MGM Resorts (MGM)
NYSE:MGM
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MGM Resorts
(NYSE:MGM)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
▲(8.25% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is held back primarily by very high leverage and weakening 2025 profitability, despite strong cash generation. Offsetting factors include favorable technical momentum and a constructive earnings-call outlook (notably MGM China strength, BetMGM improving profitability with clear targets, and ongoing buybacks). Valuation remains a notable risk given the high P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
BetMGM turnaround and growing distributable cash
A material BetMGM EBITDA turnaround creates a durable new high‑margin cash stream for MGM via JV distributions and improves digital scale. Sustained digital growth reduces reliance on cyclical resort volumes and supports reinvestment, deleveraging, and long‑term margin expansion.
Negative Factors
Extremely high leverage and limited equity cushion
Very high net leverage materially increases refinancing, interest‑rate, and downturn vulnerability for a cyclical hospitality business. Large debt loads limit flexibility for capex and acquisitions, raise interest costs that compress net margins, and make prolonged leisure slowdowns riskier.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
BetMGM turnaround and growing distributable cash
A material BetMGM EBITDA turnaround creates a durable new high‑margin cash stream for MGM via JV distributions and improves digital scale. Sustained digital growth reduces reliance on cyclical resort volumes and supports reinvestment, deleveraging, and long‑term margin expansion.
Read all positive factors
MGM Resorts (MGM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.45B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)46.9
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth0.05%
EPS Growth-94.07%
CountryUS
Employees78,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.60
Shares Outstanding255,828,520
10 Day Avg. Volume5,264,460
30 Day Avg. Volume4,823,309
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.69
Price to Book (P/B)3.98
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio5.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda37.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.40Price Target Upside9.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.69B
MGM Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts in the United States and Macau. The company operates through three segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, and MGM Chin...
How the Company Makes Money
MGM Resorts generates revenue through multiple key streams, including gaming operations, hotel accommodations, food and beverage services, and entertainment offerings. The gaming segment is the largest contributor, where the company earns money fr...
MGM Resorts Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Operation
Shows revenue generated from various operations, offering insight into the performance of different business units and their contribution to overall growth.
Shows revenue generated from various operations, offering insight into the performance of different business units and their contribution to overall growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMGM Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong, quantifiable positives — notably a 6% consolidated revenue gain, 20% quarter EBITDA growth, a record-performing MGM China (Q4 revenue +21%, EBITDAR +31%), and a major BetMGM turnaround with clear distribution and growth targets — alongside meaningful operational and near-term headwinds concentrated in Las Vegas (Las Vegas EBITDAR down 4% in Q4), one-time renovation impacts (~$65M EBITDA hit) and ongoing digital investment losses. Management emphasized stabilization in Las Vegas, a clear pipeline of development projects on schedule, improving recurring high‑margin cash flows (MGM China branding fee and BetMGM distributions), and active share repurchases. Overall, the positives and momentum across high-margin international and digital channels and capital allocation actions outweigh the localized and partly transitory challenges in Las Vegas and certain areas of investment.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Consolidated net revenues grew 6% year-over-year; consolidated EBITDA (quarter) up 20%, reflecting diversified portfolio strength across physical and digital channels.
