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Olin (OLN)
NYSE:OLN
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Olin
(NYSE:OLN)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$26.00
▲(0.46% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by weakening fundamentals—shrinking revenue, severely compressed margins, a 2025 net loss, and negative 2025 free cash flow alongside higher leverage. Technicals are a notable positive with price above major moving averages and supportive momentum indicators. Valuation is only moderately supportive due to the negative P/E, partially offset by a ~3.14% dividend yield, while the earnings call points to near-term headwinds tempered by liquidity strength and measurable cost-savings initiatives.
Positive Factors
Liquidity & Financing
Substantial near-term liquidity and staggered maturities materially reduce refinancing and short-term solvency risk. This financial buffer supports operational flexibility, funds cost-savings implementation, and allows the company to weather cyclical downturns without forced asset sales or emergency financing.
Measured structural cost savings
A clearly defined, measurable program with delivered savings and sizable incremental targets should sustainably boost margins if executed. Structural efficiencies (site consolidations, supply agreements) reduce the cost base, improving long-term cash generation and resilience to commodity cycles.
Diversified end markets & defense contracts
A dual chemical and ammunition portfolio spreads cyclical exposure across industrial and defense demand. Stable government and military contracts provide recurring revenue windows, while broad industrial end markets preserve volume optionality as individual end-market recoveries diverge.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
Sustained margin compression and shrinking revenue materially weaken intrinsic cash generation. A trend from double-digit gross margins to single digits constrains reinvestment, limits free cash flow recovery, and raises the bar for sustained deleveraging even after cost cuts.
Elevated leverage
Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to profit volatility. With equity erosion and elevated debt, the company faces greater refinancing and covenant risk during prolonged industry weakness, which can constrain capital allocation and shareholder returns.
Structural market headwinds in chlor-alkali & vinyls
Persistent weak vinyls pricing, rising U.S. energy costs, and competitive Asian exports erode the company’s cost advantage and pricing power. These structural pressures can persist across cycles, limiting margin recovery and keeping capital intensity and working-capital needs elevated.
Olin (OLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.95B
Dividend Yield3.91%
Average Volume (3M)3.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth4.68%
EPS Growth-62.80%
CountryUS
Employees7,676
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.58
Shares Outstanding114,121,530
10 Day Avg. Volume4,387,418
30 Day Avg. Volume3,455,422
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.40
Price to Book (P/B)1.26
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio10.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.00Price Target Upside-11.13% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Olin Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOlin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls; Epoxy; and Winchester. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment offers chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomers, methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, perchloroethylene, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, bleach products, potassium hydroxide, chlorinated organics intermediates and solvents, and sodium hypochlorite. The Epoxy segment provides epoxy materials and precursors, including aromatics, such as acetone, bisphenol, cumene, and phenol, as well as allyl chloride, epichlorohydrin, and glycerin used for the manufacturers of polymers, resins and other plastic materials, and water purification; liquid and solid epoxy resins that are used in adhesives, marines, protective coatings, composites, and flooring; and converted epoxy resins and additives for use in electrical laminates, paints and coatings, wind blades, electronics, and construction. The Winchester segment offers sporting ammunition products, including shotshells, small caliber centerfire, and rimfire ammunition products for hunters and recreational shooters, and law enforcement agencies; small caliber military ammunition products for use in infantry and mounted weapons; and industrial products comprising gauge loads and powder-actuated tool loads for maintenance applications in power and concrete industries, and powder-actuated tools in construction industry. The company markets its products through its sales force, as well as directly to various industrial customers, mass merchants, retailers, wholesalers, other distributors, and the U.S. Government and its prime contractors. Olin Corporation was incorporated in 1892 and is based in Clayton, Missouri.
How the Company Makes MoneyOlin generates revenue primarily through the sale of chemicals and ammunition. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment accounts for a significant portion of the company's revenue, driven by demand from sectors such as water treatment, agriculture, and construction. The pricing of these products is influenced by raw material costs, production capacity, and market demand. In addition, the Winchester segment contributes to revenue through sales of various types of ammunition, including centerfire, rimfire, and shotshell products. Olin also benefits from strategic partnerships and contracts with military and law enforcement agencies, which provide consistent demand for their ammunition products. The company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and maintain operational efficiency further enhances its revenue generation capabilities.
