Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.13B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 809.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 137.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.26
• Revenue Growth: 18.40%
• EPS Growth: -84.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,800
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 91,666,046
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 948,712
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 809,936
• PEG Ratio: -3.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.92
• 1Y Price Target: $47.60
• Price Target Upside: 4.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $49.00 ▲(7.31%Upside)

Hilton Grand Vacations shows strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, with significant growth in contract sales and EBITDA. However, the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, and technical indicators warn of a potential pullback due to overbought conditions. The company remains fundamentally strong but should address profitability challenges and valuation concerns.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow

The impact of a higher securitization percentage is expected to positively impact free cash flow by $450mm, or $700mm once fully unlocked over a two-year span.

Earnings

The company's consolidated revenue exceeded expectations, coming in at $1,284 million compared to the Street's $1,276.4 million.

Sales Reorganization

Positive news on the sales reorganization front as the majority of the changes are complete, helping drive VPG significantly higher.

Negative Factors

Costs

There are a few cost considerations, including a significant step-up in the license fee and elevated maintenance fees, which present a near-term headwind to rentals expense.

Margins

Margins are expected to be slightly lower due to various cost pressures and comparisons to previous years.

Sales Force Efficiency

The last 3 quarters have been tumultuous, with the sales force stretched in many situations, driving down close rates.

Hilton Grand Vacations Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company operates in two segments, Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management. It sells vacation ownership intervals and vacation ownership interests; manages resorts and clubs; operates points-based vacation clubs and resort amenities; and finances and services loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases. The company also manages and operates the points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange programs, and Diamond Clubs, which provide exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services to approximately 333,000 members, as well as engages in the rental of inventory made available due to ownership exchanges through its club programs. As of December 31, 2021, it had 154 properties located in the United States. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Hilton Grand Vacations generates revenue primarily through the sale of timeshare interests, also known as vacation ownership interests (VOIs). These sales occur through direct sales channels, including in-person presentations and digital platforms. Additionally, HGV earns income from recurring fees associated with the maintenance and management of its resorts, which are paid by the owners of the VOIs. The company also benefits from financing solutions it offers to customers to facilitate VOI purchases, earning interest and financing charges over time. Partnerships with the Hilton brand enhance HGV's market reach and brand recognition, contributing significantly to its sales and customer loyalty.

Hilton Grand Vacations Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hilton Grand Vacations demonstrates strong revenue growth and efficient operational management, although it faces challenges in maintaining its net profit margin. The balance sheet is robust with no debt and a moderate equity ratio, though ROE has slightly declined. Cash flows are well-managed, showing stability and effective cash conversion. Overall, the company is in a strong financial position but should focus on improving profitability metrics.

Income Statement

The company shows a strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 25.23% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is impressive at 58.41%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased to 4.50% from 7.87% in the prior year, suggesting some challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT margin stands at 12.39% while the EBITDA margin is at 14.73%, both indicating solid operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Hilton Grand Vacations has a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00, reflecting zero total debt, which is excellent for financial stability. The equity ratio is at 15.31%, indicating a moderate reliance on equity financing. The return on equity has decreased to 12.79% from 14.80% the previous year, showing a decrease in efficiency in generating profits from shareholder equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remained stable with a slight decrease compared to the previous year, but the free cash flow increased by 1.27%, indicating effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.38, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.07, reflecting adequate cash coverage for net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.97B	4.98B	3.98B	3.83B	2.33B	894.00M
Gross Profit	1.97B	1.33B	1.23B	1.27B	855.00M	152.00M
EBITDA	791.00M	733.00M	840.00M	954.00M	624.00M	-192.00M
Net Income	159.00M	47.00M	313.00M	352.00M	176.00M	-201.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.79B	11.44B	8.69B	8.00B	8.01B	3.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	259.00M	328.00M	589.00M	223.00M	432.00M	428.00M
Total Debt	0.00	7.02B	4.59B	3.85B	4.33B	1.99B
Total Liabilities	10.06B	9.55B	6.57B	5.85B	6.02B	2.76B
Stockholders Equity	1.58B	1.75B	2.12B	2.15B	1.99B	374.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	208.00M	183.00M	237.00M	650.00M	129.00M	48.00M
Operating Cash Flow	347.00M	309.00M	312.00M	747.00M	168.00M	79.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-130.00M	-1.57B	-158.00M	-97.00M	-1.63B	-33.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-317.00M	1.16B	183.00M	-782.00M	1.64B	328.00M

Hilton Grand Vacations Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 45.66
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HGV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.26, above the 50-day MA of 39.68, and above the 200-day MA of 39.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.78 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HGV.

Hilton Grand Vacations Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VAC	71 Outperform	$2.73B	13.55	9.43%	3.99%	4.61%	9.16%
MTN	71 Outperform	$6.06B	20.86	30.55%	5.45%	2.38%	6.01%
PLYA	71 Outperform	$1.66B	26.78	11.21%	―	-9.78%	7.43%
MGM	71 Outperform	$10.08B	16.81	21.38%	―	2.76%	-14.31%
HGV	70 Outperform	$4.13B	137.75	1.90%	―	18.40%	-84.43%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$16.67B	10.96	-6.97%	3.00%	1.72%	-24.21%
EVRI	62 Neutral	$1.24B	87.85	5.81%	―	-6.41%	-75.66%

Hilton Grand Vacations Corporate Events

Hilton Grand Vacations Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 7, 2025, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where several key decisions were made. Stockholders elected directors for a one-year term, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as independent auditors for the 2025 fiscal year, and approved executive compensation in a non-binding advisory vote.