Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.48B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 116.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: 18.40%
• EPS Growth: -84.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,800
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 91,666,046
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 780,717
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,025,434
• PEG Ratio: -3.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.92
• 1Y Price Target: $45.83
• Price Target Upside: 20.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $42.00 ▲( 10.70% Upside)

Hilton Grand Vacations demonstrates strong growth and operational efficiency, highlighted by an impressive earnings call. However, the stock's high valuation and mixed technical indicators present challenges. Financial performance is solid, but profitability metrics need improvement to enhance overall appeal.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The company's consolidated revenue exceeded expectations, coming in at $1,284 million compared to the Street's $1,276.4 million.

Securitization Impact

Releasing cash through improved securitization is seen as a significant catalyst for the company's shares.

Negative Factors

Cost Pressures

There are a few cost considerations in 2025, including a significant step-up in the license fee and elevated maintenance fees, which present a near-term headwind to rentals expense.

Sales Force Challenges

The last 3 quarters have been tumultuous, with the sales force stretched in many situations, driving down close rates.

Hilton Grand Vacations Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) is a leading global timeshare company renowned for developing, marketing, and operating a portfolio of high-quality vacation ownership resorts in premier destinations. As part of the hospitality industry, HGV offers a diversified selection of vacation ownership products, including timeshare intervals and points-based vacations, that provide customers with unique and flexible vacation experiences. The company operates through a network of resorts and sales centers, primarily in North America, Europe, and Asia, and is affiliated with the Hilton Worldwide brand, ensuring a high standard of service and accommodations.

How the Company Makes Money

Hilton Grand Vacations makes money through its core business model centered around vacation ownership. The company generates revenue through the sale of timeshare intervals and points-based vacation products, where customers purchase the right to use a property for a specified period each year. Additionally, HGV earns recurring revenue from annual maintenance fees, which timeshare owners pay to cover the upkeep and operation of the resorts. Another significant revenue stream for HGV is its financing solutions, where the company provides financing options for customers purchasing timeshare products, earning interest income on the loans. HGV also benefits from its affiliation with the Hilton brand, leveraging the brand's reputation and loyalty programs to attract and retain customers. Partnerships with travel agencies and marketing alliances further enhance HGV's sales and brand visibility, contributing to its overall earnings.

Hilton Grand Vacations Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hilton Grand Vacations demonstrates strong revenue growth and efficient operational management, although it faces challenges in maintaining its net profit margin. The balance sheet is robust with no debt and a moderate equity ratio, though ROE has slightly declined. Cash flows are well-managed, showing stability and effective cash conversion. Overall, the company is in a strong financial position but should focus on improving profitability metrics.

Income Statement

The company shows a strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 25.23% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is impressive at 58.41%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased to 4.50% from 7.87% in the prior year, suggesting some challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT margin stands at 12.39% while the EBITDA margin is at 14.73%, both indicating solid operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Hilton Grand Vacations has a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00, reflecting zero total debt, which is excellent for financial stability. The equity ratio is at 15.31%, indicating a moderate reliance on equity financing. The return on equity has decreased to 12.79% from 14.80% the previous year, showing a decrease in efficiency in generating profits from shareholder equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remained stable with a slight decrease compared to the previous year, but the free cash flow increased by 1.27%, indicating effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.38, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.07, reflecting adequate cash coverage for net income.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.97B	4.98B	3.98B	3.83B	2.33B	894.00M
	Gross Profit
1.97B	1.33B	1.23B	1.27B	855.00M	152.00M
	EBIT
544.00M	697.00M	684.00M	707.00M	482.00M	-28.00M
	EBITDA
791.00M	733.00M	840.00M	954.00M	624.00M	-192.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
159.00M	47.00M	313.00M	352.00M	176.00M	-201.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
259.00M	328.00M	589.00M	223.00M	432.00M	428.00M
	Total Assets
11.79B	11.44B	8.69B	8.00B	8.01B	3.13B
	Total Debt
0.00	7.02B	4.59B	3.85B	4.33B	1.99B
	Net Debt
6.77B	6.69B	4.00B	3.62B	3.90B	1.56B
	Total Liabilities
10.06B	9.55B	6.57B	5.85B	6.02B	2.76B
	Stockholders Equity
1.58B	1.75B	2.12B	2.15B	1.99B	374.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
208.00M	183.00M	237.00M	650.00M	129.00M	48.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
347.00M	309.00M	312.00M	747.00M	168.00M	79.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-130.00M	-1.57B	-158.00M	-97.00M	-1.63B	-33.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-317.00M	1.16B	183.00M	-782.00M	1.64B	328.00M

Hilton Grand Vacations Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 37.94
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HGV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.81, above the 50-day MA of 36.79, and below the 200-day MA of 38.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HGV.

Hilton Grand Vacations Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTN	73 Outperform	$5.52B	21.66	38.12%	6.01%	3.57%	13.75%
PLYA	72 Outperform	$1.65B	26.72	11.21%	―	-9.78%	7.43%
VAC	71 Outperform	$2.27B	11.25	9.43%	4.71%	4.61%	9.16%
HGV	69 Neutral	$3.48B	116.06	1.90%	―	18.40%	-84.43%
MGM	68 Neutral	$8.53B	14.04	21.38%	―	2.76%	-14.31%
EVRI	62 Neutral	$1.22B	86.98	5.81%	―	-6.41%	-75.66%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.84B	11.23	3.09%	3.95%	2.66%	-25.23%

Hilton Grand Vacations Corporate Events

Hilton Grand Vacations Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 7, 2025, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where several key decisions were made. Stockholders elected directors for a one-year term, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as independent auditors for the 2025 fiscal year, and approved executive compensation in a non-binding advisory vote.

Hilton Grand Vacations CFO Returns from Leave

On March 24, 2025, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. announced that Daniel J. Mathewes, the company’s President and Chief Financial Officer, returned from a temporary leave of absence for personal reasons. During his absence, Erin Day, the Executive Vice President of Finance, served as the acting Chief Financial Officer and will now resume her role as Executive Vice President, Finance.