Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.00B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -1.83%
• EPS Growth: 40.64%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,900
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.59
• Shares Outstanding: 213,373,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,412,927
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,143,549
• PEG Ratio: -10.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.25
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.57
• 1Y Price Target: $38.40
• Price Target Upside: 36.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.63
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.19B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▲(6.76% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/14/26

The score is primarily supported by improving margins, strong free-cash-flow generation, and ongoing deleveraging, reinforced by upbeat (but cautious) 2026 profitability and cash flow guidance. The main constraints are weak/uneven top-line trends (including an expected soft start to 2026), a still-material debt load, and a valuation that is only moderate given the growth backdrop.

Positive Factors

Margin Expansion & Record EBITDA

Sustained margin expansion and a record adjusted EBITDA reflect structural improvements in pricing, cost base and productivity. Higher operating leverage and tighter gross/EBIT margins enhance resilience to volume cyclicality and support reinvestment, deleveraging and funding of strategic initiatives over the medium term.

Strong Free Cash Flow Generation

Consistently positive and growing free cash flow provides durable capacity to pay down debt, fund targeted CapEx, and support integration spend for strategic deals. High FCF relative to net income indicates robust cash conversion that underpins financial flexibility despite cyclical revenue swings.

Deleveraging & Balance Sheet Improvement

Meaningful deleveraging and lower interest expense increase financial optionality. Reduced leverage improves covenant headroom and lowers refinancing risk, making the company better positioned to absorb demand troughs, pursue M&A synergies and sustain investment without immediate capital-market dependence.

Negative Factors

Weak and Uneven Top-line Trends

Persistent flat-to-declining revenue undermines long-term margin leverage and makes profitability gains more reliant on cost cuts and price rather than volume growth. Without clear, durable revenue drivers, recovery timing remains uncertain and performance depends on cyclical external factors.

Cyclical End-Market Exposure

Concentration in automotive, commercial vehicles and refinish ties results to cycle-sensitive production and repair activity. Large swings in OEM builds, commercial vehicle demand or insurance/used-car dynamics can materially depress volumes and cash flow, increasing revenue volatility across planning horizons.

Merger & Integration Execution Risks

A large merger with targeted synergies creates multi-year integration risk: execution, cultural alignment, and realization of cost/sales synergies are uncertain. Integration spend, retention payments and temporary disruptions can pressure near-term cash flow and distract management from organic growth priorities.

Axalta Coating Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes high-performance coatings systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through two segments, Performance Coatings and Transportation Coatings. The company offers water and solvent-borne products and systems to repair damaged vehicles for independent body shops, multi-shop operators, and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) dealership body shops. It also provides functional and decorative liquid, and powder coatings used in various industrial applications, including architectural cladding and fittings, automotive coatings, general industrial, job coaters, energy solutions, HVAC, appliances, industrial wood, coil, and oil and gas pipelines; and coatings for building materials, cabinet, wood and luxury vinyl flooring, and furniture market under the Voltatex, AquaEC, Durapon, Hydropon, UNRIVALED, Tufcote, and Ceranamel for liquid coatings; and Alesta, Nap-Gard, Abcite, Teodur, and Plascoat brands for powder coatings. In addition, the company develops and supplies electrocoat, primer, the basecoat, and clearcoat products for OEMs of light and commercial vehicles; and coatings systems for various commercial applications, including HDT, bus, and rail under the Imron, Imron Elite, Centari, Rival, Corlar epoxy undercoats, and AquaEC brands. It also sells its product under the Audurra, Challenger, Chemophan, ColorNet, Cromax, Cromax Mosaic, Durapon 70, Duxone, Harmonized Coating Technologies, Imron ExcelPro, Lutophen, Nason, Spies Hecker, Standox, Stollaquid, Syntopal, Syrox, Raptor, U-POL, and Vermeera brand names. The company was formerly known as Axalta Coating Systems Bermuda Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. in August 2014. Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Axalta makes money primarily by selling coatings and related products to customers in two main segments: (1) Performance Coatings and (2) Mobility Coatings. In Performance Coatings, a major revenue stream comes from automotive refinish—selling paint systems (e.g., primers, basecoats, clearcoats), accessories/ancillaries (e.g., thinners, activators), and associated color tools and services to auto body shops and repair networks; demand here is driven by collision repair and vehicle maintenance, and Axalta typically monetizes through ongoing consumable product purchases and distributor/body-shop channel relationships. Performance Coatings also includes industrial coatings sold to a variety of industrial customers for finishing and protective applications, generating revenue through contract and spot sales of coating products tailored to customer specifications. In Mobility Coatings, Axalta generates revenue by supplying OEM coatings to vehicle manufacturers and other mobility-related producers; these are often high-volume, specification-driven coatings supplied under customer qualification processes, with revenue tied to OEM production volumes and platform wins. Across segments, earnings are supported by pricing and mix (premium systems, higher-value products), long-term customer relationships, technical service and application support that help retain accounts, and a global manufacturing and distribution footprint that enables supply to large multinational customers. Specific partnership details: null.

