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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA)
:AXTA

Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) AI Stock Analysis

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Axalta Coating Systems

(NYSE:AXTA)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(27.32%Upside)
Axalta Coating Systems scores a 77.25, reflecting solid financial performance and operational efficiency. Despite challenges such as flat net sales and trade tensions, the company is well-positioned due to strong cash flow and strategic cost management. Valuation metrics are moderate, and technical indicators suggest stability. The overall sentiment from the earnings call is positive, contributing to the company's resilience against macroeconomic headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cost Management
Axalta is cutting costs, leading to a good earnings performance with both costs of goods sold, SG&A, and R&D values falling.
Earnings Performance
AXTA posted a solid beat despite FX headwinds and weakness in Auto OEM markets and refinish claims.
Market Opportunities
AXTA is benefitting from new wins, helping lift Auto OEM and industrial volumes over the next year.
Negative Factors
Demand Concerns
Incrementally negative commentary surrounding Refinish demand, with the industry now expected to decline more than previously anticipated, impacts the stock negatively.
Financial Outlook
A more cautious view on 2025 is taken, reducing EBITDA by ~2%, which is ~2% below consensus.
Market Valuation
The updated price target for Axalta reflects lower peer multiples, suggesting a less favorable valuation environment.

Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Axalta Coating Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAxalta Coating Systems Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes high-performance coatings systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through two segments, Performance Coatings and Transportation Coatings. The company offers water and solvent-borne products and systems to repair damaged vehicles for independent body shops, multi-shop operators, and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) dealership body shops. It also provides functional and decorative liquid, and powder coatings used in various industrial applications, including architectural cladding and fittings, automotive coatings, general industrial, job coaters, energy solutions, HVAC, appliances, industrial wood, coil, and oil and gas pipelines; and coatings for building materials, cabinet, wood and luxury vinyl flooring, and furniture market under the Voltatex, AquaEC, Durapon, Hydropon, UNRIVALED, Tufcote, and Ceranamel for liquid coatings; and Alesta, Nap-Gard, Abcite, Teodur, and Plascoat brands for powder coatings. In addition, the company develops and supplies electrocoat, primer, the basecoat, and clearcoat products for OEMs of light and commercial vehicles; and coatings systems for various commercial applications, including HDT, bus, and rail under the Imron, Imron Elite, Centari, Rival, Corlar epoxy undercoats, and AquaEC brands. It also sells its product under the Audurra, Challenger, Chemophan, ColorNet, Cromax, Cromax Mosaic, Durapon 70, Duxone, Harmonized Coating Technologies, Imron ExcelPro, Lutophen, Nason, Spies Hecker, Standox, Stollaquid, Syntopal, Syrox, Raptor, U-POL, and Vermeera brand names. The company was formerly known as Axalta Coating Systems Bermuda Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. in August 2014. Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyAxalta Coating Systems generates revenue primarily through the sale of its coating products and solutions. The company's revenue streams are largely derived from its Performance Coatings and Transportation Coatings segments. The Performance Coatings segment caters to the refinish and industrial end-markets, providing coatings for aftermarket automotive refinishing and various industrial applications. The Transportation Coatings segment focuses on supplying coatings for light and commercial vehicles, serving original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Axalta's revenue is bolstered by its strong customer relationships, extensive distribution network, and strategic partnerships with automotive OEMs and industrial companies, which ensure a steady demand for its high-quality coating solutions globally.

Axalta Coating Systems Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -12.65%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Axalta's Q1 2025 earnings call presented a mixed picture. While the company achieved record financial performance in terms of adjusted EBITDA and EPS and received significant innovation awards, it faced challenges such as flat net sales growth, macroeconomic pressures, and impacts from trade tensions. The Mobility Coatings segment showed strong performance, but the Refinish and Industrial segments experienced sales declines due to unfavorable market conditions.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA and EPS
Axalta achieved a record for adjusted EBITDA at $270 million, a 4% increase year-over-year, and adjusted diluted EPS grew by 16% to $0.59.
Innovation Recognition
Axalta received two Edison Awards and a Big Innovation Award for its products, Irus Scan and MyColor, marking the seventh consecutive year of receiving an Edison Award.
Operational Efficiency Improvements
Operating expenses decreased by 4% from last year due to savings from transformation initiatives, and EBITDA margin grew by 140 basis points.
Strong Performance in Mobility Coatings
Mobility Coatings segment achieved a 230 basis point margin expansion to 16.5%, driven by strong performance in Light Vehicle and price/cost stability.
Successful New Body Shop Additions
Axalta added approximately 900 net new body shops, outperforming the industry in Refinish.
Negative Updates
Flat Net Sales Growth
Net sales remained flat year-over-year on a constant currency basis due to volume declines, despite positive price-mix contributions.
Macroeconomic Challenges
Three of four end markets showed macro declines, with external demand pressures continuing to affect collision claims and repair activities.
Impact of Trade Tensions
Increased trade tensions and tariffs are expected to cost Axalta approximately $50 million annually, with $25 million impacting 2025.
Industrial Segment Decline
Industrial organic net sales decreased by 4% year-over-year, in line with broader negative trends in industrial production and housing.
Refinish Market Decline
Refinish organic net sales decreased by 1%, with the industry expected to be down low to mid-single digits due to insurance premium inflation and consumer confidence issues.
Company Guidance
During the Axalta Coating Systems Q1 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance that demonstrated resilience amidst challenging market conditions. Axalta reported a record adjusted EBITDA of $270 million, a 4% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin growing by 140 basis points. Adjusted diluted EPS also grew by 16% to $0.59. Despite a flat net sales performance, the company highlighted strong operational execution, including a significant decrease in operating expenses by 4% due to transformation initiatives, and a 230 basis point margin expansion in their Mobility segment. Axalta remains vigilant in managing trade tensions and tariffs, estimating a $50 million annual impact, with plans to mitigate this through various strategies. For the full year 2025, Axalta projects net sales between $5.3 billion and $5.375 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margins expected to expand to approximately 22%. The company continues to focus on cost reductions and market share expansion, while maintaining a robust balance sheet with a net leverage ratio of 2.5 times.

