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Goldman Sachs Group (GS)
NYSE:GS

Goldman Sachs Group (GS) AI Stock Analysis

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GS

Goldman Sachs Group

(NYSE:GS)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$1,088.00
â–²(15.73% Upside)
The score is driven by strong operating momentum and a positive earnings-call outlook with significant capital return capacity, reinforced by a bullish technical trend. Offsetting factors are elevated leverage and weak recent cash-flow conversion, while valuation and dividend support are moderate.
Positive Factors
GBM market leadership
Goldman’s Global Banking & Markets scale and sustained advisory leadership create durable fee engines. A multi-year wallet-share gain and the largest IB backlog in four years support recurring advisory and underwriting fees, reinforcing competitive positioning through market cycles.
AWM scale & fee base
Large Asset & Wealth Management scale and growing alternatives fundraising provide a structural shift to fee-based, lower-capital businesses. Targets to raise pretax margins and steady fee inflows (5% long-term) imply more stable, high‑margin recurring revenue and lower balance-sheet intensity.
Capital & funding strength
A healthy CET1 buffer, diverse deposit funding (~$501B) and material buyback capacity afford strategic flexibility. Strong capital generation lets Goldman return capital while supporting lending and market-making, enhancing resilience to stress and enabling opportunistic deployment over time.
Negative Factors
High balance-sheet leverage
A very high leverage profile and low equity base increase sensitivity to asset shocks and raise funding and regulatory risks. While ROE is strong, limited equity buffers can amplify losses in downturns and constrain capital flexibility for investments or larger buybacks over multiple cycles.
Weak cash-flow conversion
Significant deterioration in free cash flow and negative operating cash flow conversion indicate earnings are not fully translating to sustainable cash. This undermines the durability of shareholder distributions and internal reinvestment unless cash conversion improves or non‑recurring items normalize.
Apple Card transition reduces platform revenue
Exiting or modifying the Apple Card platform is a structural revenue reduction for platform solutions. Even with one‑time reserve benefits, the lower recurring loan and servicing revenue base raises efficiency ratio volatility and forces redeployment of capital to replace lost, higher-margin platform income.

Goldman Sachs Group (GS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Goldman Sachs Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a financial institution, provides a range of financial services for corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals worldwide. It operates through four segments: Investment Banking, Global Markets, Asset Management, and Consumer & Wealth Management. The company's Investment Banking segment provides financial advisory services, including strategic advisory assignments related to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense activities, restructurings, and spin-offs; and middle-market lending, relationship lending, and acquisition financing, as well as transaction banking services. This segment also offers underwriting services, such as equity underwriting for common and preferred stock and convertible and exchangeable securities; and debt underwriting for various types of debt instruments, including investment-grade and high-yield debt, bank and bridge loans, and emerging-and growth-market debt, as well as originates structured securities. Its Global Markets segment is involved in client execution activities for cash and derivative instruments; credit and interest rate products; and provision of equity intermediation and equity financing, clearing, settlement, and custody services, as well as mortgages, currencies, commodities, and equities related products. The company's Asset Management segment manages assets across various classes, including equity, fixed income, hedge funds, credit funds, private equity, real estate, currencies, and commodities; and provides customized investment advisory solutions, as well as invests in corporate, real estate, and infrastructure entities. Its Consumer & Wealth Management segment offers wealth advisory and banking services, including financial planning, investment management, deposit taking, and lending; private banking; and unsecured loans, as well as accepts saving and time deposits. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyGoldman Sachs generates revenue through several key streams. The Investment Banking segment contributes significantly by advising clients on mergers and acquisitions, underwriting public offerings, and facilitating capital raising efforts. The Global Markets segment earns revenue through trading and market-making activities in equities, fixed income, and commodities, capitalizing on price fluctuations and liquidity needs. Asset Management services generate fees from managing investments on behalf of institutional and individual clients, while Consumer & Wealth Management offers financial planning and investment services that also produce advisory and management fees. Additionally, Goldman Sachs has formed strategic partnerships and alliances that enhance its service offerings and broaden its client base, contributing to its overall earnings. The firm's diversified approach across different sectors helps mitigate risks and stabilize revenue streams.

