Natera (NTRA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.38
• Revenue Growth: 44.38%
• EPS Growth: 22.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,424
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 137,248,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,039,094
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,540,134
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -104.89
• 1Y Price Target: $206.38
• Price Target Upside: 28.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 70 Neutral
• Price Target: $177.00 ▲(10.18% Upside)

Natera's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and positive earnings call sentiment, driven by significant guidance raises and strategic innovations. Technical indicators show bullish momentum, though valuation challenges persist with a negative P/E ratio. The absence of corporate events and dividend yield limits the score.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

The IMvigor011 trial results announced by Natera show statistically significant improvements in clinical outcomes for patients treated with atezolizumab when stratified with Signatera.

Market Position

The strong evidence from the IMvigor011 trial and over 100 publications supports Signatera's dominant position in the MRD assay market.

Revenue Growth

NTRA raised its guidance to 28% revenue growth excluding true-ups, which should give additional comfort to investors despite aggressively expanding into other markets.

Negative Factors

Guideline Update

The expected guideline update by NCCN in 2026 could significantly boost MRD uptake, particularly among community oncologists who treat the majority of cancer patients.

Operating Expenses

Operating expenses were higher than expected, which affected the EBITDA margin.

Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natera, Inc. is a leading genetic testing and diagnostics company that specializes in reproductive health, oncology, and organ transplantation. The company provides a range of genetic testing services, including non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT), carrier screening, and tests for hereditary cancer risk. Natera's core products are designed to empower patients and healthcare providers with critical genetic information to make informed medical decisions.

How the Company Makes Money

Natera generates revenue primarily through its genetic testing services. The key revenue streams include payments for tests performed in the reproductive health sector, such as NIPT and carrier screening, as well as oncology tests that detect genetic mutations related to cancer. The company also earns revenue from its organ transplantation services, which help assess compatibility between donors and recipients. Natera benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers, laboratories, and insurance companies that facilitate access to its testing services and contribute to patient referrals. Additionally, Natera invests in research and development to expand its test offerings, which can lead to increased revenue opportunities through new product launches and market expansion.

Natera Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Natera demonstrates strong revenue growth and an improving cash flow position, reflecting a robust market presence and effective cash management. However, consistent net losses and negative profit margins highlight challenges in achieving profitability. The balance sheet is solid with a strong equity position and manageable debt levels.

Income Statement

Natera's revenue trajectory shows robust growth with a significant increase from $391 million in 2020 to $1.83 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. This growth trend is impressive, indicating strong market demand. However, the company has consistently posted negative EBIT and net income, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. The gross profit margin has improved, suggesting operational efficiencies, but the net profit margin remains negative, impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

Natera maintains a solid equity base, with stockholders' equity increasing from $486 million in 2020 to $1.24 billion in TTM 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting prudent debt management. Additionally, the company has a strong equity ratio, indicative of financial stability. However, the consistent net losses present a risk to long-term equity growth, despite the currently favorable debt levels.

Cash Flow

The company has shown a positive trend in free cash flow, growing from a deficit to a surplus of $85 million in TTM 2025. Operating cash flow has also turned positive, demonstrating improved cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash generation is better than accounting earnings, which is a positive sign. However, the history of negative free cash flow ratios could pose potential challenges if not managed carefully.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.96B	1.70B	1.08B	820.22M	625.49M	391.00M
Gross Profit	1.24B	1.02B	492.74M	363.97M	307.07M	187.38M
EBITDA	-211.86M	-148.08M	-383.28M	-507.03M	-451.54M	-205.95M
Net Income	-253.24M	-190.43M	-434.80M	-547.80M	-471.72M	-229.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.76B	1.66B	1.44B	1.39B	1.24B	932.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.02B	968.28M	878.98M	898.39M	914.28M	737.27M
Total Debt	196.13M	187.12M	441.99M	446.22M	397.23M	281.09M
Total Liabilities	510.88M	465.31M	676.37M	688.73M	583.18M	445.92M
Stockholders Equity	1.25B	1.20B	765.33M	705.74M	653.30M	486.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	104.56M	69.24M	-286.15M	-479.20M	-376.27M	-202.12M
Operating Cash Flow	186.70M	135.66M	-246.96M	-431.50M	-335.24M	-182.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.29M	137.62M	168.50M	330.34M	-205.19M	-331.46M
Financing Cash Flow	25.81M	30.20M	254.46M	482.64M	576.19M	500.85M

Natera Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 160.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 160.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 147.44, above the 50-day MA of 154.89, and above the 200-day MA of 156.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRA.

Natera Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
QGEN	74 Outperform	$10.65B	28.79	10.81%	2.55%	5.15%	412.41%
ILMN	70 Neutral	$15.45B	12.87	68.11%	―	-3.32%	―
DGX	70 Neutral	$20.44B	21.86	13.65%	1.68%	12.58%	13.00%
NTRA	70 Neutral	$22.12B	―	-24.32%	―	44.38%	22.87%
GH	57 Neutral	$7.42B	―	-4584.47%	―	28.74%	18.25%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.77B	-0.12	-39.07%	2.21%	22.68%	-1.42%
EXAS	48 Neutral	$8.54B	―	-35.51%	―	12.56%	-464.28%

Natera Corporate Events

Natera Approves Equity Plan Amendment at Annual Meeting

On June 12, 2025, Natera, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where an amendment to the 2015 Equity Incentive Plan was approved, increasing the shares reserved for issuance by 3.6 million. This decision, along with the election of directors and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm, reflects Natera’s strategic focus on enhancing its equity structure and governance.