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Ashland
(NYSE:ASH)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$76.00
▲(14.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
ASH scores moderately, led by improving financial performance (notably strong TTM free cash flow and a return to profitability) and a clearly positive price trend above key moving averages. The main constraint is valuation (high P/E), while the latest earnings call supports the recovery narrative via reaffirmed guidance and strong cash generation but flags ongoing operational headwinds and reduced EPS growth expectations.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds capex, deleveraging, dividends or M&A without relying solely on capital markets. High quarterly conversion (>90%) and management's >50% adj. EBITDA FCF target underpin repeatable cash conversion capacity.
Negative Factors
Higher leverage vs prior years
Material increase in leverage reduces financial optionality and raises interest and refinancing sensitivity. Even if solvency is presently acceptable, higher indebtedness constrains capital allocation choices, limits ability to absorb shocks, and makes sustained investment or M&A more conditional on steady cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds capex, deleveraging, dividends or M&A without relying solely on capital markets. High quarterly conversion (>90%) and management's >50% adj. EBITDA FCF target underpin repeatable cash conversion capacity.
Read all positive factors
Ashland Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Measures profit from operations for each segment after accounting for operating costs, exposing the true earning power once overhead and fixed costs are included. Identifies which parts of Ashland are genuinely profitable, where margins can be improved, and which segments may need restructuring or additional investment.
Measures profit from operations for each segment after accounting for operating costs, exposing the true earning power once overhead and fixed costs are included. Identifies which parts of Ashland are genuinely profitable, where margins can be improved, and which segments may need restructuring or additional investment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAshland (ASH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.45B
Dividend Yield2.23%
Average Volume (3M)632.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)65.4
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth-1.39%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.14
Shares Outstanding45,793,370
10 Day Avg. Volume536,791
30 Day Avg. Volume632,178
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.16
Price to Sales (P/S)1.21
P/FCF Ratio-550.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$79.40Price Target Upside19.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)3.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.86B
Ashland Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ashland Inc. operates as a global supplier of specialized chemicals and additives. Its business activities are structured into four main divisions: Life Sciences; Personal Care & Household; Specialty Additives; and Intermediates and Solvents. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Ashland makes money primarily by selling specialty chemical products (ingredients and additives) to business customers, generating revenue from the volume of products shipped and the pricing of those products under customer supply agreements and p...
Ashland Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of clear commercial and cash-generation strengths—broad-based revenue growth (7% YoY), strong Life Sciences and Personal Care performance, inventory reduction, improved liquidity and the successful execution of Globalize and Innovate initiatives—while also acknowledging material margin pressure from earlier production disruptions, lower adjusted EBITDA versus last year, EPS headwinds from a higher tax rate, and slower-than-expected operational improvements in certain plants (notably Hopewell/HEC). Management expects pricing realization and manufacturing improvements to support a step-up in profitability in Q4 and reaffirmed revenue and EBITDA guidance, but timing of full margin recovery remains uncertain.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Volume Expansion
Third quarter sales of $497 million, up 7% year-over-year; volumes increased 6% across the portfolio, with foreign exchange contributing approximately $3 million (~1%).
