Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
NYSE:MUSA
Want to see MUSA full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Murphy USA
(NYSE:MUSA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$538.00
▲(9.54% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/07/26
The score is held back primarily by financial quality—especially very high leverage and weaker recent free cash flow—despite stable profitability. Offsetting that, the stock shows strong technical momentum and the earnings call reinforced a credible multi-year growth plan and maintained EBITDA guidance, while valuation is only moderately supportive given a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Multi-year store growth plan
A sustained program to open 50+ new-to-industry stores annually creates a multi-year, compounding EBITDA tailwind as cohorts mature. If execution holds, the model provides predictable incremental EBITDA per 50-store class after a 3-year ramp, supporting lasting scale-driven earnings growth.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Elevated leverage materially reduces financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to demand or margin shocks. With equity depressed, returns are levered and sensitive to earnings swings; high debt limits the company's ability to fund growth, opportunistic M&A, or weather fuel-cost volatility without costly refinancing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-year store growth plan
A sustained program to open 50+ new-to-industry stores annually creates a multi-year, compounding EBITDA tailwind as cohorts mature. If execution holds, the model provides predictable incremental EBITDA per 50-store class after a 3-year ramp, supporting lasting scale-driven earnings growth.
Read all positive factors
Murphy USA (MUSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.26B
Dividend Yield0.53%
Average Volume (3M)352.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.6
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth-6.08%
EPS Growth-2.40%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.67
Shares Outstanding18,500,160
10 Day Avg. Volume313,482
30 Day Avg. Volume352,548
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-45.00
Price to Book (P/B)12.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio20.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$456.29Price Target Upside-7.09% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)25.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.00B
Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoli...
How the Company Makes Money
Murphy USA primarily makes money from (1) retail fuel sales and (2) in-store convenience merchandise sales. Fuel revenue is generated by purchasing gasoline and diesel from wholesale suppliers and selling it to consumers at company-operated sites;...
Murphy USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Dec 31, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a cautiously positive strategic outlook: management laid out a credible multi-year growth plan anchored on scaling NTI openings (50+ per year), operational improvements (self-maintenance, shrink reduction), and targeted maintenance capex expected to yield $6M–$8M in savings. At the same time, several near-term headwinds — low/steady fuel margins (~$0.30/gal), 1%–3% same-store volume pressure, short-term EBITDA drag from concentrated new-store classes, weather-related maintenance costs, and lumpy category margins — temper upside in the near term. Management emphasized disciplined execution, cultural and organizational changes, and quantified operational savings, which together suggest that the positives modestly outweigh the negatives if macro fuel volatility normalizes.Positive Updates
Clear Long-Term EBITDA Goal and Growth Path
Company reiterated long-term EBITDA target (~$1.2B) and provided a multi-year growth path; 2026 guidance around ~$1.0B positions 2026 as an inflection point toward the $1.2B target if fuel volatility normalizes.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Volume Pressure
Management expects continued same-store volume pressure in the lower price environment, forecasting roughly 1%–3% volume declines and noting competitive intrusion varies by market.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Clear Long-Term EBITDA Goal and Growth Path
Company reiterated long-term EBITDA target (~$1.2B) and provided a multi-year growth path; 2026 guidance around ~$1.0B positions 2026 as an inflection point toward the $1.2B target if fuel volatility normalizes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 guidance of roughly $1.0 billion of EBITDA and a long‑term target of $1.2 billion by 2028, driven by a sustained new‑store program of 50+ new‑to‑industry (NTI) stores per year (each 50‑store cohort expected to contribute roughly $35–$40 million of EBITDA after a 3‑year ramp); near‑term cadence will include the 32 NTIs from 2024, 51 from 2025 and ~45–55 from this year. Management expects continued same‑store gallon pressure of about 1–3% and plans to protect share by putting $0.01–$0.02 per gallon “on the street,” with fuel margins modeled around $0.30/gal (c.30.5% CPG) in a low‑volatility base case and PS&W and RIN dynamics acknowledged as quarter‑variable. They will step up maintenance capex proactively (replacing dispensers, HVAC, etc.) to avoid an estimated $6–$8 million of maintenance expense, target per‑store OpEx growth near ~4% (OpEx rose 3.3% last year and management expects to remain below a prior 5% assumption), and noted discrete savings from initiatives (self‑maintenance ~ $2M saved; shrink reductions > $4M). Other modeling notes: SNAP changes are a modest headwind (<$5M and <2% of sales exposure), winter‑storm timing creates 1Q/near‑term noise, and RIN costs are largely embedded in fuel prices.Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 19.38B | 20.24B | 21.53B | 23.45B | 17.36B |
| Gross Profit | 970.70M | 2.31B | 2.31B | 2.40B | 1.85B |
| EBITDA | 1.00B | 996.70M | 1.07B | 1.19B | 820.30M |
| Net Income | 470.60M | 502.50M | 556.80M | 672.90M | 396.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.73B | 4.54B | 4.34B | 4.12B | 4.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.90M | 47.00M | 124.90M | 78.40M | 256.40M |
| Total Debt | 3.25B | 2.37B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.10B | 3.70B | 3.51B | 3.48B | 3.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 623.50M | 840.10M | 828.90M | 640.70M | 807.20M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 374.30M | 389.50M | 448.40M | 689.40M | 462.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 813.90M | 847.60M | 784.00M | 994.70M | 737.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -436.00M | -445.80M | -323.60M | -319.30M | -914.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -396.00M | -472.60M | -403.10M | -871.30M | 269.60M |
Murphy USA Technical Analysis
Neutral
491.13
Price Trends
444.86
Positive
428.03
Positive
407.14
Positive
Market Momentum
14.53
Positive
53.53
Neutral
48.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 491.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 494.64, above the 50-day MA of 444.86, and above the 200-day MA of 407.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 14.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MUSA.
Murphy USA Risk Analysis
Murphy USA disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Murphy USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Murphy USA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $27.23B | 43.17 | 17.55% | 0.39% | 13.33% | 13.33% | |
64 Neutral | $9.26B | 16.55 | 74.25% | 0.53% | -6.08% | -2.40% | |
63 Neutral | $15.36B | 259.07 | 1.44% | 3.33% | 3.26% | -25.41% | |
62 Neutral | $78.32B | 30.60 | -239.04% | ― | 6.19% | 6.98% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $58.27B | 34.26 | -72.31% | ― | 3.81% | -4.26% | |
50 Neutral | $3.43B | 52.94 | 2.00% | 2.53% | -19.41% | -957.94% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MUSA
Murphy USA
491.13
-5.76
-1.16%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts
57.49
25.48
79.61%
AZO
AutoZone
3,572.38
3.14
0.09%
CASY
Casey's General
754.72
304.92
67.79%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
113.79
5.55
5.13%
ORLY
O'Reilly Auto
93.71
2.48
2.72%
Murphy USA Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Murphy USA Names Donald Smith as Permanent CFO
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 3, 2026, Murphy USA Inc. appointed long-time executive Donald R. Smith, Jr., previously Interim Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer Treasurer, as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasur...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Murphy USA Highlights Growth Strategy at Investor Conference
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Murphy USA presented to institutional investors at the Raymond James 2026 conference, showcasing its scale, strategy, and performance in the U.S. convenience and fuel retail market. Management highlighted that the chain now excee...
Executive/Board Changes
Murphy USA Sets New CEO Pay, Executive Retention Grants
Neutral
Jan 16, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Murphy USA’s Executive Compensation Committee approved a CEO compensation package for Mindy K. West, effective January 1, 2026, providing a $1,000,000 annual base salary, a target annual cash incentive equal to 150% of b...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.