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Olin (OLN)
NYSE:OLN

Olin (OLN) AI Stock Analysis

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Olin

(NYSE:OLN)

Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$23.00
▲(9.16%Upside)
Olin's overall stock score reflects a combination of mixed financial performance, neutral technical indicators, and valuation concerns. The earnings call provided balanced insights with strengths in some segments but also significant challenges. The high leverage and valuation concerns are notable risks, while strong cash flow and strategic initiatives offer some positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow
Olin Corporation has raised its free cash flow estimates due to better working capital and lower capital expenditures, providing flexibility for capital deployment.
Financial Performance
Olin's Q1 results topped estimates largely due to Chlor-alkali EBITDA coming well ahead of expectations, indicating relative stability in chlorine and caustic prices.
Market Position
Olin is believed to remain better positioned compared to other commodity chemical peers to weather the Trump administration policies, with limited impact from a trade war and much to gain from a reduction in the corporate tax rate.
Negative Factors
Demand and Supply Challenges
A weaker than expected backdrop and incrementally sluggish demand for chlorine and vinyls in particular due in part to slower than expected building and construction activity.
Earnings Outlook
Significant negative earnings revisions are likely with 1Q25 EBITDA guidance well below expectations.
Operational Disruptions
An outage associated with the chlorine leak at Olin's Freeport facility.

Olin (OLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Olin Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOlin Corporation is a leading American manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and ammunition. The company operates in two primary sectors: Chemicals and Ammunition. Its Chemicals segment, known as Olin Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, produces chlorine, caustic soda, and other chemical products utilized in various industrial applications. The Ammunition segment, branded as Winchester, is one of the largest ammunition suppliers in the United States, serving commercial, military, and law enforcement markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyOlin Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its chemical products and ammunition. The Chemicals segment, which is a significant portion of Olin's business, makes money by producing and selling chlorine, caustic soda, and other related chemical products. These products are sold to a wide range of industries including paper, textiles, and water treatment facilities. The Ammunition segment generates revenue by manufacturing and selling ammunition products under the Winchester brand. This segment caters to commercial markets, military contracts, and law enforcement agencies. Olin's earnings are also influenced by strategic partnerships and long-term supply agreements, particularly in the chemicals sector, which help stabilize revenue streams and ensure consistent demand for its products.

Olin Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.77%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of positive and negative aspects. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business performed well, and strategic moves in the Winchester division were notable positives. However, challenges in the Epoxy segment and commercial ammunition market posed significant concerns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls Performance
The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business exceeded expectations due to planned and unplanned industry outages, resulting in increased chlorine and caustic soda volumes. Stable ECU values and positive pricing trends were observed into the second quarter.
Winchester Division Growth
Winchester's domestic and international military ammunition volume continues to grow. A three-year contract extension for operating the Lake City GOCO2 Ammunition facility through 2030 was awarded. The acquisition of AMMO Inc.'s Ammunition assets was completed, expected to be immediately accretive.
Debt Refinancing Success
Olin successfully refinanced its nearest debt tranche, pushing the nearest debt tower out to 2029. This positions the company well to weather the uncertain environment.
Cost Reduction Target Increased
Olin increased its cost reduction target to $50 million to $70 million for full year 2025 related to productivity and structural cost improvements.
Negative Updates
Weakness in Epoxy Business
Epoxy sales improved sequentially but were offset by higher costs. The U.S. and European demand remains weak, with earnings expected to remain negative in the second quarter.
Commercial Ammunition Demand Challenges
Commercial ammunition demand continues to be weak due to retailer destocking and lower consumer sales. Costs for metals are rising, impacting margins.
Company Guidance
During Olin Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics. Olin increased its annual cost reduction target to $50 million to $70 million, focusing on productivity and structural cost improvements. In the Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment, the company reported stronger-than-expected performance due to supply disruptions, which allowed them to delay their planned Freeport, Texas facility outage. Despite a sequential $33 million higher turnaround expense, Olin expects second-quarter adjusted EBITDA to remain similar to the first quarter, ranging between $170 million and $210 million. In the Epoxy segment, Olin anticipates continued challenges due to higher costs and global capacity overhang, with the second quarter expected to include a $10 million sequential headwind from a planned maintenance turnaround. For Winchester, military ammunition sales are growing, but commercial sales remain weak, with the company facing cost pressures from rising metal prices. Despite these challenges, Olin's recent acquisition of AMMO Inc.'s assets is expected to be immediately accretive, supporting Winchester's growth strategy. Olin also successfully refinanced its nearest debt tranche, pushing the nearest debt tower out to 2029, enhancing its financial resiliency amidst economic uncertainties.

