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Morgan Stanley
(NYSE:MS)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$239.00
▲(30.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong technical uptrend signals and a constructive earnings call featuring record results and solid capital/buybacks. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and a moderate dividend yield. Offsetting these positives, financial performance is capped by elevated leverage and especially volatile/negative TTM cash flow, which reduces confidence in cash conversion durability.
Positive Factors
Wealth Management scale & fee growth
Morgan Stanley's large wealth franchise generates durable fee‑based and net interest revenues: record NNA ($118B), adviser‑led assets (~$5.8T) and $419B deposits create sticky client balances and internal funding. These structural flows support recurring margins, cross‑sell of lending and investment products and stabilize revenue through market cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage & large debt stock
Morgan Stanley's balance sheet remains highly leveraged in absolute terms (debt ~$394B, debt/equity ~3.45x), increasing sensitivity to funding costs and market dislocations. Large indebtedness constrains strategic flexibility, raises refinancing and liquidity risks in stress, and magnifies capital planning complexity despite strong CET1 ratios.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Wealth Management scale & fee growth
Morgan Stanley's large wealth franchise generates durable fee‑based and net interest revenues: record NNA ($118B), adviser‑led assets (~$5.8T) and $419B deposits create sticky client balances and internal funding. These structural flows support recurring margins, cross‑sell of lending and investment products and stabilize revenue through market cycles.
Read all positive factors
Morgan Stanley Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Income Breakdown
Provides a detailed view of profit sources, illustrating how different operations contribute to the bottom line and financial health.
Provides a detailed view of profit sources, illustrating how different operations contribute to the bottom line and financial health.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMorgan Stanley (MS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$337.43B
Dividend Yield2.14%
Average Volume (3M)6.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2
Beta (1Y)1.51
Revenue Growth16.32%
EPS Growth29.43%
CountryUS
Employees81,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.13
Shares Outstanding1,577,284,800
10 Day Avg. Volume6,498,532
30 Day Avg. Volume6,054,913
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.60
Price to Book (P/B)2.50
Price to Sales (P/S)2.43
P/FCF Ratio6.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.82
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$210.73Price Target Upside14.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)11.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$77.92B
Morgan Stanley Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Morgan Stanley operates as a prominent financial holding company, delivering a comprehensive suite of financial solutions and services. Its diverse clientele spans major corporations, governmental bodies, financial institutions, and individual cli...
How the Company Makes Money
Morgan Stanley generates revenue primarily through fees, commissions, net interest income, and trading-related income across its operating segments. (1) Institutional Securities: The firm earns advisory fees for mergers and acquisitions and other ...
Morgan Stanley Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 15, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized broad-based, record-setting revenue and profitability across Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Markets, backed by strong capital metrics (CET1 15.1%, $15B capital accreted over nine quarters) and aggressive asset-gathering (NNA $118B, fee-based flows $54B). Management also highlighted strategic investments (EquityZen, digital asset pilot), strong Asia momentum and durable markets-led financing businesses. Offsetting items included an informational "learning moment" in private credit with some fund redemptions and declines in accrued carried interest, one-time severance charges of $178 million, rising RWAs and regulatory (Basel) and macro/geopolitical uncertainties. Overall, positives around top-line records, margins, capital strength and client engagement materially outweigh the manageable and mostly non-structural challenges discussed.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and EPS
Firm reported record quarterly revenues of $20.6 billion and EPS (ex DVA) of $3.43. Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was very strong at ~27.1% and the efficiency ratio improved to 65%, demonstrating operating leverage and disciplined execution.
