Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.21B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.58
• Revenue Growth: 25.92%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 2.93
• Shares Outstanding: 161,970,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,390,923
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,289,745
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -15.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -72.56
• 1Y Price Target: $11.25
• Price Target Upside: 51.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▲(7.38%Upside)

Novavax's stock score is driven by strong revenue growth and profitability improvements, supported by undervaluation based on the P/E ratio. Technical analysis indicates moderate positive momentum. Despite these strengths, financial risks related to negative equity and cash flow challenges constrain the score. The earnings call and recent FDA approval further bolster the outlook, though regulatory and market penetration challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Potential Market Opportunity

The potential combination of Novavax's Covid vaccine with high-dose flu vaccines represents a significant potential upside for Novavax.

Regulatory Approval

FDA approval of Nuvaxovid for individuals 65 years or older and those 12-64 with underlying conditions triggers a $175M milestone from Sanofi.

Vaccine Advantages

The Novavax vaccine resulted in about half as many negative symptoms compared to current mRNA vaccines, which could be advantageous in the Covid vaccination landscape.

Negative Factors

Regulatory Challenges

The request for another randomized clinical trial for Nuvaxovid increases downside risk for potential milestones/royalties.

Regulatory Environment

The less favorable regulatory outlook for the COVID/Flu combo regimen is a setback and a likely impediment to meaningful business development.

Uncertainty and Market Concerns

Uncertainty remains about the commercial setup heading into the 2025/2026 vaccination season and impact to development/approval milestones.

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company that focuses on the development and commercialization of innovative vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. Operating primarily in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors, Novavax leverages its proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology platform to produce vaccines that address a variety of diseases, including COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The company's core products include its COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, and other vaccine candidates in various stages of development.

How the Company Makes Money

Novavax generates revenue primarily through the development, production, and sale of its vaccine products. A significant portion of its income is derived from government contracts, grants, and advance purchase agreements for its COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, which was distributed globally during the pandemic. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, research institutions, and governments to accelerate vaccine development and expand its market reach. Additionally, Novavax may receive milestone payments and royalties from licensing its proprietary technologies and vaccine candidates to other entities. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as regulatory approvals, production capacity, and the global demand for its vaccines.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novavax shows promising revenue growth and profitability improvements in the TTM period with a positive net profit margin. However, the balance sheet's negative equity and high leverage, coupled with negative cash flows, pose significant financial risks. Sustained profitability and improved cash flow management are critical for long-term stability.

Income Statement

Novavax's TTM revenue showed growth with a revenue increase from $682.2 million to $1.25 billion. The gross profit margin improved significantly, reaching 88.3%, and the net profit margin turned positive at 38.1%, reflecting strong profitability improvements. However, historical EBIT and EBITDA margins were negative, indicating past operational challenges. Recent improvements in these metrics suggest a positive turnaround, though sustainability remains to be seen.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity in the TTM period, leading to a concerning debt-to-equity ratio. Total assets decreased, indicating potential liquidity concerns. The equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, highlighting financial instability. Despite improved net income, the company's liabilities exceed its assets, which is a risk factor.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow deteriorated in the TTM period, with a significant negative position of $196.6 million. Operating cash flow was also negative, indicating ongoing cash burn. Financing activities have provided some relief. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was unfavorable, but improvements in net income provide some optimism. Continuous negative free cash flow suggests cash management challenges.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.25B	682.16M	556.38M	1.60B	1.15B	475.60M
	Gross Profit
1.11B	479.42M	212.61M	696.31M	1.13B	-271.43M
	EBIT
411.41M	-248.93M	-566.51M	-644.74M	-1.69B	-416.72M
	EBITDA
536.50M	-108.04M	-487.39M	-604.71M	-1.68B	-398.23M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
478.70M	-187.50M	-545.06M	-657.94M	-1.74B	-427.50M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
578.93M	923.12M	568.50M	1.34B	1.52B	711.05M
	Total Assets
1.86B	1.56B	1.80B	2.26B	2.58B	1.58B
	Total Debt
280.63M	230.42M	229.08M	549.78M	453.99M	322.04M
	Net Debt
-298.29M	-299.81M	-339.42M	-787.10M	-1.06B	-231.36M
	Total Liabilities
2.57B	2.18B	2.51B	2.89B	2.93B	955.27M
	Stockholders Equity
-716.93M	-623.84M	-716.93M	-634.08M	-351.67M	627.21M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-196.56M	-100.32M	-772.77M	-508.92M	265.46M	-97.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
-189.21M	-87.26M	-713.97M	-415.94M	322.95M	-42.54M
	Investing Cash Flow
-270.11M	-204.04M	-58.81M	-92.98M	100.15M	-377.78M
	Financing Cash Flow
247.64M	260.58M	4.47M	324.99M	461.71M	984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.45
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.97, above the 50-day MA of 6.61, and below the 200-day MA of 8.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	76 Outperform	$992.94M	4.86	34.46%	―	799.36%	―
NVAX	64 Neutral	$1.21B	2.81	30.06%	―	25.92%	―
AVXL	62 Neutral	$706.03M	―	-40.13%	―	―	-3.08%
IMCR	62 Neutral	$1.87B	―	-5.78%	―	25.50%	64.63%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.31B	3.28	-45.10%	2.80%	16.76%	0.02%
ABCL	50 Neutral	$728.30M	―	-15.59%	―	-35.41%	-12.26%
PHVS	42 Neutral	$914.39M	―	-51.85%	―	―	0.71%

