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Novavax (NVAX)
NASDAQ:NVAX
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Novavax
(NASDAQ:NVAX)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(3.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score reflects a strong technical setup and supportive valuation, plus constructive earnings-call guidance on liquidity and cost reductions. These positives are tempered by the most significant risk: weak underlying financial quality driven by negative equity and ongoing cash burn despite 2025 profitability.
Positive Factors
Revenue rebound & profitability
A sustained revenue rebound and reported full-year profitability in 2025 indicate the company can generate scalable product and partner revenue beyond earlier loss years. This demonstrates improved commercial traction and margin sustainability potential versus prior cyclical volatility, supporting multi‑year planning and reinvestment.
Strong cash position & nondilutive funding
A large cash balance and >$800M of nondilutive capital materially extend the firm's runway and limit near‑term dilution risk. This financial buffer supports R&D, milestone-driven programs and manufacturing transitions, enabling strategic optionality and negotiated partner timelines over the next several years.
High-value partnerships & commercialization reach
Depth of partnerships (Sanofi, Pfizer, distributors) shifts revenue toward recurring royalties, milestones and supply agreements, leveraging partners' global commercialization and regulatory capabilities. This de‑risks direct commercialization, supports long‑term revenue diversification and amplifies Matrix‑M adoption across indications.
Negative Factors
Negative shareholders' equity
Negative equity is a structural capital‑structure weakness that reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and solvency risk. Over time it can limit access to certain financing, raise covenant sensitivity, and constrain the company's ability to absorb shocks or fund large scale up‑front investments without partner support.
Sustained negative operating cash flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow despite reported profitability means earnings have not converted into cash. Continued cash burn creates ongoing funding reliance on partners, asset sales or credit, raising execution risk for multi‑year programs and making long‑term investment plans contingent on external cash sources.
Revenue composition & timing risk
A large portion of 2025 revenue was one‑time/noncash, masking underlying organic demand. Reliance on APA resolutions and milestone timing reduces predictability of future cash flows and makes sustainable top‑line growth dependent on partner execution and the timing of reimbursements and tech‑transfer milestones.
Novavax (NVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.3
Beta (1Y)1.81
Revenue Growth20.27%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees952
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding162,499,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,884,551
30 Day Avg. Volume4,827,120
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-8.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio-4.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.60Price Target Upside34.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$396.48M
Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNovavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate. It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics. It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
How the Company Makes MoneyNovavax generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the development and commercialization of its vaccine candidates. The company earns money by securing funding through government grants and partnerships, especially in response to global health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, where it received substantial financial support from initiatives like Operation Warp Speed. Additionally, Novavax generates revenue from the sale of its vaccines once they receive regulatory approval and are distributed globally. Key partnerships with governmental and non-governmental organizations, along with collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, enhance its revenue potential by expanding the reach of its products and sharing development costs. The company may also explore licensing its technology and products, creating additional revenue opportunities.
Novavax Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized substantial progress: robust revenue growth (driven partly by noncash APA resolution), profitability in both Q4 and full‑year 2025, strong cash and credit resources with a runway into 2028, meaningful cost reductions, and accelerating partnership momentum (notably Pfizer and Sanofi) that together present a clear path to lower run‑rate costs and potential future milestone and royalty upside. Key risks highlighted include reliance on partner execution for meaningful future revenue, certain milestone timing uncertainties (tech transfer and Phase III milestones with Sanofi), front‑loaded partner‑related spending in 2026, and broader regulatory uncertainties that could affect product uptake. Overall, the positives (growth, profitability, cash runway, partnerships, and disciplined cost cuts) substantially outweigh the listed risks, though future value remains contingent on partner success and regulatory developments.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Reported total revenue of $1.1 billion for full year 2025, a 65% year-over-year increase; fourth quarter 2025 revenue of $147 million, a 67% increase year-over-year.
Profitability Achieved
Reported positive operating and net income for both the full year and fourth quarter of 2025, marking a financial inflection point after prior losses.
Major Non‑dilutive Capital and Cash Position
Earned over $800 million in nondilutive capital in the last 18 months from partnerships; ended 2025 with $857 million in cash and accounts receivables and added $80 million of nondilutive cash in Q1 2026 (including $30M Pfizer upfront and $50M initial credit draw). Executed a new $330 million credit facility (initial draw $50M). Company believes it can fund operations into 2028 without new cash inflows.
