Orange County Bancorp (OBT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $416.43M
• Dividend Yield: 2%
• Average Volume (3M): 39.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 8.90%
• EPS Growth: 18.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 225
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.93
• Shares Outstanding: 13,368,447
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 24,597
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 39,297
• PEG Ratio: 0.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.26
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.57
• 1Y Price Target: $36.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.29
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $131.90M

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $35.00 ▲(12.36% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is primarily supported by strong profitability, healthy returns, and improved leverage, plus an attractive valuation (low P/E and a dividend). Offsetting these positives are the pronounced 2025 cash-flow drop and weak near-term technical momentum (negative MACD and price below short-term moving averages), which temper the overall rating.

Positive Factors

High Profitability

Sustained high operating and net margins with healthy ROE indicate the bank generates robust profits from core banking activities. Over a multi-quarter horizon this supports reinvestment, capital build, and resilience versus peers, underpinning long-term earnings capacity.

De-risked Balance Sheet

A materially lower leverage ratio and higher equity base reduce funding and solvency risks and expand capacity to absorb losses or grow assets. This structural de-risking improves financial flexibility and supports sustained lending and dividend policy.

Consistent revenue scale & dividend

Multi-year revenue expansion to a larger scale plus an ongoing cash dividend reflect diversified interest and fee income and board confidence in capital. A steady payout backed by a $2.6B asset base signals durable cash-return discipline and client franchise stability.

Negative Factors

Severe cash-flow drop

A sharp, persistent decline in operating and free cash flow materially weakens cash conversion of earnings, limiting internal funding for loan growth, capital cushions, or buybacks. Over months this raises earnings-quality concerns and constrains strategic optionality.

Leverage volatility

Large year-to-year swings in capital structure indicate episodic financing or equity moves that complicate predictability of returns and risk posture. Such variability can mask underlying asset trends and makes stress planning and comparability harder for stakeholders.

Growth and margin sensitivity

Slowing top-line momentum and historical margin volatility signal earnings are sensitive to rate and credit cycles. Over the medium term this can produce uneven earnings streams and complicate capital allocation, challenging forecastable, stable profitability.

Orange County Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Orange County Bancorp, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides commercial and consumer banking products and services, and trust and wealth management services to small businesses, middle-market enterprises, local municipal governments, and affluent individuals. It accepts various deposit products, including interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing demand accounts, money market deposit accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company also offers commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate construction loans, residential real estate loans, home equity loans, and consumer loans. In addition, it provides traditional trust and administration, asset management, financial planning, and wealth management services. The company operates 14 full-service branches and one loan production office in Orange, Westchester, Rockland, and Bronx counties in New York. Orange County Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Middletown, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Orange County Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and mortgages, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings. The company provides various loan products, including personal loans, commercial loans, and real estate loans, where interest payments from borrowers create a steady income stream. Additionally, OBT earns fee income through service charges on deposit accounts, transaction fees, and wealth management services. The bank may also engage in investment activities that yield returns, and strategic partnerships with local businesses can enhance its customer base and facilitate cross-selling of financial products. Overall, the company's diverse revenue streams and focus on community banking contribute to its financial performance.

Orange County Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and improving margins (2025 net margin ~26%, operating margin ~33%) and healthy ROE (~15%) support the score, along with a markedly improved leverage profile in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.12x). The main drag is the sharp decline in cash generation in 2025 (operating and free cash flow down ~77% YoY), raising earnings-quality and sustainability questions.

Income Statement

OBT shows strong profitability and improving operating performance. Annual revenue increased from $64.4M (2020) to $158.1M (2025), with growth moderating in 2024 (~9%) and 2025 (~2%). Profitability is a clear strength: 2025 net margin was ~26% (up from ~19% in 2024) and operating margin improved to ~33% (from ~24% in 2024). A key watch-out is volatility in margins over time (peaking earlier and dipping in 2024), which suggests earnings can be sensitive to the rate/credit cycle.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows improved leverage and solid returns, but with notable year-to-year swings in capital structure. Debt relative to equity fell sharply to ~0.12x in 2025 (from ~0.77x in 2024 and ~1.54x in 2023), which is a meaningful de-risking signal. Equity also expanded to ~$284.4M in 2025 from ~$185.5M in 2024, supporting asset growth to ~$2.66B. Returns on equity remain healthy (~15% in 2024–2025), though the historical leverage variability is a risk factor for consistency and comparability across years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area due to a sharp recent decline. Operating cash flow fell to ~$9.2M in 2025 from ~$34.6M in 2024 and ~$44.5M in 2023, and free cash flow dropped similarly to ~$9.2M (down ~77% year over year). While free cash flow has historically tracked net income fairly closely (generally around 0.90–0.95x in prior years), 2025 reflects a materially lower cash conversion versus the company’s own history, which raises questions about sustainability of earnings quality and working-capital/operating movements.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	158.13M	143.09M	131.07M	96.00M	76.00M
Gross Profit	119.46M	99.92M	93.82M	80.35M	69.60M
EBITDA	53.10M	36.77M	39.12M	31.97M	28.34M
Net Income	41.61M	27.88M	29.48M	24.36M	21.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.66B	2.51B	2.49B	2.29B	2.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	623.64M	594.11M	637.33M	619.54M	770.98M
Total Debt	34.55M	143.09M	254.02M	150.95M	22.38M
Total Liabilities	2.38B	2.32B	2.32B	2.15B	1.96B
Stockholders Equity	284.36M	185.53M	165.38M	138.14M	182.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.33M	32.87M	40.96M	28.94M	18.36M
Operating Cash Flow	9.18M	34.60M	44.50M	30.48M	20.32M
Investing Cash Flow	-41.00M	-29.42M	-144.92M	-434.11M	-291.31M
Financing Cash Flow	40.69M	-2.23M	161.72M	183.53M	455.93M

Orange County Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 31.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 31.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.23, below the 50-day MA of 31.82, and above the 200-day MA of 27.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OBT.

Orange County Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OBT	72 Outperform	$416.43M	8.58	16.51%	2.00%	8.90%	18.23%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FRBA	65 Neutral	$389.08M	9.41	10.03%	1.41%	9.76%	4.43%
CIVB	64 Neutral	$458.46M	8.42	9.73%	2.96%	3.49%	33.86%
FMAO	63 Neutral	$343.70M	10.19	9.33%	3.18%	6.52%	36.77%
MSBI	54 Neutral	$446.03M	-3.72	-17.52%	5.87%	12.76%	-401.62%
BRBS	49 Neutral	$362.62M	26.69	3.15%	―	-15.07%	―

Orange County Bancorp Corporate Events

Orange County Bancorp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend Payment

On February 20, 2026, Orange County Bancorp, Inc., parent of Orange Bank & Trust Company and Orange Investment Advisors, Inc., announced it had declared a cash dividend of $0.18 per share on its common stock. The dividend was scheduled to be paid on March 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 4, 2026, underscoring the regional financial institution’s ongoing capital return to investors alongside its community banking and advisory operations.

The move highlights the company’s confidence in its financial position, backed by approximately $2.6 billion in total assets at Orange Bank & Trust and the complementary investment advisory business in Goshen, N.Y. For shareholders, the announced payout represented a direct benefit and signaled continued commitment to shareholder returns within the competitive regional banking landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBT) stock is a Buy with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orange County Bancorp stock, see the OBT Stock Forecast page.