Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.22B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.74M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.59
• Revenue Growth: 9.22%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.62
• Shares Outstanding: 162,421,650
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,720,674
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,739,098
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.46
• 1Y Price Target: $10.00
• Price Target Upside: 31.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▼(-1.06% Downside)

Novavax's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including high leverage and declining revenue, despite some positive corporate developments and undervaluation. The company's strategic efforts to improve profitability and financial health are promising but need to be realized to mitigate existing risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Novavax has been successful in trimming operating expenses by about two-thirds from COVID highs and cleaning up its balance sheet.

Vaccine Trials

Positive results have been reported from the recently initiated Phase 4 Nuvaxovid efficacy trial.

Negative Factors

Market Share

Novavax has reduced peak market share estimates for Nuvaxovid from 18% to 14% due to uncertainty in the COVID market.

Regulatory Challenges

The higher burden of proof and cost for pivotal trials under the new FDA framework may raise the bar for signing new partnerships for Novavax's COVID-19/influenza combination (CIC) vaccine program.

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on the development and commercialization of innovative vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. The company primarily operates in the biopharmaceutical sector, with a strong emphasis on vaccine development using its proprietary nanoparticle technology platform. Novavax's core products include vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), seasonal influenza, and COVID-19, as well as other infectious diseases.

How the Company Makes Money

Novavax generates revenue primarily through government contracts, partnerships, and grants focused on vaccine development and commercialization. Significant revenue streams include sales of its vaccine products, particularly those developed for COVID-19, which have been supported by substantial funding from government entities and international organizations. Additionally, Novavax collaborates with other pharmaceutical companies and research institutions to enhance its vaccine pipeline, contributing to its earnings through shared revenue agreements and milestone payments. The company's revenue model is heavily influenced by the demand for its vaccines, regulatory approvals, and ongoing public health initiatives.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novavax's financial performance is challenged by declining revenue, high leverage, and negative operating cash flows. Despite strong gross profit margins and significant free cash flow growth, the company faces financial instability and potential risks.

Income Statement

Novavax's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a gross profit margin of 88.25%, which is strong, but the net profit margin is 38.14%, reflecting significant profitability challenges. Revenue has decreased by 14.04% in the TTM, indicating a decline in sales. The EBIT margin is negative, suggesting operational inefficiencies, although the EBITDA margin is positive at 42.75%, showing some operational cash flow strength.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals financial instability, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -3.02 in the TTM, indicating high leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is also negative, reflecting poor profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is not directly provided, but the high debt levels and negative equity suggest financial vulnerability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some positive trends, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 223.27% in the TTM. However, both operating and free cash flows are negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting that free cash flow covers net income, but the negative operating cash flow coverage ratio indicates operational cash flow issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.08B	682.16M	556.38M	1.60B	1.15B	475.60M
Gross Profit	953.09M	479.42M	212.61M	696.31M	1.13B	-271.43M
EBITDA	495.57M	-108.04M	-487.39M	-604.71M	-1.68B	-398.23M
Net Income	422.82M	-187.50M	-545.06M	-657.94M	-1.74B	-427.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.34B	1.56B	1.80B	2.26B	2.58B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	623.05M	923.12M	568.50M	1.34B	1.52B	711.05M
Total Debt	228.49M	230.42M	229.08M	549.78M	453.99M	322.04M
Total Liabilities	1.30B	2.18B	2.51B	2.89B	2.93B	955.27M
Stockholders Equity	37.63M	-623.84M	-716.93M	-634.08M	-351.67M	627.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-635.41M	-100.32M	-772.77M	-508.92M	265.46M	-97.16M
Operating Cash Flow	-630.94M	-87.26M	-713.97M	-415.94M	322.95M	-42.54M
Investing Cash Flow	213.70M	-204.04M	-58.81M	-92.98M	100.15M	-377.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-11.62M	260.58M	4.47M	324.99M	461.71M	984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.09, above the 50-day MA of 7.35, and below the 200-day MA of 7.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	74 Outperform	$1.22B	5.95	34.46%	―	799.36%	―
IMCR	63 Neutral	$1.64B	―	-5.38%	―	26.90%	62.72%
AVXL	62 Neutral	$818.57M	―	-43.63%	―	―	-13.05%
NVAX	55 Neutral	$1.22B	3.32	30.06%	―	9.22%	―
ABCL	54 Neutral	$1.31B	―	-15.64%	―	-0.54%	-6.28%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.83B	-0.18	-40.10%	2.29%	21.46%	-2.03%
PHVS	42 Neutral	$1.54B	―	-63.96%	―	―	-36.92%

Novavax Corporate Events

Novavax Gains FDA Approval for Nuvaxovid Vaccine

On August 27, 2025, Novavax announced that the FDA approved its Nuvaxovid 2025-2026 formula, a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, for adults 65 and older and individuals 12-64 with underlying conditions. The approval includes extending the vaccine’s shelf life to six months and requires postmarketing studies to assess safety and post-vaccination syndrome. This approval positions Novavax as the only provider of a non-mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. for the 2025-2026 season, potentially impacting its market presence and stakeholder interests.

Novavax Completes $225M Convertible Notes Transaction

On August 27, 2025, Novavax, Inc. completed a series of privately negotiated exchange and subscription transactions, issuing $225 million in Convertible Senior Notes due 2031. This financial maneuver involved exchanging existing notes and issuing new ones for cash, with the aim of optimizing the company’s capital structure. The notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, offer a conversion option into common stock, potentially affecting the company’s stock issuance and market dynamics. These transactions reflect Novavax’s strategic financial management efforts to enhance its liquidity and operational flexibility.

Novavax Announces $225M Convertible Senior Notes Issuance

On August 20, 2025, Novavax announced it had entered into agreements to issue $225 million in 4.625% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031, replacing existing 5.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 and raising new capital. This refinancing extends the maturity of most of its existing debt, improving the company’s capital structure and potentially impacting the market price of its stock and notes. The transactions are expected to close on or about August 27, 2025, with the company planning to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes.

Novavax Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On June 20, 2025, Novavax, Inc. held its Annual Meeting where stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of three Class III directors, approval of executive compensation, and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor were all passed, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s current management and strategic direction.

Novavax Reports Promising Phase 3 Vaccine Trial Results

On June 11, 2025, Novavax announced promising results from the initial cohort of its Phase 3 trial for the COVID-19-Influenza Combination (CIC) and stand-alone influenza vaccine candidates. Both vaccines demonstrated robust immune responses and were well tolerated, showing potential for further development and partnerships. The trial, involving approximately 2,000 adults aged 65 and older, compared these candidates to licensed vaccines Nuvaxovid and Fluzone HD, with results indicating similar immunogenicity and safety profiles. These findings support Novavax’s strategy to pursue partnering opportunities and advance its vaccine programs.