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Novavax (NVAX)
NASDAQ:NVAX

Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

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Novavax

(NASDAQ:NVAX)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▲(5.78%Upside)
Novavax's overall stock score is supported by its attractive valuation and promising revenue growth. Technical indicators show modest positive momentum, while recent earnings calls highlight strategic progress. However, significant financial risks due to high leverage and negative cash flows temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Partnership Milestones
The FDA approval triggers a $175M milestone from Sanofi, alleviating concerns of near-term risks associated with delays.
Regulatory Approvals
The approval of Nuvaxovid in individuals 65 years or older and individuals 12-64 with underlying conditions has significantly lifted NVAX shares.
Vaccine Efficacy
The Nuvaxoid COVID-19 vaccine is approved and conforms to the latest HHS guidance, showing little risk on this front and adding credibility to NVAX's product lineup.
Negative Factors
Market Valuation
Current share levels are believed to overvalue the discounted forecasts of associated royalty revenue streams, leading to an underweight rating.
Regulatory Challenges
The request for an additional randomized clinical trial for Nuvaxovid increases downside risk for potential milestones and royalties.
Regulatory Environment
The increasingly onerous vaccine regulatory environment is expected to make the recent upside in shares short-lived.

Novavax (NVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNovavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate. It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics. It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
How the Company Makes MoneyNovavax generates revenue primarily through the development, production, and sale of its vaccine products. A significant portion of its income is derived from government contracts, grants, and advance purchase agreements for its COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, which was distributed globally during the pandemic. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, research institutions, and governments to accelerate vaccine development and expand its market reach. Additionally, Novavax may receive milestone payments and royalties from licensing its proprietary technologies and vaccine candidates to other entities. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as regulatory approvals, production capacity, and the global demand for its vaccines.

Novavax Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 19.16%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects significant revenue growth and successful cost reduction strategies, alongside strategic partnerships and pipeline advancements. However, challenges remain with regulatory commitments and market penetration for existing products.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Surge
Novavax reported total revenue of $667 million for the first quarter of 2025, a significant increase from $94 million in the same quarter of 2024. This includes $622 million in product sales, primarily from the termination of agreements with Canada and New Zealand.
Cost Reduction Success
The company reduced combined R&D and SG&A expenses by 24% compared to the previous year, with a significant 45% reduction in SG&A costs.
Strategic Partnerships
Strengthened partnership with Takeda for the Japanese market and ongoing collaborations with Sanofi and other pharmaceutical companies to advance pipeline and technology platform.
Positive Phase 3 Enrollment
Completion of enrollment of approximately 2,000 participants in a Phase 3 trial for CIC and standalone flu vaccine candidates.
New Early-Stage Pipeline Programs
Initiation of four early-stage programs, including H5N1, RSV combinations, shingles, and C. Difficile.
Negative Updates
Post-Marketing Commitment with FDA
Ongoing discussions with the FDA regarding a post-marketing commitment study related to the BLA for the COVID-19 vaccine, which could impact operations and require additional resources.
Limited Nuvaxovid Sales
Minimal sales of Nuvaxovid, with only $5 million recorded in the US and Germany, indicating challenges in market penetration.
Regulatory Challenges
Indication that an accelerated approval pathway for the CIC and flu vaccine is not feasible, necessitating a partnership for further development and commercialization.
Company Guidance
During the Novavax First Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Operational Highlights Conference Call, the company provided a detailed overview of its strategic priorities and financial performance. The call highlighted a significant revenue increase to $667 million, largely due to the recognition of $603 million from the closure of agreements with Canada and New Zealand. The company reiterated its full-year financial guidance, projecting combined R&D and SG&A expenses between $475 million and $525 million and increased its 2025 revenue framework to between $975 million and $1,025 million. Novavax emphasized its progress in reducing costs, cutting combined R&D and SG&A expenses by 24% year-over-year, and highlighted its strategic focus on partnerships, including an amended agreement with Takeda and ongoing collaboration with Sanofi. The company aims for non-GAAP profitability by 2027 and sees potential catalysts this year, such as FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine BLA and advancements in its early-stage pipeline.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Novavax shows promising revenue growth and profitability improvements in the TTM period, signaling operational turnaround potential. However, the balance sheet's negative equity and high leverage, coupled with negative cash flows, pose significant financial risks. Sustained profitability and improved cash flow management are critical for long-term stability.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Novavax's TTM revenue showed growth with a revenue increase from $682.2 million to $1.25 billion. The gross profit margin improved significantly, reaching 88.3%, and the net profit margin turned positive at 38.1%, reflecting strong profitability improvements. However, historical EBIT and EBITDA margins were negative, indicating past operational challenges. Recent improvements in these metrics suggest a positive turnaround, though sustainability remains to be seen.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity in the TTM period, leading to a concerning debt-to-equity ratio. Total assets decreased, indicating potential liquidity concerns. The equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, highlighting financial instability. Despite improved net income, the company's liabilities exceed its assets, which is a risk factor.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Free cash flow deteriorated in the TTM period, with a significant negative position of $196.6 million. Operating cash flow was also negative, indicating ongoing cash burn. Financing activities have provided some relief. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was unfavorable, but improvements in net income provide some optimism. Continuous negative free cash flow suggests cash management challenges.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.25B682.16M556.38M1.60B1.15B475.60M
Gross Profit
1.11B479.42M212.61M696.31M1.13B-271.43M
EBIT
411.41M-248.93M-566.51M-644.74M-1.69B-416.72M
EBITDA
536.50M-108.04M-487.39M-604.71M-1.68B-398.23M
Net Income Common Stockholders
478.70M-187.50M-545.06M-657.94M-1.74B-427.50M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
731.48M923.12M568.50M1.34B1.52B711.05M
Total Assets
1.29B1.56B1.80B2.26B2.58B1.58B
Total Debt
228.66M230.42M229.08M549.78M453.99M322.04M
Net Debt
-34.68M-299.81M-339.42M-787.10M-1.06B-231.36M
Total Liabilities
1.37B2.18B2.51B2.89B2.93B955.27M
Stockholders Equity
-75.64M-623.84M-716.93M-634.08M-351.67M627.21M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-196.56M-100.32M-772.77M-508.92M265.46M-97.16M
Operating Cash Flow
-189.21M-87.26M-713.97M-415.94M322.95M-42.54M
Investing Cash Flow
-270.11M-204.04M-58.81M-92.98M100.15M-377.78M
Financing Cash Flow
247.64M260.58M4.47M324.99M461.71M984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price7.09
Price Trends
50DMA
6.63
Positive
100DMA
7.37
Negative
200DMA
8.83
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.15
Positive
RSI
51.08
Neutral
STOCH
39.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.12, above the 50-day MA of 6.63, and below the 200-day MA of 8.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Risk Analysis

