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Novavax (NVAX)
NASDAQ:NVAX

Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

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Novavax

(NASDAQ:NVAX)

39Underperform
Novavax's stock score is primarily impacted by its financial instability, including persistent losses and negative equity. While there are strategic improvements and partnerships, these are overshadowed by declining revenues and reliance on external parties for future success. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the valuation reflects ongoing challenges.
Positive Factors
Market Potential
The potential combination of Novavax's Covid vaccine with high-dose flu vaccines represents a significant potential upside for Novavax.
Regulatory Approval
Novavax highlighted that they believe their BLA for Nuvaxovid is approvable based on their conversations with the FDA to date.
Vaccine Safety
The Novavax vaccine resulted in about half as many negative symptoms compared to current mRNA vaccines, which could be advantageous in the Covid vaccination landscape.
Negative Factors
Financial Risks
Significant downside risk is seen if Novavax doesn’t secure full approval for milestones and royalties from the Sanofi partnership.
Regulatory Approval Delays
The announcement of a pause on the pending BLA review of Nuvaxovid is seen as confirming one of the biggest near-term risks for the industry flagged by investors.
Regulatory Challenges
The request for another randomized clinical trial for Nuvaxovid increases downside risk for potential milestones/royalties.

Novavax (NVAX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNovavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate. It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics. It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
How the Company Makes MoneyNovavax generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccines to governments and health organizations around the world. The company earns money from product sales, government contracts, and grants, as well as collaborations and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. A significant portion of its revenue is derived from sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, particularly through agreements with various countries and international health agencies. Additionally, partnerships with organizations such as the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and funding from government entities have been crucial in supporting Novavax's research and development efforts, contributing to its overall earnings.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Novavax is facing significant financial challenges, with persistent losses and negative equity. While there is some revenue growth, the company's profitability and liquidity remain major concerns. The cash flow situation is slightly improved, but still negative, casting doubts on long-term sustainability without strategic financial restructuring or profitability improvements.
Income Statement
35
Negative
Novavax has shown some revenue improvement from 2023 to 2024, with a growth rate of approximately 22.58%. However, the company is still struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins. Gross profit margin is reasonably positive at around 70.26% for 2024. The persistent losses suggest challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
The balance sheet is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity. Despite an improvement in cash reserves, overall liabilities exceed total assets, leading to a precarious financial position.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Novavax's cash flow situation shows some improvement, with operating cash flow reducing in negativity, but free cash flow remains negative. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not meaningful given the negative net income. Financing activities have provided a cash influx, but sustainability is a concern.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
682.16M556.38M1.60B1.15B475.60M
Gross Profit
479.42M212.61M696.31M1.13B-271.43M
EBIT
-248.93M-566.51M-644.74M-1.69B-416.72M
EBITDA
-108.04M-487.39M-604.71M-1.68B-398.23M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-187.50M-545.06M-657.94M-1.74B-427.50M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
923.12M568.50M1.34B1.52B711.05M
Total Assets
1.56B1.80B2.26B2.58B1.58B
Total Debt
230.42M229.08M549.78M453.99M322.04M
Net Debt
-299.81M-339.42M-787.10M-1.06B-231.36M
Total Liabilities
2.18B2.51B2.89B2.93B955.27M
Stockholders Equity
-623.84M-716.93M-634.08M-351.67M627.21M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-100.32M-772.77M-508.92M265.46M-97.16M
Operating Cash Flow
-87.26M-713.97M-415.94M322.95M-42.54M
Investing Cash Flow
-204.04M-58.81M-92.98M100.15M-377.78M
Financing Cash Flow
260.58M4.47M324.99M461.71M984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price6.67
Price Trends
50DMA
7.14
Negative
100DMA
7.93
Negative
200DMA
9.80
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.12
Negative
RSI
49.56
Neutral
STOCH
39.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.35, below the 50-day MA of 7.14, and below the 200-day MA of 9.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Risk Analysis

Novavax disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novavax reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Novavax Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$736.26M4.0428.12%910.33%
62
Neutral
$753.67M-37.72%-3.08%
62
Neutral
$1.53B-13.92%24.19%10.51%
52
Neutral
$5.38B3.59-41.63%2.87%17.72%1.87%
49
Neutral
$771.79M-14.75%-24.17%-9.24%
42
Neutral
$1.01B-41.43%0.71%
39
Underperform
$1.08B30.06%-30.65%77.62%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NVAX
Novavax
6.67
2.00
42.83%
AVXL
Anavex Life Sciences
9.50
5.81
157.45%
CVAC
CureVac
3.55
0.90
33.96%
ABCL
AbCellera Biologics
2.61
-1.17
-30.95%
PHVS
Pharvaris
18.48
-6.09
-24.79%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
30.10
-28.95
-49.03%