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA declined to $109 million from $113 million year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 21.9% from 24.4% (a drop of ~250 basis points), reflecting operational disruptions and incentive normalization.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Volume Expansion
Third quarter sales of $497 million, up 7% year-over-year; volumes increased 6% across the portfolio, with foreign exchange contributing approximately $3 million (~1%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance calling for sales of $1.835–$1.870 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $385–$400 million, said Q4 should see a further step-up in profitability as pricing realization and operational improvements continue, and revised adjusted EPS guidance to low- to mid‑single‑digit growth (down from prior mid‑ to high‑single‑digit) due to a higher tax rate from discrete items; they also reiterated expected free cash flow conversion of >50% of adjusted EBITDA for the year. Key near‑term and program metrics cited on the call included Q3 sales of $497 million (+7% y/y) with volumes +6% and pricing ~+1% y/y, Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $109 million (21.9% margin) and adjusted EPS excluding amortization of $1.20, free cash flow of $103 million (conversion above 90% for the quarter), available liquidity of $936 million and net leverage of 2.4x, inventory down nearly $80 million YTD, pricing run‑rate targets in the ~3–8% range (tracking the midpoint), and structural run‑rate savings of roughly $12 million from VP&D optimization plus ~$3 million from small‑plant consolidation (≈$15 million total this year).Ashland Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.84B | 1.82B | 2.11B | 2.19B | 2.39B | 2.11B |
| Gross Profit | 541.00M | 549.00M | 618.00M | 668.00M | 830.00M | 670.00M |
| EBITDA | 358.00M | -509.00M | 303.00M | 457.00M | 509.00M | 448.00M |
| Net Income | 52.00M | -845.00M | 169.00M | 178.00M | 927.00M | 220.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.58B | 4.61B | 5.64B | 5.94B | 6.21B | 6.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 440.00M | 215.00M | 300.00M | 417.00M | 646.00M | 210.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.48B | 1.57B | 1.47B | 1.46B | 1.38B | 2.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.71B | 2.71B | 2.78B | 2.84B | 2.99B | 3.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.87B | 1.90B | 2.87B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 2.75B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 323.00M | -4.00M | 274.00M | 73.00M | -326.00M | 455.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 394.00M | 94.00M | 411.00M | 243.00M | -213.00M | 560.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.00M | -3.00M | -51.00M | -109.00M | 1.56B | -381.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -128.00M | -179.00M | -479.00M | -371.00M | -896.00M | -426.00M |
Ashland Technical Analysis
Positive
66.40
Price Trends
66.44
Positive
60.54
Positive
58.56
Positive
Market Momentum
2.50
Negative
65.73
Neutral
66.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.53, below the 50-day MA of 66.44, and above the 200-day MA of 58.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASH.
Ashland Risk Analysis
Ashland disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ashland reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ashland Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $3.15B | 35.32 | 33.05% | 1.73% | 10.15% | 3.57% | |
77 Outperform | $2.29B | 19.14 | 9.14% | 2.11% | 2.87% | 534.76% | |
66 Neutral | $2.96B | 30.36 | 7.12% | 1.34% | 7.79% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $3.45B | 65.42 | 2.77% | 2.51% | -1.39% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $2.65B | 50.51 | 85.17% | ― | -12.42% | ― | |
44 Neutral | $2.20B | -7.40 | -170.31% | 2.06% | -1.38% | 28.10% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
ASH
Ashland
74.72
21.42
40.19%
IOSP
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93.12
9.13
10.86%
KWR
Quaker Chemical
168.88
32.68
23.99%
WDFC
WD-40 Company
232.50
10.76
4.85%
CC
Chemours Company
15.24
0.90
6.30%
NGVT
Ingevity
76.19
20.69
37.28%
Ashland Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ashland Extends Receivables Financing Agreement to 2028
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Ashland Inc. entered into a Fifth Amendment to its Receivables Purchase Agreement, maintaining an accounts receivable securitization facility with commitments of up to $70 million and extending the agreement’s termination d...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ashland posts stronger Q3 results and reaffirms guidance
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
Ashland Inc. reported its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on July 28, 2026, with sales rising 7% year over year to $497 million and sales volumes up 6% across all business units, supported by broad-based demand and pricing actions that offset hi...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ashland Adds Independent Directors, Forms Capital Allocation Committee
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Ashland Inc. appointed Peter Thomas and Allen Spizzo as independent directors to its board under a cooperation agreement with major shareholder Ancora Holdings, temporarily expanding the board to 11 members before trimming it to ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ashland Secures New Credit Agreement to Boost Liquidity
Positive
May 29, 2026
Ashland Inc., together with Ashland Industries Europe GmbH, entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated May 28, 2026, with a syndicate of lenders led by The Bank of Nova Scotia, Houston Branch, as administrative agent, swing ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ashland Adds Independent Director, Expands Board for Growth
Positive
May 18, 2026
Ashland Inc. expanded its board of directors from eight to nine members and appointed Bertrand Loy as an independent director, effective May 15, 2026, with the move formally announced on May 18, 2026. Loy, who serves as director and executive chai...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.