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Olin (OLN)
NYSE:OLN
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Olin (OLN) AI Stock Analysis

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OLN

Olin

(NYSE:OLN)

Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$24.50
▼(-3.20% Downside)
Olin's overall stock score reflects a balance of strengths and challenges. Strong cash flow and positive technical momentum are offset by high leverage and valuation concerns. The mixed earnings call outlook, with both operational challenges and cost-saving initiatives, further influences the score.
Positive Factors
Cost Management
Olin Corporation has raised its free cash flow estimates due to better working capital and lower capital expenditures, providing flexibility for capital deployment.
Financial Performance
Olin's Q1 results topped estimates largely due to Chlor-alkali EBITDA coming well ahead of expectations, indicating relative stability in chlorine and caustic prices.
Stock Buybacks
Free cash flow remains strong and will likely be channeled towards buybacks supporting the stock.
Negative Factors
Demand Challenges
A weaker than expected backdrop and incrementally sluggish demand for chlorine and vinyls in particular due in part to slower than expected building and construction activity.
Operational Disruptions
An outage associated with the chlorine leak at Olin's Freeport facility.
Segment Performance
Olin's financials remain under pressure as a decent recovery in chlor-alkali is being masked by weaker-than-expected Epoxy and Winchester platforms.

Olin (OLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Olin Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOlin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls; Epoxy; and Winchester. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment offers chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomers, methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, perchloroethylene, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, bleach products, potassium hydroxide, chlorinated organics intermediates and solvents, and sodium hypochlorite. The Epoxy segment provides epoxy materials and precursors, including aromatics, such as acetone, bisphenol, cumene, and phenol, as well as allyl chloride, epichlorohydrin, and glycerin used for the manufacturers of polymers, resins and other plastic materials, and water purification; liquid and solid epoxy resins that are used in adhesives, marines, protective coatings, composites, and flooring; and converted epoxy resins and additives for use in electrical laminates, paints and coatings, wind blades, electronics, and construction. The Winchester segment offers sporting ammunition products, including shotshells, small caliber centerfire, and rimfire ammunition products for hunters and recreational shooters, and law enforcement agencies; small caliber military ammunition products for use in infantry and mounted weapons; and industrial products comprising gauge loads and powder-actuated tool loads for maintenance applications in power and concrete industries, and powder-actuated tools in construction industry. The company markets its products through its sales force, as well as directly to various industrial customers, mass merchants, retailers, wholesalers, other distributors, and the U.S. Government and its prime contractors. Olin Corporation was incorporated in 1892 and is based in Clayton, Missouri.
How the Company Makes MoneyOlin generates revenue primarily through the sale of its chemical and ammunition products. The Chemical segment earns money by supplying high-demand chemicals to various industries, capitalizing on the needs for water treatment, industrial manufacturing, and consumer products. Revenue is driven by sales volume and pricing dynamics in the global chemical markets. The Ammunition segment makes money through contracts with government entities, military agencies, and commercial sales to consumers and law enforcement. Key partnerships with government and military contracts significantly contribute to stable revenue streams. Additionally, Olin benefits from economies of scale in production, which helps to optimize costs and enhance profitability.

Olin Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed outlook with stable chlorine index values and strong cash generation offset by unplanned operational events, steep EDC price decline, and challenges in the commercial ammunition and epoxy segments.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Chlorine Index Values
Despite ongoing trough demand conditions, North American chlorine index values remain stable and higher than any prior trough.
Strong Operating Cash Flow
Generated over $212 million in operating cash flow, which funded the acquisition of a new ammunition facility, debt reduction, and share buybacks.
Winchester Defense Business Growth
Winchester continues to grow based on strong domestic and international military ammunition demand.
Beyond 250 Cost Savings Initiative
Anticipated year-end 2025 run rate cost savings of $70 to $90 million through rightsizing and operational excellence initiatives.
Negative Updates
Unplanned Operating Events
Unplanned events limited results to the lower end of the second quarter outlook, impacting earnings.
EDC Price Decline
EDC prices declined more steeply than expected, presenting a significant headwind for earnings.
Challenges in Commercial Ammunition Business
Commercial ammunition business faced headwinds from customer destocking, lower pricing, and higher raw material costs.
Epoxy Segment Challenges
Building, construction, automotive, and consumer electronics remain weak, affecting epoxy segment performance.
Company Guidance
During Olin Corporation's second-quarter 2025 earnings call, several guidance metrics were discussed. Despite ongoing trough demand conditions, the North American chlorine index values remained stable, and Olin's chemicals businesses were expected to deliver flat sequential results despite a $32 million headwind from planned turnarounds. However, unplanned operating events led to results at the lower end of expectations. The company generated over $212 million in operating cash flow, facilitating a $56 million acquisition, $39 million in debt reduction, and $10 million in share buybacks. For the third quarter, Olin anticipates adjusted EBITDA in the range of $170 to $210 million, driven by seasonal demand strength and reduced turnaround expenses, although EDC price declines and higher commodity costs present challenges. The Beyond 250 cost savings project is expected to achieve year-end run rate savings of $70 to $90 million.