Novavax Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -8.88%|
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights several positive strategic moves by Novavax, including a significant partnership with Sanofi, financial improvements, and new pipeline initiatives. However, these are counterbalanced by challenges such as declining revenues, dependence on Sanofi for future success, and regulatory uncertainties.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Partnership with Sanofi
Novavax announced a wide-ranging partnership agreement with Sanofi, receiving an initial cash payment of $500 million upfront and a $70 million equity investment. Sanofi will take the lead commercialization role for Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine starting this year.
Financial Improvements and Cost Reductions
Novavax reduced its current liabilities by $1.3 billion over the last two years and significantly reduced combined R&D and SG&A expenses. They are on track to decrease expenses by approximately 85% by 2027 compared to their 2022 baseline.
New Early-Stage Pipeline Initiatives
Novavax added four new early-stage assets focused on C. Diff, varicella-zoster virus, pandemic flu, and a triple RSV combination. Preclinical data from these programs are expected in the second half of the year.
Sale of Czech Republic Facility
The sale of the Czech Republic manufacturing facility for $200 million helped reduce annual operating costs by approximately $80 million.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
In Q4 2024, Novavax reported total revenue of $88 million compared to $291 million in the same period in 2023, reflecting a significant decline.
Dependence on Sanofi for Future Revenues
Novavax's path to profitability relies heavily on the successful commercialization and execution by Sanofi, including achieving milestone payments and royalties.
Uncertainty in Regulatory Approvals
There is ongoing work to gain regulatory approval for the COVID-19 vaccine, with the BLA action date set for April. The outcome of regulatory interactions remains uncertain.
Company Guidance
During the Novavax Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic developments. Novavax reported total revenue of $682 million for the year, with $190 million from product sales and $492 million from licensing and royalties. They successfully reduced their R&D and SG&A expenses by 40% compared to 2023, targeting further reductions in 2025. The company achieved significant milestones, including the sale of a Czech Republic manufacturing facility for $200 million, which contributed to reducing operating costs by $80 million annually. Novavax also decreased current liabilities by $1.3 billion over two years. Moving forward, the company anticipates 2025 as a transition year, focusing on a partnership with Sanofi, which includes potential milestone payments totaling $225 million and royalties in the high-teens to low 20% range. The company aims for profitability by 2027 with a breakeven revenue target of $225 million, supported by continued cost reductions and strategic partnerships.

Novavax Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Novavax Expands Board, Appoints Charles W. Newton
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025

On April 25, 2025, Novavax, Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from eight to nine members by appointing Charles W. Newton as a Class III director. Mr. Newton will serve until the company’s 2025 annual stockholders meeting and is eligible for compensation under the company’s Non-Employee Director Compensation Policy, which includes cash and equity grants. The Board determined Mr. Newton is independent under Nasdaq listing standards, and he will enter into the company’s standard indemnification agreement.

Spark’s Take on NVAX Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, NVAX is a Neutral.

Novavax’s overall score reflects significant financial challenges, with negative profitability and liquidity issues. The company’s strategic partnerships and cost reductions are positive, but reliance on Sanofi and regulatory uncertainties pose risks. Technical indicators are mixed, and valuation metrics are unfavorable.

To see Spark’s full report on NVAX stock, click here.

Product-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Novavax’s Biologics License Application Nears Approval
Neutral
Apr 23, 2025

On April 23, 2025, Novavax announced that their Biologics License Application is considered approvable by the FDA, following discussions up to April 1. The FDA has requested additional clinical data as a post-marketing commitment, and Novavax plans to address this request promptly to secure approval.

Spark’s Take on NVAX Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, NVAX is a Underperform.

Novavax faces critical financial instability with negative equity and persistent losses. Technical indicators show a weak market momentum, further exacerbated by negative valuation metrics. While strategic partnerships and cost-saving measures from the earnings call provide a glimpse of potential recovery, recent corporate events such as the contract termination with Canada add further risk. The stock remains a speculative investment with significant hurdles to clear before achieving stability and growth.

To see Spark’s full report on NVAX stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Novavax Announces Board Changes and Strategic Shift
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025

On March 10, 2025, Novavax announced the resignation of James F. Young, Ph.D. from its Board of Directors, with no disagreements cited. Margaret G. McGlynn was appointed as the new Chairperson, and John W. Shiver, Ph.D. joined as a Class III director and member of the Research and Development Committee. Dr. Shiver brings over 30 years of experience in vaccine development, enhancing the board’s expertise. This transition marks a strategic shift for Novavax, as it continues to focus on partnerships and leveraging its technology platform for growth.

Product-Related AnnouncementsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Novavax Faces Contract Termination with Canadian Government
Negative
Mar 11, 2025

On March 7, 2025, Novavax received a notice terminating its advanced purchase agreement with the Canadian government due to the company’s failure to obtain regulatory approval for its COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2024. As a result, Novavax will recognize $576 million as product revenue in the first quarter of 2025, but must refund $28 million in advanced payments to Canada. Additionally, a proposed memorandum of understanding related to in-country commitments is no longer feasible, allowing Novavax to release related funds.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Novavax to Present Strategic Plans at Health Conference
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025

On March 4, 2025, Novavax will update investors at the TD Cowen 45th Annual Health Care Conference about its strategic and business plans, including the transition of COVID-19 vaccine commercialization to Sanofi for the 2025-2026 season. The company aims to advance its vaccine pipeline and expand partnerships, but faces challenges such as regulatory approvals and manufacturing constraints, which could impact its financial and operational performance.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.