Murphy USA (MUSA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.23B
• Dividend Yield: 0.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 250.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: -6.08%
• EPS Growth: -2.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 7.25
• Shares Outstanding: 18,734,447
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 210,196
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 250,157
• PEG Ratio: -3.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.51
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.41
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.38
• 1Y Price Target: $409.50
• Price Target Upside: 0.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 23.56
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $19.53B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $420.00 ▲(3.34% Upside)

Murphy USA's overall score reflects strong operational efficiency and positive technical indicators, tempered by concerns over declining revenue and high leverage. The earnings call and corporate events provide a positive outlook, but valuation remains a moderate factor.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Flow Generation

The strong free cash flow growth indicates improved cash generation capabilities, providing the company with flexibility to invest in growth and return capital to shareholders.

Leadership Transition

The leadership transition ensures continuity and strategic focus, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and sustaining the company's growth trajectory.

New Store Growth

The planned store openings indicate an expansion strategy that can drive revenue growth and strengthen market presence over the long term.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and impacting financial stability.

Declining Revenue Trend

The negative revenue growth trend suggests challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact long-term profitability and market competitiveness.

Fuel Volume Decline

Declining fuel volumes indicate challenges in the core business segment, potentially affecting revenue and margin sustainability in a competitive market.

Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy USA Inc. is a leading retailer of fuel and convenience store merchandise in the United States. The company operates a network of retail locations primarily under the Murphy USA brand, focusing on providing competitively priced gasoline along with a variety of convenience store products. Murphy USA caters to a wide range of customers, including travelers, commuters, and local residents, and has positioned itself as a key player in the fuel retailing industry, with a strong emphasis on customer service and high-quality offerings.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy USA generates revenue primarily through the sale of fuel and convenience store merchandise. The company earns a significant portion of its income from fuel sales, where it benefits from economies of scale and strategic supply agreements that allow it to purchase fuel at competitive prices. Additionally, convenience store sales contribute to its revenue, encompassing a variety of products such as snacks, beverages, and grocery items. The company's revenue model is further supported by partnerships with major suppliers and brands, enhancing its product offerings and driving traffic to its stores. Seasonal fluctuations in fuel prices and consumer spending patterns also impact its revenue, as does the company's ability to manage operational costs effectively.

Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy USA shows stable profitability with consistent margins but faces challenges with declining revenue and high leverage. The high debt-to-equity ratio and declining free cash flow growth highlight potential financial risks. While the company effectively generates returns on equity, the reliance on debt and cash flow issues could impact future financial stability.

Income Statement

Murphy USA's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth at -0.66%, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. However, the company maintains a stable net profit margin of 2.52% and a gross profit margin of 10.14%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively healthy at 3.75% and 5.12%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability is stable, the declining revenue trend is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.01, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. Return on equity is strong at 64.63%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is low, reflecting a reliance on debt financing. The high leverage could impact financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a substantial decline in free cash flow growth at -73.81% TTM, raising concerns about cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.85, indicating moderate cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net income. Overall, cash flow stability is a concern, with declining free cash flow posing potential liquidity risks.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.35B	20.24B	21.53B	23.45B	17.36B	11.26B
Gross Profit	1.69B	2.31B	2.31B	2.40B	1.85B	1.44B
EBITDA	982.90M	996.70M	1.07B	1.19B	820.30M	722.70M
Net Income	471.20M	502.50M	556.80M	672.90M	396.90M	386.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.68B	4.54B	4.34B	4.12B	4.05B	2.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	42.80M	47.00M	124.90M	78.40M	256.40M	163.60M
Total Debt	2.78B	2.37B	2.27B	2.27B	2.24B	1.14B
Total Liabilities	4.13B	3.70B	3.51B	3.48B	3.24B	1.90B
Stockholders Equity	546.00M	840.10M	828.90M	640.70M	807.20M	784.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	367.20M	389.50M	448.40M	689.40M	462.70M	333.00M
Operating Cash Flow	817.10M	847.60M	784.00M	994.70M	737.40M	563.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-446.10M	-445.80M	-323.60M	-319.30M	-914.20M	-224.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-380.70M	-472.60M	-403.10M	-871.30M	269.60M	-456.10M

Murphy USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 406.41
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 406.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 383.19, above the 50-day MA of 377.31, and below the 200-day MA of 414.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 6.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUSA.

Murphy USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GPC	69 Neutral	$18.64B	23.08	17.05%	3.13%	3.26%	-25.41%
CASY	68 Neutral	$20.12B	33.38	16.99%	0.39%	13.33%	13.33%
MUSA	68 Neutral	$7.23B	16.27	68.48%	0.53%	-6.08%	-2.40%
ORLY	66 Neutral	$79.31B	32.60	―	―	6.19%	6.98%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AZO	61 Neutral	$57.70B	24.03	―	―	3.81%	-4.26%
AAP	48 Neutral	$2.94B	―	-23.85%	2.16%	-19.41%	-957.94%

Murphy USA Corporate Events

Murphy USA Appoints Michael G. Kulp to Board

On December 10, 2025, Murphy USA Inc. announced the appointment of Michael G. Kulp to its Board of Directors. Mr. Kulp, an experienced leader in retail food service operations and CEO of KBP Brands, brings valuable insights to Murphy USA’s operational strategies. His appointment is expected to enhance the company’s ability to deliver value to shareholders through his extensive experience in scaling multi-unit businesses. Mr. Kulp will serve on the Audit Committee and the Executive Compensation Committee, with his term as a Class I Director expiring at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders.

Murphy USA Announces Leadership Transition and Share Buyback

Murphy USA announced a leadership transition with Mindy K. West appointed as President and Chief Operating Officer, effective immediately, and set to become President and CEO on January 1, 2026, succeeding Andrew Clyde who will retire at the end of 2025. This transition is part of a strategic plan to ensure continuity in leadership and maintain the company’s growth trajectory. Additionally, the Board authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program and increased the quarterly dividend by 19%, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns and a robust capital allocation strategy. These actions are designed to enhance shareholder value and support the company’s long-term growth objectives.