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Illumina (ILMN)
NASDAQ:ILMN

Illumina (ILMN) AI Stock Analysis

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Illumina

(NASDAQ:ILMN)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$92.00
▼(-8.31%Downside)
Illumina's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, with significant losses and revenue declines. Technical analysis indicates some bullish momentum, but valuation remains low due to negative earnings and no dividends. The earnings call highlights both opportunities and risks, with corporate events like the SomaLogic acquisition expected to support long-term growth but not immediately impactful.
Positive Factors
Product Development
Owning SomaLogic IP outright will enable ILMN to accelerate product launches, including low to mid throughput panels and kits for other sample types.
Revenue Growth
The acquisition of SomaLogic is expected to be accretive to growth, with high single-digit to low double-digit growth driven primarily by kit sales.
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition of SomaLogic is seen as a solid strategic fit for Illumina, particularly given their prior relationship and the potential synergies over time.
Negative Factors
Competitive Landscape
Macroeconomic challenges and potential competitive threats have negatively impacted the company's financial performance and investor sentiment.
Earnings Impact
The transaction is expected to be dilutive in the near term and won't be accretive to earnings until 2028 or beyond.
Market Uncertainty
The proteomics market is relatively nascent, and there is substantial uncertainty due to market conditions and potential margin dilution from SomaLogic.

Illumina (ILMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Illumina Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIllumina, Inc. is a leading biotechnology company that specializes in the development, manufacturing, and marketing of life science tools and integrated systems for large-scale analysis of genetic variation and function. The company primarily operates in the genomics sector, providing innovative sequencing and array-based solutions that are used in a variety of applications including genetic research, clinical diagnostics, agriculture, and forensics. Illumina's core products include sequencing systems, consumables, and software that support researchers and clinicians in their pursuit of groundbreaking discoveries and advancements in personalized medicine.
How the Company Makes MoneyIllumina makes money through the sale of its sequencing systems and related consumables, which are essential for conducting genomic analysis. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of sequencing instruments, consumables (such as reagents and flow cells), and services, including software and informatics solutions. A significant portion of Illumina’s revenue is derived from ongoing consumable sales, as these are required for each sequencing run. Additionally, Illumina generates income through service contracts, training, and support services. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with research institutions, healthcare providers, and pharmaceutical companies also contribute to its earnings by expanding its market reach and driving innovation in genomic applications. The company's focus on maintaining a robust portfolio of intellectual property and continuous investment in research and development further solidify its revenue model.

Illumina Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 26.09%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strong performance in certain areas like NovaSeq X placements and innovation pipeline advancements, but significant challenges in the Greater China region, research funding uncertainty, and tariff impacts. While growth areas show promise, the lowlights pose substantial risks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Performance of NovaSeq X Instruments
NovaSeq X instruments exceeded expectations with over 60 placements in Q1, following more than 90 placements in Q4. The transition to X continues to progress well, particularly among clinical customers.
Innovation Pipeline Advancements
Illumina announced a new spatial offering with significantly larger capture area, higher resolution, and greater sensitivity. Early customer feedback for this offering has been very positive.
Robust Sequencing Activity
Total sequencing gigabase output on connected high and mid throughput instruments grew at a rate of more than 30% year-over-year, with strong growth from both clinical and research customers.
Cost Reduction Initiatives
Illumina executed a $100 million cost reduction program to address macroeconomic challenges, realizing partial benefits in Q1 and expecting full savings in 2025.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Greater China Region
Illumina's ability to export sequencing instruments to China has been restricted, leading to a projected significant reduction in revenue from the region in 2025.
Research Funding Uncertainty
Ongoing uncertainty in U.S. research funding is affecting purchasing timelines, with expected mid-double-digit declines in research and academia markets.
Impact of New Tariffs
The U.S. government enacted a baseline import tariff of 10%, increasing costs for Illumina. The estimated gross cost of tariffs for 2025 is approximately $85 million.
Flat Year-Over-Year Revenue
First quarter revenue of $1.04 billion was down 1.4% year-over-year on an as-reported basis, with constant currency revenue roughly flat.
Company Guidance
During the Illumina First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance reflecting significant macroeconomic challenges, including geopolitical tensions and funding uncertainties. The company revised its revenue expectations, anticipating a decline of 3% to 1% year-over-year, with specific guidance for the Greater China region due to export restrictions impacting instrument placements. Despite these headwinds, Illumina reported Q1 revenue of $1.04 billion, at the upper end of its guidance, with EPS of $0.97. The company is focused on achieving long-term financial goals, including high single-digit revenue growth and 500 basis point margin expansions by 2027. Illumina is implementing a $100 million cost reduction program to mitigate the impact of new U.S. tariffs, which are projected to cost the company $85 million in 2025. The guidance reflects confidence in the resilience of its core business, excluding Greater China, anticipating flat to 2% growth outside this region.