Olin Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Olin's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows challenges with profitability and revenue growth, while the balance sheet reflects high leverage, posing risks. However, cash flow remains strong, with robust operating cash flow relative to net income. Addressing revenue decline and leverage is crucial for financial health improvement.
Income Statement
68
Positive
Olin shows a mixed performance in the income statement. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is healthy at 33.13%, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, the Net Profit Margin for the TTM is low at 0.94%, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. Revenue has declined over the years, with a significant drop of 30.16% from 2022 to 2023, highlighting a concerning trend in revenue growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate at 3.88% and 10.06% respectively, suggesting some operational efficiency but also room for improvement.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a relatively high Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.60, which could imply higher financial risk due to significant leverage. The Return on Equity for the TTM is notably low at 3.01%, indicating a modest return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 26.62%, suggesting a moderate level of financial stability. While there are strengths, such as a stable asset base, the high leverage remains a key concern.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Olin's cash flow statement reflects a solid cash generation capability. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is robust at 6.88 for the TTM, indicating strong cash flow relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow has decreased, with a decline of 37.77% from the previous year. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio stands at 3.12, showing that the company is generating sufficient cash flow, albeit with some reductions over time. Overall, cash flow stability is a positive aspect of Olin's financials.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.66B6.54B6.83B9.38B8.91B5.76B
Gross Profit579.20M737.50M1.16B2.18B2.29B383.40M
EBITDA427.90M844.30M1.30B2.44B2.32B-142.50M
Net Income-16.00M108.60M460.20M1.33B1.30B-969.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.67B7.58B7.71B8.04B8.52B8.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments223.80M175.60M170.30M194.00M180.50M189.70M
Total Debt3.22B3.15B3.02B2.94B3.16B4.23B
Total Liabilities5.68B5.52B5.44B5.50B5.87B6.82B
Stockholders Equity1.99B2.02B2.23B2.54B2.65B1.45B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow89.90M308.10M738.30M1.69B1.54B119.50M
Operating Cash Flow245.60M503.20M974.30M1.92B1.74B418.40M
Investing Cash Flow-195.70M-283.70M-340.80M-259.70M-197.40M-835.70M
Financing Cash Flow-57.10M-212.60M-656.90M-1.65B-1.55B371.00M

Olin Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price25.31
Price Trends
50DMA
21.09
Positive
100DMA
20.78
Positive
200DMA
25.40
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.07
Negative
RSI
72.99
Negative
STOCH
87.46
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.97, above the 50-day MA of 21.09, and below the 200-day MA of 25.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.46 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLN.

Olin Risk Analysis

Olin disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Olin reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Olin Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$3.49B41.1618.69%0.44%9.51%5.20%
72
Outperform
$4.54B12.294.56%2.00%-6.73%
70
Neutral
$3.45B29.205.09%2.83%3.28%1.69%
65
Neutral
$2.90B41.89-0.69%3.16%1.49%-105.20%
63
Neutral
$2.13B113.691.55%1.90%-5.45%-87.13%
62
Neutral
$10.36B6.350.80%2.84%3.10%-36.03%
49
Neutral
$2.51B21.03-34.43%2.99%-11.38%-690.99%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OLN
Olin
25.31
-14.80
-36.90%
ASH
Ashland
54.91
-28.15
-33.89%
HWKN
Hawkins
167.14
54.16
47.94%
IOSP
Innospec
85.72
-18.91
-18.07%
AVNT
Avient
37.72
-5.77
-13.27%
SSL
Sasol
7.09
0.09
1.29%

Olin Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Olin Corporation Updates Bylaws with New Amendments
Neutral
Aug 13, 2025

On August 13, 2025, Olin Corporation’s Board of Directors approved amendments to the company’s Bylaws, which include revised procedural and disclosure requirements for shareholder nominations and business proposals, and mandate that director candidates be available for Board interviews. Additionally, on August 12, 2025, the Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share, payable on September 12, 2025, marking the company’s 395th consecutive quarterly dividend.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 29, 2025