Vail Resorts (MTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.12B
• Dividend Yield: 5.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 896.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 2.38%
• EPS Growth: 6.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,600
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 10.54
• Shares Outstanding: 37,152,405
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 524,157
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 896,907
• PEG Ratio: -1.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 28.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.36
• 1Y Price Target: $180.11
• Price Target Upside: 8.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $174.00 ▲(4.64%Upside)

Vail Resorts' strong financial performance and reasonable valuation are key strengths, supported by strategic financial management and ongoing transformation plans. However, challenges in visitation and rising debt levels warrant careful monitoring.

Positive Factors

Leadership Change

Rob Katz will be reappointed CEO of the company, replacing Kirsten Lynch, which could re-engage stakeholders.

Marketing Strategy

Improving marketing strategies and leveraging social media, ski influencers, and AI are top priorities to boost revenue growth.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

Vail Resorts reiterated the lower half of their FY Resort EBITDA guidance, indicating potential financial challenges.

Market Share

Industry data indicates the company lost market share this year, with skier visits down compared to industry growth.

Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vail Resorts, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. It operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in the ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. The Lodging segment owns and/or manages various luxury hotels and condominiums, and other lodging properties under the RockResorts brand; various condominiums located in proximity to the company's mountain resorts; destination resorts; and golf courses, as well as offers resort ground transportation services. This segment operates owned and managed hotel and condominium units. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Vail Resorts generates revenue through several key streams: ski lift ticket sales, including season passes like the Epic Pass, which offer unlimited access to its resorts; hospitality services, including lodging accommodations at resort-owned hotels and dining facilities; and retail and rental operations that provide ski equipment and apparel. Additionally, the company benefits from ancillary services such as ski school lessons and summer activities, diversifying its income sources. Strategic partnerships and marketing collaborations also contribute to its earnings, enhancing brand visibility and attracting a broader customer base.

Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vail Resorts exhibits solid financial health with consistent growth in revenue and profits, though rising debt levels could pose future risks. The cash flow remains strong, supporting financial flexibility, but the leverage and capital expenditures require careful monitoring.

Income Statement

Vail Resorts' income statement reveals a strong revenue growth trajectory with a notable increase from $2.53 billion in 2022 to $2.96 billion TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin stands robustly, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved from previous years, bolstered by steady growth in EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. However, the net income experienced fluctuations due to external market conditions impacting the bottom line.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable financial position with total assets at $5.76 billion TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio remains moderate, indicating manageable leverage levels, though an increase in total debt suggests potential risk if revenue growth stalls. The return on equity has shown improvement, driven by increased net income, but the equity ratio has slightly decreased, pointing to higher liabilities relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates a healthy operating cash flow, which increased to $632 million TTM. The free cash flow growth is consistent, albeit with fluctuations in capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, highlighting efficient cash management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in converting profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.96B	2.89B	2.89B	2.53B	1.91B	1.96B
Gross Profit	1.27B	1.23B	1.22B	1.18B	830.04M	776.02M
EBITDA	878.00M	783.43M	831.66M	831.93M	533.05M	500.42M
Net Income	290.09M	230.41M	268.15M	347.92M	127.85M	98.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.76B	5.70B	5.95B	6.32B	6.25B	5.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	467.03M	322.83M	562.98M	1.11B	1.24B	390.98M
Total Debt	2.95B	3.04B	3.03B	2.94B	3.08B	2.71B
Total Liabilities	4.53B	4.66B	4.61B	4.47B	4.42B	3.71B
Stockholders Equity	895.38M	723.54M	1.00B	1.61B	1.59B	1.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	396.85M	375.58M	324.65M	517.68M	410.15M	222.62M
Operating Cash Flow	632.19M	586.77M	639.56M	710.50M	525.25M	394.95M
Investing Cash Flow	-305.66M	-241.07M	-273.17M	-347.92M	-103.33M	-492.74M
Financing Cash Flow	-578.90M	-574.79M	-915.71M	-493.14M	434.66M	376.23M

Vail Resorts Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 166.28
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 166.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 157.13, above the 50-day MA of 150.99, and above the 200-day MA of 160.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.73 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTN.

Vail Resorts Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTN	71 Outperform	$6.12B	21.08	30.55%	5.39%	2.38%	6.01%
VAC	71 Outperform	$2.73B	13.55	9.43%	3.92%	4.61%	9.16%
PLYA	71 Outperform	$1.66B	26.78	11.21%	―	-9.78%	7.43%
MGM	71 Outperform	$10.21B	16.88	21.38%	―	2.76%	-14.31%
HGV	70 Outperform	$4.13B	139.68	1.90%	―	18.40%	-84.43%
WYNN	69 Neutral	$11.55B	30.15	-51.73%	0.91%	-0.08%	-48.66%
Sector *	64 Neutral	£1.70B	10.48	6.12%	260.21%	0.58%	-32.48%

Vail Resorts Corporate Events

Vail Resorts Completes $500M Senior Notes Offering

On July 2, 2025, Vail Resorts completed a private placement offering of $500 million in 5.625% Senior Notes due 2030, guaranteed by certain domestic subsidiaries. This financial move is structured under an Indenture with U.S. Bank Trust Company as Trustee, and includes various covenants and redemption options, impacting the company’s financial strategy and obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $244.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts Increases Senior Notes Offering to $500M

On June 30, 2025, Vail Resorts announced the pricing of its senior notes offering, increasing the amount to $500 million from the initially planned $400 million. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, fund the repurchase of $200 million of its outstanding shares, and address its 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026, reflecting strategic financial management aimed at strengthening its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $244.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering

On June 30, 2025, Vail Resorts announced its intention to initiate a private offering of $400 million in senior notes due 2030. The proceeds from this offering are planned to be used to repay borrowings from its revolving credit facility, fund the repurchase of $200 million in outstanding shares completed in June 2025, and address a portion of its convertible senior notes due 2026. This move is part of the company’s financial strategy to manage its debt and optimize its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $244.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts Announces CEO Transition with Rob Katz

Vail Resorts announced a leadership transition with Rob Katz returning as CEO, effective May 22, 2025, succeeding Kirsten Lynch who will remain in an advisory role until September 2025. The transition aims to continue the company’s strategic priorities and transformational initiatives, with Katz’s previous tenure as CEO marked by innovation and consistent performance. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance and reported consistent early season pass sales trends, indicating stability in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts CMO Courtney Goldstein Resigns

On May 5, 2025, Courtney K. Goldstein announced her resignation as Executive Vice President & Chief Marketing Officer of Vail Resorts, effective May 16, 2025, due to personal reasons. Her departure was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices.

Vail Resorts Reports Mixed Ski Season Metrics

On April 24, 2025, Vail Resorts reported ski season metrics for the period ending April 20, 2025, showing a 3.1% decline in skier visits compared to the previous year. Despite this, lift ticket revenue increased by 3.4%, driven by season pass sales, while ski school and dining revenues also saw growth. CEO Kirsten Lynch highlighted the stability provided by the season pass program and the company’s strategic business model. However, the company expects its fiscal 2025 Resort Reported EBITDA to be in the lower half of its guidance range due to lower than expected lift ticket visitation in the spring. Vail Resorts is focusing on its Resource Efficiency Transformation plan and cost discipline to mitigate these impacts.