Olin Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects a balanced outlook: material near-term operational and market headwinds (extended turnarounds, third-party outages, stranded costs, weak vinyls and chlorine demand, raw material inflation) weighed against strong cash generation, disciplined liquidity and debt management, and concrete, measurable cost-savings actions (Beyond $250) that provide a clear path to margin recovery. Management emphasizes execution, cash preservation, and cost reductions as the levers to navigate the trough and position the company for recovery.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong cash generation and liquidity
Generated approximately $321 million of operating cash flow in Q4 2025, kept year-end net debt flat versus 2024, achieved $248 million of working capital reductions in 2025, and maintained available liquidity of $1.0 billion.
Progress on structural cost savings (Beyond $250)
Delivered $44 million of structural cost savings in 2025 and expects an incremental $100–$120 million of annual savings in 2026; confident in exceeding the $250 million target set at the 2024 Investor Day.
Concrete site-level and portfolio cost actions
Freeport improvement pilot reduced staffing and contractor reliance; Stade, Germany supply agreement expected to deliver $40–$50 million of epoxy savings in 2026; closure of Guaruga, Brazil epoxy plants expected to yield $10 million of annual savings.
Epoxy business cost progress and outlook
Epoxy global cash costs down ~19% over the past three years; Q4 2025 epoxy results improved sequentially and management expects epoxy to return to low-level profitability in Q1 2026 with further structural improvement through 2026.
Winchester proactive commercial and cost actions
Aggressive inventory reductions and rightsizing across Winchester (eliminated shifts, reduced headcount, restricted overtime), implemented commercial ammunition price increases intended to offset majority of 2025 cost escalation, and growing military/project sales (including Lake City NGSW project).
Balance sheet and financing stability
Completed a bond issuance and debt refinancing extending nearest bond maturities to 2033 and senior bank credit to 2030; no bond maturities until mid-2029, providing manageable, staggered maturities and financial flexibility.
Negative Updates
Q4 results significantly below expectations
Fourth quarter 2025 came in 'significantly below' expectations due to operational issues (extended Freeport turnaround), third-party raw material supply constraints impacting core alkali assets, and a sharp decline in chlorine pipeline demand in December.
Stranded costs from Dow PO closure
Faces approximately $70 million of stranded costs related to Dow's closure of its Freeport propylene oxide plant; management has offset roughly $20 million via power optimization but the remainder is a material headwind.
Chlor-alkali and vinyls market weakness
Global vinyls pricing expected to remain under pressure amid an extended trough and subsidized Asian exports; merchant chlorine demand under pressure and higher US natural gas/power costs eroding the US cost advantage.
Turnaround and weather-related cost headwinds
Significantly higher turnaround spend (noted ~ $40 million year-over-year increase) and proactive shutdowns due to winter storm Fern increased Q1 costs; Freeport VCM turnaround is the company's largest and affects near-term results.
Winchester commercial demand decline and raw material inflation
Commercial ammunition demand declined back to pre-COVID levels in 2025, pressuring volumes and margins; Winchester faces significant cost headwinds from higher copper, brass, and propellant costs despite military tailwinds.
Epoxy and vinyl demand/margin pressures remain
While epoxy is improving via cost actions, end markets remain subdued (epoxy reported ~ $50M EBITDA negative in 2025), and vinyls markets show limited near-term recovery expectations; China derivative exports up 300–600% since 2019, intensifying competitive pressure.
