Natera (NTRA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.44B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: 51.50%
• EPS Growth: 53.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,424
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 136,546,590
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,281,728
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,340,376
• PEG Ratio: -1.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.40
• 1Y Price Target: $206.40
• Price Target Upside: 24.83% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $166.00 ▲(0.40%Upside)

Natera's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and an optimistic outlook from the recent earnings call, which partially offsets valuation concerns due to ongoing losses. Technical indicators show modest short-term momentum but are not strong enough to significantly boost the score.

Positive Factors

Market potential

NTRA remains a growth story with its leading MRD franchise serving an underpenetrated $20B market and a strong base with leadership positions in NIPT and carrier screening.

Medicare coverage

MolDX granted Medicare coverage of its WGS Signatera assay, following completion of a bridging study.

Revenue guidance

The company increased its 2025 revenue guidance to between $1.94 billion and $2.02 billion, reflecting about 26% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

Negative Factors

Benchmark data

WGS Signatera poster lacks landmark CRC data, which is considered an important benchmark.

Operating expenses

There was a modest increase in operating expenses to drive future growth, which was higher than initial forecasts.

Short-term profitability

Operating leverage was deferred, which may impact short-term profitability despite the positive outlook.

Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father. In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection. The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Natera makes money primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests and services. The company generates revenue by providing genetic testing solutions to healthcare professionals, hospitals, and clinics. Its key revenue streams include its flagship Panorama non-invasive prenatal test, which screens for fetal chromosomal abnormalities, the Prospera transplant assessment test for monitoring organ transplant rejection, and the Signatera test for residual disease detection in oncology. Natera also partners with pharmaceutical companies to use its technology in clinical trials and drug development, further enhancing its revenue potential. The company benefits from the growing demand for personalized medicine and the increasing adoption of genetic testing in healthcare.

Natera Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Natera demonstrates strong revenue growth and an improving cash flow position, reflecting a robust market presence and effective cash management. However, consistent net losses and negative profit margins highlight challenges in achieving profitability. The balance sheet is solid with a strong equity position and manageable debt levels.

Income Statement

Natera's revenue trajectory shows robust growth with a significant increase from $391 million in 2020 to $1.83 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. This growth trend is impressive, indicating strong market demand. However, the company has consistently posted negative EBIT and net income, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. The gross profit margin has improved, suggesting operational efficiencies, but the net profit margin remains negative, impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

Natera maintains a solid equity base, with stockholders' equity increasing from $486 million in 2020 to $1.24 billion in TTM 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting prudent debt management. Additionally, the company has a strong equity ratio, indicative of financial stability. However, the consistent net losses present a risk to long-term equity growth, despite the currently favorable debt levels.

Cash Flow

The company has shown a positive trend in free cash flow, growing from a deficit to a surplus of $85 million in TTM 2025. Operating cash flow has also turned positive, demonstrating improved cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash generation is better than accounting earnings, which is a positive sign. However, the history of negative free cash flow ratios could pose potential challenges if not managed carefully.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.83B	1.70B	1.08B	820.22M	625.49M	391.00M
	Gross Profit
1.13B	1.02B	492.74M	363.97M	307.07M	187.38M
	EBIT
-227.16M	-222.29M	-446.25M	-541.04M	-468.17M	-216.28M
	EBITDA
-170.27M	-148.08M	-383.28M	-520.80M	-451.54M	-205.95M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-189.76M	-190.43M	-434.80M	-547.80M	-471.72M	-229.74M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
991.60M	968.28M	878.98M	898.39M	914.28M	737.27M
	Total Assets
1.73B	1.66B	1.44B	1.39B	1.24B	932.15M
	Total Debt
195.60M	187.12M	441.99M	446.22M	397.23M	281.09M
	Net Debt
-778.17M	-758.47M	-200.10M	-19.87M	312.85M	232.43M
	Total Liabilities
492.69M	465.31M	676.37M	688.73M	583.18M	445.92M
	Stockholders Equity
1.24B	1.20B	765.33M	705.74M	653.30M	486.24M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
85.19M	69.24M	-286.15M	-479.20M	-376.27M	-202.12M
	Operating Cash Flow
153.12M	135.66M	-246.96M	-431.50M	-335.24M	-182.51M
	Investing Cash Flow
-17.45M	137.62M	168.50M	330.34M	-205.19M	-331.46M
	Financing Cash Flow
24.28M	30.20M	254.46M	482.64M	576.19M	500.85M

Natera Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 165.34
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 165.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.73, above the 50-day MA of 153.75, and above the 200-day MA of 149.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRA.

Natera Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DGX	79 Outperform	$19.99B	22.78	13.35%	1.77%	9.38%	6.43%
QGEN	72 Outperform	$10.26B	112.87	2.67%	2.80%	3.31%	―
NTRA	67 Neutral	$22.44B	―	-18.66%	―	51.50%	53.23%
EXAS	59 Neutral	$10.19B	―	-36.89%	―	11.57%	-315.25%
GH	57 Neutral	$6.07B	―	-4584.47%	―	28.20%	13.87%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.27	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
ILMN	52 Neutral	$13.95B	―	-23.82%	―	-3.47%	25.55%

Natera Corporate Events

Natera Appoints Monica Bertagnolli to Board of Directors

Natera, Inc. has announced the appointment of Monica Bertagnolli to its Board of Directors, effective March 6, 2025, increasing the board size from ten to eleven members. Dr. Bertagnolli, who previously served on the board from November 2020 to August 2022, will serve as a Class III director with a term expiring in 2027. Her appointment follows her tenure as Director of the National Cancer Institute, and she is recognized as an independent director under the Securities Act of 1933 and Nasdaq listing standards. Dr. Bertagnolli will also join the Nominating, Corporate Governance and Compliance Committee and will receive compensation similar to other non-employee directors. The company has also entered into an Indemnification Agreement with her, ensuring legal protection related to her service.