Vail Resorts (MTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.08B
• Dividend Yield: 6.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 785.20K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 3.06%
• EPS Growth: 12.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,600
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): -5.20
• Shares Outstanding: 35,775,574
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 712,808
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 785,196
• PEG Ratio: 0.83
• Price to Book (P/B): 13.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.13
• 1Y Price Target: $161.50
• Price Target Upside: 13.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $152.00 ▲(6.42% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/13/26

The score is driven primarily by solid operating performance and revenue growth, offset by high leverage and only moderate cash conversion. Valuation is supported by a high dividend yield, while technical signals are mixed with a negative MACD and price below longer-term averages. Recent updates are balanced: financing improvements help, but early-season weakness and an outlook cut weigh on near-term expectations.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth and margins

Sustained double‑digit top‑line growth and healthy gross margins indicate durable demand for resort products and effective cost management. These margins provide operating leverage across seasons, supporting reinvestment in guest experience and multi‑year returns despite cyclical seasonality.

Pass strategy and marketing effectiveness

The Epic pass model and targeted marketing increased pass dollars even as units dipped, creating more predictable recurring revenue and higher guest lifetime value. Strong marketing ROI and pricing mix strengthen structural revenue stability and reduce sensitivity to single‑season attendance swings.

Refinancing and liquidity improvements

Extending loan maturities and reducing spreads meaningfully lowers refinancing risk and interest expense over multiple years. Combined with reported $1.5B liquidity, this enhances financial flexibility to fund capex, repurchases and multiyear investments without forcing counter‑cyclical asset sales.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Very high leverage increases interest rate and refinancing sensitivity and reduces headroom for operational shocks. In a capital‑intensive, seasonal business, elevated debt amplifies downside during weak seasons and constrains optionality for strategic investments or weather‑related recovery actions.

Weather‑driven visitation volatility

Large shortfalls in skier visits from adverse snow materially reduce lift, ancillary and lodging revenues in a concentrated period. Weather volatility is structural for outdoor resort operators and can depress annual EBITDA, stressing margins and cashflow despite geographic diversification.

Moderate cash conversion

Only moderate conversion of accounting earnings into operating and free cash flow limits capacity to service high debt and fund planned capital investments. In downturns this weakens liquidity resilience and increases reliance on external financing or covenant relief to bridge seasonal shortfalls.

Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vail Resorts, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. It operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in the ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. The Lodging segment owns and/or manages various luxury hotels and condominiums, and other lodging properties under the RockResorts brand; various condominiums located in proximity to the company's mountain resorts; destination resorts; and golf courses, as well as offers resort ground transportation services. This segment operates owned and managed hotel and condominium units. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Vail Resorts generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is from lift ticket sales, which provide access to the ski slopes and are a significant driver of earnings during the winter season. The company also earns revenue from ski school lessons, equipment rentals, and retail sales within its resorts. Additionally, Vail Resorts operates lodging facilities, generating income from accommodations, dining, and event services. The company has embraced a season pass strategy, offering multi-resort passes that encourage repeat visits and provide a stable revenue base. Furthermore, Vail Resorts benefits from strategic partnerships with travel and tourism companies, as well as sponsorships that enhance its brand visibility and market reach.

Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (36.2% TTM) and solid profitability (51.7% gross margin; 9.4% net margin) support the score, but high leverage (debt-to-equity 8.11 and low equity ratio) and only moderate cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income 0.33) temper overall financial strength.

