Olin (OLN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.23B
• Dividend Yield: 4.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: -1.13%
• EPS Growth: -81.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,676
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 115,135,690
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,528,514
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,603,946
• PEG Ratio: -0.92
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $25.29
• Price Target Upside: 23.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.00 ▲(7.84%Upside)

Olin's overall score reflects a cautious outlook. Financial stability is supported by strong cash flow, yet challenged by declining revenue and high leverage. Corporate events and a mixed earnings call provide some positives, but technical analysis and valuation concerns weigh down the score. The stock may require improvement in profitability and debt management to enhance its attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Capital Allocation

Free cash flow remains strong and will likely be channeled towards buybacks supporting the stock.

Cost Management

Feedstock costs have deflated, supporting margins for Olin Corporation.

Financial Performance

Olin's Q1 results topped estimates largely due to Chlor-alkali EBITDA coming well ahead of expectations, indicating relative stability in chlorine and caustic prices.

Negative Factors

Earnings Expectations

Significant negative earnings revisions are likely with 1Q25 EBITDA guidance well below expectations.

Market Challenges

The outlook for both Epoxy and Winchester segments is disappointing due to soft demand and higher input costs.

Operational Disruptions

OLN will also have to deal with the closure of the Dow PO facility, which will probably cause some disruption in the chlor-alkali markets.

Olin Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Olin Corporation is a leading American manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and ammunition. The company operates in two primary sectors: Chemicals and Ammunition. Its Chemicals segment, known as Olin Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, produces chlorine, caustic soda, and other chemical products utilized in various industrial applications. The Ammunition segment, branded as Winchester, is one of the largest ammunition suppliers in the United States, serving commercial, military, and law enforcement markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Olin Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its chemical products and ammunition. The Chemicals segment, which is a significant portion of Olin's business, makes money by producing and selling chlorine, caustic soda, and other related chemical products. These products are sold to a wide range of industries including paper, textiles, and water treatment facilities. The Ammunition segment generates revenue by manufacturing and selling ammunition products under the Winchester brand. This segment caters to commercial markets, military contracts, and law enforcement agencies. Olin's earnings are also influenced by strategic partnerships and long-term supply agreements, particularly in the chemicals sector, which help stabilize revenue streams and ensure consistent demand for its products.

Olin Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Olin exhibits a mixed financial performance. The income statement reveals profitability challenges and declining revenue, while the balance sheet shows high leverage. However, strong cash flow generation is a positive aspect, indicating financial resilience despite the need to address revenue decline and leverage.

Income Statement

Olin shows a mixed performance in the income statement. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is healthy at 33.13%, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, the Net Profit Margin for the TTM is low at 0.94%, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. Revenue has declined over the years, with a significant drop of 30.16% from 2022 to 2023, highlighting a concerning trend in revenue growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate at 3.88% and 10.06% respectively, suggesting some operational efficiency but also room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a relatively high Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.60, which could imply higher financial risk due to significant leverage. The Return on Equity for the TTM is notably low at 3.01%, indicating a modest return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 26.62%, suggesting a moderate level of financial stability. While there are strengths, such as a stable asset base, the high leverage remains a key concern.

