Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.52B
• Dividend Yield: 4.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 679.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.41
• Revenue Growth: 4.61%
• EPS Growth: 9.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 22,300
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 74
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 1.96
• Shares Outstanding: 34,535,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 570,730
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 679,100
• PEG Ratio: -1.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.61
• 1Y Price Target: $84.33
• Price Target Upside: 18.03% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $80.00 ▲(11.97% Upside)

VAC's stock score is bolstered by strong valuation metrics and positive corporate events. Financial performance is a key area of concern due to profitability challenges and the lack of equity, while technical analysis and earnings call sentiment present mixed signals. The stock's strengths in valuation and strategic initiatives through corporate events provide a stable outlook amidst these challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

VAC reported 1Q EBITDA above consensus and estimates on better margins, indicating strong financial performance.

Revenue Initiatives

VAC raised their expectations for cost/revenue benefit, introducing a new incremental $75-$100 million revenue opportunity.

Negative Factors

Guidance Concerns

The initial guidance for 2025 is below consensus expectations, which may raise concerns about the company's future performance.

Sales Outlook

VAC lowered its 2025 contract sales outlook by 5% at the midpoint, suggesting potential challenges in sales growth.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership and related products. It operates through two segments, Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The company manages vacation ownership and related products under the Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residences by Marriott, Sheraton Vacation Club, Westin Vacation Club, Hyatt Residence Club, and Marriott Vacation Club Pulse brands. It also develops, markets, and sells vacation ownership and related products under The Ritz-Carlton Destination Club brand; and holds right to develop, market, and sell ownership residential products under The Ritz-Carlton Residences brand. In addition, the company offers exchange networks and membership programs, as well as provision of management services to other resorts and lodging properties through various brands, including Interval International, Trading Places International, Vacation Resorts International, and Aqua-Aston. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated approximately 120 properties in the United States and thirteen other countries and territories. The company sells its upscale tier vacation ownership products primarily through a network of resort-based sales centers and off-site sales locations. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of vacation ownership interests, which are often structured as timeshare agreements. The company earns money from initial sales of these ownership interests as well as from ongoing management fees and annual maintenance fees paid by timeshare owners. Additionally, VAC benefits from rental income from its resorts and properties, as well as from its exchange and rental networks, which allow owners to trade their timeshare weeks for accommodations at other resorts. The company also engages in marketing and sales operations to attract new customers and promotes upgrades to existing owners, further driving revenue. Strong brand partnerships with Marriott International and its associated brands enhance VAC's market reach and customer trust, contributing to its revenue streams.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

VAC shows impressive revenue growth, but profitability challenges persist, and the absence of stockholders' equity poses financial stability concerns. Positive free cash flow highlights efficient cash management against fluctuating income metrics.

Income Statement

The company shows a steady increase in revenue from $2.89 billion in 2020 to $4.97 billion in 2024. Gross profit margin has improved significantly with a notable jump in 2024, indicating efficiency in controlling costs. However, net income has declined from a peak in 2022, suggesting challenges in maintaining profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also fluctuated, with recent declines potentially impacting overall financial health.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio improved in 2024 due to the elimination of total debt, but the absence of stockholders' equity presents a significant risk, as it indicates potential financial instability. The company has maintained strong cash reserves, but weak equity ratios in recent years highlight potential vulnerabilities in financial structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased from $522 million in 2022 to $205 million in 2024, impacting the overall cash flow health. However, free cash flow remains positive and grew significantly in 2024, reflecting strong operational cash generation despite reduced operating cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, indicating efficient cash management despite volatility in net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.08B	4.97B	4.73B	4.66B	3.89B	2.89B
Gross Profit	2.40B	1.85B	1.82B	1.97B	1.45B	696.00M
EBITDA	549.00M	614.00M	722.00M	832.00M	609.00M	156.00M
Net Income	259.00M	218.00M	254.00M	391.00M	49.00M	-275.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.60B	9.81B	9.68B	9.64B	9.61B	8.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	205.00M	197.00M	248.00M	524.00M	342.00M	524.00M
Total Debt	0.00	5.22B	5.14B	5.03B	4.49B	4.27B
Total Liabilities	3.20B	7.37B	7.30B	7.14B	6.63B	6.22B
Stockholders Equity	0.00	2.44B	2.38B	2.50B	2.98B	2.65B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	82.00M	148.00M	114.00M	457.00M	296.00M	258.00M
Operating Cash Flow	67.00M	205.00M	232.00M	522.00M	343.00M	299.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-70.00M	-115.00M	-112.00M	16.00M	-213.00M	-32.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-86.00M	-132.00M	-401.00M	-486.00M	-317.00M	23.00M

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 71.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VAC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 71.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.17, below the 50-day MA of 74.18, and below the 200-day MA of 75.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VAC.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PLYA	71 Outperform	$1.66B	26.78	11.21%	―	-9.78%	7.43%
HGV	70 Outperform	$3.96B	75.90	3.35%	―	13.01%	-59.35%
VAC	66 Neutral	$2.52B	10.99	10.67%	4.38%	4.61%	9.16%
MTN	66 Neutral	$5.54B	19.07	30.55%	5.94%	2.38%	6.01%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$16.55B	10.17	-9.03%	3.33%	1.46%	-22.85%

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Corporate Events

Marriott Vacations Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

On August 4, 2025, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting consolidated contract sales of $445 million and a net income of $69 million. Despite a slight decline in contract sales, the company experienced a 28% increase in adjusted EBITDA, attributed to a previous year’s sales reserve adjustment. The company remains optimistic about its full-year outlook, emphasizing the resilience of its business model and the continued prioritization of travel by leisure consumers.

The most recent analyst rating on (VAC) stock is a Buy with a $102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation stock, see the VAC Stock Forecast page.

Marriott Vacations Appoints Christian Asmar to Board

On May 27, 2025, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation announced the appointment of Christian A. Asmar to its Board of Directors as part of a Support Agreement with Impactive Capital LP. This agreement includes standstill and voting commitments by Impactive Capital, which owns approximately 9.5% of the company’s shares. The appointment aims to leverage Mr. Asmar’s expertise in investment management to support the company’s modernization efforts and strategic initiatives. The board’s expansion to 12 directors, with Mr. Asmar’s involvement in new ad hoc committees, is expected to enhance the company’s focus on revenue growth, cost efficiencies, and technology innovation, potentially impacting shareholder value positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (VAC) stock is a Buy with a $108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation stock, see the VAC Stock Forecast page.

Marriott Vacations Secures Strong Shareholder Support at Meeting

At the Annual Meeting on May 13, 2025, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation‘s stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of eight directors, ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors, approval of executive compensation, and recommendation for annual stockholder votes on executive compensation were all passed, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s current governance and compensation strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (VAC) stock is a Buy with a $108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation stock, see the VAC Stock Forecast page.

Marriott Vacations Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 7, 2025, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a 3% increase in revenues excluding cost reimbursements and a net income of $56 million. The company returned $91 million to stockholders and reiterated its full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook, despite a decline in consolidated contract sales due to a higher mix of first-time buyers. The company also completed its first securitization of 2025, issuing $450 million of vacation ownership notes, and updated its full-year 2025 guidance, reflecting optimism in its business model and financial strategies.