Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
NYSE:MUSA
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Murphy USA
(NYSE:MUSA)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$623.00
▲(26.85% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by a mixed financial profile: resilient earnings/free cash flow but meaningfully constrained by high leverage and recent margin/cash-conversion pressure. Technicals are strong and supportive, while valuation is reasonable but not notably cheap and income yield is minimal; earnings-call commentary was broadly positive but highlighted ongoing fuel-market uncertainty and competitive/volume risks.
Positive Factors
Consistent free cash flow
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for new-store buildouts, selective capex, and share repurchases. Re-acceleration in TTM free cash flow improves optionality to allocate capital or shore up leverage without relying on external financing.
Negative Factors
High leverage and small equity base
Elevated debt versus a modest equity base constrains financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to operating shocks. High leverage limits ability to absorb margin volatility, restricts strategic optionality, and raises refinancing and covenant risks during adverse fuel cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent free cash flow
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for new-store buildouts, selective capex, and share repurchases. Re-acceleration in TTM free cash flow improves optionality to allocate capital or shore up leverage without relying on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Murphy USA (MUSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.67B
Dividend Yield0.53%
Average Volume (3M)347.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.8
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth-1.25%
EPS Growth21.59%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)29.25
Shares Outstanding18,500,160
10 Day Avg. Volume358,999
30 Day Avg. Volume347,056
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-45.00
Price to Book (P/B)12.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio20.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$523.67Price Target Upside6.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)28.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.38B
Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoli...
How the Company Makes Money
Murphy USA primarily makes money from (1) retail fuel sales and (2) in-store convenience merchandise sales. Fuel revenue is generated by purchasing gasoline and diesel from wholesale suppliers and selling it to consumers at company-operated sites;...
Murphy USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented several material operational and financial positives: strong fuel-supply-driven results in the quarter, healthy inside-store sales and margin expansion, meaningful loyalty and transaction growth, and disciplined cost control and capital allocation. Offsetting risks include continued fuel-margin volatility (limiting the ability to give updated guidance), near-term gallon/volume pressure (weather headwinds and slow trade-down timing), regional competitive challenges—particularly at QuickChek in the Northeast and in Florida/Colorado—and promotional lapping risk later in the year. On balance, management emphasized execution, controlled OpEx, and a clear growth plan while acknowledging uncertainty in fuel markets.Positive Updates
Strong Fuel Supply / Inventory Valuation Contribution
Q1 fuel supply results were strong with an inventory revaluation benefit referenced at approximately $0.069 per gallon; the core fuel business generated roughly $0.025 per gallon excluding those higher-price impacts. Management reported retail margins in April in the low $0.30s per gallon and said product supply & wholesale (PS&W) results are trending above normal amid market volatility.
Negative Updates
Fuel Volumes and Gallon Performance Lagging
Q1 gasoline volumes were weaker than expected; management cited weather-related closures that created an estimated headwind of roughly 2% (potentially slightly higher) and noted that consumer trade-down effects take time to materialize. April volumes were roughly flat year-over-year, indicating recovery but not yet a pronounced uplift.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Fuel Supply / Inventory Valuation Contribution
Q1 fuel supply results were strong with an inventory revaluation benefit referenced at approximately $0.069 per gallon; the core fuel business generated roughly $0.025 per gallon excluding those higher-price impacts. Management reported retail margins in April in the low $0.30s per gallon and said product supply & wholesale (PS&W) results are trending above normal amid market volatility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Murphy USA said it will largely stick with prior, conservative guidance but gave month-level color: Q1 included ~$0.069/gal of inventory revaluation/RIN benefit while the core fuel supply business ran about $0.025/gal (ex‑inventory effects); for April management expects retail margins in the low $0.30s/gal (management had earlier cited $0.35–$0.40/gal) with product‑supply/wholesale results trending above normal, and noted volumes were roughly flat year‑over‑year in April after a ~2% weather headwind in the quarter; capital priorities remain 45–55 new sites for the year, ratable share repurchases and selective capex for new‑to‑industry stores, roughly half of OpEx growth will reflect new stores, same‑store trends should be at least in line with peers, and loyalty momentum was strong (≈600k new Drive Rewards signups, active members +8.5% YoY, transactions +12%).Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.68B | 19.38B | 20.24B | 21.53B | 23.45B | 17.36B |
| Gross Profit | 1.08B | 970.70M | 2.31B | 2.31B | 2.40B | 1.85B |
| EBITDA | 1.14B | 1.02B | 996.70M | 1.07B | 1.19B | 820.30M |
| Net Income | 553.70M | 470.60M | 502.50M | 556.80M | 672.90M | 396.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.87B | 4.73B | 4.54B | 4.34B | 4.12B | 4.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 118.60M | 28.90M | 47.00M | 124.90M | 78.40M | 256.40M |
| Total Debt | 2.69B | 3.25B | 2.37B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.21B | 4.10B | 3.70B | 3.51B | 3.48B | 3.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 658.70M | 623.50M | 840.10M | 828.90M | 640.70M | 807.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 555.30M | 374.30M | 389.50M | 448.40M | 689.40M | 462.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.01B | 813.90M | 847.60M | 784.00M | 994.70M | 737.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -446.80M | -436.00M | -445.80M | -323.60M | -319.30M | -914.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -489.40M | -396.00M | -472.60M | -403.10M | -871.30M | 269.60M |
Murphy USA Technical Analysis
Neutral
491.13
Price Trends
444.86
Positive
428.03
Positive
407.14
Positive
Market Momentum
14.53
Positive
53.53
Neutral
48.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 491.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 494.64, above the 50-day MA of 444.86, and above the 200-day MA of 407.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 14.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MUSA.
Murphy USA Risk Analysis
Murphy USA disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Murphy USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Murphy USA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $31.77B | 43.17 | 17.55% | 0.39% | 9.22% | 21.39% | |
66 Neutral | $77.78B | 32.03 | -263.22% | ― | 7.92% | 12.42% | |
62 Neutral | $10.67B | 16.78 | 89.51% | 0.53% | -1.25% | 21.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $57.61B | 34.26 | -72.31% | ― | 5.02% | -4.34% | |
50 Neutral | $3.39B | 97.23 | 2.00% | 2.53% | -15.94% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $14.41B | 19.30 | 1.31% | 3.33% | 4.79% | -92.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MUSA
Murphy USA
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140.47
32.12%
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Murphy USA Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Murphy USA Names Donald Smith as Permanent CFO
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 3, 2026, Murphy USA Inc. appointed long-time executive Donald R. Smith, Jr., previously Interim Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer Treasurer, as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasur...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Murphy USA Highlights Growth Strategy at Investor Conference
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Murphy USA presented to institutional investors at the Raymond James 2026 conference, showcasing its scale, strategy, and performance in the U.S. convenience and fuel retail market. Management highlighted that the chain now excee...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.