Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.17B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.60
• Revenue Growth: 25.92%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 40
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 2.93
• Shares Outstanding: 161,970,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,348,517
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,432,919
• PEG Ratio: -0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $11.25
• Price Target Upside: 52.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(15.18%Upside)

Novavax's stock shows potential with strong revenue growth and profitability improvements, supported by strategic partnerships and recent FDA approval. However, financial instability, regulatory challenges, and market penetration issues weigh on the stock. Valuation metrics suggest upside potential, yet technical indicators advise caution.

Positive Factors

Partnership Milestone

This approval does trigger the $175M milestone from Sanofi which was seen as the most significant near-term risk from the delay.

Product Advantage

The Novavax vaccine resulted in about half as many negative symptoms compared to current mRNA vaccines, which could be advantageous in the Covid vaccination landscape.

Regulatory Approval

NVAX shares are trading up +11% after the FDA approved the BLA submission for Nuvaxovid in individuals 65 years or older and individuals 12-64 who have at least one underlying condition that puts them at higher risk for severe outcomes.

Negative Factors

Market Valuation

Current share levels are believed to overvalue the discounted forecasts of associated royalty revenue streams, leading to an underweight rating.

Regulatory Challenges

The request for another randomized clinical trial for Nuvaxovid increases downside risk for potential milestones/royalties.

Regulatory Setbacks

The less favorable regulatory outlook for the COVID/Flu combo regimen is a setback and a likely impediment to meaningful business development.

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate. It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics. It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Novavax generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccines to governments and health organizations around the world. The company earns money from product sales, government contracts, and grants, as well as collaborations and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. A significant portion of its revenue is derived from sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, particularly through agreements with various countries and international health agencies. Additionally, partnerships with organizations such as the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and funding from government entities have been crucial in supporting Novavax's research and development efforts, contributing to its overall earnings.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novavax is facing significant financial challenges, with persistent losses and negative equity. While there is some revenue growth, the company's profitability and liquidity remain major concerns. The cash flow situation is slightly improved, but still negative, casting doubts on long-term sustainability without strategic financial restructuring or profitability improvements.

Income Statement

Novavax has shown some revenue improvement from 2023 to 2024, with a growth rate of approximately 22.58%. However, the company is still struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins. Gross profit margin is reasonably positive at around 70.26% for 2024. The persistent losses suggest challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity. Despite an improvement in cash reserves, overall liabilities exceed total assets, leading to a precarious financial position.

Cash Flow

Novavax's cash flow situation shows some improvement, with operating cash flow reducing in negativity, but free cash flow remains negative. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not meaningful given the negative net income. Financing activities have provided a cash influx, but sustainability is a concern.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
682.16M	556.38M	1.60B	1.15B	475.60M
	Gross Profit
479.42M	212.61M	696.31M	1.13B	-271.43M
	EBIT
-248.93M	-566.51M	-644.74M	-1.69B	-416.72M
	EBITDA
-108.04M	-487.39M	-604.71M	-1.68B	-398.23M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-187.50M	-545.06M	-657.94M	-1.74B	-427.50M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
923.12M	568.50M	1.34B	1.52B	711.05M
	Total Assets
1.56B	1.80B	2.26B	2.58B	1.58B
	Total Debt
230.42M	229.08M	549.78M	453.99M	322.04M
	Net Debt
-299.81M	-339.42M	-787.10M	-1.06B	-231.36M
	Total Liabilities
2.18B	2.51B	2.89B	2.93B	955.27M
	Stockholders Equity
-623.84M	-716.93M	-634.08M	-351.67M	627.21M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-100.32M	-772.77M	-508.92M	265.46M	-97.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
-87.26M	-713.97M	-415.94M	322.95M	-42.54M
	Investing Cash Flow
-204.04M	-58.81M	-92.98M	100.15M	-377.78M
	Financing Cash Flow
260.58M	4.47M	324.99M	461.71M	984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.64, above the 50-day MA of 6.71, and below the 200-day MA of 9.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	76 Outperform	$979.43M	4.79	34.46%	―	799.36%	―
NVAX	64 Neutral	$1.17B	2.73	30.06%	―	25.92%	―
IMCR	63 Neutral	$1.61B	―	-5.78%	―	25.50%	64.63%
AVXL	62 Neutral	$629.19M	―	-40.13%	―	―	-3.08%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.14B	3.23	-45.01%	2.85%	17.55%	-0.69%
ABCL	47 Neutral	$591.00M	―	-15.59%	―	-35.41%	-12.26%
PHVS	42 Neutral	$871.35M	―	-51.85%	―	―	0.71%

Novavax Corporate Events

Novavax’s COVID-19 Vaccine Gains FDA Approval

On May 16, 2025, Novavax announced that the FDA approved its Biologics License Application for Nuvaxovid™, a COVID-19 vaccine for adults 65 and older and individuals 12-64 with high-risk conditions. This approval triggered a $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi Pasteur Inc. and requires a new Phase 4 trial for individuals aged 50-64 without high-risk conditions. Novavax plans to deliver the 2025-2026 vaccine formula in the U.S. this fall, pending FDA strain recommendations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Expands Board, Appoints Charles W. Newton

On April 25, 2025, Novavax, Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from eight to nine members by appointing Charles W. Newton as a Class III director. Mr. Newton will serve until the company’s 2025 annual stockholders meeting and is eligible for compensation under the company’s Non-Employee Director Compensation Policy, which includes cash and equity grants. The Board determined Mr. Newton is independent under Nasdaq listing standards, and he will enter into the company’s standard indemnification agreement.

Novavax’s Biologics License Application Nears Approval

On April 23, 2025, Novavax announced that their Biologics License Application is considered approvable by the FDA, following discussions up to April 1. The FDA has requested additional clinical data as a post-marketing commitment, and Novavax plans to address this request promptly to secure approval.

Novavax Announces Board Changes and Strategic Shift

On March 10, 2025, Novavax announced the resignation of James F. Young, Ph.D. from its Board of Directors, with no disagreements cited. Margaret G. McGlynn was appointed as the new Chairperson, and John W. Shiver, Ph.D. joined as a Class III director and member of the Research and Development Committee. Dr. Shiver brings over 30 years of experience in vaccine development, enhancing the board’s expertise. This transition marks a strategic shift for Novavax, as it continues to focus on partnerships and leveraging its technology platform for growth.

Novavax Faces Contract Termination with Canadian Government

On March 7, 2025, Novavax received a notice terminating its advanced purchase agreement with the Canadian government due to the company’s failure to obtain regulatory approval for its COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2024. As a result, Novavax will recognize $576 million as product revenue in the first quarter of 2025, but must refund $28 million in advanced payments to Canada. Additionally, a proposed memorandum of understanding related to in-country commitments is no longer feasible, allowing Novavax to release related funds.

Novavax to Present Strategic Plans at Health Conference

On March 4, 2025, Novavax will update investors at the TD Cowen 45th Annual Health Care Conference about its strategic and business plans, including the transition of COVID-19 vaccine commercialization to Sanofi for the 2025-2026 season. The company aims to advance its vaccine pipeline and expand partnerships, but faces challenges such as regulatory approvals and manufacturing constraints, which could impact its financial and operational performance.