Goldman Sachs Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Goldman Sachs is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsGoldman Sachs' revenue growth in the Americas has been robust, driven by strong M&A advisory and strategic initiatives like 'One Goldman Sachs 3.0.' Asia is showing a recovery, likely benefiting from strategic acquisitions and partnerships. EMEA's revenue is stabilizing, with potential upside from asset and wealth management growth. Despite challenges in equities intermediation and higher expenses, the firm's strategic focus on technology and partnerships positions it well for future growth, as evidenced by record revenues and a strong market position.
Data provided by:The Fly

Goldman Sachs Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 15, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong full‑year results, record franchise metrics, meaningful progress de‑risking the balance sheet, clear growth targets (notably in AWM and alternatives), robust capital returns, and a healthy investment banking backlog—supporting optimism for 2026. Near‑term challenges include the accounting and revenue impact of the Apple Card transition, NIM compression in deposit businesses, elevated non‑compensation costs tied to transactional activity, and an IPO market still below 2021 peaks. Management emphasized ongoing efficiency work (One Goldman Sachs 3.0) and prudent capital deployment. Taken together, the positives from operating performance, capital strength, leadership positions, and stated targets materially outweigh the identified headwinds, though outcomes remain sensitive to macro and market conditions.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong earnings and return metrics
Q4 EPS ~$14.01, Q4 ROE 16% and RoTE 17.1%; full-year EPS $51.32, up 27% year-over-year; full-year ROE 15% and RoTE 16%, improving ~230–250 basis points versus 2024.
Sustained long-term performance gains since 2020
Since 2020 firm-wide revenues up ~60%, EPS up 144%, returns up ~500 basis points, and total shareholder return >340% versus peers over the same period.
Global Banking & Markets leadership and growth
GBM produced record revenues of $41.5 billion for 2025 (up 18% YoY). Investment banking fees in Q4 were $2.6 billion, up 25% YoY; Goldman was #1 M&A adviser for 23 consecutive years and advised on >$1.6 trillion of announced M&A in 2025 (~$250 billion ahead of next peer).
Equities and FICC strength with durable financing growth
Full-year equities net revenues were a record $16.5 billion (>$3 billion above prior year). Q4 equities net revenues $4.3 billion; equities financing Q4 hit a quarterly record $2.1 billion, up 42% YoY. More durable FICC and equity financing revenues reached a new record of $11.4 billion for the year and generated returns >16% in the segment.
Asset & Wealth Management scale and targets
AUS reached a record $3.6 trillion. AWM revenues for 2025 were $16.7 billion with a 25% pretax margin and segment ROE ~12.5% (mid‑teens adjusted). Management & other fees in Q4 were a record $3.1 billion (up 5% sequentially, 10% YoY). Firm raised a record $115 billion in alternatives in 2025.
Ambitious AWM medium‑term targets
AWM pretax margin target increased to 30% (driving high‑teen returns medium term); new long‑term wealth target of 5% fee‑based net inflows annually; alternatives fundraising sustainable target of $75–$100 billion per year and fee‑paying alternative AUS target of $750 billion by 2030 with a $1 billion annual incentive‑fee target.
Capital, funding, and shareholder returns
Common equity Tier 1 ratio 14.4% (standardized). Deposits grew to $501 billion (~40% of funding); bank assets represent 35% of firm assets. Announced dividend increase of $0.50 to $4.50 per quarter (50% YoY) and $32 billion remaining buyback capacity; Q4 returns to shareholders ~ $4.2 billion (repurchases $3.0 billion, dividends $1.2 billion).
Improved risk profile and resilience
Reduced historical principal investments from ~$64 billion to ~$6 billion (>90% reduction). Durable revenues doubled and CCAR stress capital buffer improved by ~320 basis points, reflecting lower capital intensity and improved resilience.
Backlog and client engagement suggest upside
Investment banking backlog rose for a seventh consecutive quarter to its highest level in four years (driven primarily by advisory), and Goldman reported 350 basis points of wallet share gain in GBM since 2019—supporting expectations of accelerating activity in 2026.
Negative Updates
Apple Card transition reduces reported revenues (one‑time effects)
Transition of Apple Card portfolio produced a $2.3 billion revenue reduction in the quarter (offset by a $2.5 billion reserve release producing a net positive $0.46 to EPS and +50 bps to ROE in Q4). The move reduces future platform revenue and complicates efficiency metrics (lower revenue base increases reported efficiency ratio).
Net interest margin (NIM) compression and deposit dynamics
Marcus deposit portfolio experienced NIM compression that partially offset private banking and lending revenue gains; management expects potential further NIM compression in 2026 as the rate cycle evolves.
Costs and near‑term operating‑leverage noise
Total operating expenses for 2025 were $37.5 billion (compensation $18.9 billion including $250 million severance; non‑compensation $18.6 billion, up 9% YoY due to higher transaction activity). Q4 year‑over‑year efficiency comparisons were distorted by Apple Card accounting and comp accrual timing, causing investor concern about quarter‑level operating leverage despite clear full‑year improvement.
Equity capital markets (IPOs) still below peak
Equity capital markets activity remains meaningfully below 2021 peak levels (IPO business still below long‑term averages), limiting some upside potential in fee pools tied to ECM vs. the 2021 environment.
Alternatives and incentive fees still below long‑term targets
Full‑year incentive fees were $489 million (up 24% YoY) but remain below the $1 billion annual target; alternative AUS at $420 billion vs. the $750 billion fee‑paying target by 2030—significant growth required to meet those long‑term objectives.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remain key downside catalysts
Management repeatedly flagged risks from economic growth shifts, policy uncertainty, geopolitical developments, and market volatility that could quickly slow deal activity and margin expansion—making forward performance contingent on external conditions.
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized strong near-term momentum and specific medium‑/long‑term targets: Q4 revenue $13.5B, EPS $14.01, ROE 16% and RoTE 17.1%; FY EPS $51.32 (up 27% YoY), FY ROE 15% and RoTE 16% (up 230–250 bps vs. 2024); GBM revenues $41.5B (up 18%); investment banking fees Q4 $2.6B and >$1.6T of announced M&A in 2025 with backlog at a four‑year high; FICC Q4 $3.1B (up 12%), equities Q4 $4.3B (intermediation $2.2B, financing $2.1B); more durable FICC/equity financing $11.4B for the year (37% of FICC+equity revenues, 17% CAGR since 2021); AWM $3.6T AUS, FY revenues $16.7B with pretax margin 25% (new target 30% to drive high‑teen returns) and segment ROE ~12.5% (mid‑teens adj), Q4 management & other fees $3.1B, private banking & lending $776M, incentive fees FY $489M aiming for $1B; alternatives AUS $420B with $645M fees, $45B Q4 / $115B FY fundraising and a $75–100B p.a. raise target (fee‑paying alt AUS $750B by 2030); total loans $238B; provision benefit $2.1B (incl. $2.5B Apple Card reserve release; Apple Card transition added $0.46 to EPS and +50bps ROE in Q4); operating expenses $37.5B (comp $18.9B incl. $250M severance, non‑comp $18.6B), comp ratio net of provisions 31.8%; CET1 14.4% (standardized); returned ~$4.2B to shareholders in Q4 ($3B buybacks, $1.2B dividends) with $32B buyback capacity remaining; announced $0.50 quarterly dividend increase to $4.50; effective tax rate 21.4% in 2025, targeting ~20% in 2026; and a new wealth long‑term fee‑based net inflow target of 5% annually, plus One Goldman Sachs 3.0 productivity metrics to be disclosed over the year.

