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Olin (OLN)
NYSE:OLN
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Olin
(NYSE:OLN)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(0.54% Upside)
Olin's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including low profitability and high leverage, which are the most impactful factors. Technical indicators and valuation suggest caution, while the earnings call and corporate events provide some positive aspects. The company's strategic initiatives and dividend policy offer potential for improvement, but current risks weigh heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
Chlor Alkali and Vinyls Performance
The robust performance in the Chlor Alkali and Vinyls segment indicates strong demand and operational efficiency, contributing positively to Olin's revenue and profitability.
Clean Hydrogen Tax Credits
The clean hydrogen tax credits provide a sustainable financial benefit, enhancing Olin's EBITDA and supporting long-term profitability from 2026 to 2028.
Military Demand for Winchester
Increasing military demand for Winchester products supports stable revenue streams and offsets weaknesses in commercial ammunition sales, ensuring long-term segment viability.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Olin's high leverage poses financial risks, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to interest rate changes, impacting long-term financial health.
Weak Epoxy Business
The Epoxy segment's struggles with demand and competition may hinder revenue growth and margin recovery, affecting overall business performance.
Cash Flow Challenges
Significant cash flow challenges limit Olin's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt, impacting financial stability and strategic flexibility.
Olin (OLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.33B
Dividend Yield3.92%
Average Volume (3M)2.52M
Price to Earnings (P/E)44.0
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth4.68%
EPS Growth-62.80%
CountryUS
Employees7,676
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.40
Shares Outstanding114,121,530
10 Day Avg. Volume2,765,693
30 Day Avg. Volume2,518,479
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.97
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio12.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.61
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.17Price Target Upside18.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Olin Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOlin Corporation (OLN) is a global manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and ammunition. The company operates through two main segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, and Winchester. Olin's Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment produces a range of chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, and various vinyls, which are used in a variety of industrial applications. The Winchester segment focuses on the production of ammunition and related products for both commercial and military markets. Olin is headquartered in Clayton, Missouri, and serves diverse industries including water treatment, construction, and defense.
How the Company Makes MoneyOlin generates revenue primarily through the sale of chemicals and ammunition. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment accounts for a significant portion of the company's revenue, driven by demand from sectors such as water treatment, agriculture, and construction. The pricing of these products is influenced by raw material costs, production capacity, and market demand. In addition, the Winchester segment contributes to revenue through sales of various types of ammunition, including centerfire, rimfire, and shotshell products. Olin also benefits from strategic partnerships and contracts with military and law enforcement agencies, which provide consistent demand for their ammunition products. The company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and maintain operational efficiency further enhances its revenue generation capabilities.
Olin Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with strong performance in Chlor Alkali and Vinyls segments and the benefit of clean hydrogen tax credits, but ongoing challenges in the Epoxy and Winchester commercial ammunition segments as well as increased net debt due to working capital issues.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Robust Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls Performance
The third quarter of 2025 saw strong performance in the Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business, with stable ECU values and higher ethylene dichloride volumes contributing to an 8% sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA, excluding tax credits.
Section 45V Clean Hydrogen Tax Credit Eligibility
Olin secured eligibility for the Section 45V clean hydrogen production tax credits, resulting in a $32 million pre-tax benefit for the quarter. This is expected to provide an annual adjusted EBITDA benefit of $15 million to $20 million for 2026 through 2028.
Military Demand Boosts Winchester Segment
While commercial ammunition sales were weak, Winchester's military business showed strength, driven by growing domestic and international military demand, with NATO countries expanding their defense budgets.
Negative Updates
Continued Weakness in Epoxy Business
The Epoxy segment faced challenges due to weak global resin demand and competition from subsidized Asian imports, particularly affecting the U.S. and European markets.
Winchester Commercial Ammunition Struggles
Commercial ammunition sales were impacted by increased channel inventories, reduced retail sales, and higher costs, leading to a significant drop in margins.
Increased Net Debt Due to Working Capital Shortfalls
Olin experienced an increase in net debt due to unforeseen payment delays from the U.S. government related to the Lake City military business, although these payments were received in October.
