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Nomura Holdings
(NYSE:NMR)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
â–²(12.49% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and negative operating/free cash flow and elevated leverage risk, despite improved profitability. Valuation is a meaningful positive (low P/E and high dividend yield), and the latest earnings call supports a moderately constructive view on full-year momentum and capital returns, but technicals remain soft with the stock below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & Scale
Nomura’s material revenue scale-up over several years signals a structurally stronger business base and broader client reach across Wealth, Investment Management and Wholesale. A larger, diversified revenue base supports investment, absorbs shocks, and underpins sustainable fee generation and strategic reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Repeated, large negative operating and free cash flows materially constrain Nomura’s financial flexibility and increase dependence on external funding and balance-sheet capacity. Over the medium term this elevates refinancing and liquidity risk, limiting ability to absorb shocks or opportunistically invest without issuing debt or equity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth & Scale
Nomura’s material revenue scale-up over several years signals a structurally stronger business base and broader client reach across Wealth, Investment Management and Wholesale. A larger, diversified revenue base supports investment, absorbs shocks, and underpins sustainable fee generation and strategic reinvestment.
Read all positive factors
Nomura Holdings (NMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.16B
Dividend Yield4.76%
Average Volume (3M)772.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)0.3
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue Growth1.59%
EPS Growth8.15%
CountryUS
Employees27,301
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)123.08
Shares Outstanding3,088,562,500
10 Day Avg. Volume1,118,375
30 Day Avg. Volume772,060
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.51
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio-3.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21K
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda53.94
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.20Price Target Upside14.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.18B
Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesa...
How the Company Makes Money
Nomura makes money by earning fees, commissions, and trading/investment income across its core segments. (1) Wealth Management: Generates revenue primarily from brokerage commissions and transaction-related fees on client trading, fees from distri...
Nomura Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Positive but cautious. The company reported strong full-year results with record net income, ROE achievement, robust AUM growth and recurring revenue momentum (particularly in Wealth and Investment Management). However, Q4 showed meaningful sequential profit weakness driven by impairments, higher one-off expenses, geopolitical-related trading impacts and asset-flow/outflow pockets that require monitoring. Management emphasizes balanced capital use, cost control and selective risk-taking, suggesting confidence in medium-term growth but with near-term headwinds to watch.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Financials and ROE Target Achieved
Full-year group net revenue rose 15% YoY to JPY 2,167.7 billion; income before income taxes increased 14% YoY to JPY 539.8 billion; net income grew 6% YoY to JPY 362.1 billion (record high for 2nd consecutive year). Full-year ROE reached 10.1%, meeting the group's 8%–10%+ target two years early. Four-segment income before income taxes hit an all-time high of JPY 506.9 billion.
Negative Updates
Q4 Earnings Decline
Quarter-on-quarter, group income before income taxes fell 20% to JPY 107.7 billion and net income declined 19% to JPY 73.9 billion. Q4 ROE was 8% and EPS was JPY 24.34, indicating a notable sequential slowdown in profitability versus the full-year strength.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Financials and ROE Target Achieved
Full-year group net revenue rose 15% YoY to JPY 2,167.7 billion; income before income taxes increased 14% YoY to JPY 539.8 billion; net income grew 6% YoY to JPY 362.1 billion (record high for 2nd consecutive year). Full-year ROE reached 10.1%, meeting the group's 8%–10%+ target two years early. Four-segment income before income taxes hit an all-time high of JPY 506.9 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nomura reiterated its 2030 targets and near‑term capital/operational guidance: it will pay an ordinary dividend of JPY 24 per share (bringing the full‑year dividend to JPY 51 and a 41% payout ratio), aims to sustain an ROE of 8–10%+ (already achieved 10.1% for FY‑2026) and income‑before‑taxes > JPY 500 billion (FY‑2026: JPY 539.8bn), while managing capital so CET1 should remain stable (12.9% at end‑Mar, −0.1pt q‑q) as growth is largely self‑funded; management said Wealth Management revenue is largely steady (Q4 net revenue JPY133.1bn, Q4 income before taxes JPY61.2bn, recurring revenue JPY56.8bn, net inflows JPY422.8bn, 1.74m flow clients), Investment Management AUM hit ~JPY137tn (>50% y/y, alternative AUM JPY3.6tn), and Wholesale showed April momentum above Q4 (Q4 wholesale net revenue JPY308.1bn, income before taxes JPY43.2bn) even as Q4 group net revenue rose to JPY2,167.7bn (+15% y/y) with Q4 revenues of JPY577.2bn (+5% q‑q) and group expenses including one‑offs at JPY469.5bn (+13% q‑q); private‑credit exposure remains diversified at roughly $800m lender financing, $1.2bn direct lending and $400m IM holdings (~$2.4bn total), and management expects one‑off expense items to abate as it balances revenue growth, cost control and targeted investments.Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.76T | 4.51T | 3.97T | 2.30T | 1.37T |
| Gross Profit | 2.17T | 1.66T | 1.38T | 1.14T | 1.14T |
| EBITDA | 608.09B | 533.62B | 335.19B | 210.90B | 286.15B |
| Net Income | 362.13B | 340.74B | 165.86B | 92.79B | 143.00B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 62.65T | 56.80T | 55.15T | 47.77T | 43.41T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.01T | 5.51T | 5.15T | 4.52T | 14.65T |
| Total Debt | 17.30T | 31.35T | 30.96T | 26.15T | 23.48T |
| Total Liabilities | 58.79T | 53.22T | 51.70T | 44.55T | 40.44T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.71T | 3.47T | 3.35T | 3.15T | 2.91T |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.20T | -868.58B | -13.14B | -865.99B | -974.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -842.96B | -678.61B | 132.64B | -694.82B | -862.83B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.50T | -848.65B | -887.94B | -233.22B | -593.18B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.10T | 1.68T | 1.01T | 1.28T | 1.11T |
Nomura Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
8.89
Price Trends
8.47
Positive
8.35
Positive
8.14
Positive
Market Momentum
0.28
Negative
75.29
Negative
92.50
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.00, above the 50-day MA of 8.47, and above the 200-day MA of 8.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.29 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.50 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NMR.
