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Casey's General (CASY)
NASDAQ:CASY
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Casey's General (CASY) AI Stock Analysis

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CASY

Casey's General

(NASDAQ:CASY)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$576.00
▲(15.62% Upside)
Casey's General Stores demonstrates strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, which are the most significant factors in its overall score. The technical analysis and valuation indicate some caution, with mixed signals and a relatively high P/E ratio. Corporate events further bolster the outlook with positive strategic moves.
Positive Factors
Competitive Positioning
Casey’s General Stores has a unique position in the U.S. convenience store landscape by focusing operations in small-town and rural markets, offering a meaningful competitive advantage.
Earnings
CASY delivered a sizable FQ4 beat with EPS 35% ahead of the consensus.
Guidance
Management issued its initial FY26 outlook, which suggests momentum from FY25 is expected to carry into FY26.
Negative Factors
Inside Sales
Inside same-store sales fell short of consensus expectations, affected by likely weather and calendar impacts.
Valuation
There was an inside sales miss and CASY's relatively rich valuation.

Casey's General (CASY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Casey's General Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCasey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names. Its stores offer a selection of food, including freshly prepared foods, such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches; beverages; tobacco and nicotine products; health and beauty aids; automotive products; and other nonfood items. The company's stores also provide motor fuel for sale on a self-service basis; and gasoline and diesel fuel. In addition, its stores offer various products, include soft drinks, energy, water, sports drinks, juices, coffee, and tea and dairy products; beer, wine, and spirits; snacks, candy, packaged bakery, and other food items; ice, ice cream, meals, and appetizers; health and beauty aids, electronic accessories, housewares, and pet supplies; and lotto/lottery and prepaid cards. Further, the company operates two stores that sells tobacco and nicotine products; one liquor store; and one grocery store. As of April 30, 2022, it operated 2,452 convenience stores. Casey's General Stores, Inc. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.
How the Company Makes MoneyCasey's General Stores generates revenue through several key streams: fuel sales, grocery and convenience store merchandise, and prepared food services. A significant portion of its earnings comes from fuel sales, where the company benefits from selling gasoline to customers at competitive prices. Additionally, the grocery and convenience store merchandise includes snacks, beverages, and household goods, which contribute to overall sales. Prepared food services, particularly its popular pizza offerings, have become a crucial revenue driver, appealing to customers seeking quick meal options. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with suppliers and vendors to enhance its product offerings and improve operational efficiencies, further supporting its revenue growth.

Casey's General Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 09, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 08, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Casey's General Stores reported a strong fiscal year 2025 with record financial results, significant store growth, and robust sales in both the inside and fuel segments. However, there were challenges due to the leap year adjustment, integration of CEFCO stores, and adverse weather conditions in February. Despite these challenges, the positive performance metrics and strategic growth initiatives suggest an overall positive sentiment.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
Casey's achieved a record diluted earnings per share of $14.64, a 9% increase from the prior year, and generated a record $547 million in net income, with $1.2 billion in EBITDA, up 13% year-over-year.
Significant Store Growth
Fiscal 2025 marked the largest store growth year in Casey's history, with 35 new builds and 235 units acquired, including the acquisition of 198 CEFCO convenience stores from Fikes Wholesale.
Strong Inside Sales and Margin Expansion
Total inside sales grew 10.9% with inside same-store sales up 2.6%. Inside margin expanded by 50 basis points to 41.5%.
Fuel Segment Success
Fuel gross profit increased by 11%, with total fuel gallons sold up 13% and a fuel margin averaging $0.387 per gallon.
Community Contributions
Casey's donated $6 million to communities, providing 8 million meals and numerous grants to schools and organizations.
Negative Updates
Impact of Leap Year Adjustment
The fourth quarter had one fewer operating day compared to the prior year due to the leap year, impacting results by approximately 100 basis points.
Pressure from CEFCO Integration
CEFCO stores contributed to a lower margin impact due to their existing lower-margin operations, contributing a $0.02 per gallon headwind.
February Performance Challenges
February saw challenging weather conditions, impacting sales negatively, and the leap day effect had a 300 basis point impact on February comps.
Company Guidance
During the Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Casey's General Stores Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for Fiscal Year 2026, highlighting several key metrics. Casey's expects EBITDA to grow between 10% to 12% and projects inside same-store sales growth in the range of 2% to 5%, with an inside margin of approximately 41%. Same-store fuel gallons sold are anticipated to range from negative 1% to positive 1%. The company plans to open at least 80 stores, a mix of mergers and acquisitions and new constructions, aiming for a total of 500 stores over the strategic plan period. Operating expenses are forecasted to increase by 8% to 10%. Additionally, net interest expense is expected to be around $110 million, and depreciation and amortization about $450 million. Purchases of property and equipment are projected at $600 million, and the effective tax rate is expected to be between 24% to 26%. Casey's also announced a $0.57 per share dividend, marking a 14% increase and the 26th consecutive year of dividend growth, with plans for approximately $125 million in share repurchases.