Negative Updates
Las Vegas Performance Headwinds
Las Vegas segment adjusted EBITDAR declined 4% year-over-year in Q4 due to earlier leisure softness and underperformance at value properties; RevPAR declines and occupancy pressures persist in parts of the Strip despite pockets of stabilization.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Consolidated net revenues grew 6% year-over-year; consolidated EBITDA (quarter) up 20%, reflecting diversified portfolio strength across physical and digital channels.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a constructive 2026 outlook driven by portfolio diversification and specific numeric targets: consolidated net revenues grew 6% in 2025 and consolidated EBITDA was up 20% in 4Q, Las Vegas EBITDAR was down 4% in 4Q but the company expects Las Vegas to return to growth in 2026 (benefiting from full‑year contributions of projects completed in 2025 after ~700–1,000 rooms/day were offline during MGM Grand’s remodel that cost roughly $65M of EBITDA in 2025), group & convention pacing is mid‑single‑digit revenue growth with mix nearer 20%, and CON/AGG is expected to approach 2023 attendance among ~140,000 attendees; BetMGM turned annual EBITDA around by nearly $470M, delivered a $135M Q4 distribution, saw monthly player volumes +24% and active player days +14%, and is guiding to $300–$350M adjusted EBITDA in 2026 (with $50M CapEx) and a $500M adjusted EBITDA target for 2027; MGM China posted Q4 net revenue +21% and segment adj. EBITDAR +31% with 16.5% Q4 market share and mid‑to‑high‑20s margins (branding fees rising from 1.75% to 3.5% implying >$50M incremental cash flow on 2025 results); MGM Digital revenue grew ~35% in 2025 with 2026 EBITDAR losses expected to be roughly half of 2025; other notable metrics include digital check‑ins +18% (check‑in time 1.5 vs 6.5 minutes), 1M digital concierge chats, a 2026 Japan funding commitment of $350–$400M (backed by a ~ $350M low‑single‑digit yen facility), 2028 Dubai tower openings and MGM Osaka on track for 2030 (≈20% foundation piles complete), corporate expense run‑rate ~$110–115M/quarter, Q4 Las Vegas hold benefit ≈$20M, $516M of Q4 buybacks (15M shares) and $1.2B repurchased in 2025 (37.5M shares, avg $32.43) while share count is down ~50% over five years.MGM Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.54B | 17.24B | 16.16B | 13.13B | 9.68B |
| Gross Profit | 7.79B | 7.85B | 7.61B | 6.47B | 4.65B |
| EBITDA | 1.72B | 2.39B | 2.40B | 4.98B | 3.41B |
| Net Income | 206.25M | 746.56M | 1.14B | 1.47B | 1.25B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 41.37B | 42.23B | 42.37B | 45.69B | 40.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.06B | 2.42B | 2.93B | 5.91B | 4.70B |
| Total Debt | 56.16B | 31.85B | 31.62B | 33.99B | 24.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 38.10B | 38.51B | 38.00B | 40.32B | 29.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.43B | 3.02B | 3.81B | 4.83B | 6.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.67B | 1.21B | 1.77B | 1.00B | 882.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.74B | 2.36B | 2.70B | 1.77B | 1.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.35B | -1.28B | -722.52M | 2.11B | 1.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.73B | -1.56B | -5.00B | -3.02B | -2.81B |
MGM Resorts Technical Analysis
Positive
36.95
Price Trends
35.48
Positive
35.01
Positive
35.19
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Negative
53.71
Neutral
57.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.23, above the 50-day MA of 35.48, and above the 200-day MA of 35.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MGM.
MGM Resorts Risk Analysis
MGM Resorts disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MGM Resorts reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MGM Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.19B | 3.78 | 91.87% | 0.84% | 5.91% | 336.91% | |
70 Outperform | $6.10B | 19.42 | 85.64% | 3.22% | 4.69% | 15.18% | |
62 Neutral | $9.45B | 46.86 | 7.55% | ― | 0.05% | -94.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $36.28B | 27.64 | 82.89% | 1.51% | 8.37% | 10.20% | |
57 Neutral | $5.38B | -9.69 | -13.18% | ― | 0.87% | 31.28% | |
54 Neutral | $10.55B | 38.12 | -90.44% | 0.80% | -0.26% | -44.45% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MGM
MGM Resorts
36.95
4.91
15.32%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
81.94
14.26
21.08%
LVS
Las Vegas Sands
54.00
14.55
36.89%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
101.13
15.88
18.63%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
26.44
-1.10
-3.99%
RRR
Red Rock Resorts
58.08
15.81
37.39%
MGM Resorts Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
MGM Resorts Approves Long-Term Compensation Package for CLO
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
On January 15, 2026, MGM Resorts International approved a new employment agreement for Chief Legal and Administrative Officer and Secretary John McManus, effective retroactively from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2029, setting his minimum a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.