Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.59B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: -1.83%
• EPS Growth: 40.64%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,900
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.59
• Shares Outstanding: 213,373,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,993,924
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,357,941
• PEG Ratio: -10.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.32
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.81
• 1Y Price Target: $38.40
• Price Target Upside: 12.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(5.73% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/14/26

The score is primarily supported by improving margins, strong free-cash-flow generation, and ongoing deleveraging, reinforced by upbeat (but cautious) 2026 profitability and cash flow guidance. The main constraints are weak/uneven top-line trends (including an expected soft start to 2026), a still-material debt load, and a valuation that is only moderate given the growth backdrop.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Consistently strong free cash flow provides durable funding for debt reduction, targeted CapEx and integration spending for the Akzo merger. Reliable cash conversion supports financial flexibility and sustains investment in productivity initiatives even if revenue stays uneven.

Margin expansion / record EBITDA

Material margin improvement reflects price/mix, procurement savings and productivity actions. Higher operating leverage and structural cost reductions make earnings more resilient to volume cycles and underpin sustainable cash generation over the medium term.

Scale & synergy from Akzo merger

The planned merger is a structural shift that materially expands geographic reach, product breadth and R&D scale. Realizing $600M of synergies could permanently lower cost structure and broaden end-market exposure, improving long-term growth and margin potential.

Negative Factors

Weak/uneven revenue trends

Persistent top-line pressure reduces revenue resilience and limits ability to fully leverage improved margins. Continued volume weakness or slower recovery would erode operating leverage, constrain cash flow upside and increase reliance on cost cuts for profit growth.

Material absolute debt load

Although leverage is trending down, a multi-billion dollar debt balance restricts capital allocation flexibility and increases sensitivity to interest expense and cyclical earnings. A prolonged slowdown could slow deleveraging and crowd out reinvestment or dividends.

Cyclicality & timing risk

Heavy exposure to automotive cycles, distributor destocking and weaker commercial vehicle builds creates meaningful timing risk for recovery. Back-half weighted targets depend on external macro catalysts and inventory normalization, raising execution risk for projected 2026 objectives.

Axalta Coating Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes high-performance coatings systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through two segments, Performance Coatings and Transportation Coatings. The company offers water and solvent-borne products and systems to repair damaged vehicles for independent body shops, multi-shop operators, and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) dealership body shops. It also provides functional and decorative liquid, and powder coatings used in various industrial applications, including architectural cladding and fittings, automotive coatings, general industrial, job coaters, energy solutions, HVAC, appliances, industrial wood, coil, and oil and gas pipelines; and coatings for building materials, cabinet, wood and luxury vinyl flooring, and furniture market under the Voltatex, AquaEC, Durapon, Hydropon, UNRIVALED, Tufcote, and Ceranamel for liquid coatings; and Alesta, Nap-Gard, Abcite, Teodur, and Plascoat brands for powder coatings. In addition, the company develops and supplies electrocoat, primer, the basecoat, and clearcoat products for OEMs of light and commercial vehicles; and coatings systems for various commercial applications, including HDT, bus, and rail under the Imron, Imron Elite, Centari, Rival, Corlar epoxy undercoats, and AquaEC brands. It also sells its product under the Audurra, Challenger, Chemophan, ColorNet, Cromax, Cromax Mosaic, Durapon 70, Duxone, Harmonized Coating Technologies, Imron ExcelPro, Lutophen, Nason, Spies Hecker, Standox, Stollaquid, Syntopal, Syrox, Raptor, U-POL, and Vermeera brand names. The company was formerly known as Axalta Coating Systems Bermuda Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. in August 2014. Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Axalta generates revenue primarily through the sale of its coating products, which are categorized into several key segments: automotive coatings, industrial coatings, and architectural coatings. The automotive segment, which includes OEM and refinish products, is a significant contributor to its revenue, driven by demand for vehicle manufacturing and repair. The industrial segment encompasses coatings for various applications, including general industrial, transportation, and protective coatings. Additionally, Axalta offers value-added services such as color matching and technical support, which enhance customer loyalty and recurring revenue. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and industrial firms, allowing it to leverage its technological expertise and expand its market presence. Overall, Axalta's focus on innovation, customer relationships, and operational efficiency plays a crucial role in its revenue generation.

Axalta Coating Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and cash generation are improving (EBIT and net margins expanded, free cash flow consistently positive and up in the latest year), and leverage is trending down. Offsetting this, revenue has been weak/uneven with a sharp decline indicated in the latest dataset, and the absolute debt load remains meaningful.