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q1 2026 earnings will be lower than Q4 2025 due to seasonally weak demand, winter‑storm Fern shutdowns and the Freeport VCM turnaround, while epoxy is expected to return to low‑level profitability in Q1; they warned of a challenging full‑year chlor‑alkali/vinyls backdrop with rising U.S. power/nat‑gas headwinds and a ~$70M stranded‑cost impact from Dow’s PO closure (about $20M of that already offset via power optimization). Cash and liquidity targets remain priorities: Olin generated ~$321M of operating cash flow in Q4, reduced working capital by ~$248M in 2025, finished the year with ~ $1.0B of available liquidity and kept net debt flat vs. year‑end 2024, expects 2026 to be essentially a cash‑free tax year (±$20M) after refunds, but still anticipates a seasonal net‑debt increase during 2026. On cost savings, the Beyond $250 program delivered ~$44M of structural savings in 2025 and management expects an incremental $100–120M of annual savings in 2026 (including $40–50M benefit from the Stade contract and ~$10M from the Guaruga closure), remaining confident they can exceed the $250M commitment; they also noted no bonds maturing until mid‑2029 and an extended bank credit agreement to 2030/2033.Olin Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial performance is pressured by multi-year revenue declines, sharp margin compression, and a return to a small net loss in 2025. Leverage has risen (debt-to-equity up to ~1.79x in 2025) and free cash flow turned negative in 2025, reducing flexibility, though operating cash flow remains positive.Income Statement
Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully from the 2021–2022 peak: gross margin fell from ~26% (2021) / ~23% (2022) to ~11% (2024) and ~7% (2025), and net income swung from solid profits in 2021–2024 to a small loss in 2025. Revenue has also been shrinking for several years (down ~9% in 2025 after declines in 2023–2024). Positively, the company has remained EBITDA-positive throughout the period and rebounded sharply after the 2020 loss, but the latest-year margin compression and return to losses are clear near-term concerns.44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains elevated: debt-to-equity improved from ~2.9x (2020) to ~1.16–1.35x (2021–2022), but has drifted back up to ~1.56x (2024) and ~1.79x (2025). Equity has declined since 2021–2022, and returns on equity have weakened from very strong levels in 2021–2022 to modest in 2024 and negative in 2025. The balance sheet is not distressed, but the combination of higher leverage and weaker earnings reduces flexibility if industry conditions stay soft.48
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened from very strong levels in 2021–2022 (healthy operating cash flow and large positive free cash flow) to much lower operating cash flow in 2023–2025, with free cash flow turning negative in 2025. While operating cash flow remained positive in the latest year, it has not consistently translated into free cash flow recently, suggesting higher capital needs and/or working-capital pressure. The sharp swing in free cash flow raises the risk that shareholder returns and deleveraging become harder to sustain in a downturn.42
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.78B | 6.54B | 6.83B | 9.38B | 8.91B |
| Gross Profit | 501.50M | 737.50M | 1.16B | 2.18B | 2.29B |
| EBITDA | 623.80M | 873.90M | 1.31B | 2.43B | 2.49B |
| Net Income | -42.80M | 108.60M | 460.20M | 1.33B | 1.30B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.33B | 7.58B | 7.71B | 8.04B | 8.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 167.60M | 175.60M | 170.30M | 194.00M | 180.50M |
| Total Debt | 3.39B | 3.15B | 3.02B | 2.94B | 3.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.40B | 5.52B | 5.44B | 5.50B | 5.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.90B | 2.02B | 2.23B | 2.54B | 2.65B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 235.90M | 308.10M | 738.30M | 1.69B | 1.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 462.20M | 503.20M | 974.30M | 1.92B | 1.74B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -319.60M | -283.70M | -340.80M | -259.70M | -197.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -151.00M | -212.60M | -656.90M | -1.65B | -1.55B |
Olin Technical Analysis
Positive
25.88
Price Trends
22.45
Positive
22.18
Positive
21.62
Positive
Market Momentum
0.93
Negative
60.16
Neutral
79.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.89, above the 50-day MA of 22.45, and above the 200-day MA of 21.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLN.
Olin Risk Analysis
Olin disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Olin reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Olin Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $3.88B | 62.24 | 7.39% | ― | 19.12% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $3.91B | 48.03 | 3.49% | 3.48% | 1.03% | -24.57% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $3.11B | -352.06 | -0.64% | 1.37% | 0.08% | -107.33% | |
56 Neutral | $12.84B | -13.48 | -9.48% | 2.88% | -5.32% | -1108.29% | |
54 Neutral | $2.95B | -68.12 | -2.18% | 3.91% | 4.68% | -62.80% | |
54 Neutral | $3.08B | -9.25 | -69.74% | 4.37% | 2.12% | -579.74% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
OLN
Olin
25.88
-1.50
-5.48%
AVNT
Avient
42.75
1.05
2.53%
KWR
Quaker Chemical
179.34
41.60
30.20%
WLK
Westlake Corporation
100.08
-12.16
-10.84%
CC
Chemours Company
20.52
3.68
21.85%
PRM
Perimeter Solutions
26.22
14.26
119.23%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.