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Morgan Stanley (MS)
NYSE:MS

Morgan Stanley (MS) AI Stock Analysis

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MS

Morgan Stanley

(NYSE:MS)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$153.00
â–²(8.62%Upside)
Morgan Stanley's strong financial performance, led by robust revenue growth and technical momentum, drives a high overall score. While the valuation is fair, ongoing market uncertainties and cash flow volatility present challenges that slightly reduce the score.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Revenue rose 26% y/y to USD16.2bn, while diluted EPS more than doubled to USD2.22, beating expectations by 8%/32% respectively.
Trading Performance
Morgan Stanley reported strong trading results, with equities trading up 45% year-over-year and total capital markets revenue up 22%.
Wealth Management
Morgan Stanley has capitalized on the boom of global wealth during the last decade and doubled the profit contribution from wealth and investment management from 26% of total profit in 2010 to 62% in 2023.
Negative Factors
Asset Values
Client assets fell 3% likely due to lower asset values, indicating potential challenges in wealth management.
Investment Banking
Investment banking activity is expected to stay tempered, with recent uncertainty posing a challenge to seeing pipelines come to fruition.
Market Conditions
Global economic slowdown, prolonged high market interest rates, noticeable contraction in market liquidity, and a substantial correction in global asset valuation.

Morgan Stanley (MS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Morgan Stanley Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMorgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. The Institutional Securities segment offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity, and other securities, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, real estate, and project finance. This segment also provides sales and trading services, such as sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services in equity and fixed income products consisting of foreign exchange and commodities; corporate and commercial real estate loans, which provides secured lending facilities and financing for sales and trading customers, and asset-backed and mortgage lending; and wealth management services, investment, and research services. The Wealth Management segment offers financial advisor-led brokerage and investment advisory services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; workplace services, including stock plan administration; annuity and insurance products; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services to individual investors and small to medium-sized businesses and institutions. The Investment Management segment provides equity, fixed income, liquidity, and alternative/other products to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and third-party fund sponsors and corporations through institutional and intermediary channels. Morgan Stanley was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyMorgan Stanley makes money through its three primary business segments. The Institutional Securities segment generates revenue by providing financial advisory services, underwriting, and trading in equities and fixed income securities. This segment serves corporate clients, governments, and institutions. The Wealth Management segment earns income through fees and commissions from managing wealth and providing financial advisory services to individual investors and small- to medium-sized businesses. Lastly, the Investment Management segment generates revenue by managing assets on behalf of institutional and retail clients, earning management and performance fees. Key revenue streams for Morgan Stanley include advisory and underwriting fees, trading commissions, asset management fees, and net interest income. Partnerships with other financial institutions and strategic acquisitions also contribute to its earnings, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its market reach.

Morgan Stanley Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Client Assets
Total Client Assets
Indicates the total value of assets held by clients, reflecting the firm's ability to attract and retain wealth.
Chart InsightsMorgan Stanley's Total Client Assets have shown a consistent upward trajectory, reaching $6.015 trillion by Q1 2025. This growth aligns with the firm's successful addition of $94 billion in net new assets, as highlighted in their earnings call. Despite market volatility, Morgan Stanley's robust performance in wealth management and institutional securities, particularly in equities, has driven asset growth. However, potential challenges such as geopolitical risks and a slowdown in IPO and M&A activities could impact future asset accumulation.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Morgan Stanley Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 11, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 33.23%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Morgan Stanley's strong financial performance, with record revenues, EPS, and significant growth in wealth management and institutional securities. However, ongoing market uncertainties and geopolitical risks present challenges, particularly affecting strategic client activities and the potential slowdown in IPO and M&A activities.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenues and Strong EPS
Morgan Stanley reported record revenues of $17.7 billion and an EPS of $2.60, demonstrating the firm's strong performance despite market uncertainties.
Wealth Management Success
Wealth management added $94 billion of net new assets, with consistently strong fee-based flows of $30 billion, reflecting client engagement and demand for advice.
Robust Institutional Securities Performance
Institutional securities delivered a record quarter with revenues of $9 billion, up 28% from the prior year, driven by strong performance in equities and geographic reach, particularly in Asia.
Equities Trading Record
Equity revenues increased 45% from the prior year to a record $4.1 billion, with strong client activity and engagement across regions.
Fixed Income Success
Fixed income underwriting delivered strong revenues of $677 million, driven by non-investment grade loan issuance and strong investor demand.
Strong Global Presence
Morgan Stanley's global footprint, particularly in Asia, contributed significantly to its strong performance, with institutional securities revenues in Asia up 35% year over year.
Negative Updates
Market Uncertainty and Volatility
The firm faces ongoing market uncertainties, including potential recession risks and unpredictable trade policies, affecting client strategic activities.
Severance Charges Impact
The firm incurred $144 million in severance charges related to performance management and business alignment, impacting the efficiency ratio.
Challenges in Fixed Income
Fixed income trading faced fewer opportunities, with tighter credit spreads limiting secondary market opportunities compared to the previous period.
Potential Slowdown in IPO and M&A Activity
While the banking pipeline remains unchanged, ongoing market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties could delay IPO and M&A activities.
Company Guidance
During Morgan Stanley's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, CEO Ted Pick highlighted the firm's robust financial performance, reporting $7.7 billion in revenue, an EPS of $2.60, and a 23% return on tangible equity. The firm successfully added $94 billion in net new assets, raising the total to $7.7 trillion. In equities, Morgan Stanley achieved a record $4.1 billion in revenue, marking a 45% increase from the previous year, while institutional securities delivered a record $9 billion in revenue, up 28% year-over-year. The CET1 ratio stood at 15.3%, providing a solid capital position. Despite market volatility, Morgan Stanley maintained strong client engagement across segments, with wealth management generating $7.3 billion in revenue and $30 billion in fee-based flows. Asset management revenues increased by 15% to $4.4 billion, with total AUM reaching $1.6 trillion. The call emphasized Morgan Stanley's ability to navigate uncertain economic conditions and its commitment to capital management and client service.