Axalta Coating Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Axalta Coating Systems exhibits strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and profitability metrics. The company maintains a robust gross profit margin of 33.03% and a net profit margin of 8.56%. Operational efficiency is demonstrated by EBIT and EBITDA margins of 14.51% and 19.92%, respectively. However, the balance sheet indicates a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.65, suggesting a higher reliance on debt, though cash flow generation remains strong.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Axalta Coating Systems has shown impressive revenue growth and improving profitability metrics. The TTM gross profit margin stands at 33.03% and the net profit margin at 8.56%, both of which are strong indicators of the company’s ability to manage costs effectively. The revenue growth rate over the past year has been healthy, despite a slight decline in the most recent period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins of 14.51% and 19.92% respectively, reflect solid operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.65, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) at 21.63% demonstrates strong profitability relative to shareholders' equity. However, the equity ratio of 28.02% suggests a higher reliance on debt, which could pose risks if interest rates rise or cash flows falter.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Axalta's cash flow generation capabilities are robust, as seen in the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.26 and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.91. Despite a slight decrease in free cash flow growth, the company maintains strong cash conversion, indicating efficient management of capital expenditures and operational activities.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
5.24B5.28B5.18B4.88B4.42B3.74B
Gross Profit
1.73B1.80B1.62B1.42B1.43B1.28B
EBIT
761.00M706.00M587.50M423.20M462.40M305.50M
EBITDA
1.04B1.05B831.00M754.50M828.60M598.30M
Net Income Common Stockholders
449.00M391.00M267.40M191.60M263.90M121.60M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
575.00M593.00M700.20M645.20M840.60M1.36B
Total Assets
7.41B7.25B7.27B7.06B7.22B7.16B
Total Debt
3.42B3.45B3.54B3.70B3.83B3.89B
Net Debt
2.84B2.85B2.84B3.06B2.99B2.53B
Total Liabilities
5.29B5.29B5.50B5.56B5.68B5.68B
Stockholders Equity
2.08B1.91B1.73B1.45B1.49B1.43B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
407.00M436.00M437.40M142.90M437.00M427.20M
Operating Cash Flow
568.00M576.00M575.30M293.80M558.60M509.30M
Investing Cash Flow
-465.00M-440.00M-205.70M-106.40M-716.00M-61.50M
Financing Cash Flow
-127.00M-201.00M-315.00M-368.90M-334.50M-130.90M

Axalta Coating Systems Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price29.06
Price Trends
50DMA
31.30
Negative
100DMA
33.19
Negative
200DMA
35.03
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.70
Positive
RSI
37.87
Neutral
STOCH
14.51
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.42, below the 50-day MA of 31.30, and below the 200-day MA of 35.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AXTA.

Axalta Coating Systems Risk Analysis

Axalta Coating Systems disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axalta Coating Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Axalta Coating Systems Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$6.43B14.2323.59%0.96%82.78%
SHSHW
69
Neutral
$83.07B31.3770.22%0.95%0.26%12.82%
EMEMN
68
Neutral
$8.63B9.5116.16%4.44%2.78%1.50%
FUFUL
66
Neutral
$2.93B27.256.35%1.74%0.99%-27.62%
PPPPG
58
Neutral
$24.57B18.3318.47%2.51%-7.67%-0.58%
51
Neutral
$1.99B-1.26-21.11%5.30%2.92%-30.46%
CCCC
49
Neutral
$1.65B53.454.66%3.18%-0.68%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems
29.06
-5.71
-16.42%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
74.25
-22.83
-23.52%
FUL
H.B. Fuller Company
54.57
-23.06
-29.71%
PPG
PPG Industries
108.67
-16.55
-13.22%
SHW
Sherwin-Williams Company
333.50
35.41
11.88%
CC
Chemours Company
10.73
-11.38
-51.47%

Axalta Coating Systems Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Axalta Coating Systems Holds Annual General Meeting
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Axalta Coating Systems held its Annual General Meeting where nine directors were elected for terms expiring at the 2026 AGM. Additionally, members approved PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor and endorsed the executive compensation plan for 2024, indicating continued shareholder support for the company’s leadership and financial strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXTA) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axalta Coating Systems stock, see the AXTA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.