Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.09B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.78
• Revenue Growth: 20.27%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.25
• Shares Outstanding: 162,499,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,629,664
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,465,685
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.79
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.16
• 1Y Price Target: $11.25
• Price Target Upside: 68.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.06B

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▲(12.11% Upside)

Novavax's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its weak financial performance and bearish technical indicators. While the valuation appears attractive, the financial instability and negative market momentum overshadow potential gains. The earnings call provided some positive strategic insights, but the significant financial challenges remain a concern.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

The expansion of the Sanofi partnership secures significant milestone payments, enhancing Novavax's revenue streams and market presence.

Cost Reduction Efforts

Substantial cost reductions improve financial stability and operational efficiency, positioning Novavax for sustainable growth.

Revenue Framework Update

The updated revenue framework reflects increased demand and successful collaborations, indicating potential for future growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can strain financial resources, limiting flexibility and increasing risk, potentially impacting long-term viability.

Declining Revenue

Significant revenue decline suggests challenges in maintaining market share and product demand, affecting long-term financial health.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow indicates difficulties in funding operations and investments, posing risks to financial sustainability and growth.

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. The company operates primarily in the biotechnology sector and is renowned for its research and development efforts in vaccine technology, particularly for respiratory viruses, including COVID-19. Novavax's core products include its NVX-CoV2373 vaccine candidate for COVID-19, which utilizes recombinant nanoparticle technology, as well as other vaccine candidates for diseases such as influenza and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus).

How the Company Makes Money

Novavax generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the development and commercialization of its vaccine candidates. The company earns money by securing funding through government grants and partnerships, especially in response to global health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, where it received substantial financial support from initiatives like Operation Warp Speed. Additionally, Novavax generates revenue from the sale of its vaccines once they receive regulatory approval and are distributed globally. Key partnerships with governmental and non-governmental organizations, along with collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, enhance its revenue potential by expanding the reach of its products and sharing development costs. The company may also explore licensing its technology and products, creating additional revenue opportunities.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novavax's financial performance is concerning, with high leverage, negative equity, and declining revenue and cash flow growth rates. Despite a strong gross profit margin, the negative revenue growth and financial instability pose significant risks.

Income Statement

Novavax's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a strong gross profit margin of 88.35% and a net profit margin of 39.20%, suggesting profitability in recent periods. However, the revenue growth rate is negative at -130.4%, indicating a significant decline in revenue. Historical data shows fluctuating margins and inconsistent revenue growth, highlighting volatility in financial performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity and a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.07 in the TTM period, indicating high leverage. The return on equity is negative, reflecting losses in equity value. These factors suggest potential financial risk and a need for improved financial management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating that cash flow is just covering net income. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate of -39.56% suggests declining cash generation capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.06B	682.16M	556.38M	1.60B	197.58M	22.39M
Gross Profit	978.15M	479.42M	212.61M	696.31M	197.58M	22.39M
EBITDA	410.00M	-108.04M	-487.39M	-604.71M	-1.68B	-398.23M
Net Income	341.75M	-187.50M	-545.06M	-657.94M	-1.74B	-418.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.18B	1.56B	1.80B	2.26B	2.58B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	762.89M	923.12M	568.50M	1.34B	1.52B	711.05M
Total Debt	251.14M	230.42M	229.08M	549.78M	453.99M	467.98M
Total Liabilities	1.34B	2.18B	2.51B	2.89B	2.93B	955.27M
Stockholders Equity	-156.67M	-623.84M	-716.93M	-634.08M	-351.67M	627.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-384.43M	-100.32M	-772.77M	-508.92M	265.46M	-97.16M
Operating Cash Flow	-378.32M	-87.26M	-713.97M	-415.94M	322.95M	-42.54M
Investing Cash Flow	45.26M	-204.04M	-58.81M	-92.98M	100.15M	-377.78M
Financing Cash Flow	30.92M	260.58M	4.47M	324.99M	461.71M	984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.24, below the 50-day MA of 8.13, and below the 200-day MA of 7.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	70 Outperform	$1.19B	5.52	39.21%	―	687.36%	―
PFE	68 Neutral	$146.24B	14.99	10.59%	6.69%	4.44%	128.96%
BNTX	53 Neutral	$23.98B	―	-2.94%	―	7.04%	-25.24%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
MRNA	50 Neutral	$9.67B	―	-29.32%	―	-56.00%	-38.95%
NVAX	45 Neutral	$1.09B	3.78	―	―	20.27%	―
ABCL	44 Neutral	$1.08B	―	-16.81%	―	7.16%	3.95%

