Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC)
NYSE:VAC
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
(NYSE:VAC)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$85.00
▲(13.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
Score is held back primarily by weak recent fundamentals (losses, negative/weak cash generation, and elevated leverage). Offsetting factors include constructive earnings-call guidance for a meaningful free-cash-flow improvement and a solid dividend yield, while technical signals are broadly neutral.
Positive Factors
Diversified revenue mix: timeshare sales + recurring fee streams
The business combines upfront timeshare/points sales with recurring maintenance, management and exchange fees. That fee-heavy installed-base provides predictable, higher-margin cash flow over time, reducing revenue volatility and supporting long-term cash generation even if new sales fluctuate.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and weakened equity base
Debt levels and declining equity have pushed leverage materially higher, limiting financial flexibility. Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to earnings volatility, constrains capital allocation choices, and makes sustained investment or shareholder returns dependent on executed asset sales and FCF improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified revenue mix: timeshare sales + recurring fee streams
The business combines upfront timeshare/points sales with recurring maintenance, management and exchange fees. That fee-heavy installed-base provides predictable, higher-margin cash flow over time, reducing revenue volatility and supporting long-term cash generation even if new sales fluctuate.
Read all positive factors
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.92B
Dividend Yield5.35%
Average Volume (3M)496.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.65
Revenue Growth2.35%
EPS Growth-253.14%
CountryUS
Employees22,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-9.80
Shares Outstanding34,343,063
10 Day Avg. Volume495,882
30 Day Avg. Volume496,438
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio-69.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-102.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$87.14Price Target Upside16.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)7.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.21B
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership and related products. It operates through two segments, Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The company ma...
How the Company Makes Money
VAC primarily makes money through (1) selling vacation ownership products and (2) collecting recurring fees for managing resorts and serving owners/members. A major revenue stream is the sale of vacation ownership interests/points to consumers, wh...
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Positive: The call emphasized improving commercial momentum (April contract sales +8%, North America +11%) and materially stronger cash generation (Q1 adjusted free cash flow $114M and full-year FCF guide $375M–$425M). Management raised contract sales guidance and launched concrete initiatives (loyalty tiers, Dream Vacation Packages, Inner Circle events, data-driven tour logistics) and organizational changes to drive higher VPGs and sustained growth. Near-term profitability was pressured in Q1 (adjusted EBITDA down 16%, margin -370 bps) by higher marketing/product costs and planned reductions in Asia, but management presented credible actions, asset monetization plans and demonstrated liquidity access, leading to a net positive outlook.Positive Updates
April Contract Sales Acceleration
Contract sales were up 8% year-over-year in April, powered by North America which was up 11%. April VPG increased by roughly $450 (~12.7% YoY), indicating early traction from newly implemented sales and marketing initiatives.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Decline and Margin Compression
Adjusted EBITDA declined 16% year-over-year to $161 million in Q1. Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted by 370 basis points to 19%, reflecting near-term margin pressure even as revenue initiatives ramp.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
April Contract Sales Acceleration
Contract sales were up 8% year-over-year in April, powered by North America which was up 11%. April VPG increased by roughly $450 (~12.7% YoY), indicating early traction from newly implemented sales and marketing initiatives.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided full-year contract sales to increase 3%–7%, tours to decline 1%–3% and VPG to rise mid‑ to high‑single digits, while reaffirming full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance (Q2 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $197M–$202M); they also raised Q2 contract sales to +4%–8%. They expect adjusted free cash flow of $375M–$425M for the year (vs. $145M last year) with free‑cash‑flow conversion in the mid‑50% range. Forward operating indicators include resort occupancy of 88%–90% in Q2 and for the full year, 96% of expected Q2 owner utilization already booked and ~110,000 preview‑package tours for 2026 arrivals; April results showed contract sales +8% (North America +11%) and April VPG up about $450 (~12.7%). On the balance sheet they finished Q1 with $3.3B net corporate debt and ~4.2x leverage with no corporate maturities until Dec 2027, completed a $460M securitization at a blended 4.86% (98% advance), and are targeting >$125M of asset‑sale proceeds this year and $200M–$250M by end‑2027; credit metrics cited included a sales reserve of 12.3% of contract sales and 120‑day delinquencies up 17 bps year‑over‑year (down 45 bps vs. 2024).Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.64B | 5.03B | 4.97B | 4.73B | 4.66B | 3.89B |
| Gross Profit | 1.24B | 760.00M | 1.85B | 1.82B | 1.99B | 1.45B |
| EBITDA | -81.00M | 19.00M | 614.00M | 678.00M | 832.00M | 437.00M |
| Net Income | -342.00M | -308.00M | 218.00M | 254.00M | 391.00M | 49.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.64B | 9.76B | 9.81B | 9.68B | 9.64B | 9.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 268.00M | 733.00M | 197.00M | 248.00M | 524.00M | 342.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.65B | 5.75B | 5.22B | 5.14B | 5.03B | 4.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.64B | 7.76B | 7.37B | 7.30B | 7.14B | 6.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.99B | 1.99B | 2.44B | 2.38B | 2.50B | 2.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -35.00M | -29.00M | 148.00M | 114.00M | 457.00M | 296.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.00M | 28.00M | 205.00M | 232.00M | 522.00M | 343.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.00M | -70.00M | -115.00M | -112.00M | 16.00M | -213.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 99.00M | 241.00M | -132.00M | -401.00M | -486.00M | -317.00M |
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
74.98
Price Trends
71.46
Positive
65.61
Positive
64.00
Positive
Market Momentum
3.10
Negative
69.68
Neutral
91.68
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VAC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 74.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.04, above the 50-day MA of 71.46, and above the 200-day MA of 64.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VAC.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Risk Analysis
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $2.13B | 19.66 | 19.97% | 1.22% | 5.77% | 16.30% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $4.15B | 21.30 | 14.85% | ― | 4.24% | 473.72% | |
55 Neutral | $4.78B | 20.81 | 51.86% | 6.27% | -0.83% | -10.37% | |
51 Neutral | $2.52B | -2.62 | -44.48% | ― | 6.38% | -1099.20% | |
50 Neutral | $2.92B | ― | -15.31% | 5.35% | 2.35% | -253.14% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
84.88
23.29
37.83%
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort
120.26
37.38
45.10%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
18.83
4.05
27.40%
MTN
Vail Resorts
133.60
-13.20
-8.99%
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
52.02
13.86
36.32%
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Marriott Vacations Shareholders Reaffirm Board and Governance Structure
Positive
May 18, 2026
At its Annual Meeting on May 15, 2026, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation reported that approximately 87% of eligible shares were represented, and stockholders elected nine director nominees to the board, reaffirming the company’s exis...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Marriott Vacations Reaffirms Outlook Despite Weaker First Quarter
Negative
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported that first-quarter 2026 contract sales slipped 2% to $411 million, net income fell to $22 million from $56 million, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $161 million from $192 million, even as the c...
Executive/Board Changes
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Announces Executive Legal Leadership Change
Neutral
Mar 6, 2026
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation announced that Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary James H. Hunter IV resigned from his positions at the company’s request effective March 9, 2026, and will retire from employment ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.