Partnership Momentum and High‑Value Deals
Signed a Pfizer license agreement (Jan 2026) with a $30 million upfront payment and potential for up to $500 million in development and sales milestones across 2 disease areas plus multi‑decade royalties; achieved all $225 million in eligible Sanofi milestones in 2025; multiple MTAs and new collaborations including oncology and expansions with large pharma partners.
Commercial & Market Traction via Partners
Takeda delivered more than 12% market share for Nuvaxovid in Japan; Serum Institute distributed over 30 million doses of the R21/Matrix‑M malaria vaccine in Africa; Sanofi reported positive Phase I/II results for flu/COVID combination programs and is positioned for a full commercialization cycle in 2026–2027.
Substantial Cost Reductions and Run‑Rate Improvement
On a non‑GAAP basis net of partner reimbursements, combined R&D and SG&A were reduced by 42% (fourth quarter) and 53% (full year) versus prior year; fourth quarter cost reductions annualize to a ~$328 million run rate. 2026 guidance midpoint for non‑GAAP combined R&D and SG&A is $325 million, $225 million for 2027, and a target of $200 million or below for 2028 (approximately 50% decrease vs 2025).
Revenue Outperformance vs Framework
Non‑GAAP adjusted total revenues of $1.1 billion were approximately $50 million higher than the midpoint of the company's 2025 revenue framework, driven by additional Nuvaxovid product sales, Matrix‑M supply sales, royalties, and Sanofi R&D reimbursements.
Pipeline and R&D Progress
Advancing preclinical internal programs (C. diff, shingles, RSV triple combination) with the intent to move at least one asset into the clinic as early as 2027; ongoing Matrix‑M life‑cycle work and exploration of new Matrix‑based adjuvants, including non‑infectious disease areas such as oncology.
Manufacturing Rationalization Cash Monetization
Sold Czech Republic manufacturing site to Novo Nordisk for $200 million and transferred/sold a U.S. facility and equipment to AstraZeneca netting $60 million and resulting in future cash savings up to $230 million.
Negative Updates
Revenue Composition Includes Large Noncash Items
The 2025 revenue base includes ~$625 million of primarily noncash revenue recognition related to resolution of Nuvaxovid APA agreements (Canada and New Zealand), underscoring that a meaningful portion of growth was noncash and one‑time in nature.
Dependence on Partner Execution for Future Value
Key path to long‑term profitability and substantial future revenue hinges on partner outcomes—especially Sanofi's successful development, regulatory approvals and commercial execution of the flu/COVID combination and Sanofi's management of Nuvaxovid commercialization; company explicitly ties timing to Sanofi success.
Milestones Excluded or Timing Uncertain
Company excluded a potential $125 million Sanofi milestone (Phase III initiation) from its 2026 revenue framework and is not including a $75 million technology transfer milestone in 2026 revenue due to Sanofi’s request to complete a subset of tech transfer activities at a new U.S. manufacturing site, creating timing uncertainty.
Near‑term Non‑reimbursed Commitments and Front‑loaded Spend
2026 includes elevated near‑term costs related to completion of partner and APA obligations (non‑reimbursed Sanofi R&D support and COVID strain change/commercial manufacturing support of approximately $125 million in 2026 and $25 million in 2027), meaning the company expects front‑loaded spend despite guidance reductions.
Regulatory and Macro Uncertainty
Management acknowledged significant uncertainty in the U.S. macro and regulatory environment for vaccines (e.g., ACIP decisions and evolving public policy), which could affect Nuvaxovid uptake and broader market dynamics for vaccine adoption.
Competitive and Execution Risks for R&D Programs
Preclinical programs (C. diff, shingles, RSV) face typical scientific and competitive risks; timelines are contingent on further data and potential partner interest—company will be selective in disclosures for competitive reasons.
