Olin (OLN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.88B
• Dividend Yield: 3.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.48
• Revenue Growth: 4.68%
• EPS Growth: -62.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,676
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 113,636,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,426,576
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,276,493
• PEG Ratio: 0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.58
• 1Y Price Target: $23.15
• Price Target Upside: -8.75% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.74B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.50 ▼(-3.43% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

The score is held back primarily by weakening fundamentals (shrinking revenue, severe margin compression, a 2025 net loss, and negative free cash flow alongside elevated leverage). This is partially offset by improving technical trend signals and supportive income characteristics (3.29% dividend yield), while earnings-call commentary suggests meaningful near-term headwinds but credible cost actions and liquidity discipline.

Positive Factors

Business-model diversification

Olin's dual-segment model (chlor-alkali chemicals and Winchester ammunition) spreads demand risk across industrial and defense/commercial markets. Different end‑market cycles and government contract exposure provide revenue resilience and predictable military sales that help stabilize cash flows over the next 2–6 months.

Liquidity and financing stability

Substantial available liquidity, recent strong operating cash generation and a flat net‑debt profile give Olin near‑term flexibility to fund operations, turnarounds and the cost program. Extended debt maturities and refinancing lower refinancing risk and support execution of strategic actions over the medium term.

Structural cost-savings program

A measurable, multi-year 'Beyond $250' cost program with delivered and forecasted structural savings improves long-run margins and cash flow. Identified site actions and contract savings (Stade, Guaruga) create a credible path to durable EBITDA and FCF improvement even if topline remains soft.

Negative Factors

Margin deterioration

Sharp, sustained margin compression from prior peak levels undermines the company's inherent cash-generation capacity. Lower gross margins reduce ability to absorb commodity/energy inflation, limit free cash flow, and lengthen the timeline to de‑lever and reinvest absent durable demand or structural pricing recovery.

Elevated leverage

Rising leverage combined with weakening profitability reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to cyclical downturns. Higher debt ratios constrain capital allocation choices, raise refinancing and covenant risk during stress periods, and make deleveraging dependent on sustained cash-flow recovery.

Structural end-market headwinds

Persistent weakness in chlor‑alkali/vinyls, intensified by subsidized Asian exports and rising U.S. power/gas costs, erodes pricing and volumes. At the same time ammunition volumes normalizing to pre‑COVID levels reduce commercial margin support. Together these structural pressures can keep revenues and margins depressed.

Olin Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Olin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls; Epoxy; and Winchester. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment offers chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomers, methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, perchloroethylene, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, bleach products, potassium hydroxide, chlorinated organics intermediates and solvents, and sodium hypochlorite. The Epoxy segment provides epoxy materials and precursors, including aromatics, such as acetone, bisphenol, cumene, and phenol, as well as allyl chloride, epichlorohydrin, and glycerin used for the manufacturers of polymers, resins and other plastic materials, and water purification; liquid and solid epoxy resins that are used in adhesives, marines, protective coatings, composites, and flooring; and converted epoxy resins and additives for use in electrical laminates, paints and coatings, wind blades, electronics, and construction. The Winchester segment offers sporting ammunition products, including shotshells, small caliber centerfire, and rimfire ammunition products for hunters and recreational shooters, and law enforcement agencies; small caliber military ammunition products for use in infantry and mounted weapons; and industrial products comprising gauge loads and powder-actuated tool loads for maintenance applications in power and concrete industries, and powder-actuated tools in construction industry. The company markets its products through its sales force, as well as directly to various industrial customers, mass merchants, retailers, wholesalers, other distributors, and the U.S. Government and its prime contractors. Olin Corporation was incorporated in 1892 and is based in Clayton, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Olin generates revenue primarily through the sale of chemicals and ammunition. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment accounts for a significant portion of the company's revenue, driven by demand from sectors such as water treatment, agriculture, and construction. The pricing of these products is influenced by raw material costs, production capacity, and market demand. In addition, the Winchester segment contributes to revenue through sales of various types of ammunition, including centerfire, rimfire, and shotshell products. Olin also benefits from strategic partnerships and contracts with military and law enforcement agencies, which provide consistent demand for their ammunition products. The company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and maintain operational efficiency further enhances its revenue generation capabilities.

