Olin (OLN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.49B
• Dividend Yield: 3.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: -4.29%
• EPS Growth: -74.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,676
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.89
• Shares Outstanding: 115,083,115
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,522,762
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,979,948
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $28.29
• Price Target Upside: 30.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

Olin Corporation's overall stock score reflects significant financial pressures, including declining revenues and cash flow issues. Despite strategic initiatives and a promising acquisition, market challenges and high valuation metrics weigh on the stock. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while the earnings call provides a mix of positive strategic directions and ongoing market challenges.

Positive Factors

Cost-Saving Measures

Self-help/cost-save actions, including completed contract improvements with Dow, account for $250M+ of improvement.

Tariffs Impact

A proposed ~40% tariff on European imports from China could lift Olin's EBITDA by at least $30mn.

Valuation and Cash Flow

Valuation is highly attractive at 5.1x 2025E EBITDA and 7.3x 2024’s depressed EBITDA, with the best free cash flow yield in commodity coverage.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

Significant negative earnings revisions are likely with 1Q25 EBITDA guidance well below expectations.

Economic Challenges

Challenges OLN faces due to the difficult economic conditions in the EU and Asia are not offset by improvements in US markets.

Market Disruptions

Closure of the Dow PO facility may cause disruptions in the chloralkali markets.

Olin Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Olin Corporation is a leading vertically-integrated global manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and ammunition. Founded in 1892 and headquartered in Clayton, Missouri, Olin operates through three primary segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy, and Winchester. The company's chemical division produces a range of industrial chemicals such as chlorine, caustic soda, and epoxy resins, while its Winchester division is one of the largest ammunition manufacturers in the United States, serving both commercial and military markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Olin Corporation generates revenue through its three main business segments. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment, the largest revenue contributor, produces and sells chlorine, caustic soda, and related chemicals used in a wide array of industries, from water treatment to pharmaceuticals. The Epoxy segment manufactures epoxy resins, which are critical in coatings, adhesives, and composite materials, serving industries like construction, automotive, and electronics. Lastly, the Winchester segment earns revenue through the production and sale of ammunition, supplying law enforcement agencies, military contracts, and the recreational shooting market. Olin's earnings are significantly influenced by the demand for its chemicals and ammunition, global economic conditions, and its ability to manage costs effectively. Strategic partnerships and long-term contracts, particularly in the chemical and military sectors, also play a critical role in sustaining Olin's revenue streams.

Olin Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Olin's financial performance is under pressure, with declining revenues, shrinking profit margins, and negative cash flow. Despite improved leverage, the company's ability to generate profits and cash flow has deteriorated, indicating potential operational challenges.

Income Statement

Olin's income statement highlights a significant drop in total revenue from 2022 to 2024, with a 30.3% decline over this period. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 100%, which is unusual and indicates a potential data anomaly since gross profit equals total revenue. Net profit margin fell sharply from 14.1% in 2022 to 1.7% in 2024, indicating declining profitability. This trend suggests challenges in maintaining revenue and profit levels, potentially due to market or operational issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.53 in 2024, down from 1.66 in 2020, indicating improved leverage management. However, the equity ratio dropped from 30.7% in 2020 to 27.1% in 2024, suggesting a slight increase in leverage relative to assets. Return on equity decreased from 52.2% in 2022 to 5.3% in 2024, reflecting reduced profitability on shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Olin's cash flow statement reveals a concerning decline in free cash flow from $738.3 million in 2023 to -$195.1 million in 2024, indicating negative free cash flow generation. The absence of operating cash flow in 2024 raises red flags about the company's ability to generate cash from operations. Overall, the cash flow position has weakened significantly, posing liquidity risks.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
6.54B	6.83B	9.38B	8.91B	5.76B
	Gross Profit
737.50M	1.16B	2.18B	2.29B	383.40M
	EBIT
296.50M	712.10M	1.78B	1.85B	-18.50M
	EBITDA
844.30M	1.30B	2.44B	2.32B	-142.50M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
108.60M	460.20M	1.33B	1.30B	-969.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
175.60M	170.30M	194.00M	180.50M	189.70M
	Total Assets
7.58B	7.71B	8.04B	8.52B	8.27B
	Total Debt
3.15B	3.02B	2.94B	3.16B	4.23B
	Net Debt
2.97B	2.85B	2.75B	2.98B	4.04B
	Total Liabilities
5.52B	5.44B	5.50B	5.87B	6.82B
	Stockholders Equity
2.06B	2.23B	2.54B	2.65B	1.45B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
308.10M	738.30M	1.69B	1.54B	119.50M
	Operating Cash Flow
503.20M	974.30M	1.92B	1.74B	418.40M
	Investing Cash Flow
-283.70M	-340.80M	-259.70M	-197.40M	-835.70M
	Financing Cash Flow
-212.60M	-656.90M	-1.65B	-1.55B	385.60M

Olin Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.65
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.09, below the 50-day MA of 23.43, and below the 200-day MA of 35.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OLN.

