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Exact Sciences Corp. (EXAS)
NASDAQ:EXAS
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Exact Sciences
(NASDAQ:EXAS)
61Neutral
Positive Factors
Customer Engagement
The sales force turnaround is delivering results with record calls per day and increased customer engagement by field representatives.
Growth Potential
EXAS management feels very strong about near-term growth and there could be upside to 2025 guidance.
Product Performance
The Cologuard Plus launch is expected to drive higher performance, price, and margins for EXAS.
Negative Factors
Market Challenges
The competitive blood test market poses a challenge as EXAS focuses on perfecting CG Blood.
Operational Risks
The year of investment needed for scaling could introduce operational risks despite the potential for 60% profit growth.
Profitability Concerns
While aiming for growth, the focus on rescreen as the largest growth driver might pressure margins if not managed effectively.
Exact Sciences (EXAS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.74B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth11.57%
EPS Growth-315.25%
CountryUS
Employees6,900
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength41
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.54
Shares Outstanding188,637,680
10 Day Avg. Volume3,150,086
30 Day Avg. Volume3,149,769
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-8.78
Price to Book (P/B)4.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio50.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$69.65Price Target Upside20.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
Exact Sciences Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExact Sciences Corporation provides cancer screening and diagnostic test products in the United States and internationally. The company offers Cologuard, a non-invasive stool-based DNA screening test to detect DNA and hemoglobin biomarkers associated with colorectal cancer and pre-cancer. It also provides Oncotype DX, a gene expression tests for breast, prostate, and colon cancers; Oncotype Test, a tissue test delivering tumor profiling to aid therapy selection for patients with advanced, metastatic, refractory, or recurrent cancer; Oncotype DX AR-V7 Nucleus Detect Test, a liquid-based test for advanced stage prostate cancer; Oncomap ExTra, that provides a complete biological picture of certain refractory, rare, or aggressive cancers; and Covid-19 testing services. The company's pipeline products focus on enhancing the Cologuard test's performance characteristics and developing blood and other fluid-based tests. It has license agreements with MAYO Foundation for Medical Education and Research; and Hologic, Inc. Exact Sciences Corporation was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.
How the Company Makes MoneyExact Sciences generates revenue primarily through the sales of its flagship product, Cologuard, a non-invasive stool-based DNA test for colorectal cancer screening. The company partners with healthcare providers and insurance companies to make Cologuard accessible to a broad patient base, ensuring reimbursement and widespread adoption. Revenue is also driven by the scaling of its laboratory operations and research services. Moreover, Exact Sciences invests in research and development to expand its diagnostic test offerings for other types of cancer, potentially broadening its revenue streams as these products come to market.
Exact Sciences Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Exact Sciences presents a mixed financial picture. The company showcases robust revenue growth and a solid gross profit margin, but faces challenges in achieving profitability with negative net and EBIT margins. The balance sheet is relatively stable with moderate leverage and a solid equity base, yet profitability improvements are needed. Cash flow metrics display positive momentum, though converting earnings into free cash flow remains an area for improvement. Focus on enhancing profitability and cash conversion will be critical for strengthening financial health.Income Statement
Exact Sciences shows a consistent revenue growth trend, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 2.5% compared to the previous year. However, the company is currently experiencing significant profitability challenges, with a negative net profit margin of -36.1% and a negative EBIT margin of -36.5%. The gross profit margin is relatively strong at 68.2%, indicating good management of direct costs. Overall, the income statement reflects growth potential but significant profitability issues.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Exact Sciences indicates moderate financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.05, suggesting a balanced approach to leverage. The equity ratio is 41.9%, showing a stable foundation of equity financing. However, the return on equity is negative due to persistent net losses, highlighting the need for improved profitability to enhance shareholder value.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Exact Sciences has shown improvement in cash flow metrics, with a TTM free cash flow growth rate of 160.3%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.32, reflecting some ability to convert earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating challenges in generating free cash flow from operations. While there is positive cash flow momentum, profitability issues remain a concern.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 2.83B | 2.76B | 2.50B | 2.08B | 1.77B | 1.49B | Gross Profit |
| 1.93B | 1.92B | 1.85B | 1.51B | 1.31B | 1.14B | EBIT |
| -1.03B | -1.05B | -215.01M | -577.54M | -835.47M | -558.35M | EBITDA |
| -848.74M | -788.73M | 41.88M | -386.74M | -617.73M | -632.86M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -1.02B | -1.03B | -204.15M | -623.51M | -595.63M | -848.53M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 652.09M | 1.04B | 777.64M | 632.06M | 1.03B | 1.84B | Total Assets |
| 6.38B | 5.93B | 6.47B | 6.23B | 6.68B | 4.93B | Total Debt |
| 2.56B | 2.75B | 2.55B | 2.45B | 2.36B | 1.46B | Net Debt |
| 2.21B | 2.15B | 1.95B | 2.20B | 2.05B | -27.11M | Total Liabilities |
| 3.24B | 3.53B | 3.33B | 3.18B | 3.30B | 2.10B | Stockholders Equity |
| 3.13B | 2.40B | 3.15B | 3.04B | 3.39B | 2.82B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 194.14M | 74.55M | 31.93M | -438.02M | -238.00M | 72.13M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 323.66M | 210.54M | 156.12M | -223.56M | -102.24M | 136.48M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -305.15M | -442.15M | 49.68M | 74.07M | -1.08B | -702.04M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -21.30M | 231.87M | 159.77M | 76.48M | 8.47M | 1.88B |
Exact Sciences Technical Analysis
Positive
57.81
Price Trends
47.03
Positive
50.00
Positive
56.17
Positive
Market Momentum
3.03
Negative
74.94
Negative
88.52
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXAS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.22, above the 50-day MA of 47.03, and above the 200-day MA of 56.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.94 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXAS.