Cash Flow

Olin's cash flow statement reflects a solid cash generation capability. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is robust at 6.88 for the TTM, indicating strong cash flow relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow has decreased, with a decline of 37.77% from the previous year. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio stands at 3.12, showing that the company is generating sufficient cash flow, albeit with some reductions over time. Overall, cash flow stability is a positive aspect of Olin's financials.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
6.55B	6.54B	6.83B	9.38B	8.91B	5.76B
	Gross Profit
2.17B	737.50M	1.16B	2.18B	2.29B	383.40M
	EBIT
254.40M	296.50M	712.10M	1.78B	1.85B	-18.50M
	EBITDA
659.30M	844.30M	1.30B	2.44B	2.32B	-142.50M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
61.40M	108.60M	460.20M	1.33B	1.30B	-969.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
150.90M	175.60M	170.30M	194.00M	180.50M	189.70M
	Total Assets
7.61B	7.58B	7.71B	8.04B	8.52B	8.27B
	Total Debt
3.11B	3.15B	3.02B	2.94B	3.16B	4.23B
	Net Debt
2.96B	2.97B	2.85B	2.75B	2.98B	4.04B
	Total Liabilities
5.40B	5.52B	5.44B	5.50B	5.87B	6.82B
	Stockholders Equity
2.17B	2.02B	2.23B	2.54B	2.65B	1.45B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
191.80M	308.10M	738.30M	1.69B	1.54B	119.50M
	Operating Cash Flow
422.20M	503.20M	974.30M	1.92B	1.74B	418.40M
	Investing Cash Flow
-271.40M	-283.70M	-340.80M	-259.70M	-197.40M	-835.70M
	Financing Cash Flow
-40.70M	-212.60M	-656.90M	-1.65B	-1.55B	385.60M

Olin Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 20.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.95, below the 50-day MA of 21.78, and below the 200-day MA of 33.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OLN.

Olin Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWKN	73 Outperform	$2.67B	31.90	19.47%	0.54%	6.01%	12.38%
AVNT	72 Outperform	$3.41B	34.47	4.32%	2.94%	3.58%	-5.17%
IOSP	66 Neutral	$2.19B	82.98	2.21%	1.81%	-7.91%	-81.73%
OLN	58 Neutral	$2.23B	38.13	2.94%	4.13%	-1.13%	-81.74%
SSL	53 Neutral	$2.91B	―	-28.05%	2.00%	-4.31%	-1421.83%
Sector *	50 Neutral	$2.00B	-1.13	-21.16%	3.71%	2.15%	-30.95%
ASH	44 Neutral	$2.25B	21.03	-3.02%	3.29%	-7.63%	-157.37%

Olin Corporate Events

Olin Corporation Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

On May 1, 2025, Olin Corporation held its annual meeting of shareholders, where the board approved a reduction in its size from ten to nine directors following the completion of Mr. C. Robert Bunch’s term. Shareholders elected nine directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025. Olin also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share, marking its 394th consecutive quarterly dividend. In its first quarter 2025 financial results, Olin reported a net income of $1.4 million, a significant decrease from the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA of $185.6 million. The company experienced higher chlorine demand, leading to a delay in planned maintenance, and announced cost-saving measures and reduced capital spending. Despite challenges in the epoxy market and Winchester sales, Olin remains focused on a value-first approach and expects stable performance in its chemical businesses.

Olin Corporation Issues Senior Notes and Refinances Credit

On March 14, 2025, Olin Corporation issued $600 million in 6.625% Senior Notes due in 2033, with provisions for early redemption and potential subsidiary guarantees. Concurrently, Olin refinanced its senior unsecured Credit Agreement, establishing a $650 million term loan and a $1.2 billion revolving credit facility, both maturing in 2030. These financial maneuvers aim to strengthen Olin’s capital structure and provide flexibility for future corporate needs.

Olin Announces $600 Million Senior Notes Offering

On February 28, 2025, Olin Corporation announced the pricing of its private offering of $600 million in senior notes due 2033, with a 6.625% interest rate. The offering is expected to close on March 14, 2025, and the proceeds will be used for refinancing transactions, including redeeming existing senior notes and refinancing credit facilities. This move is part of Olin’s strategy to manage its debt and improve financial flexibility, though the offering is subject to customary closing conditions and market conditions.

Olin Announces $600 Million Senior Notes Offering

On February 28, 2025, Olin Corporation announced its intention to offer $600 million in senior notes due 2033, as part of a strategy to refinance existing debt and replace its current credit facilities. The proceeds from this offering, along with new credit facilities, will be used to redeem and refinance existing notes and credit facilities, aiming to streamline its financial obligations. This move is not contingent on the closing of the new credit facilities and reflects Olin’s efforts to optimize its financial structure amid prevailing market conditions.