Novavax (NVAX)
NASDAQ:NVAX
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Novavax
(NASDAQ:NVAX)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(4.68% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow and negative equity despite the 2025 profitability inflection. Offsetting factors include constructive price momentum, a low P/E valuation, and earnings-call commentary pointing to multi-year liquidity and a cost-down plan—though guidance and future results remain highly dependent on partner execution and noncash/one-time revenue dynamics.
Positive Factors
Partnerships and High‑Value Deals
High‑value partnerships with Pfizer and Sanofi provide durable upside via upfront payments, multi‑decade royalties and milestone streams. These deals outsource commercialization risk, expand market reach via partner scale, and create recurring royalty/milestone potential that can sustain revenue beyond direct product sales.
Negative Factors
Negative Operating and Free Cash Flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow despite accounting profits indicates weak cash conversion and ongoing burn. Continued negative cash flow elevates funding risk, may force further asset sales or onerous financing, and constrains strategic flexibility if partner receipts or milestone timing disappoint.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Partnerships and High‑Value Deals
High‑value partnerships with Pfizer and Sanofi provide durable upside via upfront payments, multi‑decade royalties and milestone streams. These deals outsource commercialization risk, expand market reach via partner scale, and create recurring royalty/milestone potential that can sustain revenue beyond direct product sales.
Read all positive factors
Novavax (NVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.5
Beta (1Y)1.78
Revenue Growth20.27%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees952
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding162,935,940
10 Day Avg. Volume3,226,433
30 Day Avg. Volume3,890,779
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-8.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio-4.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.60Price Target Upside67.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$396.19M
Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus v...
How the Company Makes Money
Novavax generates revenue primarily from (1) product sales of its COVID-19 vaccine to government agencies and other customers in markets where it has authorization/approval, (2) licensing and royalty-type income from partners that manufacture and/...
Novavax Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized substantial progress: robust revenue growth (driven partly by noncash APA resolution), profitability in both Q4 and full‑year 2025, strong cash and credit resources with a runway into 2028, meaningful cost reductions, and accelerating partnership momentum (notably Pfizer and Sanofi) that together present a clear path to lower run‑rate costs and potential future milestone and royalty upside. Key risks highlighted include reliance on partner execution for meaningful future revenue, certain milestone timing uncertainties (tech transfer and Phase III milestones with Sanofi), front‑loaded partner‑related spending in 2026, and broader regulatory uncertainties that could affect product uptake. Overall, the positives (growth, profitability, cash runway, partnerships, and disciplined cost cuts) substantially outweigh the listed risks, though future value remains contingent on partner success and regulatory developments.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Reported total revenue of $1.1 billion for full year 2025, a 65% year-over-year increase; fourth quarter 2025 revenue of $147 million, a 67% increase year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Revenue Composition Includes Large Noncash Items
The 2025 revenue base includes ~$625 million of primarily noncash revenue recognition related to resolution of Nuvaxovid APA agreements (Canada and New Zealand), underscoring that a meaningful portion of growth was noncash and one‑time in nature.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Reported total revenue of $1.1 billion for full year 2025, a 65% year-over-year increase; fourth quarter 2025 revenue of $147 million, a 67% increase year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Novavax’s guidance emphasized a 2026 adjusted total revenue outlook of $230–$270 million (built from $35–45M of Nuvaxovid product sales, $40–50M of adjusted supply sales, and $155–175M of adjusted licensing/royalties — including $70–80M of Sanofi R&D reimbursements, $50–60M of other partner revenue that includes the $30M Pfizer upfront, and ~$35M of non‑cash amortization). On expenses, management narrowed non‑GAAP combined R&D & SG&A to $325M in 2026 and $225M in 2027 (midpoints) and set a 2028 target of $200M or below (roughly a ~50% reduction versus 2025), noting an anticipated ~ $200M core 2026 run‑rate when excluding partner/APA‑related costs (including ~ $125M of non‑reimbursed Sanofi R&D support and ~$25M of COVID/strain‑change support across 2026–27); Q4 non‑GAAP results annualized to about $328M. Liquidity: Novavax ended 2025 with $857M cash & receivables, added $80M in Q1‑2026 ($30M Pfizer upfront + $50M draw on a $330M credit facility) and believes it can fund operations into 2028 without new cash, targeting non‑GAAP P&L profitability as early as 2028; the 2026 framework excludes potential Sanofi milestones ($125M Phase‑III initiation milestone and a $75M tech‑transfer milestone pending timing).Novavax Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.12B | 682.16M | 556.38M | 1.60B | 197.58M |
| Gross Profit | 1.05B | 479.42M | 212.61M | 696.31M | 197.58M |
| EBITDA | 492.33M | -108.04M | -487.39M | -604.71M | -1.68B |
| Net Income | 440.30M | -187.50M | -545.06M | -657.94M | -1.74B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.18B | 1.56B | 1.80B | 2.26B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 735.08M | 923.12M | 568.50M | 1.34B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 248.81M | 230.42M | 229.08M | 549.78M | 453.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.30B | 2.18B | 2.51B | 2.89B | 2.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | -127.75M | -623.84M | -716.93M | -634.08M | -351.67M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -250.19M | -100.32M | -772.77M | -508.92M | 265.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -244.63M | -87.26M | -713.97M | -415.94M | 322.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -78.27M | -204.04M | -58.81M | -92.98M | 100.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 27.74M | 260.58M | 4.47M | 324.99M | 461.71M |
Novavax Technical Analysis
Negative
8.12
Price Trends
9.19
Negative
8.24
Negative
8.08
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.40
Positive
39.96
Neutral
57.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.95, below the 50-day MA of 9.19, and above the 200-day MA of 8.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.
Novavax Risk Analysis
Novavax disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novavax reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Novavax Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $1.52B | -1.91 | -49.31% | ― | -78.55% | 7.74% | |
60 Neutral | $1.32B | 2.47 | -546.21% | ― | 20.27% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $1.02B | -5.55 | -38.79% | ― | ― | 4.29% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $1.07B | -6.98 | -14.16% | ― | 7.16% | 3.95% | |
46 Neutral | $824.62M | -4.22 | -141.99% | ― | ― | 31.16% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NVAX
Novavax
8.12
1.71
26.68%
VIR
Vir Biotechnology
9.50
3.93
70.56%
ORIC
Oric Pharmaceuticals
10.15
5.04
98.63%
ABCL
AbCellera Biologics
3.54
1.10
45.08%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
3.09
1.28
70.72%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.