Murphy USA (MUSA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.11B
• Dividend Yield: 0.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 295.93K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: -7.95%
• EPS Growth: -2.60%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 7.36
• Shares Outstanding: 19,761,644
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 252,832
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 295,926
• PEG Ratio: 9.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.91
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.50
• 1Y Price Target: $430.86
• Price Target Upside: 18.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $379.00 ▲(4.56%Upside)

The overall stock score for Murphy USA highlights key challenges in technical performance and growth prospects. While the company shows strong profitability and effective cost management, bearish technical indicators and pressures on revenue growth and merchandising weigh heavily on the score. Positive corporate governance developments slightly mitigate these concerns.

Positive Factors

Business Model

Murphy's has an advantaged business model within the U.S. C-store, and the company and stock have been strong performers, up significantly over the last five years.

Competitive Advantage

The company owns access to the Colonial pipeline, creating a significant competitive advantage that is not easily replicated.

Growth Potential

MUSA is well-positioned for continued growth, leveraging multiple strategic initiatives, including store expansions, targeted promotions, and operational efficiencies.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

Q1 earnings per share of $2.63 fell 34% below the consensus of $3.96.

Market Pressure

There is concern about multiple pressure in the near-term with shares still trading at a high multiple and the need for consistent year-over-year EPS growth.

Sales Decline

Same-store merchandise sales decreased, driven by a decline in both nicotine and non-nicotine sales, which were below estimates.

Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy USA generates revenue primarily through the sale of motor fuel and convenience merchandise. The company leverages its strategic locations, often adjacent to Walmart stores, to attract high volumes of customer traffic, which leads to significant fuel sales. Additionally, Murphy USA offers a variety of convenience store products, including snacks, beverages, tobacco products, and other general merchandise, which contribute to its revenue streams. The company also benefits from partnerships with major oil companies for fuel supply, enabling it to offer competitive pricing. Ancillary services such as car washes at select locations also add to the company's earnings.

Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy USA shows robust financial health with strong profitability and cash flow generation. Despite high leverage indicated by a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 3.45, the company maintains solid profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 2.46% and Return on Equity of 68.05%. The company's operational efficiency and cash flow metrics are commendable, though revenue growth has slightly declined.

Income Statement

Murphy USA has shown a stable financial performance with a Gross Profit Margin of 11.61% and a Net Profit Margin of 2.46% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company has maintained a consistent EBIT Margin of 3.64% and EBITDA Margin of 4.95%. While experiencing a slight decline in revenue growth compared to previous years, the company remains profitable, indicating strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's Debt-to-Equity Ratio stands at 3.45, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. However, Murphy USA has a reasonable Equity Ratio of 15.98%, demonstrating a solid capital structure. Return on Equity (ROE) is 68.05%, showcasing strong profitability relative to shareholder investments.

Cash Flow

Murphy USA's cash flow performance is commendable, with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.72 and a Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.76. Although Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, the company maintains healthy cash flow metrics, ensuring adequate liquidity to support operations and investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.48B	20.24B	21.53B	23.45B	17.36B	11.26B
Gross Profit	1.97B	2.31B	2.31B	2.40B	1.85B	1.44B
EBITDA	889.20M	996.70M	1.07B	1.19B	820.30M	722.70M
Net Income	490.50M	502.50M	556.80M	672.90M	396.90M	386.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.62B	4.54B	4.34B	4.12B	4.05B	2.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.10M	47.00M	124.90M	78.40M	256.40M	163.60M
Total Debt	2.59B	2.37B	2.27B	2.27B	2.24B	1.14B
Total Liabilities	3.98B	3.70B	3.51B	3.48B	3.24B	1.90B
Stockholders Equity	646.10M	840.10M	828.90M	640.70M	807.20M	784.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	264.40M	389.50M	448.40M	689.40M	462.70M	333.00M
Operating Cash Flow	616.10M	847.60M	784.00M	994.70M	737.40M	563.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-460.70M	-445.80M	-323.60M	-319.30M	-914.20M	-224.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-399.40M	-472.60M	-403.10M	-871.30M	269.60M	-456.10M

Murphy USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 362.48
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 362.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 419.65, below the 50-day MA of 419.79, and below the 200-day MA of 472.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.92 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.77 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MUSA.

Murphy USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASY	77 Outperform	$19.41B	35.66	16.75%	0.39%	7.25%	9.12%
CHWY	74 Outperform	$15.04B	40.27	76.24%	―	7.64%	369.79%
ASO	72 Outperform	$3.58B	9.92	20.14%	0.92%	-3.57%	-17.43%
ARKO	64 Neutral	$508.24M	187.39	2.45%	2.86%	-9.67%	-89.84%
Sector *	62 Neutral	C$5.20B	8.26	20.23%	3.77%	3.13%	8.63%
MUSA	59 Neutral	$8.11B	17.30	67.31%	0.53%	-7.95%	-2.60%
AAP	47 Neutral	$3.40B	59.62	-23.77%	1.88%	-16.55%	-941.57%

Murphy USA Corporate Events

Murphy USA Releases Q2 Operational Update

On June 16, 2025, Murphy USA released an operational update ahead of its participation in two investor conferences. The update highlighted second quarter-to-date metrics, revealing a slight increase in total fuel volumes and merchandise sales, despite a decline in same-store sales for nicotine and non-nicotine products. The company also reported a rise in operating expenses and announced the construction of 22 new stores and 18 rebuilds, indicating ongoing expansion efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUSA) stock is a Hold with a $540.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy USA stock, see the MUSA Stock Forecast page.

Murphy USA Appoints David C. Haley to Board

On May 1, 2025, Murphy USA announced the appointment of David C. Haley to its Board of Directors, where he will serve on the Nominating and Governance Committee and the Audit Committee as a Class II Director until 2027. Additionally, Murphy USA declared a 2% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, setting it at $0.50 per share, payable on June 2, 2025, to stockholders of record as of May 12, 2025.