Vail Resorts (MTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.66B
• Dividend Yield: 5.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 524.73K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 3.57%
• EPS Growth: 13.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,600
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 6.56
• Shares Outstanding: 37,337,967
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 442,590
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 524,729
• PEG Ratio: 1.60
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $164.50
• Price Target Upside: -0.09% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $162.00 ▼(-1.60%Downside)

Vail Resorts' overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, such as EBITDA growth and liquidity. However, high leverage and mixed technical indicators temper enthusiasm. The stock's attractive dividend yield supports its valuation, making it appealing for income-focused investors.

Positive Factors

Financial Stability

MTN's strong balance sheet helps support potential 'flight-to-defensive,' which could be beneficial amidst current challenges.

Leadership Change

Rob Katz will be reappointed CEO of the company, replacing Kirsten Lynch, and his return is expected to be welcomed by investors given his previous track record as CEO and stature within the industry.

Stock Performance

Shares were up more than 10% in the after-market on the news of Rob Katz's reappointment as CEO.

Negative Factors

Financial Guidance

MTN maintained its expectation for FY25 Resort EBITDA to come in at the bottom half of their guidance range, excluding one-time costs related to the CEO transition.

Market Share

Industry data suggests the company lost market share this year with NSAA reporting total skier visits were up +1.7% y/y during the '24-25 season vs. MTN reporting visits declines of -3% season-to-date.

Visitation Trends

Late season bookings are softer than expected and season-to-date visitation is down -3.5% year over year.

Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vail Resorts, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. It operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in the ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. The Lodging segment owns and/or manages various luxury hotels and condominiums, and other lodging properties under the RockResorts brand; various condominiums located in proximity to the company's mountain resorts; destination resorts; and golf courses, as well as offers resort ground transportation services. This segment operates owned and managed hotel and condominium units. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Vail Resorts generates revenue primarily through its mountain segment, which includes lift ticket sales, ski school services, and equipment rentals. The company also earns significant income from its lodging segment, encompassing hotel stays, condominium rentals, and other hospitality services within and around its resort locations. Additionally, Vail Resorts capitalizes on retail and dining operations located on-site at its resorts. Season pass sales, such as the Epic Pass, provide a consistent revenue stream and help stabilize earnings by encouraging repeat visits and customer loyalty. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships with other ski areas and related businesses further enhance Vail Resorts' revenue potential by expanding its portfolio and market reach.

Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vail Resorts demonstrates strong profitability with a solid net profit margin and efficient cash flow management. However, the decline in EBITDA margin and high leverage pose potential risks. Overall, the company's financial health is robust but requires improvement in cost management and debt reduction.

Income Statement

Vail Resorts exhibits strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 57.35% and a net profit margin of 8.80% in the TTM. The revenue growth rate showed a modest increase of 2.10% compared to the previous annual period, indicating stable growth. The EBIT margin stands at 19.30%, reflecting efficient operational management. However, a decline in EBITDA margin from 27.96% (2023) to 15.42% (TTM) suggests a need for improved cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.54 TTM, highlighting significant leverage that could pose risks in economic downturns. The equity ratio of 9.60% indicates limited equity financing. Return on equity has decreased to 48.87% TTM from 37.72% the previous year, signaling strong returns on shareholder investment despite high leverage.

Cash Flow

Vail Resorts demonstrates robust cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 5.79% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.41 TTM reflects efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.53 TTM indicates a strong ability to convert net income into free cash flow, supporting future investment and debt servicing needs.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.95B	2.89B	2.89B	2.53B	1.91B	1.96B
	Gross Profit
1.19B	1.23B	1.22B	1.18B	830.04M	776.02M
	EBIT
568.70M	491.43M	505.10M	428.56M	261.02M	223.39M
	EBITDA
870.53M	783.43M	831.66M	831.93M	533.05M	500.42M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
259.33M	230.41M	268.15M	347.92M	127.85M	98.83M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
488.21M	322.83M	562.98M	1.11B	1.24B	390.98M
	Total Assets
5.53B	5.70B	5.95B	6.32B	6.25B	5.24B
	Total Debt
2.97B	3.04B	3.03B	2.94B	3.08B	2.71B
	Net Debt
2.48B	2.72B	2.46B	1.84B	1.83B	2.32B
	Total Liabilities
4.72B	4.66B	4.61B	4.47B	4.42B	3.71B
	Stockholders Equity
530.70M	723.54M	1.00B	1.61B	1.59B	1.32B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
397.36M	375.58M	324.65M	517.68M	410.15M	222.62M
	Operating Cash Flow
624.29M	586.77M	639.56M	710.50M	525.25M	394.95M
	Investing Cash Flow
-303.01M	-241.07M	-273.17M	-347.92M	-103.33M	-492.74M
	Financing Cash Flow
-626.36M	-574.79M	-915.71M	-493.14M	434.66M	376.23M

Vail Resorts Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 164.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 164.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 146.83, above the 50-day MA of 147.65, and below the 200-day MA of 165.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.73 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTN.

Vail Resorts Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTN	73 Outperform	$5.66B	22.21	38.12%	5.86%	3.57%	13.75%
PLYA	72 Outperform	$1.66B	26.72	11.21%	―	-9.78%	7.43%
HGV	69 Neutral	$3.57B	119.00	1.90%	―	18.40%	-84.43%
MGM	68 Neutral	$8.71B	14.24	21.38%	―	2.76%	-14.31%
VAC	68 Neutral	$2.35B	11.64	9.43%	4.56%	4.61%	9.16%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.93B	11.33	2.94%	3.90%	2.68%	-25.08%
WYNN	57 Neutral	$9.68B	25.26	-51.73%	1.08%	-0.08%	-48.66%

Vail Resorts Corporate Events

Vail Resorts CMO Courtney Goldstein Resigns

On May 5, 2025, Courtney K. Goldstein announced her resignation as Executive Vice President & Chief Marketing Officer of Vail Resorts, effective May 16, 2025, due to personal reasons. Her departure was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices.

Vail Resorts Reports Mixed Ski Season Metrics

On April 24, 2025, Vail Resorts reported ski season metrics for the period ending April 20, 2025, showing a 3.1% decline in skier visits compared to the previous year. Despite this, lift ticket revenue increased by 3.4%, driven by season pass sales, while ski school and dining revenues also saw growth. CEO Kirsten Lynch highlighted the stability provided by the season pass program and the company’s strategic business model. However, the company expects its fiscal 2025 Resort Reported EBITDA to be in the lower half of its guidance range due to lower than expected lift ticket visitation in the spring. Vail Resorts is focusing on its Resource Efficiency Transformation plan and cost discipline to mitigate these impacts.

Vail Resorts Engages Stakeholders at 2025 Investor Conference

On March 19, 2025, Vail Resorts’ management team participated in investor meetings during the company’s 2025 investors’ conference. The company made its investor presentation available on its website, indicating its commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, which may influence investor perceptions and market positioning.