National Australia Bank (NABZY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $102.75B
• Dividend Yield: 3.92%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.49K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.53
• Revenue Growth: -6.80%
• EPS Growth: -3.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 39,976
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 6,135,194,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,359
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,489
• PEG Ratio: -3.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 81.93
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.89
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.61B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.50 ▲(25.18% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/30/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/30/25

The score is held back primarily by inconsistent earnings quality and especially volatile cash generation, plus balance-sheet caution from the 2025 equity step-down. These risks are partly offset by a positive technical trend, supportive dividend yield, and a generally constructive earnings-call read (growth in business lending/deposits and solid capital), despite higher impairments and cost headwinds.

Positive Factors

Capital Adequacy

A CET1 ratio of 11.7% above target provides a durable regulatory and loss-absorption buffer that supports ongoing lending and dividend capacity. Strong capital positioning reduces the need for immediate capital raises, enabling strategic execution and resilience through credit cycles over the medium term.

Stable Deposit Funding

Funding more lending with customer deposits (84% of lending) materially lowers reliance on wholesale markets and interest-rate repricing risk. Higher deposit funding supports margin stability, liquidity coverage and reduces refinancing risk, improving the bank’s structural funding profile over coming quarters.

Business Lending Momentum

A 5.8% half-on-half rise in business lending reflects commercial franchise strength and client share gains. Durable business lending growth diversifies revenue beyond retail, supports interest income and fee streams, and can generate stickier deposits through transactional relationships over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Volatile Cash Generation

Multi-year swings in operating and free cash flow undermine predictability of internal funding for capital returns and remediation costs. Large FCF volatility increases reliance on capital actions or external funding in stress, complicating planning and weakening confidence in sustainable cash generation.

Equity Decline / Balance-Sheet Resize

A roughly $20B reduction in equity and a resized asset base indicate meaningful balance-sheet adjustment and higher leverage (~4.6x). This reduces capital flexibility for growth or shock absorption, constrains strategic optionality (buybacks/acquisitions) and raises sensitivity to future impairments or credit stress.

Margin Compression and Impairments

Sharp margin compression and lower net income versus prior years point to weaker earnings quality. Combined with higher impairment charges, this means future profitability requires materially higher volumes to offset lower margins, leaving earnings more exposed to credit cycles and fee-pressure trends.

National Australia Bank Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Australia Bank Limited provides financial services to individuals and businesses in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Business and Private Banking, Personal Banking, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and New Zealand Banking segments. It operates through Business and Private Banking; Personal Banking; Corporate and Institutional Banking; New Zealand Banking; and Corporate Functions and Other segments. The company accepts transaction accounts, savings accounts, deposit accounts, and term deposits; and specialized accounts, such as foreign currency, business interest, statutory trust, community free saver, farm management, and project bank accounts, as well as farm management deposits. National Australia Bank Limited also provides home loans; personal loans; business loans; vehicle and equipment finance; and trade and invoice finance, as well as business overdrafts and bank guarantees. In addition, the company offers insurance products consisting of car, home and content, landlord, travel, caravan and trailer, life, and business insurance products; and pension, superannuation, self-managed super funds, cash management, and financial planning and advisory services. Further, it provides investment products; credit, debit, and business cards; payments and merchant services; travel services; online and internet banking services; small business services; international and foreign exchange solutions; and industry specific banking services. National Australia Bank Limited was founded in 1834 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

National Australia Bank generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and advances issued to personal, business, and institutional clients. The bank also earns income from fees and commissions related to its various banking services such as transaction accounts, credit cards, and wealth management advisory. Additionally, NAB benefits from trading and investment activities, including foreign exchange and securities trading. The bank has strategic partnerships and collaborations with fintech companies to enhance its digital services and expand its customer base, contributing to its overall earnings.

National Australia Bank Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income performance is profitable but less reliable year-to-year, with a sharp 2025 revenue step-up alongside meaningful net margin compression and lower net income versus 2023–2024. The balance sheet shows typical bank leverage but is constrained by a notable equity decline and resized asset base in 2025. Cash flow is the key weakness, with large multi-year operating/free-cash-flow swings despite a 2025 rebound.

Income Statement

Revenue shows a sharp step-up in 2025 (annual growth of 93.5%), but profitability also reset meaningfully: net margin fell to ~11.2% in 2025 versus ~33–38% in 2021–2024. Net income declined from 2023–2024 levels (about $7.4B–$7.0B) to ~$4.35B in 2025, suggesting weaker earnings quality despite the revenue surge. Overall, the income profile is profitable but less stable year-to-year than it initially appears.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high-leverage banking model, with debt-to-equity consistently elevated (~2.2x–4.8x) and still ~4.6x in 2025. Equity declined versus 2024 (from ~$61.5B to ~$41.7B) alongside a sizable reduction in assets, indicating a notable balance sheet resize. Returns on equity are steady but not exceptional (roughly ~10–12% across years), which supports the score, while the high leverage and equity step-down are key constraints.

Cash Flow

Cash flow is the weakest vertical due to major volatility: operating cash flow swung from strongly positive in 2020 and 2022 to deeply negative in 2023–2024, then back to positive in 2025. Free cash flow similarly moved from large positives (2020/2022) to large negatives (2023–2024) and recovered in 2025; however, 2025 free cash flow still contracted sharply versus the prior year (growth of about -110.5%). On the positive side, 2025 free cash flow covered most of net income (~0.83x), but the multi-year swings reduce confidence in consistency.

Breakdown	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	58.68B	20.62B	19.83B	18.45B	16.93B
Gross Profit	19.50B	20.62B	20.63B	18.45B	16.68B
EBITDA	10.00B	0.00	0.00	10.86B	10.11B
Net Income	6.58B	6.96B	7.41B	6.89B	6.36B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.11T	1.08T	1.06T	1.06T	925.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	167.24B	112.94B	120.20B	144.53B	109.21B
Total Debt	290.45B	296.68B	196.31B	486.90B	169.84B
Total Liabilities	1.05T	1.02T	997.58B	996.09B	863.19B
Stockholders Equity	63.09B	61.45B	61.15B	59.03B	62.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.92B	-37.22B	-27.89B	27.14B	-99.00M
Operating Cash Flow	8.29B	-35.78B	-17.54B	28.22B	759.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.56B	4.69B	-4.21B	-8.70B	-3.69B
Financing Cash Flow	2.65B	9.92B	-2.18B	6.01B	-22.05B

National Australia Bank Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NABZY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.46, below the 50-day MA of 15.17, and above the 200-day MA of 13.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NABZY.

National Australia Bank Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BBVA	72 Outperform	$119.70B	10.51	18.99%	3.27%	7.52%	10.40%
ING	71 Outperform	$75.45B	11.24	11.70%	4.14%	2.20%	-0.17%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NABZY	62 Neutral	$102.75B	23.42	11.51%	3.92%	-6.80%	-3.92%
BCS	60 Neutral	$77.90B	10.00	10.00%	1.71%	17.50%	49.25%
WFC	59 Neutral	$254.66B	13.19	11.85%	1.80%	-4.37%	26.41%
NWG	58 Neutral	$62.48B	8.90	15.42%	3.67%	7.43%	30.31%