Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
NYSE:MUSA
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Murphy USA
(NYSE:MUSA)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$524.00
▲(3.51% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/02/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated leverage and weakening free cash flow trends, despite a TTM revenue rebound and steady (but thin) profitability. Technicals are soft with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD. Offsetting factors include moderate valuation and a cautiously positive outlook from reiterated EBITDA targets and operational savings, with recent corporate updates broadly supportive.
Positive Factors
Scale & Market Footprint
A national network of ~1,800 sites across 27 states creates durable scale benefits: purchasing leverage, distribution efficiencies, and broad customer reach. Scale supports merchandising rollouts, loyalty programs and faster payback on tuck-in acquisitions, underpinning long-term margin and revenue resilience.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Materially higher leverage and a shrinking equity base reduce financial flexibility and amplify downside risk. Elevated debt increases sensitivity to cyclical sales or margin shocks, limits the firm's capacity for opportunistic investment or rapid deleveraging, and raises refinancing and covenant exposure over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Market Footprint
A national network of ~1,800 sites across 27 states creates durable scale benefits: purchasing leverage, distribution efficiencies, and broad customer reach. Scale supports merchandising rollouts, loyalty programs and faster payback on tuck-in acquisitions, underpinning long-term margin and revenue resilience.
Read all positive factors
Murphy USA (MUSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.38B
Dividend Yield0.53%
Average Volume (3M)362.53K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.6
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth-6.08%
EPS Growth-2.40%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.67
Shares Outstanding18,535,347
10 Day Avg. Volume353,273
30 Day Avg. Volume362,529
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-45.00
Price to Book (P/B)12.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio20.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.60
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$440.57Price Target Upside-12.97% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)24.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.54B
Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoli...
How the Company Makes Money
Murphy USA primarily makes money from (1) retail fuel sales and (2) in-store convenience merchandise sales. Fuel revenue is generated by purchasing gasoline and diesel from wholesale suppliers and selling it to consumers at company-operated sites;...
Murphy USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Dec 31, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a cautiously positive strategic outlook: management laid out a credible multi-year growth plan anchored on scaling NTI openings (50+ per year), operational improvements (self-maintenance, shrink reduction), and targeted maintenance capex expected to yield $6M–$8M in savings. At the same time, several near-term headwinds — low/steady fuel margins (~$0.30/gal), 1%–3% same-store volume pressure, short-term EBITDA drag from concentrated new-store classes, weather-related maintenance costs, and lumpy category margins — temper upside in the near term. Management emphasized disciplined execution, cultural and organizational changes, and quantified operational savings, which together suggest that the positives modestly outweigh the negatives if macro fuel volatility normalizes.Positive Updates
Clear Long-Term EBITDA Goal and Growth Path
Company reiterated long-term EBITDA target (~$1.2B) and provided a multi-year growth path; 2026 guidance around ~$1.0B positions 2026 as an inflection point toward the $1.2B target if fuel volatility normalizes.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Volume Pressure
Management expects continued same-store volume pressure in the lower price environment, forecasting roughly 1%–3% volume declines and noting competitive intrusion varies by market.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Clear Long-Term EBITDA Goal and Growth Path
Company reiterated long-term EBITDA target (~$1.2B) and provided a multi-year growth path; 2026 guidance around ~$1.0B positions 2026 as an inflection point toward the $1.2B target if fuel volatility normalizes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 guidance of roughly $1.0 billion of EBITDA and a long‑term target of $1.2 billion by 2028, driven by a sustained new‑store program of 50+ new‑to‑industry (NTI) stores per year (each 50‑store cohort expected to contribute roughly $35–$40 million of EBITDA after a 3‑year ramp); near‑term cadence will include the 32 NTIs from 2024, 51 from 2025 and ~45–55 from this year. Management expects continued same‑store gallon pressure of about 1–3% and plans to protect share by putting $0.01–$0.02 per gallon “on the street,” with fuel margins modeled around $0.30/gal (c.30.5% CPG) in a low‑volatility base case and PS&W and RIN dynamics acknowledged as quarter‑variable. They will step up maintenance capex proactively (replacing dispensers, HVAC, etc.) to avoid an estimated $6–$8 million of maintenance expense, target per‑store OpEx growth near ~4% (OpEx rose 3.3% last year and management expects to remain below a prior 5% assumption), and noted discrete savings from initiatives (self‑maintenance ~ $2M saved; shrink reductions > $4M). Other modeling notes: SNAP changes are a modest headwind (<$5M and <2% of sales exposure), winter‑storm timing creates 1Q/near‑term noise, and RIN costs are largely embedded in fuel prices.Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 19.38B | 20.24B | 21.53B | 23.45B | 17.36B |
| Gross Profit | 970.70M | 2.31B | 2.31B | 2.40B | 1.85B |
| EBITDA | 1.00B | 996.70M | 1.07B | 1.19B | 820.30M |
| Net Income | 470.60M | 502.50M | 556.80M | 672.90M | 396.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.73B | 4.54B | 4.34B | 4.12B | 4.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.90M | 47.00M | 124.90M | 78.40M | 256.40M |
| Total Debt | 3.25B | 2.37B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.10B | 3.70B | 3.51B | 3.48B | 3.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 623.50M | 840.10M | 828.90M | 640.70M | 807.20M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 374.30M | 389.50M | 448.40M | 689.40M | 462.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 813.90M | 847.60M | 784.00M | 994.70M | 737.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -436.00M | -445.80M | -323.60M | -319.30M | -914.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -396.00M | -472.60M | -403.10M | -871.30M | 269.60M |
Murphy USA Technical Analysis
Positive
506.24
Price Trends
425.23
Positive
408.81
Positive
400.52
Positive
Market Momentum
21.20
Negative
75.04
Negative
90.20
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 506.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 452.65, above the 50-day MA of 425.23, and above the 200-day MA of 400.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 21.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.04 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUSA.
Murphy USA Risk Analysis
Murphy USA disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Murphy USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Murphy USA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $26.40B | 43.17 | 17.55% | 0.39% | 13.33% | 13.33% | |
63 Neutral | $14.45B | 259.07 | 1.44% | 3.33% | 3.26% | -25.41% | |
62 Neutral | $75.56B | 30.60 | -239.04% | ― | 6.19% | 6.98% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $9.38B | 16.55 | 74.25% | 0.53% | -6.08% | -2.40% | |
55 Neutral | $54.65B | 33.35 | -72.31% | ― | 3.81% | -4.26% | |
50 Neutral | $3.10B | 52.94 | 2.00% | 2.53% | -19.41% | -957.94% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MUSA
Murphy USA
506.24
39.18
8.39%
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Murphy USA Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Murphy USA Highlights Growth Strategy at Investor Conference
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Murphy USA presented to institutional investors at the Raymond James 2026 conference, showcasing its scale, strategy, and performance in the U.S. convenience and fuel retail market. Management highlighted that the chain now excee...
Executive/Board Changes
Murphy USA Sets New CEO Pay, Executive Retention Grants
Neutral
Jan 16, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Murphy USA’s Executive Compensation Committee approved a CEO compensation package for Mindy K. West, effective January 1, 2026, providing a $1,000,000 annual base salary, a target annual cash incentive equal to 150% of b...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.