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Casey's General
(NASDAQ:CASY)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$932.00
▲(23.49% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/25/26
CASY scores well primarily due to strong financial performance (growth, margin improvement, and rising free cash flow) and a supportive earnings outlook with positive FY27 guidance and continued capital returns. Technicals are moderately favorable with price above key moving averages and positive MACD. The main constraint on the score is valuation (high P/E and low dividend yield), alongside noted risks around operating expense pressure and potential earnings-quality volatility.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Casey’s has materially improved cash generation over the cycle: operating cash flow and free cash flow rose sharply to ~$1.38B and ~$722M in 2026. Durable cash conversion funds growth, store investment, buybacks and dividends, supporting financial flexibility through cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated operating expense growth
Sustained higher operating costs—driven by wage inflation, credit card fees, new unit scale and performance pay—compress margins unless offset by stronger inside sales or productivity gains. Persistent OpEx pressure can reduce free cash flow expansion and raise execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Casey’s has materially improved cash generation over the cycle: operating cash flow and free cash flow rose sharply to ~$1.38B and ~$722M in 2026. Durable cash conversion funds growth, store investment, buybacks and dividends, supporting financial flexibility through cycles.
Read all positive factors
Casey's General Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCasey's General (CASY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$29.87B
Dividend Yield0.39%
Average Volume (3M)676.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.6
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth10.16%
EPS Growth30.86%
CountryUS
Employees49,272
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)19.28
Shares Outstanding37,004,913
10 Day Avg. Volume706,486
30 Day Avg. Volume676,841
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.38
Price to Book (P/B)7.71
Price to Sales (P/S)1.74
P/FCF Ratio42.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$944.25Price Target Upside25.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)21.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.52B
Casey's General Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Casey's General Stores, Inc. engages in the provision of management and operation of convenience stores and gasoline stations. It provides self-service gasoline, a wide selection of grocery items, and an array of freshly prepared food items. The f...
How the Company Makes Money
Casey’s makes money primarily through a combination of (1) retail fuel sales and (2) inside-store sales, with an additional contribution from (3) prepared food and dispensed beverages. Fuel: The company sells gasoline and other motor fuels at its ...
Casey's General Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 09, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong, broad-based financial and operational results — record EPS, EBITDA and free cash flow, meaningful inside-store and fuel momentum, successful product rollouts, disciplined balance sheet and an aggressive replenishment of capital returns and buybacks. Near-term headwinds include elevated operating expense growth, remodel cadence noise, sensitivity to fuel and commodity volatility, and tougher comps in late FY'27. Overall, positives materially outweigh the risks discussed.Positive Updates
Record Annual Profitability
Diluted earnings per share reached a record $19.16 and net income was $714 million for fiscal 2026, each up 31% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Rising Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses rose 10.1% in Q4 (up $67 million); contributors include operating 40 more stores (~2% of increase), same-store employee expense (~1.5%) from higher labor rates, higher credit card fees (~1%), and elevated performance-based compensation and discretionary charitable contributions (~4%).
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Profitability
Diluted earnings per share reached a record $19.16 and net income was $714 million for fiscal 2026, each up 31% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Casey’s FY‑27 guidance calls for inside same‑store sales up 2%–5% with inside margin above 42%, same‑store fuel gallons roughly flat (−1% to +1%), and total operating expenses up about 5%–7%; the company expects EBITDA to increase 8%–10% (implying ~35% on a 2‑year stack at the midpoint), plans to open at least 120 stores (even M&A/new‑build mix), anticipates ~ $200M in share repurchases, net interest expense of ~ $95M, D&A of ~ $490M, PP&E spend of ~ $800M (including CEFCO conversions), and a tax rate of ~24%–26%. Management noted the EBITDA outlook is modeled on a mid‑$0.40s per‑gallon fuel margin, said May trends were consistent with the annual guidance, current cheese costs are modestly favorable, and Q1 operating expense is expected to be up high‑single digits (partly from higher credit card fees).Casey's General Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.56B | 15.94B | 14.86B | 15.09B | 12.95B |
| Gross Profit | 4.32B | 3.75B | 3.35B | 3.07B | 2.76B |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 1.21B | 1.07B | 960.29M | 801.29M |
| Net Income | 714.45M | 546.52M | 501.97M | 446.69M | 339.79M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.94B | 8.44B | 6.35B | 5.94B | 5.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 522.99M | 326.66M | 206.48M | 378.87M | 158.88M |
| Total Debt | 2.89B | 2.96B | 1.75B | 1.67B | 1.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.98B | 4.93B | 3.33B | 3.28B | 3.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.95B | 3.51B | 3.02B | 2.66B | 2.24B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 721.62M | 584.63M | 370.95M | 405.38M | 462.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.38B | 1.09B | 892.95M | 881.95M | 788.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -755.43M | -1.73B | -825.36M | -545.03M | -1.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -425.78M | 755.99M | -239.98M | -116.93M | 191.59M |
Casey's General Technical Analysis
Positive
754.72
Price Trends
821.73
Negative
761.99
Positive
664.61
Positive
Market Momentum
-5.72
Positive
47.74
Neutral
51.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CASY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 754.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 823.24, below the 50-day MA of 821.73, and above the 200-day MA of 664.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CASY.
Casey's General Risk Analysis
Casey's General disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Casey's General reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Casey's General Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $29.87B | 41.60 | 18.73% | 0.39% | 10.16% | 30.86% | |
67 Neutral | $16.44B | 14.55 | 40.05% | 5.46% | 0.99% | 31.91% | |
64 Neutral | $10.40B | 19.68 | 89.51% | 0.53% | -1.25% | 21.59% | |
62 Neutral | $15.85B | 14.92 | 42.57% | 1.80% | 4.64% | 1.15% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $20.50B | 20.76 | 18.08% | 2.33% | 41.22% | -25.28% | |
51 Neutral | $17.71B | 292.43 | 1.31% | 3.33% | 4.79% | -92.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CASY
Casey's General
801.99
291.65
57.15%
BBY
Best Buy Co
78.72
10.30
15.05%
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods
223.13
20.18
9.94%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
128.67
6.37
5.21%
MUSA
Murphy USA
575.64
164.71
40.08%
TSCO
Tractor Supply
30.43
-25.18
-45.28%
Casey's General Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Casey’s Investor Day Highlights Convenience QSR Growth Strategy
Positive
Jun 24, 2026
Casey’s General Stores, Inc., a leading U.S. convenience store and quick-service hybrid operator with about 3,000 company-owned locations concentrated in smaller towns, showcased its scale, differentiated prepared food offerings and vertical...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Casey’s General Enhances Governance and Executive Compensation Framework
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
On June 3–4, 2026, Casey’s board and its Compensation and Human Capital Committee approved significant changes to executive pay, governance, and capital allocation following a record fiscal 2026 in which diluted EPS rose 30.9% to $19.1...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Casey’s General Adds Veteran Finance Leader to Board
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Casey’s General Stores expanded its board from eleven to twelve directors and appointed veteran finance executive Stanley J. Sutula III as a director and Audit Committee member, with his election to be considered at the Sept...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.