Murphy USA (MUSA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.12B
• Dividend Yield: 0.57%
• Average Volume (3M): 326.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: -6.08%
• EPS Growth: -2.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 7.25
• Shares Outstanding: 18,734,447
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 220,914
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 326,664
• PEG Ratio: -3.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.51
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.38
• 1Y Price Target: $409.50
• Price Target Upside: 7.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 23.56
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $19.53B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $378.00 ▼(-0.77% Downside)

Murphy USA's overall stock score is driven by stable profitability and a positive outlook from the earnings call, which highlights strong merchandise growth and strategic initiatives. However, the score is tempered by technical indicators suggesting bearish momentum and financial concerns related to high leverage and declining cash flow.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiencies

Operational efficiencies reduce costs and enhance profitability, supporting long-term financial health and competitive positioning.

New Store Pipeline

Expansion through new stores indicates growth potential and increased market presence, driving future revenue and market share.

Leadership Transition

Leadership continuity with a new CEO ensures strategic stability and potential for refreshed vision, positively impacting long-term strategy.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns, posing long-term financial risks.

Declining Free Cash Flow

Declining free cash flow may hinder the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt, affecting long-term sustainability.

Decline in Fuel Volumes

Decreasing fuel volumes can impact revenue and profitability, challenging the company's core business model and market position.

Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy USA generates revenue primarily through the sale of gasoline, which accounts for a significant portion of its earnings. The company purchases fuel from various suppliers and sells it at its retail locations, benefiting from economies of scale. Additionally, Murphy USA earns money through convenience store sales, which include a diverse range of products such as food, beverages, and household items. The company's revenue model is supplemented by its strategic partnerships, particularly with Walmart, where many of its gas stations are co-located. This partnership not only drives customer traffic but also allows for promotional opportunities that enhance sales. Furthermore, Murphy USA may benefit from fuel margin fluctuations and regional pricing strategies that optimize profitability.

Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy USA shows stable profitability with consistent margins but faces challenges with declining revenue and high leverage. The high debt-to-equity ratio and declining free cash flow growth highlight potential financial risks. While the company effectively generates returns on equity, the reliance on debt and cash flow issues could impact future financial stability.

Income Statement

Murphy USA's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth at -0.66%, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. However, the company maintains a stable net profit margin of 2.52% and a gross profit margin of 10.14%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively healthy at 3.75% and 5.12%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability is stable, the declining revenue trend is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.01, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. Return on equity is strong at 64.63%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is low, reflecting a reliance on debt financing. The high leverage could impact financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a substantial decline in free cash flow growth at -73.81% TTM, raising concerns about cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.85, indicating moderate cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net income. Overall, cash flow stability is a concern, with declining free cash flow posing potential liquidity risks.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.35B	20.24B	21.53B	23.45B	17.36B	11.26B
Gross Profit	1.69B	2.31B	2.31B	2.40B	1.85B	1.44B
EBITDA	982.90M	996.70M	1.07B	1.19B	820.30M	722.70M
Net Income	471.20M	502.50M	556.80M	672.90M	396.90M	386.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.68B	4.54B	4.34B	4.12B	4.05B	2.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	42.80M	47.00M	124.90M	78.40M	256.40M	163.60M
Total Debt	2.78B	2.37B	2.27B	2.27B	2.24B	1.14B
Total Liabilities	4.13B	3.70B	3.51B	3.48B	3.24B	1.90B
Stockholders Equity	546.00M	840.10M	828.90M	640.70M	807.20M	784.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	367.20M	389.50M	448.40M	689.40M	462.70M	333.00M
Operating Cash Flow	817.10M	847.60M	784.00M	994.70M	737.40M	563.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-446.10M	-445.80M	-323.60M	-319.30M	-914.20M	-224.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-380.70M	-472.60M	-403.10M	-871.30M	269.60M	-456.10M

Murphy USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 380.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 380.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 368.88, above the 50-day MA of 378.23, and below the 200-day MA of 421.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUSA.

Murphy USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASY	70 Outperform	$20.70B	35.74	17.10%	0.38%	8.74%	13.37%
GPC	64 Neutral	$17.44B	21.74	17.05%	3.23%	3.26%	-25.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
ORLY	60 Neutral	$83.31B	34.19	―	―	6.19%	6.98%
MUSA	58 Neutral	$7.12B	15.54	68.48%	0.57%	-6.08%	-2.40%
AZO	58 Neutral	$63.35B	26.29	―	―	2.43%	-3.34%
AAP	41 Neutral	$3.00B	―	-23.85%	1.97%	-19.41%	-957.94%

Murphy USA Corporate Events

Murphy USA Inc. Reports Q3 2025 Earnings

Murphy USA Inc., a prominent retailer in the motor fuel and convenience merchandise sector, has released its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, highlighting key financial metrics and strategic developments. The company, headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas, operates a chain of retail fuel stations and convenience stores across the United States.

Murphy USA Announces Leadership Transition and Share Buyback

Murphy USA announced a leadership transition with Mindy K. West appointed as President and Chief Operating Officer, effective immediately, and set to become President and CEO on January 1, 2026, succeeding Andrew Clyde who will retire at the end of 2025. This transition is part of a strategic plan to ensure continuity in leadership and maintain the company’s growth trajectory. Additionally, the Board authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program and increased the quarterly dividend by 19%, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns and a robust capital allocation strategy. These actions are designed to enhance shareholder value and support the company’s long-term growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUSA) stock is a Hold with a $431.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy USA stock, see the MUSA Stock Forecast page.

Murphy USA Earnings Call: Resilience Amid Challenges

Murphy USA Inc’s latest earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting both resilience and challenges. The company showcased strong fuel margins and effective cost management as significant positives. However, it also faced hurdles in fuel volumes and merchandising contributions. Despite these challenges, the long-term growth pipeline and enhancements in the loyalty program offer a glimmer of optimism for the future.

Murphy USA Inc. Reports Resilient Q2 2025 Results

Murphy USA Inc., a prominent player in the retail motor fuel and convenience merchandise sector, has released its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, showcasing its resilience in a competitive market.