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TRONOX (TROX) AI Stock Analysis

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TROX

TRONOX

(NYSE:TROX)

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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-5.36% Downside)
Tronox's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance and bearish technical indicators. The company's high leverage and negative profitability metrics are significant concerns. Despite some positive developments in cost improvements and antidumping measures, market uncertainties and revenue declines weigh heavily on the outlook.
Positive Factors
Cost Improvement Program
The cost improvement program enhances operational efficiency, leading to significant savings and improved margins, strengthening long-term competitiveness.
Antidumping Measures
Antidumping measures reduce competition from low-cost imports, potentially increasing market share and stabilizing prices, benefiting long-term revenue.
Strengthened Liquidity
Improved liquidity provides financial flexibility to navigate market challenges and invest in growth opportunities, supporting long-term stability.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and impacting long-term financial health.
Revenue Decline
Declining revenue indicates challenges in maintaining market position and demand, which could hinder long-term growth and profitability.
Net Loss and EBITDA Decline
Ongoing losses and declining EBITDA suggest operational inefficiencies and market pressures, impacting long-term financial performance.

TRONOX (TROX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TRONOX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTRONOX Holdings plc is a global leader in the production of titanium dioxide (TiO2) pigments and operates in the minerals and chemicals sectors. The company specializes in the mining, processing, and marketing of titanium minerals, zircon, and other related products. TRONOX serves a diverse range of industries, including coatings, plastics, paper, and cosmetics, providing essential materials that enhance the quality and performance of various consumer goods.
How the Company Makes MoneyTRONOX generates revenue primarily through the sale of titanium dioxide pigments, which are used to impart whiteness and opacity to products across multiple industries. The company operates a vertically integrated business model, controlling the entire supply chain from raw material extraction to final product delivery. Key revenue streams include sales of TiO2 pigments, mineral sands, and zircon products. Additionally, TRONOX benefits from strong partnerships with leading manufacturers in the coatings and plastics sectors, enhancing its market position. The company also capitalizes on price fluctuations in the titanium dioxide market, which can significantly impact its earnings based on supply and demand dynamics.

TRONOX Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted several positive developments, including successful antidumping measures and a strong cost improvement program. However, these were overshadowed by significant revenue declines, net losses, and challenging market conditions. While there are opportunities for future growth, particularly in rare earths, current financial performance and market uncertainties create a cautious outlook.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Antidumping Measures
Tronox reported positive developments in antidumping measures, with Brazil and Saudi Arabia finalizing duties, which are expected to improve market penetration and growth. The implementation of antidumping duties has reduced Chinese exports to the EU, Brazil, and India, and is expected to do the same in Saudi Arabia.
Cost Improvement Program Ahead of Schedule
Tronox's cost improvement program is on track to deliver over $60 million in annualized savings by the end of 2025, with a target of $125 million to $175 million by the end of 2026.
Strengthened Liquidity
Tronox raised $400 million in senior secured notes, boosting available liquidity to $664 million as of September 30, 2025.
Opportunities in Rare Earths
Tronox sees opportunities in rare earths due to its mining operations containing substantial amounts of monazite. The company has taken a 5% equity interest in Lion Rock Minerals, a mineral exploration company.
Negative Updates
Significant Revenue Decline
The company's revenue decreased by 13% year-over-year to $699 million, driven by lower sales volumes and unfavorable pricing for TiO2 and zircon.
Net Loss and EBITDA Decline
Tronox reported a net loss attributable to the company of $99 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $74 million, representing a 48% decline year-over-year.
Challenging Market Conditions
Ongoing challenges included weaker-than-forecasted demand, heightened competitive dynamics, and unexpected destocking. The zircon market, particularly in China, faced pricing and volume pressures.
Uncertain Resolution in India
Tronox encountered an unexpected hurdle when a state court in India temporarily stayed antidumping duties, impacting the company's market strategy.
Company Guidance
During the Tronox Holdings plc Q3 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance shaped by weaker-than-forecasted demand, competitive pressures, and destocking, impacting both TiO2 and zircon markets. Despite these challenges, Tronox is ahead of schedule in its cost improvement program, expecting to deliver over $60 million in annualized savings by the end of 2025 and aiming for $125 million to $175 million by the end of 2026. The company temporarily idled facilities, including its Fuzhou pigment plant, to align production with market conditions and anticipates a cash benefit of $25 million to $30 million in Q4 2025. Although Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA are expected to remain flat compared to Q3, Tronox has strengthened its balance sheet by raising $400 million in senior secured notes and expects positive free cash flow in Q4 and 2026, driven by improved market dynamics and ongoing cost-reduction efforts.

