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Mgm Resorts International (MGM)
NYSE:MGM
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MGM Resorts
(NYSE:MGM)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
▲(12.49% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is held back primarily by very high leverage and weakening 2025 profitability, despite strong cash generation. Offsetting factors include favorable technical momentum and a constructive earnings-call outlook (notably MGM China strength, BetMGM improving profitability with clear targets, and ongoing buybacks). Valuation remains a notable risk given the high P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent operating cash flow (~$2.53B) and solid free cash flow (~$1.46B) provide durable internal funding for capex, development projects, buybacks and debt servicing. Over 2–6 months this supports execution of growth projects and cushions cyclical revenue swings.
High‑margin MGM China growth
MGM China’s record revenue and 31% adj. EBITDAR expansion alongside a permanent branding fee increase meaningfully lifts recurring, high‑margin cash flows. This structural international strength diversifies earnings away from US Strip cyclicality over the medium term.
BetMGM profitability turnaround
BetMGM’s step change to positive EBITDA and explicit multi‑year targets indicate improving unit economics and scalable margins. As distributions grow, the digital JV becomes a recurring, less cyclical cash source that structurally strengthens consolidated cash generation.
Negative Factors
Extremely high leverage
Debt multiple near 23x equity sharply constrains financial flexibility. High absolute leverage raises refinancing, covenant and interest‑rate sensitivity for a cyclical hospitality business, limiting the company’s ability to absorb shocks or accelerate deleveraging within 2–6 months.
Compressing profitability
Rapid margin compression to ~1.2% reflects weaker operating leverage, higher interest and one‑off hits. Lower earnings quality reduces earnings resilience and impairs the company’s ability to convert revenue into surplus cash to sustainably reduce leverage or fund expansion.
Las Vegas disruption & segment weakness
Prolonged renovation disruptions and lingering leisure softness compressed Strip performance and profitability. Given Las Vegas is core to cash generation, ongoing operational drag increases cyclicality and delays margin recovery, constraining near‑term deleveraging and ROI on investments.
MGM Resorts (MGM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.97B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)47.1
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue Growth0.05%
EPS Growth-94.07%
CountryUS
Employees60,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.60
Shares Outstanding255,828,520
10 Day Avg. Volume4,177,731
30 Day Avg. Volume4,576,536
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.69
Price to Book (P/B)3.98
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio5.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda37.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.40Price Target Upside13.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.69B
MGM Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts in the United States and Macau. The company operates through three segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, and MGM China. Its casino resorts offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. The company's casino operations include slots and table games, as well as online sports betting and iGaming through BetMGM. As of February 17, 2021, its portfolio consisted of 29 hotel and destination gaming offerings. The company also owns and operates Las Vegas Strip Resorts and Fallen Oak golf course. Its customers include premium gaming customers; leisure and wholesale travel customers; business travelers; and group customers, including conventions, trade associations, and small meetings. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
How the Company Makes MoneyMGM Resorts generates revenue through multiple key streams, including gaming operations, hotel accommodations, food and beverage services, and entertainment offerings. The gaming segment is the largest contributor, where the company earns money from slot machines, table games, and sports betting. Hotel accommodations provide significant revenue through room bookings, while food and beverage sales from restaurants and bars enhance profitability. Additionally, MGM Resorts hosts a variety of entertainment events, including concerts and shows, which attract visitors and generate ticket sales. The company also benefits from loyalty programs, such as M Life Rewards, which encourage repeat business. Partnerships with various entertainment and sports organizations further enhance its offerings and attract a broader customer base, contributing to overall earnings.
MGM Resorts Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Operation
Shows revenue generated from various operations, offering insight into the performance of different business units and their contribution to overall growth.
Shows revenue generated from various operations, offering insight into the performance of different business units and their contribution to overall growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMGM Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong, quantifiable positives — notably a 6% consolidated revenue gain, 20% quarter EBITDA growth, a record-performing MGM China (Q4 revenue +21%, EBITDAR +31%), and a major BetMGM turnaround with clear distribution and growth targets — alongside meaningful operational and near-term headwinds concentrated in Las Vegas (Las Vegas EBITDAR down 4% in Q4), one-time renovation impacts (~$65M EBITDA hit) and ongoing digital investment losses. Management emphasized stabilization in Las Vegas, a clear pipeline of development projects on schedule, improving recurring high‑margin cash flows (MGM China branding fee and BetMGM distributions), and active share repurchases. Overall, the positives and momentum across high-margin international and digital channels and capital allocation actions outweigh the localized and partly transitory challenges in Las Vegas and certain areas of investment.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Consolidated net revenues grew 6% year-over-year; consolidated EBITDA (quarter) up 20%, reflecting diversified portfolio strength across physical and digital channels.
MGM China Record Performance
MGM China reported a 21% increase in fourth quarter net revenues and a 31% increase in segment adjusted EBITDAR in the quarter; achieved a 16.5% market share in Q4 and maintained over 16% for the full year (record annual market share).
