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Ashland Global Holdings, Inc. (ASH)
:ASH
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Ashland (ASH) AI Stock Analysis

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ASH

Ashland

(NYSE:ASH)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$61.00
▲(21.10% Upside)
Ashland's overall stock score reflects significant profitability challenges and unattractive valuation, partially offset by strong technical momentum and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's ability to maintain margins and improve cash flow is a positive, but profitability issues and valuation concerns weigh heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Flow Growth
The significant growth in free cash flow indicates robust cash generation ability, enhancing financial flexibility and supporting long-term investments.
Resilient Performance in Key Segments
Success in Life Sciences and Personal Care segments demonstrates Ashland's ability to capitalize on high-demand areas, supporting sustained revenue growth.
Manufacturing Optimization
The ongoing manufacturing optimization program is expected to enhance operational efficiency, contributing to improved margins and long-term profitability.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
The decline in revenue growth reflects challenges in maintaining sales momentum, potentially impacting future earnings and market position.
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability issues, as indicated by negative margins, could hinder Ashland's ability to reinvest in growth and maintain competitive advantage.
Weak Demand in Specialty Additives
Weak demand in key markets for Specialty Additives could limit growth prospects and pressure margins, affecting long-term segment performance.

Ashland (ASH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ashland Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAshland Global Holdings Inc. is a diversified specialty chemicals company that provides a wide range of products and services to various industries including pharmaceuticals, personal care, food and beverage, and construction. The company operates in multiple segments, primarily focusing on specialty additives and performance materials, which enhance the properties of products and improve manufacturing processes. Ashland's core offerings include emulsions, polymers, and specialty chemicals that cater to the needs of its diverse customer base.
How the Company Makes MoneyAshland generates revenue through the sale of its specialty chemicals and additives across various sectors. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the direct sale of products to manufacturers and businesses in key industries. Key revenue streams include specialty additives that improve product performance, as well as performance materials that serve applications in construction and automotive. Additionally, Ashland benefits from significant partnerships with major companies in its target markets, which help drive sales and expand its reach. The company also focuses on innovation and product development to meet evolving customer needs, thus enhancing its competitive edge and revenue potential.

Ashland Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Ashland demonstrated resilience in maintaining margins and achieving expected EBITDA despite sales declines driven by portfolio optimization. Successes in Life Sciences and Personal Care were notable, but challenges remain in the Intermediates segment and demand for coatings. Cash generation and liquidity are strong, but higher tax rates and delayed optimization benefits pose challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Resilient Performance Amid Macroeconomic Challenges
Ashland maintained strong margins and achieved revenue and EBITDA in line with expectations despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges. Adjusted EBITDA was $119 million, marking a 5% increase on a comparable basis.
Life Sciences and Personal Care Success
Life Sciences saw continued demand for high-value cellulosic excipients, tablet coatings, and injectables. Personal Care generated broad-based gains with strong volume growth, outperforming a muted market environment.
Manufacturing Optimization Initiative
The $60 million manufacturing optimization program is underway, with $5 million in savings this year and $18 million projected next year, aiding margin improvements.
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Margins
Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 24.9%, up 110 basis points from last year, marking the most profitable quarter of the year.
Steady Cash Generation and Improved Liquidity
Ongoing free cash flow totaled $52 million with total liquidity standing at just over $800 million. A $103 million tax refund improved net leverage to closer to mid-2s.
Negative Updates
Sales Decline Due to Portfolio Optimization
Q4 sales were $478 million, down 8% year-over-year, primarily due to portfolio optimization initiatives.
Intermediates Segment Challenges
Intermediates faced pricing and volume pressure, with sales down 8% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA margins compressing due to lower pricing and production volumes.
Weaker Coatings Demand
Coatings demand remained weak, especially in China, India, and North America, negatively impacting the Specialty Additives segment.
Higher Effective Tax Rate Impacts Earnings
Adjusted earnings per share were down 14% from the prior year, disproportionately impacted by a higher effective tax rate.
Delayed Benefits from Manufacturing Optimization
The realization of benefits from the manufacturing optimization program is extending beyond initial expectations due to various operational challenges.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Ashland reported sales of $478 million, an 8% decrease year-over-year, largely due to portfolio optimization initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA was $119 million, down 4% from the previous year, with margins expanding to approximately 25%. The company highlighted that excluding the impact of portfolio optimization, sales declined only 1%, and adjusted EBITDA actually increased by 5% on a comparable basis. Ashland's guidance for fiscal 2026 projects sales between $1.835 billion and $1.905 billion, reflecting organic growth of 1% to 5%, and an adjusted EBITDA range of $400 million to $430 million. The company anticipates a free cash flow conversion of 50% with capital expenditures near $100 million. Key factors influencing the guidance include approximately $30 million in savings from restructuring and network optimization, as well as a $20 million impact from resetting performance-based compensation and merit increases.

