Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.38B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.63
• Revenue Growth: 9.22%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.62
• Shares Outstanding: 162,421,650
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,685,565
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,543,655
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.46
• 1Y Price Target: $11.50
• Price Target Upside: 34.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▼(-0.23% Downside)

Novavax's overall stock score reflects financial challenges and a lack of strong technical momentum, partially offset by a positive earnings call and undervaluation. The company's strategic partnerships and cost reductions are promising, but financial instability remains a concern.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships with companies like Takeda and Sanofi enhance Novavax's market reach and leverage their distribution networks, potentially increasing vaccine sales and revenue stability over time.

Cost Reduction Strategies

Significant cost reductions in R&D and SG&A reflect management's focus on operational efficiency, which can improve profitability and free up resources for strategic investments.

Cash Flow Improvements

The substantial growth in free cash flow indicates improved financial health and provides the company with more flexibility to invest in R&D and strategic initiatives.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage and a negative debt-to-equity ratio suggest financial instability, which could limit Novavax's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.

Declining Revenue

A significant year-over-year decline in revenue indicates challenges in maintaining market demand and competitive positioning, potentially impacting long-term growth prospects.

Negative Operating Cash Flows

Negative operating cash flows highlight ongoing operational inefficiencies, which could strain resources and hinder the company's ability to fund new projects or respond to market changes.

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate. It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics. It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Novavax generates revenue primarily through government contracts, partnerships, and grants focused on vaccine development and commercialization. Significant revenue streams include sales of its vaccine products, particularly those developed for COVID-19, which have been supported by substantial funding from government entities and international organizations. Additionally, Novavax collaborates with other pharmaceutical companies and research institutions to enhance its vaccine pipeline, contributing to its earnings through shared revenue agreements and milestone payments. The company's revenue model is heavily influenced by the demand for its vaccines, regulatory approvals, and ongoing public health initiatives.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novavax's financial performance is challenged by declining revenue, high leverage, and negative operating cash flows. While there are strengths in gross profit margins and free cash flow growth, these are overshadowed by significant financial instability and potential risks.

Income Statement

Novavax's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a gross profit margin of 88.25%, which is strong, but the net profit margin is 38.14%, reflecting significant profitability challenges. Revenue has decreased by 14.04% in the TTM, indicating a decline in sales. The EBIT margin is negative, suggesting operational inefficiencies, although the EBITDA margin is positive at 42.75%, showing some operational cash flow strength.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals financial instability, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -3.02 in the TTM, indicating high leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is also negative, reflecting poor profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is not directly provided, but the high debt levels and negative equity suggest financial vulnerability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some positive trends, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 223.27% in the TTM. However, both operating and free cash flows are negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting that free cash flow covers net income, but the negative operating cash flow coverage ratio indicates operational cash flow issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.08B	682.16M	556.38M	1.60B	1.15B	475.60M
Gross Profit	953.09M	479.42M	212.61M	696.31M	1.13B	-271.43M
EBITDA	495.57M	-108.04M	-487.39M	-604.71M	-1.68B	-398.23M
Net Income	422.82M	-187.50M	-545.06M	-657.94M	-1.74B	-427.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.34B	1.56B	1.80B	2.26B	2.58B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	623.05M	923.12M	568.50M	1.34B	1.52B	711.05M
Total Debt	228.49M	230.42M	229.08M	549.78M	453.99M	322.04M
Total Liabilities	1.30B	2.18B	2.51B	2.89B	2.93B	955.27M
Stockholders Equity	37.63M	-623.84M	-716.93M	-634.08M	-351.67M	627.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-635.41M	-100.32M	-772.77M	-508.92M	265.46M	-97.16M
Operating Cash Flow	-630.94M	-87.26M	-713.97M	-415.94M	322.95M	-42.54M
Investing Cash Flow	213.70M	-204.04M	-58.81M	-92.98M	100.15M	-377.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-11.62M	260.58M	4.47M	324.99M	461.71M	984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.78, above the 50-day MA of 8.40, and above the 200-day MA of 7.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	―	$1.21B	5.93	―	―	799.36%	―
AVXL	―	$695.74M	-14.30	-43.63%	―	―	-13.05%
IMCR	―	$1.67B	―	-5.38%	―	26.90%	62.72%
NVAX	―	$1.38B	3.77	―	―	9.22%	―
Sector *	―	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ABCL	―	$1.69B	―	-15.64%	―	-0.54%	-6.28%
PHVS	―	$1.47B	―	-63.96%	―	―	-36.92%

Novavax Corporate Events

Novavax Enters Lease Agreement with AstraZeneca

On October 17, 2025, Novavax, Inc. entered into an agreement with AstraZeneca to assign the lease of its Gaithersburg, MD facility, resulting in a total of $59.8 million payable by AstraZeneca. This transaction, along with related asset and parcel sales, is expected to lead to non-cash impairment charges of between $96 million and $98 million in the third quarter of 2025, though it will not impact Novavax’s cash flow. The move signifies a strategic shift for Novavax as it relocates its headquarters and restructures its asset portfolio, potentially impacting its operational focus and financial standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Sell with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Transfers EU Vaccine Rights to Sanofi

On October 1, 2025, the European Commission approved the transfer of the marketing authorization for Novavax‘s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, from Novavax CZ to Sanofi Winthrop Industrie. This transfer, part of the company’s collaboration and license agreement with Sanofi, triggered a $25 million milestone payment to Novavax, expected in the first quarter of 2026. This move allows Sanofi to take full responsibility for commercial and regulatory activities in the EU, furthering Novavax’s strategy of ensuring global access to its vaccine. The agreement also includes potential future milestone payments and royalties for Novavax, highlighting the ongoing collaboration with Sanofi and its impact on Novavax’s operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Gains FDA Approval for Nuvaxovid Vaccine

On August 27, 2025, Novavax announced that the FDA approved its Nuvaxovid 2025-2026 formula, a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, for adults 65 and older and individuals 12-64 with underlying conditions. The approval includes extending the vaccine’s shelf life to six months and requires postmarketing studies to assess safety and post-vaccination syndrome. This approval positions Novavax as the only provider of a non-mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. for the 2025-2026 season, potentially impacting its market presence and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Completes $225M Convertible Notes Transaction

On August 27, 2025, Novavax, Inc. completed a series of privately negotiated exchange and subscription transactions, issuing $225 million in Convertible Senior Notes due 2031. This financial maneuver involved exchanging existing notes and issuing new ones for cash, with the aim of optimizing the company’s capital structure. The notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, offer a conversion option into common stock, potentially affecting the company’s stock issuance and market dynamics. These transactions reflect Novavax’s strategic financial management efforts to enhance its liquidity and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Announces $225M Convertible Senior Notes Issuance

On August 20, 2025, Novavax announced it had entered into agreements to issue $225 million in 4.625% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031, replacing existing 5.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 and raising new capital. This refinancing extends the maturity of most of its existing debt, improving the company’s capital structure and potentially impacting the market price of its stock and notes. The transactions are expected to close on or about August 27, 2025, with the company planning to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Earnings Call: Milestones and Challenges

The recent earnings call for Novavax presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting both positive developments and ongoing challenges. The company celebrated significant milestone payments and successful cost reduction strategies, yet faced hurdles such as a decline in total revenue and a reliance on partner performance for future profitability.

Novavax Reports Strong Earnings Amid Strategic Shifts

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company specializing in the development and commercialization of vaccines to address global health challenges, utilizing its proprietary recombinant protein-based nanoparticle technology and Matrix-M adjuvant. The company operates within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, focusing on vaccine innovation and strategic partnerships.