Natera (NTRA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.97B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: 44.38%
• EPS Growth: 22.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,424
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 137,248,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,304,300
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,056,767
• PEG Ratio: 1.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 16.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 285.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -104.89
• 1Y Price Target: $207.07
• Price Target Upside: 21.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 70 Neutral
• Price Target: $177.00 ▲(3.89% Upside)

Natera's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and positive earnings call sentiment, driven by significant guidance raises and strategic innovations. Technical indicators show bullish momentum, though valuation challenges persist with a negative P/E ratio. The absence of corporate events and dividend yield limits the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Natera's genetic testing services, enhancing its market position and supporting future expansion.

Gross Margin Improvement

Improved gross margins reflect enhanced operational efficiency, which can lead to better profitability and financial health over the long term.

New Product Launch

The launch of innovative products like Fetal Focus NIPT expands Natera's offerings, potentially increasing market share and revenue streams.

Negative Factors

Patent Invalidity Ruling

The invalidation of patent claims could weaken Natera's competitive edge and impact its ability to protect proprietary technologies, affecting long-term growth.

Negative Profit Margins

Persistent negative profit margins indicate ongoing challenges in achieving profitability, which could hinder financial sustainability and investor confidence.

Flat Operating Expenses

Flat operating expenses may limit Natera's ability to scale operations and invest in growth opportunities, potentially impacting long-term competitiveness.

Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father. In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection. The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Natera generates revenue primarily through its genetic testing services. The key revenue streams include payments for tests performed in the reproductive health sector, such as NIPT and carrier screening, as well as oncology tests that detect genetic mutations related to cancer. The company also earns revenue from its organ transplantation services, which help assess compatibility between donors and recipients. Natera benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers, laboratories, and insurance companies that facilitate access to its testing services and contribute to patient referrals. Additionally, Natera invests in research and development to expand its test offerings, which can lead to increased revenue opportunities through new product launches and market expansion.

Natera Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Natera shows strong revenue growth and improving operational efficiency, with a rising gross profit margin. However, profitability challenges persist, with negative net income and EBIT margins. The balance sheet is healthy with low leverage, but negative ROE remains a concern. Cash flow metrics are positive, with significant growth in free cash flow, suggesting potential for future profitability improvements.

Income Statement

Natera has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 7.28%. The gross profit margin has improved to 62.91% in the TTM, indicating strong operational efficiency. However, the company is still facing challenges in profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins, which are -12.89% and -12.57% respectively. The improvement in EBITDA margin to -11.83% suggests some progress in reducing operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.15, reflecting a relatively low level of leverage. However, the return on equity remains negative at -22.21%, indicating ongoing challenges in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 70.93%, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Natera's free cash flow has grown by 22.73% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.49 suggests that the company is generating cash from operations, though not yet sufficient to cover net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.56 highlights progress in aligning cash flow with profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.96B	1.70B	1.08B	820.22M	625.49M	391.00M
Gross Profit	1.24B	1.02B	492.74M	363.97M	307.07M	187.38M
EBITDA	-211.86M	-148.08M	-383.28M	-507.03M	-451.54M	-205.95M
Net Income	-253.24M	-190.43M	-434.80M	-547.80M	-471.72M	-229.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.76B	1.66B	1.44B	1.39B	1.24B	932.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.02B	968.28M	878.98M	898.39M	914.28M	737.27M
Total Debt	196.13M	187.12M	441.99M	446.22M	397.23M	281.09M
Total Liabilities	510.88M	465.31M	676.37M	688.73M	583.18M	445.92M
Stockholders Equity	1.25B	1.20B	765.33M	705.74M	653.30M	486.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	104.56M	69.24M	-286.15M	-479.20M	-376.27M	-202.12M
Operating Cash Flow	186.70M	135.66M	-246.96M	-431.50M	-335.24M	-182.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.29M	137.62M	168.50M	330.34M	-205.19M	-331.46M
Financing Cash Flow	25.81M	30.20M	254.46M	482.64M	576.19M	500.85M

Natera Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 170.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 170.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 169.91, above the 50-day MA of 161.22, and above the 200-day MA of 158.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRA.

Natera Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NTRA	70 Neutral	$22.97B	―	-24.32%	―	44.38%	22.87%
ILMN	66 Neutral	$15.70B	12.93	68.11%	―	-3.32%	―
FLGT	63 Neutral	$704.31M	―	-4.54%	―	4.31%	69.57%
GH	57 Neutral	$7.84B	―	-4584.47%	―	28.74%	18.25%
EXAS	53 Neutral	$10.74B	―	-35.51%	―	12.56%	-464.28%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
NEO	51 Neutral	$1.18B	―	-11.76%	―	9.70%	-30.94%

Natera Corporate Events

Natera Approves Equity Plan Amendment at Annual Meeting

On June 12, 2025, Natera, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where an amendment to the 2015 Equity Incentive Plan was approved, increasing the shares reserved for issuance by 3.6 million. This decision, along with the election of directors and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm, reflects Natera’s strategic focus on enhancing its equity structure and governance.