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Vail Resorts
(NYSE:MTN)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$165.00
▲(13.23% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened fundamentals and balance-sheet leverage (debt-heavy profile with a thinner equity buffer) and a guidance cut tied to weather-driven demand softness. These are partly offset by a strong technical uptrend (price above all key moving averages) and shareholder return support from a high dividend yield, with cost-efficiency progress providing an additional—though not decisive—mitigant.
Positive Factors
Cost-efficiency program
The Resource Efficiency Transformation is driving structurally lower operating costs with $106M of annualized run-rate savings expected by year-end and incremental savings thereafter. Recurring efficiencies bolster margins, cash generation and resilience to cyclical demand shocks over multiple years.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thin equity cushion
A debt-heavy balance sheet with a materially reduced equity base leaves limited capital buffer. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate vulnerability, constrains strategic optionality (M&A, capex) and reduces the firm's ability to absorb prolonged demand or weather shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cost-efficiency program
The Resource Efficiency Transformation is driving structurally lower operating costs with $106M of annualized run-rate savings expected by year-end and incremental savings thereafter. Recurring efficiencies bolster margins, cash generation and resilience to cyclical demand shocks over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Vail Resorts Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue By Segment
Analyzes net revenue generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which areas drive the company's income and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Analyzes net revenue generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which areas drive the company's income and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVail Resorts (MTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.32B
Dividend Yield5.94%
Average Volume (3M)744.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.5
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth-4.29%
EPS Growth-43.57%
CountryUS
Employees6,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.33
Shares Outstanding35,633,526
10 Day Avg. Volume687,677
30 Day Avg. Volume744,361
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)13.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.88
P/FCF Ratio17.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$142.13Price Target Upside-2.47% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)6.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.99B
Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vail Resorts, Inc., operating through its various subsidiary entities, oversees a portfolio of mountain resorts and urban ski areas located across the United States. The company's business activities are structured into three distinct segments: Mo...
How the Company Makes Money
Vail Resorts primarily generates revenue from (1) lift-related products and (2) guest spending tied to its resorts and hospitality operations.
1) Lift revenue (access to slopes): The company sells lift tickets and season passes (including multi-r...
Vail Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 08, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects a mixed outlook: significant negative near-term impacts from unprecedented adverse weather led to notable declines in visitation, revenue, and EBITDA, and prompted a downward update to guidance. Offsetting these headwinds, management highlighted strong operational execution (record guest scores, full staffing), meaningful outperformance versus the broader industry on lift ticket visitation, successful product experiments (Epic Friend, super-advanced tickets, young adult pass), substantial cost savings from the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan, and a healthy balance sheet. Given the balance of material short-term financial hits and clear strategic/operational progress and mitigants, the overall sentiment is balanced.Positive Updates
Operational resilience and record guest experience
Achieved record guest experience scores with year-over-year increases at every resort in the Rockies despite severe weather. Maintained full seasonal staffing, strong seasonal employee return rates, improved employee engagement, and reduced employee injuries per labor hour.
Negative Updates
Historic weather disruption and severe snowfall shortfall
Rockies experienced the worst season on record for snowfall; snowfall finished ~55% below the 30-year average. Industry-wide visitation in the Rockies declined approximately 24%, an unprecedented severity versus prior non-COVID worst of 8% in 2012.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational resilience and record guest experience
Achieved record guest experience scores with year-over-year increases at every resort in the Rockies despite severe weather. Maintained full seasonal staffing, strong seasonal employee return rates, improved employee engagement, and reduced employee injuries per labor hour.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vail updated fiscal 2026 guidance with resort reported EBITDA now expected at $735–$755 million and net income attributable to Vail Resorts at $128–$162 million (the EBITDA midpoint implies a ~12% year‑over‑year decline and is ~14% below the original FY26 guidance), and cash taxes of $75–$85 million. Management reiterated balance‑sheet and capital plans with liquidity of about $1.1 billion, net leverage ~3.5x LTM EBITDA, core capital spending of $215–$220 million (total capex $234–$239 million), a maintained quarterly dividend of $2.22/share and ~$45 million of buybacks YTD. The company expects to exceed its two‑year Resource Efficiency Transformation target (achieving $106 million of annualized efficiencies by year‑end, plus an incremental $30 million in FY28 and ~$45 million of incremental efficiencies year‑over‑year before $13 million of one‑time costs), and cited pass and lift‑ticket trends feeding the guidance (spring pass units down ~10% and dollars including tax down ~5%, pass days sold down ~8%, North America committed visitation down ~17%, lift‑ticket visitation down ~10%, with early strength in Australia: EPIC Australia units +26% and dollars +31%).Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.83B | 2.96B | 2.89B | 2.89B | 2.53B | 1.91B |
| Gross Profit | 1.57B | 1.27B | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.18B | 830.04M |
| EBITDA | 738.94M | 870.46M | 783.43M | 795.04M | 857.74M | 529.17M |
| Net Income | 178.02M | 280.00M | 231.10M | 265.82M | 347.92M | 127.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.69B | 5.78B | 5.70B | 5.95B | 6.32B | 6.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 371.37M | 440.29M | 322.83M | 562.98M | 1.11B | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 3.26B | 3.44B | 3.04B | 3.03B | 2.94B | 3.08B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.77B | 5.02B | 4.66B | 4.61B | 4.47B | 4.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 551.73M | 424.50M | 723.54M | 1.00B | 1.61B | 1.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 237.53M | 319.68M | 375.58M | 324.65M | 517.68M | 410.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 475.11M | 554.87M | 586.77M | 639.56M | 710.50M | 525.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -227.96M | -204.50M | -241.07M | -273.17M | -347.92M | -103.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -290.37M | -242.65M | -574.79M | -915.71M | -493.14M | 434.66M |
Vail Resorts Technical Analysis
Positive
145.72
Price Trends
139.28
Positive
132.58
Positive
134.59
Positive
Market Momentum
2.93
Positive
55.84
Neutral
24.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 145.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 148.32, above the 50-day MA of 139.28, and above the 200-day MA of 134.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTN.
Vail Resorts Risk Analysis
Vail Resorts disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vail Resorts reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vail Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $6.18B | 3.74 | 70.52% | 0.87% | 1.75% | 249.96% | |
70 Outperform | $5.88B | 14.41 | 36.57% | 0.51% | 5.73% | -0.56% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $11.21B | 26.69 | 16.96% | ― | 3.19% | -8.14% | |
56 Neutral | $5.32B | 34.50 | 49.64% | 6.09% | -4.29% | -43.57% | |
54 Neutral | $2.22B | 9.86 | -17.64% | ― | 11.55% | 313.70% | |
53 Neutral | $10.31B | 27.28 | -115.50% | 1.03% | 4.72% | -8.26% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MTN
Vail Resorts
149.38
10.00
7.18%
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MGM
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WYNN
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99.31
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Vail Resorts Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Vail Resorts Adds MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle to Board
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Vail Resorts’ board of directors appointed Bill Hornbuckle, CEO and President of MGM Resorts International, as a new director, effective August 3, 2026, expanding the board from nine to ten members. Hornbuckle joins as a no...
Business Operations and Strategy
Vail Resorts Highlights Network Strength in New Podcast
Neutral
Jun 24, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Vail Resorts, Inc. announced that Chairperson and CEO Rob Katz released a new episode of his Epic by Nature podcast titled “The Strength of our Network: What It Means for Employees, Guests, and Shareholders,” availabl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.