Olin Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWKN	77 Outperform	$2.55B	31.09	19.24%	0.56%	3.01%	12.36%
IOSP	67 Neutral	$2.26B	63.52	3.02%	1.73%	-5.31%	-74.42%
AVNT	61 Neutral	$3.06B	18.14	7.32%	3.17%	3.11%	123.46%
OLN	58 Neutral	$2.49B	23.82	5.10%	3.70%	-4.29%	-74.85%
Sector *	49 Neutral	$1.93B	-1.47	-21.02%	3.74%	0.80%	-29.57%
SSL	47 Neutral	$2.20B	―	-28.05%	2.00%	-4.31%	-1421.83%
ASH	45 Neutral	$2.57B	21.03	0.18%	2.98%	-4.35%	-115.63%

Olin Corporate Events

Olin Corporation Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

On May 1, 2025, Olin Corporation held its annual meeting of shareholders, where the board approved a reduction in its size from ten to nine directors following the completion of Mr. C. Robert Bunch’s term. Shareholders elected nine directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025. Olin also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share, marking its 394th consecutive quarterly dividend. In its first quarter 2025 financial results, Olin reported a net income of $1.4 million, a significant decrease from the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA of $185.6 million. The company experienced higher chlorine demand, leading to a delay in planned maintenance, and announced cost-saving measures and reduced capital spending. Despite challenges in the epoxy market and Winchester sales, Olin remains focused on a value-first approach and expects stable performance in its chemical businesses.

Spark’s Take on OLN Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, OLN is a Neutral.

Olin Corporation’s overall stock score reflects significant financial pressures, including declining revenues and cash flow issues. Despite strategic initiatives and a promising acquisition, market challenges and high valuation metrics weigh on the stock. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while the earnings call provides a mix of positive strategic directions and ongoing market challenges.

To see Spark’s full report on OLN stock, click here.

Olin Corporation Issues Senior Notes and Refinances Credit

On March 14, 2025, Olin Corporation issued $600 million in 6.625% Senior Notes due in 2033, with provisions for early redemption and potential subsidiary guarantees. Concurrently, Olin refinanced its senior unsecured Credit Agreement, establishing a $650 million term loan and a $1.2 billion revolving credit facility, both maturing in 2030. These financial maneuvers aim to strengthen Olin’s capital structure and provide flexibility for future corporate needs.

Olin Announces $600 Million Senior Notes Offering

On February 28, 2025, Olin Corporation announced the pricing of its private offering of $600 million in senior notes due 2033, with a 6.625% interest rate. The offering is expected to close on March 14, 2025, and the proceeds will be used for refinancing transactions, including redeeming existing senior notes and refinancing credit facilities. This move is part of Olin’s strategy to manage its debt and improve financial flexibility, though the offering is subject to customary closing conditions and market conditions.

Olin Announces $600 Million Senior Notes Offering

On February 28, 2025, Olin Corporation announced its intention to offer $600 million in senior notes due 2033, as part of a strategy to refinance existing debt and replace its current credit facilities. The proceeds from this offering, along with new credit facilities, will be used to redeem and refinance existing notes and credit facilities, aiming to streamline its financial obligations. This move is not contingent on the closing of the new credit facilities and reflects Olin’s efforts to optimize its financial structure amid prevailing market conditions.

Olin Declares 393rd Consecutive Quarterly Dividend

On February 19, 2025, Olin Corporation’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share, payable on March 14, 2025, to shareholders recorded by March 6, 2025. This decision continues Olin’s long-standing tradition of regular dividend payments, marking the 393rd consecutive quarterly dividend, reinforcing its commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Olin Announces New Ammunition Facility with U.S. Army

On February 5, 2025, Olin Corporation announced the groundbreaking of a new 6.8mm Ammunition Facility at the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant, in collaboration with the U.S. Army’s JPEO A&A and JMC. The facility is part of the Next Generation Squad Weapons Program and aims to enhance the Army’s modernization efforts. The 450,000 square-foot facility will significantly impact the defense industry by creating jobs and driving economic growth in the Kansas City region. This development reinforces Lake City’s historic role in national defense and Olin’s legacy in ammunition manufacturing.