Midland States Bancrop (MSBI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $488.58M
• Dividend Yield: 5.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 139.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 12.76%
• EPS Growth: -401.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 907
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): -0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 21,551,722
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 153,914
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 139,988
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.49
• 1Y Price Target: $23.83
• Price Target Upside: 5.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.65
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $307.71M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $23.00 ▲(1.46% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is held down primarily by deteriorated financial performance in 2025 (revenue decline, swing to net loss, and reduced equity/negative ROE), partially offset by still-positive cash flow. Technicals are mixed but generally constructive over longer timeframes, while valuation benefits from a high dividend yield but is constrained by a negative P/E. Corporate events are mildly positive overall, with dividend declarations and governance/investor activity balanced against the recent loss tied to portfolio repositioning.

Positive Factors

Cash generation resilience

Midland generated roughly $126M of operating and free cash flow in 2025, which more than covered the reported net loss (~2.09x). Durable positive cash generation supports ongoing operations, funds credit-cleanup and targeted capital returns, and reduces near-term refinancing pressure despite earnings volatility.

Stronger regulatory capital and improving asset quality

Improved capital ratios (total capital 15.16% of RWA; CET1 9.89%) coupled with falling nonperforming assets (~1.02%) create a sustainable buffer to absorb losses and support lending. This bolsters long-term franchise stability and permits measured capital actions like repurchases while the bank refocuses on core businesses.

Governance and institutional alignment

Adding an experienced banking/private-equity director and visible institutional buying strengthens governance and aligns investor incentives with management. Durable governance upgrades can improve strategic oversight, execution on portfolio rebalancing, and credibility with creditors and large clients.

Negative Factors

Sharp profitability deterioration

The company swung to a sizable net loss in 2025 with deep negative margins. Persistent profitability weakness erodes retained capital, limits reinvestment in lending and channels, pressures dividend sustainability, and requires several quarters of earnings recovery to restore long-term capital generation and franchise competitiveness.

Balance-sheet shrinkage and lower equity

A meaningful drop in equity alongside asset contraction reduces the bank's loss-absorbing capacity and constrains capital flexibility. Over the medium term this limits capacity for lending growth, makes the bank more sensitive to future credit stress, and narrows strategic options without external capital or sustained earnings improvement.

Material decline in free cash flow year-over-year

A roughly 44.6% YoY drop in free cash flow, even from a positive base, signals weakening internal funding capacity. If the trend persists, the bank will face tougher trade-offs among loan growth, provisioning, capital returns and share repurchases, increasing reliance on external funding or capital actions for strategic needs.

Midland States Bancrop Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates through Banking, Wealth Management, and Other segments. The company accepts various deposits, such as checking, savings, money market, and sweep accounts, as well as certificates of deposits. It also offers term loans to purchase capital equipment; lines of credit for working capital and operational purposes; commercial real estate loans for owner occupied and non-owner occupied commercial property, as well as farmland loans; construction and land development loans developers of commercial real estate investment properties, residential developments, individual clients for construction of single family homes, as well as to construct owner-user properties; and residential real estate loans and home equity lines of credit.. In addition, the company provides consumer installment loans for the purchase of cars, boats, and other recreational vehicles, as well as for the purchase of major appliances and other home improvement projects; commercial equipment leasing; and trust and wealth management products and services, including financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 52 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Effingham, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Midland States Bancorp generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income comes from net interest income, which is derived from the interest earned on loans and securities, minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowed funds. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income through service charges, fees for services, and wealth management fees. Significant partnerships with businesses and mortgage companies enhance its product offerings and customer base. The bank's focus on commercial lending, along with a growing portfolio of residential mortgages and consumer loans, also contributes to its overall earnings.

Midland States Bancrop Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials weakened materially in 2025: revenue declined and profitability swung to a sizable net loss (net margin -26.6%) with negative operating performance (EBIT margin -22.1%). Balance-sheet strength also softened with meaningfully lower equity and negative ROE (-22.0%), though leverage remains moderate for a bank (debt-to-equity ~0.76). The main offset is resilience in cash generation, with operating/free cash flow still positive (~$126M) and covering the net loss, despite a sharp YoY free-cash-flow decline (~-44.6%).