BetMGM Turnaround and Momentum
BetMGM delivered a nearly $470 million annual EBITDA turnaround; monthly player volumes rose 24% and active player days increased 14% in 2025; BetMGM North America net revenues up 39% in Q4 and EBITDA improved by $176 million to $71 million in the quarter, leading to a $135 million distribution to MGM in Q4 and a path to $500 million adjusted EBITDA in 2027.
Digital and Technology Gains
Digital check-ins increased 18%, reducing average check-in time from 6.5 minutes to 1.5 minutes; 1 million digital concierge chats processed last year; MGM Digital net revenues grew 35% driven by international markets (LeoVegas, Sweden) and Brazil expansion.
Luxury and Casino Product Investments Paying Off
Luxury properties (Bellagio and ARIA) together saw a 7% increase in EBITDAR in 2025; record full-year slot win in 2025 driven by luxury offerings; successful high-limit product launches and invitation-only tournaments being repeated.
Development Pipeline On Schedule
MGM Osaka construction on track with about 20% of foundation piles completed and an on-target 2030 opening; Dubai Bellagio/ARIA/MGM Grand towers scheduled to open 3Q 2028; development timelines and budgets reported as on schedule and on budget.
Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation Strength
Raised/upsized a yen-denominated credit facility (~$350 million) at low single-digit cost to fund Japan commitments; sold Northfield Park expected H1 2026 close; repurchased 37.5 million shares in 2025 for $1.2 billion (Q4: >15 million shares for $516 million, average price $32.43), reducing share count ~50% over five years.
Recurring High‑Margin Cash Sources
Increased MGM China branding fee from 1.75% to 3.5% (effective this year), which would represent over $50 million incremental cash flow to MGM using 2025 results; BetMGM distributions adding a new recurring high-margin cash source.
Regional Operations Resilience
Regional segment delivered its best-ever fourth quarter slot win and best annual slot win in 2025; regional net revenues increased 2% in Q4 with stable EBITDAR; targeted investments (e.g., Borgata high-limit rooms) yielding positive results.
Negative Updates
Las Vegas Performance Headwinds
Las Vegas segment adjusted EBITDAR declined 4% year-over-year in Q4 due to earlier leisure softness and underperformance at value properties; RevPAR declines and occupancy pressures persist in parts of the Strip despite pockets of stabilization.
MGM Grand Renovation Disruption
MGM Grand room remodel resulted in 700 to 1,000 rooms offline per day for much of 2025 and cost approximately $65 million in EBITDA during the year, contributing to near-term Las Vegas EBITDA pressure.
Concentration of Underperformance at Value Properties
Luxor and Excalibur disproportionately impacted Las Vegas declines in the quarter; these two properties represent about 6% of Las Vegas segment adjusted EBITDAR but materially influenced the quarter's softness.
Corporate and One‑Time Items
Fourth quarter table hold was slightly above average, producing an estimated ~$20 million impact to Las Vegas EBITDA (modeling one-off); there were some unusual corporate expenses in Q4 that boosted reported corporate expense above typical run-rate ($110–$115 million per quarter).
Ongoing Digital Division Losses and Investment Needs
MGM Digital incurred losses in 2025 (though net revenues grew 35%); management expects 2026 EBITDAR to improve but remain negative (roughly half the 2025 losses), implying continued near-term investment and cash burn.
Regulatory / Tax Risk and Uncertainty
Potential adverse tax developments referenced (90% gaming loss tax deductibility) remain under monitoring and could negatively affect results if not addressed; management is engaging industry advocacy but impact remains uncertain and unquantified.
Company Guidance
Management guided to a constructive 2026 outlook driven by portfolio diversification and specific numeric targets: consolidated net revenues grew 6% in 2025 and consolidated EBITDA was up 20% in 4Q, Las Vegas EBITDAR was down 4% in 4Q but the company expects Las Vegas to return to growth in 2026 (benefiting from full‑year contributions of projects completed in 2025 after ~700–1,000 rooms/day were offline during MGM Grand’s remodel that cost roughly $65M of EBITDA in 2025), group & convention pacing is mid‑single‑digit revenue growth with mix nearer 20%, and CON/AGG is expected to approach 2023 attendance among ~140,000 attendees; BetMGM turned annual EBITDA around by nearly $470M, delivered a $135M Q4 distribution, saw monthly player volumes +24% and active player days +14%, and is guiding to $300–$350M adjusted EBITDA in 2026 (with $50M CapEx) and a $500M adjusted EBITDA target for 2027; MGM China posted Q4 net revenue +21% and segment adj. EBITDAR +31% with 16.5% Q4 market share and mid‑to‑high‑20s margins (branding fees rising from 1.75% to 3.5% implying >$50M incremental cash flow on 2025 results); MGM Digital revenue grew ~35% in 2025 with 2026 EBITDAR losses expected to be roughly half of 2025; other notable metrics include digital check‑ins +18% (check‑in time 1.5 vs 6.5 minutes), 1M digital concierge chats, a 2026 Japan funding commitment of $350–$400M (backed by a ~ $350M low‑single‑digit yen facility), 2028 Dubai tower openings and MGM Osaka on track for 2030 (≈20% foundation piles complete), corporate expense run‑rate ~$110–115M/quarter, Q4 Las Vegas hold benefit ≈$20M, $516M of Q4 buybacks (15M shares) and $1.2B repurchased in 2025 (37.5M shares, avg $32.43) while share count is down ~50% over five years.MGM Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue and operating cash flow remain solid (2025 operating cash flow ~$2.53B; free cash flow ~$1.46B), but profitability has deteriorated sharply into 2025 (net margin ~1.2%) and leverage is extremely high (debt ~$56.2B vs equity ~$2.4B, ~23x), increasing refinancing and cyclical downturn risk.