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Midland States Bancrop
(NASDAQ:MSBI)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(42.92% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/12/26
The score is driven by strong technical momentum and attractive valuation (low P/E plus a high dividend yield). Financial performance is improving with a clear earnings rebound and solid cash generation, but the declining revenue trend and still-subpar ROE versus prior years keep the fundamental profile from scoring higher; recent capital-return and governance events provide a modest positive support.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistent TTM operating and free cash flow near $117M demonstrates durable cash conversion that funds dividends, buybacks and capital needs without relying solely on new financing. This supports capital allocation flexibility and provides a buffer through credit or rate cycles over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue trend
A pronounced revenue decline weakens core earning power and limits sustainable margin improvement. Persistently lower revenues constrain loan growth funding, reduce fee income potential, and make it harder to rebuild reserve buffers and ROE, posing a durable headwind until top-line trends reverse.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistent TTM operating and free cash flow near $117M demonstrates durable cash conversion that funds dividends, buybacks and capital needs without relying solely on new financing. This supports capital allocation flexibility and provides a buffer through credit or rate cycles over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Midland States Bancrop (MSBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$629.15M
Dividend Yield5.87%
Average Volume (3M)139.99K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.1
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth-19.77%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees850
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.21
Shares Outstanding20,729,800
10 Day Avg. Volume153,914
30 Day Avg. Volume139,988
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.82
Price to Sales (P/S)0.99
P/FCF Ratio3.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.67Price Target Upside16.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$307.69M
Midland States Bancrop Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates in Banking and Wealth Mana...
How the Company Makes Money
Midland States Bancorp primarily makes money through its banking operations by earning net interest income and generating noninterest income. Net interest income is the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets (such as commercial ...
Midland States Bancrop Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 449.08M | 467.59M | 546.05M | 508.50M | 436.51M | 313.23M |
| Gross Profit | 268.10M | 268.30M | 235.94M | 257.66M | 303.73M | 279.70M |
| EBITDA | 58.59M | -93.47M | 60.06M | 100.68M | 145.76M | 115.46M |
| Net Income | 35.16M | -124.28M | 38.04M | 61.16M | 100.24M | 81.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.55B | 6.51B | 7.51B | 7.87B | 7.86B | 7.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.45B | 1.42B | 1.07B | 1.05B | 921.58M | 1.58B |
| Total Debt | 418.45M | 380.20M | 423.25M | 604.41M | 644.39M | 536.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.99B | 5.95B | 6.80B | 7.08B | 7.10B | 6.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 558.95M | 565.50M | 710.85M | 791.85M | 758.57M | 663.84M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 117.06M | 120.33M | 169.65M | 145.91M | 243.59M | 331.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 117.95M | 125.68M | 176.55M | 154.64M | 247.06M | 334.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 641.09M | 748.90M | 136.71M | -76.08M | -1.10B | -478.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -747.38M | -861.54M | -333.55M | -104.13M | 332.08M | 482.79M |
Midland States Bancrop Technical Analysis
Positive
23.79
Price Trends
28.07
Positive
25.15
Positive
21.76
Positive
Market Momentum
0.87
Positive
60.80
Neutral
61.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.96, below the 50-day MA of 28.07, and above the 200-day MA of 21.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MSBI.
Midland States Bancrop Risk Analysis
Midland States Bancrop disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Midland States Bancrop reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Midland States Bancrop Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $460.27M | 9.60 | 11.26% | 3.76% | -30.41% | -412.21% | |
77 Outperform | $591.49M | 10.46 | 10.21% | 2.96% | 4.52% | 19.77% | |
76 Outperform | $467.23M | 11.58 | 13.31% | 1.66% | 7.75% | 217.94% | |
73 Outperform | $629.15M | 25.08 | 6.16% | 5.87% | -19.77% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $578.56M | 14.16 | 9.65% | ― | 6.94% | 90.91% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
59 Neutral | $322.78M | 28.81 | 3.68% | ― | -10.96% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
MSBI
Midland States Bancrop
30.44
13.03
74.84%
BMRC
Bank Of Marin Bancorp
28.50
4.11
16.86%
CIVB
Civista Bancshares
27.93
4.07
17.05%
SFST
Southern First Bancshares
61.24
21.64
54.65%
BWFG
Bankwell Financial Group
58.44
21.10
56.50%
BRBS
Blue Ridge Bankshares
3.53
0.61
21.01%
Midland States Bancrop Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Midland States Bancrop appoints Claire Stack as CFO
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Midland States Bancorp announced that Claire A. Stack was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the company and Midland States Bank, effective May 8, 2026. Stack, who joined the bank in November 2025 as...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Midland States Bancorp Shareholders Back Board and Governance
Positive
May 8, 2026
At its May 4, 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. saw all four Class I director nominees elected to terms ending at the 2029 annual meeting, with each candidate receiving sufficient support despite some opposition and...
Dividends
Midland States Bancorp Declares Quarterly Common and Preferred Dividends
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share on its common stock, payable on May 22, 2026, to shareholders of record as of May 15. The board also approved a cash divide...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Midland States Bancorp Expands Share Repurchase Authorization Program
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. said its board had amended the stock repurchase program, lifting the total authorization from $25 million to $45 million and extending the program’s term through Dec. 31, 2026. Since the program w...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Midland States Bancorp Shares First-Quarter 2026 Results
Neutral
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Midland States Bancorp posted a slide presentation on its website detailing the company’s financial results for the first quarter of 2026. By making the materials available online as supplemental information rather than as...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.