Natera (NTRA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $33.75B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 38.17%
• EPS Growth: -28.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,424
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.64
• Shares Outstanding: 138,321,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,215,690
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,537,687
• PEG Ratio: 1.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 16.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 285.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -79.02
• 1Y Price Target: $234.31
• Price Target Upside: -2.02% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): -2.39
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.22B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $266.00 ▲(11.23% Upside)

Natera's overall stock score is driven by strong technical momentum and positive earnings call sentiment, highlighting robust revenue growth and strategic expansions. However, ongoing profitability challenges and a negative P/E ratio weigh on the valuation, while the recent acquisition strengthens its market position in precision oncology.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Natera's products and services, enhancing its market position and supporting long-term expansion.

Strategic Acquisition

The acquisition strengthens Natera's capabilities in MRD testing and expands its IP portfolio, positioning it as a leader in precision oncology.

Gross Margin Improvement

Improved gross margins reflect operational efficiency and cost management, enhancing profitability potential and financial stability.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Persistent profitability challenges, as indicated by negative ROE, could hinder long-term financial health and investor confidence.

Increased Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses could pressure margins and affect cash flow, potentially impacting future profitability and growth investments.

Early Cancer Detection Challenges

Uncertainty in commercializing early cancer detection could delay revenue streams and impact strategic goals in oncology expansion.

Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father. In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection. The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Natera generates revenue primarily through the sale of its genetic testing services, which include prenatal testing, carrier screening, and oncology testing. The company operates a business model centered on laboratory services, where it processes samples and provides test results to healthcare providers and patients. Key revenue streams include direct sales of tests, reimbursement from insurance companies, and partnerships with healthcare organizations that enhance its market reach. Natera has also established collaborations with pharmaceutical companies for companion diagnostic testing and clinical trials, contributing to its revenue. The company's focus on expanding its testing portfolio and increasing utilization rates in its core markets plays a significant role in driving growth and earnings.

Natera Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Natera demonstrates strong revenue growth and improving gross margins, which are positive indicators of operational efficiency. However, the company continues to face profitability challenges, with negative net income and EBIT margins. The balance sheet shows a favorable debt position, but the negative return on equity highlights ongoing financial performance issues. Cash flow metrics are improving, but the company needs to achieve consistent positive cash flow to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

Natera's revenue has shown consistent growth, with a TTM growth rate of 7.76%. Gross profit margins have improved to 63.73% in TTM, indicating strong operational efficiency. However, the company is still facing challenges with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The net profit margin has slightly worsened to -14.61% in TTM, reflecting ongoing losses.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.15 in TTM, indicating a relatively low level of leverage compared to previous years. However, the return on equity remains negative at -25.07%, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Natera's free cash flow has shown significant growth, with a TTM growth rate of 144.2%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, indicating some improvement in cash generation relative to net losses. However, the company still faces challenges in achieving positive free cash flow to net income ratios consistently.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.12B	1.70B	1.08B	820.22M	625.49M	391.00M
Gross Profit	1.35B	1.02B	492.74M	363.97M	307.07M	187.38M
EBITDA	-268.77M	-148.08M	-383.28M	-507.03M	-451.54M	-205.95M
Net Income	-309.19M	-190.43M	-434.80M	-547.80M	-471.72M	-229.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.82B	1.66B	1.44B	1.39B	1.24B	932.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.04B	968.28M	878.98M	898.39M	914.28M	737.27M
Total Debt	184.72M	187.12M	441.99M	446.22M	397.23M	281.09M
Total Liabilities	569.29M	465.31M	676.37M	688.73M	583.18M	445.92M
Stockholders Equity	1.25B	1.20B	765.33M	705.74M	653.30M	486.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	93.56M	69.24M	-286.15M	-479.20M	-376.27M	-202.12M
Operating Cash Flow	194.30M	135.66M	-246.96M	-431.50M	-335.24M	-182.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-71.73M	137.62M	168.50M	330.34M	-205.19M	-331.46M
Financing Cash Flow	26.03M	30.20M	254.46M	482.64M	576.19M	500.85M

Natera Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 239.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 239.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 225.39, above the 50-day MA of 199.47, and above the 200-day MA of 166.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 12.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRA.

Natera Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NTRA	73 Outperform	$33.75B	―	-29.02%	―	38.17%	-28.77%
ILMN	71 Outperform	$19.71B	28.51	31.20%	―	-2.39%	―
EXAS	70 Outperform	$19.18B	―	-34.54%	―	14.47%	-353.69%
GH	61 Neutral	$13.20B	―	―	―	30.38%	24.17%
FLGT	57 Neutral	$859.06M	―	-3.80%	―	13.60%	74.64%
NEO	55 Neutral	$1.54B	―	-12.99%	―	10.10%	-44.29%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Natera Corporate Events

Natera Acquires Foresight Diagnostics for $275 Million

On December 4, 2025, Natera, Inc. completed its acquisition of Foresight Diagnostics, a cancer diagnostics company specializing in molecular residual disease detection in B-cell lymphomas. This strategic acquisition, valued at $275 million upfront with potential earnouts, enhances Natera’s capabilities in personalized MRD testing and expands its intellectual property portfolio. The integration of Foresight’s phased variant technology into Natera’s Signatera platform is expected to strengthen test performance across solid tumors and accelerate MRD adoption in lymphoma. This move positions Natera at the forefront of precision oncology, promising improved value for patients, clinicians, and biopharma partners.