Newmarket (NEU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.88B
• Dividend Yield: 1.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 143.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: -1.11%
• EPS Growth: 5.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,060
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 8.65
• Shares Outstanding: 9,397,364
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 134,413
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 143,858
• PEG Ratio: -1.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.54
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.47B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $666.00 ▼(-7.59% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

NEU scores in the mid-range primarily due to strong profitability, solid recent cash generation, and a strengthened balance sheet, supported by a reasonable valuation. The score is held back by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD) and a mixed earnings-call backdrop, with softness in Petroleum Additives and tax/margin headwinds partially offsetting Specialty Materials momentum and continued capital returns.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Consistent, high operating cash flow and free cash flow over 2023–2025 provide durable internal funding for capex, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks. Strong cash conversion supports capital allocation flexibility and resilience through cyclical end-market swings over the next several months.

Improved balance sheet

Material reduction in leverage and expanded equity strengthen financial flexibility and reduce refinancing risk. Lower net debt/EBITDA and a more resilient capital structure support continued investment in growth initiatives and maintain capacity for shareholder returns during industry cycles.

Specialty Materials expansion

Large, targeted capital commitment to specialty materials signals strategic diversification into higher‑growth, higher‑technology end markets. Accretive M&A and capacity investment can reweight revenue mix toward specialty products and improve long-term margin and growth profile over 2–6 months and beyond.

Negative Factors

Core Petroleum Additives softness

Sustained weakness in the core petroleum additives business—declining shipments, sales and operating profit—threatens the company’s primary revenue engine. If demand or pricing pressures persist, near‑term structural earnings and cash flow could be constrained, limiting upside from investments.

Revenue decline and cash volatility

A marked revenue drop in 2025 and prior-year cash conversion swings indicate exposure to cyclical demand and working‑capital variability. Persistent top‑line volatility can stress margin sustainability and complicate planning for capex, acquisitions and stable shareholder returns over the medium term.

Margin headwinds (taxes, inflation, tariffs)

Rising effective tax rate plus inflationary input costs, tariffs and inventory/production adjustments are structural headwinds that compress unit margins. These factors can persist across quarters, eroding profitability unless offset by pricing, mix improvements, or sustained cost reductions.

Newmarket Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NewMarket Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the petroleum additives business. The company offers lubricant additives for use in various vehicle and industrial applications, including engine oils, transmission fluids, off-road powertrain and hydraulic systems, gear oils, hydraulic oils, turbine oils, and other applications where metal-to-metal moving parts are utilized; engine oil additives designed for passenger cars, motorcycles, on and off-road heavy duty commercial equipment, locomotives, and engines in ocean-going vessels; driveline additives designed for products, such as transmission fluids, axle fluids, and off-road powertrain fluids; and industrial additives designed for products for industrial applications consisting of hydraulic fluids, grease, industrial gear fluids, and industrial specialty applications, such as turbine oils. It also provides fuel additives that are used to enhance the oil refining process and the performance of gasoline, diesel, biofuels, and other fuels to industry, government, original equipment manufacturers, and individual customers. In addition, the company engages in the antiknock compounds business, as well as contracted manufacturing and services activities; and owns and manages a real property in Virginia. It operates in North America, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India. NewMarket Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Newmarket generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its software products and services. The company employs a SaaS (Software as a Service) model, where clients pay a recurring fee for access to its technology platform, including updates and customer support. In addition to subscription revenue, Newmarket also earns income through implementation services, customized solutions for specific customer needs, and ongoing training for staff. Significant partnerships with major hospitality brands and technology vendors enhance its market reach and contribute to its earnings by enabling cross-promotional opportunities and bundled service offerings.

