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Nomura Holdings
(NYSE:NMR)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
â–²(7.03% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is primarily held back by weak and consistently negative operating/free cash flow and elevated leverage despite improved profitability. Offsetting this, the earnings call indicated strong current momentum and supportive long-term targets, while technicals show an improving trend above major moving averages. Valuation is a notable positive, with an extremely low P/E and a solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improved profitability and ROE
Nomura’s recent quarter delivered materially higher profitability, with ROE at 15.4% and management raising multi-year ROE targets. Sustained higher ROE and improved margins indicate better capital allocation and operational leverage, supporting durable earnings capacity across market cycles.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Nomura’s multi-year negative operating and free cash flows materially reduce financial flexibility. Persistent cash deficits increase dependence on wholesale funding and balance-sheet capacity to support client activity, limiting capital deployment and raising refinancing and liquidity stress risk during market disruptions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved profitability and ROE
Nomura’s recent quarter delivered materially higher profitability, with ROE at 15.4% and management raising multi-year ROE targets. Sustained higher ROE and improved margins indicate better capital allocation and operational leverage, supporting durable earnings capacity across market cycles.
Read all positive factors
Nomura Holdings (NMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.94B
Dividend Yield3.35%
Average Volume (3M)1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)0.3
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue Growth2.94%
EPS Growth4.45%
CountryUS
Employees28,677
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)123.08
Shares Outstanding3,088,562,500
10 Day Avg. Volume926,810
30 Day Avg. Volume1,162,555
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.51
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio-3.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.20Price Target Upside3.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.18B
Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesa...
How the Company Makes Money
Nomura makes money by earning fees, commissions, and trading/investment income across its core segments. (1) Wealth Management: Generates revenue primarily from brokerage commissions and transaction-related fees on client trading, fees from distri...
Nomura Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed predominantly positive momentum: strong, record or multi‑quarter best performances across Wealth Management, Investment Management and Wholesale drove ROE to 15.4% and supported improvements in recurring revenue and capital metrics. Management flagged manageable headwinds — AUM net outflows (notably ETFs), one‑time compensation effects, regional (EMEA) losses, seasonal July softness and elevated market volatility heading into H2 — but emphasized structural reforms, self‑funding discipline, cost control and targets toward 2030. On balance, the highlights (record profitability, recurring revenue growth, AUM highs and improved CET1) outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Overall Profitability and ROE
ROE reached 15.4% in Q1 (highest since Apr–Jun 2020) with all divisions posting higher revenue and income before income taxes versus the prior quarter; management raised 2030 ROE target range to 10%–12%+ and income before income taxes target to at least JPY 750 billion by 2030.
Negative Updates
Net Outflows from AUM and ETF Redemptions
Total AUM experienced net outflows of JPY 1.33 trillion in the quarter; net outflows from ETFs were around JPY 940 billion, and there were notable net outflows overseas (mutual funds and U.S. high‑yield bonds) despite inflows into active strategies.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Overall Profitability and ROE
ROE reached 15.4% in Q1 (highest since Apr–Jun 2020) with all divisions posting higher revenue and income before income taxes versus the prior quarter; management raised 2030 ROE target range to 10%–12%+ and income before income taxes target to at least JPY 750 billion by 2030.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated longer‑term 2030 targets — ROE raised to a numerical range of 10–12% or more and income before income taxes of at least JPY 750 billion — while flagging near‑term plans to monetize opportunities amid expected higher H2 volatility (U.S. midterms, monetary policy) and to maintain strict cost discipline; key Q1 metrics underpinning guidance included ROE of 15.4% (highest since Apr–Jun 2020), recurring revenue at an all‑time high of JPY 59.2 billion with recurring revenue assets of JPY 31.7 trillion (net inflows JPY 539.6 billion, 17 consecutive quarters) and a recurring revenue cost‑coverage ratio of 76%, group CET1 of 12.9% (+0.1ppt), group expenses JPY 475.2 billion (+~1% QoQ), Wealth Management net revenue JPY 145.4 billion (+9% QoQ) and pretax income JPY 71.1 billion (pretax margin 49%), Investment Management net revenue JPY 98.3 billion (+14%) and pretax income JPY 45.0 billion (+148%), asset management AUM JPY 156.4 trillion (AUM net outflows JPY 1.33 trillion; excluding ETFs ≈ +JPY 500 billion), Wholesale net revenue JPY 369.1 billion (+20%) and pretax income JPY 93.3 billion (+116%) (Global Markets JPY 318.7 billion; FI JPY 139.2 billion; Equities JPY 179.4 billion; revenue/modified RWA 9.3%), Banking net revenue JPY 15.2 billion (+5%) and pretax JPY 3.6 billion (+19%), loans outstanding JPY 1,247 billion, and a continued emphasis on the wholesale self‑funding framework and balancing growth investment with shareholder returns (payout policy under review).Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.76T | 4.51T | 3.97T | 2.30T | 1.37T |
