Ashland (ASH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.51B
• Dividend Yield: 3%
• Average Volume (3M): 561.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -11.38%
• EPS Growth: -690.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,200
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 1.04
• Shares Outstanding: 45,705,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 440,804
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 561,686
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.89
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.25
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.42
• 1Y Price Target: $62.14
• Price Target Upside: 13.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $53.00 ▼(-2.89% Downside)

Ashland's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability, which are the most impactful factors. While technical analysis shows moderate bullish momentum, valuation concerns due to negative earnings and a high P/E ratio weigh on the score. The earnings call provides a mixed outlook with strategic progress but ongoing challenges.

Positive Factors

Innovation and Growth

ASH's focus on innovation across seven platforms is expected to enhance monetization opportunities and improve asset utilization and capital efficiency.

Market Position

Ashland trades at a discount compared to larger-cap consumer ingredient peers, and consistent growth along with margin expansion could add 2-3x to EV/EBITDA over the next cycle.

Restructuring

The recent acceleration of the restructuring program is seen as a positive step.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

ASH lowered its FY guidance range slightly to EBITDA of $400–410mn, lower from $400–420mn earlier.

Macroeconomic Conditions

The weak macro is prohibiting a meaningful recovery/growth.

Market Sentiment

There is Base Case uncertainty and time value risk for a shift in market sentiment to drive a multiple re-rate.

Ashland Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ashland Global Holdings Inc. (ASH) is a global leader in specialty chemicals, focused on providing innovative solutions in various sectors including personal care, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and construction. The company offers a wide range of products such as adhesives, coatings, and specialty polymers that enhance performance and sustainability for its customers. With a commitment to sustainability and innovation, Ashland operates across multiple regions, serving diverse industries with a portfolio that emphasizes high-value applications and customer-centric solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

Ashland generates revenue primarily through the sale of specialty chemicals and materials across its diverse product portfolio. The company's revenue model is driven by several key streams, including the provision of various chemical formulations tailored for specific applications in industries such as personal care, pharmaceuticals, and food. Additionally, Ashland benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with customers that provide stable revenue. The company also invests in research and development to innovate and improve existing products, which helps to create new revenue opportunities. Strategic collaborations and acquisitions further enhance Ashland's market position, contributing to its overall earnings.

Ashland Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ashland faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, negative profitability, and reduced cash flow generation. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but the decline in equity and cash flow metrics poses risks that need immediate attention.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a troubling trend with a significant decline in both revenue and profitability. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) period shows a decrease in total revenue to $1.869 billion from $2.113 billion in the previous year, highlighting negative revenue growth. The gross profit margin decreased, and the net profit margin turned negative with a net loss of $873 million. Additionally, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are concerning as they are significantly negative, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, which suggests a manageable level of leverage. However, the equity ratio has decreased over time, now at 40.9% in the TTM period. Stockholders' equity has also declined, pointing to reduced financial stability. The company needs to address its declining equity base to ensure sustained financial health.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow from $325 million to $69 million over the TTM period, indicating a significant drop in free cash flow growth rate. Operating cash flow remains positive but has decreased compared to previous years. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to net losses, which raises concerns about cash generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.87B	2.11B	2.19B	2.39B	2.11B	2.02B
Gross Profit	564.00M	618.00M	668.00M	830.00M	670.00M	599.00M
EBITDA	-549.00M	303.00M	457.00M	509.00M	448.00M	-254.00M
Net Income	-860.00M	169.00M	178.00M	927.00M	220.00M	-508.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.62B	5.64B	5.94B	6.21B	6.61B	6.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	207.00M	300.00M	417.00M	646.00M	210.00M	454.00M
Total Debt	1.49B	1.47B	1.46B	1.38B	2.10B	1.99B
Total Liabilities	2.73B	2.78B	2.84B	2.99B	3.86B	3.84B
Stockholders Equity	1.89B	2.87B	3.10B	3.22B	2.75B	3.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.00M	325.00M	73.00M	-326.00M	455.00M	70.00M
Operating Cash Flow	161.00M	411.00M	243.00M	-213.00M	560.00M	203.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-61.00M	-51.00M	-109.00M	1.56B	-381.00M	8.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-330.00M	-479.00M	-371.00M	-896.00M	-426.00M	9.00M

Ashland Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 54.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 54.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.42, above the 50-day MA of 52.74, and below the 200-day MA of 58.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASH.

Ashland Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WDFC	73 Outperform	$2.95B	34.31	36.00%	1.70%	6.52%	24.81%
KWR	70 Neutral	$2.51B	21.71	-0.52%	1.34%	-3.09%	-106.46%
IOSP	63 Neutral	$2.13B	113.69	1.55%	1.90%	-5.45%	-87.13%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.37B	6.45	-0.08%	2.84%	3.09%	-36.03%
NGVT	61 Neutral	$2.18B	―	-106.83%	―	-14.45%	49.92%
CC	51 Neutral	$2.34B	59.33	-87.50%	4.15%	2.48%	-459.90%
ASH	49 Neutral	$2.51B	21.03	-34.43%	3.00%	-11.38%	-690.99%

Ashland Corporate Events

Ashland Reports Q3 2025 Results with Sales Decline

On July 29, 2025, Ashland Inc. reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, revealing a 15% decline in sales to $463 million compared to the previous year, largely due to portfolio optimization initiatives. The company faced a net loss of $742 million, primarily due to a $706 million non-cash goodwill impairment charge. Despite these challenges, Ashland maintained strong margins through cost-saving measures and operational discipline, with Adjusted EBITDA aligning with expectations. The Life Sciences segment showed growth in pharma applications, while Personal Care experienced a decline due to portfolio changes and customer-specific softness. The company is optimistic about future growth due to strategic investments and market positioning.

Ashland Confirms William Whitaker as CFO

On May 5, 2025, Ashland Inc. appointed William Whitaker as Interim Chief Financial Officer, effective May 6, 2025, and later confirmed him as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Principal Financial Officer on July 18, 2025. With his appointment, Mr. Whitaker will receive a comprehensive compensation package including a base salary, incentive awards, and an equity grant, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on leadership stability and financial oversight.

Ashland Announces Retirement of Senior VP Karl Bostaph

On July 14, 2025, Ashland Inc. announced the retirement of Karl Bostaph, Senior Vice President of Operations, effective October 1, 2025. Bostaph, who has been with the company since its acquisition of Hercules in 2008, played a crucial role in Ashland’s portfolio and footprint optimization initiatives. Wayne Muil, an experienced operations executive, will succeed Bostaph, ensuring a seamless transition and continued operational excellence across Ashland’s global network.