Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.81
• Revenue Growth: 20.27%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.25
• Shares Outstanding: 162,499,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,213,170
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,750,741
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.79
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.16
• 1Y Price Target: $10.00
• Price Target Upside: 53.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.06B

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.00 ▲(7.20% Upside)

Novavax faces significant financial challenges, with high leverage and declining revenue growth. While strategic partnerships and asset restructuring provide some optimism, the overall outlook remains cautious due to financial instability and bearish technical indicators.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

Expanding partnerships with Sanofi enhances Novavax's market reach and secures milestone payments, supporting long-term revenue growth.

Cost Reduction

Significant cost reductions improve financial health, allowing Novavax to focus resources on strategic initiatives and enhance profitability.

Revenue Framework Update

An increased revenue framework indicates strong demand for Novavax's technology and successful collaborations, supporting future growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Excessive leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting Novavax's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Declining Revenue

Significant revenue decline suggests challenges in product sales and market competitiveness, affecting long-term sustainability.

Negative Cash Flow Growth

Declining cash generation capabilities limit Novavax's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives, posing long-term financial risks.

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. The company operates primarily in the biotechnology sector and is renowned for its research and development efforts in vaccine technology, particularly for respiratory viruses, including COVID-19. Novavax's core products include its NVX-CoV2373 vaccine candidate for COVID-19, which utilizes recombinant nanoparticle technology, as well as other vaccine candidates for diseases such as influenza and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus).

How the Company Makes Money

Novavax generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the development and commercialization of its vaccine candidates. The company earns money by securing funding through government grants and partnerships, especially in response to global health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, where it received substantial financial support from initiatives like Operation Warp Speed. Additionally, Novavax generates revenue from the sale of its vaccines once they receive regulatory approval and are distributed globally. Key partnerships with governmental and non-governmental organizations, along with collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, enhance its revenue potential by expanding the reach of its products and sharing development costs. The company may also explore licensing its technology and products, creating additional revenue opportunities.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novavax's financial performance is concerning, with high leverage, negative equity, and declining revenue and cash flow growth rates. Despite a strong gross profit margin, the negative revenue growth and financial instability pose significant risks.

Income Statement

Novavax's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a strong gross profit margin of 88.35% and a net profit margin of 39.20%, suggesting profitability in recent periods. However, the revenue growth rate is negative at -130.4%, indicating a significant decline in revenue. Historical data shows fluctuating margins and inconsistent revenue growth, highlighting volatility in financial performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity and a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.07 in the TTM period, indicating high leverage. The return on equity is negative, reflecting losses in equity value. These factors suggest potential financial risk and a need for improved financial management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating that cash flow is just covering net income. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate of -39.56% suggests declining cash generation capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.06B	682.16M	556.38M	1.60B	197.58M	22.39M
Gross Profit	978.15M	479.42M	212.61M	696.31M	197.58M	22.39M
EBITDA	410.00M	-108.04M	-487.39M	-604.71M	-1.68B	-398.23M
Net Income	341.75M	-187.50M	-545.06M	-657.94M	-1.74B	-418.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.18B	1.56B	1.80B	2.26B	2.58B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	762.89M	923.12M	568.50M	1.34B	1.52B	711.05M
Total Debt	251.14M	230.42M	229.08M	549.78M	453.99M	467.98M
Total Liabilities	1.34B	2.18B	2.51B	2.89B	2.93B	955.27M
Stockholders Equity	-156.67M	-623.84M	-716.93M	-634.08M	-351.67M	627.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-384.43M	-100.32M	-772.77M	-508.92M	265.46M	-97.16M
Operating Cash Flow	-378.32M	-87.26M	-713.97M	-415.94M	322.95M	-42.54M
Investing Cash Flow	45.26M	-204.04M	-58.81M	-92.98M	100.15M	-377.78M
Financing Cash Flow	30.92M	260.58M	4.47M	324.99M	461.71M	984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.67, below the 50-day MA of 7.49, and below the 200-day MA of 7.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	70 Outperform	$1.09B	5.75	17.68%	―	-86.40%	30.72%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
VIR	50 Neutral	$901.53M	-1.70	-49.06%	―	-78.55%	7.74%
NVAX	47 Neutral	$1.06B	3.70	―	―	20.27%	―
ABCL	47 Neutral	$1.04B	-5.81	-16.81%	―	7.16%	3.95%
ORIC	43 Neutral	$888.19M	―	-39.73%	―	―	4.29%
SANA	33 Underperform	$1.33B	-4.92	-96.11%	―	―	31.16%

Novavax Corporate Events

Novavax Transfers Nuvaxovid Rights to Sanofi

On November 3, 2025, the FDA approved the transfer of the marketing authorization for Novavax‘s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid™, to Sanofi Pasteur Inc. This transfer, part of a collaboration and license agreement, triggered a $25 million milestone payment to Novavax, with the company expecting the payment in the first quarter of 2026. This move aligns with Novavax’s strategy to secure non-dilutive capital, having already secured $225 million in 2025. The transfer allows Sanofi to manage the commercial and regulatory activities for Nuvaxovid in the U.S., potentially enhancing its market reach.

Novavax Enters Lease Agreement with AstraZeneca

On October 17, 2025, Novavax, Inc. entered into an agreement with AstraZeneca to assign the lease of its Gaithersburg, MD facility, resulting in a total of $59.8 million payable by AstraZeneca. This transaction, along with related asset and parcel sales, is expected to lead to non-cash impairment charges of between $96 million and $98 million in the third quarter of 2025, though it will not impact Novavax’s cash flow. The move signifies a strategic shift for Novavax as it relocates its headquarters and restructures its asset portfolio, potentially impacting its operational focus and financial standing.

Novavax Transfers EU Vaccine Rights to Sanofi

On October 1, 2025, the European Commission approved the transfer of the marketing authorization for Novavax‘s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, from Novavax CZ to Sanofi Winthrop Industrie. This transfer, part of the company’s collaboration and license agreement with Sanofi, triggered a $25 million milestone payment to Novavax, expected in the first quarter of 2026. This move allows Sanofi to take full responsibility for commercial and regulatory activities in the EU, furthering Novavax’s strategy of ensuring global access to its vaccine. The agreement also includes potential future milestone payments and royalties for Novavax, highlighting the ongoing collaboration with Sanofi and its impact on Novavax’s operations and market positioning.