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Vail Resorts (MTN)
NYSE:MTN
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Vail Resorts
(NYSE:MTN)
67Neutral
Positive Factors
Resource Efficiency
The resource efficiency efforts are on track, with $100M net savings expected by the end of FY26.
Snowfall Impact
Strong snowfall in Vail's Rockies/Western resorts is driving greater visibility to the achievability of FY25 guidance.
Strategic Investments
The strategic investments in guest experience, talent, and technology position MTN for the next phase of growth.
Negative Factors
Cost and Climate Risks
Fears concerning the cost of travel/skiing, increasing maturity in N.A. pass sales, and secular climate change risk continue to weigh on MTN's multiple.
Pass Sales Concerns
Pass units through the first deadline are down again, reinforcing existing investor concerns related to the growth outlook.
Visitation Trends
Overall March visitation was down -6% Y/Y, which after adjusting for Leap Year, is consistent with February trends.
Vail Resorts (MTN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.32B
Dividend Yield6.32%
Average Volume (3M)724.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.9
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth3.57%
EPS Growth13.75%
CountryUS
Employees7,600
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength59
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.56
Shares Outstanding37,337,967
10 Day Avg. Volume854,559
30 Day Avg. Volume724,439
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.08
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)5.30
P/FCF Ratio5.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.42
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$164.50Price Target Upside17.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVail Resorts, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. It operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in the ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. The Lodging segment owns and/or manages various luxury hotels and condominiums, and other lodging properties under the RockResorts brand; various condominiums located in proximity to the company's mountain resorts; destination resorts; and golf courses, as well as offers resort ground transportation services. This segment operates owned and managed hotel and condominium units. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyVail Resorts generates revenue primarily through its mountain segment, which includes lift ticket sales, ski school services, and equipment rentals. The company also earns significant income from its lodging segment, encompassing hotel stays, condominium rentals, and other hospitality services within and around its resort locations. Additionally, Vail Resorts capitalizes on retail and dining operations located on-site at its resorts. Season pass sales, such as the Epic Pass, provide a consistent revenue stream and help stabilize earnings by encouraging repeat visits and customer loyalty. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships with other ski areas and related businesses further enhance Vail Resorts' revenue potential by expanding its portfolio and market reach.
Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vail Resorts demonstrates strong profitability with a solid net profit margin and efficient cash flow management. However, the decline in EBITDA margin and high leverage pose potential risks. Overall, the company's financial health is robust but requires improvement in cost management and debt reduction.Income Statement
Vail Resorts exhibits strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 57.35% and a net profit margin of 8.80% in the TTM. The revenue growth rate showed a modest increase of 2.10% compared to the previous annual period, indicating stable growth. The EBIT margin stands at 19.30%, reflecting efficient operational management. However, a decline in EBITDA margin from 27.96% (2023) to 15.42% (TTM) suggests a need for improved cost management.80
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.54 TTM, highlighting significant leverage that could pose risks in economic downturns. The equity ratio of 9.60% indicates limited equity financing. Return on equity has decreased to 48.87% TTM from 37.72% the previous year, signaling strong returns on shareholder investment despite high leverage.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Vail Resorts demonstrates robust cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 5.79% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.41 TTM reflects efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.53 TTM indicates a strong ability to convert net income into free cash flow, supporting future investment and debt servicing needs.75
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 2.89B | 2.89B | 2.53B | 1.91B | 1.96B | Gross Profit |
| 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.18B | 830.04M | 776.02M | EBIT |
| 491.43M | 505.10M | 428.56M | 261.02M | 223.39M | EBITDA |
| 783.43M | 831.66M | 831.93M | 533.05M | 500.42M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 230.41M | 268.15M | 347.92M | 127.85M | 98.83M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 322.83M | 562.98M | 1.11B | 1.24B | 390.98M | Total Assets |
| 5.70B | 5.95B | 6.32B | 6.25B | 5.24B | Total Debt |
| 3.04B | 3.03B | 2.94B | 3.08B | 2.71B | Net Debt |
| 2.72B | 2.46B | 1.84B | 1.83B | 2.32B | Total Liabilities |
| 4.66B | 4.61B | 4.47B | 4.42B | 3.71B | Stockholders Equity |
| 723.54M | 1.00B | 1.61B | 1.59B | 1.32B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 375.58M | 324.65M | 517.68M | 410.15M | 222.62M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 586.77M | 639.56M | 710.50M | 525.25M | 394.95M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -241.07M | -273.17M | -347.92M | -103.33M | -492.74M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -574.79M | -915.71M | -493.14M | 434.66M | 376.23M |
Vail Resorts Technical Analysis
Neutral
140.52
Price Trends
150.46
Negative
162.60
Negative
167.13
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.42
Negative
44.48
Neutral
67.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 140.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 139.50, below the 50-day MA of 150.46, and below the 200-day MA of 167.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MTN.