Newmarket Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and improving profitability and consistently robust operating/free cash flow in 2023–2025 support the score. Offsetting factors include a sharp reported revenue decline in 2025 and some cash flow volatility (notably weaker conversion in 2022 and negative FCF growth in 2025). Leverage improvement is a positive, but absolute debt remains meaningful.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong and improving versus earlier years: gross margin rose from ~23% (2021–2022) to ~31% (2024–2025), and net margin expanded to ~15–17% (2023–2025) from ~8–10% (2021–2022). Net income also climbed meaningfully from 2021 through 2024 before a modest pullback in 2025. The key weakness is the sharp reported revenue decline in 2025 (negative growth), which introduces volatility and limits the score despite healthy margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially: debt relative to equity fell from ~1.6x (2021) and ~1.4x (2022) to ~0.7x (2023–2024) and ~0.5x (2025), reflecting strengthening capitalization. Shareholders’ equity has expanded significantly over time, supporting a more resilient balance sheet. Offsetting this, absolute debt remains sizable and returns on equity, while strong (~24–36%), have moderated from peak levels, suggesting profitability may be normalizing.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength in the last three years: operating cash flow has been consistently robust (roughly $520–$577M in 2023–2025) and free cash flow has remained high (roughly $462–$529M in 2023–2025). Cash flow quality is solid, with free cash flow running at ~86–92% of net income in 2023–2025. The main risk is volatility: 2022 saw weak cash conversion (operating cash flow well below net income), and 2025 free cash flow growth was sharply negative, indicating potential swings in working capital or spending.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.73B	2.79B	2.70B	2.76B	2.36B
Gross Profit	857.40M	886.35M	772.51M	640.50M	547.71M
EBITDA	666.15M	758.43M	604.33M	465.22M	401.09M
Net Income	418.75M	462.41M	388.86M	279.54M	190.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.49B	3.13B	2.31B	2.41B	2.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	77.60M	77.48M	111.94M	68.71M	459.22M
Total Debt	961.64M	1.06B	733.60M	1.09B	1.23B
Total Liabilities	1.71B	1.67B	1.23B	1.64B	1.80B
Stockholders Equity	1.78B	1.46B	1.08B	762.41M	762.13M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	491.33M	462.27M	528.53M	52.45M	86.40M
Operating Cash Flow	568.97M	519.59M	576.82M	108.62M	165.34M
Investing Cash Flow	-291.08M	-738.80M	-48.29M	315.89M	-461.41M
Financing Cash Flow	-279.14M	185.81M	-487.59M	-439.36M	255.13M

Newmarket Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 720.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NEU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 720.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 652.08, above the 50-day MA of 674.70, and below the 200-day MA of 724.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -19.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NEU.

Newmarket Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ESI	70 Outperform	$8.55B	44.58	7.55%	1.25%	3.87%	-10.30%
EMN	68 Neutral	$8.62B	18.42	8.07%	5.33%	-3.33%	-19.59%
NEU	66 Neutral	$5.88B	14.09	25.75%	1.59%	-1.11%	5.15%
AXTA	65 Neutral	$7.13B	19.20	17.75%	―	-1.83%	40.64%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ALB	60 Neutral	$21.06B	-31.04	-5.24%	1.10%	-23.92%	90.47%
AVTR	50 Neutral	$6.17B	-11.64	-9.20%	―	-3.59%	-126.16%

Newmarket Corporate Events

NewMarket Declares Quarterly Dividend, Signaling Ongoing Confidence

On February 26, 2026, NewMarket Corporation announced that its board of directors had declared a quarterly dividend of $3.00 per share on its common stock. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on April 1, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 16, 2026.

The increased quarterly dividend underlines NewMarket’s continued emphasis on returning capital to shareholders, supported by cash flows from its fuel additives and aerospace and defense materials businesses. The move may signal management’s confidence in the company’s financial position and the resilience of demand across its petroleum additives and mission-critical propellant markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (NEU) stock is a Hold with a $660.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Newmarket stock, see the NEU Stock Forecast page.

NewMarket Strengthens Finance Team With New Accounting Officer

On February 18, 2026, NewMarket Corporation appointed Susan M. Ridlehoover as Principal Accounting Officer, effective immediately, reflecting a further build-out of its senior finance team. Ridlehoover, a licensed CPA in Virginia with more than two decades of experience at firms including Ernst & Young, Dominion Energy and Sonoco Products Company, joined NewMarket as Controller in January 2026 and will receive a $235,000 base salary with eligibility for bonuses, stock awards and standard company benefits, underscoring the company’s focus on seasoned accounting leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (NEU) stock is a Buy with a $768.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Newmarket stock, see the NEU Stock Forecast page.