Casey's General (CASY)
NASDAQ:CASY
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Casey's General
(NASDAQ:CASY)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$913.00
â–²(20.97% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial performance and a strong technical uptrend, reinforced by upbeat guidance and operational momentum from the latest earnings call. The primary constraint is valuation (high P/E and low yield), alongside volatility in free cash flow and expense/fuel-related risks.
Positive Factors
Prepared food & inside margin expansion
Higher-margin prepared food growth is a durable profit driver for Casey's: its strong margins (58.3%) and rising sales shift revenue mix away from thin fuel margins, supporting long-term store-level profitability, frequency, and resilience to fuel price swings.
Negative Factors
Free cash flow volatility & decline
Volatile and weakened free cash flow reduces financial optionality and raises sensitivity to capex or working-capital swings. Even with positive operating cash flow, inconsistent FCF limits sustainable buybacks/dividends and increases reliance on borrowing or liquidity during investment cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Prepared food & inside margin expansion
Higher-margin prepared food growth is a durable profit driver for Casey's: its strong margins (58.3%) and rising sales shift revenue mix away from thin fuel margins, supporting long-term store-level profitability, frequency, and resilience to fuel price swings.
Read all positive factors
Casey's General (CASY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$30.39B
Dividend Yield0.39%
Average Volume (3M)744.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)43.2
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth9.22%
EPS Growth21.39%
CountryUS
Employees23,338
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.49
Shares Outstanding36,959,030
10 Day Avg. Volume1,285,968
30 Day Avg. Volume744,125
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.51
Price to Book (P/B)4.89
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio29.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$746.70Price Target Upside-1.06% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)19.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.34B
Casey's General Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in the United States. Its stores offer pizza, donuts, breakfast items, and sandwiches; and tobacco and nico...
How the Company Makes Money
Casey’s primarily makes money through three main revenue streams: (1) Motor fuel sales: Casey’s sells gasoline and, in some locations, diesel. Fuel typically drives a large portion of total revenue due to high sales volumes, with profitability inf...
Casey's General Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCasey's General Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 09, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial wins: large YoY improvements in EPS, net income and EBITDA; healthy inside sales growth and margin expansion in prepared food and grocery/GM; fuel margin improvement; ample liquidity and active capital return. Management also highlighted meaningful strategic progress (wings rollout, >10M rewards members, acquisition integration and synergies). Offsetting items include modest top-line revenue growth overall (0.3%), rising operating expenses and a decline in free cash flow, along with fuel price volatility and regional fuel volume headwinds. Overall, the positive financial and operational momentum and guidance upgrades materially outweigh the headwinds, though expense inflation and fuel volatility warrant monitoring.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and Profitability Growth
Diluted EPS of $3.49, up 50% YoY; net income $130M, up 49% YoY; EBITDA $309M, up 27.5% YoY.
Negative Updates
Revenue Growth Muted
Total revenue up only 0.3% YoY (+$12M), largely because lower retail fuel prices offset higher inside sales despite higher fuel gallons sold.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings and Profitability Growth
Diluted EPS of $3.49, up 50% YoY; net income $130M, up 49% YoY; EBITDA $309M, up 27.5% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Casey’s updated fiscal 2026 guidance calls for EBITDA to increase 18–20%, inside same‑store sales to rise 3.5–4.5% (year‑to‑date ~3.8%), inside gross margin of 41.5–42.5%, total operating expenses to increase ~10% (with fourth‑quarter operating expense expected up mid‑single digits), and an effective tax rate of 23.5–24.5%; management also noted February fuel CPG in the low $0.40/gal range, slight current cheese cost favorability, that the remainder of annual guidance is unchanged, and highlighted financial flexibility with ~$1.4 billion available liquidity and a credit‑facility debt/EBITDA of ~1.6x.Casey's General Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 | Apr 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.98B | 15.94B | 14.86B | 15.09B | 12.95B | 8.71B |
| Gross Profit | 4.06B | 3.75B | 3.35B | 3.07B | 2.76B | 2.36B |
| EBITDA | 1.51B | 1.20B | 1.06B | 952.46M | 801.24M | 719.24M |
| Net Income | 650.07M | 546.52M | 501.97M | 446.69M | 339.79M | 312.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.59B | 8.44B | 6.35B | 5.94B | 5.51B | 4.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 465.02M | 326.66M | 206.48M | 378.87M | 158.88M | 336.55M |
| Total Debt | 2.90B | 2.96B | 1.64B | 1.67B | 1.69B | 1.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.73B | 4.93B | 3.33B | 3.28B | 3.26B | 2.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.85B | 3.51B | 3.02B | 2.66B | 2.24B | 1.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 667.33M | 584.63M | 370.95M | 405.38M | 462.27M | 362.84M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.31B | 1.09B | 892.95M | 881.95M | 788.74M | 804.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -717.07M | -1.73B | -825.36M | -545.03M | -1.16B | -444.34M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -525.61M | 755.99M | -239.98M | -116.93M | 191.59M | -101.48M |
Casey's General Technical Analysis
Positive
754.72
Price Trends
692.81
Positive
637.37
Positive
583.63
Positive
Market Momentum
17.81
Positive
64.85
Neutral
31.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CASY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 754.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 726.52, above the 50-day MA of 692.81, and above the 200-day MA of 583.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 17.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CASY.
Casey's General Risk Analysis
Casey's General disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Casey's General reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Casey's General Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $30.39B | 43.17 | 17.55% | 0.39% | 9.22% | 21.39% | |
64 Neutral | $20.21B | 35.01 | 19.45% | 2.33% | 28.06% | -27.66% | |
62 Neutral | $10.88B | 16.78 | 89.51% | 0.53% | -1.25% | 21.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $18.46B | 35.89 | 42.57% | 1.80% | 4.64% | 1.15% | |
58 Neutral | $12.65B | 12.85 | 38.54% | 5.46% | 0.39% | 17.90% | |
50 Neutral | $14.76B | 19.30 | 1.31% | 3.33% | 4.79% | -92.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CASY
Casey's General
835.92
379.02
82.95%
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104.99
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MUSA
Murphy USA
596.92
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TSCO
Tractor Supply
33.83
-16.15
-32.31%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.