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Axalta Coating Systems
(NYSE:AXTA)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(16.67% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/05/26
The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and strong/free cash flow generation, which support continued deleveraging despite recent revenue declines. Technicals are constructive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, though momentum is somewhat extended. Valuation is moderate at ~18x earnings, while the earnings call supports the outlook via maintained guidance and margin discipline but with results trending toward the lower end and ongoing demand/macro uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Axalta’s materially improved cash generation (operating cash flow and FCF materially higher versus prior years) provides durable financial flexibility. Consistent FCF supports debt paydown, funds integration costs for the AkzoNobel deal, capital spending and cushions cyclical revenue weakness without eroding core operations.
Negative Factors
Top-line contraction and regional volume weakness
Sustained revenue declines and concentrated North American weakness reduce operating leverage and pricing power. If top-line pressure persists, it can erode fixed-cost absorption, slow deleveraging, constrain reinvestment, and make hitting multi-year targets and merger synergies harder to achieve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Axalta’s materially improved cash generation (operating cash flow and FCF materially higher versus prior years) provides durable financial flexibility. Consistent FCF supports debt paydown, funds integration costs for the AkzoNobel deal, capital spending and cushions cyclical revenue weakness without eroding core operations.
Read all positive factors
Axalta Coating Systems Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus and market opportunities.
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus and market opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAxalta Coating Systems (AXTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.0
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth-2.57%
EPS Growth-16.43%
CountryUS
Employees12,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.71
Shares Outstanding214,018,940
10 Day Avg. Volume2,889,696
30 Day Avg. Volume2,875,772
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-10.95
Price to Book (P/B)2.97
Price to Sales (P/S)1.36
P/FCF Ratio15.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.43Price Target Upside14.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.22B
Axalta Coating Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. is a leading global enterprise focused on the development, sale, and distribution of advanced, high-performance coating solutions. Its operations extend across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pa...
How the Company Makes Money
Axalta makes money primarily by selling coatings and related products to customers in two main segments: (1) Performance Coatings and (2) Mobility Coatings. In Performance Coatings, a major revenue stream comes from automotive refinish—selling pai...
Axalta Coating Systems Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational execution and several record achievements (cash generation, Mobility sales and margins, ongoing margin durability, procurement gains and progress on a high‑value merger) that outweighed modest top‑line softness, regional volume weakness (notably in North America), transaction costs and macro/raw material uncertainty. Management maintained full‑year guidance but flagged tracking toward the lower end of ranges and highlighted geopolitical/risk exposure.Positive Updates
Solid Financial Results Above Expectations
Net sales of $1.254 billion (≈$1.25B) with adjusted EBITDA of $259 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.56, with EPS coming in 12% above expectations and adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.6%.
Negative Updates
Top-line Pressure and Modest Revenue Decline
Total net sales declined ~1% year-over-year to $1.254 billion; Performance Coatings sales down 2% to $802M, Industrial down 2% to $304M, and Refinish down 3% to $498M driven by lower volumes and unfavorable price/mix in North America.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Financial Results Above Expectations
Net sales of $1.254 billion (≈$1.25B) with adjusted EBITDA of $259 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.56, with EPS coming in 12% above expectations and adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated they are maintaining prior full‑year guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS and free cash flow while noting they are tracking closer to the lower end of EBITDA and EPS ranges; for Q2 they expect net sales roughly flat, adjusted EBITDA of $280–$290 million and adjusted diluted EPS of about $0.65. They continue to expect full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin of ~22%, interest expense of ~$150 million (more than $25 million improvement year‑over‑year and ~27% lower than 2024), net leverage below 2.0x at year‑end (currently 2.3x), and to deploy most FCF to pay down the term loan; other assumptions include ~91 million global auto builds, ~274,000 NA Class 8 builds, mid‑single‑digit Refinish pricing in 2026, >50% of Mobility revenue indexed to raw‑material indices, and positive price/mix inflection beginning in Q2.Axalta Coating Systems Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.11B | 5.12B | 5.28B | 5.18B | 4.88B | 4.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.65B | 1.67B | 1.80B | 1.62B | 1.42B | 1.43B |
| EBITDA | 1.00B | 1.03B | 981.00M | 844.00M | 700.00M | 791.20M |
| Net Income | 369.00M | 378.00M | 391.00M | 267.00M | 192.00M | 263.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.56B | 7.60B | 7.25B | 7.27B | 7.06B | 7.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 608.00M | 660.00M | 593.00M | 703.10M | 654.90M | 840.60M |
| Total Debt | 3.15B | 3.39B | 3.52B | 3.61B | 3.81B | 3.86B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.09B | 5.21B | 5.29B | 5.50B | 5.56B | 5.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.42B | 2.35B | 1.91B | 1.73B | 1.45B | 1.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 488.00M | 453.00M | 436.00M | 437.40M | 142.90M | 437.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 691.00M | 649.00M | 576.00M | 575.30M | 293.80M | 558.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -221.00M | -212.00M | -440.00M | -205.70M | -106.40M | -716.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -453.00M | -401.00M | -201.00M | -315.00M | -368.90M | -334.50M |
Axalta Coating Systems Technical Analysis
Positive
30.00
Price Trends
30.55
Positive
30.33
Positive
30.31
Positive
Market Momentum
1.32
Negative
65.40
Neutral
72.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.20, below the 50-day MA of 30.55, and below the 200-day MA of 30.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXTA.
Axalta Coating Systems Risk Analysis
Axalta Coating Systems disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axalta Coating Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axalta Coating Systems Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $7.32B | 20.04 | 15.85% | ― | -2.57% | -16.43% | |
70 Outperform | $84.92B | 32.60 | 58.23% | 0.98% | 3.90% | -1.60% | |
65 Neutral | $7.66B | 19.15 | 6.77% | 5.33% | -7.41% | -56.10% | |
65 Neutral | $27.04B | 17.23 | 31.80% | 2.71% | -3.94% | 18.25% | |
64 Neutral | $14.19B | 21.28 | 21.80% | 1.96% | 5.68% | 3.81% | |
62 Neutral | $20.23B | 23.98 | 5.99% | 2.41% | -5.60% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems
34.22
3.72
12.20%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
66.98
-7.51
-10.08%
IFF
International Flavors & Fragrances
79.22
5.90
8.05%
PPG
PPG Industries
121.29
7.90
6.97%
RPM
RPM International
111.15
0.91
0.82%
SHW
Sherwin-Williams Company
344.32
-7.69
-2.19%
Axalta Coating Systems Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Axalta Shareholders Reelect Board and Approve Governance Items
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
At its 2026 Annual General Meeting held on June 3, 2026, Axalta Coating Systems’ shareholders elected nine directors to serve until the 2027 AGM, signaling continuity in the company’s board leadership and governance structures. Shareho...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Axalta, Akzo Nobel Refine Merger Structure and Governance
Positive
May 28, 2026
On November 18, 2025, Axalta Coating Systems agreed to merge with Akzo Nobel, under a structure where a newly formed AkzoNobel subsidiary in Bermuda would merge into Axalta, leaving Axalta as the surviving company. On May 27, 2026, the parties ame...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.