Morgan Stanley (MS)
NYSE:MS
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Morgan Stanley
(NYSE:MS)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$215.00
▲(17.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong technical uptrend signals and a constructive earnings call featuring record results and solid capital/buybacks. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and a moderate dividend yield. Offsetting these positives, financial performance is capped by elevated leverage and especially volatile/negative TTM cash flow, which reduces confidence in cash conversion durability.
Positive Factors
Record diversified revenue and strong profitability
Record Q1 revenue and very strong ROTCE reflect durable, diversified franchise strength across markets, investment banking and wealth. High operating leverage indicates the firm can translate client flows and underwriting wins into sustained profits across cycles, bolstering long-term earnings resilience.
Negative Factors
Volatile and recently negative cash flow
Swingy earnings-to-cash conversion undermines confidence in self-funding capacity: negative TTM OCF/FCF after a big 2025 rebound implies reliance on volatile items and capital markets to fund distributions, buybacks or growth, increasing execution risk if markets tighten.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record diversified revenue and strong profitability
Record Q1 revenue and very strong ROTCE reflect durable, diversified franchise strength across markets, investment banking and wealth. High operating leverage indicates the firm can translate client flows and underwriting wins into sustained profits across cycles, bolstering long-term earnings resilience.
Read all positive factors
Morgan Stanley Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Income Breakdown
Provides a detailed view of profit sources, illustrating how different operations contribute to the bottom line and financial health.
Provides a detailed view of profit sources, illustrating how different operations contribute to the bottom line and financial health.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMorgan Stanley (MS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$311.94B
Dividend Yield2.14%
Average Volume (3M)5.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)1.51
Revenue Growth16.32%
EPS Growth29.43%
CountryUS
Employees81,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.13
Shares Outstanding1,577,284,800
10 Day Avg. Volume5,387,497
30 Day Avg. Volume5,577,545
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.58
Price to Book (P/B)2.50
Price to Sales (P/S)2.43
P/FCF Ratio6.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$201.42Price Target Upside9.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)11.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$77.87B
Morgan Stanley Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It operates through Ins...
How the Company Makes Money
Morgan Stanley makes money primarily by earning fees and commissions for advice and execution services, and by generating interest and trading-related revenue from its financing and markets activities. Key revenue streams include: (1) Wealth Manag...
Morgan Stanley Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 15, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized broad-based, record-setting revenue and profitability across Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Markets, backed by strong capital metrics (CET1 15.1%, $15B capital accreted over nine quarters) and aggressive asset-gathering (NNA $118B, fee-based flows $54B). Management also highlighted strategic investments (EquityZen, digital asset pilot), strong Asia momentum and durable markets-led financing businesses. Offsetting items included an informational "learning moment" in private credit with some fund redemptions and declines in accrued carried interest, one-time severance charges of $178 million, rising RWAs and regulatory (Basel) and macro/geopolitical uncertainties. Overall, positives around top-line records, margins, capital strength and client engagement materially outweigh the manageable and mostly non-structural challenges discussed.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and EPS
Firm reported record quarterly revenues of $20.6 billion and EPS (ex DVA) of $3.43. Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was very strong at ~27.1% and the efficiency ratio improved to 65%, demonstrating operating leverage and disciplined execution.
