Want to see NTRA full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Natera
(NASDAQ:NTRA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$307.00
▲(17.18% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:06/17/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (positive operating and free cash flow, strong gross margin profile, low leverage) and a very strong latest earnings update with raised guidance and accelerating volume/revenue trends. Offsetting factors are the company’s continued net losses (negative margins/ROE) and weak traditional valuation support (negative P/E, no dividend yield provided), while technicals are supportive but not strongly overbought.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & low leverage
Natera has materially improved cash generation with positive TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow while maintaining low leverage (debt/equity ~0.14). That durable cash runway and balance-sheet flexibility support continued R&D, commercial scaling, and selective M&A without relying on dilutive financing.
Negative Factors
Ongoing net losses / negative ROE
Despite revenue scale and margin progress, persistent negative operating and net margins and a negative ROE indicate the business has not yet converted scale into sustainable profitability. Continued losses could constrain returns to investors and limit discretionary capital deployment if not resolved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & low leverage
Natera has materially improved cash generation with positive TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow while maintaining low leverage (debt/equity ~0.14). That durable cash runway and balance-sheet flexibility support continued R&D, commercial scaling, and selective M&A without relying on dilutive financing.
Read all positive factors
Natera (NTRA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$38.35B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth36.59%
EPS Growth-11.94%
CountryUS
Employees6,140
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.63
Shares Outstanding143,215,380
10 Day Avg. Volume924,721
30 Day Avg. Volume1,435,349
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio230.60
Price to Book (P/B)18.29
Price to Sales (P/S)13.58
P/FCF Ratio287.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$285.56Price Target Upside9.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.80B
Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Natera, Inc. is a diagnostics company focused on developing and commercializing a wide array of molecular testing services globally. Its portfolio includes several key offerings: Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT) that screens for chrom...
How the Company Makes Money
Natera makes money primarily by performing genetic and molecular diagnostic tests and recognizing revenue when those tests are delivered and reported. Key revenue streams include: (1) Oncology testing revenue, largely from Signatera, a personalize...
Natera Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong, broad-based operational momentum—robust revenue and unit growth (Q1 revenue $697M, +39% YoY), record oncology volumes (249k MRD tests, +55% YoY), successful new-product launches (Fetal Focus approaching ~200k annualized orders), improved ASPs (Signatera ~$1,250) and raised guidance (revenue guide midpoint reset up >$120M; gross margin guidance to 65% midpoint). Transient headwinds (work-in-process timing, acquisition-related COGS, temporary DSO impact, weather effects, and some coverage/authorization friction) were identified but characterized as short-term or manageable. Given the magnitude and number of positive operational and financial developments and management's upward guide and investment posture, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $697 million, up 39% year-over-year, driven by strong volume and ASP expansion.
Negative Updates
Work-in-Process Impact on Margins
A high level of samples in process at quarter-end reduced the sent-to-reported ratio to ~92% (vs normal 95%–96%), creating roughly a 1.5%–2% gross margin headwind in Q1.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $697 million, up 39% year-over-year, driven by strong volume and ASP expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management materially raised guidance: they reset the full-year revenue guide up by more than $120 million at the midpoint and lifted full-year gross margin guidance to 65% at the midpoint (Q1 revenue was $697 million, +39% YoY, with Q1 gross margin just under 65%). They also increased R&D spend by $50 million to accelerate oncology trials, noted roughly $60 million of revenue growth in the quarter, and called out key pricing and volume drivers—Signatera ASPs at about $1,250 (expected to exit 2026 near $1,275) with a long‑term ASP target of $2,000 (which at current annualized volumes would imply ~ $750 million of incremental revenue/gross profit). Underpinning the guide are operational metrics: 249k clinical oncology units in Q1 (+55% YoY), a >1 million MRD annual run rate, >1 million total units in the quarter, a 92% received‑to‑reported ratio this quarter (vs. a normal 95–96%, a ~2‑point margin headwind), an estimated ~$25 million of one‑time Q1 SG&A non‑cash charges, Fetal Focus approaching a ~200k annualized order run rate, and FIND CRC enrollment on pace to finish in Q3 2026 (25–40k target; ~70 CRC cases; ~1,400 advanced adenomas) toward a 2027 PMA readout.Natera Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.50B | 2.31B | 1.70B | 1.08B | 820.22M | 625.49M |
| Gross Profit | 1.63B | 1.50B | 1.02B | 492.74M | 363.97M | 307.07M |
| EBITDA | -223.76M | -220.54M | -148.08M | -383.28M | -507.03M | -451.54M |
| Net Income | -226.31M | -208.16M | -190.43M | -434.80M | -547.80M | -471.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.61B | 2.51B | 1.66B | 1.44B | 1.39B | 1.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.09B | 1.08B | 968.28M | 878.98M | 898.39M | 914.28M |
| Total Debt | 240.08M | 214.38M | 187.12M | 441.99M | 446.22M | 397.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 840.38M | 795.62M | 465.31M | 676.37M | 688.73M | 583.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.20B | 765.33M | 705.74M | 653.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 92.01M | 109.11M | 69.24M | -286.15M | -479.20M | -376.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 211.02M | 215.30M | 135.66M | -246.96M | -431.50M | -335.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -147.53M | -132.21M | 137.62M | 168.50M | 330.34M | -205.19M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 50.67M | 47.46M | 30.20M | 254.46M | 482.64M | 576.19M |
Natera Technical Analysis
Positive
261.99
Price Trends
248.89
Positive
225.11
Positive
222.00
Positive
Market Momentum
4.67
Positive
60.03
Neutral
86.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 261.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 267.92, above the 50-day MA of 248.89, and above the 200-day MA of 222.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRA.
Natera Risk Analysis
Natera disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natera reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natera Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $31.03B | 37.91 | 31.08% | ― | 4.97% | -31.78% | |
73 Outperform | $38.35B | -164.27 | -15.13% | ― | 36.59% | -11.94% | |
60 Neutral | $1.96B | -7.71 | -6.31% | ― | 11.19% | 50.58% | |
60 Neutral | $21.74B | -46.42 | 211.46% | ― | 42.74% | -4.60% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $455.38M | -5.87 | -7.87% | ― | 6.83% | -69.59% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NTRA
Natera
274.62
136.49
98.81%
ILMN
Illumina
199.87
105.44
111.66%
NEO
NeoGenomics
15.73
10.24
186.52%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
18.53
-2.14
-10.35%
GH
Guardant Health
163.18
118.59
265.96%
Natera Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Natera Announces Board Resignation Amid Governance Transition
Neutral
Jul 6, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Natera director Monica Bertagnolli informed the company’s Board that she would resign from the Board and its committees, effective the same day, following her appointment to a new role at the National Academy of Medicine. Na...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Natera Shareholders Approve Equity Plan and Governance Proposals
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Natera, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where investors approved an amendment to the company’s 2015 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the pool of shares available for equity awards by 3.2 million common shares...
Executive/Board Changes
Natera Expands Board, Appoints Thomas Lynch as Director
Neutral
Jun 5, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Natera’s board of directors expanded from eleven to twelve members and appointed Thomas Lynch as a Class I independent director, with a term running through the 2028 annual meeting of stockholders. The board also named Lynch...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.