Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)
NYSE:NGVC
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Natural Grocers
(NYSE:NGVC)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(6.59% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (growing sales, expanding margins, and strong recent cash generation) and a supportive valuation (moderate P/E with a dividend). These positives are tempered by weak technical trends (trading below key moving averages) and earnings-call risks around shrink-driven margin pressure and near-term EPS headwinds from accelerated store openings.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Margin Improvement
Consistent revenue growth and a rise in net margin to ~3.5% reflect sustained demand and improving operating efficiency. Over several quarters this builds operating leverage, funds reinvestment into stores and programs, and strengthens the core earnings trajectory versus peers.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Meaningful leverage for a grocery retailer constrains financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to interest-rate and cash‑flow shocks. With modest margins, elevated debt limits the company’s ability to fund opportunistic investments or absorb operational setbacks without raising external capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Margin Improvement
Consistent revenue growth and a rise in net margin to ~3.5% reflect sustained demand and improving operating efficiency. Over several quarters this builds operating leverage, funds reinvestment into stores and programs, and strengthens the core earnings trajectory versus peers.
Read all positive factors
Natural Grocers (NGVC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$612.68M
Dividend Yield1.99%
Average Volume (3M)133.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth7.19%
EPS Growth35.90%
CountryUS
Employees3,332
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.53
Shares Outstanding23,033,092
10 Day Avg. Volume107,879
30 Day Avg. Volume133,232
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)4.32
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio38.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.61
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.39B
Natural Grocers Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce...
How the Company Makes Money
Natural Grocers generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural and organic products in its retail stores. The company benefits from a diverse revenue model that includes the sale of groceries, health and wellness products, dietary supplem...
Natural Grocers Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Natural Grocers Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents more positive than negative developments: modest top-line growth, strong two-year comps, double-digit EPS growth, substantial operating income improvement, rewards penetration gains, private-label expansion, and healthy cash flow and liquidity. Headwinds include a 40-basis-point gross margin decline primarily from inventory shrink and one-time events, cautious consumer behavior reducing items per basket, slight weakness in high-margin categories (supplements), and a ~$0.12 per-share near-term drag from accelerated store openings. Management reaffirmed guidance and articulated a clear growth and investment plan, balancing short-term margin pressures with longer-term growth initiatives.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Net sales increased 1.6% year-over-year to $335.6 million in Q1 FY2026.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Pressure from Inventory Shrink
Gross margin decreased 40 basis points to 29.5%, primarily due to higher inventory shrink driven largely by isolated events (weather-related power outages, store closures) and some operational execution variances.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Net sales increased 1.6% year-over-year to $335.6 million in Q1 FY2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Natural Grocers reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, planning to open six to eight new stores (pace weighted to the back half of the year), relocate or remodel two to three stores, and target 4%–5% annual new‑store unit growth going forward; it expects daily‑average comparable‑store sales growth of 1.5%–4.0%, diluted EPS of $2.00–$2.15, and $50–$55 million of capital expenditures, with an expected ~$0.12 EPS headwind in FY26 from accelerated new‑store preopening costs. Management said comps should be at the low end of the range through Q2 and increase slightly in H2 as prior‑year comps moderate, anticipates modest inflation in line with current trends, expects year‑over‑year gross margin to be relatively flat (dependent on promotional activity), and sees store expenses as a percent of sales flat to slightly lower.Natural Grocers Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.33B | 1.24B | 1.14B | 1.09B | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 397.91M | 397.88M | 364.81M | 326.93M | 304.88M | 292.19M |
| EBITDA | 95.13M | 93.80M | 77.91M | 62.08M | 58.76M | 58.76M |
| Net Income | 47.84M | 46.44M | 33.94M | 23.24M | 21.36M | 20.58M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 668.56M | 670.50M | 655.48M | 669.18M | 663.11M | 655.08M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.21M | 17.12M | 8.87M | 18.34M | 12.04M | 23.68M |
| Total Debt | 324.95M | 332.02M | 346.51M | 370.18M | 393.37M | 401.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 448.55M | 458.11M | 481.22M | 498.34M | 507.30M | 512.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 220.01M | 212.40M | 174.25M | 170.84M | 155.81M | 142.73M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 93.13M | 24.10M | 35.08M | 26.51M | 8.25M | 25.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 108.19M | 55.30M | 73.76M | 64.61M | 39.69M | 53.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -31.13M | -30.97M | -38.60M | -37.95M | -31.14M | -27.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -60.16M | -16.09M | -44.63M | -20.35M | -20.19M | -30.98M |
Natural Grocers Technical Analysis
Positive
25.33
Price Trends
25.92
Positive
26.15
Positive
31.94
Negative
Market Momentum
0.19
Negative
58.03
Neutral
72.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGVC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.74, below the 50-day MA of 25.92, and below the 200-day MA of 31.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGVC.
Natural Grocers Risk Analysis
Natural Grocers disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natural Grocers reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natural Grocers Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $596.49M | 7.26 | 11.37% | 2.63% | 3.88% | 7.71% | |
66 Neutral | $612.68M | 12.71 | 23.11% | 1.99% | 7.19% | 35.90% | |
65 Neutral | $7.19B | 15.05 | 38.21% | ― | 16.60% | 49.76% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $1.77B | 11.86 | 5.93% | 0.93% | -5.42% | -20.80% | |
58 Neutral | $1.81B | 17.84 | 6.83% | 2.06% | 3.11% | 6.54% | |
46 Neutral | $689.03M | -4.43 | -19.78% | ― | 7.22% | -108.99% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
NGVC
Natural Grocers
26.60
-19.22
-41.94%
IMKTA
Ingles Markets
95.23
31.93
50.44%
VLGEA
Village Super Market
44.83
9.76
27.84%
WMK
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73.04
-6.93
-8.67%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
76.02
-77.90
-50.61%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
7.02
-7.19
-50.60%
Natural Grocers Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Natural Grocers Shareholders Approve Directors and Auditor Renewal
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., a publicly traded retailer of natural and organic groceries and dietary supplements, caters to health-conscious consumers through its specialized product offerings in the grocery sector. The company’...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.