Vail Resorts (MTN)
NYSE:MTN
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Vail Resorts
(NYSE:MTN)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$134.00
▲(4.79% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score reflects a mix of strong valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and resilient operating margins, offset by meaningful balance-sheet risk from extremely high leverage and weakening free cash flow. Technicals are also a headwind with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD. The latest earnings call adds near-term uncertainty due to weather-driven guidance pressure, partially mitigated by cost-savings execution and solid liquidity.
Positive Factors
Large, growing pass base
A large, rising pass base creates durable demand and advances cash collection, reducing reliance on in-season traffic. With ~75% of visits from pass holders and multi-year growth, revenue timing and predictability improve, cushioning the business from some seasonal variability and aiding planning.
Negative Factors
High leverage and equity erosion
Elevated leverage and a diminished equity cushion amplify financial risk and reduce strategic optionality. High debt loads increase interest exposure and constrain capital allocation in downturns, making the company more vulnerable to cyclical shocks or sustained visitation weakness.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large, growing pass base
A large, rising pass base creates durable demand and advances cash collection, reducing reliance on in-season traffic. With ~75% of visits from pass holders and multi-year growth, revenue timing and predictability improve, cushioning the business from some seasonal variability and aiding planning.
Read all positive factors
Vail Resorts (MTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.56B
Dividend Yield6.27%
Average Volume (3M)904.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth3.06%
EPS Growth12.82%
CountryUS
Employees7,600
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.87
Shares Outstanding35,633,053
10 Day Avg. Volume616,001
30 Day Avg. Volume904,680
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)13.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.88
P/FCF Ratio17.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$160.30Price Target Upside25.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)5.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.88B
Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vail Resorts, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. It operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates 37 destination mountain resorts...
How the Company Makes Money
Vail Resorts generates revenue primarily by monetizing access to its ski mountains and capturing on-resort guest spending tied to those visits.
1) Lift access products (tickets and passes): A major revenue stream comes from lift access, including...
Vail Resorts Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue By Segment
Analyzes net revenue generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which areas drive the company's income and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Analyzes net revenue generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which areas drive the company's income and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVail Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 09, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced message: the company faced significant, atypical weather-driven headwinds that materially reduced visitation, lift revenue and resort EBITDA and required lowering full-year guidance. At the same time, management highlighted meaningful positives — a large and growing pass base (≈75% of visits), early traction on new products and pricing, record guest satisfaction, stronger-than-expected cost savings from the transformation plan, and a healthy balance sheet and liquidity position. Given the magnitude of the weather-related financial impacts but also the clear operational and strategic progress and capital strength, the tone is cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Large and Growing Pass Base Provides Stability
Pass units have grown ~55% over the past 5 years and pass holders now represent ~75% of annual visitation, with pass sales up ~3% heading into the season—providing material revenue stability despite weather volatility.
Negative Updates
Unprecedented Rocky Mountain Weather
Rockies snowfall was dramatically below normal (reported ~43% year-over-year decline in Q2; company also noted Rockies snowfall is ~40% lower than fiscal 2012) and February was ~9°F warmer than average—resulting in constrained terrain (only ~70%–80% of acres opened through end of February at Colorado/Utah resorts).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Large and Growing Pass Base Provides Stability
