Nomura Holdings (NMR)
NYSE:NMR
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Nomura Holdings
(NYSE:NMR)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▼(-4.39% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/30/26
The score is held back primarily by negative operating/free cash flow and high leverage, despite strong technical trend support, attractive valuation with a high dividend yield, and a generally positive earnings call highlighted by sustained ROE and a JPY 60bn buyback.
Positive Factors
Wealth Management recurring revenue and net inflows
Sustained, record recurring revenue and large net inflows in Wealth Management point to structurally higher fee predictability and client stickiness. Recurring assets of JPY 28.1trn and steady net inflows support stable earnings and reduce reliance on volatile trading income over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High financial leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio near 9x signals material reliance on borrowings and low equity cushions; this elevates sensitivity to market dislocations and interest-rate or funding-cost shocks. High leverage constrains capital flexibility and raises the risk profile for sustaining investments and distributions over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Wealth Management recurring revenue and net inflows
Sustained, record recurring revenue and large net inflows in Wealth Management point to structurally higher fee predictability and client stickiness. Recurring assets of JPY 28.1trn and steady net inflows support stable earnings and reduce reliance on volatile trading income over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Nomura Holdings (NMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.19B
Dividend Yield4.76%
Average Volume (3M)772.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.5
Beta (1Y)1.39
Revenue Growth-1.61%
EPS Growth37.04%
CountryUS
Employees26,850
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding3,088,562,500
10 Day Avg. Volume1,118,375
30 Day Avg. Volume772,060
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.79
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio-3.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48K
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda64.34
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.31B
Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nomura Holdings, Inc. provides various financial services to individuals, corporations, financial institutions, governments, and governmental agencies worldwide. It operates through three segments: Retail, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The...
How the Company Makes Money
Nomura primarily makes money by earning fees and trading-related income across its main business lines. In its Wealth Management business, it generates revenue from brokerage commissions and transaction fees on client trading, fees from distributi...
Nomura Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial achievements — record or all-time highs in AUM, recurring revenue, wholesale and wealth management revenues, durable ROE and a capital position that supported a JPY 60 billion buyback — indicating robust underlying momentum. Near-term headwinds include one-off acquisition and integration costs, higher expenses (including deferred compensation accounting impacts), and volatility-related losses in the digital-asset business. On balance, the positive, broad-based fundamental performance and capital actions outweighed the transitory and identifiable lowlights.Positive Updates
Group Revenue Growth and Strong ROE
Group-wide net revenue of JPY 551.8 billion in Q3, up 7% quarter-on-quarter; return on equity 10.3% for Q3 and 10.8% on a 9-month basis, meeting the 2030 quantitative ROE target (8%–10%+) for the seventh consecutive quarter.
Negative Updates
Profit Impact from One-Time Acquisition Costs
Investment Management pretax income fell 42% QoQ to JPY 17.9 billion primarily due to acquisition-related one-time expenses (Macquarie transaction) and weaker investment gains; the acquired business added ~JPY 25 trillion AUM, JPY 7 billion business revenue and ~JPY 11 billion total expenses (including one-offs and amortization) for the reporting period.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue Growth and Strong ROE
Group-wide net revenue of JPY 551.8 billion in Q3, up 7% quarter-on-quarter; return on equity 10.3% for Q3 and 10.8% on a 9-month basis, meeting the 2030 quantitative ROE target (8%–10%+) for the seventh consecutive quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated continued momentum into Q4 while flagging one‑offs and accounting impacts: Q3 group net revenue was JPY 551.8bn (↑7% qoq), income before taxes JPY 135.2bn (‑1%), net income JPY 91.6bn (‑1%), EPS JPY 30.19 and ROE 10.3% (9‑month ROE 10.8%); nine‑month income before taxes JPY 432.1bn (↑15% y/y), net income JPY 288.2bn (↑7%), EPS JPY 94.67. Business guidance highlighted Wealth Management net revenue JPY 132.5bn (↑14% qoq) and pretax JPY 58.5bn (↑29%) with recurring revenue JPY 52.7bn, net inflows to recurring assets JPY 503.9bn and recurring assets at JPY 28.1trn; Investment Management net revenue JPY 60.9bn (flat) and pretax JPY 17.9bn (‑42%) but AUM at JPY 134.7trn and net inflows JPY 115bn; Wholesale net revenue JPY 313.9bn (↑12%) with Global Markets JPY 256.8bn (↑9%), fixed income JPY 136.9bn (↑12%), equities JPY 119.9bn (↑5%) and Investment Banking JPY 57.1bn (↑31%); Banking net revenue JPY 13.7bn (↑7%) and pretax JPY 4.2bn (↑31%). Capital/costs: Tier 1 JPY 3.6trn (↑JPY 60bn), RWA JPY 24trn (↑JPY 700bn), CET1 ratio 12.8%; group expenses JPY 416.5bn (↑10% / JPY 37.7bn) including FX JPY 9bn and one‑offs JPY 13bn. They announced a share buyback (Feb 17–Sep 30) up to 100m shares / JPY 60bn; signalled January trends of WM revenue roughly flat vs Q3, GM broadly in line and IB slightly slower but with a solid pipeline; disclosed deferred‑comp impacts of ~JPY 8bn in Q3 and similar in Q4 with a peak ~JPY 15–16bn before normalisation; the Macquarie asset management consolidation added ~JPY 25trn AUM with ~JPY 7bn revenue / JPY 5bn operating costs (≈JPY 11bn total) and ~$100m expected integration costs over two years; and noted Laser Digital losses (≈JPY 10bn in EMEA) with tighter position limits to curb short‑term volatility while pursuing medium‑term growth.Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.36T | 4.51T | 3.97T | 2.30T | 1.37T | 1.41T |
