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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA)
NYSE:AXTA

Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) AI Stock Analysis

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Axalta Coating Systems

(NYSE:AXTA)

75Outperform
Axalta demonstrates strong financial performance and positive earnings call results, driving the overall score. Key strengths include revenue growth, improved margins, and strategic initiatives. Technical analysis presents caution with downward trends, while valuation is reasonable. Despite challenges such as foreign currency headwinds and refinish market conditions, Axalta's overall outlook remains positive, supported by a solid financial foundation and strategic growth plans.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Management has been executing well, beating EBITDA guidance by ~5% a quarter, despite weak macro dynamics.
Industry Trends
Higher light vehicle volumes driven by an upward revision to industry-wide auto production contribute positively to Axalta's prospects.
New Business Wins
AXTA is benefitting from new wins, helping lift Auto OEM and industrial volumes.
Negative Factors
Geopolitical Risks
Negatives include geopolitical volatility, industrial production/consumer sentiment, and a ~$10MM direct tariff impact.
Market Concerns
A more cautious view on 2025 is taken, reducing EBITDA by ~2%, which is ~2% below consensus.
Volume Revisions
There is a modest downward revision to Refinish and Commercial Vehicle volumes, which could negatively impact the company's performance.

Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Axalta Coating Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAxalta Coating Systems Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes high-performance coatings systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through two segments, Performance Coatings and Transportation Coatings. The company offers water and solvent-borne products and systems to repair damaged vehicles for independent body shops, multi-shop operators, and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) dealership body shops. It also provides functional and decorative liquid, and powder coatings used in various industrial applications, including architectural cladding and fittings, automotive coatings, general industrial, job coaters, energy solutions, HVAC, appliances, industrial wood, coil, and oil and gas pipelines; and coatings for building materials, cabinet, wood and luxury vinyl flooring, and furniture market under the Voltatex, AquaEC, Durapon, Hydropon, UNRIVALED, Tufcote, and Ceranamel for liquid coatings; and Alesta, Nap-Gard, Abcite, Teodur, and Plascoat brands for powder coatings. In addition, the company develops and supplies electrocoat, primer, the basecoat, and clearcoat products for OEMs of light and commercial vehicles; and coatings systems for various commercial applications, including HDT, bus, and rail under the Imron, Imron Elite, Centari, Rival, Corlar epoxy undercoats, and AquaEC brands. It also sells its product under the Audurra, Challenger, Chemophan, ColorNet, Cromax, Cromax Mosaic, Durapon 70, Duxone, Harmonized Coating Technologies, Imron ExcelPro, Lutophen, Nason, Spies Hecker, Standox, Stollaquid, Syntopal, Syrox, Raptor, U-POL, and Vermeera brand names. The company was formerly known as Axalta Coating Systems Bermuda Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. in August 2014. Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyAxalta Coating Systems generates revenue through the sale of its various coating products across two main segments: Performance Coatings and Transportation Coatings. The Performance Coatings segment caters to customers in the industrial, commercial, and refinish markets, providing coatings for vehicles, buildings, and machinery. The Transportation Coatings segment focuses on original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the automotive and commercial vehicle sectors, supplying coatings used in the production of new vehicles. Axalta's revenue model is bolstered by strategic partnerships with automotive and industrial companies, enabling it to maintain a steady demand for its products. The company also invests in research and development to innovate new products and improve existing ones, further driving sales and maintaining competitive advantage in its markets.

Axalta Coating Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Axalta Coating Systems exhibits robust financial health with strong revenue growth from $3.74 billion in 2020 to $5.28 billion in TTM 2024. Improved profitability is shown by a significant increase in gross and net profit margins. The balance sheet has strengthened with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01 and a high return on equity of 20.45%. Cash flow is strong, although there was a slight dip in free cash flow in TTM 2024. Overall, the company's financial position is solid, but it must manage margins and leverage.
Income Statement
Axalta Coating Systems has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years with a notable increase from $3.74 billion in 2020 to $5.28 billion in TTM 2024. The gross profit margin has improved significantly, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies. The net profit margin has also increased, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the margins could face pressure if costs rise or pricing power diminishes.
Balance Sheet
78
The company's balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01 in TTM 2024, which is a significant reduction from previous years, enhancing financial stability. Return on equity has improved to 20.45%, indicating effective utilization of equity. The equity ratio is 26.38%, suggesting a reasonable level of leverage. However, the low equity ratio could pose risks if asset values fluctuate.
Cash Flow
Axalta has shown a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash conversion. The free cash flow has grown, with a slight dip in TTM 2024, but it remains positive, reflecting the company's ability to generate cash after capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, supporting financial flexibility.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
5.28B5.18B4.88B4.42B3.74B
Gross Profit
1.80B1.62B1.42B1.43B1.28B
EBIT
706.00M587.50M423.20M462.40M305.50M
EBITDA
706.00M831.00M754.50M828.60M598.30M
Net Income Common Stockholders
391.00M267.40M191.60M263.90M121.60M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
593.00M700.20M645.20M840.60M1.36B
Total Assets
7.25B7.27B7.06B7.22B7.16B
Total Debt
20.00M3.54B3.70B3.83B3.89B
Net Debt
-573.00M2.84B3.06B2.99B2.53B
Total Liabilities
5.29B5.50B5.56B5.68B5.68B
Stockholders Equity
1.91B1.73B1.45B1.49B1.43B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
436.00M437.40M142.90M437.00M427.20M
Operating Cash Flow
576.00M575.30M293.80M558.60M509.30M
Investing Cash Flow
-440.00M-205.70M-106.40M-716.00M-61.50M
Financing Cash Flow
-201.00M-315.00M-368.90M-334.50M-130.90M

Axalta Coating Systems Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price33.27
Price Trends
50DMA
33.08
Positive
100DMA
34.62
Negative
200DMA
35.62
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.05
Negative
RSI
57.23
Neutral
STOCH
84.37
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.60, above the 50-day MA of 33.08, and below the 200-day MA of 35.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.37 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AXTA.