Olin Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is weak: multi-year revenue declines, sharp gross-margin compression (down to ~7% in 2025), a return to a small net loss in 2025, and cash generation deterioration with free cash flow turning negative. Leverage has also drifted higher (debt-to-equity ~1.79x in 2025), reducing flexibility despite still-positive operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully from the 2021–2022 peak: gross margin fell from ~26% (2021) / ~23% (2022) to ~11% (2024) and ~7% (2025), and net income swung from solid profits in 2021–2024 to a small loss in 2025. Revenue has also been shrinking for several years (down ~9% in 2025 after declines in 2023–2024). Positively, the company has remained EBITDA-positive throughout the period and rebounded sharply after the 2020 loss, but the latest-year margin compression and return to losses are clear near-term concerns.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains elevated: debt-to-equity improved from ~2.9x (2020) to ~1.16–1.35x (2021–2022), but has drifted back up to ~1.56x (2024) and ~1.79x (2025). Equity has declined since 2021–2022, and returns on equity have weakened from very strong levels in 2021–2022 to modest in 2024 and negative in 2025. The balance sheet is not distressed, but the combination of higher leverage and weaker earnings reduces flexibility if industry conditions stay soft.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened from very strong levels in 2021–2022 (healthy operating cash flow and large positive free cash flow) to much lower operating cash flow in 2023–2025, with free cash flow turning negative in 2025. While operating cash flow remained positive in the latest year, it has not consistently translated into free cash flow recently, suggesting higher capital needs and/or working-capital pressure. The sharp swing in free cash flow raises the risk that shareholder returns and deleveraging become harder to sustain in a downturn.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.78B	6.54B	6.83B	9.38B	8.91B
Gross Profit	501.50M	737.50M	1.16B	2.18B	2.29B
EBITDA	623.80M	873.90M	1.31B	2.43B	2.49B
Net Income	-42.80M	108.60M	460.20M	1.33B	1.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.33B	7.58B	7.71B	8.04B	8.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	167.60M	175.60M	170.30M	194.00M	180.50M
Total Debt	3.39B	3.15B	3.02B	2.94B	3.16B
Total Liabilities	5.40B	5.52B	5.44B	5.50B	5.87B
Stockholders Equity	1.90B	2.02B	2.23B	2.54B	2.65B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	235.90M	308.10M	738.30M	1.69B	1.54B
Operating Cash Flow	462.20M	503.20M	974.30M	1.92B	1.74B
Investing Cash Flow	-319.60M	-283.70M	-340.80M	-259.70M	-197.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-151.00M	-212.60M	-656.90M	-1.65B	-1.55B

Olin Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 25.37
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.32, above the 50-day MA of 23.01, and above the 200-day MA of 21.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLN.

Olin Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KWR	62 Neutral	$2.55B	-1,217.14	-0.64%	1.37%	0.08%	-107.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
AVNT	59 Neutral	$3.76B	46.03	3.49%	3.48%	1.03%	-24.57%
WLK	55 Neutral	$13.48B	-9.00	-15.54%	2.88%	-5.32%	-1108.29%
CC	54 Neutral	$2.74B	-7.10	-90.40%	4.37%	2.12%	-579.74%
OLN	52 Neutral	$2.88B	-66.78	-2.22%	3.91%	4.68%	-62.80%
PRM	50 Neutral	$3.51B	-16.57	-18.02%	―	19.12%	―

Olin Corporate Events

Olin Declares Quarterly Dividend, Extending Long Payout Streak

On February 19, 2026, Olin’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share on its common stock, payable on March 13, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 3, 2026. The decision underscores the company’s long-standing commitment to returning cash to shareholders, as this payment represents Olin’s 397th consecutive quarterly dividend and signals continued financial stability and disciplined capital allocation.

This sustained dividend track record may reinforce investor confidence in Olin’s cash-generation capabilities and balance-sheet resilience. It also highlights the company’s emphasis on consistent shareholder returns, which can be a competitive differentiator within its industrial peer group and an important consideration for income-focused investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (OLN) stock is a Hold with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Olin stock, see the OLN Stock Forecast page.