Murphy USA (MUSA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.57B
• Dividend Yield: 0.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 296.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: -7.95%
• EPS Growth: -2.60%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 6.75
• Shares Outstanding: 19,292,355
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 335,307
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 296,480
• PEG Ratio: -3.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.51
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.00
• 1Y Price Target: $393.75
• Price Target Upside: -0.68% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $431.00 ▲(8.71% Upside)

Murphy USA's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, tempered by technical analysis indicating potential bearish momentum and valuation concerns. The company's ability to manage leverage and sustain growth will be crucial moving forward.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiencies

Operational efficiencies reduce costs and enhance profitability, allowing Murphy USA to maintain competitive pricing and improve margins, which is crucial for long-term sustainability.

New Store Pipeline

Expanding the store network increases market presence and potential revenue streams, supporting long-term growth and competitive positioning in the retail fuel market.

Improved Retail Fuel Margins

Improved fuel margins enhance profitability, providing a buffer against volume declines and enabling reinvestment into growth initiatives, crucial for sustained financial health.

Negative Factors

Decline in Fuel Volumes

Declining fuel volumes can impact revenue and profitability, posing a challenge to maintaining growth and market share in a competitive industry.

Merchandise Contribution Challenges

Challenges in merchandise contribution, especially in key categories, can hinder overall revenue growth and affect the company's ability to diversify income streams.

QuickChek Performance Under Pressure

Performance issues in QuickChek stores due to competitive pressures and cost inflation can strain profitability and limit growth potential in the non-fuel segment.

Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy USA Inc. is a leading retailer of gasoline and convenience store merchandise in the United States. The company primarily operates its business through its network of retail gas stations, offering a range of fuel products, including gasoline and diesel, alongside convenience store items such as snacks, beverages, and other daily necessities. Murphy USA's operations are concentrated in the southern and midwestern regions of the U.S., where it focuses on delivering value to customers through competitive pricing and a customer-friendly shopping experience.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy USA generates revenue primarily through the sale of fuel and convenience store merchandise. The company's key revenue streams include retail gasoline sales, which account for the largest portion of its earnings, and in-store sales from convenience items. The company has established partnerships with various fuel suppliers to ensure a steady supply of gasoline at competitive prices, allowing it to maintain attractive pricing for customers. Additionally, Murphy USA benefits from its loyalty programs and credit card partnerships, which encourage repeat business and drive sales. The company's strategic location of its gas stations, often near major highways and densely populated areas, also contributes to higher foot traffic and increased sales volume, further solidifying its revenue model.

Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy USA shows strong profitability and cash generation, with stable profit margins and efficient operational management. However, challenges include declining revenue growth and a reliance on debt financing, which poses financial risks if leverage becomes unsustainable.

Income Statement

Murphy USA demonstrates solid profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of around 10% across the periods and a healthy net profit margin of approximately 2-3%. However, the company faces challenges in maintaining revenue growth, as evidenced by a negative revenue growth rate of -3.77% from 2024 to the TTM period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a reliance on debt financing, which has increased over time. Although the return on equity (ROE) is strong at around 75.92% in the TTM period, the equity ratio is low, at approximately 13.98%, pointing to potential financial risk if leverage becomes unsustainable.

Cash Flow

Murphy USA maintains a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio of about 1.26 in the TTM period, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate is concerning, with a significant decline from 2024 to the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, reflecting a need to manage capital expenditures more effectively.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.48B	20.24B	21.53B	23.45B	17.36B	11.26B
Gross Profit	1.97B	2.31B	2.31B	2.40B	1.85B	1.44B
EBITDA	996.40M	996.70M	1.07B	1.19B	820.30M	722.70M
Net Income	490.50M	502.50M	556.80M	672.90M	396.90M	386.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.62B	4.54B	4.34B	4.12B	4.05B	2.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.10M	47.00M	124.90M	78.40M	256.40M	163.60M
Total Debt	2.59B	2.37B	2.27B	2.27B	2.24B	1.14B
Total Liabilities	3.98B	3.70B	3.51B	3.48B	3.24B	1.90B
Stockholders Equity	646.10M	840.10M	828.90M	640.70M	807.20M	784.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	364.70M	389.50M	448.40M	689.40M	462.70M	333.00M
Operating Cash Flow	834.40M	847.60M	784.00M	994.70M	737.40M	563.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-460.70M	-445.80M	-323.60M	-319.30M	-914.20M	-224.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-399.40M	-472.60M	-403.10M	-871.30M	269.60M	-456.10M

Murphy USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 396.45
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 396.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 381.61, above the 50-day MA of 383.88, and below the 200-day MA of 432.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.46 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUSA.

Murphy USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASY	―	$19.67B	34.18	17.10%	0.39%	8.74%	13.37%
MUSA	―	$7.57B	16.41	67.31%	0.50%	-7.95%	-2.60%
GPC	―	$17.97B	22.68	17.05%	3.11%	3.26%	-25.41%
Sector *	―	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
ORLY	―	$80.20B	32.76	―	―	6.19%	6.98%
AZO	―	$61.69B	25.60	―	―	2.43%	-3.34%
AAP	―	$3.42B	―	-24.78%	1.75%	-22.50%	-35219.23%

Murphy USA Corporate Events

Murphy USA Earnings Call: Resilience Amid Challenges

Murphy USA Inc’s latest earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting both resilience and challenges. The company showcased strong fuel margins and effective cost management as significant positives. However, it also faced hurdles in fuel volumes and merchandising contributions. Despite these challenges, the long-term growth pipeline and enhancements in the loyalty program offer a glimmer of optimism for the future.

Murphy USA Inc. Reports Resilient Q2 2025 Results

Murphy USA Inc., a prominent player in the retail motor fuel and convenience merchandise sector, has released its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, showcasing its resilience in a competitive market.