Axalta Coating Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and cash generation are improving (EBIT and net margins expanded, free cash flow consistently positive and up in the latest year), and leverage is trending down. Offsetting this, revenue has been weak/uneven with a sharp decline indicated in the latest dataset, and the absolute debt load remains meaningful.

Income Statement

Revenue has been essentially flat over the last few years and declined in 2025 (annual revenue growth -94.9% per provided data point), but profitability improved meaningfully versus 2022–2023. Gross margin has generally held in the low-30% range (about 29%–34%), while operating profitability strengthened with EBIT margin improving from ~8.1% (2022) to ~14.4% (2025). Net margin also expanded from ~3.9% (2022) to ~7.4% (2024–2025). Key weakness is the lack of consistent top-line growth, with the latest year showing a sharp drop per the dataset.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains elevated but is improving: debt-to-equity decreased from ~2.62x (2022) and ~2.09x (2023) to ~1.36x (2025), driven by rising equity and modestly lower debt. Returns on equity are solid (mid-teens to ~20% range recently), indicating decent profitability on the capital base. The main risk is still the absolute debt load (about $3.2B in 2025), which can pressure flexibility if earnings weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength. Free cash flow is consistently positive and improved in 2025 (up ~33.6% per provided data), with operating cash flow also rising versus 2024. Free cash flow is a healthy share of net income (roughly ~70%–84% across the period), supporting debt reduction and reinvestment capacity. A key watch item is that operating cash flow relative to EBIT is under 0.5x in recent years (about ~0.40–0.47), suggesting working-capital or cash conversion dynamics that can limit cash build despite improved margins.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.12B	5.28B	5.18B	4.88B	4.42B
Gross Profit	1.66B	1.80B	1.62B	1.42B	1.43B
EBITDA	1.03B	981.00M	844.00M	700.00M	791.20M
Net Income	378.00M	391.00M	267.00M	192.00M	263.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.60B	7.25B	7.27B	7.06B	7.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	660.00M	593.00M	703.10M	654.90M	840.60M
Total Debt	3.39B	3.52B	3.61B	3.81B	3.86B
Total Liabilities	5.21B	5.29B	5.50B	5.56B	5.68B
Stockholders Equity	2.35B	1.91B	1.73B	1.45B	1.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	453.00M	436.00M	437.40M	142.90M	437.00M
Operating Cash Flow	649.00M	576.00M	575.30M	293.80M	558.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-212.00M	-440.00M	-205.70M	-106.40M	-716.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-401.00M	-201.00M	-315.00M	-368.90M	-334.50M

Axalta Coating Systems Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 28.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.37, below the 50-day MA of 32.68, and below the 200-day MA of 30.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.00 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AXTA.

Axalta Coating Systems Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EMN	68 Neutral	$8.13B	15.45	8.09%	5.33%	-3.33%	-19.59%
PPG	68 Neutral	$23.22B	14.71	33.60%	2.71%	-12.98%	-11.34%
SHW	67 Neutral	$79.46B	31.08	58.53%	0.98%	0.96%	1.96%
AXTA	65 Neutral	$6.00B	18.46	16.86%	―	-1.83%	40.64%
RPM	63 Neutral	$12.96B	21.09	22.70%	1.96%	3.09%	12.25%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
IFF	57 Neutral	$18.21B	-46.13	-2.49%	2.41%	-3.01%	82.30%

Axalta Coating Systems Corporate Events

Axalta Grants Executive Retention Bonuses Amid Akzo Merger

On November 18, 2025, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. entered into an all-stock, merger-of-equals agreement with Dutch-based Akzo Nobel N.V., and on December 15, 2025, Axalta’s board compensation committee approved cash retention bonuses for several senior executives in connection with this planned transaction. The bonuses, totaling more than $3.4 million for three named executive officers, will vest and be paid in full six months after the merger’s closing, with prorated or full payments available in cases of qualifying termination, death, or disability, signaling the company’s intent to secure leadership continuity and stability through the merger integration period and protect key talent for stakeholders during the transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXTA) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axalta Coating Systems stock, see the AXTA Stock Forecast page.