Income Statement

Profitability deteriorated sharply in the latest annual period (2025), with revenue down (-11.96%) and results swinging to a sizable net loss (net margin -26.6%) after positive profits in 2024 (net margin ~7.0%). While gross margin improved in 2025 versus 2024, operating performance turned negative (EBIT margin -22.1%), indicating meaningful pressure below the gross line and a break in what had been a generally profitable 2021–2024 run.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate for a regional bank, with debt-to-equity at ~0.76 in 2025 (higher than 2024’s ~0.60, similar to 2023). However, equity has contracted meaningfully (about $711M in 2024 to ~$565M in 2025) alongside a move to negative returns for shareholders (return on equity -22.0% in 2025). Total assets also declined versus 2023–2024, signaling balance-sheet shrinkage and reduced cushion relative to recent years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remained positive in 2025, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both at ~$126M, and operating cash flow more than covering the reported net loss (coverage ~2.09x). The key weakness is the sharp decline in free cash flow year over year (down ~44.6% in 2025) and the drop from 2024 levels, suggesting reduced internal cash capacity despite still-solid absolute cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	467.59M	546.05M	508.50M	436.51M	313.23M
Gross Profit	268.30M	235.94M	257.66M	303.73M	279.70M
EBITDA	-93.47M	46.90M	100.68M	145.76M	115.46M
Net Income	-124.28M	38.04M	61.16M	100.24M	81.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.51B	7.51B	7.87B	7.86B	7.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.65B	1.07B	1.05B	921.58M	1.58B
Total Debt	432.06M	423.25M	604.41M	644.39M	536.61M
Total Liabilities	5.95B	6.80B	7.08B	7.10B	6.78B
Stockholders Equity	565.50M	710.85M	791.85M	758.57M	663.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	125.68M	169.65M	145.91M	243.59M	331.72M
Operating Cash Flow	125.68M	176.55M	154.64M	247.06M	334.44M
Investing Cash Flow	748.90M	136.71M	-76.08M	-1.10B	-478.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-861.54M	-333.55M	-104.13M	332.08M	482.79M

Midland States Bancrop Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 22.67
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSBI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.06, above the 50-day MA of 22.29, and above the 200-day MA of 18.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MSBI.

Midland States Bancrop Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BWFG	71 Outperform	$377.17M	10.49	10.04%	1.66%	2.52%	85.94%
BMRC	70 Outperform	$403.33M	-11.17	2.24%	3.76%	23.93%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SFST	66 Neutral	$459.96M	14.93	7.65%	―	4.74%	86.27%
CIVB	60 Neutral	$454.63M	9.02	9.73%	2.96%	3.49%	33.86%
MSBI	54 Neutral	$488.58M	-3.69	-17.52%	5.87%	12.76%	-401.62%
BRBS	49 Neutral	$370.53M	38.21	1.29%	―	-15.07%	―

Midland States Bancrop Corporate Events

Midland States Bancorp adds director amid new investments

On February 3, 2026, Midland States Bancorp expanded its board to 11 directors, appointing Patriot Financial Partners senior partner James F. Deutsch as a Class II director through the 2027 annual meeting and to the subsidiary bank board, expecting his extensive banking and private equity experience to enhance governance. The same day, Patriot disclosed open-market purchases of Midland States Bancorp common stock, signaling institutional confidence in the bank’s growth strategy and aligning the new director’s appointment with increased investor engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSBI) stock is a Hold with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Midland States Bancrop stock, see the MSBI Stock Forecast page.

Midland States Bancorp Declares Quarterly Common and Preferred Dividends

On February 3, 2026, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share on its common stock, payable on February 20, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. The board also approved a cash dividend of $0.4844 per depositary share on its 7.75% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A, payable on March 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 16, 2026, underscoring the company’s ongoing capital return to both common and preferred shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSBI) stock is a Hold with a $25.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Midland States Bancrop stock, see the MSBI Stock Forecast page.

Midland States Bancorp Reports Q4 Loss Amid Portfolio Exit

On January 22, 2026, Midland States Bancorp reported a net loss available to common shareholders of $5.1 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2025, reversing a $5.3 million profit in the prior quarter but markedly improved from a $33.0 million loss a year earlier. The quarter’s results were heavily impacted by a $21.4 million loss on the sale of substantially all of its equipment finance portfolio and a $1.6 million loss on a small consumer loan portfolio; excluding these items, adjusted earnings were $11.9 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, supported by $31.4 million in adjusted pre-provision net revenue, stable net interest margin of 3.74%, and continued reduction in nonperforming assets to 1.02% of total assets. Management emphasized that 2025 was focused on credit clean-up and risk reduction, including enhanced credit standards and the strategic exit from most equipment finance exposure, which drove significant net charge-offs and a reduction in the allowance for credit losses but also led to notable improvements in nonperforming loans and past-due metrics. At the same time, the company’s capital ratios strengthened, with total capital to risk-weighted assets at 15.16% and common equity tier 1 at 9.89%, enabling $9.6 million of share repurchases, while core Community Bank lending grew at roughly a 6.5% annualized rate and the wealth management unit posted another record quarter, signaling improved balance sheet quality and a sharpened focus on core, relationship-driven businesses heading into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSBI) stock is a Hold with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Midland States Bancrop stock, see the MSBI Stock Forecast page.

Midland States Bancorp Announces Finance Leadership Transition

On December 19, 2025, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. announced that Donald J. Spring, Chief Accounting Officer and Corporate Controller of Midland States Bank and principal accounting officer of the company, plans to retire effective January 2, 2026. Upon his retirement, the company’s Chief Financial Officer, Eric T. Lemke, will assume the role of principal accounting officer, signaling an internal leadership transition in the finance function that should support continuity in the company’s accounting oversight and financial reporting processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSBI) stock is a Hold with a $21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Midland States Bancrop stock, see the MSBI Stock Forecast page.