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Olin
(NYSE:OLN)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
▼(-20.26% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/12/26
The score is held down primarily by weak current financial performance (sharp revenue/margin declines, net losses, weaker free cash flow and higher leverage) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative momentum). Partially offsetting these are the supportive dividend yield and a more constructive earnings-call outlook driven by cost-savings initiatives, merger synergy potential, and solid liquidity despite near-term uncertainty and elevated leverage.
Positive Factors
Structural Cost Savings
Beyond250 savings should provide recurring support to margins and cash generation, reducing reliance on cyclical pricing. The program’s multi-year targets and ongoing execution could improve earnings resilience across the chemical cycle.
Negative Factors
Revenue and Margin Contraction
The sharp deterioration in sales, margins and profitability indicates materially weaker earnings power in the current downcycle. Persistently low utilization or pricing could limit internal investment capacity and delay balance-sheet improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Structural Cost Savings
Beyond250 savings should provide recurring support to margins and cash generation, reducing reliance on cyclical pricing. The program’s multi-year targets and ongoing execution could improve earnings resilience across the chemical cycle.
Read all positive factors
Olin (OLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.13B
Dividend Yield4.29%
Average Volume (3M)3.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth0.60%
EPS Growth-920.33%
CountryUS
Employees7,849
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.23
Shares Outstanding113,982,490
10 Day Avg. Volume2,668,063
30 Day Avg. Volume3,431,121
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.40
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio9.63
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.60Price Target Upside-6.90% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.97B
Olin Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Olin Corporation is a global producer and supplier of chemical products, serving markets across the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's operations are divided into three distinct business segments: Chlor Alkali Products and V...
How the Company Makes Money
Olin makes money mainly by selling commodity and value-added chemical products and by selling ammunition under the Winchester brand.
1) Chemical products revenue (Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls): Olin generates revenue from the sale of chlor-al...
Olin Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized several positive strategic and operational developments — notably the planned Huntsman merger (creating a ~$12 billion business with $400 million of synergies), epoxy returning to profitability with >$50 million/year of structural cost reductions, meaningful Beyond250 cost savings momentum, improved Winchester commercial trends, and a solid liquidity position ($1.2 billion). Offsetting these positives are near-term headwinds: an unplanned Freeport outage that reduced Q2 EBITDA by $40 million (with an estimated $20 million Q3 impact), a working capital build and legacy litigation cash payments (~$195 million total) pushing expected leverage to ~4.5x at year-end, weak epoxy demand in Europe and a FIFO cost headwind in Q3, and ongoing geopolitical/market volatility that widened guidance. On balance, management conveyed confidence in long-term outlook, strong cost discipline, and cash generation, while acknowledging meaningful short-term uncertainty and balance sheet pressure from litigation payments.Positive Updates
Planned Merger with Huntsman
Announced merger creating a vertically integrated, North American-focused chemical leader with more than $12 billion in sales; definitive proxy filed July 13; special shareholder meeting scheduled for August 25; expected to realize $400 million of synergies quickly after close (expected in H1 2027).
