Murphy USA (MUSA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.18B
• Dividend Yield: 0.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 336.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.39
• Revenue Growth: -7.95%
• EPS Growth: -2.60%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 7.36
• Shares Outstanding: 19,292,355
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 249,015
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 336,208
• PEG Ratio: -3.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.51
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.64
• 1Y Price Target: $417.14
• Price Target Upside: 12.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $379.00 ▲(1.80% Upside)

The overall stock score for Murphy USA highlights key challenges in technical performance and growth prospects. While the company shows strong profitability and effective cost management, bearish technical indicators and pressures on revenue growth and merchandising weigh heavily on the score. Positive corporate governance developments slightly mitigate these concerns.

Positive Factors

Business Model

Murphy’s has an advantaged business model within the U.S. C-store, and the company and stock have been strong performers, up significantly over the last five years.

Fuel Margins

All-in fuel margins remained robust at 32.0 cents per gallon, supported by disciplined pricing and favorable supply dynamics.

Negative Factors

Customer Volumes

Total retail gallons declined 0.2% YoY, and same-store volumes fell 3.2%, underscoring the impact of lower customer traffic and reduced transaction counts.

Earnings

Q1 earnings per share of $2.63 fell 34% below the consensus of $3.96.

EBITDA Guidance

The real headline was the downward revision to long-term EBITDA guidance—reflecting management’s tempered outlook amid persistent volume challenges and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy USA Inc. is a leading retailer of gasoline and convenience store merchandise in the United States. The company primarily operates its business through its network of retail gas stations, offering a range of fuel products, including gasoline and diesel, alongside convenience store items such as snacks, beverages, and other daily necessities. Murphy USA's operations are concentrated in the southern and midwestern regions of the U.S., where it focuses on delivering value to customers through competitive pricing and a customer-friendly shopping experience.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy USA generates revenue primarily through the sale of fuel and convenience store merchandise. The company's key revenue streams include retail gasoline sales, which account for the largest portion of its earnings, and in-store sales from convenience items. The company has established partnerships with various fuel suppliers to ensure a steady supply of gasoline at competitive prices, allowing it to maintain attractive pricing for customers. Additionally, Murphy USA benefits from its loyalty programs and credit card partnerships, which encourage repeat business and drive sales. The company's strategic location of its gas stations, often near major highways and densely populated areas, also contributes to higher foot traffic and increased sales volume, further solidifying its revenue model.

Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy USA exhibits strong profitability and cash generation capabilities, but faces challenges in sustaining revenue growth and managing leverage. The company's solid profit margins and robust cash flows are counterbalanced by a reliance on debt and declining free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Murphy USA demonstrates solid profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of around 10% across the periods and a healthy net profit margin of approximately 2-3%. However, the company faces challenges in maintaining revenue growth, as evidenced by a negative revenue growth rate of -3.77% from 2024 to the TTM period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a reliance on debt financing, which has increased over time. Although the return on equity (ROE) is strong at around 75.92% in the TTM period, the equity ratio is low, at approximately 13.98%, pointing to potential financial risk if leverage becomes unsustainable.

Cash Flow

Murphy USA maintains a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio of about 1.26 in the TTM period, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate is concerning, with a significant decline from 2024 to the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, reflecting a need to manage capital expenditures more effectively.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.48B	20.24B	21.53B	23.45B	17.36B	11.26B
Gross Profit	1.97B	2.31B	2.31B	2.40B	1.85B	1.44B
EBITDA	996.40M	996.70M	1.07B	1.19B	820.30M	722.70M
Net Income	490.50M	502.50M	556.80M	672.90M	396.90M	386.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.62B	4.54B	4.34B	4.12B	4.05B	2.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.10M	47.00M	124.90M	78.40M	256.40M	163.60M
Total Debt	2.59B	2.37B	2.27B	2.27B	2.24B	1.14B
Total Liabilities	3.98B	3.70B	3.51B	3.48B	3.24B	1.90B
Stockholders Equity	646.10M	840.10M	828.90M	640.70M	807.20M	784.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	364.70M	389.50M	448.40M	689.40M	462.70M	333.00M
Operating Cash Flow	834.40M	847.60M	784.00M	994.70M	737.40M	563.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-460.70M	-445.80M	-323.60M	-319.30M	-914.20M	-224.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-399.40M	-472.60M	-403.10M	-871.30M	269.60M	-456.10M

Murphy USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 372.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 372.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 382.08, below the 50-day MA of 402.77, and below the 200-day MA of 463.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MUSA.

Murphy USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASY	77 Outperform	$18.71B	34.39	16.75%	0.42%	7.25%	9.12%
CHWY	72 Outperform	$16.43B	44.32	76.24%	―	7.64%	369.79%
ASO	71 Outperform	$3.58B	9.94	20.14%	0.89%	-3.57%	-17.43%
ARKO	62 Neutral	$560.33M	66.88	4.01%	2.31%	-13.05%	-68.59%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.72B	12.54	-5.48%	3.05%	1.52%	-15.30%
MUSA	59 Neutral	$7.18B	15.67	67.31%	0.54%	-7.95%	-2.60%
AAP	48 Neutral	$3.57B	59.62	-24.78%	1.68%	-22.50%	-35219.23%

Murphy USA Corporate Events

Murphy USA Releases Q2 Operational Update

On June 16, 2025, Murphy USA released an operational update ahead of its participation in two investor conferences. The update highlighted second quarter-to-date metrics, revealing a slight increase in total fuel volumes and merchandise sales, despite a decline in same-store sales for nicotine and non-nicotine products. The company also reported a rise in operating expenses and announced the construction of 22 new stores and 18 rebuilds, indicating ongoing expansion efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUSA) stock is a Hold with a $540.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy USA stock, see the MUSA Stock Forecast page.