Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.35B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 948.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 68.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.38
• Revenue Growth: 5.98%
• EPS Growth: -34.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,800
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 0.60
• Shares Outstanding: 85,543,090
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 857,730
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 948,988
• PEG Ratio: -1.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.28
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.06
• 1Y Price Target: $48.86
• Price Target Upside: 24.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.38
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.18B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(12.39% Upside)

Hilton Grand Vacations' strong earnings call performance, marked by record contract sales and strategic progress, is offset by financial stability concerns due to high leverage and declining revenue growth. The stock's technical indicators and valuation suggest caution, as it appears overvalued with bearish momentum.

Positive Factors

Strong Contract Sales Growth

The significant increase in contract sales indicates strong demand and effective sales strategies, which are crucial for sustained revenue growth and market position.

HGV Max Membership Growth

The growth in HGV Max memberships enhances recurring revenue streams and customer loyalty, supporting long-term business stability and expansion.

Bluegreen Integration Progress

Successful integration and cost synergies from the Bluegreen acquisition improve operational efficiency and profitability, strengthening competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can constrain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Declining Revenue Growth

A declining revenue growth rate may signal challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could affect long-term profitability and market position.

Decline in Free Cash Flow Growth

Decreased free cash flow growth limits the company's ability to fund new investments and return capital to shareholders, impacting future growth prospects.

Hilton Grand Vacations Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company operates in two segments, Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management. It sells vacation ownership intervals and vacation ownership interests; manages resorts and clubs; operates points-based vacation clubs and resort amenities; and finances and services loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases. The company also manages and operates the points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange programs, and Diamond Clubs, which provide exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services to approximately 333,000 members, as well as engages in the rental of inventory made available due to ownership exchanges through its club programs. As of December 31, 2021, it had 154 properties located in the United States. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Hilton Grand Vacations generates revenue primarily through the sale of vacation ownership interests, which allows customers to purchase a share in a vacation property. This revenue stream includes initial sales, financing options for buyers, and the resale of timeshare interests. Additionally, HGV earns income from annual maintenance fees paid by owners to cover the operating costs of the properties. The company also benefits from its membership programs, offering exclusive promotions and access to a network of resorts, which can drive customer loyalty and repeat business. Strategic partnerships with other travel and hospitality brands further enhance HGV's offerings, contributing to its revenue through cross-promotional opportunities and expanded customer reach.

Hilton Grand Vacations Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hilton Grand Vacations shows stable profitability but faces challenges with declining revenue growth and high leverage. Positive cash flow generation is overshadowed by a declining growth trend, indicating financial stability concerns.

Income Statement

Hilton Grand Vacations shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data reveals a decline in revenue growth rate by 12%, indicating a potential challenge in maintaining sales momentum. However, the company maintains a positive net profit margin of 1.76% and a gross profit margin of 40.42%, which are reasonable but have decreased from previous years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also positive, though slightly lower than past performance, suggesting stable operational efficiency despite revenue challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.26 in the TTM, reflecting significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is modest at 5.67%, showing limited profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 11.86%, highlighting a low proportion of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet suggests financial stability concerns due to high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 28.93% in the TTM, which could impact future investment capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.37, indicating moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.47, suggesting that a significant portion of net income is converted to free cash flow. While cash flow generation is positive, the declining growth rate is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.00B	4.98B	3.98B	3.83B	2.33B	894.00M
Gross Profit	2.02B	2.83B	1.23B	1.27B	855.00M	152.00M
EBITDA	708.00M	733.00M	840.00M	867.00M	500.00M	-192.00M
Net Income	88.00M	47.00M	313.00M	352.00M	176.00M	-201.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.68B	11.44B	8.69B	8.00B	8.01B	3.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	215.00M	328.00M	589.00M	223.00M	432.00M	526.00M
Total Debt	7.28B	7.02B	4.59B	3.85B	4.33B	1.99B
Total Liabilities	10.14B	9.55B	6.57B	5.85B	6.02B	2.76B
Stockholders Equity	1.39B	1.75B	2.12B	2.15B	1.99B	374.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	113.00M	183.00M	237.00M	650.00M	150.00M	48.00M
Operating Cash Flow	238.00M	309.00M	312.00M	747.00M	168.00M	79.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-161.00M	-1.57B	-158.00M	-97.00M	-1.63B	-33.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-67.00M	1.16B	183.00M	-782.00M	1.64B	328.00M

Hilton Grand Vacations Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HGV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.39, below the 50-day MA of 42.28, and below the 200-day MA of 41.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HGV.

Hilton Grand Vacations Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTN	62 Neutral	$4.92B	18.22	48.78%	6.47%	2.74%	22.37%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
HGV	60 Neutral	$3.35B	68.44	3.28%	―	5.98%	-34.77%
VAC	59 Neutral	$1.76B	11.35	7.08%	6.22%	4.18%	-13.89%
MGM	58 Neutral	$8.90B	204.33	2.25%	―	0.05%	-94.07%

Hilton Grand Vacations Corporate Events

Hilton Grand Vacations Reports Record Sales and Growth

Hilton Grand Vacations’ latest earnings call painted a picture of robust performance, with the company achieving record contract sales and notable EBITDA growth. The sentiment was overwhelmingly positive, buoyed by strategic initiatives like the HGV Max program and the successful integration of Bluegreen. Despite some challenges in the Las Vegas rental market and increased marketing expenses, the overall tone was optimistic, driven by strong sales and strategic execution.

Hilton Grand Vacations Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a leading global timeshare company and exclusive vacation ownership partner of Hilton, develops, markets, and operates high-quality vacation ownership resorts in select vacation destinations worldwide.

Hilton Grand Vacations Enters Underwriting Agreement with Apollo

On August 12, 2025, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. and affiliates of Apollo Global Management entered into an Underwriting Agreement with Wells Fargo Securities for the sale of 7,000,000 shares of common stock, with an option for an additional 1,050,000 shares, which was fully exercised on August 13, 2024. The offering, expected to close on August 14, 2025, includes a share repurchase by Hilton Grand Vacations of 933,488 shares, with no proceeds from the sale going to the company, as all shares are sold by the selling stockholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HGV) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilton Grand Vacations stock, see the HGV Stock Forecast page.