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Olin
(NYSE:OLN)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$24.00
▼(-8.01% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/17/26
The score is primarily held back by weakened financial performance (margin compression, TTM net loss) and elevated leverage, partially offset by resilient operating/free cash flow. Technicals also remain weak with bearish trend and momentum signals. Offsetting these negatives, management’s latest call pointed to a sharp sequential EBITDA improvement with pricing and cost actions, and the Huntsman merger announcement adds potential medium-term synergy upside, supporting a mid-range overall score.
Positive Factors
Resilient operating cash flow and free cash flow
Sustained positive operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility to fund capital spending, litigation payments, dividends and integration costs. Strong cash generation cushions earnings cyclicality and supports deleveraging and strategic investments over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and rising net debt
High and rising leverage amid cyclicality raises refinancing and covenant risk, reduces financial flexibility for capex and M&A, and increases sensitivity to profit volatility. Litigation-related outflows and expected higher net debt delay achieving targeted leverage averages and heighten medium-term balance sheet risk.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Resilient operating cash flow and free cash flow
Sustained positive operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility to fund capital spending, litigation payments, dividends and integration costs. Strong cash generation cushions earnings cyclicality and supports deleveraging and strategic investments over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Olin (OLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.26B
Dividend Yield3.91%
Average Volume (3M)2.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth2.60%
EPS Growth-316.21%
CountryUS
Employees7,676
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.12
Shares Outstanding113,978,280
10 Day Avg. Volume3,187,452
30 Day Avg. Volume2,452,942
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.40
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio9.63
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.00Price Target Upside7.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.04B
Olin Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Olin Corporation is a global producer and supplier of chemical products, serving markets across the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's operations are divided into three distinct business segments: Chlor Alkali Products and V...
How the Company Makes Money
Olin makes money mainly by selling commodity and value-added chemical products and by selling ammunition under the Winchester brand.
1) Chemical products revenue (Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls): Olin generates revenue from the sale of chlor-al...
Olin Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple operational and commercial positives: epoxy has returned to profitability with large price increases, CAPV pricing momentum and announced caustic price hikes, significant structural cost savings from the Beyond two fifty program, improved Winchester channel dynamics, and solid liquidity and covenant flexibility. Offsetting risks include an unplanned vinyls outage at Freeport (incremental Q2 impact), ongoing raw material and freight inflation, seasonal demand softness in chlorine, and elevated leverage expectations due to litigation-related cash outflows. On balance the positives — clear cost actions, pricing tailwinds, strong Q2 guidance and restored epoxy profitability — materially outweigh the near-term operational and financial headwinds.Positive Updates
Q2 EBITDA Guidance and Q1 Baseline
Company guided second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $160 million to $200 million versus roughly $86 million of EBITDA in Q1 (analyst referenced), implying roughly a >100% increase to the midpoint (~$180M) driven by CAPV improvement, epoxy recovery, and Winchester momentum.