Novavax Corporate Events

Novavax Eliminates COO Position, Trizzino to Consult

On May 27, 2025, Novavax, Inc. announced the elimination of the Chief Operating Officer position, resulting in the termination of John Trizzino’s employment effective June 20, 2025. Following his departure, Mr. Trizzino will continue to provide consulting services to the company until December 31, 2025, under a new consulting agreement. The separation agreement includes a lump sum payment and COBRA premium coverage for Mr. Trizzino, while the consulting agreement ensures a monthly fee and continued vesting of his equity awards.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax’s COVID-19 Vaccine Gains FDA Approval

On May 16, 2025, Novavax announced that the FDA approved its Biologics License Application for Nuvaxovid™, a COVID-19 vaccine for adults 65 and older and individuals 12-64 with high-risk conditions. This approval triggered a $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi Pasteur Inc. and requires a new Phase 4 trial for individuals aged 50-64 without high-risk conditions. Novavax plans to deliver the 2025-2026 vaccine formula in the U.S. this fall, pending FDA strain recommendations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Expands Board, Appoints Charles W. Newton

On April 25, 2025, Novavax, Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from eight to nine members by appointing Charles W. Newton as a Class III director. Mr. Newton will serve until the company’s 2025 annual stockholders meeting and is eligible for compensation under the company’s Non-Employee Director Compensation Policy, which includes cash and equity grants. The Board determined Mr. Newton is independent under Nasdaq listing standards, and he will enter into the company’s standard indemnification agreement.

Novavax’s Biologics License Application Nears Approval

On April 23, 2025, Novavax announced that their Biologics License Application is considered approvable by the FDA, following discussions up to April 1. The FDA has requested additional clinical data as a post-marketing commitment, and Novavax plans to address this request promptly to secure approval.

Novavax Announces Board Changes and Strategic Shift

On March 10, 2025, Novavax announced the resignation of James F. Young, Ph.D. from its Board of Directors, with no disagreements cited. Margaret G. McGlynn was appointed as the new Chairperson, and John W. Shiver, Ph.D. joined as a Class III director and member of the Research and Development Committee. Dr. Shiver brings over 30 years of experience in vaccine development, enhancing the board’s expertise. This transition marks a strategic shift for Novavax, as it continues to focus on partnerships and leveraging its technology platform for growth.

Novavax Faces Contract Termination with Canadian Government

On March 7, 2025, Novavax received a notice terminating its advanced purchase agreement with the Canadian government due to the company’s failure to obtain regulatory approval for its COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2024. As a result, Novavax will recognize $576 million as product revenue in the first quarter of 2025, but must refund $28 million in advanced payments to Canada. Additionally, a proposed memorandum of understanding related to in-country commitments is no longer feasible, allowing Novavax to release related funds.