Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.76M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.47
• Revenue Growth: 25.92%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 39
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 161,970,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,131,086
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,763,707
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.17
• 1Y Price Target: $9.80
• Price Target Upside: 45.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▲(11.11%Upside)

Novavax's overall stock score reflects strong valuation and positive corporate events, tempered by financial instability and neutral technical indicators. The company's strategic initiatives and recent FDA approval provide a positive outlook, but financial and regulatory challenges pose risks.

Positive Factors

Partnership Milestones

Novavax is eligible for milestones/royalties through partnerships with Sanofi.

Vaccine Efficacy

Positive results have been reported from the recently initiated Phase 4 Nuvaxovid efficacy trial.

Negative Factors

Market Challenges

Novavax faces an uphill battle to find a partner willing to support large studies without a meaningfully differentiated vaccine offering.

Sales Projections

Near-term sales projections for Nuvaxovid in EU and other regions have been lowered due to long-term Pfizer agreements in these areas.

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company that focuses on the development and commercialization of innovative vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. Operating primarily in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors, Novavax leverages its proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology platform to produce vaccines that address a variety of diseases, including COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The company's core products include its COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, and other vaccine candidates in various stages of development.

How the Company Makes Money

Novavax generates revenue primarily through the development, production, and sale of its vaccine products. A significant portion of its income is derived from government contracts, grants, and advance purchase agreements for its COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, which was distributed globally during the pandemic. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, research institutions, and governments to accelerate vaccine development and expand its market reach. Additionally, Novavax may receive milestone payments and royalties from licensing its proprietary technologies and vaccine candidates to other entities. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as regulatory approvals, production capacity, and the global demand for its vaccines.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novavax shows promising revenue growth and profitability improvements in the TTM period, signaling operational turnaround potential. However, the balance sheet's negative equity and high leverage, coupled with negative cash flows, pose significant financial risks. Sustained profitability and improved cash flow management are critical for long-term stability.

Income Statement

Novavax's TTM revenue showed growth with a revenue increase from $682.2 million to $1.25 billion. The gross profit margin improved significantly, reaching 88.3%, and the net profit margin turned positive at 38.1%, reflecting strong profitability improvements. However, historical EBIT and EBITDA margins were negative, indicating past operational challenges. Recent improvements in these metrics suggest a positive turnaround, though sustainability remains to be seen.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity in the TTM period, leading to a concerning debt-to-equity ratio. Total assets decreased, indicating potential liquidity concerns. The equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, highlighting financial instability. Despite improved net income, the company's liabilities exceed its assets, which is a risk factor.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow deteriorated in the TTM period, with a significant negative position of $196.6 million. Operating cash flow was also negative, indicating ongoing cash burn. Financing activities have provided some relief. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was unfavorable, but improvements in net income provide some optimism. Continuous negative free cash flow suggests cash management challenges.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	682.16M	556.38M	1.60B	1.15B	475.60M
Gross Profit	479.42M	212.61M	696.31M	1.13B	-271.43M
EBITDA	-108.04M	-487.39M	-604.71M	-1.68B	-398.23M
Net Income	-187.50M	-545.06M	-657.94M	-1.74B	-427.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.56B	1.80B	2.26B	2.58B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	923.12M	568.50M	1.34B	1.52B	711.05M
Total Debt	230.42M	229.08M	549.78M	453.99M	322.04M
Total Liabilities	2.18B	2.51B	2.89B	2.93B	955.27M
Stockholders Equity	-623.84M	-716.93M	-634.08M	-351.67M	627.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-100.32M	-772.77M	-508.92M	265.46M	-97.16M
Operating Cash Flow	-87.26M	-713.97M	-415.94M	322.95M	-42.54M
Investing Cash Flow	-204.04M	-58.81M	-92.98M	100.15M	-377.78M
Financing Cash Flow	260.58M	4.47M	324.99M	461.71M	984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.05, below the 50-day MA of 6.95, and below the 200-day MA of 7.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	76 Outperform	$1.22B	5.96	34.46%	―	799.36%	―
NVAX	66 Neutral	$1.06B	2.47	30.06%	―	25.92%	―
AVXL	62 Neutral	$956.67M	―	-40.13%	―	―	-3.08%
ABCL	58 Neutral	$1.27B	―	-15.59%	―	-35.41%	-12.26%
Sector *	57 Neutral	£5.17B	5.82	-65.04%	2.28%	32.38%	-7.27%
IMCR	51 Neutral	$1.66B	―	-5.78%	―	25.50%	64.63%
PHVS	42 Neutral	$1.28B	―	-51.85%	―	―	0.71%

Novavax Corporate Events

Novavax Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On June 20, 2025, Novavax, Inc. held its Annual Meeting where stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of three Class III directors, approval of executive compensation, and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor were all passed, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s current management and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Sell with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Reports Promising Phase 3 Vaccine Trial Results

On June 11, 2025, Novavax announced promising results from the initial cohort of its Phase 3 trial for the COVID-19-Influenza Combination (CIC) and stand-alone influenza vaccine candidates. Both vaccines demonstrated robust immune responses and were well tolerated, showing potential for further development and partnerships. The trial, involving approximately 2,000 adults aged 65 and older, compared these candidates to licensed vaccines Nuvaxovid and Fluzone HD, with results indicating similar immunogenicity and safety profiles. These findings support Novavax’s strategy to pursue partnering opportunities and advance its vaccine programs.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Eliminates COO Position, Trizzino to Consult

On May 27, 2025, Novavax, Inc. announced the elimination of the Chief Operating Officer position, resulting in the termination of John Trizzino’s employment effective June 20, 2025. Following his departure, Mr. Trizzino will continue to provide consulting services to the company until December 31, 2025, under a new consulting agreement. The separation agreement includes a lump sum payment and COBRA premium coverage for Mr. Trizzino, while the consulting agreement ensures a monthly fee and continued vesting of his equity awards.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax’s COVID-19 Vaccine Gains FDA Approval

On May 16, 2025, Novavax announced that the FDA approved its Biologics License Application for Nuvaxovid™, a COVID-19 vaccine for adults 65 and older and individuals 12-64 with high-risk conditions. This approval triggered a $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi Pasteur Inc. and requires a new Phase 4 trial for individuals aged 50-64 without high-risk conditions. Novavax plans to deliver the 2025-2026 vaccine formula in the U.S. this fall, pending FDA strain recommendations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.