Murphy USA (MUSA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.95B
• Dividend Yield: 0.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 363.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.30
• Revenue Growth: -6.43%
• EPS Growth: -0.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 2.65
• Shares Outstanding: 19,761,644
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 308,657
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 363,312
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 10.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.18
• 1Y Price Target: $511.50
• Price Target Upside: 27.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $462.00 ▲(14.84%Upside)

Murphy USA's overall stock score of 64.6 is primarily driven by its solid financial performance and improvements noted during the earnings call. However, the score is moderated by weak technical indicators and valuation concerns, alongside challenges noted in same-store sales.

Positive Factors

Competitive Advantage

Murphy USA's Every Day Low Price (EDLP) model acts as a self-reinforcing flywheel to drive long-term margin expansion, free cash flow generation, and greater market share.

Market Share Growth

MUSA continues to take fuel market share and expects to ultimately reach approximately 5 billion gallons.

Strategic Initiatives

MUSA is well-positioned for continued growth, leveraging multiple strategic initiatives, including store expansions, targeted promotions, and operational efficiencies.

Negative Factors

Core Business Challenges

The company’s recent results and forward commentary illustrated some concerns about the pathway for the core business to grow EBITDA.

Earnings Performance

Q1 earnings per share of $2.63 fell 34% below the consensus of $3.96.

Sales Decline

Same-store merchandise sales decreased, driven by a decline in both nicotine and non-nicotine sales, which were below estimates.

Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy USA generates revenue primarily through the sale of motor fuel and convenience merchandise. The company leverages its strategic locations, often adjacent to Walmart stores, to attract high volumes of customer traffic, which leads to significant fuel sales. Additionally, Murphy USA offers a variety of convenience store products, including snacks, beverages, tobacco products, and other general merchandise, which contribute to its revenue streams. The company also benefits from partnerships with major oil companies for fuel supply, enabling it to offer competitive pricing. Ancillary services such as car washes at select locations also add to the company's earnings.

Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy USA shows robust financial health with strong profitability and cash flow generation. Despite high leverage indicated by a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 3.45, operational efficiency and strong shareholder returns bolster its financial standing.

Income Statement

Murphy USA has shown a stable financial performance with a Gross Profit Margin of 11.61% and a Net Profit Margin of 2.46% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company has maintained a consistent EBIT Margin of 3.64% and EBITDA Margin of 4.95%. While experiencing a slight decline in revenue growth compared to previous years, the company remains profitable, indicating strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's Debt-to-Equity Ratio stands at 3.45, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. However, Murphy USA has a reasonable Equity Ratio of 15.98%, demonstrating a solid capital structure. Return on Equity (ROE) is 68.05%, showcasing strong profitability relative to shareholder investments.

Cash Flow

Murphy USA's cash flow performance is commendable, with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.72 and a Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.76. Although Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, the company maintains healthy cash flow metrics, ensuring adequate liquidity to support operations and investments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
19.93B	20.24B	21.53B	23.45B	17.36B	11.26B
	Gross Profit
2.31B	2.31B	2.31B	2.40B	1.85B	1.44B
	EBIT
725.70M	742.90M	826.00M	968.40M	604.00M	559.00M
	EBITDA
986.70M	996.70M	1.07B	1.19B	820.30M	722.70M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
489.70M	502.50M	556.80M	672.90M	396.90M	386.10M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
49.40M	47.00M	124.90M	78.40M	256.40M	163.60M
	Total Assets
4.50B	4.54B	4.34B	4.12B	4.05B	2.69B
	Total Debt
2.48B	2.37B	2.27B	2.27B	2.24B	1.14B
	Net Debt
2.43B	2.32B	2.15B	2.21B	1.99B	981.30M
	Total Liabilities
3.78B	3.70B	3.51B	3.48B	3.24B	1.90B
	Stockholders Equity
719.60M	840.10M	828.90M	640.70M	807.20M	784.10M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
370.40M	389.50M	448.40M	689.40M	462.70M	333.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
840.10M	847.60M	784.00M	994.70M	737.40M	563.70M
	Investing Cash Flow
-458.60M	-445.80M	-323.60M	-319.30M	-914.20M	-224.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
-388.80M	-472.60M	-403.10M	-871.30M	269.60M	-456.10M

Murphy USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 402.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 402.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 430.63, below the 50-day MA of 462.96, and below the 200-day MA of 486.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -14.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MUSA.

Murphy USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CHWY	75 Outperform	$17.10B	46.67	76.24%	―	7.64%	369.79%
ASO	75 Outperform	$2.90B	8.02	20.14%	1.19%	-3.57%	-17.43%
CASY	74 Outperform	$18.79B	34.57	16.75%	0.40%	6.56%	14.06%
MUSA	65 Neutral	$7.95B	16.96	65.24%	0.50%	-6.43%	-0.81%
ARKO	63 Neutral	$479.75M	176.89	2.45%	2.85%	-9.67%	-89.84%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.82B	11.05	2.80%	4.32%	2.67%	-24.92%
AAP	52 Neutral	$3.04B	59.62	-23.77%	2.06%	-16.55%	-941.57%

Murphy USA Corporate Events

Murphy USA Appoints David C. Haley to Board

On May 1, 2025, Murphy USA announced the appointment of David C. Haley to its Board of Directors, where he will serve on the Nominating and Governance Committee and the Audit Committee as a Class II Director until 2027. Additionally, Murphy USA declared a 2% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, setting it at $0.50 per share, payable on June 2, 2025, to stockholders of record as of May 12, 2025.