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded strongly after 2020 and continued to grow through 2025, indicating solid demand. However, profitability has weakened meaningfully: net margin fell from ~7.1% (2023) to ~4.3% (2024) and ~1.2% (2025), and operating profitability also stepped down versus prior years. Gross margin remains healthy in the mid-40% range, but the sharp drop in earnings suggests higher costs, heavier interest/other charges, or a less favorable mix—making current earnings quality and momentum a key concern.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the central issue. Total debt jumped to ~$56.2B in 2025 from ~$31.9B in 2024, while equity is relatively small (~$2.4B), resulting in extremely high debt relative to equity (about 23x in 2025). Equity has also trended down from 2021 levels, reducing balance-sheet flexibility. While returns on equity were strong in 2021–2024, they have compressed in 2025 alongside lower earnings, and the elevated debt load raises refinancing and downturn-risk sensitivity for a cyclical gaming/resorts business.25
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow has been consistently positive since 2021 and improved to ~$2.53B in 2025, with free cash flow also solid at ~$1.46B and sharply higher versus 2024. That said, cash flow relative to reported earnings is not especially strong in 2025 (free cash flow below net income), and the company’s cash flow coverage versus debt remains pressured given the large leverage profile, limiting how quickly cash flow can de-risk the balance sheet.68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.54B | 17.24B | 16.16B | 13.13B | 9.68B |
| Gross Profit | 7.79B | 7.85B | 7.61B | 6.47B | 4.65B |
| EBITDA | 1.72B | 2.39B | 2.40B | 4.98B | 3.41B |
| Net Income | 206.25M | 746.56M | 1.14B | 1.47B | 1.25B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 41.37B | 42.23B | 42.37B | 45.69B | 40.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.06B | 2.42B | 2.93B | 5.91B | 4.70B |
| Total Debt | 56.16B | 31.85B | 31.62B | 33.99B | 24.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 38.10B | 38.51B | 38.00B | 40.32B | 29.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.43B | 3.02B | 3.81B | 4.83B | 6.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.67B | 1.21B | 1.77B | 1.00B | 882.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.74B | 2.36B | 2.70B | 1.77B | 1.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.35B | -1.28B | -722.52M | 2.11B | 1.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.73B | -1.56B | -5.00B | -3.02B | -2.81B |
MGM Resorts Technical Analysis
Positive
35.56
Price Trends
35.58
Negative
34.34
Positive
34.86
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Positive
50.70
Neutral
34.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.38, below the 50-day MA of 35.58, and above the 200-day MA of 34.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MGM.
MGM Resorts Risk Analysis
MGM Resorts disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MGM Resorts reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MGM Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.43B | 3.78 | 87.98% | 0.84% | 5.91% | 336.91% | |
70 Outperform | $6.49B | 19.78 | 88.84% | 3.22% | 4.69% | 15.18% | |
62 Neutral | $8.97B | 47.08 | 7.74% | ― | 0.05% | -94.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $36.99B | 23.45 | 72.73% | 1.51% | 8.37% | 10.20% | |
53 Neutral | $11.38B | 34.85 | ― | 0.80% | -0.26% | -44.45% | |
50 Neutral | $4.14B | -8.54 | -13.11% | ― | 0.87% | 31.28% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MGM
MGM Resorts
35.56
0.80
2.30%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
84.93
9.38
12.41%
LVS
Las Vegas Sands
55.07
11.27
25.74%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
107.45
18.94
21.40%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
20.77
-12.45
-37.48%
RRR
Red Rock Resorts
61.52
14.25
30.14%
MGM Resorts Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
MGM Resorts Approves Long-Term Compensation Package for CLO
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
On January 15, 2026, MGM Resorts International approved a new employment agreement for Chief Legal and Administrative Officer and Secretary John McManus, effective retroactively from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2029, setting his minimum annual base salary at $1 million and an annual target bonus equal to 150% of base salary, with any bonus above that threshold delivered as fully vested deferred restricted stock units payable over three years. The contract outlines robust equity-based compensation with annual equity grants targeted at $2.5 million from 2026 to 2029 split between performance share units and restricted stock units, detailed severance protections in cases of death, disability, termination without cause or resignation for good cause, and includes a 12‑month non-compete and ongoing confidentiality obligations, underscoring MGM’s commitment to retaining senior legal leadership and aligning his incentives with long-term shareholder value and corporate stability.
The most recent analyst rating on (MGM) stock is a Sell with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MGM Resorts stock, see the MGM Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.