Natera (NTRA)
NASDAQ:NTRA
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Natera
(NASDAQ:NTRA)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$214.00
▲(10.86% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (strong revenue scale, expanding gross margins, and newly positive/free cash flow) and constructive 2026 guidance with solid operational momentum. These positives are tempered by continued GAAP losses/negative P/E and a mixed technical setup with weaker intermediate-term trend signals.
Positive Factors
Revenue Scale & Growth
Sustained multi-year revenue scaling and recent 40% YoY growth create durable operating leverage. A larger revenue base spreads fixed lab and R&D costs, strengthens negotiating position with payers and pharma partners, and supports reinvestment in commercialization and evidence generation.
Negative Factors
Ongoing GAAP Losses / Negative ROE
Despite revenue and margin progress, negative ROE and continued GAAP losses mean shareholder value isn't yet being created. The company must convert operational momentum into sustained net profitability to eliminate reliance on external capital and justify long‑term equity returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Scale & Growth
Sustained multi-year revenue scaling and recent 40% YoY growth create durable operating leverage. A larger revenue base spreads fixed lab and R&D costs, strengthens negotiating position with payers and pharma partners, and supports reinvestment in commercialization and evidence generation.
Read all positive factors
Natera (NTRA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.36B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth38.17%
EPS Growth-28.77%
CountryUS
Employees4,424
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding141,731,250
10 Day Avg. Volume1,216,225
30 Day Avg. Volume1,236,146
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio230.22
Price to Book (P/B)18.29
Price to Sales (P/S)13.58
P/FCF Ratio287.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-107.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$257.27Price Target Upside33.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.67B
Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as wel...
How the Company Makes Money
Natera makes money primarily by providing genetic and molecular diagnostic testing services and being reimbursed for those tests. Its core revenue model is fee-for-service: clinicians and health systems order Natera’s tests for patients, Natera pe...
Natera Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong set of operational and financial achievements: record testing volumes, robust 40% YoY revenue growth, materially improved gross margins (66.9% reported; 63.7% organic), improved collections (DSO down to 47 days), >$107M cash flow for 2025, and a clear product and clinical momentum (Signatera, Latitude submission, phased variants, Fetal Focus, Prospera trials). Management provided confident 2026 guidance (revenue $2.62B–$2.7B; gross margin 63%–65%) while acknowledging a few nonrecurring Q4 tailwinds and the ongoing dependency on reimbursement expansion for further ASP/margin upside. Risks called out include one-time accounting benefits, potential non-repeatability of some Q4 drivers, and the need for broader MolDX/Medicare coverage for a subset of indications. Overall, the positives (strong growth, margin expansion, cash generation, major product/technology advances and clinical evidence) substantially outweigh the identified risks and caveats.Positive Updates
Strong Volume and MRD Adoption
Processed ~924,000 tests in Q4 2025; record MRD clinical unit volume with 225,000 MRD tests in Q4. MRD clinical units grew ~56% year-over-year, and internal data estimates >50% of U.S. oncologists ordered a Signatera test in the quarter.
Negative Updates
One-Time Items and Non-Recurring Effects
Q4 net income was aided by a below-the-line deferred tax item related to the Foresight acquisition — a one-time benefit that is not indicative of recurring profitability.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Volume and MRD Adoption
Processed ~924,000 tests in Q4 2025; record MRD clinical unit volume with 225,000 MRD tests in Q4. MRD clinical units grew ~56% year-over-year, and internal data estimates >50% of U.S. oncologists ordered a Signatera test in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management initiated 2026 guidance of $2.62–$2.70 billion in revenue with gross margins of 63%–65%, holding SG&A roughly flat, guiding OpEx to grow about 9.5% at the midpoint, and expecting another strong cash‑flow year after generating over $107 million in cash flow in 2025 and carrying >$1 billion in cash and securities. That guide is supported by Q4 results of ~924,000 tests processed, ~225,000 MRD clinical units (MRD units +56% YoY), ~$666 million in Q4 revenue (~40% YoY growth), a Q4 gross margin of 66.9% (organic 63.7% ex-true-ups; 2025 ex‑true‑ups gross margin ~61.5%), ~47 day DSO (vs. 68 days in Q4 2024) and ~$60 million of true‑ups in the quarter; the midpoint implies roughly 25% growth over 2025 when backing out true‑ups. Management expects Signatera ASPs to step up from ~ $1,225 in Q4 with roughly $30 of additional ASP upside embedded in the guide (after a ~$20 Q4 step), anticipates sequential quarter‑over‑quarter growth for Signatera and Prospera (women’s health seasonality: Q1 high, Q2 down, Q3/Q4 recover), assumes limited modeled contribution from future true‑ups, and cited technology-driven margin and market upside including phased‑variant analytics with an LOD95 of ~3 parts per 10 million and detection below 1 per 10 million (10–100x lower LOD versus conventional methods).Natera Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.31B | 1.70B | 1.08B | 820.22M | 625.49M |
| Gross Profit | 1.50B | 1.02B | 492.74M | 363.97M | 307.07M |
| EBITDA | -264.02M | -148.08M | -383.28M | -507.03M | -451.54M |
| Net Income | -208.16M | -190.43M | -434.80M | -547.80M | -471.72M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.51B | 1.66B | 1.44B | 1.39B | 1.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.08B | 968.28M | 878.98M | 898.39M | 914.28M |
| Total Debt | 214.38M | 187.12M | 441.99M | 446.22M | 397.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 795.62M | 465.31M | 676.37M | 688.73M | 583.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.71B | 1.20B | 765.33M | 705.74M | 653.30M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 109.11M | 69.24M | -286.15M | -479.20M | -376.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 215.30M | 135.66M | -246.96M | -431.50M | -335.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -132.21M | 137.62M | 168.50M | 330.34M | -205.19M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 47.46M | 30.20M | 254.46M | 482.64M | 576.19M |
Natera Technical Analysis
Negative
193.03
Price Trends
205.04
Negative
219.44
Negative
193.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.60
Negative
43.79
Neutral
54.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 193.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 198.48, below the 50-day MA of 205.04, and below the 200-day MA of 193.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NTRA.
Natera Risk Analysis
Natera disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natera reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natera Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $27.36B | -150.47 | -15.28% | ― | 38.17% | -28.77% | |
61 Neutral | $18.49B | 24.21 | 34.94% | ― | -2.39% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $998.26M | -2.79 | -12.64% | ― | 10.10% | -44.29% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $450.66M | -13.36 | -5.40% | ― | 13.60% | 74.64% | |
49 Neutral | $10.31B | -30.76 | 164.85% | ― | 30.38% | 24.17% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NTRA
Natera
193.03
44.58
30.03%
ILMN
Illumina
120.93
45.87
61.11%
NEO
NeoGenomics
7.69
-2.03
-20.88%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
14.43
-4.52
-23.85%
GH
Guardant Health
78.60
33.44
74.05%
Natera Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Natera Expands Board, Appoints Eric Rubin as Director
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
Natera’s Board of Directors has expanded from ten to eleven members and appointed Eric Rubin as an independent Class I director, effective March 26, 2026, with a term running until the 2028 annual meeting of stockholders. The board also name...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.