Natera Inc. (NTRA)
NASDAQ:NTRA
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Natera
(NASDAQ:NTRA)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$208.00
▼(-0.19% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is driven by improving fundamentals (strong gross margins, positive operating and free cash flow, and low leverage) and a very constructive earnings call with raised guidance. Offsetting these positives are weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and limited valuation support due to ongoing net losses (negative P/E and no dividend yield provided).
Positive Factors
High Gross Margin & Scale
Sustained ~65% gross margins coupled with multi-billion dollar revenue indicate durable unit economics and scale. High gross profitability supports reinvestment in R&D and commercialization, helps absorb reimbursement variability, and underpins path to operating leverage as volumes grow.
Negative Factors
Ongoing Profitability Deficit
Despite improving cash flows and margins, the company remains unprofitable on an accounting basis with negative ROE. Persistent GAAP losses constrain returns to shareholders, limit capacity for dividend/share repurchases, and mean sustained execution is required to convert cash generation into consistent net income.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Gross Margin & Scale
Sustained ~65% gross margins coupled with multi-billion dollar revenue indicate durable unit economics and scale. High gross profitability supports reinvestment in R&D and commercialization, helps absorb reimbursement variability, and underpins path to operating leverage as volumes grow.
Read all positive factors
Natera (NTRA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$29.10B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth36.59%
EPS Growth-11.94%
CountryUS
Employees4,424
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.63
Shares Outstanding143,215,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,635,860
30 Day Avg. Volume1,543,854
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio230.22
Price to Book (P/B)18.29
Price to Sales (P/S)13.58
P/FCF Ratio287.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-102.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$262.14Price Target Upside25.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.80B
Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as wel...
How the Company Makes Money
Natera makes money primarily by providing genetic and molecular diagnostic testing services and being reimbursed for those tests. Its core revenue model is fee-for-service: clinicians and health systems order Natera’s tests for patients, Natera pe...
Natera Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong, broad-based operational momentum—robust revenue and unit growth (Q1 revenue $697M, +39% YoY), record oncology volumes (249k MRD tests, +55% YoY), successful new-product launches (Fetal Focus approaching ~200k annualized orders), improved ASPs (Signatera ~$1,250) and raised guidance (revenue guide midpoint reset up >$120M; gross margin guidance to 65% midpoint). Transient headwinds (work-in-process timing, acquisition-related COGS, temporary DSO impact, weather effects, and some coverage/authorization friction) were identified but characterized as short-term or manageable. Given the magnitude and number of positive operational and financial developments and management's upward guide and investment posture, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $697 million, up 39% year-over-year, driven by strong volume and ASP expansion.
Negative Updates
Work-in-Process Impact on Margins
A high level of samples in process at quarter-end reduced the sent-to-reported ratio to ~92% (vs normal 95%–96%), creating roughly a 1.5%–2% gross margin headwind in Q1.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $697 million, up 39% year-over-year, driven by strong volume and ASP expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management materially raised guidance: they reset the full-year revenue guide up by more than $120 million at the midpoint and lifted full-year gross margin guidance to 65% at the midpoint (Q1 revenue was $697 million, +39% YoY, with Q1 gross margin just under 65%). They also increased R&D spend by $50 million to accelerate oncology trials, noted roughly $60 million of revenue growth in the quarter, and called out key pricing and volume drivers—Signatera ASPs at about $1,250 (expected to exit 2026 near $1,275) with a long‑term ASP target of $2,000 (which at current annualized volumes would imply ~ $750 million of incremental revenue/gross profit). Underpinning the guide are operational metrics: 249k clinical oncology units in Q1 (+55% YoY), a >1 million MRD annual run rate, >1 million total units in the quarter, a 92% received‑to‑reported ratio this quarter (vs. a normal 95–96%, a ~2‑point margin headwind), an estimated ~$25 million of one‑time Q1 SG&A non‑cash charges, Fetal Focus approaching a ~200k annualized order run rate, and FIND CRC enrollment on pace to finish in Q3 2026 (25–40k target; ~70 CRC cases; ~1,400 advanced adenomas) toward a 2027 PMA readout.Natera Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.50B | 2.31B | 1.70B | 1.08B | 820.22M | 625.49M |
| Gross Profit | 1.63B | 1.50B | 1.02B | 492.74M | 363.97M | 307.07M |
| EBITDA | -274.63M | -264.02M | -148.08M | -383.28M | -507.03M | -451.54M |
| Net Income | -226.31M | -208.16M | -190.43M | -434.80M | -547.80M | -471.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.61B | 2.51B | 1.66B | 1.44B | 1.39B | 1.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.09B | 1.08B | 968.28M | 878.98M | 898.39M | 914.28M |
| Total Debt | 240.08M | 214.38M | 187.12M | 441.99M | 446.22M | 397.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 840.38M | 795.62M | 465.31M | 676.37M | 688.73M | 583.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.20B | 765.33M | 705.74M | 653.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 92.01M | 109.11M | 69.24M | -286.15M | -479.20M | -376.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 211.02M | 215.30M | 135.66M | -246.96M | -431.50M | -335.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -147.53M | -132.21M | 137.62M | 168.50M | 330.34M | -205.19M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 50.67M | 47.46M | 30.20M | 254.46M | 482.64M | 576.19M |
Natera Technical Analysis
Positive
208.40
Price Trends
201.32
Positive
211.15
Negative
201.54
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.05
Negative
50.98
Neutral
69.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 208.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 202.13, above the 50-day MA of 201.32, and above the 200-day MA of 201.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -1.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRA.
Natera Risk Analysis
Natera disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natera reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natera Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $21.85B | 34.48 | 33.99% | ― | 1.25% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $29.10B | -83.14 | -15.13% | ― | 36.59% | -11.94% | |
57 Neutral | $1.20B | -2.80 | -11.82% | ― | 10.95% | -26.52% | |
56 Neutral | $485.93M | -4.94 | -6.70% | ― | 9.54% | -79.16% | |
56 Neutral | $15.77B | -27.05 | 184.27% | ― | 39.56% | -0.63% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NTRA
Natera
203.19
49.87
32.53%
ILMN
Illumina
144.41
64.04
79.68%
NEO
NeoGenomics
9.23
1.82
24.56%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
17.11
-3.20
-15.76%
GH
Guardant Health
118.95
80.95
213.03%
Natera Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Natera Expands Board, Appoints Eric Rubin as Director
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
Natera’s Board of Directors has expanded from ten to eleven members and appointed Eric Rubin as an independent Class I director, effective March 26, 2026, with a term running until the 2028 annual meeting of stockholders. The board also name...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.