TRONOX Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tronox faces significant financial challenges, including negative profitability metrics, high leverage, and declining operational cash flow. The company's financial health is concerning, with negative net profit margins and a high debt-to-equity ratio.
Income Statement
40
Negative
The company shows a negative net profit margin due to recurring net losses, which is a major concern. The gross profit margin and EBIT margin have been declining, indicating reduced operational efficiency. Revenue growth is inconsistent and has been decreasing in recent years.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The debt-to-equity ratio is high, indicating significant leverage, which poses financial risk. The equity ratio is moderate, but the declining stockholders' equity suggests weakening financial stability. Return on equity has been negative due to net losses.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Operating cash flow is positive but not sufficient to cover capital expenditures, resulting in negative free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, highlighting cash management issues. Cash flow from operations is declining, reducing financial flexibility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.15B3.07B2.85B3.45B3.57B2.76B
Gross Profit295.05M515.00M462.00M832.00M895.00M621.00M
EBITDA176.96M525.00M473.00M714.00M840.00M619.00M
Net Income-225.10M-48.00M-316.00M497.00M286.00M969.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.30M6.04B6.13B6.31B5.99B6.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments185.00K151.00M273.00M164.00M228.00M619.00M
Total Debt271.00K2.99B2.95B2.67B2.66B3.40B
Total Liabilities4.71M4.25B4.15B3.90B3.94B4.70B
Stockholders Equity1.56M1.76B1.94B2.36B1.99B1.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-228.14M-70.00M-77.00M170.00M468.00M160.00M
Operating Cash Flow81.94M300.00M184.00M598.00M740.00M355.00M
Investing Cash Flow-117.25M-343.00M-255.00M-415.00M-269.00M-229.00M
Financing Cash Flow26.34M-71.00M176.00M-250.00M-877.00M214.00M

TRONOX Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.17
Price Trends
50DMA
4.05
Negative
100DMA
4.37
Negative
200DMA
5.45
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.21
Positive
RSI
34.04
Neutral
STOCH
14.16
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TROX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.58, below the 50-day MA of 4.05, and below the 200-day MA of 5.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TROX.

TRONOX Risk Analysis

TRONOX disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TRONOX reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TRONOX Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$652.05M13.269.61%9.76%-0.82%-20.35%
66
Neutral
$498.76M6.549.85%3.39%1.31%796.76%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
$587.07M-769.81-0.13%12.49%95.48%
52
Neutral
$1.34B-10.43%13.48%-1.56%-259.58%
43
Neutral
$505.69M-18.65%12.14%-7.81%-334.15%
40
Underperform
$1.03B-3.33%44.37%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TROX
TRONOX
3.17
-8.59
-73.04%
BAK
Braskem SA
2.41
-3.41
-58.59%
HUN
Huntsman
7.42
-12.24
-62.26%
LXU
Lsb Industries
8.36
-0.58
-6.49%
WLKP
Westlake Chemical PRN
18.69
-2.06
-9.93%
ASIX
AdvanSix
18.15
-12.14
-40.08%

TRONOX Corporate Events

Tronox Faces Challenges in Q3 2025, Eyes Recovery
Nov 7, 2025

Tronox Holdings plc is a leading global producer of titanium dioxide products and zircon, known for its integrated production model and extensive mining operations across six continents. The company recently reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a challenging period marked by decreased revenue and a net loss. Despite these setbacks, Tronox is implementing strategic measures to improve its financial standing.

Dividends
Tronox Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend Announcement
Positive
Oct 29, 2025

On October 29, 2025, Tronox Holdings plc announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share. This dividend is scheduled to be paid on January 6, 2026, to shareholders who are recorded by the close of business on November 10, 2025. This announcement reflects Tronox’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may enhance its attractiveness to investors, reinforcing its position in the titanium dioxide industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TROX) stock is a Hold with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TRONOX stock, see the TROX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Tronox Closes $400 Million Senior Secured Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 26, 2025

On September 26, 2025, Tronox Incorporated, a subsidiary of Tronox Holdings plc, successfully closed an offering of $400 million in senior secured notes due 2030. This financial maneuver is designed to strengthen the company’s capital structure, with the notes being guaranteed by Tronox and its restricted subsidiaries. The issuance of these notes, which are not registered under the Securities Act, provides Tronox with strategic financial flexibility, allowing for potential redemptions and adjustments based on market conditions and company performance. This move may impact Tronox’s operational strategies and its positioning within the industry, offering stakeholders insights into the company’s financial planning and risk management.

The most recent analyst rating on (TROX) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TRONOX stock, see the TROX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Tronox Announces Senior Secured Notes Offering
Neutral
Sep 15, 2025

On September 15, 2025, Tronox Incorporated, a subsidiary of Tronox Holdings plc, announced an offering of senior secured notes due in 2030. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repay existing borrowings under the company’s credit facilities and cover related fees and expenses, with any remaining funds used for general corporate purposes. The notes will be offered to qualified institutional buyers and certain offshore investors, but will not be registered under the Securities Act, limiting their sale in the United States. This move is part of Tronox’s financial strategy to manage its debt and optimize its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (TROX) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TRONOX stock, see the TROX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Tronox Director Julie Beck Announces Resignation
Neutral
Aug 15, 2025

On August 15, 2025, Julie Beck, a member of the Board of Directors and Audit Committee of Tronox Holdings plc, announced her resignation effective September 30, 2025. Her departure is due to her new role as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer at MSA Safety Incorporated, requiring significant time commitments. Her resignation is not related to any disagreements with Tronox’s operations, policies, or practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (TROX) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TRONOX stock, see the TROX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025