Natera (NTRA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.84B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: 51.50%
• EPS Growth: 53.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,424
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 136,546,590
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,444,725
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,277,418
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $201.56
• Price Target Upside: 46.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $153.00 ▲(10.87%Upside)

Natera's strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlight robust revenue growth and strategic advancements in diagnostics, contributing positively to the stock score. However, technical indicators and valuation concerns, driven by a negative P/E ratio and bearish technical signals, weigh down the overall score.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Natera Inc. delivered a strong performance with record growth in its Signatera MRD business, leading analysts to reiterate a Buy rating and raise the price target to $195.

Market Position

NTRA remains the front-runner in the $20B MRD market, with strong unit volume growth and continued momentum of Signatera.

Revenue Guidance

The company increased its 2025 revenue guidance to between $1.94 billion and $2.02 billion, reflecting about 26% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

Negative Factors

Competition

New entrants are rapidly entering the MRD market, aiming to capture a share of this large opportunity, increasing competition for NTRA.

Operating Expenses

Recent sell-off in NTRA shares has led to increased investor inquiries about potential increases in operating expenses and emerging competition.

Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father. In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection. The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Natera makes money primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests and services. The company generates revenue by providing genetic testing solutions to healthcare professionals, hospitals, and clinics. Its key revenue streams include its flagship Panorama non-invasive prenatal test, which screens for fetal chromosomal abnormalities, the Prospera transplant assessment test for monitoring organ transplant rejection, and the Signatera test for residual disease detection in oncology. Natera also partners with pharmaceutical companies to use its technology in clinical trials and drug development, further enhancing its revenue potential. The company benefits from the growing demand for personalized medicine and the increasing adoption of genetic testing in healthcare.

Natera Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Natera demonstrates strong revenue growth and an improving cash flow position, reflecting a robust market presence and effective cash management. However, consistent net losses and negative profit margins highlight challenges in achieving profitability. The balance sheet is solid with a strong equity position and manageable debt levels.

Income Statement

Natera's revenue trajectory shows robust growth with a significant increase from $391 million in 2020 to $1.83 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. This growth trend is impressive, indicating strong market demand. However, the company has consistently posted negative EBIT and net income, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. The gross profit margin has improved, suggesting operational efficiencies, but the net profit margin remains negative, impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

Natera maintains a solid equity base, with stockholders' equity increasing from $486 million in 2020 to $1.24 billion in TTM 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting prudent debt management. Additionally, the company has a strong equity ratio, indicative of financial stability. However, the consistent net losses present a risk to long-term equity growth, despite the currently favorable debt levels.

Cash Flow

The company has shown a positive trend in free cash flow, growing from a deficit to a surplus of $85 million in TTM 2025. Operating cash flow has also turned positive, demonstrating improved cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash generation is better than accounting earnings, which is a positive sign. However, the history of negative free cash flow ratios could pose potential challenges if not managed carefully.

Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
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Investing Cash Flow
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Natera Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 138.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 138 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 149.88, below the 50-day MA of 157.65, and below the 200-day MA of 154.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.35 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.10 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NTRA.

Natera Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
QGEN	75 Outperform	$11.04B	122.14	2.67%	2.46%	3.31%	-72.63%
DGX	71 Outperform	$18.77B	20.07	13.65%	1.85%	12.58%	13.00%
NTRA	64 Neutral	$18.84B	―	-18.66%	―	51.50%	53.23%
ILMN	55 Neutral	$17.39B	―	-23.82%	―	-3.47%	25.55%
EXAS	54 Neutral	$9.06B	―	-36.89%	―	11.57%	-315.25%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.59B	0.18	-63.14%	2.16%	16.34%	0.64%
GH	45 Neutral	$5.48B	―	-4584.47%	―	28.20%	13.87%

Natera Corporate Events

Natera Approves Equity Plan Amendment at Annual Meeting

On June 12, 2025, Natera, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where an amendment to the 2015 Equity Incentive Plan was approved, increasing the shares reserved for issuance by 3.6 million. This decision, along with the election of directors and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm, reflects Natera’s strategic focus on enhancing its equity structure and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTRA) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Natera stock, see the NTRA Stock Forecast page.