Goldman Sachs Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong income-statement momentum (TTM revenue up 49.8%, healthy profitability with ~12.6% net margin and solid EBIT/EBITDA margins) is partly offset by balance-sheet leverage risk (debt-to-equity 5.36, low equity ratio 6.86%) and weaker cash conversion (TTM free cash flow down 163.38% and negative operating cash flow to net income).
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Goldman Sachs has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 49.8%, indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin is healthy at 43.32%, and the net profit margin has improved to 12.60%, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 16.06% and 17.69%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.36, which suggests significant leverage. However, the return on equity is solid at 13.49%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 6.86%, highlighting a relatively low equity base compared to total assets, which could pose a risk in volatile markets.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Goldman Sachs has shown a decline in free cash flow growth, with a significant drop of 163.38% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating challenges in converting income to cash flow. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.09, suggesting some ability to generate cash relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue127.21B126.85B108.42B68.71B64.99B53.50B
Gross Profit57.34B52.16B45.23B44.65B58.98B41.46B
EBITDA23.41B20.79B15.60B15.94B29.06B14.38B
Net Income16.67B14.28B8.52B11.26B21.64B9.46B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.81T1.68T1.64T1.44T1.46T1.16T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments516.00B921.83B924.95B721.95B778.72B588.48B
Total Debt665.00B616.93B583.13B434.55B487.76B420.96B
Total Liabilities1.68T1.55T1.52T1.32T1.35T1.07T
Stockholders Equity124.00B122.00B116.91B117.19B109.93B95.93B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow15.77B-15.30B-14.90B4.96B1.63B-24.84B
Operating Cash Flow17.89B-13.21B-12.59B8.71B6.30B-18.54B
Investing Cash Flow-46.31B-49.62B-17.31B-75.96B-30.46B-34.36B
Financing Cash Flow41.53B7.32B27.80B59.60B134.74B70.38B

Goldman Sachs Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price940.12
Price Trends
50DMA
885.06
Positive
100DMA
833.06
Positive
200DMA
739.89
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
13.66
Positive
RSI
55.43
Neutral
STOCH
27.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 940.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 938.94, above the 50-day MA of 885.06, and above the 200-day MA of 739.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 13.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GS.