Olin Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Olin shows a mixed financial performance. While it has a healthy gross profit margin of 33.13%, a low net profit margin of 0.94% indicates issues in converting revenue into profit. Revenue decline and high leverage are concerns, but strong cash flow generation provides some stability.
Income Statement
68
Positive
Olin shows a mixed performance in the income statement. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is healthy at 33.13%, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, the Net Profit Margin for the TTM is low at 0.94%, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. Revenue has declined over the years, with a significant drop of 30.16% from 2022 to 2023, highlighting a concerning trend in revenue growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate at 3.88% and 10.06% respectively, suggesting some operational efficiency but also room for improvement.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a relatively high Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.60, which could imply higher financial risk due to significant leverage. The Return on Equity for the TTM is notably low at 3.01%, indicating a modest return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 26.62%, suggesting a moderate level of financial stability. While there are strengths, such as a stable asset base, the high leverage remains a key concern.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Olin's cash flow statement reflects a solid cash generation capability. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is robust at 6.88 for the TTM, indicating strong cash flow relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow has decreased, with a decline of 37.77% from the previous year. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio stands at 3.12, showing that the company is generating sufficient cash flow, albeit with some reductions over time. Overall, cash flow stability is a positive aspect of Olin's financials.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.55B6.54B6.83B9.38B8.91B5.76B
Gross Profit673.60M737.50M1.16B2.18B2.29B383.40M
EBITDA659.30M844.30M1.30B2.44B2.32B-142.50M
Net Income61.40M108.60M460.20M1.33B1.30B-969.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.66B7.58B7.71B8.04B8.52B8.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments174.00M175.60M170.30M194.00M180.50M189.70M
Total Debt3.27B3.15B3.02B2.94B3.16B4.23B
Total Liabilities5.62B5.52B5.44B5.50B5.87B6.82B
Stockholders Equity2.04B2.02B2.23B2.54B2.65B1.45B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow191.80M308.10M738.30M1.69B1.54B119.50M
Operating Cash Flow336.20M503.20M974.30M1.92B1.74B418.40M
Investing Cash Flow-271.40M-283.70M-340.80M-259.70M-197.40M-835.70M
Financing Cash Flow-40.70M-212.60M-656.90M-1.65B-1.55B371.00M

Olin Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price21.07
Price Trends
50DMA
20.70
Positive
100DMA
22.25
Negative
200DMA
30.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.19
Negative
RSI
53.20
Neutral
STOCH
80.71
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.59, above the 50-day MA of 20.70, and below the 200-day MA of 30.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OLN.

Olin Risk Analysis

Olin disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Olin reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Olin Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$3.20B38.1019.47%0.47%6.01%12.38%
74
Outperform
$3.20B38.1019.47%0.47%6.01%12.38%
71
Outperform
$3.03B30.654.32%3.14%3.58%-5.17%
71
Outperform
$3.03B30.654.32%3.14%3.58%-5.17%
67
Neutral
$2.16B81.682.21%1.94%-7.91%-81.73%
67
Neutral
$2.16B81.682.21%1.94%-7.91%-81.73%
62
Neutral
$10.15B9.75-0.17%2.87%2.22%-32.49%
SSSSL
57
Neutral
$3.15B-28.05%2.00%-4.31%-1421.83%
SSSSL
57
Neutral
$3.15B-28.05%2.00%-4.31%-1421.83%
OLOLN
50
Neutral
$2.52B43.192.94%3.65%-1.13%-81.74%
ASASH
48
Neutral
$2.40B21.03-3.02%3.09%-7.63%-157.37%
ASASH
48
Neutral
$2.40B21.03-3.02%3.09%-7.63%-157.37%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OLN
Olin
22.22
-22.12
-49.89%
ASH
Ashland
53.97
-35.96
-39.99%
ASH
Ashland
53.97
-35.96
-39.99%
HWKN
Hawkins
152.50
63.22
70.81%
HWKN
Hawkins
152.50
63.22
70.81%
IOSP
Innospec
88.78
-29.30
-24.81%
IOSP
Innospec
88.78
-29.30
-24.81%
AVNT
Avient
33.76
-6.75
-16.66%
AVNT
Avient
33.76
-6.75
-16.66%
SSL
Sasol
5.15
-2.69
-34.31%

Olin Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Olin Corporation Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
May 1, 2025

On May 1, 2025, Olin Corporation held its annual meeting of shareholders, where the board approved a reduction in its size from ten to nine directors following the completion of Mr. C. Robert Bunch’s term. Shareholders elected nine directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025. Olin also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share, marking its 394th consecutive quarterly dividend. In its first quarter 2025 financial results, Olin reported a net income of $1.4 million, a significant decrease from the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA of $185.6 million. The company experienced higher chlorine demand, leading to a delay in planned maintenance, and announced cost-saving measures and reduced capital spending. Despite challenges in the epoxy market and Winchester sales, Olin remains focused on a value-first approach and expects stable performance in its chemical businesses.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025