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Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
NYSE:MUSA
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Murphy USA
(NYSE:MUSA)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$478.00
▲(7.45% Upside)
The score is primarily weighed down by balance-sheet risk (very high leverage) and softer free cash flow trends, despite a TTM revenue rebound and steady profitability. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, while valuation is reasonable but not compelling given the low dividend yield. Earnings-call commentary adds a modest positive tilt due to reiterated EBITDA targets and a quantified growth/efficiency plan, tempered by near-term margin and volume headwinds.
Positive Factors
Scalable New‑Store Growth Plan
A repeatable program of 50+ new-to-industry stores per year creates a multi-year organic growth runway and a stair-step EBITDA profile. Each cohort’s $35–$40M mature EBITDA contribution provides predictable, scalable earnings expansion if execution and ramp timelines hold.
Operational Cost Savings & Discipline
Documented recurring savings from self-maintenance and shrink reduction demonstrate management’s ability to lift margins through operational changes. These structural efficiency gains can be scaled across the store base, improving long-term margin sustainability independent of fuel cycles.
Proactive Maintenance CapEx to Reduce Volatility
Shifting spend from unpredictable break-fix to planned maintenance converts volatile expense into controllable capex, improving store uptime and lowering emergency repair costs. Over time this reduces operating volatility and supports steadier cash flow and margin profiles.
Negative Factors
High Leverage / Balance‑Sheet Risk
A materially higher debt load and a reduced equity base amplify earnings volatility and limit financial flexibility. High leverage increases refinancing and covenant risk, constrains the ability to fund acquisitions or shareholder returns, and makes the company more sensitive to cash‑flow shocks.
Weakened Free Cash Flow & Cash Conversion
Sharply lower free cash flow and weak cash conversion reduce internal funding for growth, capex, and debt paydown. Persistent subpar FCF increases reliance on external financing and limits capacity to de‑risk the balance sheet, making strategic initiatives harder to fund sustainably.
Low Fuel Margins and Same‑Store Volume Pressure
Structural pressure from declining gallons and low modeled fuel margins caps top-line leverage and profit potential. Defensive pricing to protect share further compresses spreads, which, combined with volume erosion, constrains durable margin expansion across the core fuel business.
Murphy USA (MUSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.33B
Dividend Yield0.53%
Average Volume (3M)233.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.5
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-6.08%
EPS Growth-2.40%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.67
Shares Outstanding18,734,447
10 Day Avg. Volume276,354
30 Day Avg. Volume233,194
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.69
Price to Book (P/B)12.26
Price to Sales (P/S)0.51
P/FCF Ratio26.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$447.00Price Target Upside0.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMurphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.
How the Company Makes MoneyMurphy USA generates revenue primarily through the sale of fuel and convenience store merchandise. The company earns a significant portion of its income from fuel sales, where it benefits from economies of scale and strategic supply agreements that allow it to purchase fuel at competitive prices. Additionally, convenience store sales contribute to its revenue, encompassing a variety of products such as snacks, beverages, and grocery items. The company's revenue model is further supported by partnerships with major suppliers and brands, enhancing its product offerings and driving traffic to its stores. Seasonal fluctuations in fuel prices and consumer spending patterns also impact its revenue, as does the company's ability to manage operational costs effectively.
Murphy USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Dec 31, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a cautiously positive strategic outlook: management laid out a credible multi-year growth plan anchored on scaling NTI openings (50+ per year), operational improvements (self-maintenance, shrink reduction), and targeted maintenance capex expected to yield $6M–$8M in savings. At the same time, several near-term headwinds — low/steady fuel margins (~$0.30/gal), 1%–3% same-store volume pressure, short-term EBITDA drag from concentrated new-store classes, weather-related maintenance costs, and lumpy category margins — temper upside in the near term. Management emphasized disciplined execution, cultural and organizational changes, and quantified operational savings, which together suggest that the positives modestly outweigh the negatives if macro fuel volatility normalizes.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Clear Long-Term EBITDA Goal and Growth Path
Company reiterated long-term EBITDA target (~$1.2B) and provided a multi-year growth path; 2026 guidance around ~$1.0B positions 2026 as an inflection point toward the $1.2B target if fuel volatility normalizes.
New-Store Program Scaling (NTIs)
Plan to sustain 50+ new-to-industry (NTI) stores per year; each 50-store class is expected to contribute $35M–$40M of EBITDA at maturity after a 3-year ramp, creating a multi-year stair-step EBITDA tailwind.
Proactive Maintenance CapEx to Reduce Expense Volatility
Announced a step-up in proactive maintenance capital (dispensers, HVAC, etc.) to avoid unpredictable break-fix costs; projected maintenance expense savings of roughly $6M–$8M over time from these investments.
Strong Expense Discipline and OpEx Performance
Fiscal 2025 store-level operating expense growth ran at only 3.3% (below previous 5% assumptions); management expects a normalized per-store expense run rate of ~4% going forward.
