Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
NYSE:HGV
Want to see HGV full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Hilton Grand Vacations
(NYSE:HGV)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$52.00
▲(6.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/05/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet leverage and thin net profitability despite positive cash generation. Offsetting this, technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive MACD, and the latest earnings call was constructive with raised EBITDA guidance and continued buybacks. Valuation appears fair (P/E ~20.4) without dividend support.
Positive Factors
Operating Profitability
Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins reflect durable operating leverage in HGV's timeshare and management businesses. Strong underlying margins support reinvestment in resorts, margin resilience through cycles, and capacity to absorb marketing or financing cost variability over months.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Very high leverage materially reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing risk in a consumer-cyclical, interest-rate-sensitive industry. Elevated debt limits capital allocation optionality and amplifies downside in an economic slowdown or credit tightening over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating Profitability
Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins reflect durable operating leverage in HGV's timeshare and management businesses. Strong underlying margins support reinvestment in resorts, margin resilience through cycles, and capacity to absorb marketing or financing cost variability over months.
Read all positive factors
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.18B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.6
Beta (1Y)1.65
Revenue Growth4.24%
EPS Growth473.72%
CountryUS
Employees21,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.26
Shares Outstanding79,265,450
10 Day Avg. Volume1,441,605
30 Day Avg. Volume1,125,056
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)3.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio17.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.72
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.38
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$59.67Price Target Upside21.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)5.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.60B
Hilton Grand Vacations Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. operates as a leading timeshare enterprise, primarily engaged in the development, promotion, sale, and oversight of vacation ownership properties, prominently featuring its Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's ac...
How the Company Makes Money
HGV primarily makes money through a combination of (1) selling vacation ownership interests, (2) financing those purchases, and (3) recurring fees for managing resorts and servicing owners.
1) Sale of vacation ownership interests (VOI): A core re...
Hilton Grand Vacations Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive picture: the company delivered above-expectation adjusted EBITDA growth, margin expansion, improved financing performance, strong new-buyer and tour trends, and raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. Management also executed strategic moves (Elara tail acquisition, identified dispositions) and continued meaningful share repurchases. Offsetting items include an 8% decline in VPG, a modest decline in contract sales, a $19M developer maintenance fee drag in rentals, a Q1 adjusted free cash flow outflow of $37M, and elevated allowance levels tied to portfolio mix. Overall the operational and financial positives, guidance raise, and strategic actions outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA to shareholders grew 8% year-over-year to $267 million, with margins (excluding reimbursements) of 23%, up 130 basis points versus the prior year. Management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.225B–$1.265B (up $40M at the midpoint).
Negative Updates
VPG Decline
Value per guest (VPG) was nearly $3,800 for the quarter, down 8% year-over-year, driven by normalization of Bluegreen after the prior HGV Max launch and a higher mix of lower-VPG new-buyer sales.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA to shareholders grew 8% year-over-year to $267 million, with margins (excluding reimbursements) of 23%, up 130 basis points versus the prior year. Management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.225B–$1.265B (up $40M at the midpoint).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
HGV raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA before deferrals to $1.225–$1.265 billion (up $40 million at the midpoint from prior $1.185–$1.225B) and said adjusted EBITDA should increase sequentially each quarter, with Q2 expected to grow low‑ to mid‑single digits year‑over‑year (including ≈$3M from Elara) and Elara expected to contribute ≈$20M for the remainder of 2026; prior full‑year sales targets remain unchanged — low single‑digit contract sales growth, low‑ to mid‑single‑digit tour growth, VPG down slightly for the year (Q2–Q3 down low‑ to mid‑single‑digits, returning to solid growth in Q4), and conversion expected in the lower half of the 55%–65% target range; inventory dispositions are not included in guidance but could add a $10–$12M annual run‑rate EBITDA benefit if completed; provisions are expected to remain in the mid‑teens; the company plans to repurchase about $150M per quarter (Q1 repurchases $150M; Apr 1–23 additional $41M; $237M repurchase capacity remaining), and ended the quarter with $852M liquidity ($261M cash, $591M revolver) and 3.9x TTM net leverage.Hilton Grand Vacations Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.18B | 5.05B | 4.98B | 3.98B | 3.83B | 2.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.95B | 2.86B | 2.83B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 855.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.31B | 759.00M | 733.00M | 840.00M | 867.00M | 500.00M |
| Net Income | 199.00M | 81.00M | 47.00M | 313.00M | 352.00M | 176.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.94B | 11.54B | 11.44B | 8.69B | 8.00B | 8.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 552.00M | 571.00M | 328.00M | 589.00M | 223.00M | 432.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.39B | 7.35B | 7.02B | 4.59B | 3.85B | 4.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.59B | 10.10B | 9.55B | 6.57B | 5.85B | 6.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.20B | 1.29B | 1.75B | 2.12B | 2.15B | 1.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 328.00M | 230.00M | 183.00M | 237.00M | 650.00M | 150.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 390.00M | 300.00M | 309.00M | 312.00M | 747.00M | 168.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -134.00M | -146.00M | -1.57B | -158.00M | -97.00M | -1.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -259.00M | -338.00M | 1.16B | 183.00M | -782.00M | 1.64B |
Hilton Grand Vacations Technical Analysis
Positive
49.02
Price Trends
48.18
Positive
46.05
Positive
44.85
Positive
Market Momentum
1.14
Negative
63.69
Neutral
84.32
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HGV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.64, above the 50-day MA of 48.18, and above the 200-day MA of 44.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.32 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HGV.
Hilton Grand Vacations Risk Analysis
Hilton Grand Vacations disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilton Grand Vacations reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hilton Grand Vacations Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $5.95B | -12.29 | -13.29% | ― | 2.35% | -116.00% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $4.18B | 21.59 | 14.85% | ― | 4.24% | 473.72% | |
55 Neutral | $11.98B | 65.67 | 6.96% | ― | 3.39% | -67.21% | |
55 Neutral | $5.16B | 29.21 | 49.64% | 6.27% | -4.29% | -43.57% | |
53 Neutral | $10.95B | 29.01 | -115.50% | 0.80% | 4.72% | -8.26% | |
51 Neutral | $3.36B | -10.00 | -15.31% | 5.35% | 2.35% | -253.14% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
52.73
13.07
32.96%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
97.97
32.66
50.01%
MGM
MGM Resorts
46.84
13.07
38.70%
MTN
Vail Resorts
144.78
-2.44
-1.65%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
105.53
17.85
20.36%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
29.22
1.07
3.80%
Hilton Grand Vacations Corporate Events
Stock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Hilton Grand Vacations Announces Apollo Secondary Share Offering
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. and entities managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management entered into an underwriting agreement with Wells Fargo Securities for a secondary offering of 5,000,000 shares of Hilton Grand Vacations&#...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hilton Grand Vacations Expands Timeshare Receivables Loan Facility
Positive
May 22, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Trust I LLC, a subsidiary of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., amended its Amended and Restated Receivables Loan Agreement to expand and modify its revolving warehouse loan facility. The changes increase the faci...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hilton Grand Vacations Shareholders Approve Expanded Incentive Plan
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. stockholders approved an amendment to the company’s 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan, adding 1,250,000 shares of common stock available for equity-based awards, a move that expands the pool for long-ter...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.