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Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)
NYSE:HGV
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Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) AI Stock Analysis

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HGV

Hilton Grand Vacations

(NYSE:HGV)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$49.00
▲(9.33%Upside)
Hilton Grand Vacations' overall stock score of 70 reflects a strong earnings call performance and solid financial management, despite challenges in profitability margins and valuation concerns. The company's strategic initiatives and expansion efforts are promising, but high valuation metrics suggest caution. Technical analysis indicates mixed market sentiment, contributing to the stock's moderate rating.
Positive Factors
Financial Optimization
Balance sheet optimization is a continued tailwind with HGV completing a $300m securitization.
Revenue Performance
The company's consolidated revenue exceeded expectations, coming in at $1,284 million compared to the Street's $1,276.4 million.
Sales Performance
The bull case surrounding Bluegreen upgrade sales is fully underway, indicating increased potential for growth.
Negative Factors
Cost Pressures
Margins are expected to be slightly lower in 2025 for rentals due to various cost pressures and comparisons to previous years.
Natural Disaster Impact
Some of the hurricane impact affecting the end of 2024 is expected to stretch into the first quarter of 2025.
Operational Challenges
The last 3 quarters have been tumultuous, with the sales force stretched in many situations, affecting efficiency and closing rates.

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Hilton Grand Vacations Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHilton Grand Vacations (HGV) is a leading global timeshare company that specializes in developing, marketing, and operating vacation ownership properties. As a prominent player in the hospitality and vacation ownership industry, HGV offers a variety of high-quality vacation experiences through its portfolio of resorts, primarily under the Hilton brand. The company provides its customers with flexible and customizable vacation ownership programs, allowing them to enjoy premium accommodations and amenities at prestigious destinations worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyHilton Grand Vacations generates revenue primarily through the sale of timeshare interests, also known as vacation ownership interests (VOIs). These sales occur through direct sales channels, including in-person presentations and digital platforms. Additionally, HGV earns income from recurring fees associated with the maintenance and management of its resorts, which are paid by the owners of the VOIs. The company also benefits from financing solutions it offers to customers to facilitate VOI purchases, earning interest and financing charges over time. Partnerships with the Hilton brand enhance HGV's market reach and brand recognition, contributing significantly to its sales and customer loyalty.

Hilton Grand Vacations Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -11.74%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong overall performance with notable achievements in contract sales growth, membership, and financial optimization. While there were some challenges with tour numbers and market softness in Las Vegas, the company demonstrated resilience and strategic success, particularly with international securitization and shareholder returns.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Contract Sales Growth
Reported contract sales were up 10% to $834 million, driven by strong VPG expansion and tour flow trends.
Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Margins
Adjusted EBITDA was $278 million with margins excluding reimbursements, of 23%.
Strong Membership Growth
Member count was nearly 725,000 with over 233,000 HGV Max members, including nearly 21,000 legacy Bluegreen members who joined the program.
Successful Securitization in Japan
Closed on a JPY 9.5 billion timeshare securitization in Japan at a favorable cost of capital, opening up a new market for low-cost funding.
Significant Cash Return to Shareholders
Returned $300 million to shareholders this year, including $150 million for the quarter, with a goal of returning $600 million this year.
Inventory Recapture Efficiency
Continued success in adding new members to Max and efficiency in inventory recapture supporting future cash flow growth.
Negative Updates
Slight Decline in Tour Numbers
Tours were slightly lower in Q2 despite strong VPG, as efficiency initiatives prioritized highest propensity tours.
Softness in Las Vegas Market
Lower market-wide international and convention business in Las Vegas led to increased competitive promotional activity and pressure on room rates.
Company Guidance
During Hilton Grand Vacations' Second Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reiterated confidence in its annual guidance, driven by a 10% increase in reported contract sales to $834 million and adjusted EBITDA of $278 million with a margin of 23%. The call highlighted significant growth in volume per guest (VPG), up 11% to $3,690, buoyed by the HGV Max offering. Occupancy remained stable at 83% compared to the prior year, while the member count reached nearly 725,000, with over 233,000 HGV Max members. The company successfully expanded its package pipeline, more than doubling additions from the first quarter, and achieved a notable milestone with a JPY 9.5 billion timeshare securitization in Japan. Furthermore, Hilton Grand Vacations emphasized its commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders, having returned $300 million so far this year, and maintained its goal of returning $600 million in total.

Hilton Grand Vacations Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Hilton Grand Vacations demonstrates strong revenue growth and efficient operational management, although it faces challenges in maintaining its net profit margin. The balance sheet is robust with no debt, and cash flows are well-managed, but ROE has slightly declined.
Income Statement
80
Positive
The company shows a strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 25.23% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is impressive at 58.41%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased to 4.50% from 7.87% in the prior year, suggesting some challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT margin stands at 12.39% while the EBITDA margin is at 14.73%, both indicating solid operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Hilton Grand Vacations has a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00, reflecting zero total debt, which is excellent for financial stability. The equity ratio is at 15.31%, indicating a moderate reliance on equity financing. The return on equity has decreased to 12.79% from 14.80% the previous year, showing a decrease in efficiency in generating profits from shareholder equity.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Operating cash flow remained stable with a slight decrease compared to the previous year, but the free cash flow increased by 1.27%, indicating effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.38, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.07, reflecting adequate cash coverage for net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.00B4.98B3.98B3.83B2.33B894.00M
Gross Profit1.73B1.33B1.23B1.27B855.00M152.00M
EBITDA604.00M733.00M840.00M954.00M624.00M-192.00M
Net Income215.00M47.00M313.00M352.00M176.00M-201.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.74B11.44B8.69B8.00B8.01B3.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments269.00M328.00M589.00M223.00M432.00M428.00M
Total Debt0.007.02B4.59B3.85B4.33B1.99B
Total Liabilities10.10B9.55B6.57B5.85B6.02B2.76B
Stockholders Equity1.49B1.75B2.12B2.15B1.99B374.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow113.00M183.00M237.00M650.00M129.00M48.00M
Operating Cash Flow234.00M309.00M312.00M747.00M168.00M79.00M
Investing Cash Flow-121.00M-1.57B-158.00M-97.00M-1.63B-33.00M
Financing Cash Flow-146.00M1.16B183.00M-782.00M1.64B328.00M

Hilton Grand Vacations Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price44.82
Price Trends
50DMA
43.15
Positive
100DMA
39.84
Positive
200DMA
40.09
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.86
Positive
RSI
43.50
Neutral
STOCH
54.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HGV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 44.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.18, above the 50-day MA of 43.15, and above the 200-day MA of 40.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HGV.

Hilton Grand Vacations Risk Analysis

Hilton Grand Vacations disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilton Grand Vacations reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hilton Grand Vacations Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$4.68B155.343.35%13.01%-59.35%
69
Neutral
$2.81B13.929.43%4.20%4.61%9.16%
66
Neutral
$10.18B16.9717.34%0.89%-31.56%
66
Neutral
$5.78B19.9230.55%5.81%2.38%6.01%
65
Neutral
€7.75B13.688.46%3.28%3.88%-27.41%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
44.82
5.13
12.93%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
74.47
0.99
1.35%
MGM
MGM Resorts
36.45
0.97
2.73%
MTN
Vail Resorts
150.26
-15.54
-9.37%

Hilton Grand Vacations Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hilton Grand Vacations Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where several key decisions were made. Stockholders elected directors for a one-year term, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as independent auditors for the 2025 fiscal year, and approved executive compensation in a non-binding advisory vote.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025