Illumina Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Illumina faces significant financial challenges, primarily driven by operational inefficiencies and declining revenues. While gross margins remain strong, persistent losses impact overall financial health. The balance sheet is stable, yet moderately leveraged, and cash flows show some resilience and improvement. Strategic focus on improving operational efficiency and revenue growth is essential for enhancing financial performance.
Income Statement
40
Negative
The income statement reveals significant challenges. Gross profit margin is healthy at approximately 66.3% for TTM, yet the company faces declining revenues and negative profitability. Net income has been negative for the last few periods, with a net loss of $965 million in TTM. Revenue growth is negative, with a notable decline from $4.58 billion in 2022 to $4.34 billion in TTM 2025. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. These factors contribute to a weak financial position in terms of income generation.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a moderately leveraged position. The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 1.10 in TTM, indicating some reliance on debt for financing. However, the equity ratio is reasonable at 38.3%. Return on equity is negative due to persistent losses, impacting shareholder value. Despite these issues, the company maintains a stable asset base, which provides some balance sheet strength.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
The cash flow statement shows some positive trends, with operating cash flow improving to $1 billion in TTM, reflecting better cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow has also increased to $869 million in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating that cash generation is better than reported earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is impacted by negative net income, limiting the overall score.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.34B4.37B4.50B4.58B4.53B3.24B
Gross Profit2.88B2.86B2.74B2.97B3.15B2.20B
EBITDA-465.00M-725.00M-608.00M-3.92B747.00M767.00M
Net Income-965.00M-1.22B-1.16B-4.40B762.00M656.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.18B6.30B10.11B12.25B15.22B7.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.24B1.22B1.05B2.04B1.34B3.47B
Total Debt2.61B2.62B2.26B3.48B2.47B1.85B
Total Liabilities3.81B3.93B4.37B5.65B4.48B2.89B
Stockholders Equity2.37B2.37B5.75B6.60B10.74B4.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow869.00M709.00M282.00M-74.00M337.00M891.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.00B837.00M478.00M392.00M545.00M1.08B
Investing Cash Flow-193.00M-178.00M-231.00M-591.00M-1.07B-554.00M
Financing Cash Flow-800.00M-570.00M-1.21B1.00B-51.00M-766.00M

Illumina Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price100.34
Price Trends
50DMA
83.74
Positive
100DMA
84.88
Positive
200DMA
112.01
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
4.00
Negative
RSI
79.96
Negative
STOCH
86.73
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ILMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 100.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.12, above the 50-day MA of 83.74, and below the 200-day MA of 112.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.96 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.73 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ILMN.

Illumina Risk Analysis

Illumina disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Illumina reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Illumina Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$43.65B50.1559.33%5.56%4.66%
AA
79
Outperform
$34.22B29.7118.88%0.82%0.56%-4.08%
IQIQV
77
Outperform
$28.48B22.4421.65%2.84%-0.16%
TMTMO
73
Outperform
$159.10B24.7313.73%0.40%0.96%9.19%
DHDHR
72
Outperform
$144.92B39.267.22%0.63%-9.19%-12.75%
54
Neutral
$15.88B-23.82%-3.47%25.55%
51
Neutral
$7.50B0.32-61.87%2.27%17.10%1.59%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ILMN
Illumina
100.34
-8.18
-7.54%
A
Agilent
120.66
-4.74
-3.78%
DHR
Danaher
202.50
-35.50
-14.92%
IDXX
Idexx Laboratories
542.71
56.71
11.67%
TMO
Thermo Fisher
427.76
-110.58
-20.54%
IQV
IQVIA Holdings
164.65
-43.45
-20.88%

Illumina Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Illumina Acquires SomaLogic to Boost Proteomics
Positive
Jun 23, 2025

On June 22, 2025, Illumina entered into a definitive agreement to acquire SomaLogic and other assets from Standard BioTools for $350 million in cash, with additional performance-based milestones and royalties. This acquisition aims to enhance Illumina’s presence in the expanding proteomics market and advance its multiomics strategy, building on a co-development partnership with SomaLogic since 2021. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions, and is anticipated to be profitable by 2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (ILMN) stock is a Buy with a $180.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Illumina stock, see the ILMN Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Illumina Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 23, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Illumina, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where several key proposals were approved. These included the election of eleven directors to the board, the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 28, 2025, the approval of executive compensation, and the amendment of the 2015 Stock and Incentive Plan. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ILMN) stock is a Buy with a $160.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Illumina stock, see the ILMN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 24, 2025