Operational Savings and Loss Prevention Wins
Self-maintenance initiatives (e.g., card reader battery swaps) saved nearly $2M; improved inventory and loss-prevention actions reduced shrink by over $4M year-over-year.
Quick and Accretive Small Acquisitions
Completed targeted smaller tuck-in deals (example: Colorado) where Murphy could 'cherry-pick' assets, integrate in <30 days, add density quickly and leverage loyalty/assortment to drive incremental traffic.
Nicotine Category Momentum and Promotional Execution
Management sees continued growth in alternate nicotine categories (pouches, etc.) and strong execution on manufacturer-led promotions; company continues to take share in cigarettes despite lumpy promo timing.
Limited SNAP Exposure and Quantified Impact
SNAP-related changes affect <2% of sales; early read suggests modest headwind with estimated overall impact of less than ~$5M, and management has included this in guidance.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Volume Pressure
Management expects continued same-store volume pressure in the lower price environment, forecasting roughly 1%–3% volume declines and noting competitive intrusion varies by market.
Short-Term EBITDA Drag from Rapid Store Buildout
Scaling to large classes (50+ NTIs) creates a short-term drag on EBITDA because new stores incur full OpEx immediately while fuel and merch ramp over 1–3 years; a concentrated class opening can temporarily outweigh mature-store contributions.
Low, Stable Fuel Margin Assumption Limits Near-Term Upside
Fuel margin outlook is anchored around ~$0.30/gal (management referenced ~30.5 cents CPG); management expects a lower-volatility, low-price environment which reduces the chance of fuel-driven upside.
Planned Retail Pricing to Protect Share Reduces Gross Margin
Company expects to put $0.01–$0.02 per gallon 'on the street' in certain markets to defend share, which helps volumes but compresses fuel margin versus not taking such pricing actions.
Weather-Related and Seasonal Cost Uncertainty
Winter storms are expected to create higher maintenance costs in Q1 and add operating variability; management left guidance conservative given storm uncertainty and potential back-end impacts.
Lumpy Retail and Tobacco Margins
Cigarette and tobacco category results were lumpy due to timing of promotional dollars; QuickChek also showed pressured margins despite stronger sales and traffic challenges, requiring menu/assortment rationalization.
PS&W / RINs Volatility Uncertainty
PS&W (product/space & wholesale) lines benefited from arbitrage/line-space dynamics in 4Q but are subject to volatility; RINs are largely embedded in fuel cost but short-term swings can create temporary dislocations.
Higher OpEx for Larger New Store Formats
New larger-format stores have higher initial operating costs and require more staffing and time for merchandise sales to ramp (merch ~3-year ramp), contributing to elevated short-term per-store expense pressure.
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 guidance of roughly $1.0 billion of EBITDA and a long‑term target of $1.2 billion by 2028, driven by a sustained new‑store program of 50+ new‑to‑industry (NTI) stores per year (each 50‑store cohort expected to contribute roughly $35–$40 million of EBITDA after a 3‑year ramp); near‑term cadence will include the 32 NTIs from 2024, 51 from 2025 and ~45–55 from this year. Management expects continued same‑store gallon pressure of about 1–3% and plans to protect share by putting $0.01–$0.02 per gallon “on the street,” with fuel margins modeled around $0.30/gal (c.30.5% CPG) in a low‑volatility base case and PS&W and RIN dynamics acknowledged as quarter‑variable. They will step up maintenance capex proactively (replacing dispensers, HVAC, etc.) to avoid an estimated $6–$8 million of maintenance expense, target per‑store OpEx growth near ~4% (OpEx rose 3.3% last year and management expects to remain below a prior 5% assumption), and noted discrete savings from initiatives (self‑maintenance ~ $2M saved; shrink reductions > $4M). Other modeling notes: SNAP changes are a modest headwind (<$5M and <2% of sales exposure), winter‑storm timing creates 1Q/near‑term noise, and RIN costs are largely embedded in fuel prices.Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue has rebounded in TTM (+17%) with steady (but thin) profitability, but overall quality is held back by very high leverage as equity has shrunk and by weakened free cash flow and cash conversion in TTM.Income Statement
Revenue has been volatile: strong growth in 2021–2022, followed by two annual declines (2023 and 2024), then a rebound in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (+17%). Profitability is steady but thin for the model, with net margins consistently around ~2–3% and EBITDA margins near ~5%. However, margins have generally compressed versus 2020–2022 (notably weaker gross margin in TTM), suggesting a tougher pricing/spread environment even as top-line recovers.63
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the key concern. Debt relative to equity has risen meaningfully, reaching very high levels in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) as equity shrank, reducing balance-sheet flexibility. While returns on equity appear strong, they are amplified by the low equity base and higher leverage, increasing sensitivity to earnings or working-capital swings. Total assets are relatively stable, but the capital structure trend is the main weakness.34
Negative