Exact Sciences Risk Analysis
Exact Sciences disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Exact Sciences reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Exact Sciences Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $9.25B | 102.54 | 2.67% | ― | 3.31% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $20.93B | ― | -18.66% | ― | 51.50% | 53.23% | |
61 Neutral | $10.74B | ― | -36.89% | ― | 11.57% | -315.25% | |
53 Neutral | $13.13B | ― | -23.82% | ― | -3.47% | 25.55% | |
52 Neutral | $5.19B | 3.04 | -44.64% | 2.82% | 16.45% | -0.53% | |
52 Neutral | $1.04B | ― | -8.57% | ― | 10.10% | 8.79% | |
52 Neutral | $4.99B | ― | -4584.47% | ― | 28.20% | 13.87% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
EXAS
Exact Sciences
57.81
4.29
8.02%
ILMN
Illumina
84.21
-20.37
-19.48%
QGEN
Qiagen
42.70
-2.31
-5.13%
NEO
NeoGenomics
7.99
-6.79
-45.94%
NTRA
Natera
154.53
46.27
42.74%
GH
Guardant Health
39.97
16.40
69.58%
Exact Sciences Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 22.58%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth, improved profitability, and successful product launches, indicating a strong start to 2025. However, challenges with commercial payer coverage for new products and the impact of a severe flu season were noted.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Core revenue grew by 11%, with first-quarter revenue $19 million above the midpoint of guidance. Screening revenue increased by 14% to $540 million.
Improved Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA increased by 61% to $63 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 280 basis points.
Successful Product Launches
Launched Cologuard Plus with Medicare coverage and Oncodetect, a molecular residual disease test, positioned for growth in precision oncology.
Customer Satisfaction and Engagement
Customer satisfaction reached an all-time high in Q1, and customer engagement by the field force increased by more than 30% year-over-year.
Cash Flow Improvements
Free cash flow reached break-even, a year-over-year improvement of $120 million.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Commercial Payer Coverage for Cologuard Plus
Base assumption for coverage is limited to Medicare Part B patients, with broader commercial payer coverage still under discussion.
Impact of Influenza Season
The company faced challenges navigating through one of the worst flu seasons in years.
Incremental Margin Expectations
While the revenue guidance increased by $40 million, the EBITDA guidance increased by $50 million, indicating a high-thirties incremental margin, which may need to improve over time.
Company Guidance
During the recent earnings call, Exact Sciences provided guidance for 2025, highlighting several key metrics and growth drivers. The company expects total revenue for the year to be between $3.07 billion and $3.12 billion, an increase of $40 million at the midpoint, with second-quarter revenue projected to range from $765 million to $780 million. Screening revenue is anticipated to be between $2.39 billion and $2.425 billion for the year, while precision oncology revenue is forecasted to be between $680 million and $695 million. Additionally, Exact Sciences raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $425 million and $455 million, reflecting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.2% at the midpoint. The company reported strong first-quarter results, with core revenue growth of 11%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 61%, and a 280 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin. Key growth drivers include the successful launch of Cologuard Plus, the expansion of the Rescreen program, and improvements in commercial execution, evidenced by a 30% increase in customer engagement and the addition of 190,000 new ordering providers.Exact Sciences Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Exact Sciences Appoints Leslie Trigg to Board
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025
On April 29, 2025, Exact Sciences Corporation appointed Leslie Trigg as a Class II member of its Board of Directors, following the resignation of Kathleen Sebelius. Ms. Trigg, with over 25 years of experience in the healthcare and medical device industries, is expected to bring valuable leadership and investor relations skills to the company, potentially strengthening its market position.
Spark’s Take on EXAS Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, EXAS is a Neutral.
Exact Sciences scores moderately due to its robust revenue growth and positive outlook, as highlighted in the earnings call. However, profitability issues, a significant impairment charge, and bearish technical indicators weigh heavily on the stock’s performance. The absence of dividends and negative earnings further affect its valuation appeal.
To see Spark’s full report on EXAS stock, click here.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.