Midland States Bancrop (MSBI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $456.90M
• Dividend Yield: 5.9%
• Average Volume (3M): 139.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: 12.76%
• EPS Growth: -401.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 907
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 21,551,722
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 153,914
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 139,988
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.92
• 1Y Price Target: $19.00
• Price Target Upside: -11.09% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.50 ▲(0.61% Upside)

Midland States Bancorp's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong cash flow generation and a positive technical trend. However, the negative P/E ratio and overbought technical indicators pose risks. The company's proactive corporate actions, such as dividends and stock buybacks, are positive but are offset by recent income declines and operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation supports operational flexibility and investment capacity, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Strategic Portfolio Adjustment

Refocusing on core banking and wealth management can strengthen market positioning and reduce exposure to higher-risk assets.

Leadership Continuity

Planned leadership transition ensures continuity and stability, maintaining strong client relationships and strategic direction.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Declining revenue growth may hinder future profitability and market competitiveness, necessitating strategic adjustments.

Operational Efficiency Issues

Operational inefficiencies can impact profitability, requiring improvements in cost management and process optimization.

Income Decline

A decline in net income indicates financial strain, potentially affecting investment capacity and shareholder returns.

Midland States Bancrop Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates through Banking, Wealth Management, and Other segments. The company accepts various deposits, such as checking, savings, money market, and sweep accounts, as well as certificates of deposits. It also offers term loans to purchase capital equipment; lines of credit for working capital and operational purposes; commercial real estate loans for owner occupied and non-owner occupied commercial property, as well as farmland loans; construction and land development loans developers of commercial real estate investment properties, residential developments, individual clients for construction of single family homes, as well as to construct owner-user properties; and residential real estate loans and home equity lines of credit.. In addition, the company provides consumer installment loans for the purchase of cars, boats, and other recreational vehicles, as well as for the purchase of major appliances and other home improvement projects; commercial equipment leasing; and trust and wealth management products and services, including financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 52 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Effingham, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Midland States Bancorp generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income comes from net interest income, which is derived from the interest earned on loans and securities, minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowed funds. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income through service charges, fees for services, and wealth management fees. Significant partnerships with businesses and mortgage companies enhance its product offerings and customer base. The bank's focus on commercial lending, along with a growing portfolio of residential mortgages and consumer loans, also contributes to its overall earnings.

Midland States Bancrop Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Midland States Bancorp demonstrates a stable financial position with strengths in cash flow generation and manageable leverage. However, challenges exist in revenue growth and operational efficiency, as indicated by the negative EBIT margin. The company should focus on improving revenue growth and operational margins to enhance overall financial performance.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 11.14%, which is concerning. However, the gross profit margin remains healthy at 57.05%, and the net profit margin is at 10.12%. The EBIT margin is negative, which suggests operational challenges. Overall, while profitability metrics are decent, the declining revenue growth and negative EBIT margin are key concerns.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.86, indicating a manageable level of leverage. Return on equity is relatively low at 6.62%, suggesting limited efficiency in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio is not directly provided, but the overall leverage appears controlled. The balance sheet is stable, but there is room for improvement in return metrics.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows positive trends. The free cash flow growth rate is 8.06%, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 21.30, suggesting robust cash flow relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy at 0.97. Overall, the cash flow position is strong, with good cash generation and coverage ratios.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	531.11M	546.05M	508.50M	436.51M	313.23M	315.97M
Gross Profit	234.78M	235.94M	257.66M	303.73M	279.70M	225.86M
EBITDA	-101.68M	46.90M	100.68M	145.76M	115.46M	51.52M
Net Income	-122.46M	38.04M	61.16M	100.24M	81.32M	22.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.91B	7.51B	7.87B	7.86B	7.44B	6.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	1.07B	1.05B	921.58M	1.58B	1.01B
Total Debt	598.46M	423.25M	604.41M	644.39M	536.61M	1.03B
Total Liabilities	6.33B	6.80B	7.08B	7.10B	6.78B	6.25B
Stockholders Equity	584.00M	710.85M	791.85M	758.57M	663.84M	621.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	228.36M	169.65M	145.91M	243.59M	331.72M	496.56M
Operating Cash Flow	231.07M	176.55M	154.64M	247.06M	334.44M	499.15M
Investing Cash Flow	475.86M	136.71M	-76.08M	-1.10B	-478.50M	-1.31B
Financing Cash Flow	-662.66M	-333.55M	-104.13M	332.08M	482.79M	760.42M

Midland States Bancrop Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 21.37
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.90, above the 50-day MA of 16.69, and above the 200-day MA of 16.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.09 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MSBI.

Midland States Bancrop Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SFST	75 Outperform	$450.16M	17.21	7.65%	―	4.74%	86.27%
BWFG	74 Outperform	$384.89M	13.55	10.04%	1.61%	2.52%	85.94%
BMRC	73 Outperform	$449.20M	45.09	2.24%	3.60%	23.93%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
MSBI	66 Neutral	$456.90M	-3.53	-17.52%	5.90%	12.76%	-401.62%
CIVB	64 Neutral	$465.83M	9.01	9.73%	2.78%	3.49%	33.86%
BRBS	52 Neutral	$414.44M	113.05	1.29%	―	-15.07%	―

Midland States Bancrop Corporate Events

Midland States Bancorp Sells Equipment Finance Portfolio

On November 28, 2025, Midland States Bank sold most of its equipment finance portfolio to an affiliate of North Mill Equipment Finance LLC for $502 million in cash. This strategic move aligns with Midland’s focus on community banking and wealth management, allowing the company to pay down $350 million of high-cost wholesale funding and strengthen its balance sheet. The transaction is expected to result in a pre-tax loss of $20 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 but is seen as a step towards reducing exposure to higher-risk asset classes and improving the company’s credit profile.

Midland States Bancorp Announces Leadership Transition Plan

On November 6, 2025, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. announced the planned retirement of Jeffrey S. Mefford, President of Midland States Bank, effective June 30, 2026. Mefford has been with the bank for 22 years and has significantly contributed to its growth. As part of the succession plan, Jeremy A. Jameson will be promoted to the newly created role of Executive Vice President – Chief Banking Officer, responsible for regional presidents, commercial lending, and credit. This transition aims to ensure continuity in leadership and maintain the bank’s strong client relationships.

Midland States Bancorp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On November 3, 2025, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share for common stock, payable on November 21, 2025, and a cash dividend of $0.4844 per depositary share for its preferred stock, payable on December 30, 2025. Additionally, the Board approved a stock repurchase program authorizing the company to buy back up to $25 million of its common stock, effective immediately and expiring on November 2, 2026. This move is expected to impact the company’s financial strategy and shareholder value positively.

Midland States Bancorp Reports Q3 2025 Income Decline

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. reported a decline in net income for the third quarter of 2025, with earnings dropping to $5.3 million from $9.8 million in the previous quarter. The company has ceased equipment finance production and tightened underwriting standards to address credit quality issues, leading to a decrease in nonperforming assets. Despite the financial challenges, Midland States Bancorp saw positive revenue trends, particularly in its wealth management platform, and improved its capital position by redeeming subordinated notes.