Pass units have grown ~55% over the past 5 years and pass holders now represent ~75% of annual visitation, with pass sales up ~3% heading into the season—providing material revenue stability despite weather volatility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vail narrowed fiscal 2026 guidance, now expecting net income attributable to Vail Resorts of $144 million to $190 million and resort reported EBITDA of $745 million to $775 million, with cash taxes of about $95 million to $105 million; management noted greater variability in the range given unprecedented Rocky Mountain conditions and assumes the rest of the season is consistent with current North American levels. The downgrade was driven by severe weather — Rockies snowfall down ~43% year‑over‑year (≈40% below fiscal 2012), February ~9°F warmer than average, only ~70%–80% of acres opened in Colorado/Utah through end of February — and season‑to‑date metrics (skier visitation down ~12%, lift revenue down ~4%, Q2 net revenue ~‑5%, Q2 resort EBITDA ~‑8%, committed pass visitation ~‑14% vs non‑pass lift ticket visitation ~‑6%). Despite the hit, Vail expects to exceed its Resource Efficiency Transformation $100M annualized savings target by about $6M (≈$106M) and to deliver roughly $42M of incremental FY‑26 savings before about $15M of one‑time operating expenses. Liquidity and capital priorities remain intact: liquidity of ~ $1.1 billion, net leverage ~3.1x trailing‑12‑month EBITDA, retirement of $525M convertible debt and credit extension to 2031; reaffirmed core CapEx $215M–$220M (total CapEx $234M–$239M), quarterly dividend maintained at $2.22/share, and opportunistic buybacks (0.3M shares for $45M YTD); pass metrics remain a stabilizer with pass units up ~55% over five years, pass holders ~75% of annual visitation and pass sales ~+3% heading into the season.Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.92B | 2.96B | 2.89B | 2.89B | 2.53B | 1.91B |
| Gross Profit | 1.73B | 1.27B | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.18B | 830.04M |
| EBITDA | 1.08B | 870.46M | 783.43M | 795.04M | 857.74M | 529.17M |
| Net Income | 230.55M | 280.00M | 231.10M | 265.82M | 347.92M | 127.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.60B | 5.78B | 5.70B | 5.95B | 6.32B | 6.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 384.74M | 440.29M | 322.83M | 562.98M | 1.11B | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 3.18B | 3.44B | 3.04B | 3.03B | 2.94B | 3.08B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.96B | 5.02B | 4.66B | 4.61B | 4.47B | 4.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 301.82M | 424.50M | 723.54M | 1.00B | 1.61B | 1.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 286.29M | 319.68M | 375.58M | 324.65M | 517.68M | 410.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 522.04M | 554.87M | 586.77M | 639.56M | 710.50M | 525.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -222.48M | -204.50M | -241.07M | -273.17M | -347.92M | -103.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -433.06M | -242.65M | -574.79M | -915.71M | -493.14M | 434.66M |
Vail Resorts Technical Analysis
Negative
127.87
Price Trends
133.03
Negative
135.51
Negative
141.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.39
Negative
44.67
Neutral
48.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 127.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 129.91, below the 50-day MA of 133.03, and below the 200-day MA of 141.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MTN.
Vail Resorts Risk Analysis
Vail Resorts disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vail Resorts reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vail Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.53B | 3.78 | 91.87% | 0.84% | 5.91% | 336.91% | |
62 Neutral | $9.55B | 46.86 | 7.55% | ― | 0.05% | -94.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $4.56B | 5.69 | 51.86% | 6.27% | 3.06% | 12.82% | |
59 Neutral | $6.10B | 21.23 | 36.68% | 0.38% | 7.97% | -0.14% | |
57 Neutral | $2.20B | 16.39 | -13.94% | ― | 11.32% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $10.94B | 38.12 | -90.44% | 0.80% | -0.26% | -44.45% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MTN
Vail Resorts
127.87
-5.70
-4.27%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
86.50
22.43
35.01%
CHDN
Churchill Downs
87.48
-13.75
-13.58%
MLCO
Melco Resorts & Entertainment
5.63
0.71
14.43%
MGM
MGM Resorts
37.32
7.70
26.00%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
104.00
31.13
42.71%
Vail Resorts Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vail Resorts Shares Updated Outlook at Investor Conference
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Vail Resorts’ management team held meetings with investors as part of the company’s 2026 investors’ conference, underscoring ongoing engagement with the financial community. In connection with these meetings, t...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Vail Resorts Amends Credit Agreement, Extends Loan Maturities
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Vail Holdings, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Vail Resorts, and its subsidiaries amended and restated their existing credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders led by Bank of America. The revision consolidates the prior ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vail Resorts Reports Weaker Early-Season Metrics, Cuts Outlook
Negative
Jan 15, 2026
On January 15, 2026, Vail Resorts reported season‑to‑date ski metrics for its North American destination resorts and regional ski areas for the period ended January 4, 2026, showing a 20% decline in skier visits compared with the prior...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.