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Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)
NYSE:HGV
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Hilton Grand Vacations
(NYSE:HGV)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(6.87% Upside)
Hilton Grand Vacations' strong earnings call performance, marked by record contract sales and strategic progress, is offset by financial stability concerns due to high leverage and declining revenue growth. The stock's technical indicators and valuation suggest caution, as it appears overvalued with bearish momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong Contract Sales Growth
The significant increase in contract sales indicates strong demand and effective sales strategies, which are crucial for sustained revenue growth and market position.
HGV Max Membership Growth
The growth in HGV Max memberships enhances recurring revenue streams and customer loyalty, supporting long-term business stability and expansion.
Bluegreen Integration Progress
Successful integration and cost synergies from the Bluegreen acquisition improve operational efficiency and profitability, strengthening competitive advantage.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can constrain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Declining Revenue Growth
A declining revenue growth rate may signal challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could affect long-term profitability and market position.
Decline in Free Cash Flow Growth
Decreased free cash flow growth limits the company's ability to fund new investments and return capital to shareholders, impacting future growth prospects.
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.12B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)715.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)83.4
Beta (1Y)1.40
Revenue Growth5.98%
EPS Growth-34.77%
CountryUS
Employees21,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.60
Shares Outstanding85,543,090
10 Day Avg. Volume631,280
30 Day Avg. Volume715,500
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.27
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio21.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.16Price Target Upside0.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Hilton Grand Vacations Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company operates in two segments, Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management. It sells vacation ownership intervals and vacation ownership interests; manages resorts and clubs; operates points-based vacation clubs and resort amenities; and finances and services loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases. The company also manages and operates the points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange programs, and Diamond Clubs, which provide exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services to approximately 333,000 members, as well as engages in the rental of inventory made available due to ownership exchanges through its club programs. As of December 31, 2021, it had 154 properties located in the United States. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyHilton Grand Vacations generates revenue primarily through the sale of vacation ownership interests, which allows customers to purchase a share in a vacation property. This revenue stream includes initial sales, financing options for buyers, and the resale of timeshare interests. Additionally, HGV earns income from annual maintenance fees paid by owners to cover the operating costs of the properties. The company also benefits from its membership programs, offering exclusive promotions and access to a network of resorts, which can drive customer loyalty and repeat business. Strategic partnerships with other travel and hospitality brands further enhance HGV's offerings, contributing to its revenue through cross-promotional opportunities and expanded customer reach.
Hilton Grand Vacations Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong performance in contract sales and EBITDA growth, with strategic initiatives such as the HGV Max program and Bluegreen integration showing significant progress. However, challenges in the Las Vegas rental market and elevated marketing expenses were noted. Overall, the sentiment was positive, driven by record sales and effective execution of strategic goals.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Contract Sales Growth
Contract sales were up 17% to $907 million, marking a record for the business on a pro forma basis.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA was $302 million with margins of 24%, reflecting nearly double-digit growth.
Broad-based Sales Performance
The company reported mid-teens contract sales growth at both legacy and Bluegreen businesses, with VPG up 15% year-over-year.
HGV Max Membership Growth
HGV Max added 70,000 members over the past 12 months, surpassing 250,000 total members, including nearly 30,000 legacy Bluegreen members.
Bluegreen Integration Progress
Achieved $94 million in run rate cost synergies from Bluegreen acquisition, on track for $100 million in savings.
Share Repurchase Program
Repurchased 3.3 million shares for $150 million in the quarter, with a total of 12.4 million shares repurchased year-to-date.
Negative Updates
Las Vegas Rental Market Challenges
The Las Vegas FIT rental market remained slow due to visitations and competitive dynamics, impacting rental business performance.
Higher Marketing Expenses
The company incurred approximately $7 million in additional marketing expenses due to stronger-than-expected package sales performance.
