Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC)
NYSE:VAC
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
(NYSE:VAC)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$77.00
▲(2.69% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
VAC’s score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance (TTM loss, sharply weaker cash generation, and rising leverage). Offsetting factors include management’s 2026 guidance for materially stronger free cash flow and EBITDA stabilization, plus a supportive dividend yield. Technicals are mixed, with intermediate-term support but weak near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Recurring high‑margin revenue streams
The growth in management, exchange and financing profit shows a durable, high‑margin recurring revenue base less dependent on new VOI sales. These streams generate steady cash and margins that support fixed costs, improving resilience through sales cycles and underpinning long‑term cash conversion targets.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and stretched capital structure
High absolute debt and a weakened equity base leave limited financial flexibility. Elevated leverage raises interest, restricts capital allocation, and increases sensitivity to revenue/cash swings; durable recovery depends on sustained cash generation or successful asset monetization to materially lower leverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring high‑margin revenue streams
The growth in management, exchange and financing profit shows a durable, high‑margin recurring revenue base less dependent on new VOI sales. These streams generate steady cash and margins that support fixed costs, improving resilience through sales cycles and underpinning long‑term cash conversion targets.
Read all positive factors
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.50B
Dividend Yield5.35%
Average Volume (3M)515.79K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth1.31%
EPS Growth-244.35%
CountryUS
Employees22,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-8.83
Shares Outstanding34,306,797
10 Day Avg. Volume430,578
30 Day Avg. Volume515,791
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio-69.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-309.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$78.75Price Target Upside5.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)7.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.09B
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership and related products. It operates through two segments, Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The company ma...
How the Company Makes Money
VAC primarily generates revenue from (1) selling vacation ownership products and related financing, and (2) ongoing, recurring fees tied to managing resorts and servicing owners and members. A major revenue stream is the sale of vacation ownership...
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced notable near‑term headwinds (declining contract sales, lower VPG, tour reductions, material impairments and leverage above target) with decisive corrective actions (capital expenditure reductions, asset monetization plan of $200M–$250M, repaying convertible debt, modernization benefits and free cash flow guidance). Management emphasized immediate focus on profitability, cash flow and organizational changes, expects a bumpy first half but improvement in the second half, and provided modestly positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance for 2026. Overall the narrative is one of pragmatic retrenchment and active remediation with an aim to stabilize and return to growth over time.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Profitability Focus
Reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $186M and full-year adjusted EBITDA of $751M; 2026 guidance of $755M–$780M (slight increase at midpoint) reflecting management actions to improve profitability and free cash flow.
Negative Updates
Contract Sales Declines
Contract sales declined 4% year‑over‑year in Q4 and were down 3% for full year 2025 (totaling $1.8B), driven by lower system‑wide VPG and regional softness.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA and Profitability Focus
Reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $186M and full-year adjusted EBITDA of $751M; 2026 guidance of $755M–$780M (slight increase at midpoint) reflecting management actions to improve profitability and free cash flow.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to modest growth and materially stronger cash generation in 2026: contract sales are expected to be up ~1% at the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA $755–$780 million (which includes a $10 million product-cost benefit and a $10–$15 million negative impact from reclassifying warehouse interest), and adjusted free cash flow $375–$425 million with adjusted free-cash-flow conversion of roughly 50–55% (including ~ $100 million of cash inflows from the Cancun hotel sale and monetization of Asian notes); inventory spending is expected to be $160–$170 million (including $55 million of prior commitments) while capital spending reductions and project deferrals will lower 2026 capex by $70–$80 million; tours are expected to decline mid-single-digits (including an intentional ~30% reduction in Asia), rental profit is forecast to decline 15–20%, management & exchange profit to increase, financing profit to be down on a reported basis due to ~$13 million of warehouse interest (but roughly flat excluding that change), sales reserve to remain ~12.7% of contract sales, financing propensity ~56%, and the company targets monetizing $200–$250 million of non-core assets (incremental to the $50 million already received from the Westin Cancun sale); near-term expectations are for Q1 contract sales to be down a few percentage points and Q1 EBITDA to be lower, with improvements anticipated in the second half of the year.Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.03B | 4.97B | 4.73B | 4.66B | 3.89B |
| Gross Profit | 760.00M | 1.85B | 1.82B | 1.99B | 1.45B |
| EBITDA | 19.00M | 614.00M | 678.00M | 832.00M | 437.00M |
| Net Income | -308.00M | 218.00M | 254.00M | 391.00M | 49.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.76B | 9.81B | 9.68B | 9.64B | 9.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 733.00M | 197.00M | 248.00M | 524.00M | 342.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.75B | 5.22B | 5.14B | 5.03B | 4.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.76B | 7.37B | 7.30B | 7.14B | 6.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.99B | 2.44B | 2.38B | 2.50B | 2.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -29.00M | 148.00M | 114.00M | 457.00M | 296.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 28.00M | 205.00M | 232.00M | 522.00M | 343.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -70.00M | -115.00M | -112.00M | 16.00M | -213.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 241.00M | -132.00M | -401.00M | -486.00M | -317.00M |
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
74.98
Price Trends
64.68
Positive
60.56
Positive
64.80
Positive
Market Momentum
1.49
Negative
66.99
Neutral
87.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VAC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 74.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.38, above the 50-day MA of 64.68, and above the 200-day MA of 64.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VAC.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Risk Analysis
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $2.09B | 15.46 | 19.97% | 1.22% | 5.77% | 16.30% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.30B | -217.94 | -44.48% | ― | 6.38% | -1099.20% | |
58 Neutral | $3.73B | 12.07 | 8.08% | ― | 4.24% | 473.72% | |
55 Neutral | $4.48B | 5.69 | 51.86% | 6.27% | -0.83% | -10.37% | |
53 Neutral | $753.69M | -118.26 | -1.37% | 3.71% | -4.78% | -113.11% | |
48 Neutral | $2.50B | -1.17 | -13.14% | 5.35% | 1.31% | -244.35% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
70.21
14.44
25.89%
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort
117.09
39.85
51.58%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
16.79
0.96
6.06%
MTN
Vail Resorts
123.30
-8.48
-6.43%
GDEN
Golden Entertainment
28.55
3.62
14.51%
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
45.35
6.93
18.04%
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Announces Executive Legal Leadership Change
Neutral
Mar 6, 2026
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation announced that Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary James H. Hunter IV resigned from his positions at the company’s request effective March 9, 2026, and will retire from employment ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Marriott Vacations Highlights Q4 Losses, Strategic Refocus Plans
Negative
Feb 25, 2026
Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported fourth-quarter 2025 consolidated contract sales of $458 million and a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $431 million, or $12.43 per diluted share, driven by restructuring costs, modernization exp...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Marriott Vacations Names New CEO and President, Resets Strategy
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 16, 2026, Marriott Vacations Worldwide’s board appointed Matthew E. Avril, previously interim president and CEO, as chief executive officer and named industry veteran Michael A. Flaskey as president and chief operating officer, b...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.