Midland States Bancrop (MSBI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $492.46M
• Dividend Yield: 5.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 139.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: 12.76%
• EPS Growth: -401.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 907
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): -0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 21,551,722
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 153,914
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 139,988
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.18
• 1Y Price Target: $23.83
• Price Target Upside: 4.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.50 ▲(7.22% Upside)

Overall score is held back primarily by the TTM profitability breakdown despite strong cash generation and a reasonably positioned balance sheet. Technicals are supportive but overbought, valuation benefits from a high dividend yield but is tempered by losses, and corporate updates are mixed with portfolio-exit-driven losses offset by capital strengthening and buybacks.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation supports operational flexibility and investment capacity, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Strategic Portfolio Adjustment

Refocusing on core banking and wealth management can strengthen market positioning and reduce exposure to higher-risk assets.

Leadership Continuity

Planned leadership transition ensures continuity and stability, maintaining strong client relationships and strategic direction.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Declining revenue growth may hinder future profitability and market competitiveness, necessitating strategic adjustments.

Operational Efficiency Issues

Operational inefficiencies can impact profitability, requiring improvements in cost management and process optimization.

Income Decline

A decline in net income indicates financial strain, potentially affecting investment capacity and shareholder returns.

Midland States Bancrop Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates through Banking, Wealth Management, and Other segments. The company accepts various deposits, such as checking, savings, money market, and sweep accounts, as well as certificates of deposits. It also offers term loans to purchase capital equipment; lines of credit for working capital and operational purposes; commercial real estate loans for owner occupied and non-owner occupied commercial property, as well as farmland loans; construction and land development loans developers of commercial real estate investment properties, residential developments, individual clients for construction of single family homes, as well as to construct owner-user properties; and residential real estate loans and home equity lines of credit.. In addition, the company provides consumer installment loans for the purchase of cars, boats, and other recreational vehicles, as well as for the purchase of major appliances and other home improvement projects; commercial equipment leasing; and trust and wealth management products and services, including financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 52 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Effingham, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Midland States Bancorp generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income comes from net interest income, which is derived from the interest earned on loans and securities, minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowed funds. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income through service charges, fees for services, and wealth management fees. Significant partnerships with businesses and mortgage companies enhance its product offerings and customer base. The bank's focus on commercial lending, along with a growing portfolio of residential mortgages and consumer loans, also contributes to its overall earnings.

Midland States Bancrop Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: strong TTM cash generation (free cash flow up ~27% and strong vs. net income) and a workable balance sheet are outweighed by a material TTM profitability breakdown (negative EBIT/EBITDA and net loss) and modest revenue decline (~4%).

Income Statement

Results have deteriorated materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): revenue slipped ~4% and the company swung to a large operating loss (negative EBIT/EBITDA) and a net loss. This is a sharp reversal from 2021–2024, when the firm was consistently profitable with generally healthy margins and solid revenue growth in 2022–2023. The key weakness is the recent profitability breakdown and negative operating leverage, which meaningfully lowers confidence in near-term earnings quality.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for a regional bank, with debt-to-equity at ~0.86 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), though it has risen versus 2024 (~0.60) and remains above the stronger 2021–2022 range. Equity levels are sizable, but profitability on equity has weakened versus prior years, reflecting pressure on the franchise’s earnings power. Overall, the balance sheet appears reasonably positioned, but the upward leverage trend and weaker returns are notable risks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow improved in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with free cash flow up ~27% and free cash flow remaining very strong relative to reported net income. This provides financial flexibility despite the recent net loss. The main caution is volatility in cash conversion across years, but the latest period shows robust cash performance.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	531.11M	546.05M	508.50M	436.51M	313.23M	315.97M
Gross Profit	234.78M	235.94M	257.66M	303.73M	279.70M	225.86M
EBITDA	-101.68M	46.90M	100.68M	145.76M	115.46M	51.52M
Net Income	-122.46M	38.04M	61.16M	100.24M	81.32M	22.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.91B	7.51B	7.87B	7.86B	7.44B	6.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.31B	1.07B	1.05B	921.58M	1.58B	1.01B
Total Debt	546.78M	423.25M	604.41M	644.39M	536.61M	1.03B
Total Liabilities	6.33B	6.80B	7.08B	7.10B	6.78B	6.25B
Stockholders Equity	584.00M	710.85M	791.85M	758.57M	663.84M	621.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	226.98M	169.65M	145.91M	243.59M	331.72M	496.56M
Operating Cash Flow	231.07M	176.55M	154.64M	247.06M	334.44M	499.15M
Investing Cash Flow	475.86M	136.71M	-76.08M	-1.10B	-478.50M	-1.31B
Financing Cash Flow	-662.66M	-333.55M	-104.13M	332.08M	482.79M	760.42M

Midland States Bancrop Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.40, above the 50-day MA of 20.53, and above the 200-day MA of 17.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MSBI.

