Q2 EBITDA Guidance and Q1 Baseline
Company guided second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $160 million to $200 million versus roughly $86 million of EBITDA in Q1 (analyst referenced), implying roughly a >100% increase to the midpoint (~$180M) driven by CAPV improvement, epoxy recovery, and Winchester momentum.
Epoxy Business Returned to Profitability
Epoxy returned to profitability in Q1. Management announced price increases of more than $1,200/ton in North America and €1,300/metric ton in Europe, expects full-year epoxy performance to be meaningfully improved, and expects €40M–€50M of annual cost improvement from the new European cost structure.
Chlor-Alkali Pricing Actions
Olin announced $185/ton in domestic caustic soda price increases for 2026 and expects EDC and caustic pricing to stabilize at higher levels following late-March global supply disruptions; U.S. export EDC prices have significantly increased since January.
Beyond two fifty Structural Cost Savings
Clear line of sight to more than $250 million of cumulative savings by 2028; delivered $44 million of structural savings last year and expects incremental $100M–$120M of savings in 2026. Organizational actions include ~15% site headcount reductions and nearly doubled 'time on tools' at Freeport.
Winchester Channel Rebalancing and Demand Recovery
Winchester execution in H2 last year rebounded commercial pricing and normalized retailer shipments; management expects commercial volume uplift of mid- to high-single digits year-over-year and a stronger commercial backlog while continuing a make-to-demand model.
Liquidity and Balance Sheet Flexibility
Maintains full access to revolving credit and approximately $1.3 billion of available liquidity; no bond maturities before 2029 and bank covenants amended to provide flexibility through late 2027. Capital spending targeted at approximately $200 million for 2026.
Operational Execution and Safety
Completed the major triennial turnaround at Freeport ahead of schedule and on budget; reported record safety performance in Q1 and efficiency gains via proactive maintenance planning leveraging historical data and AI.
Market Dislocations Supporting U.S. Cost Advantage
Middle East conflict and related supply disruptions (6%–9% of annual vinyls capacity reported offline) led to tightened global supply, higher freight and crude costs, and a more constructive near-term pricing environment favoring advantaged U.S. Gulf Coast assets.