Negative Updates
Private Credit 'Adolescent' Moment and Redemptions
Management described private credit as in an "adolescent" learning moment with some redemptions in a fund during the quarter. Investment Management saw declines in accrued carried interest in private funds. Firm emphasized exposures are modest (private credit under 1% of AUM and ~1% of wealth alternatives exposure) but flagged increased scrutiny and manager selection risks.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and EPS
Firm reported record quarterly revenues of $20.6 billion and EPS (ex DVA) of $3.43. Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was very strong at ~27.1% and the efficiency ratio improved to 65%, demonstrating operating leverage and disciplined execution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The firm gave measured, constructive near‑term guidance anchored by several specific metrics: record Q1 revenues of $20.6B and EPS of $3.43, ROTCE 27.1%, an efficiency ratio of 65% (including $178M of severance), and a standardized CET1 ratio of 15.1% vs an 11.8% requirement (>300 bps buffer) after accreting $15B of capital over the last 9 quarters and opportunistically buying back $1.75B of common stock; Q1 tax rate was 19.6% with an expected 2026 tax rate of 22–23%; management expects net interest income to “build over the course of the year” with a modest uptick in Q2 (Q1 NII $2.2B). Business‑level guidance/benchmarks included Institutional Securities revenues $10.7B (investment banking $2.1B, advisory $978M, +74% YoY; equity revenues $5.1B; fixed income $3.4B), Wealth Management records (revenues $8.5B, PBT margin 30.4%, net new assets $118B, fee‑based flows $54B, bank lending balances $186B up $5B q/q, household lending penetration 18%, period‑end deposits $419B, adviser‑led assets ~$5.8T with >$1.2T sourced from Workplace/E*TRADE and >$400B of adviser‑led inflows since 2020), and Investment/Asset Management (Investment Management revenues $1.5B, long‑term net flows $3.3B, AUM $1.9T; asset management revenues noted at $5.1B); the firm closed the EquityZen acquisition, launched a digital‑asset pilot, and expects the proposed Basel changes to be capital‑neutral to modestly positive overall (G‑SIB bucket shown moving from ~3.5% to ~2.2% in the proposal).Morgan Stanley Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 120.22B | 114.98B | 103.14B | 88.29B | 62.48B | 57.78B |
| Gross Profit | 69.72B | 65.62B | 57.36B | 50.13B | 49.93B | 56.41B |
| EBITDA | 27.21B | 26.61B | 22.76B | 16.07B | 18.09B | 23.88B |
| Net Income | 18.18B | 16.86B | 13.39B | 9.09B | 11.03B | 15.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.58T | 1.42T | 1.22T | 1.19T | 1.18T | 1.19T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 659.74B | 539.97B | 401.59B | 461.89B | 467.86B | 500.35B |
| Total Debt | 394.23B | 475.56B | 360.49B | 339.04B | 308.75B | 305.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.47T | 1.31T | 1.11T | 1.09T | 1.08T | 1.08T |
| Stockholders Equity | 114.29B | 111.63B | 104.51B | 99.04B | 100.14B | 105.44B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.05B | 46.10B | -2.10B | -36.95B | -9.47B | 31.66B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.01B | 49.00B | 1.36B | -33.54B | -6.40B | 33.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -48.34B | -144.22B | -29.46B | -3.08B | -11.63B | -49.90B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 91.17B | 98.31B | 46.76B | -2.73B | 22.71B | 41.55B |
Morgan Stanley Technical Analysis
Positive
183.34
Price Trends
178.72
Positive
177.22
Positive
167.66
Positive
Market Momentum
4.23
Positive
67.33
Neutral
74.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 183.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 191.53, above the 50-day MA of 178.72, and above the 200-day MA of 167.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MS.
Morgan Stanley Risk Analysis
Morgan Stanley disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Morgan Stanley reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Morgan Stanley Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $311.94B | 11.46 | 16.38% | 2.14% | 16.32% | 29.43% | |
72 Outperform | $363.56B | 10.30 | 10.50% | 1.93% | -1.69% | 20.90% | |
70 Outperform | $809.16B | 12.43 | 16.32% | 1.79% | 1.33% | 2.47% | |
70 Outperform | $156.71B | 16.55 | 19.08% | 1.07% | 8.11% | 53.31% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $214.05B | 8.51 | 7.53% | 1.94% | 3.02% | 27.74% | |
64 Neutral | $289.73B | 11.41 | 14.58% | 1.55% | 2.63% | 26.98% |
* Financial Sector Average
MS
Morgan Stanley
200.51
77.41
62.89%
BAC
Bank of America
51.49
9.24
21.87%
C
Citigroup
125.22
53.75
75.21%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
303.00
47.26
18.48%
SCHW
Charles Schwab
90.41
4.10
4.76%
GS
Goldman Sachs Group
988.17
401.78
68.52%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.