Murphy USA (MUSA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.33B
• Dividend Yield: 0.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 250.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: -6.08%
• EPS Growth: -2.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 7.25
• Shares Outstanding: 18,734,447
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 257,011
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 250,270
• PEG Ratio: -3.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.51
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.38
• 1Y Price Target: $408.60
• Price Target Upside: -9.73% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 25.3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $20.14B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $493.00 ▲(8.92% Upside)

Murphy USA's overall score reflects strong operational efficiency and positive technical indicators, tempered by concerns over declining revenue and high leverage. The earnings call and corporate events provide a positive outlook, but valuation remains a moderate factor.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Growth

A 68.5% TTM free cash flow increase signals durable cash generation capacity that supports reinvestment, new store openings, and shareholder returns. Sustainable FCF provides flexibility to service debt, fund capex and buybacks even if top-line pressures persist over the next several quarters.

Stable Operating Margins

Consistent gross and operating margins indicate structural efficiency in fuel and convenience retailing. Margin stability cushions earnings against volume volatility, supports cash conversion and enables ongoing investment in merchandising and store growth to sustain competitive position over the medium term.

Disciplined Capital Allocation

A large buyback authorization and a material dividend hike reflect management confidence in recurring cash flows and prioritization of shareholder returns. When paired with targeted store expansion, this demonstrates a long-term allocation strategy balancing growth and return of capital, reinforcing investor alignment.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

A very high debt-to-equity ratio materially increases financial risk and interest burden, reducing strategic flexibility. Elevated leverage constrains capacity to absorb prolonged revenue weakness or fund growth internally, and raises refinancing and covenant risks across a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.

Declining Revenue Trend

Sustained negative revenue growth erodes scale benefits in fuel retail, pressures per-store throughput, and limits merchandise upsell leverage. Continued top-line contraction makes deleveraging harder, compresses long-term free cash flow potential, and challenges funding of expansion without higher leverage.

Fuel Volume Sensitivity

Heavy reliance on fuel sales makes results sensitive to price levels and consumer price elasticity. A low-price, low-volatility environment suppresses volumes and limits margin expansion opportunities, creating a structural headwind to revenue and cash flow predictability unless merchandise or nonfuel mix meaningfully improves.

Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy USA generates revenue primarily through the sale of fuel and convenience store merchandise. The company earns a significant portion of its income from fuel sales, where it benefits from economies of scale and strategic supply agreements that allow it to purchase fuel at competitive prices. Additionally, convenience store sales contribute to its revenue, encompassing a variety of products such as snacks, beverages, and grocery items. The company's revenue model is further supported by partnerships with major suppliers and brands, enhancing its product offerings and driving traffic to its stores. Seasonal fluctuations in fuel prices and consumer spending patterns also impact its revenue, as does the company's ability to manage operational costs effectively.

Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy USA shows stable profitability with consistent margins but faces challenges with declining revenue and high leverage. The high debt-to-equity ratio and declining free cash flow growth highlight potential financial risks. While the company effectively generates returns on equity, the reliance on debt and cash flow issues could impact future financial stability.

Income Statement

Murphy USA's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth at -0.66%, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. However, the company maintains a stable net profit margin of 2.52% and a gross profit margin of 10.14%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively healthy at 3.75% and 5.12%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability is stable, the declining revenue trend is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.01, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. Return on equity is strong at 64.63%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is low, reflecting a reliance on debt financing. The high leverage could impact financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a substantial decline in free cash flow growth at -73.81% TTM, raising concerns about cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.85, indicating moderate cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net income. Overall, cash flow stability is a concern, with declining free cash flow posing potential liquidity risks.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.35B	20.24B	21.53B	23.45B	17.36B	11.26B
Gross Profit	1.69B	2.31B	2.31B	2.40B	1.85B	1.44B
EBITDA	982.90M	996.70M	1.07B	1.19B	820.30M	722.70M
Net Income	471.20M	502.50M	556.80M	672.90M	396.90M	386.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.68B	4.54B	4.34B	4.12B	4.05B	2.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	42.80M	47.00M	124.90M	78.40M	256.40M	163.60M
Total Debt	2.78B	2.37B	2.27B	2.27B	2.24B	1.14B
Total Liabilities	4.13B	3.70B	3.51B	3.48B	3.24B	1.90B
Stockholders Equity	546.00M	840.10M	828.90M	640.70M	807.20M	784.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	367.20M	389.50M	448.40M	689.40M	462.70M	333.00M
Operating Cash Flow	817.10M	847.60M	784.00M	994.70M	737.40M	563.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-446.10M	-445.80M	-323.60M	-319.30M	-914.20M	-224.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-380.70M	-472.60M	-403.10M	-871.30M	269.60M	-456.10M