Negative Updates
Private Credit 'Adolescent' Moment and Redemptions
Management described private credit as in an "adolescent" learning moment with some redemptions in a fund during the quarter. Investment Management saw declines in accrued carried interest in private funds. Firm emphasized exposures are modest (private credit under 1% of AUM and ~1% of wealth alternatives exposure) but flagged increased scrutiny and manager selection risks.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and EPS
Firm reported record quarterly revenues of $20.6 billion and EPS (ex DVA) of $3.43. Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was very strong at ~27.1% and the efficiency ratio improved to 65%, demonstrating operating leverage and disciplined execution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The firm gave measured, constructive near‑term guidance anchored by several specific metrics: record Q1 revenues of $20.6B and EPS of $3.43, ROTCE 27.1%, an efficiency ratio of 65% (including $178M of severance), and a standardized CET1 ratio of 15.1% vs an 11.8% requirement (>300 bps buffer) after accreting $15B of capital over the last 9 quarters and opportunistically buying back $1.75B of common stock; Q1 tax rate was 19.6% with an expected 2026 tax rate of 22–23%; management expects net interest income to “build over the course of the year” with a modest uptick in Q2 (Q1 NII $2.2B). Business‑level guidance/benchmarks included Institutional Securities revenues $10.7B (investment banking $2.1B, advisory $978M, +74% YoY; equity revenues $5.1B; fixed income $3.4B), Wealth Management records (revenues $8.5B, PBT margin 30.4%, net new assets $118B, fee‑based flows $54B, bank lending balances $186B up $5B q/q, household lending penetration 18%, period‑end deposits $419B, adviser‑led assets ~$5.8T with >$1.2T sourced from Workplace/E*TRADE and >$400B of adviser‑led inflows since 2020), and Investment/Asset Management (Investment Management revenues $1.5B, long‑term net flows $3.3B, AUM $1.9T; asset management revenues noted at $5.1B); the firm closed the EquityZen acquisition, launched a digital‑asset pilot, and expects the proposed Basel changes to be capital‑neutral to modestly positive overall (G‑SIB bucket shown moving from ~3.5% to ~2.2% in the proposal).Morgan Stanley Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 120.22B | 114.98B | 103.14B | 88.29B | 62.48B | 57.78B |
| Gross Profit | 69.72B | 65.62B | 57.36B | 50.13B | 49.93B | 56.41B |
| EBITDA | 27.93B | 26.61B | 22.76B | 16.07B | 18.09B | 23.88B |
| Net Income | 18.18B | 16.86B | 13.39B | 9.09B | 11.03B | 15.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.58T | 1.42T | 1.22T | 1.19T | 1.18T | 1.19T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 659.74B | 539.97B | 401.59B | 461.89B | 467.86B | 500.35B |
| Total Debt | 394.23B | 475.56B | 360.49B | 339.04B | 308.75B | 305.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.47T | 1.31T | 1.11T | 1.09T | 1.08T | 1.08T |
| Stockholders Equity | 114.29B | 111.63B | 104.51B | 99.04B | 100.14B | 105.44B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.05B | 46.10B | -2.10B | -36.95B | -9.47B | 31.66B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.01B | 49.00B | 1.36B | -33.54B | -6.40B | 33.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -48.34B | -144.22B | -29.46B | -3.08B | -11.63B | -49.90B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 91.17B | 98.31B | 46.76B | -2.73B | 22.71B | 41.55B |
Morgan Stanley Technical Analysis
Positive
183.34
Price Trends
203.73
Positive
186.27
Positive
177.15
Positive
Market Momentum
2.88
Positive
52.51
Neutral
19.67
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 183.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 216.28, below the 50-day MA of 203.73, and above the 200-day MA of 177.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MS.
Morgan Stanley Risk Analysis
Morgan Stanley disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Morgan Stanley reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Morgan Stanley Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $871.43B | 15.40 | 16.32% | 1.79% | 1.33% | 2.47% | |
73 Outperform | $337.43B | 19.22 | 16.38% | 2.14% | 16.32% | 29.43% | |
72 Outperform | $416.78B | 14.36 | 10.50% | 1.93% | -1.69% | 20.90% | |
72 Outperform | $168.70B | 19.17 | 19.08% | 1.07% | 8.11% | 53.31% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $323.49B | 18.44 | 14.58% | 1.55% | 2.63% | 26.98% | |
65 Neutral | $240.04B | 17.06 | 7.53% | 1.94% | 3.02% | 27.74% |
* Financial Sector Average
MS
Morgan Stanley
213.93
73.19
52.00%
BAC
Bank of America
58.73
10.84
22.65%
C
Citigroup
139.97
53.22
61.34%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
334.47
42.72
14.64%
SCHW
Charles Schwab
97.00
6.67
7.38%
GS
Goldman Sachs Group
1,021.00
311.60
43.92%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.