Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA)
NYSE:AXTA
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Axalta Coating Systems
(NYSE:AXTA)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(7.16% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/14/26
The score is primarily supported by improving margins, strong free-cash-flow generation, and ongoing deleveraging, reinforced by upbeat (but cautious) 2026 profitability and cash flow guidance. The main constraints are weak/uneven top-line trends (including an expected soft start to 2026), a still-material debt load, and a valuation that is only moderate given the growth backdrop.
Positive Factors
Margin Expansion
Sustained margin expansion demonstrates improved operating leverage and execution on cost initiatives. Record adjusted EBITDA and a ~22% EBITDA margin reflect structural improvements (pricing, mix, productivity) that can support profitability through cyclical volume swings.
Negative Factors
Weak Top-line Trends
Stagnant-to-declining revenue constrains the durability of profit gains and limits secular growth prospects. Reliance on price/mix and cost cuts to drive EPS creates execution risk if volumes remain soft or competitive dynamics pressure share over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin Expansion
Sustained margin expansion demonstrates improved operating leverage and execution on cost initiatives. Record adjusted EBITDA and a ~22% EBITDA margin reflect structural improvements (pricing, mix, productivity) that can support profitability through cyclical volume swings.
Read all positive factors
Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.58B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.5
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth-1.83%
EPS Growth40.64%
CountryUS
Employees12,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.59
Shares Outstanding213,373,950
10 Day Avg. Volume3,222,433
30 Day Avg. Volume2,995,603
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-10.95
Price to Book (P/B)2.97
Price to Sales (P/S)1.36
P/FCF Ratio15.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.00Price Target Upside37.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.19B
Axalta Coating Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes high-performance coatings systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through two segment...
How the Company Makes Money
Axalta makes money primarily by selling coatings and related products to customers in two main segments: (1) Performance Coatings and (2) Mobility Coatings. In Performance Coatings, a major revenue stream comes from automotive refinish—selling pai...
Axalta Coating Systems Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus and market opportunities.
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus and market opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAxalta Coating Systems Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial performance story: record adjusted EBITDA, significant free cash flow generation, margin expansion, material cost and productivity gains, deleveraging, and a compelling merger rationale with $600M of identified synergies. However, these positives are tempered by near-term demand weaknesses—particularly in North America, Refinish, Performance Coatings and commercial vehicles—destocking/distributor consolidation, Q4 net income headwinds from tax and transaction costs, and a cautious, back-half weighted 2026 outlook that starts with an expected Q1 revenue decline. Management frames most pressures as transitory and highlights substantial readiness to capitalize on recovery and merger benefits.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Financial Performance
2025 adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.13 billion (record), up $317M since 2022; full-year adjusted diluted EPS $2.49 (6% growth vs. 2024); adjusted EBITDA margin of 22% (expanded significantly vs. prior years).
Negative Updates
Top-line Pressure and Revenue Declines
2025 net sales declined 3% YoY to $5.117 billion; Q4 net sales declined ~4% YoY driven by lower volumes in North America across businesses.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Financial Performance
2025 adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.13 billion (record), up $317M since 2022; full-year adjusted diluted EPS $2.49 (6% growth vs. 2024); adjusted EBITDA margin of 22% (expanded significantly vs. prior years).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Axalta guided for a slower start to 2026 with Q1 revenue down mid-single digits (roughly a $50–$60 million consolidated decline) and Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $240–$250 million, followed by recovery beginning in Q2 and building into the back half; for the full year management expects revenue up low single digits (driven by positive price/mix of low-single digits, a low-single-digit FX tailwind and second‑half volume improvement), adjusted EBITDA of $1.14–$1.17 billion with margins above 22%, adjusted diluted EPS of $2.55–$2.70 (about 5% growth at the midpoint vs $2.49 in 2025), free cash flow greater than $500 million, CapEx of $180–$200 million, interest expense about $155 million (≈$20 million decline), net leverage below 2x by year‑end, mobility benefits including ~92 million assumed global light‑vehicle builds and ~flat North American Class‑8 builds (with Brazil wins contributing ≈$30 million), and an underlying raw‑material assumption roughly flat for the year.Axalta Coating Systems Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.12B | 5.28B | 5.18B | 4.88B | 4.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.66B | 1.80B | 1.62B | 1.42B | 1.43B |
| EBITDA | 1.03B | 981.00M | 844.00M | 700.00M | 791.20M |
| Net Income | 378.00M | 391.00M | 267.00M | 192.00M | 263.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.60B | 7.25B | 7.27B | 7.06B | 7.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 660.00M | 593.00M | 703.10M | 654.90M | 840.60M |
| Total Debt | 3.39B | 3.52B | 3.61B | 3.81B | 3.86B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.21B | 5.29B | 5.50B | 5.56B | 5.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.35B | 1.91B | 1.73B | 1.45B | 1.49B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 453.00M | 436.00M | 437.40M | 142.90M | 437.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 649.00M | 576.00M | 575.30M | 293.80M | 558.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -212.00M | -440.00M | -205.70M | -106.40M | -716.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -401.00M | -201.00M | -315.00M | -368.90M | -334.50M |
Axalta Coating Systems Technical Analysis
Negative
26.13
Price Trends
30.89
Negative
31.03
Negative
30.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.17
Negative
33.75
Neutral
18.80
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.21, below the 50-day MA of 30.89, and below the 200-day MA of 30.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.80 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AXTA.
Axalta Coating Systems Risk Analysis
Axalta Coating Systems disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axalta Coating Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axalta Coating Systems Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $8.51B | 15.45 | 8.09% | 5.33% | -3.33% | -19.59% | |
68 Neutral | $23.21B | 14.71 | 33.60% | 2.71% | -12.98% | -11.34% | |
67 Neutral | $77.79B | 31.08 | 58.53% | 0.98% | 0.96% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | $5.58B | 18.46 | 16.86% | ― | -1.83% | 40.64% | |
65 Neutral | $12.39B | 21.09 | 22.70% | 1.96% | 3.09% | 12.25% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
57 Neutral | $17.88B | -46.13 | -2.49% | 2.41% | -3.01% | 82.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems
26.13
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-8.28%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.