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains positive, but cash generation has weakened versus prior years. Free cash flow declined in 2023 and 2024 and dropped sharply again in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), signaling less cash available after investment needs. Cash conversion is also mixed: free cash flow is running at under half of net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), implying greater reinvestment/working-capital demands or less efficient conversion than earlier periods.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.38B | 20.24B | 21.53B | 23.45B | 17.36B | 11.26B |
| Gross Profit | 1.09B | 2.31B | 2.31B | 2.40B | 1.85B | 1.44B |
| EBITDA | 940.50M | 996.70M | 1.07B | 1.19B | 820.30M | 722.70M |
| Net Income | 470.60M | 502.50M | 556.80M | 672.90M | 396.90M | 386.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.73B | 4.54B | 4.34B | 4.12B | 4.05B | 2.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.90M | 47.00M | 124.90M | 78.40M | 256.40M | 163.60M |
| Total Debt | 2.72B | 2.37B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.24B | 1.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.10B | 3.70B | 3.51B | 3.48B | 3.24B | 1.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 623.50M | 840.10M | 828.90M | 640.70M | 807.20M | 784.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 238.60M | 389.50M | 448.40M | 689.40M | 462.70M | 333.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 561.50M | 847.60M | 784.00M | 994.70M | 737.40M | 563.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -436.00M | -445.80M | -323.60M | -319.30M | -914.20M | -224.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -396.00M | -472.60M | -403.10M | -871.30M | 269.60M | -456.10M |
Murphy USA Technical Analysis
Positive
444.85
Price Trends
411.86
Positive
394.93
Positive
407.27
Positive
Market Momentum
5.50
Positive
64.62
Neutral
75.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 444.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 432.22, above the 50-day MA of 411.86, and above the 200-day MA of 407.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUSA.
Murphy USA Risk Analysis
Murphy USA disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Murphy USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Murphy USA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $20.58B | 25.49 | 17.05% | 3.33% | 3.26% | -25.41% | |
68 Neutral | $24.01B | 39.84 | 16.99% | 0.39% | 13.33% | 13.33% | |
66 Neutral | $81.66B | 31.34 | ― | ― | 6.19% | 6.98% | |
65 Neutral | $8.33B | 18.46 | 68.48% | 0.53% | -6.08% | -2.40% | |
63 Neutral | $61.64B | 25.14 | ― | ― | 3.81% | -4.26% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
48 Neutral | $3.27B | -8.38 | -23.85% | 2.53% | -19.41% | -957.94% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MUSA
Murphy USA
444.85
-51.97
-10.46%
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Murphy USA Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Murphy USA Sets New CEO Pay, Executive Retention Grants
Neutral
Jan 16, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Murphy USA’s Executive Compensation Committee approved a CEO compensation package for Mindy K. West, effective January 1, 2026, providing a $1,000,000 annual base salary, a target annual cash incentive equal to 150% of base salary, and a 2026 long-term incentive award with a targeted grant value of $5,000,000 under the company’s omnibus incentive plan. On the same date, the committee also approved one-time retention grants for four senior executives—Chris A. Click, Renee M. Bacon, Robert J. Chumley, and interim CFO Donald R. Smith Jr.—to be issued in February 2026 as time-based restricted stock units valued at $1,000,000 for Click and $500,000 for each of the others, which will cliff vest after three years and are intended to support leadership stability and long-term performance during the CEO transition.
The most recent analyst rating on (MUSA) stock is a Sell with a $405.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy USA stock, see the MUSA Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
Murphy USA Announces CEO Transition Plan
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025
Murphy USA Inc. announced that R. Andrew Clyde will retire as CEO and from the Board of Directors on December 31, 2025, with Mindy K. West set to take over as CEO and join the Board on January 1, 2026. In preparation for this transition, West has entered into a Severance Protection Agreement effective January 1, 2026, which outlines her compensation and benefits in the event of a termination following a change in control. Additionally, Clyde will assist in the transition through a Transition and Advisory Services Agreement, remaining a non-executive full-time employee until February 28, 2026, and then serving as an advisor until February 28, 2027.
The most recent analyst rating on (MUSA) stock is a Hold with a $420.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy USA stock, see the MUSA Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Murphy USA Appoints Michael G. Kulp to Board
Positive
Dec 10, 2025
On December 10, 2025, Murphy USA Inc. announced the appointment of Michael G. Kulp to its Board of Directors. Mr. Kulp, an experienced leader in retail food service operations and CEO of KBP Brands, brings valuable insights to Murphy USA’s operational strategies. His appointment is expected to enhance the company’s ability to deliver value to shareholders through his extensive experience in scaling multi-unit businesses. Mr. Kulp will serve on the Audit Committee and the Executive Compensation Committee, with his term as a Class I Director expiring at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (MUSA) stock is a Buy with a $432.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy USA stock, see the MUSA Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.