Morgan Stanley Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Morgan Stanley shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency with a robust EBIT margin. The balance sheet is solid, but rising liabilities suggest leverage risk. Cash flow volatility indicates liquidity management challenges, impacting the overall financial performance score.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Morgan Stanley has demonstrated a solid performance in revenue growth and profitability. The company achieved a revenue growth rate of approximately 14.70% from 2023 to 2024. The EBIT margin stands at 48.04% for 2024, indicating strong operational efficiency. However, the lack of reported EBITDA in 2024 limits a full margin analysis.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a stable equity position with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 2.64 in 2023. The company's equity increased, indicating a strong financial foundation. However, the equity ratio has decreased to 8.29% in 2023 due to increasing liabilities, suggesting potential leverage risk.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow statement indicates volatility with negative free cash flow in recent years. Free cash flow to net income ratio has been negative, reflecting challenges in converting earnings into free cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was negative in 2023, highlighting cash flow pressures.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue103.14B53.61B62.48B57.78B49.68B
Gross Profit57.36B50.13B49.93B56.41B45.07B
EBITDA22.76B16.07B18.09B23.88B18.19B
Net Income13.39B9.09B11.03B15.03B11.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.22T1.19T1.18T1.19T1.12T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments401.59B461.89B467.86B500.35B474.23B
Total Debt360.49B339.04B308.75B305.36B283.53B
Total Liabilities1.11T1.09T1.08T1.08T1.01T
Stockholders Equity104.51B99.04B100.14B105.44B101.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-2.10B-36.95B-9.47B31.66B-26.68B
Operating Cash Flow1.36B-33.54B-6.40B33.97B-25.23B
Investing Cash Flow-29.46B-3.08B-11.63B-49.90B-37.90B
Financing Cash Flow46.76B-2.73B22.71B41.55B83.78B

Morgan Stanley Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price140.86
Price Trends
50DMA
126.20
Positive
100DMA
123.65
Positive
200DMA
121.91
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.61
Negative
RSI
76.95
Negative
STOCH
92.57
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 140.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 132.99, above the 50-day MA of 126.20, and above the 200-day MA of 121.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.95 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MS.

Morgan Stanley Risk Analysis

Morgan Stanley disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Morgan Stanley reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Morgan Stanley Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$23.52B29.7919.26%2.37%14.67%23.60%
MSMS
80
Outperform
$225.71B16.5113.88%2.63%6.53%55.54%
80
Outperform
$29.19B25.2640.36%0.33%26.32%8.63%
78
Outperform
$163.49B27.3514.12%1.20%2.32%37.66%
RJRJF
77
Outperform
$30.91B14.7618.84%1.30%11.78%25.68%
GSGS
73
Outperform
$211.97B16.0312.26%1.74%7.70%68.64%
58
Neutral
$12.55B5.33-2.71%5.27%5.88%-56.03%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MS
Morgan Stanley
140.86
44.30
45.88%
IBKR
Interactive Brokers
55.41
23.68
74.63%
LPLA
LPL Financial
374.97
94.15
33.53%
RJF
Raymond James Financial
153.37
32.57
26.96%
SCHW
Charles Schwab
91.24
18.12
24.78%
GS
Goldman Sachs Group
707.75
251.71
55.19%

Morgan Stanley Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Morgan Stanley Reports Record Revenues for 2024
Positive
Jan 16, 2025

On January 16, 2025, Morgan Stanley announced its financial results for Q4 and the full year of 2024, reporting significant increases in net revenues and income compared to the previous year. The firm achieved record net revenues of $61.8 billion and a 20.2% ROTCE in Q4, with strong performances across Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management, highlighting its strategic execution and market resilience.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 19, 2025