Novavax Corporate Events

Novavax Reports Q3 2025 Earnings and Strategic Progress

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company specializing in the development of vaccines using its proprietary technology platform, including protein-based nanoparticles and the Matrix-M adjuvant, aimed at addressing global health challenges. In its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, Novavax reported a total revenue of $70 million, marking a decrease from the previous year, while highlighting key strategic partnerships and advancements in its vaccine pipeline. The company has successfully executed its partnership with Sanofi, achieving $225 million in milestones year-to-date, and has seen positive developments in its Nuvaxovid vaccine in combination with flu vaccines. Novavax also reported significant cost savings from consolidating its Maryland facilities and has raised its full-year 2025 revenue framework. Despite a net loss of $202 million for the quarter, the company continues to focus on R&D and partnerships to drive long-term growth and profitability. Looking ahead, Novavax remains committed to leveraging its technology platform and strategic collaborations to enhance its market position and financial performance.

Novavax’s Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Optimistic Outlook

Novavax’s Q3 2025 Earnings Call: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook

Novavax Transfers Nuvaxovid Rights to Sanofi

On November 3, 2025, the FDA approved the transfer of the marketing authorization for Novavax‘s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid™, to Sanofi Pasteur Inc. This transfer, part of a collaboration and license agreement, triggered a $25 million milestone payment to Novavax, with the company expecting the payment in the first quarter of 2026. This move aligns with Novavax’s strategy to secure non-dilutive capital, having already secured $225 million in 2025. The transfer allows Sanofi to manage the commercial and regulatory activities for Nuvaxovid in the U.S., potentially enhancing its market reach.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Enters Lease Agreement with AstraZeneca

On October 17, 2025, Novavax, Inc. entered into an agreement with AstraZeneca to assign the lease of its Gaithersburg, MD facility, resulting in a total of $59.8 million payable by AstraZeneca. This transaction, along with related asset and parcel sales, is expected to lead to non-cash impairment charges of between $96 million and $98 million in the third quarter of 2025, though it will not impact Novavax’s cash flow. The move signifies a strategic shift for Novavax as it relocates its headquarters and restructures its asset portfolio, potentially impacting its operational focus and financial standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Sell with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Transfers EU Vaccine Rights to Sanofi

On October 1, 2025, the European Commission approved the transfer of the marketing authorization for Novavax‘s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, from Novavax CZ to Sanofi Winthrop Industrie. This transfer, part of the company’s collaboration and license agreement with Sanofi, triggered a $25 million milestone payment to Novavax, expected in the first quarter of 2026. This move allows Sanofi to take full responsibility for commercial and regulatory activities in the EU, furthering Novavax’s strategy of ensuring global access to its vaccine. The agreement also includes potential future milestone payments and royalties for Novavax, highlighting the ongoing collaboration with Sanofi and its impact on Novavax’s operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Gains FDA Approval for Nuvaxovid Vaccine

On August 27, 2025, Novavax announced that the FDA approved its Nuvaxovid 2025-2026 formula, a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, for adults 65 and older and individuals 12-64 with underlying conditions. The approval includes extending the vaccine’s shelf life to six months and requires postmarketing studies to assess safety and post-vaccination syndrome. This approval positions Novavax as the only provider of a non-mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. for the 2025-2026 season, potentially impacting its market presence and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Completes $225M Convertible Notes Transaction

On August 27, 2025, Novavax, Inc. completed a series of privately negotiated exchange and subscription transactions, issuing $225 million in Convertible Senior Notes due 2031. This financial maneuver involved exchanging existing notes and issuing new ones for cash, with the aim of optimizing the company’s capital structure. The notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, offer a conversion option into common stock, potentially affecting the company’s stock issuance and market dynamics. These transactions reflect Novavax’s strategic financial management efforts to enhance its liquidity and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Announces $225M Convertible Senior Notes Issuance

On August 20, 2025, Novavax announced it had entered into agreements to issue $225 million in 4.625% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031, replacing existing 5.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 and raising new capital. This refinancing extends the maturity of most of its existing debt, improving the company’s capital structure and potentially impacting the market price of its stock and notes. The transactions are expected to close on or about August 27, 2025, with the company planning to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Earnings Call: Milestones and Challenges

The recent earnings call for Novavax presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting both positive developments and ongoing challenges. The company celebrated significant milestone payments and successful cost reduction strategies, yet faced hurdles such as a decline in total revenue and a reliance on partner performance for future profitability.

Novavax Reports Strong Earnings Amid Strategic Shifts

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company specializing in the development and commercialization of vaccines to address global health challenges, utilizing its proprietary recombinant protein-based nanoparticle technology and Matrix-M adjuvant. The company operates within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, focusing on vaccine innovation and strategic partnerships.