Income Statement

Revenue has been essentially flat over the last few years and declined in 2025 (annual revenue growth -94.9% per provided data point), but profitability improved meaningfully versus 2022–2023. Gross margin has generally held in the low-30% range (about 29%–34%), while operating profitability strengthened with EBIT margin improving from ~8.1% (2022) to ~14.4% (2025). Net margin also expanded from ~3.9% (2022) to ~7.4% (2024–2025). Key weakness is the lack of consistent top-line growth, with the latest year showing a sharp drop per the dataset.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains elevated but is improving: debt-to-equity decreased from ~2.62x (2022) and ~2.09x (2023) to ~1.36x (2025), driven by rising equity and modestly lower debt. Returns on equity are solid (mid-teens to ~20% range recently), indicating decent profitability on the capital base. The main risk is still the absolute debt load (about $3.2B in 2025), which can pressure flexibility if earnings weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength. Free cash flow is consistently positive and improved in 2025 (up ~33.6% per provided data), with operating cash flow also rising versus 2024. Free cash flow is a healthy share of net income (roughly ~70%–84% across the period), supporting debt reduction and reinvestment capacity. A key watch item is that operating cash flow relative to EBIT is under 0.5x in recent years (about ~0.40–0.47), suggesting working-capital or cash conversion dynamics that can limit cash build despite improved margins.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.12B	5.28B	5.18B	4.88B	4.42B
Gross Profit	1.66B	1.80B	1.62B	1.42B	1.43B
EBITDA	1.03B	981.00M	844.00M	700.00M	791.20M
Net Income	378.00M	391.00M	267.00M	192.00M	263.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.60B	7.25B	7.27B	7.06B	7.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	660.00M	593.00M	703.10M	654.90M	840.60M
Total Debt	3.39B	3.52B	3.61B	3.81B	3.86B
Total Liabilities	5.21B	5.29B	5.50B	5.56B	5.68B
Stockholders Equity	2.35B	1.91B	1.73B	1.45B	1.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	453.00M	436.00M	437.40M	142.90M	437.00M
Operating Cash Flow	649.00M	576.00M	575.30M	293.80M	558.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-212.00M	-440.00M	-205.70M	-106.40M	-716.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-401.00M	-201.00M	-315.00M	-368.90M	-334.50M

Axalta Coating Systems Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 34.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.03, above the 50-day MA of 33.10, and above the 200-day MA of 30.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXTA.

Axalta Coating Systems Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RPM	71 Outperform	$14.98B	22.52	22.72%	1.96%	3.09%	12.25%
EMN	68 Neutral	$9.16B	19.57	8.07%	5.33%	-3.33%	-19.59%
PPG	68 Neutral	$28.78B	18.48	21.34%	2.71%	-12.98%	-11.34%
SHW	67 Neutral	$90.67B	35.65	59.39%	0.98%	0.96%	1.96%
AXTA	65 Neutral	$7.59B	19.90	17.75%	―	-1.83%	40.64%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
IFF	57 Neutral	$21.25B	-59.59	-2.48%	2.41%	-3.01%	82.30%

Axalta Coating Systems Corporate Events

Axalta Grants Executive Retention Bonuses Amid Akzo Merger

On November 18, 2025, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. entered into an all-stock, merger-of-equals agreement with Dutch-based Akzo Nobel N.V., and on December 15, 2025, Axalta’s board compensation committee approved cash retention bonuses for several senior executives in connection with this planned transaction. The bonuses, totaling more than $3.4 million for three named executive officers, will vest and be paid in full six months after the merger’s closing, with prorated or full payments available in cases of qualifying termination, death, or disability, signaling the company’s intent to secure leadership continuity and stability through the merger integration period and protect key talent for stakeholders during the transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXTA) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axalta Coating Systems stock, see the AXTA Stock Forecast page.

Axalta Coating Systems Announces Merger with Akzo Nobel

On November 18, 2025, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. and Akzo Nobel N.V. announced a merger agreement to combine in an all-stock merger of equals, creating a leading global coatings company with an enterprise value of approximately $25 billion. The merger aims to enhance value for stakeholders by leveraging complementary portfolios, achieving significant cost synergies of approximately $600 million, and expanding geographic reach and innovation capabilities. The combined entity, to be dual-headquartered in Amsterdam and Philadelphia, will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange and Euronext Amsterdam, with a focus on delivering exceptional value to customers and driving substantial growth and shareholder value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXTA) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axalta Coating Systems stock, see the AXTA Stock Forecast page.