Novavax (NVAX)
NASDAQ:NVAX
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Novavax
(NASDAQ:NVAX)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(1.81% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (TTM losses, cash burn, and persistently negative equity). The latest earnings call adds support via reiterated guidance, partnership momentum, improved liquidity and cost reductions, while technicals are constructive but look near-term stretched. Valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnerships
Novavax’s expanding partner network (Pfizer, Sanofi and several MTAs) diversifies commercialization routes and validates Matrix‑M adoption. Durable alliances create pathways for milestone and royalty income, reduce sole reliance on direct sales, and scale reach via partner capabilities over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative Shareholders' Equity
Consistently negative shareholders’ equity reflects structural balance sheet weakness that limits financial flexibility. Negative equity reduces solvency cushions, complicates borrowing terms and increases the risk of dilutive financing if performance falters, constraining strategic optionality and partner/lender confidence over time.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic Partnerships
Novavax’s expanding partner network (Pfizer, Sanofi and several MTAs) diversifies commercialization routes and validates Matrix‑M adoption. Durable alliances create pathways for milestone and royalty income, reduce sole reliance on direct sales, and scale reach via partner capabilities over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Novavax (NVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.68B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth-52.48%
EPS Growth-117.68%
CountryUS
Employees952
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.54
Shares Outstanding164,438,130
10 Day Avg. Volume5,799,340
30 Day Avg. Volume5,561,681
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-8.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio-4.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-32.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.60Price Target Upside31.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$409.97M
Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus v...
How the Company Makes Money
Novavax generates revenue primarily from (1) product sales of its COVID-19 vaccine to government agencies and other customers in markets where it has authorization/approval, (2) licensing and royalty-type income from partners that manufacture and/...
Novavax Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong strategic progress: rapid expansion of partner collaborations, material partner-driven revenue growth, improved cash position and meaningful reductions in operating costs. Management showcased encouraging preclinical data (notably for a prioritized C. difficile asset) and reiterated 2026 guidance while outlining a credible path to non-GAAP profitability by 2028. Near-term challenges include a large YoY revenue decline driven by a prior-period noncash item, modest direct product sales, continued reliance on partners to convert MTAs to licensed programs and some near-term expense support for partners. On balance, the highlights—particularly partnership momentum, partner-revenue growth, cash runway and cost reductions—substantially outweigh the lowlights, though execution and timing risks remain.Positive Updates
Strategic Partnering Momentum
Signed multiple partnerships and MTAs: new nonexclusive Pfizer license (received $30M upfront, eligible for up to $250M in development/sales milestones per asset and royalties up to 20 years), deepened Sanofi collaboration, 4 new MTAs in early 2026 including a top-10 oncology pharma, and licensing/MTA coverage across 4 of the top 10 global pharma companies enabling exploration of >30 unique indications.
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Decline (Headline)
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $140M, down 79% compared to Q1 2025; the decline was driven largely by a $603M noncash revenue recognition in Q1 2025 from the Nuvaxovid APA closeout, which distorts year-over-year comparisons.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Partnering Momentum
Signed multiple partnerships and MTAs: new nonexclusive Pfizer license (received $30M upfront, eligible for up to $250M in development/sales milestones per asset and royalties up to 20 years), deepened Sanofi collaboration, 4 new MTAs in early 2026 including a top-10 oncology pharma, and licensing/MTA coverage across 4 of the top 10 global pharma companies enabling exploration of >30 unique indications.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 adjusted total revenue guidance of $230–$270M (midpoint $250M) — noting $119M was recognized in Q1, leaving ~$131M to be recorded (~$44M/quarter) — and reiterated 2026/2027 non‑GAAP combined R&D & SG&A guidance of $325M and $225M at midpoints (2026 non‑GAAP range $310–$340M net of partner reimbursements; GAAP combined guidance $380–$420M). They said they expect to operate at an approximate $200M core spend excluding ~ $125M (2026) and ~$25M (2027) of non‑reimbursed Sanofi/APA‑related costs, refined 2028 non‑GAAP R&D+SG&A to $150–$200M, and continue to target non‑GAAP P&L profitability as early as 2028. Novavax ended Q1 with $818M in cash & accounts receivable, added $80M of nondilutive cash in Q1 (including a $30M Pfizer upfront and a $50M initial draw on a $330M credit facility) and believes this funds operations into 2028 without new upfronts/milestones/royalties. Q1 results cited in support of the guidance: total revenue $140M (‑79% YoY), supply sales $33M (+139% YoY), licensing/royalties & other $97M (+116% YoY), Nuvaxovid sales $10M; non‑GAAP combined R&D & SG&A down 23% YoY (non‑GAAP R&D down 13%; GAAP SG&A down 40%); and a $9M net loss. (Note: 2026 adjusted total revenue excludes Sanofi supply sales, royalties and milestones.)Novavax Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
40
Negative
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 596.34M | 1.12B | 682.16M | 556.38M | 1.60B | 197.58M |
| Gross Profit | 504.72M | 1.05B | 479.42M | 212.61M | 696.31M | 197.58M |
| EBITDA | -57.01M | 492.33M | -108.04M | -487.39M | -604.71M | -1.68B |
| Net Income | -87.83M | 440.30M | -187.50M | -545.06M | -657.94M | -1.74B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.04B | 1.18B | 1.56B | 1.80B | 2.26B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 790.33M | 735.08M | 923.12M | 568.50M | 1.34B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 295.06M | 248.81M | 230.42M | 229.08M | 549.78M | 453.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.19B | 1.30B | 2.18B | 2.51B | 2.89B | 2.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | -144.76M | -127.75M | -623.84M | -716.93M | -634.08M | -351.67M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -97.17M | -250.19M | -100.32M | -772.77M | -508.92M | 265.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -91.56M | -244.63M | -87.26M | -713.97M | -415.94M | 322.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -33.31M | -78.27M | -204.04M | -58.81M | -92.98M | 100.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 72.47M | 27.74M | 260.58M | 4.47M | 324.99M | 461.71M |
Novavax Technical Analysis
Positive
8.84
Price Trends
8.90
Positive
9.11
Positive
8.41
Positive
Market Momentum
0.44
Negative
56.48
Neutral
47.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.77, below the 50-day MA of 8.90, and above the 200-day MA of 8.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVAX.
Novavax Risk Analysis
Novavax disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novavax reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Novavax Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
59 Neutral | $1.75B | ― | -14.86% | ― | 242.66% | 15.53% | |
52 Neutral | $1.47B | ― | -53.31% | ― | 213.96% | 25.74% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.68B | ― | 89.73% | ― | -52.48% | -117.68% | |
46 Neutral | $811.58M | -6.26 | -35.33% | ― | ― | 23.91% | |
43 Neutral | $868.27M | -3.39 | -161.87% | ― | ― | -6.15% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NVAX
Novavax
10.19
3.20
45.78%
VIR
Vir Biotechnology
9.15
4.00
77.67%
ORIC
Oric Pharmaceuticals
8.02
-1.14
-12.45%
ABCL
AbCellera Biologics
6.37
4.00
168.78%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
2.96
0.41
16.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.