Company Guidance
During Hilton Grand Vacations' third quarter 2025 earnings call, Mark Wang, the CEO, highlighted the company's impressive operational and financial performance. The company achieved a 17% increase in contract sales, amounting to $907 million, which was a record on a pro forma basis. Adjusted EBITDA reached $302 million with a margin of 24%, excluding reimbursements. The tour flow grew by 2%, and the VPG increased by 15% compared to the previous year, with both owner and new buyer channels contributing to this growth. The company maintained an occupancy rate of 83% and saw double-digit growth in package sales, maintaining a pipeline of nearly 750,000 packages. The member count reached 722,000, with HGV Max members surpassing 250,000. The financing business reported a profit margin of 59%, with an annualized default rate of 10.1%. The company also repurchased 3.3 million shares for $150 million during the quarter and reiterated its commitment to returning $600 million to shareholders in 2025. Looking forward, Hilton Grand Vacations expects continued growth momentum into the year-end, maintaining its existing EBITDA guidance for 2025 and anticipating high single-digit contract sales growth.Hilton Grand Vacations Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Hilton Grand Vacations shows stable profitability but faces challenges with declining revenue growth and high leverage. Positive cash flow generation is overshadowed by a declining growth trend, indicating financial stability concerns.Income Statement
Hilton Grand Vacations shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data reveals a decline in revenue growth rate by 12%, indicating a potential challenge in maintaining sales momentum. However, the company maintains a positive net profit margin of 1.76% and a gross profit margin of 40.42%, which are reasonable but have decreased from previous years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also positive, though slightly lower than past performance, suggesting stable operational efficiency despite revenue challenges.Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.26 in the TTM, reflecting significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is modest at 5.67%, showing limited profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 11.86%, highlighting a low proportion of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet suggests financial stability concerns due to high leverage.Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 28.93% in the TTM, which could impact future investment capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.37, indicating moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.47, suggesting that a significant portion of net income is converted to free cash flow. While cash flow generation is positive, the declining growth rate is a concern.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.00B | 4.98B | 3.98B | 3.83B | 2.33B | 894.00M |
| Gross Profit | 2.02B | 2.83B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 855.00M | 152.00M |
| EBITDA | 708.00M | 733.00M | 840.00M | 867.00M | 500.00M | -192.00M |
| Net Income | 88.00M | 47.00M | 313.00M | 352.00M | 176.00M | -201.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.68B | 11.44B | 8.69B | 8.00B | 8.01B | 3.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 215.00M | 328.00M | 589.00M | 223.00M | 432.00M | 526.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.28B | 7.02B | 4.59B | 3.85B | 4.33B | 1.99B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.14B | 9.55B | 6.57B | 5.85B | 6.02B | 2.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.39B | 1.75B | 2.12B | 2.15B | 1.99B | 374.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 113.00M | 183.00M | 237.00M | 650.00M | 150.00M | 48.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 238.00M | 309.00M | 312.00M | 747.00M | 168.00M | 79.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -161.00M | -1.57B | -158.00M | -97.00M | -1.63B | -33.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -67.00M | 1.16B | 183.00M | -782.00M | 1.64B | 328.00M |
Hilton Grand Vacations Technical Analysis
Positive
47.72
Price Trends
42.64
Positive
43.62
Positive
42.22
Positive
Market Momentum
1.22
Negative
67.40
Neutral
90.63
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HGV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.43, above the 50-day MA of 42.64, and above the 200-day MA of 42.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HGV.
Hilton Grand Vacations Risk Analysis
Hilton Grand Vacations disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilton Grand Vacations reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hilton Grand Vacations Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $4.93B | 20.21 | 88.61% | 6.27% | 3.06% | 12.82% | |
63 Neutral | $9.42B | 218.58 | 2.25% | ― | 0.05% | -94.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $4.12B | 83.43 | 3.28% | ― | 5.98% | -34.77% | |
58 Neutral | $2.26B | 14.60 | 7.08% | 5.35% | 4.18% | -13.89% | |
53 Neutral | $12.25B | 25.99 | ― | 0.80% | -0.26% | -44.45% | |
51 Neutral | $5.03B | ― | -6.06% | ― | 0.87% | 31.28% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
47.72
8.64
22.11%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
64.13
-17.03
-20.99%
MGM
MGM Resorts
34.82
1.72
5.20%
MTN
Vail Resorts
141.00
-32.23
-18.60%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
116.84
35.66
43.93%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
24.57
-8.62
-25.97%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.