Murphy USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 452.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 452.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 418.51, above the 50-day MA of 394.74, and above the 200-day MA of 410.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 13.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.64 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUSA.

Murphy USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GPC	69 Neutral	$18.61B	23.05	17.05%	3.33%	3.26%	-25.41%
CASY	68 Neutral	$22.84B	37.90	16.99%	0.39%	13.33%	13.33%
MUSA	68 Neutral	$8.33B	18.75	68.48%	0.53%	-6.08%	-2.40%
ORLY	66 Neutral	$80.21B	32.44	―	―	6.19%	6.98%
AZO	63 Neutral	$57.53B	24.17	―	―	3.81%	-4.26%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AAP	48 Neutral	$2.57B	-6.77	-23.85%	2.53%	-19.41%	-957.94%

Murphy USA Corporate Events

Murphy USA Sets New CEO Pay, Executive Retention Grants

On January 12, 2026, Murphy USA’s Executive Compensation Committee approved a CEO compensation package for Mindy K. West, effective January 1, 2026, providing a $1,000,000 annual base salary, a target annual cash incentive equal to 150% of base salary, and a 2026 long-term incentive award with a targeted grant value of $5,000,000 under the company’s omnibus incentive plan. On the same date, the committee also approved one-time retention grants for four senior executives—Chris A. Click, Renee M. Bacon, Robert J. Chumley, and interim CFO Donald R. Smith Jr.—to be issued in February 2026 as time-based restricted stock units valued at $1,000,000 for Click and $500,000 for each of the others, which will cliff vest after three years and are intended to support leadership stability and long-term performance during the CEO transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUSA) stock is a Sell with a $405.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy USA stock, see the MUSA Stock Forecast page.

Murphy USA Announces CEO Transition Plan

Murphy USA Inc. announced that R. Andrew Clyde will retire as CEO and from the Board of Directors on December 31, 2025, with Mindy K. West set to take over as CEO and join the Board on January 1, 2026. In preparation for this transition, West has entered into a Severance Protection Agreement effective January 1, 2026, which outlines her compensation and benefits in the event of a termination following a change in control. Additionally, Clyde will assist in the transition through a Transition and Advisory Services Agreement, remaining a non-executive full-time employee until February 28, 2026, and then serving as an advisor until February 28, 2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUSA) stock is a Hold with a $420.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy USA stock, see the MUSA Stock Forecast page.

Murphy USA Appoints Michael G. Kulp to Board

On December 10, 2025, Murphy USA Inc. announced the appointment of Michael G. Kulp to its Board of Directors. Mr. Kulp, an experienced leader in retail food service operations and CEO of KBP Brands, brings valuable insights to Murphy USA’s operational strategies. His appointment is expected to enhance the company’s ability to deliver value to shareholders through his extensive experience in scaling multi-unit businesses. Mr. Kulp will serve on the Audit Committee and the Executive Compensation Committee, with his term as a Class I Director expiring at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUSA) stock is a Buy with a $432.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy USA stock, see the MUSA Stock Forecast page.

Murphy USA Announces Leadership Transition and Share Buyback

Murphy USA announced a leadership transition with Mindy K. West appointed as President and Chief Operating Officer, effective immediately, and set to become President and CEO on January 1, 2026, succeeding Andrew Clyde who will retire at the end of 2025. This transition is part of a strategic plan to ensure continuity in leadership and maintain the company’s growth trajectory. Additionally, the Board authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program and increased the quarterly dividend by 19%, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns and a robust capital allocation strategy. These actions are designed to enhance shareholder value and support the company’s long-term growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUSA) stock is a Hold with a $431.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy USA stock, see the MUSA Stock Forecast page.