Axalta Coating Systems Risk Analysis

Axalta Coating Systems disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axalta Coating Systems reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Axalta Coating Systems Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
SHSHW
78
Outperform
$90.13B34.0370.22%0.81%0.26%12.82%
75
Outperform
$7.25B18.7421.49%1.77%47.48%
EMEMN
68
Neutral
$9.00B9.9216.16%4.21%2.78%1.50%
PPPPG
62
Neutral
$25.08B18.7218.47%2.43%-7.67%-0.58%
FUFUL
61
Neutral
$2.94B27.366.35%1.68%0.99%-27.62%
CCCC
56
Neutral
$1.87B21.8312.98%8.26%-4.05%
49
Neutral
$1.96B-1.23-21.20%3.73%0.88%-29.24%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems
33.27
-2.91
-8.04%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
76.09
-21.20
-21.79%
FUL
H.B. Fuller Company
53.18
-24.97
-31.95%
PPG
PPG Industries
108.56
-22.76
-17.33%
SHW
Sherwin-Williams Company
352.52
36.40
11.51%
CC
Chemours Company
12.10
-14.45
-54.43%

Axalta Coating Systems Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -5.24%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Axalta's earnings call showcased strong performance with record-breaking financial metrics, improved margins, and strategic growth initiatives, despite facing foreign currency headwinds, challenges in the Refinish market, and new tariff concerns.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Sales and Earnings
Axalta reported the highest net sales and adjusted EBITDA in its history for fiscal year 2024, with a record fourth-quarter net sales of $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $275 million, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth.
Improved Financial Metrics
Adjusted EBITDA margins improved by 170 basis points versus the prior year to 21%, achieving the margin objective set for 2026 ahead of schedule. Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 30% year-over-year to $0.60 in the fourth quarter.
Strong Balance Sheet
Axalta's balance sheet continued to improve, with the total net leverage ratio declining for the eighth consecutive quarter to 2.5x, reaching the high end of their A plan target range.
Successful Transformation Initiatives
Axalta achieved approximately $20 million in transformation savings in 2024, exceeding their plan and aiming for $75 million in total savings. Variable costs were reduced by 7%, and delivery times improved by 10%.
Strategic Growth Initiatives
Secured approximately 2,800 net new body shop wins in Refinish and completed the acquisition of the CoverFlexx Group, contributing to a 5% growth in light vehicle net sales despite a decline in global auto builds.
Partnership for Digital Paint Solutions
Announced a strategic partnership with Dürr for automotive digital paint solutions, enhancing Axalta's offerings with Dürr's robotics experience.
Negative Updates
Foreign Currency Headwinds
The company faced meaningful foreign currency headwinds in the fourth quarter, not anticipated in prior guidance, which impacted net sales by approximately $80 million to $100 million year-over-year.
Refinish Market Challenges
Industry conditions in the Refinish market were challenging, with expected industry volumes to be flat to down low single digits in North America and EMEA for 2025.
Industrial Coatings Volume Decline
Industrial net sales declined 5% year-over-year due to volume declines driven by demand weakness in North America.
Tariff Concerns
New tariffs put in place by the U.S. government on Canada, Mexico, and China could create a challenging global trade environment, with an anticipated adjusted EBITDA impact of $10 million.
Company Guidance
During Axalta's Q4 2024 earnings call, the company reported record-breaking results, achieving the highest net sales and adjusted EBITDA in its history. The fourth quarter net sales reached $1.3 billion, with a 10% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $275 million. This growth was driven by contributions from the CoverFlexx acquisition and net new body shop wins, despite facing challenges like foreign currency headwinds. Axalta improved its adjusted EBITDA margins by 170 basis points to 21%, reaching its 2026 A plan margin objective ahead of schedule. Adjusted diluted EPS rose by 30% year-over-year to $0.60. Additionally, the company continued to strengthen its balance sheet, reducing the net leverage ratio for the eighth consecutive quarter to a company record of 2.5x. Looking ahead to 2025, Axalta anticipates net sales growth in the low single digits and adjusted diluted EPS between $2.50 and $2.60, reflecting a 9% increase at the midpoint.

Axalta Coating Systems Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Axalta Coating Systems Updates Financial Reporting Metrics
Neutral
Jan 21, 2025

Axalta Coating Systems announced changes in the presentation of certain non-GAAP financial metrics, effective from the fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results. These adjustments involve ceasing the step-up depreciation and amortization from a past acquisition in the calculation of Adjusted EBIT and Adjusted Net Income, while beginning to adjust for all acquired intangibles’ amortization. The changes aim to align Axalta’s reporting with industry standards and will affect related metrics like ROIC and Adjusted Diluted EPS. Despite these changes, Axalta’s financial targets for its 2026 strategic plan remain unchanged, with an updated 2023 baseline for Adjusted Diluted EPS set at $1.68 per share.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.