Vail Resorts Risk Analysis
Vail Resorts disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vail Resorts reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vail Resorts Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $8.70B | 14.32 | 21.38% | ― | 2.76% | -14.31% | |
72 Outperform | $1.72B | 24.72 | 14.24% | ― | -3.87% | 60.57% | |
70 Outperform | $3.57B | 83.46 | 1.90% | ― | 18.40% | -84.43% | |
67 Neutral | $5.32B | 20.91 | 38.12% | 6.32% | 3.57% | 13.75% | |
67 Neutral | $8.76B | 18.95 | -51.73% | 1.21% | 9.13% | -30.00% | |
61 Neutral | $6.65B | 11.64 | 3.00% | 3.98% | 2.61% | -21.41% | |
58 Neutral | $2.06B | 10.59 | 9.04% | 5.20% | 5.08% | -10.62% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MTN
Vail Resorts
140.52
-47.65
-25.32%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
59.61
-34.20
-36.46%
MGM
MGM Resorts
31.97
-9.04
-22.04%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
82.49
-14.28
-14.76%
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
38.96
-4.99
-11.35%
PLYA
Playa Hotels & Resorts
13.43
4.00
42.42%
Vail Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: -7.25%|
Next Earnings Date:Jun 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mix of positive financial growth and strategic progress, such as EBITDA growth and liquidity position. However, challenges like the decline in visitation and specific issues like the Park City strike present areas of concern. The company remains optimistic about future improvements and strategic plans, despite current operational challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
EBITDA Growth
Resort reported EBITDA increased by 8% compared to the prior year, indicating strong execution by teams across all Mountain Resorts.
Net Income Increase
Net income attributable to Vail Resorts was $245.5 million, or $6.56 per diluted share, compared to $219.3 million, or $5.76 per diluted share, in the same period in the prior year.
Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan on Track
Vail Resorts is on track to achieve its two-year Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan, aiming for $100 million in annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal 2026.
Strong Liquidity Position
As of January 31, 2025, the company's total liquidity was approximately $1.7 billion, including $488 million of cash on hand.
Dividend and Share Repurchases
Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share and repurchased approximately 0.1 million shares for $20 million.
Negative Updates
Visitation Decline
Total skier visits were down 2.5% compared to the previous year, impacted by industry demand normalization and shifts in guest visitation patterns.
Retail and Rental Revenue Decline
Combined retail and rental revenue for North American Resort and ski area locations was down 2.9% compared to the prior year period.
Park City Union Strike Impact
The 13-day union strike at Park City Mountain negatively affected guest experiences, which the company acknowledged and addressed with credits for affected guests.
Destination Visitation Lag
Destination guest visitation at Western North American destination Mountain Resorts was below prior year levels due to shifts in historical visitation patterns.
Company Guidance
During the Vail Resorts Fiscal Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported an 8% growth in resort reported EBITDA compared to the previous year, reaching $459.7 million for the quarter. This figure included $2.9 million in one-time costs related to the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan and $0.1 million in acquisition and integration-related expenses. Net income attributable to Vail Resorts increased to $245.5 million, or $6.56 per diluted share, from $219.3 million, or $5.76 per diluted share, in the previous year. Season-to-date, total skier visits declined by 2.5% compared to the same period in fiscal 2024, while total lift ticket revenue grew by 4.1%. Ancillary revenue saw mixed results, with ski school and dining revenue up 3% and 3.1%, respectively, and combined retail and rental revenue down 2.9%. The company maintained its fiscal 2025 resort reported EBITDA guidance midpoint, excluding a $7 million negative impact from foreign currency changes, and expects net income for the full fiscal year to range between $257 million and $309 million. Additionally, Vail Resorts announced a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share.Vail Resorts Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vail Resorts Reports Mixed Ski Season Metrics
Neutral
Apr 24, 2025
On April 24, 2025, Vail Resorts reported ski season metrics for the period ending April 20, 2025, showing a 3.1% decline in skier visits compared to the previous year. Despite this, lift ticket revenue increased by 3.4%, driven by season pass sales, while ski school and dining revenues also saw growth. CEO Kirsten Lynch highlighted the stability provided by the season pass program and the company’s strategic business model. However, the company expects its fiscal 2025 Resort Reported EBITDA to be in the lower half of its guidance range due to lower than expected lift ticket visitation in the spring. Vail Resorts is focusing on its Resource Efficiency Transformation plan and cost discipline to mitigate these impacts.
Spark’s Take on MTN Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MTN is a Neutral.
Vail Resorts exhibits robust financial performance with strong profitability and cash flow management, tempered by high leverage. The stock’s technical indicators suggest potential further downside, but valuation metrics and a high dividend yield offer some cushion. Positive corporate events and earnings call outcomes reflect strategic initiatives to strengthen financial health. Overall, the stock is moderately attractive, with key areas for improvement in cost management and market conditions.
To see Spark’s full report on MTN stock, click here.
Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Vail Resorts Engages Stakeholders at 2025 Investor Conference
Neutral
Mar 19, 2025
On March 19, 2025, Vail Resorts’ management team participated in investor meetings during the company’s 2025 investors’ conference. The company made its investor presentation available on its website, indicating its commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, which may influence investor perceptions and market positioning.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.