Income Statement

Vail Resorts shows strong revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 36.2%, indicating robust demand. The gross profit margin of 51.7% and net profit margin of 9.4% reflect solid profitability, although slightly lower than the previous annual report. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, suggesting efficient operations. However, the decline in gross profit margin from the previous year indicates potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high at 8.11, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is strong at 48.8%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is low, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing, which may impact financial stability.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow growth is positive at 10.28% TTM, showing improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.33, indicating moderate cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.58 suggests a reasonable level of cash flow relative to earnings, but there is room for improvement in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Jul 2025	Jul 2024	Jul 2023	Jul 2022	Jul 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.98B	2.96B	2.89B	2.89B	2.53B	1.91B
Gross Profit	1.27B	1.27B	1.23B	1.22B	1.18B	830.04M
EBITDA	863.89M	870.46M	783.43M	795.04M	857.74M	529.17M
Net Income	266.09M	280.00M	231.10M	265.82M	347.92M	127.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.76B	5.78B	5.70B	5.95B	6.32B	6.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	581.47M	440.29M	322.83M	562.98M	1.11B	1.24B
Total Debt	3.42B	3.44B	3.04B	3.03B	2.94B	3.08B
Total Liabilities	5.30B	5.02B	4.66B	4.61B	4.47B	4.42B
Stockholders Equity	156.46M	424.50M	723.54M	1.00B	1.61B	1.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	352.54M	319.68M	375.58M	324.65M	517.68M	410.15M
Operating Cash Flow	588.39M	554.87M	586.77M	639.56M	710.50M	525.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-205.16M	-204.50M	-241.07M	-273.17M	-347.92M	-103.33M
Financing Cash Flow	-211.33M	-242.65M	-574.79M	-915.71M	-493.14M	434.66M

Vail Resorts Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 142.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 142.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 136.88, above the 50-day MA of 140.10, and below the 200-day MA of 145.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTN.

Vail Resorts Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BYD	77 Outperform	$6.62B	3.76	87.98%	0.84%	5.91%	336.91%
CHDN	73 Outperform	$6.32B	16.52	37.56%	0.38%	7.97%	-0.14%
MTN	66 Neutral	$5.08B	20.82	88.61%	6.27%	3.06%	12.82%
MGM	62 Neutral	$9.51B	48.27	7.74%	―	0.05%	-94.07%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WYNN	53 Neutral	$12.09B	37.04	―	0.80%	-0.26%	-44.45%
MLCO	44 Neutral	$2.20B	12.65	―	―	11.32%	―

Vail Resorts Corporate Events

Vail Resorts Amends Credit Agreement, Extends Loan Maturities

On February 9, 2026, Vail Holdings, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Vail Resorts, and its subsidiaries amended and restated their existing credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders led by Bank of America. The revision consolidates the prior term loan and delayed draw term loan into a new $1.275 billion senior term loan facility, extending both revolver and term loan maturities to the earlier of five years from closing or 90 days before the company’s 2030 senior notes mature.

The Tenth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement also lowers borrowing costs by adjusting the leverage-based pricing grid and removing a 0.10% credit spread adjustment tied to certain reference rate loans. The changes are expected to strengthen Vail Resorts’ capital structure by lengthening debt maturities and reducing interest expense, which could provide greater financial flexibility for operations and investment across its resort portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Sell with a $140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts Reports Weaker Early-Season Metrics, Cuts Outlook

On January 15, 2026, Vail Resorts reported season‑to‑date ski metrics for its North American destination resorts and regional ski areas for the period ended January 4, 2026, showing a 20% decline in skier visits compared with the prior-year period, along with drops of 1.8% in lift revenue, 14.9% in ski school revenue, 15.9% in dining revenue and 6% in retail/rental revenue. Chief Executive Rob Katz attributed the weaker performance to one of the worst early season snowfall patterns in over 30 years in the western U.S., which sharply limited available terrain—particularly in the Rockies and Tahoe—although stronger early conditions in the eastern U.S. partially offset the impact, and he indicated that, given these conditions, the company now expects full‑year Resort Reported EBITDA to come in just below the low end of its previously issued fiscal 2026 guidance range, underscoring how weather volatility is pressuring near-term financial performance while reinforcing the strategic importance of Vail’s geographically diversified resort network and advance commitment model for guests and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts Holds Annual Meeting, Elects Directors

On December 9, 2025, Vail Resorts held its Annual Meeting where stockholders elected nine director nominees, ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending July 31, 2026, and approved executive compensation on an advisory basis. These decisions reflect the company’s commitment to maintaining strong governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its operational stability and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Sell with a $145.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts Appoints New Chief Revenue Officer

On November 21, 2025, Vail Resorts announced the appointment of Celeste Burgoyne as Executive Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer, effective January 26, 2026. Burgoyne, who previously held a leadership role at lululemon, is expected to drive growth and enhance the guest experience at Vail Resorts. Her extensive experience in customer engagement and brand expansion is anticipated to play a crucial role in the company’s strategic initiatives to boost revenue and strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Hold with a $169.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.