Negative Updates
Freeport VCM Unplanned Outage Impact
Unplanned DCM/VCM outage at Freeport (early May) resulted in a $40 million penalty to second quarter adjusted EBITDA; plant restarted mid-May but will run at reduced rates through Q3, with an estimated additional $20 million impact to Q3 and recovery expected in Q4.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Planned Merger with Huntsman
Announced merger creating a vertically integrated, North American-focused chemical leader with more than $12 billion in sales; definitive proxy filed July 13; special shareholder meeting scheduled for August 25; expected to realize $400 million of synergies quickly after close (expected in H1 2027).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Olin guided to a third-quarter adjusted EBITDA range of $100 million to $200 million, with Chemicals EBITDA expected to be relatively flat Q3 vs Q2 and Winchester to see a modest sequential improvement (commercial volumes/pricing up for the seasonal Q3), although corporate costs are a sequential headwind; specific headwinds include an estimated $20 million Q3 impact from the Freeport VCM outage (following a $40 million Q2 penalty) and a FIFO-related epoxy headwind in Q3 despite epoxy remaining profitable and having >$50 million/year of structural cost savings from recent actions. On balance sheet and cash flow, Olin ended Q2 with $1.2 billion of available liquidity, no bond maturities before 2029, expects year-end leverage of ~4.5x after roughly $195 million of legacy litigation cash payments (≈$93 million paid in H1 and ~$100 million to be paid in H2), is targeting ~ $200 million of 2026 capital spending, expects working capital (excluding the ~$195 million) to be essentially flat for 2026, and reiterates a cash‑free tax year ±$20 million; longer term, management remains focused on Beyond250 cost savings (>$100 million incremental in 2026 and expected to exceed $250 million by 2028) and on realizing $400 million of merger synergies from the announced ~$12+ billion sales combination with Huntsman (expected to close in H1 2027).Olin Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.70B | 6.78B | 6.54B | 6.83B | 9.38B | 8.91B |
| Gross Profit | 460.70M | 501.50M | 737.50M | 1.16B | 2.18B | 2.29B |
| EBITDA | 487.80M | 623.80M | 873.90M | 1.31B | 2.43B | 2.49B |
| Net Income | -139.00M | -42.80M | 108.60M | 460.20M | 1.33B | 1.30B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.44B | 7.33B | 7.58B | 7.71B | 8.04B | 8.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 177.40M | 167.60M | 175.60M | 170.30M | 194.00M | 180.50M |
| Total Debt | 3.41B | 3.14B | 3.15B | 3.02B | 2.94B | 3.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.73B | 5.46B | 5.52B | 5.44B | 5.50B | 5.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.71B | 1.84B | 2.02B | 2.23B | 2.54B | 2.65B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 100.60M | 247.90M | 308.10M | 738.30M | 1.69B | 1.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 307.20M | 474.20M | 503.20M | 974.30M | 1.92B | 1.74B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -242.90M | -319.60M | -283.70M | -340.80M | -259.70M | -197.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -110.10M | -163.00M | -212.60M | -656.90M | -1.65B | -1.55B |
Olin Technical Analysis
Negative
23.20
Price Trends
21.03
Negative
24.09
Negative
23.22
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.83
Negative
37.88
Neutral
24.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.63, above the 50-day MA of 21.03, and below the 200-day MA of 23.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OLN.
Olin Risk Analysis
Olin disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Olin reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Olin Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $4.06B | 23.51 | 7.17% | 2.91% | 2.36% | 42.56% | |
66 Neutral | $2.87B | 29.28 | 7.12% | 1.34% | 7.79% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | $4.98B | -14.12 | -30.38% | ― | 24.25% | -515.23% | |
53 Neutral | $10.15B | -8.20 | -13.93% | 2.87% | -3.95% | -1725.20% | |
47 Neutral | $2.13B | -15.15 | -7.67% | 3.45% | 0.60% | -920.33% | |
44 Neutral | $2.39B | -7.85 | -170.31% | 2.06% | -1.38% | 28.10% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
OLN
Olin
18.63
-1.71
-8.41%
AVNT
Avient
43.73
9.48
27.67%
KWR
Quaker Chemical
164.83
29.86
22.12%
WLK
Westlake Corporation
78.85
-2.27
-2.80%
CC
Chemours Company
15.69
1.84
13.29%
PRM
Perimeter Solutions
31.07
12.38
66.24%
Olin Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresLegal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Olin Issues Supplemental Disclosures Amid Huntsman Merger Scrutiny
Neutral
Aug 18, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Olin and Huntsman agreed to a merger of equals, and by mid-July 2026 the joint proxy statement/prospectus and registration statement for the deal were declared effective, paving the way for both companies’ August 25, 2026 s...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Olin Board Declares 399th Consecutive Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
On August 11, 2026, Olin’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share on its common stock, continuing a long-standing practice of regular distributions. The dividend, payable on September 11, 2026 to shareholders of ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Olin Announces All-Stock Merger of Equals With Huntsman
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Olin entered into a merger agreement with Huntsman to pursue an all-stock merger of equals in which Huntsman shareholders will receive 0.5476 shares of Olin common stock for each Huntsman share, with the deal structured to procee...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Olin and Huntsman Announce All-Stock Merger of Equals
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Olin and Huntsman announced a definitive all-stock merger of equals, entered into on June 15, 2026, to create OlinHuntsman Corporation, a North American chemicals group with pro forma 2025 revenue of about $12.5 billion and a str...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.