Company Guidance
During Olin Corporation's third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic actions. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $190 million, excluding a $32 million benefit from the Section 45V clean hydrogen production tax credit, reflecting an 8% sequential improvement. For the fourth quarter, Olin anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be between $110 million to $130 million, factoring in a $40 million EBITDA penalty due to inventory reduction efforts. The company is focused on maintaining stable ECU values and expects an annual adjusted EBITDA benefit of $15 million to $20 million from the hydrogen tax credit for the years 2026 through 2028. Despite ongoing challenges in the Epoxy and Winchester businesses, Olin is optimistic about its strategic initiatives, including cost reductions under its Beyond250 initiative, which aim to deliver a $70 million to $90 million benefit. The company also expects its new Stade, Germany supply agreement to contribute approximately $40 million in annual adjusted EBITDA starting January 2026.Olin Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Olin's financial performance is challenged by low profitability and cash flow issues. The income statement shows declining margins and volatile revenue growth. The balance sheet is burdened by high leverage, and cash flow analysis reveals significant liquidity concerns.Income Statement
Olin's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is relatively low at 9.25%, indicating pressure on profitability. The net profit margin has decreased to 0.79% from 1.66% in the previous year, reflecting challenges in maintaining net income levels. Revenue growth is positive at 1.86% TTM, but this follows a decline in the previous year, suggesting volatility. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased significantly, indicating reduced operational efficiency.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.63 TTM, which is a concern for financial stability. Return on equity has decreased to 2.67% TTM, showing reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the high leverage suggests a lower proportion of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet indicates a need for improved capital structure management.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -126.84% TTM, indicating cash flow issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.10, suggesting weak cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting difficulties in converting profits into free cash flow.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.79B | 6.54B | 6.83B | 9.38B | 8.91B | 5.76B |
| Gross Profit | 628.10M | 737.50M | 1.16B | 2.18B | 2.29B | 383.40M |
| EBITDA | 783.00M | 873.90M | 1.31B | 2.43B | 2.49B | 549.40M |
| Net Income | 53.80M | 108.60M | 460.20M | 1.33B | 1.30B | -969.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.60B | 7.58B | 7.71B | 8.04B | 8.52B | 8.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 140.30M | 175.60M | 170.30M | 194.00M | 180.50M | 189.70M |
| Total Debt | 3.30B | 3.15B | 3.02B | 2.94B | 3.16B | 4.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.61B | 5.52B | 5.44B | 5.50B | 5.87B | 6.82B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.96B | 2.02B | 2.23B | 2.54B | 2.65B | 1.45B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 80.20M | 308.10M | 738.30M | 1.69B | 1.54B | 134.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 294.70M | 503.20M | 974.30M | 1.92B | 1.74B | 433.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -302.30M | -283.70M | -340.80M | -259.70M | -197.40M | -835.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -77.00M | -212.60M | -656.90M | -1.65B | -1.55B | 371.00M |
Olin Technical Analysis
Negative
20.39
Price Trends
21.01
Negative
21.88
Negative
21.46
Negative
Market Momentum
0.01
Positive
46.82
Neutral
11.87
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.79, below the 50-day MA of 21.01, and below the 200-day MA of 21.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OLN.
Olin Risk Analysis
Olin disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Olin reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Olin Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Neutral | $4.19B | 67.20 | 7.39% | ― | 19.12% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $2.85B | 25.21 | 4.79% | 3.49% | 1.03% | -24.57% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $2.51B | -284.45 | -0.64% | 1.35% | 0.08% | -107.33% | |
52 Neutral | $2.33B | 43.96 | 2.67% | 3.92% | 4.68% | -62.80% | |
52 Neutral | $9.30B | ― | -9.48% | 2.91% | -5.32% | -1108.29% | |
49 Neutral | $1.77B | -5.33 | -69.74% | 4.34% | 2.12% | -579.74% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
OLN
Olin
20.39
-11.59
-36.24%
AVNT
Avient
31.09
-8.67
-21.81%
KWR
Quaker Chemical
144.90
9.62
7.11%
WLK
Westlake Corporation
72.49
-38.91
-34.93%
CC
Chemours Company
11.82
-5.07
-30.02%
PRM
Perimeter Solutions
28.31
15.11
114.47%
Olin Corporate Events
Dividends
Olin Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.20 Per Share
Positive
Nov 12, 2025
On November 12, 2025, Olin‘s Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share, payable on December 12, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 28, 2025. This announcement marks Olin’s 396th consecutive quarterly dividend, highlighting the company’s consistent financial performance and commitment to returning value to its shareholders.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.