Goldman Sachs Group Risk Analysis

Goldman Sachs Group disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Goldman Sachs Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Goldman Sachs Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$280.98B18.2513.91%1.55%2.31%44.49%
78
Outperform
$33.24B16.3817.16%1.26%6.45%5.85%
77
Outperform
$183.86B22.2518.11%1.07%5.90%66.60%
76
Outperform
$289.79B17.8616.34%2.14%7.22%48.18%
69
Neutral
$818.77B15.0216.06%1.79%1.89%12.32%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
65
Neutral
$378.34B13.6010.23%1.93%0.15%33.84%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GS
Goldman Sachs Group
940.12
312.53
49.80%
BAC
Bank of America
53.08
7.83
17.30%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
306.42
44.49
16.99%
MS
Morgan Stanley
182.40
46.85
34.56%
RJF
Raymond James Financial
167.61
1.33
0.80%
SCHW
Charles Schwab
103.47
21.75
26.62%

Goldman Sachs Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Goldman Sachs boosts CEO pay after strong 2025 performance
Positive
Jan 23, 2026

For the year ended December 31, 2025, Goldman Sachs Group’s board set Chairman and CEO David Solomon’s total 2025 compensation at $47 million, up from $39 million in 2024, with an unchanged $2 million base salary and the majority of pay delivered via performance stock units and carry tied to long-term firmwide and strategic growth performance. The Compensation Committee cited strong 2025 results – including $58.28 billion in net revenues, $17.18 billion in net earnings, a 27% rise in diluted EPS to $51.32, a 15.0% ROE, a 57% total shareholder return, higher dividends, and nearly $17 billion returned to shareholders – as well as progress on strategic priorities, risk management, culture, and talent retention, reinforcing the firm’s pay-for-performance model and its competitive positioning against both traditional banks and alternative asset managers.

The most recent analyst rating on (GS) stock is a Hold with a $1030.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs Group stock, see the GS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Goldman Sachs Posts Strong 2025 Results, Raises Dividend
Positive
Jan 15, 2026

On January 15, 2026, Goldman Sachs reported strong results for the year ended December 31, 2025, with net revenues rising 9% year-on-year to $58.28 billion and net earnings reaching $17.18 billion, translating into diluted EPS of $51.32 versus $40.54 in 2024. Fourth-quarter 2025 net revenues were $13.45 billion and net earnings $4.62 billion, with quarterly EPS of $14.01, reflecting continued momentum in core operations despite a drag from its Platform Solutions business tied to markdowns on the Apple Card loan portfolio and related contract termination obligations; the firm also announced an increase in its quarterly dividend to $4.50 per share starting in the first quarter of 2026. Return on average common shareholders’ equity improved to 15.0% for 2025, with an annualized 16.0% ROE in the fourth quarter, and book value per share grew 6.2% over the year to $357.60, underscoring stronger profitability and capital accretion, driven largely by a robust performance in Global Banking & Markets, where full-year net revenues rose 18% to $41.45 billion on significantly higher advisory, underwriting, FICC, and equities revenues, and a notably larger investment banking fee backlog that signals sustained deal-making activity ahead.

The most recent analyst rating on (GS) stock is a Buy with a $1048.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs Group stock, see the GS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Goldman Sachs Unveils Reorganized Segment Reporting Structure
Positive
Jan 8, 2026

Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025, Goldman Sachs reorganized its reporting structure across three existing business segments—Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management and Platform Solutions—without changing its historical consolidated financial results. The firm shifted its transaction banking business into Global Banking & Markets, reclassified certain institutional loan facilitation and structured letters of credit into FICC financing, and began allocating Urban Investment Group results across all three segments to reflect the shared nature of Community Reinvestment Act obligations. Within Asset & Wealth Management, equity and debt investments are now reported together as Goldman continues to pivot from balance-sheet investing toward a scaled, third-party funds-driven model, while Platform Solutions is refocused chiefly on Apple Card and exited businesses. The recast segment data from 2021 through 2025 provide investors with a clearer view of profitability and capital deployment by line of business, underscoring a strategic shift away from broad consumer ambitions toward core institutional, wealth and fee-based asset management franchises.

The most recent analyst rating on (GS) stock is a Hold with a $604.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs Group stock, see the GS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 24, 2026