Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
NYSE:HGV
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Hilton Grand Vacations
(NYSE:HGV)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$44.00
▼(-10.24% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is most constrained by financial risk factors—especially very high leverage and thin net margins—despite solid operating margins and improving free cash flow. The earnings call supports a moderately positive outlook (EBITDA growth guidance, strong cash generation, buybacks, and synergy/financing progress), but technicals remain weak (below major moving averages) and valuation is unattractive given the high P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow
Consistent, sizable free cash flow provides durable internal funding for operations, investment and buybacks. Over the next 2–6 months this supports capital returns, potential deleveraging, and resilience to cyclical travel demand, reducing reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Elevated leverage meaningfully limits financial flexibility if demand weakens or margins compress. With historically high debt ratios, capacity for large investments, cyclical cushion, or aggressive buybacks is constrained, increasing refinancing and covenant sensitivity risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow
Consistent, sizable free cash flow provides durable internal funding for operations, investment and buybacks. Over the next 2–6 months this supports capital returns, potential deleveraging, and resilience to cyclical travel demand, reducing reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.53B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)732.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)49.7
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth1.33%
EPS Growth97.64%
CountryUS
Employees21,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.99
Shares Outstanding81,258,865
10 Day Avg. Volume786,800
30 Day Avg. Volume732,697
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)3.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio17.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.92
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.98
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$55.86Price Target Upside13.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)4.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.61B
Hilton Grand Vacations Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company operates in two segments, Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort ...
How the Company Makes Money
HGV primarily makes money through a combination of (1) selling vacation ownership interests, (2) financing those purchases, and (3) recurring fees and resort/club management revenues.
1) Vacation ownership (timeshare) sales: A major revenue drive...
Hilton Grand Vacations Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong full-year contract sales growth (10%), expanding margins in real estate, robust adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter, substantial free cash flow generation ($756M) and $600M of share repurchases. Strategic initiatives showed traction — HGV Max adoption, tour growth and $100M of cost synergies achieved early — and financing optimization unlocked new funding (Japan ABS) and improved securitization to ~73%. Near-term headwinds were acknowledged: elevated provisions and allowance levels, VPG pressure from tough comps, front-loaded expense impacts from license-fee step-ups and finance optimization, rental/ancillary drag from developer maintenance fees and a modest leverage profile (net leverage ~3.78x). Management provided conservative 2026 guidance embedding low single-digit sales growth and near-term EBITDA cadence pressures but expects sequential improvement through the year. On balance, the positives — especially cash flow, margin expansion, member/product adoption and capital returns — materially outweigh the challenges and disclosed near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Full-Year Contract Sales Growth
Contract sales grew 10% for fiscal 2025 (full year), the highest growth since 2022, driven by both owner and new-buyer channels and a mix of stronger VPGs and tour flow.
Negative Updates
VPG Pressure and Expected VPG Declines
VPG in Q4 was nearly $3,800 and declined versus prior year (impact from lapping HGV Max launch and Ka Haku project); company expects full-year 2026 VPG to be slightly down and Q1 VPG to decline high single-digits vs prior-year comps.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Contract Sales Growth
Contract sales grew 10% for fiscal 2025 (full year), the highest growth since 2022, driven by both owner and new-buyer channels and a mix of stronger VPGs and tour flow.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hilton Grand Vacations guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA before deferrals of $1.185–$1.225 billion (up from $1.15B in 2025), assuming low‑single‑digit contract sales growth and mid‑single‑digit EBITDA growth, with full‑year VPG expected to be down slightly; Q1 is expected to be flat to slightly down (Q1 tours +high‑single‑digit vs. Q1 VPG −high‑single‑digit) and EBITDA should improve sequentially each quarter. The company baked in two near‑term expense headwinds—about $15–$20M of license‑fee step‑ups and $10–$15M from the finance‑optimization program—expects provisions to normalize to the mid‑teens percent of contract sales (Q1 down sequentially), targets a 70–80% run‑rate securitization (with ABS deals in H1, including Japan), and forecasts adjusted free‑cash‑flow conversion in the long‑term 55–65% range (in the lower half in 2026). Management also reiterated a repurchase cadence of ~ $150M per quarter while maintaining leverage and aims to keep EBITDA margins roughly consistent with where they finished 2025.Hilton Grand Vacations Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.18B | 5.05B | 4.98B | 3.98B | 3.83B | 2.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.25B | 2.86B | 2.83B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 855.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.15B | 759.00M | 733.00M | 840.00M | 867.00M | 500.00M |
| Net Income | 199.00M | 81.00M | 47.00M | 313.00M | 352.00M | 176.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.94B | 11.54B | 11.44B | 8.69B | 8.00B | 8.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 261.00M | 571.00M | 328.00M | 589.00M | 223.00M | 432.00M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 7.35B | 7.02B | 4.59B | 3.85B | 4.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.59B | 10.10B | 9.55B | 6.57B | 5.85B | 6.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.20B | 1.29B | 1.75B | 2.12B | 2.15B | 1.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 334.00M | 230.00M | 183.00M | 237.00M | 650.00M | 150.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 390.00M | 300.00M | 309.00M | 312.00M | 747.00M | 168.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -134.00M | -146.00M | -1.57B | -158.00M | -97.00M | -1.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -259.00M | -338.00M | 1.16B | 183.00M | -782.00M | 1.64B |
Hilton Grand Vacations Technical Analysis
Positive
49.02
Price Trends
44.11
Positive
44.39
Positive
44.45
Positive
Market Momentum
1.25
Negative
67.56
Neutral
88.82
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HGV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.64, above the 50-day MA of 44.11, and above the 200-day MA of 44.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HGV.
Hilton Grand Vacations Risk Analysis
Hilton Grand Vacations disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilton Grand Vacations reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hilton Grand Vacations Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $10.05B | 46.86 | 7.55% | ― | 1.72% | -68.21% | |
60 Neutral | $5.58B | -13.75 | -13.18% | ― | 2.35% | -116.00% | |
55 Neutral | $4.35B | 5.69 | 51.86% | 6.27% | -0.83% | -10.37% | |
54 Neutral | $10.85B | 38.12 | -90.44% | 0.80% | 0.14% | -30.95% | |
52 Neutral | $3.53B | 49.67 | 8.08% | ― | 1.33% | 97.64% | |
48 Neutral | $2.35B | -1.17 | -13.14% | 5.35% | 1.31% | -244.35% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
43.40
9.77
29.05%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
68.43
16.16
30.92%
MGM
MGM Resorts
39.27
7.81
24.83%
MTN
Vail Resorts
122.16
-8.69
-6.64%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
104.24
24.66
30.98%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
27.38
0.32
1.18%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.