| Gross Profit | 1.76T | 1.66T | 1.38T | 1.14T | 1.14T | 1.20T |
| EBITDA | 532.95B | 533.62B | 335.19B | 210.90B | 286.15B | 294.52B |
| Net Income | 370.05B | 340.74B | 165.86B | 92.79B | 143.00B | 153.12B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 60.37T | 56.80T | 55.15T | 47.77T | 43.41T | 42.52T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 34.65T | 5.51T | 5.15T | 4.52T | 3.64T | 4.16T |
| Total Debt | 31.79T | 31.35T | 30.96T | 26.15T | 23.48T | 23.30T |
| Total Liabilities | 56.76T | 53.22T | 51.70T | 44.55T | 40.44T | 39.76T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.49T | 3.47T | 3.35T | 3.15T | 2.91T | 2.69T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -868.58B | -13.14B | -865.99B | -974.16B | 545.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -678.61B | 132.64B | -694.82B | -862.83B | 665.77B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -848.65B | -887.94B | -233.22B | -593.18B | -139.03B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.68T | 1.01T | 1.28T | 1.11T | -269.93B |
Nomura Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
8.89
Price Trends
8.53
Negative
8.27
Negative
7.61
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.22
Negative
46.96
Neutral
35.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.73, above the 50-day MA of 8.53, and above the 200-day MA of 7.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NMR.
Nomura Holdings Risk Analysis
Nomura Holdings disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nomura Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $164.67B | 20.00 | 17.91% | 1.07% | 5.90% | 66.60% | |
70 Outperform | $28.26B | 14.06 | 16.94% | 1.26% | 6.45% | 5.85% | |
69 Neutral | $263.85B | 16.54 | 15.45% | 2.14% | 7.22% | 48.18% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $23.19B | 10.54 | 10.23% | 4.76% | -1.61% | 37.04% | |
64 Neutral | $255.27B | 16.00 | 13.81% | 1.55% | 2.31% | 44.49% | |
60 Neutral | $23.16B | 32.56 | 18.57% | 0.32% | 35.19% | -18.62% |
* Financial Sector Average
NMR
Nomura Holdings
8.15
2.52
44.76%
LPLA
LPL Financial
289.27
-22.43
-7.19%
MS
Morgan Stanley
166.17
61.06
58.09%
RJF
Raymond James Financial
143.40
14.84
11.54%
SCHW
Charles Schwab
92.36
18.40
24.88%
GS
Goldman Sachs Group
860.21
359.36
71.75%
Nomura Holdings Corporate Events
Nomura to Release FY2025/26 Q4 and Full-Year Results on April 24
Mar 19, 2026
Nomura Holdings said on March 19, 2026, that it plans to announce operating results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, on April 24 in Tokyo. The group will release financial statements and presentation materials on ...
Nomura Details Progress of ¥60 Billion Share Buyback Program in February 2026
Mar 12, 2026
Nomura Holdings disclosed a February 2026 share buyback update, detailing repurchases of 7,913,300 common shares between February 17 and February 27 for a total of about ¥11.3 billion. This activity is part of a board-approved program from Ja...
Nomura Wins Board Approval for ¥60 Billion Share Buyback Program
Feb 12, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on February 12, 2026 that it had authorized a substantial share repurchase program but had not yet executed any buybacks during the period from January 1 to January 31, 2026. ...
Nomura Posts Higher Nine-Month Earnings as Assets and Risk Exposure Rise
Feb 6, 2026
In a Form 6-K filed on February 6, 2026, Nomura Holdings reported results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, posting net revenue of 1,590.5 billion yen, up 10.5% year-on-year, and net income attributable to shareholders of 288.2 billion ...
Nomura Delivers Record Segment Earnings and Record AuM in Q3 FY2025/26, Launches Share Buyback and Capital Actions
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Nomura reported strong consolidated results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, with net revenue rising 7% quarter on quarter and 10% year on year to ¥551.8 billion and net income of ¥91.6...
Nomura Elevates Delaware Management Company to Specified Subsidiary After Macquarie Asset Management Deal
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Nomura Holdings reported that Delaware Management Company (DMC), a U.S.-based investment management and advisory firm, has become a specified subsidiary after Nomura completed the acquisition of Macquarie Group’s U.S. an...
Nomura Posts Higher Nine-Month Profit and Expands Balance Sheet Amid Market Uncertainty
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Nomura Holdings reported its consolidated financial results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, showing a 10.5% year-on-year rise in net revenue to ¥1.59 trillion and a 15.5% increase in income before income taxe...
Nomura Publishes Updated Corporate Governance Report and Reaffirms Strategic Shareholding Cuts
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Nomura Holdings filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to furnish an English translation of its Corporate Governance Report, originally submitted the same day to the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The report ...
Nomura Nears Completion of ¥60 Billion Share Buyback Program by Year-End 2025
Jan 14, 2026
Nomura Holdings, Inc. filed a Form 6-K on January 14, 2026, disclosing an English translation of its Share Buyback Report for the period from December 1 to December 31, 2025. The report shows that under a board-authorized buyback program approved ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.