Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.17B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.58
• Revenue Growth: 25.92%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 44
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 2.93
• Shares Outstanding: 161,970,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,733,831
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,288,177
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.03
• 1Y Price Target: $11.25
• Price Target Upside: 58.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▲(5.78%Upside)

Novavax's overall stock score is supported by its attractive valuation and promising revenue growth. Technical indicators show modest positive momentum, while recent earnings calls highlight strategic progress. However, significant financial risks due to high leverage and negative cash flows temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Partnership Milestones

The FDA approval triggers a $175M milestone from Sanofi, alleviating concerns of near-term risks associated with delays.

Regulatory Approvals

The approval of Nuvaxovid in individuals 65 years or older and individuals 12-64 with underlying conditions has significantly lifted NVAX shares.

Vaccine Efficacy

The Nuvaxoid COVID-19 vaccine is approved and conforms to the latest HHS guidance, showing little risk on this front and adding credibility to NVAX's product lineup.

Negative Factors

Market Valuation

Current share levels are believed to overvalue the discounted forecasts of associated royalty revenue streams, leading to an underweight rating.

Regulatory Challenges

The request for an additional randomized clinical trial for Nuvaxovid increases downside risk for potential milestones and royalties.

Regulatory Environment

The increasingly onerous vaccine regulatory environment is expected to make the recent upside in shares short-lived.

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate. It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics. It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Novavax generates revenue primarily through the development, production, and sale of its vaccine products. A significant portion of its income is derived from government contracts, grants, and advance purchase agreements for its COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, which was distributed globally during the pandemic. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, research institutions, and governments to accelerate vaccine development and expand its market reach. Additionally, Novavax may receive milestone payments and royalties from licensing its proprietary technologies and vaccine candidates to other entities. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as regulatory approvals, production capacity, and the global demand for its vaccines.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novavax shows promising revenue growth and profitability improvements in the TTM period, signaling operational turnaround potential. However, the balance sheet's negative equity and high leverage, coupled with negative cash flows, pose significant financial risks. Sustained profitability and improved cash flow management are critical for long-term stability.

Income Statement

Novavax's TTM revenue showed growth with a revenue increase from $682.2 million to $1.25 billion. The gross profit margin improved significantly, reaching 88.3%, and the net profit margin turned positive at 38.1%, reflecting strong profitability improvements. However, historical EBIT and EBITDA margins were negative, indicating past operational challenges. Recent improvements in these metrics suggest a positive turnaround, though sustainability remains to be seen.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity in the TTM period, leading to a concerning debt-to-equity ratio. Total assets decreased, indicating potential liquidity concerns. The equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, highlighting financial instability. Despite improved net income, the company's liabilities exceed its assets, which is a risk factor.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow deteriorated in the TTM period, with a significant negative position of $196.6 million. Operating cash flow was also negative, indicating ongoing cash burn. Financing activities have provided some relief. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was unfavorable, but improvements in net income provide some optimism. Continuous negative free cash flow suggests cash management challenges.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.25B	682.16M	556.38M	1.60B	1.15B	475.60M
	Gross Profit
1.11B	479.42M	212.61M	696.31M	1.13B	-271.43M
	EBIT
411.41M	-248.93M	-566.51M	-644.74M	-1.69B	-416.72M
	EBITDA
536.50M	-108.04M	-487.39M	-604.71M	-1.68B	-398.23M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
478.70M	-187.50M	-545.06M	-657.94M	-1.74B	-427.50M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
731.48M	923.12M	568.50M	1.34B	1.52B	711.05M
	Total Assets
1.29B	1.56B	1.80B	2.26B	2.58B	1.58B
	Total Debt
228.66M	230.42M	229.08M	549.78M	453.99M	322.04M
	Net Debt
-34.68M	-299.81M	-339.42M	-787.10M	-1.06B	-231.36M
	Total Liabilities
1.37B	2.18B	2.51B	2.89B	2.93B	955.27M
	Stockholders Equity
-75.64M	-623.84M	-716.93M	-634.08M	-351.67M	627.21M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-196.56M	-100.32M	-772.77M	-508.92M	265.46M	-97.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
-189.21M	-87.26M	-713.97M	-415.94M	322.95M	-42.54M
	Investing Cash Flow
-270.11M	-204.04M	-58.81M	-92.98M	100.15M	-377.78M
	Financing Cash Flow
247.64M	260.58M	4.47M	324.99M	461.71M	984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.09
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.12, above the 50-day MA of 6.63, and below the 200-day MA of 8.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	76 Outperform	$961.42M	4.48	34.46%	―	799.36%	―
NVAX	67 Neutral	$1.17B	2.67	30.06%	―	25.92%	―
AVXL	62 Neutral	$693.22M	―	-40.13%	―	―	-3.08%
IMCR	62 Neutral	$1.80B	―	-5.78%	―	25.50%	64.63%
ABCL	56 Neutral	$901.42M	―	-15.59%	―	-35.41%	-12.26%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.40	-45.06%	3.28%	16.75%	-0.02%
PHVS	42 Neutral	$987.42M	―	-51.85%	―	―	0.71%

Novavax Corporate Events

Novavax Reports Promising Phase 3 Vaccine Trial Results

On June 11, 2025, Novavax announced promising results from the initial cohort of its Phase 3 trial for the COVID-19-Influenza Combination (CIC) and stand-alone influenza vaccine candidates. Both vaccines demonstrated robust immune responses and were well tolerated, showing potential for further development and partnerships. The trial, involving approximately 2,000 adults aged 65 and older, compared these candidates to licensed vaccines Nuvaxovid and Fluzone HD, with results indicating similar immunogenicity and safety profiles. These findings support Novavax’s strategy to pursue partnering opportunities and advance its vaccine programs.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Eliminates COO Position, Trizzino to Consult

On May 27, 2025, Novavax, Inc. announced the elimination of the Chief Operating Officer position, resulting in the termination of John Trizzino’s employment effective June 20, 2025. Following his departure, Mr. Trizzino will continue to provide consulting services to the company until December 31, 2025, under a new consulting agreement. The separation agreement includes a lump sum payment and COBRA premium coverage for Mr. Trizzino, while the consulting agreement ensures a monthly fee and continued vesting of his equity awards.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax’s COVID-19 Vaccine Gains FDA Approval

On May 16, 2025, Novavax announced that the FDA approved its Biologics License Application for Nuvaxovid™, a COVID-19 vaccine for adults 65 and older and individuals 12-64 with high-risk conditions. This approval triggered a $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi Pasteur Inc. and requires a new Phase 4 trial for individuals aged 50-64 without high-risk conditions. Novavax plans to deliver the 2025-2026 vaccine formula in the U.S. this fall, pending FDA strain recommendations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVAX) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Novavax stock, see the NVAX Stock Forecast page.

Novavax Expands Board, Appoints Charles W. Newton

On April 25, 2025, Novavax, Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from eight to nine members by appointing Charles W. Newton as a Class III director. Mr. Newton will serve until the company’s 2025 annual stockholders meeting and is eligible for compensation under the company’s Non-Employee Director Compensation Policy, which includes cash and equity grants. The Board determined Mr. Newton is independent under Nasdaq listing standards, and he will enter into the company’s standard indemnification agreement.

Novavax’s Biologics License Application Nears Approval

On April 23, 2025, Novavax announced that their Biologics License Application is considered approvable by the FDA, following discussions up to April 1. The FDA has requested additional clinical data as a post-marketing commitment, and Novavax plans to address this request promptly to secure approval.