Olin (OLN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.40B
• Dividend Yield: 3.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: 1.49%
• EPS Growth: -105.20%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,676
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 68
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 115,135,690
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,479,617
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,191,759
• PEG Ratio: 1.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.24
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.81
• 1Y Price Target: $24.00
• Price Target Upside: 9.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $23.00 ▲(5.07%Upside)

Olin's overall score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and revenue decline, compounded by valuation risks due to negative earnings. Although strong cash flow and strategic initiatives are positive factors, they are outweighed by operational and market challenges.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow

Olin Corporation has raised its free cash flow estimates due to better working capital and lower capital expenditures, providing flexibility for capital deployment.

Financial Performance

Olin Corporation's Q1 results topped estimates largely due to Chlor-alkali EBITDA coming well ahead of expectations, indicating relative stability in chlorine and caustic prices.

Negative Factors

Demand and Market Conditions

A weaker than expected backdrop and incrementally sluggish demand for chlorine and vinyls in particular due in part to slower than expected building and construction activity.

Operational Challenges

An outage associated with the chlorine leak at Olin's Freeport facility.

Segment Performance

Olin's financials remain under pressure as a decent recovery in chlor-alkali is being masked by weaker-than-expected Epoxy and Winchester platforms.

Olin Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Olin Corporation is a leading American manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and ammunition. The company operates in two primary sectors: Chemicals and Ammunition. Its Chemicals segment, known as Olin Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, produces chlorine, caustic soda, and other chemical products utilized in various industrial applications. The Ammunition segment, branded as Winchester, is one of the largest ammunition suppliers in the United States, serving commercial, military, and law enforcement markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Olin Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its chemical products and ammunition. The Chemicals segment, which is a significant portion of Olin's business, makes money by producing and selling chlorine, caustic soda, and other related chemical products. These products are sold to a wide range of industries including paper, textiles, and water treatment facilities. The Ammunition segment generates revenue by manufacturing and selling ammunition products under the Winchester brand. This segment caters to commercial markets, military contracts, and law enforcement agencies. Olin's earnings are also influenced by strategic partnerships and long-term supply agreements, particularly in the chemicals sector, which help stabilize revenue streams and ensure consistent demand for its products.

Olin Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Olin faces challenges with profitability and revenue decline, as indicated by a low net profit margin and a significant revenue drop. Despite these issues, its strong cash flow offers a positive aspect, bolstered by a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio.

Income Statement

Olin shows a mixed performance in the income statement. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is healthy at 33.13%, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, the Net Profit Margin for the TTM is low at 0.94%, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. Revenue has declined over the years, with a significant drop of 30.16% from 2022 to 2023, highlighting a concerning trend in revenue growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate at 3.88% and 10.06% respectively, suggesting some operational efficiency but also room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a relatively high Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.60, which could imply higher financial risk due to significant leverage. The Return on Equity for the TTM is notably low at 3.01%, indicating a modest return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 26.62%, suggesting a moderate level of financial stability. While there are strengths, such as a stable asset base, the high leverage remains a key concern.

Cash Flow

Olin's cash flow statement reflects a solid cash generation capability. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is robust at 6.88 for the TTM, indicating strong cash flow relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow has decreased, with a decline of 37.77% from the previous year. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio stands at 3.12, showing that the company is generating sufficient cash flow, albeit with some reductions over time. Overall, cash flow stability is a positive aspect of Olin's financials.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.54B	6.83B	9.38B	8.91B	5.76B
Gross Profit	737.50M	1.16B	2.18B	2.29B	383.40M
EBITDA	844.30M	1.30B	2.44B	2.32B	-142.50M
Net Income	108.60M	460.20M	1.33B	1.30B	-969.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.58B	7.71B	8.04B	8.52B	8.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	175.60M	170.30M	194.00M	180.50M	189.70M
Total Debt	3.15B	3.02B	2.94B	3.16B	4.23B
Total Liabilities	5.52B	5.44B	5.50B	5.87B	6.82B
Stockholders Equity	2.02B	2.23B	2.54B	2.65B	1.45B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	308.10M	738.30M	1.69B	1.54B	119.50M
Operating Cash Flow	503.20M	974.30M	1.92B	1.74B	418.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-283.70M	-340.80M	-259.70M	-197.40M	-835.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-212.60M	-656.90M	-1.65B	-1.55B	371.00M

Olin Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 21.89
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.40, above the 50-day MA of 20.67, and below the 200-day MA of 28.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLN.

Olin Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWKN	71 Outperform	$3.36B	39.93	19.47%	0.45%	6.01%	12.38%
IOSP	70 Neutral	$2.08B	78.61	2.21%	1.93%	-7.91%	-81.73%
AVNT	69 Neutral	$3.08B	31.11	4.32%	3.23%	3.58%	-5.17%
OLN	58 Neutral	$2.40B	41.89	-0.69%	3.65%	1.49%	-105.20%
SSL	57 Neutral	$3.34B	―	-28.05%	2.00%	-4.31%	-1421.83%
ASH	46 Neutral	$2.33B	21.03	-3.02%	3.20%	-7.63%	-157.37%
Sector *	44 Neutral	AU$1.48B	-6.11	-41.37%	4.14%	-3.52%	-43.04%

Olin Corporate Events

Olin Corporation Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

On May 1, 2025, Olin Corporation held its annual meeting of shareholders, where the board approved a reduction in its size from ten to nine directors following the completion of Mr. C. Robert Bunch’s term. Shareholders elected nine directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025. Olin also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share, marking its 394th consecutive quarterly dividend. In its first quarter 2025 financial results, Olin reported a net income of $1.4 million, a significant decrease from the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA of $185.6 million. The company experienced higher chlorine demand, leading to a delay in planned maintenance, and announced cost-saving measures and reduced capital spending. Despite challenges in the epoxy market and Winchester sales, Olin remains focused on a value-first approach and expects stable performance in its chemical businesses.