Novavax disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novavax reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Novavax Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$961.42M4.4834.46%799.36%
67
Neutral
$1.17B2.6730.06%25.92%
62
Neutral
$693.22M-40.13%-3.08%
62
Neutral
$1.80B-5.78%25.50%64.63%
56
Neutral
$901.42M-15.59%-35.41%-12.26%
54
Neutral
$5.38B3.40-45.06%3.28%16.75%-0.02%
42
Neutral
$987.42M-51.85%0.71%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NVAX
Novavax
7.09
-7.96
-52.89%
AVXL
Anavex Life Sciences
8.20
4.47
119.84%
CVAC
CureVac
4.07
0.07
1.75%
ABCL
AbCellera Biologics
3.23
-0.10
-3.00%
PHVS
Pharvaris
17.05
-1.05
-5.80%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
35.56
-4.13
-10.41%

Novavax Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Novavax Reports Promising Phase 3 Vaccine Trial Results
Positive
Jun 11, 2025

On June 11, 2025, Novavax announced promising results from the initial cohort of its Phase 3 trial for the COVID-19-Influenza Combination (CIC) and stand-alone influenza vaccine candidates. Both vaccines demonstrated robust immune responses and were well tolerated, showing potential for further development and partnerships. The trial, involving approximately 2,000 adults aged 65 and older, compared these candidates to licensed vaccines Nuvaxovid and Fluzone HD, with results indicating similar immunogenicity and safety profiles. These findings support Novavax’s strategy to pursue partnering opportunities and advance its vaccine programs.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Novavax Eliminates COO Position, Trizzino to Consult
Neutral
May 27, 2025

On May 27, 2025, Novavax, Inc. announced the elimination of the Chief Operating Officer position, resulting in the termination of John Trizzino’s employment effective June 20, 2025. Following his departure, Mr. Trizzino will continue to provide consulting services to the company until December 31, 2025, under a new consulting agreement. The separation agreement includes a lump sum payment and COBRA premium coverage for Mr. Trizzino, while the consulting agreement ensures a monthly fee and continued vesting of his equity awards.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Novavax’s COVID-19 Vaccine Gains FDA Approval
Positive
May 19, 2025

On May 16, 2025, Novavax announced that the FDA approved its Biologics License Application for Nuvaxovid™, a COVID-19 vaccine for adults 65 and older and individuals 12-64 with high-risk conditions. This approval triggered a $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi Pasteur Inc. and requires a new Phase 4 trial for individuals aged 50-64 without high-risk conditions. Novavax plans to deliver the 2025-2026 vaccine formula in the U.S. this fall, pending FDA strain recommendations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Novavax Expands Board, Appoints Charles W. Newton
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025

On April 25, 2025, Novavax, Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from eight to nine members by appointing Charles W. Newton as a Class III director. Mr. Newton will serve until the company’s 2025 annual stockholders meeting and is eligible for compensation under the company’s Non-Employee Director Compensation Policy, which includes cash and equity grants. The Board determined Mr. Newton is independent under Nasdaq listing standards, and he will enter into the company’s standard indemnification agreement.

Product-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Novavax’s Biologics License Application Nears Approval
Neutral
Apr 23, 2025

On April 23, 2025, Novavax announced that their Biologics License Application is considered approvable by the FDA, following discussions up to April 1. The FDA has requested additional clinical data as a post-marketing commitment, and Novavax plans to address this request promptly to secure approval.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.