| Gross Profit | 2.17T | 1.66T | 1.38T | 1.14T | 1.14T |
| EBITDA | 608.09B | 533.62B | 335.19B | 210.90B | 286.15B |
| Net Income | 362.13B | 340.74B | 165.86B | 92.79B | 143.00B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 62.65T | 56.80T | 55.15T | 47.77T | 43.41T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.01T | 5.51T | 5.15T | 4.52T | 14.65T |
| Total Debt | 17.30T | 31.35T | 30.96T | 26.15T | 23.48T |
| Total Liabilities | 58.79T | 53.22T | 51.70T | 44.55T | 40.44T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.71T | 3.47T | 3.35T | 3.15T | 2.91T |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.20T | -868.58B | -13.14B | -865.99B | -974.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -842.96B | -678.61B | 132.64B | -694.82B | -862.83B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.50T | -848.65B | -887.94B | -233.22B | -593.18B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.10T | 1.68T | 1.01T | 1.28T | 1.11T |
Nomura Holdings Risk Analysis
Nomura Holdings disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nomura Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $183.03B | 19.07 | 20.40% | 1.16% | 11.20% | 48.07% | |
78 Outperform | $33.81B | 15.05 | 24.51% | 1.25% | 7.75% | 12.12% | |
76 Outperform | $331.89B | 16.92 | 18.22% | 1.86% | 17.82% | 40.08% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $27.94B | 0.31 | 395.36% | 3.30% | 2.94% | 4.45% | |
67 Neutral | $300.43B | 15.51 | 16.96% | 1.60% | 2.31% | 42.87% | |
66 Neutral | $28.29B | 28.09 | 18.45% | 0.37% | 38.82% | -14.48% |
* Financial Sector Average
NMR
Nomura Holdings
9.68
2.92
43.20%
LPLA
LPL Financial
353.70
-19.50
-5.23%
MS
Morgan Stanley
210.42
72.19
52.23%
RJF
Raymond James Financial
175.98
11.74
7.15%
SCHW
Charles Schwab
105.24
9.36
9.76%
GS
Goldman Sachs Group
1,018.38
306.68
43.09%
Nomura Holdings Corporate Events
Nomura Updates Governance Report, Beats Strategic Shareholding Reduction Target
Jul 22, 2026
Nomura Holdings, Inc., a major Japanese financial services group listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, offers global investment banking, securities and asset management services, serving shareholders, clients and broader stakeholders. The company...
Nomura Files 2026 Annual Securities Report and Updates U.S. Investors via Form 6-K
Jul 17, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Nomura Holdings filed its Annual Securities Report for the year ended March 31, 2026 with Japan’s Kanto Local Finance Bureau, and on July 17, 2026 it furnished a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The ...
Nomura Details June Status of 2026 Share Buyback and Treasury Stock
Jul 14, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 14, 2026 that it had conducted no share repurchases in June under its ongoing buyback program authorized by the board on January 30, 2026. As of June 30, the group had...
Nomura Adds $3.5 Billion in New Senior Note Forms to U.S. Shelf Registration
Jun 30, 2026
Nomura Holdings, Inc., the Japanese financial services and investment banking group, has updated its U.S. securities registration to include multiple new senior note instruments, spanning both floating and fixed-rate structures. The new forms cove...
Nomura Shareholders Approve 11-Director Slate at June 2026 AGM
Jun 24, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported that its 122nd Annual General Meeting of Shareholders was held on June 23, 2026, in Japan, where investors voted on the composition of the board. The meeting formed the basis for an extraordinary report filed with regulato...
Nomura Files FY2025 20-F and Confirms Top Management Line-up
Jun 23, 2026
Nomura Holdings, Inc., the Japanese financial services group, filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 22, 2026. The filing, available via the company&#...
Nomura Discloses March 2026 Capitalization and Debt Structure in Latest Form 6-K
Jun 22, 2026
Nomura Holdings, Inc., a leading Japanese financial services and investment banking group, reported its consolidated capitalization and indebtedness under U.S. GAAP as of March 31, 2026, in a Form 6-K filed on June 22, 2026. The disclosure highlig...
Nomura Details Progress of Share Buyback Program in May 2026 Filing
Jun 12, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 12, 2026 that it filed a share buyback report covering the period from May 1 to May 31, 2026. The company’s ongoing board-approved repurchase program, authorized...
Nomura Amends Audit Committee Report in 122nd AGM Convocation Notice
Jun 9, 2026
Nomura Holdings has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated June 9, 2026, to disclose a partial amendment to the Notice of Convocation for its 122nd Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. The company corrected an e...
Nomura Files May Form 6-K on 122nd Shareholder Meeting Materials
May 29, 2026
Nomura Holdings has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for May 2026, furnishing English translations related to its 122nd Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. The filing includes the official notice of convocation...
Nomura Posts Double-Digit Revenue and Profit Growth for Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2026
May 7, 2026
Nomura reported strong results for the year ended March 31, 2026, with net revenue rising 14.5% year-on-year to ¥2,167.7 billion and net income attributable to shareholders reaching ¥362.1 billion. The group’s return on equity came...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.