Company Guidance
Novavax’s guidance emphasized a 2026 adjusted total revenue outlook of $230–$270 million (built from $35–45M of Nuvaxovid product sales, $40–50M of adjusted supply sales, and $155–175M of adjusted licensing/royalties — including $70–80M of Sanofi R&D reimbursements, $50–60M of other partner revenue that includes the $30M Pfizer upfront, and ~$35M of non‑cash amortization). On expenses, management narrowed non‑GAAP combined R&D & SG&A to $325M in 2026 and $225M in 2027 (midpoints) and set a 2028 target of $200M or below (roughly a ~50% reduction versus 2025), noting an anticipated ~ $200M core 2026 run‑rate when excluding partner/APA‑related costs (including ~ $125M of non‑reimbursed Sanofi R&D support and ~$25M of COVID/strain‑change support across 2026–27); Q4 non‑GAAP results annualized to about $328M. Liquidity: Novavax ended 2025 with $857M cash & receivables, added $80M in Q1‑2026 ($30M Pfizer upfront + $50M draw on a $330M credit facility) and believes it can fund operations into 2028 without new cash, targeting non‑GAAP P&L profitability as early as 2028; the 2026 framework excludes potential Sanofi milestones ($125M Phase‑III initiation milestone and a $75M tech‑transfer milestone pending timing).Novavax Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability and revenue rebounded sharply in 2025 with very strong gross and net margins, but the overall profile remains higher-risk due to persistently negative equity and continued negative operating/free cash flow in 2025, indicating earnings have not yet translated into cash generation.Income Statement
Results show a sharp turnaround in profitability in 2025 versus the heavy losses in 2021–2024. Revenue rebounded strongly from 2023–2025 (from $556M to $1.12B), and 2025 delivered robust profitability with high gross margin (~93%) and solid net margin (~39%). The main weakness is volatility: prior years showed very large negative margins and uneven revenue, highlighting a business model that has been highly dependent on product/market cycles and execution swings.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable in absolute dollars (2025 total debt ~$249M), but the capital structure is pressured by persistently negative stockholders’ equity (still negative in 2025). Total assets have declined from 2021–2025, and the negative equity position reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing/solvency risk even with modest debt levels.28
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a key concern. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative in 2022–2025, including a sizable outflow in 2025 (operating cash flow about -$245M; free cash flow about -$250M). Free cash flow also deteriorated in 2025 versus 2024 (negative growth), suggesting profits in 2025 did not translate into cash, which increases funding risk if negative cash burn persists.22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.12B | 682.16M | 556.38M | 1.60B | 197.58M |
| Gross Profit | 1.05B | 479.42M | 212.61M | 696.31M | 197.58M |
| EBITDA | 492.33M | -108.04M | -487.39M | -604.71M | -1.68B |
| Net Income | 440.30M | -187.50M | -545.06M | -657.94M | -1.74B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.18B | 1.56B | 1.80B | 2.26B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 735.08M | 923.12M | 568.50M | 1.34B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 248.81M | 230.42M | 229.08M | 549.78M | 453.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.30B | 2.18B | 2.51B | 2.89B | 2.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | -127.75M | -623.84M | -716.93M | -634.08M | -351.67M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -250.19M | -100.32M | -772.77M | -508.92M | 265.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -244.63M | -87.26M | -713.97M | -415.94M | 322.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -78.27M | -204.04M | -58.81M | -92.98M | 100.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 27.74M | 260.58M | 4.47M | 324.99M | 461.71M |
Novavax Technical Analysis
Positive
10.14
Price Trends
8.26
Positive
7.93
Positive
7.73
Positive
Market Momentum
0.48
Negative
60.83
Neutral
69.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.96, above the 50-day MA of 8.26, and above the 200-day MA of 7.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVAX.
Novavax Risk Analysis
Novavax disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novavax reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Novavax Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $1.65B | 4.26 | ― | ― | 20.27% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $1.27B | -2.87 | -45.73% | ― | -78.55% | 7.74% | |
57 Neutral | $1.35B | -8.88 | -41.27% | ― | ― | 4.29% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.12B | -4.34 | -96.11% | ― | ― | 31.16% | |
49 Neutral | $1.09B | -7.36 | -14.47% | ― | 7.16% | 3.95% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NVAX
Novavax
10.14
1.81
21.73%
VIR
Vir Biotechnology
9.09
0.70
8.34%
ORIC
Oric Pharmaceuticals
13.45
5.42
67.50%
ABCL
AbCellera Biologics
3.61
1.03
39.65%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
4.21
1.60
61.30%
Novavax Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Novavax Outlines New Growth Strategy and Partnerships
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
Novavax plans to provide investors with strategic and business updates on January 12, 2026, at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, supported by a corporate investor presentation accessible via its website. The presentation outlines the company’s recent leadership changes, cost and liability reduction efforts, and its key Sanofi partnership, and highlights a new growth strategy built around expanded partnerships, R&D-driven innovation, and a shift toward a diversified revenue model and non-GAAP profitability over the next several years, signaling a continued transition in its operational and financial trajectory.
The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Sell with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.