraction to final product delivery. Key revenue streams include sales of TiO2 pigments, mineral sands, and zircon products. Additionally, TRONOX benefits from strong partnerships with leading manufacturers in the coatings and plastics sectors, enhancing its market position. The company also capitalizes on price fluctuations in the titanium dioxide market, which can significantly impact its earnings based on supply and demand dynamics.

TRONOX Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlights Tronox's proactive measures in cost improvement and liquidity management, with strategic opportunities in India. However, these positives are overshadowed by significant challenges, including declining revenues, weaker demand across markets, and ongoing macroeconomic pressures.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Cost Improvement Program Progress
The cost improvement program is progressing ahead of plan, with $125 million to $175 million in sustainable run rate savings expected by the end of 2026.
Strong Liquidity Position
Tronox ended the quarter with liquidity of $397 million, including $132 million in cash and cash equivalents, and entered an inventory financing program for an additional $50 million.
Sales Growth in India
Tronox saw early sales momentum in India following the implementation of duties against Chinese imports, presenting a significant opportunity for sales volume growth.
Negative Updates
Decline in Revenue and Net Loss
Revenue decreased by 11% versus the prior year second quarter, driven by lower sales volumes and unfavorable zircon pricing. The net loss was $84 million, including $39 million of restructuring and other charges.
Weaker Demand Across End Markets
Volumes in Q2 were 2% lower sequentially and 11% lower year-over-year, reflecting weaker-than-usual seasonality and heightened competitive dynamics.
Challenges in Brazil
Delays in Brazil's antidumping investigation enabled Chinese producers to exploit the gap between the expiration of provisional duties and the implementation of final duties.
High Net Leverage Ratio
Net leverage ratio at the end of June was 6.1x on a trailing 12-month basis, with total debt of $3.1 billion.
Company Guidance
During the Tronox Holdings Q2 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic environment. Tronox now expects 2025 revenue to range between $3 billion and $3.1 billion, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated between $410 million and $460 million. This forecast considers weaker pigment and zircon volumes due to revised global GDP estimates and customer feedback suggesting a softer second half. However, Tronox is optimistic about growth opportunities in India, aided by antidumping duties, and is actively managing costs through a disciplined strategy, aiming for $125 million to $175 million in sustainable run rate savings by the end of 2026. The company also adjusted its dividend by 60% and reduced capital expenditures to less than $330 million for the year to bolster financial flexibility.

TRONOX Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tronox faces significant financial challenges, marked by negative profitability metrics, high leverage, and declining operational cash flow. The company needs to address these issues to improve financial health and investor confidence in the volatile chemicals industry.
Income Statement
40
Negative
The company shows a negative net profit margin due to recurring net losses, which is a major concern. The gross profit margin and EBIT margin have been declining, indicating reduced operational efficiency. Revenue growth is inconsistent and has been decreasing in recent years.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The debt-to-equity ratio is high, indicating significant leverage, which poses financial risk. The equity ratio is moderate, but the declining stockholders' equity suggests weakening financial stability. Return on equity has been negative due to net losses.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Operating cash flow is positive but not sufficient to cover capital expenditures, resulting in negative free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, highlighting cash management issues. Cash flow from operations is declining, reducing financial flexibility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.95B3.07B2.85B3.45B3.57B2.76B
Gross Profit405.00M515.00M462.00M832.00M895.00M621.00M
EBITDA296.00M525.00M473.00M714.00M840.00M619.00M
Net Income-250.00M-48.00M-316.00M497.00M286.00M969.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.19M6.04B6.13B6.31B5.99B6.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments132.00K151.00M273.00M164.00M228.00M619.00M
Total Debt443.00K2.99B2.95B2.67B2.66B3.40B
Total Liabilities4.51M4.25B4.15B3.90B3.94B4.70B
Stockholders Equity1.65M1.76B1.94B2.36B1.99B1.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-49.20M-70.00M-77.00M170.00M468.00M160.00M
Operating Cash Flow169.00M300.00M184.00M598.00M740.00M355.00M
Investing Cash Flow-383.00M-343.00M-255.00M-415.00M-269.00M-229.00M
Financing Cash Flow149.00M-71.00M176.00M-250.00M-877.00M214.00M

TRONOX Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price4.48
Price Trends
50DMA
4.56
Negative
100DMA
4.92
Negative
200DMA
6.79
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Negative
RSI
56.71
Neutral
STOCH
75.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TROX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.92, below the 50-day MA of 4.56, and below the 200-day MA of 6.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TROX.

TRONOX Risk Analysis

TRONOX disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TRONOX reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TRONOX Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$564.80M7.299.85%3.02%1.31%796.76%
71
Outperform
$769.96M14.7110.28%8.63%-7.24%-7.30%
62
Neutral
$10.28B6.210.76%2.84%3.10%-36.03%
59
Neutral
$1.92B-10.43%9.07%-1.56%-259.58%
51
Neutral
$16.95B75.91-5.59%10.00%-2.82%-186.41%
47
Neutral
$5.08B6.84-25.69%1.70%-5.83%-183.85%
45
Neutral
$662.63M-14.11%9.49%0.20%-292.54%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TROX
TRONOX
4.48
-7.10
-61.31%
CE
Celanese
48.73
-70.44
-59.11%
HUN
Huntsman
11.23
-9.00
-44.49%
WLKP
Westlake Chemical PRN
21.85
1.33
6.48%
ASIX
AdvanSix
21.19
-5.09
-19.37%
DOW
Dow Inc
24.50
-22.60
-47.98%

TRONOX Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Tronox Director Julie Beck Announces Resignation
Neutral
Aug 15, 2025

On August 15, 2025, Julie Beck, a member of the Board of Directors and Audit Committee of Tronox Holdings plc, announced her resignation effective September 30, 2025. Her departure is due to her new role as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer at MSA Safety Incorporated, requiring significant time commitments. Her resignation is not related to any disagreements with Tronox’s operations, policies, or practices.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025