Casey's General Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Casey's General exhibits solid financial health with strong profitability and cash flow metrics, bolstered by effective cost management and operational efficiency. The company's leverage is within reasonable limits, although the rising debt warrants monitoring. Continued attention to revenue growth and capital expenditure outcomes will be crucial to sustaining financial strength.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Casey's General shows strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 7.25% over the previous period. The gross profit margin stands at a healthy 22.86%, supported by efficient cost management. Net profit margin is robust at 3.43%, reflecting solid profitability. The company also maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins at 5.00% and 7.35% respectively, indicating operational efficiency. However, the slowdown in revenue growth compared to earlier years could be a concern.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is stable with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.95, suggesting manageable leverage. The equity ratio is 42.74%, indicating a solid equity base. Return on equity (ROE) is commendable at 15.57%, showcasing effective utilization of equity. However, the increase in total debt over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Casey's General demonstrates strong cash flow performance with a free cash flow growth rate of 57.67%, driven by operational efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.96, indicating robust cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.07, highlighting effective cash management. Yet, the negative investing cash flow suggests substantial capital expenditure, which may impact cash reserves if not yielding expected returns.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue15.94B14.86B15.09B12.95B8.71B
Gross Profit3.75B3.35B3.07B2.76B2.36B
EBITDA1.20B1.06B952.46M801.24M719.24M
Net Income546.52M501.97M446.69M339.79M312.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.44B6.35B5.94B5.51B4.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments326.66M206.48M378.87M158.88M336.55M
Total Debt2.96B1.64B1.67B1.69B1.36B
Total Liabilities4.93B3.33B3.28B3.26B2.53B
Stockholders Equity3.51B3.02B2.66B2.24B1.93B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow584.63M370.95M405.38M462.27M362.84M
Operating Cash Flow1.09B892.95M881.95M788.74M804.09M
Investing Cash Flow-1.73B-825.36M-545.03M-1.16B-444.34M
Financing Cash Flow755.99M-239.98M-116.93M191.59M-101.48M

Casey's General Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price498.18
Price Trends
50DMA
513.06
Negative
100DMA
487.05
Positive
200DMA
449.53
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-4.59
Positive
RSI
40.72
Neutral
STOCH
37.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CASY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 498.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 506.19, below the 50-day MA of 513.06, and above the 200-day MA of 449.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CASY.

Casey's General Risk Analysis

Casey's General disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Casey's General reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Casey's General Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$32.60B30.2645.34%1.50%2.96%-2.02%
79
Outperform
$16.76B14.6137.37%2.08%2.70%4.58%
77
Outperform
$18.52B34.0316.75%0.42%7.25%9.12%
70
Outperform
$15.74B18.2030.21%4.91%-3.23%-28.11%
67
Neutral
$19.65B23.4717.50%2.90%2.65%-32.91%
61
Neutral
$17.96B13.14-5.29%3.00%1.25%-13.95%
59
Neutral
$7.19B15.4267.31%0.54%-7.95%-2.60%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CASY
Casey's General
498.18
126.09
33.89%
BBY
Best Buy Co
77.05
-16.96
-18.04%
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods
222.03
18.63
9.16%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
141.25
10.20
7.78%
MUSA
Murphy USA
373.64
-132.24
-26.14%
TSCO
Tractor Supply
60.64
7.40
13.90%

Casey's General Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Casey’s General Approves Executive Incentives and Equity Awards
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Casey’s General Stores’ Compensation and Human Capital Committee approved significant fiscal measures for its executives, including 2025 fiscal year incentive payouts and 2026 long-term equity awards. The company reported a strong financial performance for the fiscal year ending April 30, 2025, with a 9% increase in diluted EPS and a record net income of $546.5 million. The company also expanded its store count significantly, acquiring 270 stores, including 198 CEFCO locations, and increased its quarterly dividend by 14%.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 18, 2025