Nomura Holdings Risk Analysis
Nomura Holdings disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nomura Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $32.88B | 15.60 | 17.21% | 1.26% | 5.83% | 1.44% | |
73 Outperform | $350.36B | 19.99 | 16.38% | 2.14% | 16.32% | 29.43% | |
72 Outperform | $177.24B | 20.30 | 19.08% | 1.07% | 8.11% | 53.31% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $311.52B | 19.06 | 14.58% | 1.55% | 2.63% | 26.98% | |
62 Neutral | $24.91B | 27.96 | 17.04% | 0.32% | 38.08% | -22.75% | |
59 Neutral | $27.16B | 0.31 | 404.11% | 4.76% | 1.59% | 8.15% |
* Financial Sector Average
NMR
Nomura Holdings
9.66
3.22
50.00%
LPLA
LPL Financial
317.03
-52.10
-14.11%
MS
Morgan Stanley
222.28
81.70
58.12%
RJF
Raymond James Financial
168.12
10.96
6.97%
SCHW
Charles Schwab
103.12
11.58
12.65%
GS
Goldman Sachs Group
1,055.18
355.96
50.91%
Nomura Holdings Corporate Events
Nomura Adds $3.5 Billion in New Senior Note Forms to U.S. Shelf Registration
Jun 30, 2026
Nomura Holdings, Inc., the Japanese financial services and investment banking group, has updated its U.S. securities registration to include multiple new senior note instruments, spanning both floating and fixed-rate structures. The new forms cove...
Nomura Shareholders Approve 11-Director Slate at June 2026 AGM
Jun 24, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported that its 122nd Annual General Meeting of Shareholders was held on June 23, 2026, in Japan, where investors voted on the composition of the board. The meeting formed the basis for an extraordinary report filed with regulato...
Nomura Files FY2025 20-F and Confirms Top Management Line-up
Jun 23, 2026
Nomura Holdings, Inc., the Japanese financial services group, filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 22, 2026. The filing, available via the company&#...
Nomura Discloses March 2026 Capitalization and Debt Structure in Latest Form 6-K
Jun 22, 2026
Nomura Holdings, Inc., a leading Japanese financial services and investment banking group, reported its consolidated capitalization and indebtedness under U.S. GAAP as of March 31, 2026, in a Form 6-K filed on June 22, 2026. The disclosure highlig...
Nomura Details Progress of Share Buyback Program in May 2026 Filing
Jun 12, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 12, 2026 that it filed a share buyback report covering the period from May 1 to May 31, 2026. The company’s ongoing board-approved repurchase program, authorized...
Nomura Amends Audit Committee Report in 122nd AGM Convocation Notice
Jun 9, 2026
Nomura Holdings has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated June 9, 2026, to disclose a partial amendment to the Notice of Convocation for its 122nd Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. The company corrected an e...
Nomura Files May Form 6-K on 122nd Shareholder Meeting Materials
May 29, 2026
Nomura Holdings has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for May 2026, furnishing English translations related to its 122nd Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. The filing includes the official notice of convocation...
Nomura Posts Double-Digit Revenue and Profit Growth for Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2026
May 7, 2026
Nomura reported strong results for the year ended March 31, 2026, with net revenue rising 14.5% year-on-year to ¥2,167.7 billion and net income attributable to shareholders reaching ¥362.1 billion. The group’s return on equity came...
Nomura Files April 2026 Corporate Governance Report Detailing Strategic Shareholding Cuts and Diversity Focus
Apr 28, 2026
Nomura Holdings filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for April 2026, furnishing an English translation of its Corporate Governance Report that was filed with the Tokyo Stock Exchange on April 28, 2026. The report reaff...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.