Negative Updates
Unplanned Freeport Vinyls Outage
An unplanned vinyls outage at Freeport occurred after completing a planned turnaround; management expects restart late next week. The event creates incremental second-quarter impact (management indicated the Q2 turnaround expense forecast did not include this unplanned event).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 EBITDA Guidance and Q1 Baseline
Company guided second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $160 million to $200 million versus roughly $86 million of EBITDA in Q1 (analyst referenced), implying roughly a >100% increase to the midpoint (~$180M) driven by CAPV improvement, epoxy recovery, and Winchester momentum.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Olin guided second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $160–$200 million (versus roughly $86 million in Q1), attributing the step-up mainly to CAPV pricing and volume recovery (while factoring in the estimated impact of an unplanned Freeport vinyls outage expected to restart late next week) plus sequential improvement in epoxy and Winchester; key financial and operational metrics highlighted include approximately $200 million of targeted 2026 capital spending, $1.3 billion of available liquidity with no debt maturities before 2029, expected 2026 cash taxes essentially cash‑free ± $20 million, an anticipated year-end leverage just above 4× (with a cycle goal to average below 2×), and net debt expected to rise in 2026 for legacy litigation payments. Management reiterated Beyond two fifty savings of more than $250 million cumulative by 2028 (they delivered $44 million in 2025 and expect an incremental $100–$120 million in 2026), a Q2 turnaround expense forecast of about $42 million (exclusive of the unplanned outage), domestic caustic price increases of $185/ton for 2026, epoxy price hikes of >$1,200/ton in North America and €1,300/ton in Europe, €40–€50 million of annual European epoxy cost improvement, Winchester commercial volume upside of mid‑ to high‑single digits year‑over‑year, and that 6–9% of global vinyls capacity has been impacted amid current supply disruptions.Olin Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.72B | 6.78B | 6.54B | 6.83B | 9.38B | 8.91B |
| Gross Profit | 432.50M | 501.50M | 737.50M | 1.16B | 2.18B | 2.29B |
| EBITDA | 495.10M | 623.80M | 873.90M | 1.31B | 2.43B | 2.49B |
| Net Income | -127.00M | -42.80M | 108.60M | 460.20M | 1.33B | 1.30B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.35B | 7.33B | 7.58B | 7.71B | 8.04B | 8.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 192.20M | 167.60M | 175.60M | 170.30M | 194.00M | 180.50M |
| Total Debt | 3.31B | 3.14B | 3.15B | 3.02B | 2.94B | 3.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.62B | 5.46B | 5.52B | 5.44B | 5.50B | 5.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.73B | 1.84B | 2.02B | 2.23B | 2.54B | 2.65B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 303.00M | 247.90M | 308.10M | 738.30M | 1.69B | 1.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 511.60M | 474.20M | 503.20M | 974.30M | 1.92B | 1.74B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -300.20M | -319.60M | -283.70M | -340.80M | -259.70M | -197.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -193.40M | -163.00M | -212.60M | -656.90M | -1.65B | -1.55B |
Olin Technical Analysis
Negative
26.09
Price Trends
25.48
Negative
25.67
Negative
23.74
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.31
Positive
33.07
Neutral
15.24
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.25, above the 50-day MA of 25.48, and above the 200-day MA of 23.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OLN.
Olin Risk Analysis
Olin disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Olin reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Olin Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $2.76B | 555.03 | 0.31% | 1.37% | 6.25% | -94.37% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $5.82B | -27.05 | -16.43% | ― | 22.99% | -245.44% | |
59 Neutral | $3.39B | 21.58 | 6.64% | 3.48% | 1.33% | 57.45% | |
52 Neutral | $2.26B | -17.56 | -6.73% | 3.91% | 2.60% | -316.21% | |
50 Neutral | $3.09B | -7.38 | -164.40% | 4.37% | 0.34% | -1414.08% | |
49 Neutral | $9.35B | -5.72 | -17.68% | 2.88% | -8.63% | -524.43% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
OLN
Olin
19.82
-0.87
-4.20%
AVNT
Avient
36.96
4.51
13.89%
KWR
Quaker Chemical
158.87
41.67
35.55%
WLK
Westlake Corporation
73.00
-5.40
-6.89%
CC
Chemours Company
20.52
8.43
69.78%
PRM
Perimeter Solutions
35.65
21.58
153.38%
Olin Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Olin Announces All-Stock Merger of Equals With Huntsman
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Olin entered into a merger agreement with Huntsman to pursue an all-stock merger of equals in which Huntsman shareholders will receive 0.5476 shares of Olin common stock for each Huntsman share, with the deal structured to procee...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Olin and Huntsman Announce All-Stock Merger of Equals
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Olin and Huntsman announced a definitive all-stock merger of equals, entered into on June 15, 2026, to create OlinHuntsman Corporation, a North American chemicals group with pro forma 2025 revenue of about $12.5 billion and a str...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsShareholder Meetings
Olin Shareholders Approve 2026 Incentive Plan and Directors
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Olin shareholders approved the 2026 Long Term Incentive Plan, enabling a range of equity awards for directors, officers, and key employees, and the board adopted detailed stock, RSU, PSU, and option award agreements that strengt...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.