Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.19B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.86
• Revenue Growth: 20.27%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.25
• Shares Outstanding: 162,499,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,889,055
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,990,090
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.79
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.74
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.16
• 1Y Price Target: $10.00
• Price Target Upside: 36.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.13
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $459.72M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▲(2.18% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial health (negative equity, high leverage, and negative/declining cash generation) and severe revenue contraction. This is partly offset by a modestly positive technical setup, a low P/E valuation, and a cautiously optimistic earnings-call backdrop driven by raised revenue framework, partner milestones, and cost-reduction initiatives.

Positive Factors

Sanofi partnership and milestones

Large, ongoing collaboration with Sanofi provides durable, non-dilutive cash inflections and validates Novavax's Matrix-M adjuvant. Offloading commercialization to a major vaccine company improves revenue visibility and reduces Novavax's direct go-to-market burden over the medium term.

High reported gross margins

Very high gross margins indicate scalable vaccine manufacturing and strong product-level economics. If revenue stabilizes, these margins can support rapid conversion to operating leverage, fund R&D, and improve long-term free cash flow generation versus lower-margin peers.

Material cost and asset reductions

Sizable liability and cost reductions, plus campus consolidation savings, structurally lower cash burn and extend runway. Lower fixed costs and planned OpEx targets improve the company's ability to reach non-GAAP profitability and fund strategic programs without immediate external financing.

Negative Factors

High leverage and negative equity

Negative equity and extreme leverage create ongoing solvency and covenant risk, limiting strategic flexibility. High indebtedness increases interest and refinancing exposure, constraining capital allocation for R&D, manufacturing scale-up, or new product commercialization over the medium term.

Severe revenue contraction

Massive revenue decline and minimal product sales signal a structural shift from direct commercial sales to partner-driven revenue. This undermines recurring topline predictability and increases reliance on milestone payments and partnerships, making sustainable revenue growth uncertain.

Weak cash generation trends

Persistently negative operating and free cash flow with shrinking FCF growth reduces financial resilience and forces dependence on milestones, asset sales, or financings. This structural cash-generation weakness raises dilution and execution risk as the company pursues commercialization and R&D programs.

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate. It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics. It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Novavax generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the development and commercialization of its vaccine candidates. The company earns money by securing funding through government grants and partnerships, especially in response to global health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, where it received substantial financial support from initiatives like Operation Warp Speed. Additionally, Novavax generates revenue from the sale of its vaccines once they receive regulatory approval and are distributed globally. Key partnerships with governmental and non-governmental organizations, along with collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, enhance its revenue potential by expanding the reach of its products and sharing development costs. The company may also explore licensing its technology and products, creating additional revenue opportunities.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novavax's financial performance is concerning, with high leverage, negative equity, and declining revenue and cash flow growth rates. Despite a strong gross profit margin, the negative revenue growth and financial instability pose significant risks.

Income Statement

Novavax's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a strong gross profit margin of 88.35% and a net profit margin of 39.20%, suggesting profitability in recent periods. However, the revenue growth rate is negative at -130.4%, indicating a significant decline in revenue. Historical data shows fluctuating margins and inconsistent revenue growth, highlighting volatility in financial performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity and a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.07 in the TTM period, indicating high leverage. The return on equity is negative, reflecting losses in equity value. These factors suggest potential financial risk and a need for improved financial management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating that cash flow is just covering net income. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate of -39.56% suggests declining cash generation capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.06B	682.16M	556.38M	1.60B	197.58M	22.39M
Gross Profit	978.15M	479.42M	212.61M	696.31M	197.58M	22.39M
EBITDA	410.00M	-108.04M	-487.39M	-604.71M	-1.68B	-398.23M
Net Income	341.75M	-187.50M	-545.06M	-657.94M	-1.74B	-418.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.18B	1.56B	1.80B	2.26B	2.58B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	762.89M	923.12M	568.50M	1.34B	1.52B	711.05M
Total Debt	251.14M	230.42M	229.08M	549.78M	453.99M	467.98M
Total Liabilities	1.34B	2.18B	2.51B	2.89B	2.93B	955.27M
Stockholders Equity	-156.67M	-623.84M	-716.93M	-634.08M	-351.67M	627.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-384.43M	-100.32M	-772.77M	-508.92M	265.46M	-97.16M
Operating Cash Flow	-378.32M	-87.26M	-713.97M	-415.94M	322.95M	-42.54M
Investing Cash Flow	45.26M	-204.04M	-58.81M	-92.98M	100.15M	-377.78M
Financing Cash Flow	30.92M	260.58M	4.47M	324.99M	461.71M	984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.34
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.87, above the 50-day MA of 7.04, and above the 200-day MA of 7.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	70 Outperform	$1.05B	6.48	17.68%	―	-86.40%	30.72%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
NVAX	51 Neutral	$1.19B	4.15	―	―	20.27%	―
ORIC	51 Neutral	$822.94M	―	-39.73%	―	―	4.29%
VIR	50 Neutral	$827.79M	-1.64	-49.06%	―	-78.55%	7.74%
ABCL	49 Neutral	$1.23B	-7.13	-16.81%	―	7.16%	3.95%
SANA	46 Neutral	$1.20B	-4.66	-96.11%	―	―	31.16%

Novavax Corporate Events

Novavax Outlines New Growth Strategy and Partnerships

Novavax plans to provide investors with strategic and business updates on January 12, 2026, at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, supported by a corporate investor presentation accessible via its website. The presentation outlines the company’s recent leadership changes, cost and liability reduction efforts, and its key Sanofi partnership, and highlights a new growth strategy built around expanded partnerships, R&D-driven innovation, and a shift toward a diversified revenue model and non-GAAP profitability over the next several years, signaling a continued transition in its operational and financial trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Sell with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Transfers Nuvaxovid Rights to Sanofi

On November 3, 2025, the FDA approved the transfer of the marketing authorization for Novavax‘s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid™, to Sanofi Pasteur Inc. This transfer, part of a collaboration and license agreement, triggered a $25 million milestone payment to Novavax, with the company expecting the payment in the first quarter of 2026. This move aligns with Novavax’s strategy to secure non-dilutive capital, having already secured $225 million in 2025. The transfer allows Sanofi to manage the commercial and regulatory activities for Nuvaxovid in the U.S., potentially enhancing its market reach.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Enters Lease Agreement with AstraZeneca

On October 17, 2025, Novavax, Inc. entered into an agreement with AstraZeneca to assign the lease of its Gaithersburg, MD facility, resulting in a total of $59.8 million payable by AstraZeneca. This transaction, along with related asset and parcel sales, is expected to lead to non-cash impairment charges of between $96 million and $98 million in the third quarter of 2025, though it will not impact Novavax’s cash flow. The move signifies a strategic shift for Novavax as it relocates its headquarters and restructures its asset portfolio, potentially impacting its operational focus and financial standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Sell with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.