Ashland Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ashland faces significant profitability challenges, with a negative net profit margin and declining revenue. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but the negative return on equity is concerning. Cash flow improvements are positive, yet profitability issues need addressing.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Ashland's income statement shows significant challenges, with a negative net profit margin of -46.19% and declining revenue growth of -2.35% in the TTM. The company has struggled with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 30.08%, suggesting some operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -37.70%, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company maintains a reasonable level of equity relative to its assets.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a strong free cash flow growth of 96.61% in the TTM, which is a positive sign. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.32, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also modest at 0.27, suggesting limited cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.82B1.82B2.11B2.19B2.39B
Gross Profit549.00M549.00M618.00M668.00M830.00M
EBITDA-512.00M-509.00M303.00M457.00M509.00M
Net Income-844.00M-845.00M169.00M178.00M927.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.62B4.61B5.64B5.94B6.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments207.00M215.00M300.00M417.00M646.00M
Total Debt1.49B1.49B1.47B1.46B1.38B
Total Liabilities2.73B2.71B2.78B2.84B2.99B
Stockholders Equity1.89B1.90B2.87B3.10B3.22B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow116.00M-4.00M274.00M73.00M-326.00M
Operating Cash Flow200.00M94.00M411.00M243.00M-213.00M
Investing Cash Flow-63.00M-3.00M-51.00M-109.00M1.56B
Financing Cash Flow-231.00M-179.00M-479.00M-371.00M-896.00M

Ashland Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price50.37
Price Trends
50DMA
49.65
Positive
100DMA
50.91
Positive
200DMA
51.65
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.81
Negative
RSI
72.11
Negative
STOCH
91.30
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.37, above the 50-day MA of 49.65, and below the 200-day MA of 51.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.11 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.30 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASH.

Ashland Risk Analysis

Ashland disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ashland reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ashland Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$2.67B29.4936.39%1.92%4.98%30.84%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
$2.63B-34.45%2.87%-13.67%-608.89%
58
Neutral
$2.34B-0.64%1.54%0.08%-107.33%
49
Neutral
$1.84B-0.09%2.31%-4.49%-100.80%
48
Neutral
$1.92B-69.74%4.01%2.12%-579.74%
48
Neutral
$1.86B-38.91%-13.39%88.25%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ASH
Ashland
57.49
-18.37
-24.22%
IOSP
Innospec
74.85
-41.58
-35.71%
KWR
Quaker Chemical
135.98
-19.15
-12.34%
WDFC
WD-40 Company
194.90
-75.67
-27.97%
CC
Chemours Company
12.96
-7.54
-36.78%
NGVT
Ingevity
52.54
5.01
10.54%

Ashland Corporate Events

Ashland Global Holdings Reports Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Outlook
Nov 6, 2025

Ashland Global Holdings, Inc. is a global additives and specialty ingredients company that operates in high-quality, consumer-focused markets such as pharmaceuticals, personal care, and architectural coatings. The company recently released its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, highlighting a disciplined approach to navigating challenging market conditions.

Ashland Global’s Resilient Earnings Amid Challenges
Nov 6, 2025

Ashland Global Holdings, Inc. recently held its earnings call, demonstrating a resilient performance amidst macroeconomic challenges. The company successfully maintained margins and achieved expected EBITDA, despite experiencing sales declines due to portfolio optimization. Notable successes were seen in the Life Sciences and Personal Care sectors, although challenges persist in the Intermediates segment and coatings demand. Strong cash generation and liquidity were highlighted, but higher tax rates and delayed optimization benefits pose ongoing challenges.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Ashland Reports Q4 2025 Results Amid Sales Decline
Neutral
Nov 4, 2025

Ashland Inc. reported its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, showing a sales decline to $478 million, down eight percent from the previous year, primarily due to Portfolio Optimization initiatives. Despite challenging market conditions, Ashland maintained strong margins and delivered consistent revenue and EBITDA, with growth in Personal Care and Life Sciences segments. The company received a $103 million tax refund related to the Nutraceuticals divestiture, strengthening its financial position. Ashland’s strategic focus on cost management and portfolio alignment positions it for future profit growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASH) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ashland stock, see the ASH Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Ashland Board Member Sergio Pedreiro Resigns
Neutral
Sep 18, 2025

On September 16, 2025, Sergio Pedreiro resigned from Ashland, Inc.’s Board of Directors, including his roles on the Compensation Committee and as Chair of the Audit Committee, effective September 30, 2025. His resignation led to a reduction in the Board’s size from nine to eight members, and it was clarified that his departure was not due to any disagreements with the company’s practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASH) stock is a Hold with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ashland stock, see the ASH Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 02, 2025