Midland States Bancrop Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BWFG	71 Outperform	$379.61M	10.83	10.04%	1.66%	2.52%	85.94%
SFST	70 Outperform	$449.91M	14.69	7.65%	―	4.74%	86.27%
BMRC	69 Neutral	$432.14M	-11.97	2.24%	3.76%	23.93%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CIVB	60 Neutral	$466.02M	9.14	9.73%	2.96%	3.49%	33.86%
MSBI	58 Neutral	$492.46M	-3.72	-17.52%	5.87%	12.76%	-401.62%
BRBS	48 Neutral	$388.83M	40.09	1.29%	―	-15.07%	―

Midland States Bancrop Corporate Events

Midland States Bancorp Reports Q4 Loss Amid Portfolio Exit

On January 22, 2026, Midland States Bancorp reported a net loss available to common shareholders of $5.1 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2025, reversing a $5.3 million profit in the prior quarter but markedly improved from a $33.0 million loss a year earlier. The quarter’s results were heavily impacted by a $21.4 million loss on the sale of substantially all of its equipment finance portfolio and a $1.6 million loss on a small consumer loan portfolio; excluding these items, adjusted earnings were $11.9 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, supported by $31.4 million in adjusted pre-provision net revenue, stable net interest margin of 3.74%, and continued reduction in nonperforming assets to 1.02% of total assets. Management emphasized that 2025 was focused on credit clean-up and risk reduction, including enhanced credit standards and the strategic exit from most equipment finance exposure, which drove significant net charge-offs and a reduction in the allowance for credit losses but also led to notable improvements in nonperforming loans and past-due metrics. At the same time, the company’s capital ratios strengthened, with total capital to risk-weighted assets at 15.16% and common equity tier 1 at 9.89%, enabling $9.6 million of share repurchases, while core Community Bank lending grew at roughly a 6.5% annualized rate and the wealth management unit posted another record quarter, signaling improved balance sheet quality and a sharpened focus on core, relationship-driven businesses heading into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSBI) stock is a Hold with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Midland States Bancrop stock, see the MSBI Stock Forecast page.

Midland States Bancorp Announces Finance Leadership Transition

On December 19, 2025, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. announced that Donald J. Spring, Chief Accounting Officer and Corporate Controller of Midland States Bank and principal accounting officer of the company, plans to retire effective January 2, 2026. Upon his retirement, the company’s Chief Financial Officer, Eric T. Lemke, will assume the role of principal accounting officer, signaling an internal leadership transition in the finance function that should support continuity in the company’s accounting oversight and financial reporting processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSBI) stock is a Hold with a $21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Midland States Bancrop stock, see the MSBI Stock Forecast page.

Midland States Bancorp Sells Equipment Finance Portfolio

On November 28, 2025, Midland States Bank sold most of its equipment finance portfolio to an affiliate of North Mill Equipment Finance LLC for $502 million in cash. This strategic move aligns with Midland’s focus on community banking and wealth management, allowing the company to pay down $350 million of high-cost wholesale funding and strengthen its balance sheet. The transaction is expected to result in a pre-tax loss of $20 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 but is seen as a step towards reducing exposure to higher-risk asset classes and improving the company’s credit profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSBI) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Midland States Bancrop stock, see the MSBI Stock Forecast page.

Midland States Bancorp Announces Leadership Transition Plan

On November 6, 2025, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. announced the planned retirement of Jeffrey S. Mefford, President of Midland States Bank, effective June 30, 2026. Mefford has been with the bank for 22 years and has significantly contributed to its growth. As part of the succession plan, Jeremy A. Jameson will be promoted to the newly created role of Executive Vice President – Chief Banking Officer, responsible for regional presidents, commercial lending, and credit. This transition aims to ensure continuity in leadership and maintain the bank’s strong client relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSBI) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Midland States Bancrop stock, see the MSBI Stock Forecast page.

Midland States Bancorp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On November 3, 2025, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share for common stock, payable on November 21, 2025, and a cash dividend of $0.4844 per depositary share for its preferred stock, payable on December 30, 2025. Additionally, the Board approved a stock repurchase program authorizing the company to buy back up to $25 million of its common stock, effective immediately and expiring on November 2, 2026. This move is expected to impact the company’s financial strategy and shareholder value positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSBI) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Midland States Bancrop stock, see the MSBI Stock Forecast page.

Midland States Bancorp Reports Q3 2025 Income Decline

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. reported a decline in net income for the third quarter of 2025, with earnings dropping to $5.3 million from $9.8 million in the previous quarter. The company has ceased equipment finance production and tightened underwriting standards to address credit quality issues, leading to a decrease in nonperforming assets. Despite the financial challenges, Midland States Bancorp saw positive revenue trends, particularly in its wealth management platform, and improved its capital position by redeeming subordinated notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSBI) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Midland States Bancrop stock, see the MSBI Stock Forecast page.